Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Smasher 101]

Chrom's chances: 0%

Nope.

Want: 20%

I'm over Chrom. I wanted him over Robin and Lucina and I'm still certain I'd like him more than either of the two (or at least more than Robin, I don't like Robin very much), but I'm over it. We have our Awakening representatives and if I'm not being completely selfish Robin was probably the smarter choice for the main one. I'd still be mildly happy if he got in somehow, but for the most part I've moved on.

Micaiah's chances: 0.5%

I still don't think she stands a chance.

Want: 0%

I still don't care for the idea, either.

3DS > Wii U prediction: 8.58%
Neku prediction: 1.11%

Nominations: Riki x5

 

[Smasher 101]

double post chances: 100%
want: 0%

(didn't see that it posted before, sorry about that)

 

[a smart guy]

Time for a quick rating:
Chrom:
Chance: 10% The way he was defeated in his trailer made people want him.
Want: 0% However, I still don't want him.

Micaiah:
Chance: 2% Too many Fire Emblem Characters.
Want: 0% Too many Fire Emblem Characters!

Nominations: Dr. Lobe x5

 

[E=Mewtwenty2]

Chrom: Double Zeroes: He's been flat out deconfirmed people. Unless a miracle happens, he's not getting in. And, for the record, I really don't want anymore Fire Emblem characters, especially not sword users.

Micaiah Chances: 10%: Her Japanese popularity is the only reason why I believe she has a chance at all.
Micaiah Want: 25%: She's still a FE character, but hey, at least she lacks a sword.

3DS > WiiU: 7.98%
Neku: 0.56%

X5 Dr. Eggman

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Sorry guys, I'm not able to get noms updated tonight since I've just got my phone. They'll be up tomorrow.

 

[False Sense]

Time for a quick rating:
Chrom:
Chance: 10% The way he was defeated in his trailer made people want him.

You know, guys, Chrom actually won that fight in the end.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Chrom
Chance: 0% - He's a Final Smash and a Mii Costume. This ship has sailed.
Want: 0%

Micaiah
Chance: 0% (rounded down) - The sourcegaming poll results did not impress me at all. She's polling at just over 1% and that's not even accounting for other parts of the world. I'm sure Sakurai knows that a sixth Fire Emblem rep is something that will get a bit of backlash from fans.
Want: 0%

Nominations: Chibi Robo x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

CHROM
CHANCE: 1.58%
WANT: 33.46%

MICAIAH
CHANCE: 5.16%
WANT: 21.12%
​

Alright, here's what we're doing next to prepare for the update:
- Rate the chances of a DLC character reveal.
- Rate the chances of a new DLC stage reveal. Not one that's already been confirmed.
-Give your personal predictions.
We'll rate Neku and the 3DS stage on Wii U concept tomorrow.

 

[Icedragonadam]

DLC Character: 50% It's tough to say, it's been three months since a new character. But if there is one, I'm guessing it would be Shovel Knight.

DLC Stage: 99.9% The file name for Mario Maker was numbered 5 when's there's no 4th stage yet and it isn't Suzaku Castle. So yes it's going to happen.

Personal Predictions-Isaac and Ice Climbers mii costumes. And a direct just before the update.

 

[Deleted member]

DLC Character Reveal Chance: 25%

New DLC Stage Reveal Chance: 25%

More likely than not, we'll get the Mario Maker stage, some character balance changes, and several Mii Costumes.

If a character does get revealed tomorrow, it'll certainly be Wolf - the only popular veteran left without any issues in his way, whether they be technical (Ice Climbers) or legal (Snake).

 

[The Light Music Club]

Quick question, when does the update go live?

In terms of Characters I think if we get one its Wolf or Prof. Layton

Mii costumes of Isaac, Waddle Dee, Micaiah, Viridi, and Idolm@ster

DLC char: 30%
Stage: 35%
Mii costumes: 75%

 

[A Distant Demon]

For anyone with very strong opinions
Wanna bet?
http://smashboards.com/threads/the-...tember-30th-dlc-edition.418163/#post-20192293

 

[Sid-cada]

I'd say if we get a character, it's probably gonna be Wolf. This is also the last stand for the Shovel Knight rumor; either he's in, or the he then would need to stand on his own merits.

Character chance - 45% - I'm not certain if we're getting one with it, but I typically prefer to err on the side of caution.

Oh, and definitely expect a second stage to come along.

