Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[~Krystal~]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Zero
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

 

[Wanderer from Roseyard]

Zero
Double the aforementioned. The Mii outfit was very generous. When it comes to Mega Man, I prefer the base series anyway.

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 30%
Want: 60%
I think his odds are better than what he's given credit for. Still, hard to quantify a chance, because it will either make it into the game or it won't.

Nominate
The same thing I always do: Pikachu Libre times five. I didn't realize I had put her so high up the nomination list!

 

[So_many_mails]

Zero
Chance - 1%
Want - 0%

Chibi-Robo
Chance - 10%
Want - 0%

Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x5

 

[Zerp]

Zero:

Hey look, two different Zeros, I think one's jealous he doesn't have a RTC thread .

Chibi Robo:

Chances: 10% He's not really a front-runner but he's got a chance.
Want: 40% I never really wanted him, but I'd probably be happy with his inclusion anyway.

Predictions:
Clefairy: 0.50%
Second Namco or Sega rep: 10%
Nominations: Undecided

 

[SpiritofSpeed]

Zero:
Double zeroes

Chibi-Robo
Double zeroes

Returning stage: Spear Pillar x 5

 

[ShinyRegice]

The Pirate Ship stage is confirmed to be back! It had a chances score of 16.75%, which means we underestimated its chances, and it had a 68.36% want score, which means we were overall open to the idea of seeing this stage back. For instance, here's what I wrote about it:

Pirate Ship chances: 15%
Arguably the most popular Brawl stage which didn't return in SSB4, but there's one problem... almost all of its musics returned in other stages, including Temple, Skyloft, and even Hyrule Castle 64 with the returning Termina Fields song.

Pirate Ship want: 70%
Yes, it isn't viable for serious 1vs1 no items, but I have fond memories with this stage and I think it was one of my favourite for free-for-all battles in Brawl. I would definitely buy it if it came back as DLC.

Looks like having musics on other stages isn't much of a big deal after all. It also depends on which musics are present on the DLC version of this stage before we can draw conclusions, before we can see what scores give to stages we will rate in the future.

Edit: well, all of its musics are recycled tracks from other stages. Combined with the fact Wii U exclusive stages are confirmed to be a thing, Fountain of Dream's chances might have skyrocketed.

Also it's funny that we rated the 3DS stages on Wii U concept a couple of days ago then literally the reverse of this concept is confirmed. Ahah.

-----

Anyway, for the ratings:

Chibi-Robo chances: 8%
Copy and paste:

Unlike a lot of other people here I personally don't give a lot of credit to the new game increasing Chibi-Robo's chances, at least not as much as them. Sure, my rating would be lower without it, probably bellow 5%, but just because you have a new game doesn't mean your chances magically skyrocket. The new Chibi-Robo! game will have to prove itself to be a popular title able to make the franchise one of Nintendo's strong series as I already said in my previous ratings of characters from currently unrepresented franchises, series must be among the most influent ones in the Nintendo universe to be represented with a playable character in Smash Bros. (Okay besides Ice Climber, but still...) That said, with a new gameplay direction which probably had been chosen to gain more mainstream appeal and the amiibo which at least shows some confidence from Nintendo's part about the game being a success, it seems that this series is trying to gain a new audience, which may eventually make Chibi-Robo! one of their new strong series on the long run. I don't think it will happen with Smash 4 DLC, if anything I'm expecting him as a newcomer for SSB5 as long as the series becomes stronger in the future.

I'm still standing by this.

Chibi-Robo want: 65%
A seemingly unique character from a cult though not terribly obscure Nintendo series, seems Smash material imo. To be fair I was aware of this character's series without the help of Smash (which introduced me to pretty much any Nintendo series which isn't Mario, DK, Pokémon, TLoZ or Duck Hunt), I'm pretty sure that what made me aware of him was the launch of the New Play Control! series. I'm not extremely interested in Zip Lash as my 2D platformer needs are well covered at the moment (especially with Super Mario Maker), but maybe I could be interested in getting his original games. I could give him a higher want score but at the same time I'd rather not see DLC characters being included for the sake of MUH RELEVANCE RECENCY!!!!1!1!! as his amiibo is the main reason why he's in the spotlight right now.

