Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

9-Volt
Chance: 1%
I'm doubtful with his small ballot support and limited support of Wario characters in general; it seems to be the most wanted thing from this series is more Wario Land representation in terms of content and Wario's moveset.

Want: 0%
I personally prefer other characters over 9-Volt.

Monita Prediction: 5.10%
I dunno.

Nominations: Owain 5x

 

[Extremmefan]

Want: 0%
I personally prefer other characters over 9-Volt.

0% Means you hate the character at all costs (like how I hate ).

Now on to the rating...

9-Volt

Chance: 25%
An actual fan of Nintendo who could use the past Nintendo games (NES, SNES, GameBoy, G&W games, among others)? That alone gives him a bit of a bigger chance than the RH characters in my opinion. Also, to me, the only competition I can think of "possible" is Mona (Syrup is out because "Wario Land bias", Ashley and Waluigi along Kat and Ana got deconfirmed because of "AT status", and Jimmy T wouldn't be original enough because , same goes to Dribble and Spitz because ... and Jimmy T would be harder to remove from his "minigame on the 3DS WarioWareInc stage" status) Plus, was added in Brawl (with BOTH of his outfits! ... And the WW one as the main one) so... unlike Cross and Elma (because is a Smash 4 newcomer), 9-Volt has a bigger chance as a new WW rep in Smash 4 (and Mona too). However, he lacks ballot support, but if you noticed, this "Fighter Ballot" everyone here strive for right now is just a "character suggestion box". Plus, the Gamer stage in the Wii U version reference him (it just plain scream "9-Volt"). He's also related to the WarioWareInc stage on the 3DS version without being in it (like most WW characters, including Mona). The only things that are holding him back are lack of popularity (which isn't TOO important, considering the "Fighter Ballot" is more of a "Character Suggestion Box") and (which only represent it's own time and a few NES games only, while 9-Volt could represent "Nintendo gaming history" as a WHOLE!).

Want: 100% (I'M REALLY RATING HIM!)
I'M ALL FOR HIM! ... Mona would satisfy my sister, and 9-Volt would satisfy me. Plus, he, alongside ,, and (and even and to an extend), could easily represent the early times of Nintendo's gaming history together. If he gets in, I'll even consider Smash 4 as better than 64 at least. (But still not better than either Melee or Brawl because of friggin'!)

Monita prediction:
Chance: somewhere near 5
Want: Abstain (I don't think I can read people's minds... And I'm no visionary like either.)

Nominations: ( / is already leaked by sound files) (/ and Daisy had their own days, and don't know if either of them is available for a re-rate)
Viridi (Kid Icarus: Uprising) (Playable newcomer) (My favorite Kid Icarus character)
Prince Fluff (/// Epic Yarn) (Playable newcomer) (My favorite /// character)
Emolga (Pokemon Black/White) (Playable newcomer) (One of my favorite pokemons... Plus, I needed someone to counter 's appearance, by having someone else from another recent generation)
(Metal Gear Solid) (Returning veteran) (My Brawl main, re-ratable, I missed his day)
King Boo (///'s Mansion and many /// spin-offs) (playable newcomer or stage boss on ///'s Mansion stage) (my second favorite character from the /// series. Second only to the great Daisy)
Same exact nominations EVERY TIME UNTIL ONE OF THEM GETS ITS DAY! (I will then choose another character instead of the one who got its day)
(PS: The five nominated are Viridi, Prince Fluff, Emolga, Snake, and King Boo. Both five have a 1x of nomination each)

 

[Smasher 101]

9-Volt's chances: 0.5%

I am extremely doubtful in WarioWare getting another character, and if it did, I think Mona or Jimmy T. would be picked over him. Counting assist trophies, Ashely's also more popular. I can't see 9-Volt making the cut.

Want: 10%

He's always been my favorite WarioWare character, and I'd take him over any of the other WarioWare possibilities simply because of that. Just because I really like a character doesn't mean I think they'd be a particularly good choice for Smash, though.

Monita prediction: 5.24%

Won't be much.

Nominations: Karate Joe x5

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Chance: 4%
Want: 1%

Monita prediction: 4%

Nominations: Gengar 5x

 

[Deleted member]

0% Means you hate the character at all costs (like how I hate ).

Everyone's rating system is different.
Negatives: I hate this character. Get them away from me.
0%: I am not interested in seeing the character at all. I rather see others.
1%-25%: You gained my curiosity, but I rather see others and I don't care too much.
26%-49%: I guess I have some interest, but I don't really care.
50%: Complete indifference. I don't care if they get in or not, but they could have an interesting moveset.
51%-75%: I wouldn't mind seeing them, but there is something about them that I wouldn't be completely open to their inclusion.
76%-99%: Some minor thing is holding them back, but I am completely OK.
100%: YES PLEASE!

 

[Ura]

9-Volt

Chance: 9%

Wario characters aren't all that requested in the fanbase.

Want: 25%

He'd be okay though theirs a bunch of characters I want to see in Smash over him.

Prediction
Monita: 10%

Nominations
Young Link X5

 

[Scamper52596]

9-Volt
Chance: 4.3%
I doubt this character is on Sakurai's radar. WarioWare technically doesn't need any further representation right now. I'll give the Nintendo fan from WarioWare a 4.3% likelihood.
Couldn't find much to say...

Want: 9.2%
I wouldn't mind if WarioWare gets another character. Much like Rhythm Heaven, any character from the franchise is fine with me. I'm just not anxious to get one.