Stage Chance - 74.45%

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

September 30th predictions

Characters: 90%
If there is any character revealed, I'd place my bets on Wolf.

Stage Chance: 90%
Sector Z anyone?

Predictions: Neku 0%

Predictions: 3DS stages on Wii U 3%

Nominations: Mr. Stevenson X5.

 

[ShinyRegice]

I'm glad that my idea to have a day dedicated to the September 30th update was accepted. I think it's decently likely to get more news about it through the SmashJP Twitter this Monday, so this special day is the best way to wait for news.

New character chances: 40%
Non-Mario Maker stage chances: 95%

I'm doubtful about characters as we will most likely not have a livestream dedicated to the new update and I'm not expecting a sudden and non-live character reveal, plus the update happens just before the end of the ballot, though I wouldn't be too shocked to be wrong here. I'm definitely expecting a new stage as the stage_4 theory is too convincing imo and stages aren't as much of a big deal as characters so they can be revealed without livestream just fine, so I expect one to be revealed Monday or Tuesday through Twitter alongside Mii costumes. I'd be very surprised if SMM is the only stage we get.

For more specific things, I'll predict no additional character, a non-64 returning stage (my bets are on Fourside), and eight new Mii costumes:

- Tom Nook brawler;
- MegaMan Volnutt gunner;
- Star Force Mega Man gunner;
- Doc Louis brawler;
- Buzzy Beetle hat;
- Magnus swordfighter;
- Siegfried swordfighter;
- Slippy Toad gunner.

Sticking with my predictions from yesterday for Neku and the other concept, respectively 0.42 and 6.98%.

Nominating: (if nominations are counted today, if not, then ignore)
(Rerate) Playable newcomer: Rayman x5

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Character: 45%
Non-Mario Maker Stage: 90%
Want (both): 100%

Personal predictions: Wolf and some Smash 64 stage

Same predictions as yesterday.

Ice Climbers 5x

 

[SmashFighter64]

September 30 predictions:

Character Chance: 70%
If any character get revealed, it's most likely gonna be Wolf as a veteran and 1 new comer.

Stage prediction: 90%
For sure we're getting Super Mario Maker and a new stage which may be announced next week.

 

[Zerp]

DLC Character Reveal:
Chances: 70% Personally, I think this is pretty likely, I'll try to keep my expectations low, but it just seems right given how much time passed, and to be honest, I think we'd be getting a character on the 30th, not even a reveal. I think they might go for the same effect that Ryu and Roy were intended to give but failed because of leaks.
Want: 100% Why would I not want to see more characters?

Stage prediction:
Chances: 80%
Want: 100%
Same predictions and I nominate 5 votes to Clefairy again.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Character chance: 5%. I'm sorry, but we're near the end of the ballot. Unless it's Wolf, we're not getting another character.
Stage chance: 95%.

Dr. Eggman X5

 

[AlphaSSB]

SEPTEMBER 30th PREDICTIONS:​

Character Chance: 50% -- It's a coin flip. We haven't seen or heard of any new characters since Lucas, Roy, and Ryu showed up way back in June. They missed the ball in August (Or July 30th if you're picky) and I'm sure that they've had more than enough time to begin work on another character or two. I'm honestly predicting Wolf. I know Star Fox Zero was delayed, but maybe they'll go on an release him/announce him now in return for the delay. If we get two, I'm not too sure who else to predict. I'd LOVE to see a Star Fox DLC Bundle with Wolf, Krystal, and Sector Z, but the chances of that happening are very slim.

Character Want: 100% -- I want Wolf back. #FreeWolf

Stage Chance: 75% -- Not counting the Super Mario Maker stage, I feel like it's pretty likely that we'll get another stage. Rolling with what I said above, I can see Sector Z returning with Wolf, or maybe just a new stage to go with whatever character we end up getting.

Stage Want: 100% -- Who wouldn't?

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

New Stage and New Character
Chance for Both: 50%
I can see this go either way.
Want for Both: 100%
More Content = Yes!

 

[False Sense]

New DLC Character Chance: 25%

It's a definite possibility. If they have anything to reveal, now would be the time.

New DLC Stage Chance: 50%

Same as above.

Want for both: 100%

 

[LIQUID12A]

New DLC Character Chance: 25%

It's a definite possibility. If they have anything to reveal, now would be the time.

New DLC Stage Chance: 50%

Same as above.

