Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[YoshiandToad]

You guys are nuts. It's telling that the people who are giving 40+% chance to Lip are giving her 70+% want too.

Sometimes people see what they want to see. I've noticed this on previous days too. Shantae for example was somewhat more inflated than she should of been, and Pichu, a previous veteran is given a smaller chance of returning than any of these indie characters. Crazy times.

Spoiler

K. Rool
Day missed. Absent.

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 9%, Want: 85%

Isaac
Chance: 55%, Want: 75%

Bandana Dee
Chance: 40%, Want: 100%

Captain Toad
Chance: 45%, Want: 100%

Krystal
Chance: 25%, Want: 50%

Dixie Kong
Chance: 66%, Want: 100%

Impa
Chance: 28%, Want: 100%

Shantae
Chance: 1%, Want: 5%

Inklings
Chance: 62%, Want: 70%

Rayman
Chance: 33%, Want: 90%


Day missed. Whoops.


Chance: 100%, Want: 80%

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0.3%, Want: 0%

Quote
Chance: 0.5%, Want: 3%


Chance: 5%, Want: 10%

Sceptile
Chance: 20%, Want: 55%

Wonder Red
Chance: 15%, Want: 68%

Promoted NPCs
Chance: 25%, Want: 100%

Henry Fleming:
Day missed.

Paper Mario
Chance: 30%, Want: 75%


Chance: 99%, Want: 80%

RIDLEY
Chance: 5%, Want: 48%

Chorus Men
Chance: 9%, Want: 0%

DLC Costumes
Chance: 45%, Want: 50%

Magolor
Chance: 2%, Want: 2%

Midna (and Wolf Link)
Chance: 4%, Want: 30%

Ray MK#
Chance: 8%, Want: 23%

Tetra
Chance: 20%, Want: 25%


Chance: 45%, Want: 85%

Ryu
Chance: 99%, Want: 60%

Phoenix Wright
Day missed

Lip
Chance: 5%
Sakurai may have a soft spot for her, but it hasn't been enough thus far to include her as a playable character or give her series any attention outside an item and a trophy. Does it have a musical track even? I'm not sure.

In the west Lip is an obscure character who is best known for having her game altered to feature Yoshi.
Japan would and should have the biggest fanbase for the character but they've not exactly been vocal about voting from Lip from what I've witnessed so far either.

Want: 35%
She could be a lot of fun. I adore a good puzzle game, and she's certainly got moveset potential. I'm more a passive supporter of her's, but I certainly sided with her during the retro wars on Smashboards between Takamaru and Lip(Duck Hunt Dog was my #1 want for retro, but I figured he didn't have a chance after everyone on Smashboards dismissed him. Funny how things turn out).

Simon Prediction: 8%

Nomination:
X 2
X 2
X 1

 

[Sid-cada]

Lip

Chance - 5.75% - Decent, but not terrible. While she's on Sakurai's radar, being a Japanese exclusive character definitely puts a dent in her chances. She probably won't catch much attention due to that. She's more the type to come packaged with the game than added as a bonus. I see the lip's stick as just as much a harm as it is a help.

Want - 85% - Playing with puzzles could be good. I think she'd be a fine, fun addition.


Simon Belmont Prediction - 1.23%- Konami's in the toilet, and we still have Snake to get first.


Nominations
New Palutena's Guidance Conversations X3
Anna (FE) X2

 

[Martingale]

Panel de Pwned: Lip Chances
Chance: 17%
Golly, this is a difficult one. Low chance because this character was basically rubbed out outside of Japan because of localisation. Panel de Pon reminds me of Doki Doki Panic, both snubbed in the West for a title that would bring in more cash. While you're never gonna see a Doki Doki Panic star in Smash, you'll see plenty of references to their moves: Luigi's jump height and style, Peach's vegetable plucking, and such. Lip, however, sits very weirdly on the cusp of not existing outside Japan, but Sakurai does indeed like the character and the Lip's Stick item and Lip's Theme exist in the game already. I'll be honest, back in my younger Brawl days, I thought Lip's Stick was a Kid Icarus item which goes to show how much influence she had in the west. I don't know. I guess it wouldn't be outside of the realm of possibility entirely.

Want: 12%
I'm personally not too interested in Lip being included. Yeah, I suppose the game could use a cute magical girl, and she might sell well on that factor. And it'd be nice to have a puzzle rep in the game! (But I personally have to keep my Layton faith strong...) I don't know the character and don't have a huge affinity for her therefore.

