Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Chance: 5%
Already an Assist Trophy? Check.
Twilight Princess is deemed irrelevant because of Skyward Sword and the upcoming Zelda U? Check.
Chances of any promotions for any AT or NPC are low? Check.
The lack of Hyrule Warriors content in Smash makes the addition of any other LoZ character ambiguous? Check.
Final Verdict: A snowball's chance in hell.

Want: 20%
Love Twilight Princess and Midna, but I'd rather have the likes of Impa or Lana over those two.

Ray Prediction: 15%
While he does have Japanese support and he's no longer an Assist Trophy, he's probably going to need some Isaac levels of ballot votes in order to really make it through.

Nominations: Princess Dasiy x 5

 

[Woohoo982]

Chances:
An assist Trophy?Check(-20%)
Old game(CANON game,Hyrule Warriors doesn't count)?Check.(-40%)
Competition from series(Yuga,Impa)?Check(-40%)
Verdict:0% Chance

Want-0%
I didn't play twilight princess ;-;

Nominations
Galleom x4
Isaac x1

 

[Scamper52596]

Midna & Wolf Link
Chance: 1.9%
Not likely to happen. Despite Midna being an Assist, which many already have brought up so I won't elaborate on it, she's only been in one Zelda game (No, Hyrule Warriors doesn't count). Said Zelda game is almost a decade old, and unless Midna makes an appearance in a future Zelda game I'm not expecting any more one time Zelda characters to become playable. Sheik is probably going to be the only exception. Besides, Sheik is Zelda and played a role in what is still the most critically acclaimed game of all time. I think she's earned her spot on the roster. Unfortunately for Midna, it's going to take a little more effort for Sakurai to deem her acceptable as a playable representative for the Zelda roster. I'll give the Twilight Princess a chance of 1.9%.
As soon as she makes another appearance in a future Zelda title...

Want: 8%
Midna is a cool character with a unique concept and while I'd take her over Impa, I think her role as an Assist is perfect for her.

Prediction - Ray: 9.9%

Nominations:
x5 Tetra

 

[Bebe Mignon]

MIDNA & WOLF LINK
Chance: 5%
Want: 30%

RAY
Prediction: 2.75%

NOMINATION
Elma x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Working my way home after a trip. Gonna make this one fast to make sure it gets in on time.
Midna & Wolf Link
Chance- 0.75%
Want- 15%

Twilight Princess has come and gone, and Midna is an assist trophy. Sorry, don't see this one happening.

Ray Predictions- 22.1%

Nominations:
Lip x5

 

[Amiiben]

• As my first post I will rate midna & wolf link Chance-0% Assist Trophy Want-5% I never played a Zelda game so whatever Wart x5

 

[MatvaradoxD]

Midna & Wolf Link
Chance: 5%
Being reduced to an assist trophy kills her chance. I thought Girahim could be playable but even he didn't end up being a candidate so looking at it this way makes me think she's not even close to being a priority on Sakurai's list.

Want: 20%
She's an interesting character and I enjoyed Twilight Princess but I've been wanting Impa for a while now. Especially seeing her in Hyrule Warriors.

Predictions:
Ray
- Chance: 28%
- Want: 42%

Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

 

[Erimir]

Midna & Wolf

+ One of the more unique move set options
+ One of the most popular Zelda candidates. She may or may not be the most popular though. I'm skeptical that, say, Impa is a more popular choice among casuals.
+ Many of her rivals have more problems than her
+ Could be a generic wolf, rather than Wolf Link, as done in Hyrule Warriors. In which case she'd just be "Midna" on the CSS

- If they're more faithful, it'd mean a third Link
- Already an AT
- We are quite likely not to get a Zelda newcomer at all, none of them rank super high in polls I've seen. Zelda is pretty well-represented, which is probably why it's getting fewer votes. This is a big negative.
- Aside from Zelda being well-repped probably driving the (relatively) low demand for a Zelda character, the devs may also think Zelda doesn't need it. If a Zelda rep were topping the ballot, that probably wouldn't matter. But they might have to think Zelda did need it in order to skip down the ballot to pick a Zelda character.