Prediction - Monita: 6.7%

Nominations:
x5 Toon Zelda

 

[StormC]

Spoiler

1. K. Rool: 75%/100%
2. Banjo-Kazooie: 10%/70%
3. Isaac: 60%/40%
4. Bandana Dee: 50%/25%
5. Captain Toad: 25%/15%
6. Krystal: 25%/15%
7. Dixie Kong: 50%/50%
8. Impa: 50%/50%
9. Shantae: 15%/40%
10. Inklings: 55%/40%
11. Rayman: 30%/40%
12. Snake: 40%/70%
13. Wolf: 85%/65%
14. Shovel Knight: 20%/40%
15. Quote: 15%/45%
16. Ice Climbers: 10%/35%
17. Sceptile: 20%/50%
18. Wonder Red: 20%/35%
19. Promoted NPCs: 5%/Abstain
20. Henry Fleming: 15%/15%
21: Paper Mario: 30%/20%
22. Roy: 95%/0%
23. Ridley: 5%/80%
24. Chorus Kids: 25%/35%
25. DLC Alternate Costumes: 75%/75%
26. Magalor: 15%/30%
27. Midna/Link: 1%/5%
28. Ray: 20%/35%
29. Tetra: 20%/20%
30. Pichu: 15%/0%
31. Ryu: 90%/30%
32. Phoenix Wright: 15%/55%
33. Lip: 15%/35%
34. Simon Belmont: 5%/30%
35. Daisy: 15%/0%
36. Ninten: 5%/10%
37. Squirtle/Ivysaur: 20%/30%
38. Layton: 10%/30%
39. Spyro: 5%/30%
40. Music: Abstain/30%
41. KOS-MOS: 0.5%/0%
42. Rhythm Heaven character: 50%/35%
43. Cross/Elma: 10%/30%

Chance: 1%. Don't think Wario is ever gonna get a second character and 9-Volt isn't as popular as other Wario requests.

Want: 30%. Not really interested.

Beast Ganon 5x

Monita prediction: 10%

 

[Troykv]

Everyone's rating system is different.
Negatives: I hate this character. Get them away from me.
0%: I am not interested in seeing the character at all. I rather see others.
1%-25%: You gained my curiosity, but I rather see others and I don't care too much.
26%-49%: I guess I have some interest, but I don't really care.
50%: Complete indifference. I don't care if they get in or not, but they could have an interesting moveset.
51%-75%: I wouldn't mind seeing them, but there is something about them that I wouldn't be completely open to their inclusion.
76%-99%: Some minor thing is holding them back, but I am completely OK.
100%: YES PLEASE!

I use these ones:

0%: GOD PLEASE NO! (Only know one character than can make me use this one)
1%-25%: I don't like to much the idea of have this character
26%-49%: I'm okay... but I see some flaws about his inclussion
50%: Complete neutral. This character have potential, but I'm only "Okay" with the inclussion
51%-75%: I'm actually interested in the character, (s)he isn't my favorite option, but looks like a good idea.
76%-99%: This character is awesome, I think him/her inclusion would be great I want to use in the game.
100%: I WISH WITH ALL MY HEART THAT YOU ARE IN THE FREAKING GAME NOW (YES PLEASE!)

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Edit: @ Sarki Soliloquy
*"highly unlikely"
*gives more than 35%

Well, looks like we don't have the same rating standards for what's "highly unlikely", but whatever.

Uh, what exactly are you talking about?

If this is about my score for Elma & Cross, I guess you caught a minor discrepancy between the "highly unlikely" term and my ratings scale. Keep in mind this is going for chance only:

100% - Confirmed
99% - 75% - Highly Likely
74% - 51% - Likely
50% - Neutral
25% - 49% - Unlikely
24% - 1% Highly Unlikely
0% - Impossible

Keen eye you got there. TBH, I was trying to get that vote out as soon as possible, so I have no time for editing. No, I'm not kidding. That's actually why I didn't bother! I have little time for posting earlier with my job alongside other threads I disproportionally invested time into. By the time I got here, it was getting really late and I needed to barter my sleep time wisely, because it was late enough already.

Also, you are wrong that I gave them more than a 35%. A decimal can be seen as a subscore of a whole number. This actually makes them less likely in my scale.

@ Sarki Soliloquy wins both predictions, and thus gets ten extra nominations today.

Seriously, you have my gratitude! In all my time participating in this iteration of RTC, I thought my mathematically-inaccurate conjectures would never land me some extra noms!

Thank the gods I rolled right on a double day. Maybe I can actually bump up some of my many concepts. They should make for some very constructive discussion.

Spoiler: Captain Hotcakes's Ratings History (as of 5/26/15)

Character Chance Ratings

1: Ryu - 97.7%
1: Roy - 97.7%
2: Wolf - 97.5%
3: Professor Layton - 90%
4: Rayman - 60%
5: Snake - 55%
6: Inkling - 50%
7: Sceptile - 45%
7: Krystal - 45%
8: Paper Mario: 44.5%
9: Dixie Kong - 43%
10: Wonder Red - 40%
11: Impa - 40.5%
12: Simon Belmont - 35%
13: Cross - 35.7%
14: Elma - 35.3%
15: Ice Climbers - 30%
15: Captain Toad - 30%
16: Chorus Kids - 27.5%
17: Magolor - 25%
18: Henry Fleming - 25.7%
19: Spyro - 25.3%
20: Ivysaur - 23.7%
21: Squirtle - 22.5%
22: Quote - 21.5%
23: Phoenix Wright - 20%
23: Shovel Knight - 20%
24: Shantae - 20.5%
25: Tetra - 20.3%
26: 9-Volt - 10%
26: Midna & Wolf Link - 10%
27: Lip - 10.5%
28: Geno - 7%
29: KOS-MOS - 5%
29: Ray - 5%
29: Pichu - 5%
30: Daisy - 5.7%
31: Ridley - 5.5%
-: Monita - ?.?%