Simon Belmont Prediction: 15.637%
This is about ten times higher than a rating I'd actually give a Konami character right now. Especially one whose original design team are now creating a spiritual successor to.

5x Professor Layton votes. Lip might be cute, but this puzzle master is a real hit with the ladies.

 

[Delzethin]

Any dragons in the crowd, I recommend you keep your distance.

-♪-

Lip

Chance: 9%
Lip has a very strange history. As part of the series known as Panel de Pon, she has niche popularity in Japan and her series has (from what I've heard) a cult following. Sakurai himself is fond of her games, and she's managed references in Smash. Her signature wand has been an item since Melee, Lip herself was a sticker in Brawl, her theme got a remix in Brawl's soundtrack, and Kirby sometimes turns into a Garbage Block when he uses Stone.

By now, those of you just tuning in may be wondering what the hell Panel de Pon is, and therein lies the problem: Lip's series has never truly left Japan. Nintendo's divisions outside of Japan hesitated on localizing a game about a bunch of cute-looking fairies (and some not-so-cute bad guys, to be fair), worried it'd be too hard of a sell. You may know of Tetris Attack or Pokémon Puzzle League...the result of that.

While we won't know for sure if they made the right call, it still means that Lip is virtually unknown outside of Japan, aside from more dedicated Nintendo fans. If Sakurai hesitated on Takamaru because he didn't feel he was well known enough, how much more would he hesitate with Lip? And even worse, that obscurity is also leading to very little ballot support amongst the Western fanbase.

If that wasn't bad enough, there're also things hindering Lip's moveset potential! Her signature weapon is already an item, making it difficult to justify having her wield it and having it randomly spawn on its own in the midst of a fight. As well, any special moves involving Garbage Blocks would have to avoid resembling or acting similar to the one Kirby randomly turns into. One major and one minor aspect of hers would be all but off limits unless the developers were willing to write out one of Kirby's Stone forms or even an entire item!

Perhaps when Smash 5 comes around, she could have a greater chance...but for now, the odds are stacked against her.

Better start working on a long chain...

Want: 25%
I dunno. The whole puzzle theme could be different and kind of unique and all. She just hasn't interested me, for whatever reason.


Simon Belmont Prediction: 8.12%
A character from a company coming apart at the seems, who has to deal with a previous representative with a dedicated support base and that happens to be MIA? Quite the curse to have to overcome.


Nominations:
Geno x4
Concept: Alpha-Form Stages x1

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Lip change:20%
The fact that sakurai knows and like the character helps a lot.But that's about it She not known well in the west and her series as of now has no future plus this is DLC so yeah

Lip want:70%

A REAL puzzle character in smash could be cool and she looks so adorible give me give me give me

Simon Belmont prediction: 14%

Slippy x2
Captain syrup x3

 

[A10theHero]

Lip
Chance: 15%
+First-party
+Female
+Sakurai likes the series
+/- Lip's Stick is an item in the game. I don't know how important it is to the series, but would it be a lacking homage to the series if Lip's moveset did not include use of this item?
~- Not really relevant
~-Popularity somewhat restricted outside of Japan
-Not a popular ballot choice

Want: 90%

Prediction:
Simon says...7.5%
Nomination: Spyro the Dragon [x5]

 

[Smasher 101]

Lip's chances: 5%
Want: 70%

Simon Belmont prediction: 11.84%

Squirtle x5

I should be able to go back to my more detailed-ish reasoning on Simon's day, and I'll try to do Lip and Wright too to make up it

 

[ES. Dinah]

Lip

Chances: 10%

I'm honestly not even sure about her character. All I know is that her item is called lip stick and she is from a Japan only game. As I am not well acquainted with her, I'm going to have to give her a low score right now. I don't think she is as popular as people suggest she is. Sakurai likes her so there is that! I'm not really sure what she would do besides use her stick and we already have it as an item in the game. I guess she can have a specific playstyle geared to doing poison damage or something.

Want: 10%

She seems like a really cool character but I don't know much about her. I'm not sure how she would work so I can't rate her highly in this category.

Nominations: KOS-MOSX5

 

[FancySmash]

Lip - Sealed Shut

Chance: 20% - She's an oddball to consider I'll give her that. When Jigglypuff got no fairy changes to accompany it's new type, perhaps they were saving them for Lip? I don't think that's necessarily the case. As mentioned numerous times already, Lip is unrecognizable in the US. That didn't stop Fire Emblem however in Melee, but perhaps that was due to Fire Emblem being modern. Sakurai does like the series, so lets see what he decides, eh?