Want for both: 100%

Same rating for me. Some closure on those two placeholder Mario slots would be nice.

 

[Troykv]

New Character

Chance: 50%

Coin Flip

New Stage non-SMM

Chance: 90%

The Stages data make this likeable

Want for Both: 100%

 

[dangeraaron10]

New Character
50%
I could see it go either way. I'm predicting Wolf, at least. Either him alone or with someone else. His time is long overdue.

If Wolf is REALLY Pre-Ballot, THIS will be the time to reveal him. Any later and I'll assume there are no more pre-ballot characters left and Wolf has to rely on his votes, which I'm sure he has plenty of.

New Stage
90%
With Dream Land being Stage 1, Sazuko Castle(?) being bundled with Ryu and not having its own page, Peach's Castle being 2, Hyrule Castle being 3, Stage_4 not being present, and Super Mario Maker being Stage_5. Now take that and look at the Stage CSS and while all the stages are center aligned, SMM is NOT, it's shoved off awkwardly to the left, leaving ample room for a second stage to line up with those in the first row. It looks convincing to me.

Want for both: 100%
Obviously

 

[Laniv]

DLC Character Chance: 40%

DLC Stage Chance: 78%

Want: 100%

Personal Predictions: Custom Robo Mii costumes

Predictions for Neku: 3% Chance, 37% Want
Predictions for 3DS Stages on Wii U: 2% Chance, 62% Want

 

[BluePikmin11]

DLC Stage Chance: 99% Didn't we already see the noticeable open spot after Mario Maker's slot?
DLC Character Chance: 50%

 

[Scamper52596]

DLC Character Reveal
Chance: 62.5%
At this point, I feel it's slightly more likely than not that we'll get a character announcement soon, and along with the new DLC stage around the 30th is as good a time as any. Actually getting a DLC character on the 30th is way more debatable since we got an extra two (essentially what were supposed to be surprise characters) officially unannounced characters along with Lucas, so there is some precedent for a scenario like that. But since I'm only rating a hypothetical character announcement and not a release, I'll give the possibility of a character reveal sometime within the next few days a chance of 62.5%.
It seems like it's about time...

Want: 100%
Yes, please, let's just get this over with already...


DLC Stage Reveal
Chance: 79.3%
I'm really expecting this to happen. The fact that when DLC stages have been released in the past, it has always been multiple stages at once thus far. Along with that precedent, we also have clues that help that belief in the form of an empty space in the MM Stage trailer along with some website coding. I'll give the possibility of a stage reveal a chance of 79.3%.
The extra page for the DLC stages will mess with a lot of people's OCD if there isn't another stage...

Want: 100%
I love getting new stages almost as much as I love getting new characters.


Personal Predictions
Along with the extra stage I said I was expecting I'll keep it simple and predict some more Mii Fighter Costumes, a Balance Patch, a possible character reveal within the next few days, and maybe some small updates to online and/or offline modes.

 

[Dejime]

DLC Character: 45% I'm not really sure of it, but I wouldn't be surprised if one is revealed. Maybe it's Wolf time?

DLC Stage: 75% all seems to point to another stage, probably from another smash. (I'd love Inkopolis as a stage, though)

Want: 100% who doesn't want new things?

Prediction: Excluding the obvious balancing, I suppose more Mii costumes are heating in the oven, but i cannot think of anyone right now.

 

[Morbi]

New DLC Character Chance: 25%

It's a definite possibility. If they have anything to reveal, now would be the time.

New DLC Stage Chance: 50%

Same as above.

Want for both: 100%

I was going to post the exact same predictions and "want" as well.

New DLC Character Chance: 25%
New DLC Stage Chance: 50%
New DLC Character Want: 100%
New DLC Stage Want: 100%

As for personal predictions, just to be a troll, Wolf and Isaac Mii Costumes.

 

[Smasher 101]

I'll reveal extra nominations from the last day later tonight.

New Character chances: 50%

I feel this can go either way.

New Stage chances: 80%

This is something I'm expecting.

Want for both: 100%

Of course.

We're also almost certainly due for some new Mii costumes but I don't have any predictions for one beyond that.

 

[Erureido]

September 30th Character Reveal:

Chance: 50%

This will likely come down to a coin flip. I am really certain we will be getting another new stage on the 30th (see my chance rating for the stage addition), though it could come down to either a retro stage or a completely new stage for the newcomer. The reason why I can see a new character happening is because there are still 2 "Mario slots" left (which I'm starting to get a feeling that they are saved for two pre-ballot characters), and with the unknown "stage number 4" in the game, something this could be saved up for a new character reveal in the coming days.