Character Want Ratings

1: Professor Layton - 100%
1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Simon Belmont - 90.5%
2: Sceptile - 90.5%
3: Shantae - 87%
4: Wonder Red - 86.5%
5: Snake - 85%
5: Impa - 85%
6: Magolor - 85.5%
7: Ice Climbers - 80%
8: Chorus Kids - 80.5%
9: Ryu - 60%
9: Paper Mario: 60%
10: Midna & Wolf Link - 60.5%
11: Phoenix Wright - 55%
12: Ridley - 50%
13: Inkling - 30%
14: Henry Fleming - 30.5%
15: Rayman - 25%
15: Cross - 25.7%
16: Elma - 23%
16: Quote - 23%
17: Krystal - 20%
17: Dixie Kong - 20%
18: Tetra - 20.5%
19: Squirtle - 10.7%
19: Ivysaur - 10.7%
20: Geno - 10.5%
20: Roy - 10.5%
21: Spyro - 7%
22: Lip - 5.7%
23: Captain Toad - 5.5%
24: Ray - 4.5%
25: KOS-MOS - 3%
26: 9-Volt - 3.5%
27: Pichu - 1%
27: Daisy - 1%
-: Monita - ?.?%

Concept Chance Ratings
1: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - 90.5%
2: DLC Alternate Costumes - 85%
3: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 65.7%
4: DLC Music Packs - 50.5%
5: Rhythm Heaven Character - 45%

Concept Want Ratings
1: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - 100%
1: DLC Alternate Costumes - 100%
2: DLC Music Packs - 65%
3: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 50.5%
4: Rhythm Heaven Character - 40.3%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac
Bandana Dee

Abtsains (Indifference)

Ninten

RATINGS

9-Volt

Chance - 10%: Looks like 9-Volt's going to short-circuit his Ballot chances and consideration! Because WarioWare has extremely low priority for more characters and already has its co-stars offer very little material to help flesh out their uniqueness factors.

This little Nintendotaku does have notability within his own series, being one of the more prominent co-stars with the likes of Ashley & Jimmy T. His Game & Wario minigame, Gamer, was turned into one of the most unique stages in Smash Wii U, which intrinsically ties him with association despite not physical appearing in said stage (oh, but a trophy with his unshrouded mother!) Like, people who aren't familiar with WarioWare will remember Gamer from Smash, perhaps look up more information on it, and find out more about 9-Volt's character from there.

But 9-Volt is caught in a predicament many co-stars from minor franchises face. The main character (in this case, Wario) already represents their series enough that anything else would be periphery. Just about any WarioWare character gets this. So does Animal Crossing. And Pikmin. And R.O.B. And Game & Watch. And Duck Hunt. Even F-Zero, Yoshi, & Punch-Out!! are much better off left to one character!

Not to mention, WarioWare characters are pretty much stuck in their own civil war when it comes to Smash. Each co-star has proportionally-equal support that the base remains broken. And we're not even getting into Wario Land, Wario World, etc., for additional competitors such as Captain Syrup. With something like the Ballot, there's plenty of other series that have stronger character candidates. Sadly, we've observed that WarioWare barely makes a blip.

Overall, 9-Volt will forever remain to be another one character with the very dedicated fanbase, game after game. That is, unless he gets some major promotion from within his own series over the lot.

Want - 3.5%: Sure, 9-Volt could work his best fighting with old retro games and characters. And that's exactly why he is so unappealing to me. He'd be nothing more than a 'tribute' character in a tribute game.

Smash Bros. has a breadth of history and content so wide that just about any asset of Nintendo history will be showcased through cameos, items, stages, trophies, the Chronicle, etc. It brings together generations of Nintendo glory and piles them up into one massive crossover! Why would we need a character to tie them all together when they do just fine by themselves?

Tribute characters are very boring choices for crossover rosters. It's been done enough times to different extents that it's barely something unique anyway. You got Ulala ordering classic Sega character to fight for her in Project X Zone. The character of AGES is composited of old Sega games and hardware in Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed. There's Japan-exclusive Norimaro in Marvel vs. Street Fighter that has absolutely nothing to do with either characters featured and throws Akuma dolls. It feels like relying on these references too much demonstrates how little some characters have to work with. And if you get reaaaally insular with these references, you end up being a stranger to even moderately-versed gamers to any company. There's tons of more efficient ways to represent old and obscure properties than a playable character most of the time.

The closest we've had to this is Pac-Man. Yet that barely applies to him because it's not the sum total of his character, he's 3rd party, and he's so tied into the old Namco arcade titles that he can just kind of get away with it. Not even Duck Hunt gets this low, because they have designs from an entire game to their name to work their moveset around.

Other than that, well, I guess you can get 7-Volt to be a special or assist him in some way. Can't forget about his best manchild friend!

PREDICTION

Monitor

Chance - 6.45%
Want - 4.19%

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x5
*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x2
*Concept: Smash 5 has 10 Year Wait Cycle x2
Galacta Knight x1

 

[YoshiandToad]

Haven't posted here in quite a while. Life's been a bit crazy.

9-Volt
Chance: 8%
Purely as the best candidate to use the remaining peripherals and games consoles through Nintendo's history. 9-Volt represents you, the Nintendo fan, more closely than even the Mii fighter does.