Want: 50% - I'm indifferent. The Ice Climbers got their chance in Melee, and I've grown to love the little guys, really upset they didn't reappear in this game. However, I feel that our retro rep went to Duck Hunt already, also a really cool character. A puzzle moveset would be interesting, and I would like to see how they handle it.

Prediction: Simon Belmont eh? I think Snake might have a few choice words for him, . He is liked though, so 30% doesn't seem unlikely...

Nominations:
Chibi-Robo X3
Meowth X2

 

[Pureownege75]

Lip
Chance: 5%
I think it's pretty safe to say that if you are a region exclusive character, you need to be a big deal to get ito Smash (Marth, Lucas, etc). From what I understand, Lip is not only Japan only, but pretty obscure, similar to Takamaru, who was denied entry for that very reason. She's had an item represented in the games for a while now, but that's really not enough to get her in, and i doubt she's getting the votes needed to convince Sakurai to put her in.

Want: 25%
I know almost nothing about her, but I'm all for it. I'd rather have a brand new series represented, than an old series getting a character that it arguably doesn't need

Simon Belmont Prediction: 2.67%

Nominations
RH Character x3
Themed Stage Packs x2

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lip
Chance: 1% - The fact that Nintendo has gone out of their way to rebrand the franchise every time it comes overseas (Tetris Attack and Pokemon Puzzle League) just shows that they have little faith they have in Lip's marketability. She doesn't even appear to have that much support in Japan either where Arle Nadja of Puyo Puyo seems to be the preferred cute puzzle game girl.
Want: 30% - She may yet win me over.

Simon Belmont prediction: 6%

Nominations: DLC Music Pack x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[A Distant Demon]

Thread in a nutshell tomorrow
(Aka 20min)

 

[colder_than_ice]

LIP
CHANCE: 14.78%
WANT: 49.76%​

Lip managed to pull off a pretty mediocre score. Next up we're rating Simon Belmont and predicting what Daisy will get tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

Simon Belmont

If Smash 4 were to receive a Konami character other than Solid Snake, it would most certainly be Simon Belmont. This whip-wielding vampire hunter is the original and most iconic protagonist of the company’s popular (or at least it used to be) and (for the most part) critically acclaimed Castlevania franchise, which started on NES back in 1986. Since then, this vast series has appeared on several Nintendo platforms including NES, SNES, N64, Wii, and all of the handhelds, most of the games on those systems being exclusive. There were some exceptions such as Castlevania Bloodlines and Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, but overall, the series had a solid track record with Nintendo…until the reboot happened.

Castlevania: Lords of Shadow was released in 2010 for PS3 and Xbox 360 and later ported to PC in 2013. It became the best-selling Castlevania game of all time, spawning a sequel for the same platforms in 2014 as well as a somewhat minor side game for 3DS in the previous year, the keywords being “MINOR SIDE GAME.” Neither of the main entries has ever graced a Nintendo platform.

On top of that-

“SHORYUKEN!!!”

OW! Okay Ryu, you haven’t done much with Nintendo as of late either, but you still are important to their history just like Simon is. To be fair however, Capcom in general has put more effort into supporting Nintendo than Konami has in recent years, not to mention that Capcom already has a Smash 4 representative in the form of Mega Man. Heck, Konami has yet to release anything for Wii U that isn’t a straight port of an NES, SNES, or GBA game. Capcom at least attempted to support the struggling console with a few of their major titles before giving up. Currently, it seems like Capcom is on better terms with Nintendo than Konami is.

Anyway, where was I before Ryu uppercut me? Now I remember. On top of the series’ lack of Nintendo relevance lately, both Lords of Shadow 2 and the side game underperformed compared to their predecessor in the sales department, so the Castlevania franchise seems to be dead outside of the Virtual Console. Do these re-releases mean much? Well, look at the Mega Man franchise, which has received almost nothing but Virtual Console ports in the past half of a decade, yet the Blue Bomber is playable in Smash 4 regardless. To Mega Man’s credit, his demand was certainly much higher than Simon’s ever was.

Right now, Simon’s biggest hurdles are the recent events involving Konami themselves in my opinion. First they might be falling out with Kojima, then Silent Hills gets cancelled, and now they’re going through restructuring. They even delisted themselves from the New York Stock Exchange. Their only upcoming home console release (aside from soccer) seems to be Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain, which is near completion. After that, their main focus will be the mobile gaming market. Is Sakurai even willing to ask them for any of their licenses (including Metal Gear and Solid Snake) at this point? Does Nintendo want anything to do with them anymore?