-----

Zero chances: 0.04%
Zero want: his name
Not interested, and I don't have much to say here anyway.

-----

Clefairy prediction: 0.32%
Nope.

Second character for Namco or Sega prediction: 18.95%
Maybe it could happen?

Zerp wins for 3DS stage for Wii U, and ShinyRegice wins TEN extra nominations for getting Neku on the dot!

An exact prediction on someone who isn't a Bubsy-like joke destined to get an overall flat zero?

Nominating:
(Rerate) Playable newcomer: Rayman x15
I wished we could rate him before the concept of no more third-parties, so this is ideal.

 

[Kenith]

Chibi-Robo:
Chance: 65%.
Want: 60%.

Zero:
Chance: 0%.
Want: 70%.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Chibi Robo
25% Chance
100% want

Zero
0% Chance
100% Want

Nominating Pichu x 5

 

[Scamper52596]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 24%
I'd say his chances are above average. Nintendo seems to be paying more attention to the IP as of late, and he seems like he would have a fun move set that fits in Smash. In fact I'd say that the character himself looks like he would fit well in Smash. I can't really explain, but I just feel as if Chibi-Robo is a character that Sakurai might like. I'll give the cute little robot a score of 24%, which is a 5% increase from my original rating.
He just might be on Sakurai's radar...

Want: 55%
I wouldn't really care either way. I think he would make a cool character, but I don't know much about him so I don't really support him. It would also be funny to give R.O.B. the Robot a friend or something.


Zero
Chance: 0.4%
He's already Mii Fighter costume. I'll give RTC's Mascot a small rating of 0.4%.
What is he fighting for...

Want: 8%
He definitely wouldn't be the worst thing to me. He's cool and all, but it's just my personal preference that I would really like to see more first party characters from here on out.

 

[Smasher 101]

Chibi-Robo's chances: 20%

Would have rated him a bit lower before, but now he has a new game and even his very own amiibo on the way. If anything I think he's got a really good shot at getting in a fifth Smash if his series keeps going, but if he was DLC here, I wouldn't be too surprised.

Want: 100%

The more I think about it, the more I really like this choice. New franchises are usually a good thing in my eyes, I enjoyed his first game (though I hated Park Patrol), has potential to be a very interesting character, and would fit in well. I'd love to see him get in, whether it be in the next game or as DLC.

Not much of a change here, just a slight increase in chance because I think 20's actually a little too low. I still think he's more likely for a potential fifth Smash but could easily see them wanting to put him in here. Either way, I think he'd be a great inclusion.

Chibi-Robo's chances: 25%
Want: 100%

Zero's chances: 0.5%

I don't think a second Mega Man character has much of a chance. Considered going with his name but don't quite consider him 0% chance material.

Want: 0%

I have no interest whatsoever in any second Mega Man character.

Clefairy prediction: 0.07%
Namco or Sega second character prediction: 31.59%

Nominations: Blaziken x5

 

[Mario123311]

Chibi Robo
Chance & Want
0%

Zero
Chance & Want
Double Zeros

Sorry. The problem with Chibi Robo as far as I know hasn't even been seen since the GameCube at this point. Zero... Honestly Capcom already has 2 Reps. :U

*Nomonates Giana x5*

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Zero: Double Zeroes

Chibi-Robo: 25%
Want: 65% (Wouldn't mind)

Clefairy: 0%
Second Sega/Namco: 12%

Ice Climbers 5x

Chibi Robo
Chance & Want
0%

Sorry. The problem with Chibi Robo as far as I know hasn't even been seen since the GameCube at this point.

Chibi-Robo is getting a new game this year, and has had couple of games on DS.

 

[Mario123311]

Well, I guess I can change it then
Chance: 25%
Want: 65%

 

[EliteXit]

Chibi-Robo:

Chance: 5%
Want: Abstain

Zero:

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

 

[Logo12]

I just came to see what that "RTC's Mascot" is.

Oh lol.