Unfortunately the NES Zapper has already been used in Duck Hunt's moveset, the DK bongos are DK's Final Smash, ROB is a fighter all of his own, Super Scope is an item, and Game and Watch has the system he's named after covered. There's several other peripherals that 9-Volt could use, although very few are famous for the right reasons.

You have the Virtual Boy, the Power Glove, the Gameboy Camera and printer, the E-Reader, the Wii-mote, the Power Pad, 64 transfer pak, the 64 microphone...nearly all of it was junk but 9-Volt could easily celebrate the weird and wacky peripherals that Nintendo have unleashed upon the world over the years.

Want: 75%
Actually, if 9-Volt is used to represent all of those crappy peripherals...I think a fighter of beauty could come out of something so horribly bad.

If he just quirkly uses other retro games characters, I'd drop that want score down to about 10%

Monita Prediction: 5%

Nominations:
Vaati X 3
Meowth X 2

 

[Icedragonadam]

9-Volt:

Chance: 9% The most likely Wario rep next in line since Ashley is an assist trophy. But the series is not as popular as Donkey Kong, and he's doesn't seem to be high up on the Ballot.

Want:10% I prefer other Warioware characters like Ashley, Penny, Orbulon Dribble and Spitz to be honest.

Prediction:

Monita: 7.17%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Uh, what exactly are you talking about?

If this is about my score for Elma & Cross, I guess you caught a minor discrepancy between the "highly unlikely" term and my ratings scale. Keep in mind this is going for chance only:

100% - Confirmed
99% - 75% - Highly Likely
74% - 51% - Likely
50% - Neutral
25% - 49% - Unlikely
24% - 1% Highly Unlikely
0% - Impossible

Keen eye you got there. TBH, I was trying to get that vote out as soon as possible, so I have no time for editing. No, I'm not kidding. That's actually why I didn't bother! I have little time for posting earlier with my job alongside other threads I disproportionally invested time into. By the time I got here, it was getting really late and I needed to barter my sleep time wisely, because it was late enough already.

Also, you are wrong that I gave them more than a 35%. A decimal can be seen as a subscore of a whole number. This actually makes them less likely in my scale.

Seriously, you have my gratitude! In all my time participating in this iteration of RTC, I thought my mathematically-inaccurate conjectures would never land me some extra noms!

Thank the gods I rolled right on a double day. Maybe I can actually bump up some of my many concepts. They should make for some very constructive discussion.

Spoiler: Captain Hotcakes's Ratings History (as of 5/26/15)

Character Chance Ratings

1: Ryu - 97.7%
1: Roy - 97.7%
2: Wolf - 97.5%
3: Professor Layton - 90%
4: Rayman - 60%
5: Snake - 55%
6: Inkling - 50%
7: Sceptile - 45%
7: Krystal - 45%
8: Paper Mario: 44.5%
9: Dixie Kong - 43%
10: Wonder Red - 40%
11: Impa - 40.5%
12: Simon Belmont - 35%
13: Cross - 35.7%
14: Elma - 35.3%
15: Ice Climbers - 30%
15: Captain Toad - 30%
16: Chorus Kids - 27.5%
17: Magolor - 25%
18: Henry Fleming - 25.7%
19: Spyro - 25.3%
20: Ivysaur - 23.7%
21: Squirtle - 22.5%
22: Quote - 21.5%
23: Phoenix Wright - 20%
23: Shovel Knight - 20%
24: Shantae - 20.5%
25: Tetra - 20.3%
26: 9-Volt - 10%
26: Midna & Wolf Link - 10%
27: Lip - 10.5%
28: Geno - 7%
29: KOS-MOS - 5%
29: Ray - 5%
29: Pichu - 5%
30: Daisy - 5.7%
31: Ridley - 5.5%
-: Monita - ?.?%

Character Want Ratings

1: Professor Layton - 100%
1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Simon Belmont - 90.5%
2: Sceptile - 90.5%
3: Shantae - 87%
4: Wonder Red - 86.5%
5: Snake - 85%
5: Impa - 85%
6: Magolor - 85.5%
7: Ice Climbers - 80%
8: Chorus Kids - 80.5%
9: Ryu - 60%
9: Paper Mario: 60%
10: Midna & Wolf Link - 60.5%
11: Phoenix Wright - 55%
12: Ridley - 50%
13: Inkling - 30%
14: Henry Fleming - 30.5%
15: Rayman - 25%
15: Cross - 25.7%
16: Elma - 23%
16: Quote - 23%
17: Krystal - 20%
17: Dixie Kong - 20%
18: Tetra - 20.5%
19: Squirtle - 10.7%
19: Ivysaur - 10.7%
20: Geno - 10.5%
20: Roy - 10.5%
21: Spyro - 7%
22: Lip - 5.7%
23: Captain Toad - 5.5%
24: Ray - 4.5%
25: KOS-MOS - 3%
26: 9-Volt - 3.5%
27: Pichu - 1%
27: Daisy - 1%
-: Monita - ?.?%

Concept Chance Ratings
1: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - 90.5%
2: DLC Alternate Costumes - 85%
3: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 65.7%
4: DLC Music Packs - 50.5%
5: Rhythm Heaven Character - 45%

Concept Want Ratings
1: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - 100%
1: DLC Alternate Costumes - 100%
2: DLC Music Packs - 65%
3: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 50.5%
4: Rhythm Heaven Character - 40.3%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac
Bandana Dee

Abtsains (Indifference)

Ninten

RATINGS

9-Volt

Chance - 10%: Looks like 9-Volt's going to short-circuit his Ballot chances and consideration! Because WarioWare has extremely low priority for more characters and already has its co-stars offer very little material to help flesh out their uniqueness factors.