Midna & Wolf chances: 0.6%
Unfortunately, I just don't see Zelda characters coming up high on the ballot. I'd love a Beast Ganon, or Impa, or Midna; they'd all be pretty cool. Even Tingle or Vaati could be cool. But realistically, there seems to be little demand for it, and many of the Zelda options already being in the game in some form doesn't help at all.
Midna & Wolf want: 73%
I think it would be cool, but there are higher priorities for me.

Ray predictions: 20%
I dunno what people are thinking. People will rate him relatively high because he's the main character of his series.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[ES. Dinah]

Midna and wolf link

Chances: 2%

Midna is already an assist trophy so I really can't see it happening in this game. Ghirahim didn't get in so I'm not sure why Midna would get in. That being said... she would be a lovely fighter standalone or with wolf link.

Want: Midna: 50% wolf link: 10%

I am going to be brief but Midna's adult form would be amazing.

Nominations: KOS-MOS X5.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Midna & Wolf Link
Chance: 1% - Sakurai seems to have no interest in including Zelda characters outside the Triforce trio. Midna also has not done particularly well in the polls and it's doubtful that she'll ever appear in another main series Zelda game. I'm also sceptical that we're going to see any NPCs get promoted.
Want: 90% - I would love to see them in.

Ray prediction: 11%

Nominations: DLC music pack x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

MIDNA & WOLF LINK
CHANCE: 3.41%
WANT: 32.48%​

The Twilight Princess duo gets the lowest chance rating we've ever had on this game, too bad. Next up we're Ray from the Custom Robo series. Also please predict what rating Tetra will get tomorrow.

 

[Serell]

All right! It's Ray's time to shine! If you are unfamiliar with this character, please get yourself familiar. Custom Robo is truly a hidden gem, and if you never played it before... you need to play it. I recommend Custom Robo for the Gamecube. Also, please watch this epic Custom Robo intro, so you can see how awesome Ray is:

And please read this excerpt from a wonderful post from the wonderful @The One Who Wrote This in the wonderful Custom Robo support thread (http://smashboards.com/threads/custom-robo-discussion-thread-vote-ray-for-smash.325155/page-20) :

"Just did a Google Translate of that site (http://www.noise-games.com/essay/essay_15.html). Here's what I could take from it.

• They talk about trophies and how they managed to get some Custom Robo trophies in Melee (Melee is DX in Japan).
  
  
• They talk about Sheriff (the arcade game) and how the writer of the blog has played the game so much that he got a score of around 100 trillion (probably an exaggeration). Basically, the blogger kinda likes Sheriff.
  
  
• When they heard that Melee was being made by Masahiro Sakurai of HAL Labs, Noise wanted to include a character from Custom Robo in the game.
  
  
• The blogger thought that the N64 model of a robo was good. Modelling was worked on and it was found out that the model made had 20 times as many polygons as the N64 model (that's probably why the trophies look so darn good in Melee).
  
  
• However, despite being able to make a clean model, there existed problems. One problem was copyright. See, back in the day, Marigul was made in 1996 in order to provide more games for the N64. It was created by both Nintendo and a company known as Recruit (an advertisement, publication, and human resources company that only operated in Japan). Marigul was jointly owned by Nintendo and Recruit in a 40-60 split, respectively. Noise was one of the studios under Marigul (Noise originally was going to be a PC developer). Marigul would basically provide funding for smaller studios like Noise to make games for the N64. Marigul eventually was liquidated in 2003, but the studios like Noise and Ambrella were able to survive and still make games to this date (Noise is more known for the Custom Robo titles while Ambrella is known for the Pokemon spin-offs like Hey You, Pikachu!, Dash, Ranch, Channel, and the Rumble Games) So, Noise was basically the equivalent of a 2nd party developer back in the day and it was claimed that "Custom Robo was not a work of Nintendo". Nintendo and Recruit basically provided the funding and resources to Noise through Marigul in order to make Custom Robo and Custom Robo V2. It wasn't until Custom Robo GX before Nintendo actually gets mentioned on the title screen of the game. In order to make this clear, the 2 N64 titles had 1999 Noise (Marigul) and 2000 Noise (Marigul) as their copyright information on the title screen while Custom Robo GX had 2002 Noise/Nintendo as the copyright information.
  