 

[-crump-]

When I read "RTC's Mascot", I immediately thought we were doing Brash the Bear.

Oh well.
Chibi Robo
Chance: 45%
New game boosts his chances, for sure, but it's a coin flip, at best.
Want: 50%
I'm not a huge fan, but I wouldn't be salty if he got in.

Zero:
Chance: 10%
Not that highly requested, 3rd party
Want: Abstain
Never played MMX Series

Nominations: Ultimate Ghost x5

 

[Fire Rider]

Hi!!!
A long time before my last rate here

I think that with a limited time before ballot and a limited number of Mario slots and Ballot Slot (max 4 char) could be a waste of money invert in non cool or non strong candidates (filler or secondary roles)
Sorry if this could be rude
For this reason sometimes since months I put super zeros here hahaha

For Chibi Robo:
I feel really meh with that character, it's like a combination of Olimar and Rob
But I haven't feel really identified and focused on that character and maybe other mainstream players that could buy him as DLC
Sorry

Chances: 00%
Want: 0%

Like assist trophy its chances could be better 70%

Zero
Mah boy from Capcom
I cried a lot because he was on Marvel vs Capcom 3 and not Mega Man only skins like this Smash
Megaman was on these times the Snake or Sonic of Capcom
Sorry if Zero now it's a DLC could be on the GBA form not as the X series like SNK vs Capcom

Chances And Want
His name, congrats for the new RTC mascot

Prediction
Clearfy (sounds like a soap ) 4%
Second Sega Rep 0% Second Namco Rep 20%

Nomination Goku (Dragon Ball) x5 please

 

[Laniv]

Chibi Robo:

Chance: 30%


Want: 84%

Zero:

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Predictions for Clefairy: 3% Chance, 5% Want
Predictions for second SEGA/Namco Rep: 23% Chance, 64% Want

Nominate Savvy Stylist x 5

 

[Troykv]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 30%

Has everything that definies a possible choice, main Character, 1st Party, interesting gameplay potential, Ballot request (okay-size and silent compared with the Big Three).

Want: 55%

He looks interesting

Pero

Chance: 1%

Mmm... And Second Megaman rep? That doesn't sounds really likeable. AT least is a really popular character.

Want: 60%

Hey! I like Zero's Design and abilities.

Predictions:

Clefairy: 0.6%
Second Namco/Sega Rep: 10.1%

Nominations:

Rerate! Rayman x5

Eh.... I still have the extra nominations?... Right?... If is the case, put it in Rayman.

 

[Cane Seven]

Zero

Chance - 0%
Want - 0%

Chibi Robo

Chance - 1%
Want - 0%

 

[A Distant Demon]

relevant article
http://mynintendonews.com/2015/09/3...chance/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[Erureido]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 20%

Chibi-Robo has arguably become a modern day Nintendo icon, and that's quite true with his times in the Gamecube release. He also has the relevancy status going for him thanks to his upcoming 3DS title and soon-to-release amiibo figure.

Outside of that, his chances aren't the best. The following games in his series since the first release haven't sold well enough. In fact, Nintendo's Kensuke Tanabe revealed that the upcoming 3DS may be Chibi-Robo's last game if it doesn't perform well to company expectations. With the previous not having strong sells, its affected Chibi-Robo to the point he isn't a very popular character on the Smash Ballot. Yes, he has support, but it doesn't seem like it's enough to convince Nintendo. From his current situation, I think he is much more likely for Smash 5 than Smash 4 DLC.

Want: Abstain

I haven't played any of his games before, though the 3DS looks like a game I'll play eventually.

The RTC Thread's Mascot

Chance and Want:

The crowd: "Who is our RTC Mascot?"

Erureido: "Play the music!"

Yep, I decided not to do something Fate/Zero or Pokemon movie 11 villain Zero related for today's double zero post. It'd be better to do something for the popular Megaman character.

Regarding Chance:

Though a very popular and iconic Megaman character (evident with his appearances in crossover games like SNK vs Capcom and Marvel vs Capcom, two games where he appeared instead of Megaman), it's highly doubtful we'll be getting anymore Capcom characters after Ryu's inclusion. In addition, Zero's already a Mii Fighter Costume, and I feel as though his ballot support won't be enough to convince Sakurai to include him considering what he currently has against him.