This little Nintendotaku does have notability within his own series, being one of the more prominent co-stars with the likes of Ashley & Jimmy T. His Game & Wario minigame, Gamer, was turned into one of the most unique stages in Smash Wii U, which intrinsically ties him with association despite not physical appearing in said stage (oh, but a trophy with his unshrouded mother!) Like, people who aren't familiar with WarioWare will remember Gamer from Smash, perhaps look up more information on it, and find out more about 9-Volt's character from there.

But 9-Volt is caught in a predicament many co-stars from minor franchises face. The main character (in this case, Wario) already represents their series enough that anything else would be periphery. Just about any WarioWare character gets this. So does Animal Crossing. And Pikmin. And R.O.B. And Game & Watch. And Duck Hunt. Even F-Zero, Yoshi, & Punch-Out!! are much better off left to one character!

Not to mention, WarioWare characters are pretty much stuck in their own civil war when it comes to Smash. Each co-star has proportionally-equal support that the base remains broken. And we're not even getting into Wario Land, Wario World, etc., for additional competitors such as Captain Syrup. With something like the Ballot, there's plenty of other series that have stronger character candidates. Sadly, we've observed that WarioWare barely makes a blip.

Overall, 9-Volt will forever remain to be another one character with the very dedicated fanbase, game after game. That is, unless he gets some major promotion from within his own series over the lot.

Want - 3.5%: Sure, 9-Volt could work his best fighting with old retro games and characters. And that's exactly why he is so unappealing to me. He'd be nothing more than a 'tribute' character in a tribute game.

Smash Bros. has a breadth of history and content so wide that just about any asset of Nintendo history will be showcased through cameos, items, stages, trophies, the Chronicle, etc. It brings together generations of Nintendo glory and piles them up into one massive crossover! Why would we need a character to tie them all together when they do just fine by themselves?

Tribute characters are very boring choices for crossover rosters. It's been done enough times to different extents that it's barely something unique anyway. You got Ulala ordering classic Sega character to fight for her in Project X Zone. The character of AGES is composited of old Sega games and hardware in Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed. There's Japan-exclusive Norimaro in Marvel vs. Street Fighter that has absolutely nothing to do with either characters featured and throws Akuma dolls. It feels like relying on these references too much demonstrates how little some characters have to work with. And if you get reaaaally insular with these references, you end up being a stranger to even moderately-versed gamers to any company. There's tons of more efficient ways to represent old and obscure properties than a playable character most of the time.

The closest we've had to this is Pac-Man. Yet that barely applies to him because it's not the sum total of his character, he's 3rd party, and he's so tied into the old Namco arcade titles that he can just kind of get away with it. Not even Duck Hunt gets this low, because they have designs from an entire game to their name to work their moveset around.

Other than that, well, I guess you can get 7-Volt to be a special or assist him in some way. Can't forget about his best manchild friend!

PREDICTION

Monitor

Chance - 6.45%
Want - 4.19%

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x5
*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x2
*Concept: Smash 5 has 10 Year Wait Cycle x2
Galacta Knight x1

Is it wrong that I like your post just because of Bear and the Big Blue House?

 

[Leaf_It]

9-Volt:
Chance: Abstain

Want: 50%
Actually sounds pretty interesting from people are saying. I would be interested in seeing him in.

Nominate:
x5 Isaac (Binding of Isaac)

 

[ShinyRegice]

@ Sarki Soliloquy yeah I understand your logic and I don't have much problem with this, just that I disagree a bit with your standards. Personally a Smash contender doesn't have more than 50% chances to be considered "likely", I personally consider a 40% chances to be a very good shot despite having less chance than not. For me likeliness for a Smash character doesn't just depend on "less likely than not = unlikely" and "more likely than not = likely" due to the fact there's limited room for characters and anyone in Smash Bros. is going to be a big deal; not to mention those numbers represent perceived likeliness because Smash characters aren't just chosen through a RNG. It's not comparable with things like the actually statistical accuracy of moves in Pokémon games were a 70% accuracy is actually considered unlikely (looking at you Focus Blast) due to how moves with poor accuracy cause huge consistency issues which cause you to lose many battles just because of the RNG.

tl;dr You can't just apply the "less likely than not = unlikely" and "more likely than not = likely" standards for everything; those are widely different depending on the context and stakes, and you can't apply the same standards for things like a Pokémon move's accuracy, the perceived likeliness of a character getting into Smash Bros. or the risks that a giant meteorite will hit the Earth in the next century and kill the entire humanity. And to be honest, a 40% chances for a character to get into Smash Bros. is actually respectably likely for my standards. But I guess that's just my opinion.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Target Locked!

9-Volt's Chances: 3%

Wants: 3%
Once again, do not get me wrong - I love the WarioWare games and grew up playing them - so I know how 9-Volt relates to any Nintendo player! (Well, I play Sony as well...) But at the moment, I think Wario's fine on his own. If there were to be a second WarioWare character, people would probably go for Ashley.

 

[Erimir]

I don't really care about 9-Volt, but I do care about thinking about probability in a sensible way.

9-Volt chances: 1%
9-Volt want: 4%
Don't think any Wario character is particularly likely, unless they're high on the ballot. I think Ashley is probably getting more support, and her eligibility isn't even assured.