  
• They had to fix the crotch region of a model for a female robo (likely the Annie trophy in Melee).
  
  
• The blogger mentioned that he/she thought that the development team of Melee (or a specific man [can't tell as it's a Google Translate thing]) were quite logical and had a sense of balance after talking with him/them for a while. Something else about how fighting games require a ton of research and analysis as well (which makes sense).
  
  
• The blogger also mentions (and calls Sakurai "Sakurai-san") that, jokingly, another reason why a Custom Robo wasn't made into a playable character was the fact that the main form of attacking was through projectiles, and that would mess with the game's balance. Then something about laughing (probably the signature laughing of Sakurai or the blogger laughing).
  
  
• The blogger ALSO mentions that the series is pretty low profile and that the games haven't been released overseas at the time.
  

Remember that this was a rough translation. But if this translation is indeed accurate, the main reasons for Ray's absence in the roster of Melee were the following:

• Custom Robo was technically not owned by Nintendo during Melee's development period. It was owned by Noise, who worked WITH Nintendo. Nintendo and Recruit basically provided funding to Noise via Marigul, a joint company made by Recruit and Nintendo (in a 60-40 split, respectively). It wasn't until GX in 2002 (a year after Melee) when Nintendo was started to be mentioned by the copyrights in-game. This is the big kicker. But now Custom Robo is owned by Nintendo IIRC.
  
  
• More of a joke than a serious point, but Custom Robos use projectiles as their main form of attack. This would affect balance.
  
  
• The series at the time was pretty low profile. Blogger's opinion mainly.
  
  
• The series was Japan only during Melee's development time. Fire Emblem was Japan only, but they got Marth AND Roy in the roster (though they were ALMOST removed in the localized versions), so this is more of the blogger's PoV."
  

 

[sogeki]

Shovel Knight, you've been dethroned.

Ray: Chance: 25%.
Want: Abstain

Tetra Prediction: 45%.
(@ colder_than_ice ) are we allowed to post leaks?

Nominations: Ryu x5

 

[Deleted member]

Ray

Chance: 5%

+ He appeared as a trophy in Melee and as an Assist Trophy in Brawl, so Sakurai acknowledged his existence at one point.
-- His series was never very successful or popular (at least to my knowledge) and hasn't seen a new installment in almost a decade.
-- His demand is seemingly very minimal. Even most of his own fanbase doesn't seem to be voting for him.

Unless Sakurai wants to surprise us by representing the forgotten franchise known as Custom Robo, I don't see Ray's inclusion happening.

Want: Abstain

I have never played a Custom Robo game. Yeah, I'm part of the problem.

Prediction: Tetra - 10%

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

(@ colder_than_ice ) are we allowed to post leaks?

Yes, go ahead.

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Ray

Chance: 55%
Japan seems to really want this guy, plus his assist trophy is gone.

Want: 25%
Never played a custom robo game.

Prediction: Tetra, 50%

Nomination: BB bandit trio X5.

 

[sogeki]

Yes, go ahead.

Actually, it's a Tetra link (WORDPLAAAYYYYY) but thanks! I'll post it tomorrow.

 

[Serell]

Ray

Chance: 12%
Him not being an Assist trophy is helpful, but at the same time not helpful. He was an AT in Brawl, but it almost feels like Sakurai forgot all about Custom Robo when it came to Sm4sh, with no Custom Robo trophys at all. Custom Robo hasn't gotten a new game in like a decade, and was never that popular. But it does have a cult following, more so in Japan than the U.S.