Chance: Negligible (Approximately 0%)

If we re-rated Snake, then I would have given him the exact same score. I have lost nearly all my faith in that company getting any sort of representation in Smash 4.

Want: 100%

Konami’s current situation is unfortunate partially because I like Castlevania and would be thrilled to see that universe represented in Smash. The iconic vampire hunter’s moveset has the potential to be at least somewhat unique thanks to his use of the whip, and I would be especially pleased if he coincided with additional content such as music remixes and trophies inspired by his series. How can I say no to his inclusion? Hands down, Simon Belmont is my most wanted third party character not featured in Smash 4. Is he the most deserving? No, but neither is Ryu, and neither was Snake back when he appeared in Brawl.

Oh well. On the bright side, there’s Miriam, the protagonist of former Castlevania series producer Koji Igarashi’s upcoming spiritual successor called Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night.

“Um…King, I’d hate to break it to you, but that game won’t be available on a Nintendo platform.”

****!

Prediction: Daisy - 10%

Nomination: Zael x5

 

[A Distant Demon]

Simon belmont. Slayer of the impaler.

Chance
.05%
poor guy is stuck in 3rd party issues. With konami going all over the place snake himself is going to have issues let alone a belmont. And thats not counting any compwtition bomberman may bring as well. So we would have to get 2 3rd party characters as dlc from the same company that is also kind of imploding while someone else is starting a kickstarter to revive the franchise in spite of konami. . . Not the best record for the cross slinging (whip)lasher.

Want 70% never played a castlevania game. Ever. But damn if those games dont make things look cool. The only whip based character i would be ok with that isnt wonder red.

Prediction 35%

Noms
2 Dark samus
2 waluigi
1 4th mii class

 

[sogeki]

CRACK THAT WHIP
Chance: 0%. He isn't happening. He is not that highly recommended, and he is a third party character. Sorry.
Want: 78%. I love Castlevania.

Daisy Prediction: 32%.

Nominations: ninten x4
etika x1

 

[Roaring Salsa]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 1%
Third party hailing from Konami. Two big issues right away.

Want: 65%
His whip and holy weapons would give him a pretty creative moveset, plus Bloody Tears has to be one of the best video game tracks ever created. However, there are some third parties I'd like to see before Simon, even though a Captain N reunion would be pretty sweet.

Nominations:
Monita x5

 

[Leafeon523]

I gotta stop forgetting to post... anyway,

Simon Says:

Chance: .5%
Konami can't seem to do anything right these days. R.I.P Silent Hill.

Want: 20%
I have no real attachment to him.

Nominating 6+ dlc characters x3
KOS-MOS x2

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Pureownege75 gets the extra nominations for Lip's day.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 1%

...really says something that this is one of the highest chance ratings for him so far...
He's got the same Konami issues as Snake, without the pull of being a veteran. He's got the same no-request issues that current NPCs have, without being easily portable to playable. Basically, he's got nothing.
​

Want: 0%

Too many fish in a small pond. And too many 1st parties or vets I'd want instead. May be a cool moveset with the whip, but Ivy from Soul Calibur is better for that - not that she has a snowball's chance either
​

Daisy: 25.0%

Nominations:

​

 

[AreJay25]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 2%
With Konami going down in flames, as well as their franchises, it seems more and more unlikely that we'll be seeing a rep from them anytime soon.

Want: 65%
I'd prefer Snake or Bomberman as the Konami rep, but Simon would be pretty cool too.

Prediction
Daisy: 10%
Oh boy.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

What a terrible night to have a curse...

Simon Belmont Chances: 4%
I think if Snake were to comeback as DLC, and if the new rule allows for third parties to have up to 2 characters at a time, I can see Simon being playable. But the main priority for Konami representation in Smash Bros at the moment is Snake, but Konami's undergone a dramatic company restructure, which may make it difficult for Snake and Simon.

Wants: 57%
My experience in Castlevania comes from Super Castlevania on the SNES Virtual Console. Simon would be interesting to see in the game, but I think Snake should come back before Simon is made playable.

Nominations:
Ghirahim X5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Simon Belmont Chance:
1%
Yeah after what happened with Konami and watching several videos regarding the company, despite the merits Castlevania has, Konami's recent move kills his chances almost entirely.

Simon Belmont Want:
5% Little connection to Castlevania.