Regarding Want:

As cool as Zero is, I honestly think Capcom is well represented with Megaman and Ryu right now. When it comes to third parties, I want to see other third party characters that aren't Capcom-affiliated to have their chance to shine, particularly Snake and Professor Layton, at this point.

Predictions:

Clefairy (Pokemon): 0.05%
Second Namco/Sega Rep: 9.37%

Nominations:

(Concept) BlazBlue representation: x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Chibi-Robo:

Chance: 35%
Want: 75%

Zero:

Chance: 1.5%
Want: 55%

 

[Old School Tommy]

Chibi Robo

Chance & Want - 0%

Zero

Chance & Want - 0%

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 30%

After today's news, I'm not really confident in Chibi Robo's chances anymore. While he does have a new game with a shiny new Amiibo, there had been controversy about Zip Lash being too different/generic from the original and the producer did say that they would kill off the franchise if that game were to flop soon. Not even his decent requests in the ballot would bode well for him at point.

Want: 80%

I just want my Chibi Robo in Smash, even if his franchise were to die due to poor sales.

El Cero

Chance and Want: Double Zeroes

Too many Capcom reps and he's not Bass.

Predictions:

Clefairy: 0.5%
Second Namco/Sega Rep: 10%

Nominations: Lark (Pilotwings) x5

 

[FancySmash]

Ah, what better way to mark my return after a few months than with a rating...

Zero - Perhaps his chances as well?
Chance and Want - Abstain, I don't know enough about the series to make a good guess.

Chibi Robo
Chance - 25%
Chibi Robo seems to be a rising star in Nintendo's world. He's getting a new game and an Amiibo. Other than that however, adding a new series to Smash this late is something I can't see...

Want - 80%
I've got nostalgia for the little bot. I've played the Gamecube title and a bit of the DS title, and he's pretty likable in my opinion, and I'd be interested in seeing what they'd do for his move set. (Also, Smash Flash 2 had him, and he's pretty fun...)

Um... I don't think I'll make any nominations or predictions right now. The ballot end draws near, so...

 

[colder_than_ice]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 10%
Want: 30%

Zero gets a zero with a zero.

Nominations: No more third-party characters x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

CHIBI-ROBO
CHANCE: 19.78%
WANT: 47.92%

ZERO
CHANCE: 1.47%
WANT: 16.76%
​

Next up we're rating Clefairy and the concept of a second Namco or Sega character. Also please predict what score Eliwood from Fire Emblem and Rayman will get tomorrow.

 

[A Distant Demon]

chance
28.86% --->19.78%
want
59.83% --->47.92
quite the drop from a double top 10. . .

Nom
Ace Attorney representation 3
Wonder Red 2

 

[Deleted member]

Clefairy

Chance: RTC's Unofficial Mascot (Zero)

Want: The Kirby Villain (Zero)

Additional Namco/Sega Character

Chance: 31%

30% - Tails, Knuckles, or Eggman
1% - Anyone else

After seeing noteworthy franchises such as Virtua Fighter and Tekken get the Mii costume treatment, I have little faith in any Namco or Sega character not named Tails, Knuckles, or Eggman becoming fully playable.

Want: 50%

Depends on who gets picked.

Predictions:

Eliwood - 1.3%

Rayman - 30%

Nominations: Dan (Street Fighter) x5

 

[The Light Music Club]

Additional Namco/Sega Character...

If it's iM@S or Miku (if you consider her Sega) then 100% Want

In terms of chance, 20%

 

[-crump-]

Clefairy
Chance: 0.1%
Completely and entirely irrelevant... Not even a joke request like Magnemite.
Want: 0%
I mean, why?

Additional Namco/Sega Newcomer
Chance: 25%
Doubt it. Not many highly requested choices left from either.
Want: 0%
No thanks. The only third party left I would even remotely want is Shovel Knight.

Nomination: Ultimate Ghost x5

 

[Smasher 101]

CaptainAmerica wins for Chibi-Robo, and ShinyRegice wins for Zero.