Want: 100%
Ever since I played Custom Robo for the first time at a friend's birthday party, I have loved the series and have wanted Ray in since before Brawl. I was even psyched to see him as an AT in Brawl, thinking "Hey! Sakurai knows about him! Maybe he'll make it next game!". He'd be extremely unique, being able to do horizontal air dashes, dropping pod bombs, and he would definitely become the most projectile oriented character on the roster, beating even Mega Man.

Tetra prediction: 15.7

Nominations: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo) x5

Also, can I say how criminal it is for Midna to get a lower chance score than SHOVEL KNIGHT? Really, guys, what the hell? Is Midna's chances extremely low? Yes. Does Shovel Knight, a non-nintendo, barely year-old, indie game with no history or ties nintendo whatsoever have better chances than Midna? NO. Seriously, Midna is LITERALLY x100 more likely than freakin Shovel Knight.
Honestly I saw a lot of people giving Midna low scores just because for whatever ungodly reason, they didn't like her. And at the same time I saw Shovel Knight fanboys giving Shovel Knight good scores because SHOVEL KNIGHT SO COOL

 

[Aetheri]

NOOOO! MIDNA, NO!!! DX....not that I'm too surprised though...but still a bit disappointed...

----

Not Gundam...

Ray

Chance: 20%
Similar situation to Isaac, relieved of his duties as an Assist Trophy from last game...unlike Isaac his popularity isn't topping a lot of polls and has had a fairly long hiatus in the gaming world...His absence as an Assist Trophy may mean something but it may also mean that he was overlooked, especially since Sakurai did not include to much Custom Robo content to begin with...
He's got a lot of popularity in Japan, which counts for something but at the same time...he's got a lot of competition...

----

Want: 10%
I guess he's kinda cool, could have a megaman-esque moveset consisting of a bunch of projectiles....and megaman annoys the crap outta me on For Glory so I may not be to eager to see another projectile heavy character...(note: I'm not saying he'd be a megaman clone before fanboys start raging at me)
Either way I've never played Custom Robo, nor was I all that interested in his character, so I wouldn't miss him...

---

Prediction: 16.4%
Tetra
1-Third Mario, 2-Third Marth 3-Third Link, 4-Third Zelda...who's next third Pit?

----

Nominations:
Dark Samus x5
aka. NOT a Samus clone...

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ray MK Chance:
10%
In the same position as Isaac and Wonder Red, all four are unique and decently requested, only he's less of a popular vote that Sakurai may not see that he's wanted by fans. Unless a new Custom Robo game is coming out, I don't really see him happening. Not much to say on the matter regarding Ray really.

Ray MK Want:
15%
Haven't played Custom Robo yet. Looking at the gameplay, it certainly looks like the kind of game I would play many times over and over again.

Tetra Prediction:
14.524%
This will be tough to guess, we barely had Tetra discussion in DLC speculation.

Nominations:
x5 Young Link

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ray

Chance: 14% He's not a an NPC in thsi game which helps his chances but he's not as popular as Issac unfortunately. But he still has a sliver of hope.

Want: 15% Not really a fan of him.

Tetra

Prediction 9.88%

Nominate Mother 3 Stage x5

 

[A Distant Demon]

Poor midna. . .

Ray
chance abstain
this is a really weird case. A fairly popular character who is more popular in japan than the west. His franchise is a MIA though

Want 18%
he looks cool and could be unique. Never played his game.

Predictions 22%


Noms
viridi 2
roy has awakening attire as default 2
4th mii class 1

 

[Toon612Link]

Ray
Chance: 40%
Ray is old school and deserves a spot in smash bros, But I don't see it happening as DLC... Ray is too important and Nintendo will need to think harder about the newcomers in the next installment. we will always have another Greninja, lucina and dark pit, But one day we will run out of Duck hunts and Little macs. Nintendo will probably save Ray for SSB5

Want: 100%

Tetra prediction: 60% And if I don't see higher imma find you and go cannibal on yo ahh!