As for who the next character will be, I have a feeling it will come down to either Wolf, Professor Layton, or Shovel Knight (if those rumors are anything to go by).

Want: 100%

"Hey Dr. Eggman, can you come here for a minute? I think you can take this from here."

"Thanks Dr. Eggman! I'll ask you to come back when needed."

September 30th Stage Addition

Chance: 95%

I honestly have a hard time doubting this. The stage placement of the Super Mario Maker stage is just really odd, and considering the data mined information regarding the Mario Maker as "stage number #5" yet there is an unspecified "stage number 4" also looks really suspicious. I really think Nintendo is hiding something that will be revealed in the coming days.

Want: 100%

"Hey Dr. Eggman, I need your help again. I want you to say the magic words."
*Refer back to the above video*
Thanks again Dr. Eggman!

Predictions

3DS stages on the WiiU: 3.75%
Neku Sakaruba (The World Ends With You): 0.30%

Nominations

*In case nominations are still being counted today, I'll just leave this here.

(Concept) BlazBlue representation: x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

September 30th character reveal thing

Chance: 10%
Want: 2%

Stage Addition

Chance: 8%
Want: 1%

Predictions

Neku: Chance: 2.5% / Want: 31%
3DS Stages on WiiU: Chance: 10.3% / Want: 21%

Nominations

Oliver (Fire Emblem) x5

True beauty cannot be cloned!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Predictions:

Character Reveal: 50%
Stage Reveal: 75%

I doubt all they've done so far is make one stage. We've probably got someone waiting in the wings, and I can only hope they're bringing in one or more veterans as pre-ballot (Wolf plz. Also Squirtle and Ivysaur plz). As for stages, everyone's been looking at filenames, but I don't buy that yet. I do however buy that they've had time, and there are loads of retro stages they could also throw in.

I just hope I'm not expecting too much, since that's what left us all disappointed in August. But I know I'm not alone there.

As for personal predictions, I know we're getting Mii costumes because we always do. I think that the Mii outfits would be great places to give tribute to the Nindies that might not sell that well as full characters, but would be selling as outfits. I bet we'll get one or two basic costumes, along with the third-party references.

And I'm hoping for the best.
​

Nom: no more 3rd parties x5

Please also remember that the nom list is being cleaned on the 30th

 

[colder_than_ice]

New DLC Character reveal
Chance: 10% - I actually doubt it.

New DLC stage reveal
Chance: 50% - I feel this could go either way.

Nominations: No Third Party characters after Ryu. x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

DLC CHARACTER REVEAL
CHANCE: 42.79%
WANT: 93.47%

DLC STAGE REVEAL
CHANCE: 71.87%
WANT: 93.40%
​

Next up we're finally rating Neku of "The World Ends with You" fame and the concept of a 3DS stage on the Wii U. Also please predict what score Chibi Robo and............this thread's unofficial mascot will get tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

3DS stage on Wii U

Want: 50%

Depends on the stage. If it's Magicant, Pac-Maze, Gerudo Valley, or Spirit Train, then yes, please! I'd love to play them in HD. Too bad that most, if not all of the songs were included in other stages in the Wii U version already.

Everything Else: ..............You know the drill. (Triple Zeroes)

Predictions:

Chibi Robo - 30%

Zero - 0.4%

He probably won't live up to his name, but he'll certainly get a severely low score.

Nominations: Dan (Street Fighter) x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

*F5s SmashBrosJP's Twitter page*
*no news*



Anyway, double zeroes for Neku and I'm abstaining for the other concept. I don't have much to say today.

-----

Chibi-Robo prediction: 23.52%
The amiibo excitement will probably go down compared to the last time.

Zero prediction: 1.39%
He'll get a non negligible amount of zeroes, isn't it? Ahah.

Nominating:
(Rerate) Playable newcomer: Rayman x5

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

3DS stages on Wii U

Chance 50%

Want: 100%

Neku

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Predictions: Chibi-Robo 30%

Predictions: Zero 0%

Nominations: Mr. Stevenson X5.

 

[SpiritofSpeed]

3DS stages on Wii U:
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

Yes please! 3DS has some great stages.

Neku:
Double zeroes