 

[Rockaphin]

Clefairy:

Chance: 3%
Want: 5%

Second Namco/Sega Rep:

Chance: 35%
Want: 30%

 

[Lord-Zero]

Chance: 0%
Want: 20%

- An "out of the blue" choice. I'd be okay with that.

Second Namco/Sega Rep

Chance: 32%
Want: 70%

- Anything goes at this point.

Predictions

Eliwood: Chance: 1.57% / Want: 5.4%
- A main character from the first localized Fire Emblem game deserves better but we'll see. "Get 'em good, Eliwood!" tomorrow.

Rayman: Chance: 1.5% / Want: 6.2%

Nominations

Oliver (Fire Emblem) x5

Beauty is on the rise!

 

[Wanderer from Roseyard]

Clefairy
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 0%

There are so many Pokémon in Smash, and so many yet to make it, that any given monster will need extraordinary credentials to make it in, at this point. Cred that Clefairy just lacks, imo.

The species had some special traits back in its day. It was a particularly rare encounter in Mt. Moon - just rare enough that the average player rushing through with Repels might never see it. Befittingly, its first card in the TCG was rare and holographic despite being a basic form that still can evolve. Finally, it was the first and (at the time) only Pokémon that was suggested to have come from space, giving it the appeal of a mystical magical outsider. It also had a tongue-in-cheek manga series centered around it.

But what does it have to show for itself now? Just in terms of presentation, its pink, rotund form is already in the Smash lineup, diminishing what it could contribute to the cast. Its most distinct move, Metronome, is better suited to a Poké Ball summon, but even as a move, would be a repeat of G&W's hammer. There are so many other Pokémon out there who are more talked about and admired, and can lend things that no other Smash character already does.

Sega or Namco character
Chance: 25%
Want: 50%

If it's Arle, maybe. I was pleasantly surprised at her emerging popularity once the polls began. I'm more of an oldschool Sega fan, and most of my favorite characters from them have been retired or have only resurfaced in crossover tennis or racing games since. The usual Sega crossover suspects like Nights, Beat, or Ulala don't really appeal to me, but Arle or Joe Musashi are lots of yes. ToeJam & Earl would make for the most bizarre, unwarranted, but absolutely appreciated choices for me.

As for Namco, well, same.

Predict
Eliwood chance: 0.1%
Rayman chance: 15.2%

Nominate:
Pikachu Libre representation times five. I just want to point it out ahead of time that this is for representation in general and doesn't strictly mean it has to be playable. I expect the chances on this one to be fairly harsh anyway :C

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Well...that was anticlimactic...

Let me congratulate for being the new highest-want-rating-for-a-specific-thing to be confirmed!

On to the show...

: 0/0

Our slot for random-irrelevant-pink-fat-Pokémon-that-Japan-really-loved-in-Gen-1-but-really-nobody-cares-too-much-anymore-and-evolves-only-by-moon-stone is already full.
​

Extra 3rd party: 1/0

Don't care too much about third parties, so I'm not fussed if there's only one. After the huge icons we do have, I don't know who else could come in.
​

Eliwood prediction: 0.3%
Rayman prediction: 6.4%

Noms: no more 3rd parties x10

 

[Sid-cada]

Clefairy

Chance - 0.01% - All that she has going for her is that she is kinda maybe sorta popular.

Want - 1.5% - Not really interested.


Extra third party

Chance - 0.25% - A minute chance, but not much.

Want - 10% - Save them for next game.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Clefairy chances (and want):

(Double zeroes)
In another world where Pikachu didn't replace Clefairy as Pokémon's official mascot, Clefairy would probably have been playable in Smash Bros. However as it currently stands, this world is only a fantasy. And I don't care about making this fantasy a reality. We already have a small pink Fairy-type Pokémon in Smash anyway.

-----

Second character for Namco and/or Sega chances: 9.5%
I could see another Sonic character potentially making it as Smash DLC, but after that, I'm not sure.

Second character for Namco and/or Sega want: 8%
Just because we got Ryu doesn't mean we need to balance things out. I can't think right now of another character from these companies who would be an amazing addition to the Smash roster.