Nominations:
Elma (Xenoblade) x3
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo) x2

 

[StormC]

Previous rankings:

Spoiler

1. K. Rool: 75%/100%
2. Banjo-Kazooie: 10%/70%
3. Isaac: 60%/40%
4. Bandana Dee: 50%/25%
5. Captain Toad: 25%/15%
6. Krystal: 25%/15%
7. Dixie Kong: 50%/50%
8. Impa: 50%/40%
9. Shantae: 15%/40%
10. Inklings: 55%/40%
11. Rayman: 30%/40%
12. Snake: 40%/70%
13. Wolf: 85%/60%
14. Shovel Knight: 20%/40%
15. Quote: 15%/45%
16. Ice Climbers: 10%/35%
17. Sceptile: 20%/50%
18. Wonder Red: 20%/35%
19. Promoted NPCs: 5%/Abstain
20. Henry Fleming: 15%/15%
21: Paper Mario: 30%/20%
22. Roy: 95%/0%
23. Ridley: 5%/80%
24. Chorus Kids: 25%/35%
25. DLC Alternate Costumes: 75%/75%
26. Magalor: 15%/30%
27. Midna/Link: 1%/5%

Ray:

Chance: 20%. I would have felt more confident in this during the Brawl era, but the lack of new Custom Robo games along with his overall obscurity dents his chances pretty well. We would need 10+ DLC characters before Ray even has a chance, in my opinion.

Want: 35%. He'd be pretty cool I suppose, I like robots a lot and he has a nice design, but I've never played the games.

5x vote for Vaati
Tetra prediction: 20%

 

[smileMasky]

Ray

Chance 10%?
he is not an assist in smash anymore I don't have the Wiiu version so I don't know if there is at least a trophy of him but I did see some polls from around the world and Japan does have a large fan base for him I would not know what to really think of him than that I did see his game advertised in the small preview ads in the DS packets and that he is the nintendo equivalent of a gundam

Want 34%
would not mind seeing him but are they going to change his size to something bigger? or will he be small like little mac I have mixed thoughts.

Nomination
Ninten x5

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Ray
Chance: 10%
Custom Robo didn't receive any sort of content, the series has been MIA for several years now, and the character hasn't been demanded. This is pretty bad for Ray overall...
I... uhh... don't have much to say here as well?

Want: 75%
He would be pretty cool.

Tetra Prediction: 9.44%
Something tells me that she will be walking the plank.

I think Ryu will be coming up after Tetra... now I will be nominating in my client again!
Nominations: Phoenix Wright 5x

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Delzethin is the winner of the Midna & Wolf Link prediction and thus gets an extra five today.

 

[PK_Wonder]

The nominations list is already getting rather crowded, with a lot of stuff starting to stagnate at the bottom.

What if on Day 30, I clean up the list of anything with less than 15 nominations? That gives you basically two whole days to get anything you want into the safe zone. After that, I can clean it up. Anything that gets cleared is still completely eligible for future nominations, it'll just lose what it has now. Trimming the fat so to speak. I'll do this in the future again if it becomes a problem.

 

[MatvaradoxD]

Ray
Chance: 15%
Samurai acknowledged him and promoted him from a trophy to an AT but don't know the reason why he's missing now which could help him a little. Ballot could do him some good.

Want: 50%
His design always looked awesome to me even though I never touched any of his games but I'm up for another robot in Smash. There's a ton of sword wielders and I just wanna see another unique character that'll set him apart from the others and Ray looks like he'll fit perfectly with his projectiles. Btw that intro above was great! Never seen it before, good share!

Predictions:
Tetra
- Chance: 30% - Want: 40%

Nominations:
Mach Rider x3
Lip x2

 

[AlphaSSB]

RAY​

Chance: 15%
- Custom Robo isn't that popular, and it's been MIA for a good while now. I'd love to see a new Custom Robo game appear in the future, and maybe we can get him as DLC then, but Custom Robo getting a game anytime soon is very unlikely. Still, anything is possible.