@ Sarki Soliloquy yeah I understand your logic and I don't have much problem with this, just that I disagree a bit with your standards. Personally a Smash contender doesn't have more than 50% chances to be considered "likely", I personally consider a 40% chances to be a very good shot despite having less chance than not. For me likeliness for a Smash character doesn't just depend on "less likely than not = unlikely" and "more likely than not = likely" due to the fact there's limited room for characters and anyone in Smash Bros. is going to be a big deal; not to mention those numbers represent perceived likeliness because Smash characters aren't just chosen through a RNG. It's not comparable with things like the actually statistical accuracy of moves in Pokémon games were a 70% accuracy is actually considered unlikely (looking at you Focus Blast) due to how moves with poor accuracy cause huge consistency issues which cause you to lose many battles just because of the RNG.

tl;dr You can't just apply the "less likely than not = unlikely" and "more likely than not = likely" standards for everything; those are widely different depending on the context and stakes, and you can't apply the same standards for things like a Pokémon move's accuracy, the perceived likeliness of a character getting into Smash Bros. or the risks that a giant meteorite will hit the Earth in the next century and kill the entire humanity. And to be honest, a 40% chances for a character to get into Smash Bros. is actually respectably likely for my standards. But I guess that's just my opinion.

@ Sarki Soliloquy
To expand on why something like a Pokemon move is not comparable to chances to get in Smash...

Pokemon moves are typically used multiple times in a battle. A 30% chance of failure is not too bad if you only have to use it once. But if you have to use it even twice, you're already >50% chance of missing once. If you're using it more than that, the chances that you'll get at least one failure start to get quite high (and the chances of multiple failures become higher too). I'm not in the competitive Pokemon scene, at all, but if a single miss can mess up your match... then yeah, 70% is not good.

Same thing with Smash moves, of course. If you have a 30% chance of your move simply doing nothing, that's not a trivial problem with it. G&W's hammer won't fail that hard - even if you don't get a 9, hitting your opponent will generally cause some knockback, etc.

But what we're talking about here is one chance, get in as Smash DLC or don't. Once you're in, you're in; consistency isn't a factor in this evaluation.

So... calling 24% "highly unlikely"? Imagine we're playing a game that uses dice. I have to roll two D6 dice and if I roll 9 or higher, I win. Does that seem "highly unlikely" to you? To me, I'd say the odds are decently in your favor. But it's not going to be some huge surprise if I win. The chances of a 9 or higher are about 27%... close to the 24% you call "highly unlikely".

Your scaling is a bit off because you're grouping 1%-24% as all being "highly unlikely" doesn't make sense. A 24% chance is, you know, 24 times more likely than a 1% chance. Meanwhile, a 47% chance is less than twice as likely as a 24% chance. You should see the distance between 1% and 24% as actually larger than the distance between 24% and 47% (despite both being, in absolute terms, a 23% difference).

I'd divide the range more like this:

0%-1%
1%-4%
4%-12%
12%-30%
30%--70% Anything in here is a toss-up, but obviously only 50% is a pure toss-up where you have no opinion at all.
70%-88%
88%-96%
96%-99%
99%-100%

Like I said, I find that it's easiest to compare these things to rolling dice since we've all played games like Monopoly. So to use dice as an analogy again... If you're rolling two dice, getting snake eyes is a lot less common than rolling a 3, and so on for 4 and 5. You recognize that rolling snake eyes is quite unlike rolling a 7, you wouldn't consider them as anywhere close to equally likely - yet one is 2.7% and the other is 16%, both within the range you say is "highly unlikely".

So look at the probability distribution for that and think about, well... do I really consider a 7 to be "highly unlikely"? If rolling 7 in Monopoly doesn't strike you as highly unlikely, why would you consider a character highly unlikely... and then give it greater chances than that? If you think about snake eyes, and while you know it's pretty unlikely, you certainly don't think it's anywhere near impossible... then why would you think a 2.7% score is pathetic? It's the same chance. You certainly don't expect it but you don't see it as a ridiculous occurrence. You need snake eyes to land on Boardwalk so you can have Park Place and Boardwalk... you don't see that a hopeless situation, do you? It probably won't happen, but it's not out of the question by any means.

It can be hard to connect the chances to percentages. Especially when we're used to thinking about things like review scores or test scores or election results which are usually given in percentages, and a number like 24% would be pathetic.

But if you think about it in terms of dice or even just convert it to an odds ratio (24% is about 1:3, which isn't great, but not scary bad by any means) it can be easier to think about.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Finally. My character's day has arrived.

9-Volt Chance: 45%
I'm going to try to be as unbiased as possible with this one. WarioWare is a fairly popular franchise with a number of games across many platforms. 9-Volt has been in nearly every single one of them. With Ashley and Kat/Ana (and Waluigi, I guess) already ATs, 9-Volt is one of the most probable characters from WarioWare. Also, he's not Wario Land, so Sakurai won't bias against it. He could have a very unique move set, using peripherals like the Wiimote and Nunchuck, his skateboard, and Virtual Boy (those games are great). If it's Sakurai, move set potential is never an issue. Also, a Nintendo fan in a Nintendo all star battle royale (I'm not sorry for that reference) makes perfect sense. The only thing holding him back is a lack of fan support. This wouldn't be such a problem if it was for the base game, but if people don't vote for him in the ballot, his chances will be shorted out.

Want: 100%
I nominated him all the way up. Enough said

Monita Prediction: Monita? That thing from Nintendo Land? The one with only one arm and a head, screen thing? That Monita? 3.21%

Nominations:
Jiba, Jibanyan. Jiba, Jibanyan x5

 

[IvanQuote]

Killager's brother:

Chance: 27%

He and Mona are probably the most likely Wario candidates, but I don't see Wario series getting a newcomer.

Want: 60% He would make a cool character I feel.

