Eliw00d... well, what else to say?
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Rayman chances:
1%
Copy-paste from my last rating:
Sure, Rayman is famous character with iconic signature features, like his hair helicopter and lack of limbs. He was notably a pretty big deal in Europe, where he was created, and became popular in America as well. However, I'm overall doubtful about whether Rayman can reasonably hope to break the huge third-party barrier. For starters Japan cares about him and his series about as much as they cared about Little Mac prior to his reveal for Smash one year and half, and some Rayman games like Rayman 3 or Rayman Origins were not released in Japan, though the later managed to be released on 3DS over there after missing the Wii. Also I hate to say this, but Rayman's influence on Nintendo had not been something historically huge to be honest... (Yes, his series has been very faithful to Nintendo overall, but faithful doesn't mean influent.) I mean, for example, Mega Man and Ryu were hugely influent on the NES and SNES respectively, but Rayman's didn't contribute as much towards Nintendo's history when I think about it.
Then again there's this enigmatic trophy, but I'd say it's most likely the results of a deal between Nintendo and Ubisoft; Mario and Luigi costumes in Rayman Legends, and Rayman exposure on Smash Wii U in return. As such I don't think it really means anything. It could be possible that Ubisoft asked for Rayman to be in Smash, maybe as part of this potential deal, but Sakurai rejected the idea and chosen to add a few Rayman series trophies instead. If it's the case, then Rayman's chances would plummet considerably. The most unlikely scenario is that Sakurai was interested in adding Rayman playable but suffered from time constraints thus limiting his series' role to a few trophy cameos, though as I said it's a very unlikely outcome.
I still stand by what I've written last time, however I think a 1% chances rating is more appropriate. He's basically a nobody in Japan and and is owned by a company which most likely has zero involvement with Smash besides those trophy cameos. And while Rayman is a famous gaming character, I'm not sure about him being standing-out enough to catch Sakurai's attention as a Smash choice (and no, just because he's "iconic" doesn't automatically make him more likely or legitimate than other candidates). Overall I think Rayman has more things going against him than for him, and I would be surprised to see him chosen.
Rayman want:
15%
Rayman is one of the most influent series of my childhood, with Rayman 2 and 3 being among the experiences which crafted me as a young player, and I was amazed to see him represented in Smash, and I was even more amazed when there was a Globox trophy as well. No wonder how I became a vocal and enthusiastic Rayman supporter. However, he's not a Nintendo character which is a problem, and I've come to put a lot of thought on whether who was my most wanted character at the time was worthy of being playable in Smash in spite of being what would be a guest. Over the time I've come to accept that personal bias aside he wouldn't really be that much special as a third-party character, just another guest for the sake of it and not much more.
Now Rayman would be the kind of character I love to see in fan games like Super Smash Flash which give themselves little constraints when it comes to add non-Nintendo characters or even anime ones, but in actual Smash? Third-parties in official Smash are guests who don't directly contribute towards making what the series is about, and I'm not sure about Rayman having the special qualities to make up for it. Not gonna lie, some part of me would be amazed to see him and other heroes from my childhood properly gathered, but at the same time I think it would contribute to lower the standards for guests in Smash, which could potentially open the floodgates for even more third-parties which is something I wouldn't be comfortable with. Plus we already got a third-party newcomer as DLC, so almost anyone else is going to feel stale at this point.
Not to mention I got turned off from bandwagoned indie third-parties after the ballot and I felt conflicted about supporting Rayman, a character who was rarely brought up as a contender until the cameo reveal which led to a lot of bandwagon support, yet being opposed to these indie characters. That was also part of why I stopped being a vocal supporter of Rayman. Anyway, those trophy cameos are more than what I would have hoped for in the first place, so I'm grateful for them and I don't feel like asking for more right now.
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Wolf prediction:
72.56%
The fact he wasn't added before the end of the ballot will make more people less confident about his chances, but overall he'll still do well, especially with the new placeholder which will help his score to not go too much lower.
No more guests prediction:
56.54%
The scores will be all over the place. I'm curious about the want score, too.
Nominating:
(Rerate) Returning stage: Fountain of Dreams x5
For those who didn't understand, the "o" letters in Eliwood's name were replaced by two "0" digits. In other words, he gets double zeroes.
![[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]](/data/avatars/l/267/267037.jpg?1450250857){kind=avatar}