Want: 80%
- Ray looks so cool, and I'd love to play as him. He'd be very different from his assist trophy, but he'd be unique and a very fun addition.

Prediction: Tetra - 30%
Note: My prediction does not reflect my opinion

Nominations: Dark Samus x5
Well... Metroid does need a new rep... and if we can't get Ridley...

 

[AlphaSSB]

The nominations list is already getting rather crowded, with a lot of stuff starting to stagnate at the bottom.

What if on Day 30, I clean up the list of anything with less than 15 nominations? That gives you basically two whole days to get anything you want into the safe zone. After that, I can clean it up. Anything that gets cleared is still completely eligible for future nominations, it'll just lose what it has now. Trimming the fat so to speak. I'll do this in the future again if it becomes a problem.

I'd say do boot any nominees with less than 20 or 25 total nominations. Either way, go for it.

 

[Moydow]

Chance: 10%
In the same boat as Isaac in that he's a former assist trophy which was removed, but is in far less demand than the Venus Adept.

Want: 0%
Never played the game, or even heard of the character outside of Brawl.

Prediction for Tetra: 12.64%

Nominations: Phoenix Wright x5
I see other people nominating him now? Yay!

 

[Zerp]

Old ratings

Spoiler

Roy C 85% W 30% (opinion has now changed to 0% want)
Ridley C 5% W 70%
Chorus Kiddos C 17% W 10%
Magolor C 23% W 100%
Midna and inferior Star Wolf C 0% W 0%
Dlccostumes C 75% W 90%

Monsieur Ray

Chance: 10% I don't think he'll make it, he's not very demanded nor very relevant. Not to mention he isn't a assist anymore, implying relevancy went down, not up.
Want: 20% He has some really cool moveset potential, but that's about it in terms of what makes me want him.

Predictions: Tetra 15% Chance
Nominations: The almighty and great Pichu x 5

 

[JBRPG]

Ray MK II

Chance: 1% Very least known and almost no references in Smash 4

Want: %1 DO not care

Tetra Prediction: 30%

Nomination: Lip x 5

 

[Delzethin]

Wait, what? I actually won a prediction? This is...kind of bittersweet, considering it was a low guess.

Good thing I can take my mind off it by watching 12-inch-tall robots beat the crap out of each other!

-♪-

Ray

Chance: 15%
Ray is particularly of note as far as DLC candidates go. We saw the Ray Mk III model as an Assist Trophy in Brawl...and it was suspiciously absent this time around. Like with Isaac, it opens the door for a playable role...provided it can still happen.

That's where things get ambiguous. Custom Robo has fallen out of many fans' attention, with its last game back in 2006. With more time out of the spotlight than Golden Sun and without the initial following Star Fox had that let it survive until this year, Ray's support base has dwindled to a small but dedicated following. Outside of the one Japanese poll that was making the rounds a couple months ago, I can't recall seeing Ray crack the Top 20 anywhere.

That said, though, he has promise if a following can get going. Custom Robo games give you a ton of different weapons to choose from (The name was a dead giveaway, right? >_>), and since you can pair pretty much any robo model with any weapon, Ray has quite a bit of moveset potential. The usual combination of guns, bombs, explosive pods, and leg thrusters would fit in exceptionally well as special moves, making that part of the moveset easy to write, as well. Considering nearly every weapon in the series is ranged, though, there could be difficulty coming up with A moves for a game where even the projectile-based characters still need a handful of direct attacks.

Overall, we have yet another character with pretty intriguing potential whose chances rest on getting more votes than they currently have.

Want: 35%
Ray could be interesting and, as it turns out, pretty damn inspired. He's just...not very high up on my list, for some reason. I'm not entirely sure why.


Tetra Prediction: 12.50%
The pirate-turned-princess-turned-pirate-again has an argument to make...but with most of the Zelda support spread amongst other characters, it'll likely fall on deaf ears.