Monita predict:

Chance: 8%

Want: 8%

Nom:

Homecoming Hijinx x2
Moonstruck Blossom x3

 

[colder_than_ice]

9-Volt
Chance: 1% - The amount of support 9-volt gets is almost unbelievably low. I've been following character speculation since before the first trailer and I almost never see him requested on any site or wish list. The official 9-Volt support thread we have on Smashboards has not gotten a single post in the past seven months since BandannaWaddleDee tried to revive it. It also doesn't help that Game & Wario completely tanked.
Want: 40% - I actually think it would be pretty fun to have a character with Nintendo themed move set in SSB, but there are many more characters that I'd rather see.

Monita prediction: 1%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

9-VOLT
CHANCE: 9.30%
WANT: 29.42%​

Next up we're rating Monita of Nintendo Land for some reason, also please predict what score Mach Rider will get tomorrow.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Monita:

Chance and want: ABSTAINED

Prediction:

Mach Rider: 14.96%

Nominate Mother 3 Stage x5

Yeah I'm rushing to turn in before amiibogeddon tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

Monita

Chance: 30%

No one expected Wii Fit Trainer, yet she's playable.

Nearly everyone whose name didn't start with "arcade" and end with "nik" had dismissed the idea of that chuckling dog from Duck Hunt becoming playable, yet here he is, complete with a moveset that serves as a tribute to the NES Zapper.

Call me insane all you want, but I think a playable Monita with a moveset based on several mini-games from Nintendo Land, the game that came bundled with most Wii U systems, is actually plausible. At this point, Sakurai has convinced me that he can conceive a moveset for almost anyone. All Monita really has going against her is lack of demand, but Sakurai could surprise us.

Want: 10%

I didn't like Nintendo Land at all and I wouldn't care much for Monita's inclusion. I'm only slightly curious of what ideas Sakurai has stored in that brain of his.

Prediction: Mach Rider - 5%

Nomination: Zael x5

 

[sogeki]

Monita: The poor man's Navi.

Chance: 35%. Read @KingBro1 's rating.

Want: 65%.

Mach Rider prediction: 17.18%.

Noms: Smash run onnthe wii u x5.

 

[smileMasky]

It's been a bit since I posted here I did not have time due to a new job and all
well here goes
Monita
Chance:4%
she is new but kind of more of an assist character more than anything than being an actual playable :/

want: N/A
I have no right to rate her I have not played her game. so abstained.

Nomination
2 x 3rd party 2nds
2 x Django
1 x Starman (pro wrestling) (yes another obscure character but a unique and first party though*)

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Aetheri gets today's extra nominations.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Quick rating from me today:

Monita Chance:
15% I'll give her the benefit of doubt that she comes a pretty successful franchise and she is a contender for shocking character no one would expect from Sakurai for DLC. It's 3.06 million selling franchise so far, enough to catch Sakurai's eye. And she has pretty unique characteristic of being a manager of a theme park, which you can pull off ride-based attacks from.

I wouldn't give her chances a huge raising in chances though, if a Nintendo Land sequel gets announced, that could potentially have Sakurai consider the character moreso and become a high priority character. since she's kinda out of field really.

Not much to say really
Monita Want:
20%
Not too sure if I want her really, I think she needs revamped personality for me to like her personally, her unique look doesn't interest me.

Nominations:
x5 Jibanyan

 

[NintenRob]

Monita
Chance: 10%
While I could definitly see her getting in Smash, its hard to judge her getting in as DLC, she's not exactly requested and she isn't an icon like Ryu.
Want: 50%

nominate R.O.B. eye bug fix x5

prediction mach rider 9%

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Monita

Chance: 1%

...?

Yeah, WFT came out of left field. As did DHD and a few others. Pit was even a left field in Brawl. They do love their bizarre characters, even when certain characters who've been requested since Melee are still waiting to get in.

But the one difference there is that they're all vanilla. Nobody had to buy them separately. WFT may have been interesting when she was announced, but her popularity dropped precipitously before the game released. If they had released her as DLC, I don't know if she'd get an acceptable purchase rate to give a good return on investment.

So Monita's got nothing going for her, other than she's a character out of left field, which isn't necessarily a plus.

-Brand new, so doesn't have much of a fanbase
-Sm4sh already has enough bizarre chracters, most people want someone more normal
-We already have a floating character (BJ), and a large number of fans would rather see a different flying character instead
-Very limited moveset potential, since she's more of an emcee in her game
-Limited visibility since she's only been in one game, and she was only an organizer on the order of MC Ballyhoo (Mario Party 8, remember him? Didn't think so...)

​

Want: 0%

[casts

Flame Shield]

No. Seriously, no. Is this a joke?

What is this? We have a floating machine, we have a robot, we have retro. I don't need another ROB/BJ/GnW

I don't want to have a new character just because it's got a unique design. I want someone that has history with Nintendo. Someone who I can look at and feel like they deserve to be in. There are too many characters who've been passed over enough, who have been requested to be in since 2001. I think the game needs to look more at the classic era, and not go "OMG RETRO!!! OMG CAME OUT YESTERDAY!!!" - we've got enough of them. And there are only two legit villains thus far - what, every other series doesn't have enemies to fight?

​

No. Not at all.​

Prediction - Mach Rider: 31.0%

Noms: Stage packs x5

​

 

[BluePikmin11]

@ CaptainAmerica
Reread our ratings, she also has the benefit of being a high selling franchise too, she certainly has history with Nintendo.
Being a separate DLC character would be irrelevant to her chances, that's something Nintendo will likely manage and add her in a DLC pack to make her sell. No offense, but some of your arguments against her don't work.