Daisy Prediction:
5.686%
Yeah, I gotta think about this.

Nominations:
x5 Young Link

 

[Champ Gold]

Hit the music

Simon Belmont.

Chance:3 weeks ago, if you would had asked me this, I'll believe he was a shoo-in for Smash 5 But 45% for now but after what's going on with Konami, I can't go higher than 10%. I really hope I'm wrong because got in with all of his problems with Capcom and even then Falcon is cool and willing, Konami barely cares and considering what is happening, it hurts.


Want: 100%
Man, you gotta see this when looking for iconic characters for Smash we got and soon Ryu but Simon completes it. With becoming less whip based, we need a replacement and the replacement is big time. U love some Castlevania and Simon would be incredible along with Trevor and homie Ritcher Belmont as Alts. Plus with holy water, crosses, daggers and item crash for his final smash, he's got the perfect and definite moveset ready to go.

The people want Simon and hopefully Nintendo pulls the series from its possible dead ashes.


Nominated: Starman (NES Wrestling) x3
Isa (Sin & Punishment)

 

[Aetheri]

Whooo TSHHHH!!

Simon Belmont

Chance: 2%
Simon Belmont is konami property first of all...we all know the situation with Snake, and it is not likely we will be seeing the super spy return let alone another character entirely...Although Simon Belmot is from a rather iconic gaming series...we're talking about one half of the Metroidvania styled gaming here. So that has to count for something right (I added 1% on top of just 1% for that), well not really all that great still, because once again things need to be patched up with Konami first and if that happens Snake will have priority, if that happens then that will likely be two third party characters for DLC...Not saying it won't happen but I think there are better options if we are getting a third third party party (herdy der) character for DLC...such as one from Namco or Sega possibly...

----

Want: 20%
Never played Castlevania all that much. I guess he'd be kinda cool....Although, I already have my ZSS to satisfy my whipping needs....uhhh...I mean...I will gladly use ZSS's whip for...wait a sec...I can whip stuf....I can't recover from this mess, can I? I'll just stop talking...

----

Prediction: 0% 11.5%
Daisy
oh boy...

----

Nominations:
Dark Samus x5
aka NOT whipping stuff...

 

[Erimir]

Simon Belmont

He'd be one of my top choices. He's iconic, a great representative of the classic NES era + a string of quality titles on the GBA/DS, he has tons of move set potential and plenty of interesting things that can be done with his main weapon, the whip.

He seems reasonably popular on the Western Ballot, but not top ten material by any means. I doubt he's much more popular in Japan.

Beyond all that, he has a few big roadblocks. First is that Konami and Nintendo don't have a great relationship at the moment, and second is that if Konami were going to get a rep, it would probably be Snake. Thirdly, the series is in a dormant/decline period. Maybe Konami could bring it back a little bit by releasing another title on the 3DS that tries to bring back the positive elements of the previous entries. Maybe. But that's just a future possibility, nothing that will help Simon now.

So unfortunately, I have to rate him... quite low.

Simon Belmont chances: 0.1%
What a horrible night to have a curse... of being a Konami character.

Simon Belmont want: 100%
Castlevania 2: Simon's Quest is a frustrating and confusing game in many ways, but it was one of my earliest video games and pretty fun nonetheless. Then Symphony of the Night came along and cemented Castlevania as one of my favorite classic series.

Plus, Simon's Quest spawned one of the best video game tracks ever:

Daisy Prediction: 12%
*shrug*

Nominations:
Ivysaur x5

 

[Troykv]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 0.5%

I usually don't give rates so low... but... We have one problem... and a Big One: Konami... What the hell this company think?... Who knows...

Want: 70%

He have a lot of weapons to work and can be fun to use xDD

Prediction: Daisy

Chance: 20%
Want: 25% (She looks like will be hated a lot)

Nominations:

Micaiah x3
Tiki x1
Kos-mos x1

 

[smileMasky]

Simon Belmont
Chance .01%
omg with Konami now all but dead this is just bad. I am hoping for a miracle to save the IP's from the ****ty practice of micro-transactions. it saddens me to see a lot of game companies do this practice and a lot of gamers pay them anyways. but enough ranting. I just now see this as never going to happen*

Want 40%
when I was younger I did want this guy in ssb though my tastes changes every single instalment.

Nomination
Ninten x 5

Predictions
Daisy 28.67%

 

[StormC]

Man, I forgot about the state of Konami when I predicted Simon Belmont for 10%.