Nominations:
Let's split things up a little.

Geno x2
Alpha-Form Stages x3


@ PK_Wonder : I guess that'd be an okay idea. Trim off the very lowest numbers every now and then. I also remember the original thread freezing nominations at least once when they got super high.

@ Smasher 101 , can I save those extra five until after the nominations list gets trimmed?

 

[A10theHero]

Ray
Chance: 25%
+Was in Melee (trophy) and Brawl (assist trophy) and is suspiciously missing now
~-Not very popular on the ballot
~-No recent games

Want: 90%

Prediction:
Tetra: 30%

Nomination:
Spyro the Dragon [x5]

 

[PK_Wonder]

Alright, several liked and nobody that spoke up seem opposed, so I'll periodically trim the beard of the nominations list. On the beginning of Day 30, any character or concept that doesn't have at least 15 nominations will be reset to 0.

 

[Nintendotard]

Ray: Abstain
Don't know too much about his series

Tetra: 34%

Noms:
Daisy x5

 

[Kalimdori]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

DLC Alts Chance: 95%
Want: 100%

King K. Rool Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

NPC DLC Character Chance: 65%
Want: 100%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Paper Mario Chance: 55%
Want: 0%

Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

Inkling Chance: 50%
Want: 20%

Rayman Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Chance: 40%
Want: 60%

Dixie Chances: 39%
Want: 49%

Sceptile: 25%
Want: 100%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Quote Chance: 10%
Want: 95%

Chorus Kids Chance: 10%
Want: 40%

Ridley Chance: 5%
Want: 100%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

Shovel Knight Chance: 3%
Want: 70%

Magolor Chance: 1%
Want: 20%

Henry Fleming Chance: 1%
Want: 5%

Midna and Wolf Link Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Ray Chance: 25%

Rays in a similar situation as Isaac. He's a cut AT that was decently requested to become playable, particularly in Japan, he's got plenty of potential for a unique moveset, and he comes from a franchise with a devoted cult following. Biggest problem comes from the fact that he isn't nearly as requested as Isaac. I think he's got a decent shot of becoming playable, but he's got a bunch of characters he needs to go through first.

Ray Want: 65%

Never played his game, but he's a robot that blows stuff up. What's not to like?

Tetra Predictions: 14%

Noms: Pichu x5

 

[Erimir]

Ray...

+ He's a main character
+ He has move set potential, although with Mega Man and Mii Gunners in the game he's not quite as unique as he might've been
+ People on here are saying he's "popular in Japan"

- although I'm skeptical of how much that matters. People say that about so many characters - they seem to be forgetting that "more popular in Japan than in the West" =/= one of the top most popular characters in Japan, you know? There are only a few that can be on top. One poll where Ray places 6th among 1st-party newcomers in Japan helps... but 3rd-parties and veterans might push him down farther, and when you factor in his low popularity/recognition in the West, it's overall not a great placement.
- He's not that popular in the West. He might have some popularity in the Smash community, but most people would say "Who?" if you mentioned him.
- His entire series has had several games, but only barely breaks 1 million copies sold. The ballot matters more I think, but sales provide another view on popularity. And there's no promotional benefit with a dead series.
- Last game was 8-9 years ago, but he's not old enough to have the level of retro appeal that, say, Duck Hunt or Little Mac has.

+/- He was an AT in Brawl, but didn't even get that in Smash 4. Then again, at least that means an AT can't get in the way. But the people seeing this as preparation for DLC... I would point more to the 7 years since the last game and never big sales anyway.

All in all, I don't think it's great for Ray, he has a shot but only a handful of characters are getting in, and as far as I know, Ray is nowhere near the top of the ballot when you look worldwide.

Ray chances: 2%
I think with the ballot... they're going to go with the more obvious choices.
Ray want: 38%
Don't care about him, would rather see other characters. At least he wouldn't be boring like, say, Chrom.

Tetra Prediction: 4%
I don't think she should do much better than Midna, but who knows.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5