 

[Aetheri]

Monita

Chance: 10%
After Wii Fit Trainer and ROB, I wouldn't hold it against Sakurai to add her, and I'm sure he'd be able to come up with a viable moveset for her...at the same time...WFT and ROB could at least present themselves as fighters in someway whereas Monita is a bit 'unique' in a negative way...Not likely for DLC as most people would likely go 'WTF? Really? No thanks!' rather than actually buy her...

----

Want: 1%
I'd probably be one of those people btw...

----

Prediction: 7.6%
Mach Rider
I have no idea, he's had trophies since melee so Sakurai is aware of him...

----

@ Aetheri gets today's extra nominations.

I'm on fire!!!

*appears to be the trend nowadays*

Nominations:
Dark Samus x10
Dark Samus can duplicate herself and apparently her nominations have as well...

 

[Troykv]

Edit: Change the chance to actual numbers

Monita

Chance: 10%

A character with Monita's characterists can be most useful for a the base CSS... But as DLC I'm not sure... Maybe... She isn't a popular option or is too new, but has game with a lot of sells... Is possible.

Want: 25%

Meh... that is my opinion about this character.

Predictions:

Mach Rider: 15%

Nominations:

Micaiah x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

@ CaptainAmerica
Reread our ratings, she also has the benefit of being a high selling franchise too, she certainly has history with Nintendo.
Being a separate DLC character would be irrelevant to her chances, that's something Nintendo will likely manage and add her in a DLC pack to make her sell. No offense, but some of your arguments against her don't work.

I did read your rating. I don't agree. And this is a forum for opinions. After all, I could point out that Ridley is form a much more established franchise with multiple games which collectively add up to more than 4M sales, AND he's been begged for since 2001.

There's no evidence for (or against) having less-popular characters packaged with more popular ones to get them to sell. The whole idea of Smash DLC is unprecedented, so none of us really know any more than the others.

I'm sorry you disagree with me, but you know what they say about opinions...

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ok, but there are facts that show she doesn't have no benefits to inclusion.
I'm guessing that being out of field was the reason, but you should think about it a little more, just my suggestion.

There's no evidence for (or against) having less-popular characters packaged with more popular ones to get them to sell. The whole idea of Smash DLC is unprecedented, so none of us really know any more than the others..

Though it does seem like something Nintendo would definitely do, after all these are Sakurai's choices, and they can range from popular to unpopular choices, so it's a wise decision to put them in a pair to make them sell.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Monita, Nintendo Land's trusty erm... Moniter.

Chance: 7%
Nintendo Land 2 needs to happen, either in real life or for the NX/Wii U. She also needs the ballot to get in to the game, but I doubt many people are voting for her on the scale of K. Rool or Isaac.

Wants: 47%
Not a bad idea ~ A little joke character that can have potential drawn from the Attractions, and that'd be cool - even though those franchises are already celebrated in Smash Bros like Nazo no MurasameJo. Her being an Assist Trophy would be fine too.

Mach Rider Predictions... 10.84%
Nominations: Sylux X5

 

[Aetheri]

Ok, but there are facts that show she doesn't have no benefits to inclusion.
I'm guessing that being out of field was the reason, but you should think about it a little more, just my suggestion.


Though it does seem like something Nintendo would definitely do, after all these are Sakurai's choices, and they can range from popular to unpopular choices, so it's a wise decision to put them in a pair to make them sell.

Keep in mind DLC is about 'making people happy'...the vast majority are asking for a multitude of characters whereas hardly anyone is asking for Monita...being left field is beneficial for the base lineup but for paid DLC it is beneficial to take less risks...
I could see her making a cool assist trophy, but as playable, nah...

 

[BluePikmin11]

Yeah, and he can make fans happy in multiple different ways that isn't mainly just characters people request.
That quote is very vague and it can mean multiple things.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Monita
Chance: 1%
I need to go on the basis of the ballot.
We have seen many out of field characters get in Smash, most recently with Duck Hunt and Wii Fit Trainer, but I don't think Sakurai would do that again for DLC.
Now, before people pull out Roy or Ryu with my reasoning, I have to counter this with facts about them:
Roy is a veteran and one of the most requested characters in Japan. He could also be a clone, meaning that he would be easy to implement in Smash.
Ryu is a gaming icon and already has a moveset; implementing him would be easy. Due to his iconic status, he would sell.
Monita would give off limited sales and I think that the crowd would be a lot more critical if she got in over other more requested characters. I think that having a character like this would be a lot more risky now than let's say Wii Fit Trainer getting confirmed at E3 2013.
I won't deny the possibility that Sakurai would add her as a surprise, but I am incredibly doubtful that such a move out happen.

Want: 0%
Honestly, Nintendo Land didn't capture my interest for very long and Monita wasn't a character that really stuck out to me. And, as a fighter... I'm not invested.

Mach Rider Prediction: 15.88%
In before dead leaks.

Nominations: Owain 5x

 

[Aetheri]

Yeah, and he can make fans happy in multiple different ways that isn't mainly just characters people request.
That quote is very vague and it can mean multiple things.

All I'm saying is that if he wants to make the fans happy he's not going to add someone from left field. Monita is too much of a bizarre choice for DLC
If they weren't in the game yet these characters would most likely not be added as DLC, because of obscurity or peculiarity...Sakurai can still surprise us and make us happy...(tbh any newcomer announced for DLC will be a pleasant surprise no matter their support)
As I've said Monita would make a cool Assist Trophy, but as a playable fighter? Not as DLC...

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Monita

Chance: 10%

Want: 1%

Predictions: Mach Rider 9%

Nominations: BB bandit trio X5.