Spoiler

1. K. Rool: 75%/100%
2. Banjo-Kazooie: 10%/70%
3. Isaac: 60%/40%
4. Bandana Dee: 50%/25%
5. Captain Toad: 25%/15%
6. Krystal: 25%/15%
7. Dixie Kong: 50%/50%
8. Impa: 50%/40%
9. Shantae: 15%/40%
10. Inklings: 55%/40%
11. Rayman: 30%/40%
12. Snake: 40%/70%
13. Wolf: 85%/60%
14. Shovel Knight: 20%/40%
15. Quote: 15%/45%
16. Ice Climbers: 10%/35%
17. Sceptile: 20%/50%
18. Wonder Red: 20%/35%
19. Promoted NPCs: 5%/Abstain
20. Henry Fleming: 15%/15%
21: Paper Mario: 30%/20%
22. Roy: 95%/0%
23. Ridley: 5%/80%
24. Chorus Kids: 25%/35%
25. DLC Alternate Costumes: 75%/75%
26. Magalor: 15%/30%
27. Midna/Link: 1%/5%
28. Ray: 20%/35%
29. Tetra: 20%/20%
30. Pichu: 15%/0%
31. Ryu: 90%/30%
32. Phoenix Wright: 15%/55%
33. Lip: 15%/35%

Chance: 5%. Yeah, Konami's current state of affairs makes this damn near impossible. As far as third parties go, Belmont is middling at best in popularity.

Want: 30%. The Belmonts are pretty meh characters overall. Give me Dracula any day.

Daisy prediction: 10%

 

[Nintendotard]

Simon Belmont:
Chance - 3%
- Personally I don't know too much about the character, but the problem with Konami seems like a dead end for this guy. Overall, if Konami let them bring a character back, they'd probably just bring Snake, update his look, and keep his moveset the same.

Want - 0%
- There's only one other 3rd Party character I want and its not this guy

Predictions:
Daisy - 27% (if Lip got that high for being an obscure character in the chance department, I feel like Daisy can at least double it)

Nominations:

Rhythm Heaven rep x3
Crash Bandicoot x2

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

You want to know what's funny? I've just got done playing Vs. Castlevania earlier this day before we would eventually rate Simon. Without further adieu, let's finish this before Death makes things more difficult.

*Mad Forest plays*

Simon Belmont

Chance: 5%
Simon Belmont is the start of a franchise that arguably pioneered the Metroidvania series of platformers and it is Konami's second biggest IP's in history. Not only he is an iconic character that had been featured in many classic video game media, but he is the first known member of the Belmont Clan that would star in every subsequent title in the series (Richter, Sonia, Trevor, Julius, ect.). There are few issues like the fact that many would prefer Solid Snake to be in and that his ballot support is small in comparison to the indies and Banjo. While the possibly of two Konami reps is small, but who says that it can;t happen. But unfortunately Konami's dance with Death himself would eventually lead them to be reincarnated into a mobile business like what happened with a certain silver haired man (Soma Cruz). In other words, any Konami character (even old Belmont) can't happen due to the state of the company at the moment.

Want: 90%
Castlevania is my all time favorite franchise from Konami (Efen more than Frogger and Metal Gear) and it is sad to see the series get so terrible after all these years. I've been wanting Simon to be a fighter for all these years and his usage of your average vampire killing gear would make hims stand out. Also, there's the potential Captain N reunion with Mega Man and Pit.

Prediction: 10%
Let's face it, the salt and hatred can been seen from a mile away. But not that it matters since it is unavoided in any video game fandom.

Nominations:
Monita x5
That's right, the queen of Nintendo Land deserves her own personal day in the future.

 

[MatvaradoxD]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 4%
Ballot will probably help but he's 3rd party and if Ryu's in then I don't think Sakurai will make any more exceptions.

Want: 0%
Never played Castlevania and would want other characters before him.

Prediction
Daisy Chance: 30%

Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

 

[Delzethin]

What a horrible night to have a curse.

...What? I wasn't going to not say it. >_>

-♪-

Simon Belmont

Chance: 6%
The legendary vampire hunter may be a dead man walking. Konami is going down the tubes, and any Smash collaboration is looking less likely by the day. With such dire condition, even Snake's chances have arguably fallen, much less a Konami character that doesn't have veteran status to fall back on. I honestly wouldn't be surpised if the company folded within two years' time...but that's a different story. The fact that Konami is falling apart, on top of their strained relationship with Nintendo as of late, is a painful one-two punch.