-----

Eliwood prediction: 1.22%
People will be harsh on him.

Rayman prediction: 23.35%
Let him drop in chances. 30% is way too high for him. If he doesn't decrease this time around, I'll give up on nominating him.

Nominating: I won extras on this game's mascot? Nice!
(Rerate) Returning stage: Fountain of Dreams x10

Pirate Ship proves that having musics already in other stages, being unviable on 3DS (due to the reflection effects in this case) and and having another returning stage from the same series are irrelevant when it come to the likeliness of stages. This current 2.68% chances score needs to skyrocket.

 

[Zerp]

I apologize in advance for the massive text wall.

Clefairy
Chances:

Pros

Clefairy was originally going to be the mascot of Pokemon, but Pikachu was picked over it later on.

It was and still is to some degree a popular pokemon.
Clefairy is somewhat important in the games, frequently appearing as a rare pokemon, has a little dance sequence on Mt. Moon, and has a minigame dedicated to it in gen4's game corner,
Pokemon that Clefairy is related to

:
Clefable and Cleffa, although you probably already knew that .
Possibly Gengar.
Clefairy's part of Gen 1's group of it's most popular and heavily promoted pokemon, and is loosely part of some weird, unofficial "trio", but one that still influenced the franchise and was used for promotional material regardless. This trio probably wouldn't really help her/his chances at all if it weren't for one thing.

Which is that the other two members of it both are in Smash Bros.
They are and .

Clefairy, Jigglypuff and Pikachu all share the prestigious honor of being featured on the only Promotional Pokemon (not trainer or stage) card with three or more Pokemon on it. Also, while the trio all were given baby pre evolution's in gen 2, the other 3 from Gen 1 that got Baby pre-evolution's were Clefairy, Jigglypuff, and Pikachu . These three were featured in all sorts of merchandise together along with the other popular pokemon at the time.

Spoiler: Some examples

Unfortunately that's the end of stuff in favor of Clefairy's inclusion.

Since this is probably really long and very boring for you, here's a intermission you can take if you want .

Spoiler: Intermission

Cons
Her/His popularity is nothing compared to the Pokemon in Smash, and her/his iconicness doesn't stack up either. If Pikachu Mewtwo, and Charizard are A's, Jigglypuff and Lucario are B's, and Greninja's a C, then Clefairy's a F in terms of popularity and how iconic it is.

Massive competition, even in it's own franchise.

It being the mascot doesn't really mean much now that it isn't it, all it does is give it a bit more prominence.

Wouldn't be the only fairy on the roster, and isn't exactly one of the Pokemon who first pop up in our minds when it comes to moveset potential.

Remember how I said Clefairy's loosely part of a trio? That's a pretty big hit to her/his chances right there, since there's no real way to confirm whether or not that trio is a real thing, or sheer coincidence. And even if we were to assume it's official, there still is one massive problem with it. Clefairy's kind of the weakest link by far, while both Pikachu and Jigglypuff have massive media exposure, Clefairy well, doesn't. While Pikachu's the mascot, Jigglypuff is in every main handheld pokemon game, Clefairy doesn't really have anything that holds a candle to that. Clefairy simply isn't a juggernaut like the other two are, and can't really stand out enough on it's own to earn itself a spot.



Final Score: 0.5% chance

I don't think Clefairy has any where near enough popularity, and is simply not even close to being in the league of the other Pokemon on the roster. And to add to that, there is simply no way it will beat Pichu, Ivysaur, Squirtle and/or the top newcomer candidates for a spot.

Want: 50% I want Clefairy a lot as she's/he's one of my favorite pokemon, but at the same time more popular characters being pushed to the side for Clefairy would definitely leave a bitter taste in my mouth, in all honesty the most the character should ever get is being a pokeball mon like it was in Melee.



Second Namco-Sega Rep:
Chances: Abstain
Want: Depends on who it is, if it's Dr. Eggman or Tails I'm probably going to be happy anyone else and I'm probably not.

Predictions:
Eliwood: 2%
Rayman: 14%