Making matters worse is Simon's low support. It seems he's fallen off people's radars, with the third party support so far going to the veteran Snake or to whichever third party characters have the spotlight at the moment. In a self-fulfilling prophecy, he could end up having no chance because not enough people think he has enough of a chance to be worth nominating.

It's kind of a shame, too, considering how much he'd have going for him otherwise. As the face of Castlevania prior to Symphony of the Night, Simon was almost as big a gaming icon of the 80s and early 90s as Mega Man was. In addition, he'd bring a level of uniqueness to the roster as the wielder of the Vampire Killer whip, a weapon type we've seen little of and even less now that Sheik's side special has changed and Zero Suit Samus got herself some rocket boots. His special attacks would even carry over perfectly from his games! A neutral special that has him lob an axe in that classic upward arc? Throwing knives or cross boomerangs as his side special? Holy water for his down special? It works so well!

Considering the circumstances, though, odds are it'll be for naught. For this hero of a bygone era to make it, it'd take something as crazy as, say, Konami folding, Nintendo grabbing the Castlevania IP, and Simon riding the wave of support he'd suddenly gain far enough to have a legitimate chance.

Want: 50%
I'm actually more interested in this guy than Snake. I bet that's an unpopular opinion. I feel like he'd fit in pretty damn well among the characters we have, and combined with a unique weapon type and tailor-made B moves, he'd bring the right amount of old-school flair.


Daisy Prediction: 13.75%
Another one bound to be all over the place...although I bet the Want scores will be more polarizing than the Chance ones...


Nominations:
Geno x4
Concept: Alpha-Form Stages x1


By the way, @ colder_than_ice : If Squirtle and Ivysaur stay this close to each other in the rankings, I think it'd be a good idea to cover them both on the same day. It's one of those situations where a twofer would make sense.

 

[Nintendotard]

By the way, @ colder_than_ice : If Squirtle and Ivysaur stay this close to each other in the rankings, I think it'd be a good idea to cover them both on the same day. It's one of those situations where a twofer would make sense.

I second this notion

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

The Cap'n of Hotcakes' life is starting to encroach into his free time. Being quite the sociable and responsible man. Gonna get this vote out early then.


WHAT A TERRIBLE TIME FOR A RATING!

Spoiler: Captain Hotcakes's Ratings History (as of 5/16/15)

Character Chance Ratings

1: Ryu - 97.7%
1: Roy - 97.7%
2: Wolf - 97.5%
3: Rayman - 60%
4: Snake - 55%
5: Inkling - 50%
6: Sceptile - 45%
6: Krystal - 45%
7: Paper Mario: 44.5%
8: Dixie Kong - 43%
9: Wonder Red - 40%
10: Impa - 40.5%
11: Simon Belmont - 35%
12: Ice Climbers - 30%
12: Captain Toad - 30%
13: Chorus Kids - 27.5%
14: Magolor - 25%
15: Henry Fleming - 25.7%
16: Quote - 21.5%
17: Phoenix Wright - 20%
17: Shovel Knight - 20%
18: Shantae - 20.5%
19: Tetra - 20.3%
20: Midna & Wolf Link - 10%
21: Lip - 10.5%
22: Ray - 5%
23: Pichu - 5%
24: Ridley - 5.5%

Character Want Ratings

1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Simon Belmont - 90.5%
2: Sceptile - 90.5%
3: Shantae - 87%
4: Wonder Red - 86.5%
5: Snake - 85%
5: Impa - 85%
6: Magolor - 85.5%
7: Ice Climbers - 80%
8: Chorus Kids - 80.5%
9: Ryu - 60%
9: Paper Mario: 60%
10: Midna & Wolf Link - 60.5%
11: Phoenix Wright - 55%
12: Ridley - 50%
13: Inkling - 30%
14: Henry Fleming - 30.5%
15: Rayman - 25%
16: Quote - 23%
17: Krystal - 20%
17: Dixie Kong - 20%
18: Tetra - 20.5%
19: Roy - 10.5%
20: Lip - 5.7%
21: Captain Toad - 5.5%
22: Ray - 4.5%
23: Pichu - 1%

Concept Chance Ratings

1: DLC Alternate Costumes - 85%
2: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 65.7%

Concept Want Ratings
1: DLC Alternate Costumes - 100%
2: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 50.5%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac
Bandana Dee

Abtsains (Indifference)

n/A

RATINGS


Simon Belmont

Chance - 35%: For the face of one of the most prominent retro game franchises in history, Simon Belmont has a lot of odds stacked against him.

The Castlevania franchise is just about Mega Man levels of iconic. Both games were heavy-hitters on retro Nintendo systems and have pioneered some of the most influential game designs ever. I would be shocked if at least your average gamer didn't hear about Castlevania before. With street cred like that, I find it hard to imagine Simon's plausibility of being in Smash is a far shot. I mean, if Project M's Dracula's Castle is anything to go by, he's a name that has remained in the Smash fandom for years.

Much like Mega Man, Castlevania games have only seen Virtual Console releases and a minor series of spin-off games that seem to divide the fanbase. The Castlevania series, yet alone Simon himself, have yet to make another original appearance on a Nintendo platform aside from that one abysmal fighting game spinoff. Ehyuckl I question whether or not this will even amount to much given Mega Man's current predicament with Capcom being extremely inverse to his demand.

The barbarian bane of vampires has his biggest threat with his own company: Konami. Konami's been getting overwhelming amounts of negative press lately, with the Hideo Kojima leaving fallout, Silents Hills PSN removal & cancellation, MGSV undergoing a project staffing shift, console deprioritization in favor of mobile, and a heavy business restructuring comprise Konami's dubious role in the games industry as of now. In the case of Solid Snake being the first Konami character ever featured in Smash, Simon's chances are unaffected if if Ryu's anything to go by.

Konami hasn't actively supported the 3DS or Wii U with new projects over ports. They certainly haven't maintained anything remotely beneficial to either of their businesses.This will likely make the process of securing licenses to use the Castlevania IP even more stressful. It's also worth noting that Sakurai and Kojima may have a degree of nepotism between each other. So I am not certain he'd be so keen on dealing with the company that jilted his friend with a demotion and who's career status remains mysterious at this time.

Through the Smash Ballot, we can only hope that Simon could have an easier time making his name one of the more fiercer 3rd party nominees. Unfortunately, it seems that his fan support is largely diminished across the board. I guess Simon has seen better days. We can only hope more are on their way.

Want - 90.5%: You know, I never really supported Simon more than I lauded him. In fact, my only experience with Castlevania is watching my brother's friend play a couple levels of some NES & SNES games in front of me. It's one of those series that leaves me with detachment that's obligatory for reparation through my backlog.

Yet I acknowledge how big of a Nintendo all-star he is! I'd be hella hyped if Simon was in Smash! His entire series brings tons upon tons of material ripe for moveset fodder! Simon's got a lot of uniqueness in the bag with his trusty whip, holy water, cross boomerangs, daggers, etc. He'd provide a nice Gothic barbarian foil to Smash and would bring a lot of utility with the many uses his whip seen through the series.

PREDICTION

Daisy

Chance - 14.35%
Want - 11.230%

"He-he-he's pushing up daisies!" -Spongebob Squarepants

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x2
*Concept: Smash 5 has 10 Year Wait Cycle x2
*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x1

 

[FancySmash]

Simon Belmont - Today's bloody rating

Chance: 15% - Let us not forget, Snake is still out in the open. I'd assume we'd get him back first before we start adding from another series. Afterwards however, it depends on how things work out. With Capcom essentially getting two reps, there isn't a reason for Konami not to get two, so it's a definite possibility.

Want: 30% - I really don't care if he get's in or not. I'm not a Castlevania fan, and I'd prefer to get a veteran (Snake) in before getting a replacement 3rd party character from the company. Would I be absolutely upset if Belmont made it in though? Nah, not really.

Predictions: Daisy: 23% - Yes sir, Princess of Sarasaland. I have to say, I've always felt bad for Daisy. Only ever getting spin-off appearances, and then Rosalina all of a sudden shows up in one game, and is already starting to get more attention than Daisy...

Nominations:
Meowth X3
Chibi Robo X2

 

[Rockaphin]

Simon Belmont:

Chance: 10%

Want: 70%

Nominations:
Concept Full Ken Alt x5

 

[Deleted member]

Chances are pretty low inevitably, but if stuff turns out to be for the best mr. Belmont can make it.

Do i want this guy? Despite never really getting a good scoop on Castlevania, i actually would like to see this whip warrior do battle.

 

[JBRPG]

Simon Belont:

Chance: 10%

Want: 10%

Daisy Prediction: 22%

Nomination: Monita x 5

 

[NintenRob]

I'll keep this short

Simon
Chance: 0.87%
Want: 0.105%

Nominate: Eye bug fix x5

Prediction: daisy 4%