Please read this before giving Kaptain K. Rool a flat zero in chances because "muh not main persona!!"
Kaptain K. Rool chances:
8.35%
Before dismissing the idea because "muh it's not his main persona!!" try at least to think about all the speculation about a character from FE13 as a newcomer for SSB4 which used to happen over one year ago, how Robin wasn't taken seriously by a lot of people who only saw Chrom as an eligible choice due to him being the "main protagonist" (and Gematsu too but that's another story), and how these people were caught off guard by this July 14th reveal at how awesome Robin's moveset was. Despite being the single main protagonist of Awakening, Chrom was judged not interesting to design a moveset for by Sakurai himself, thus he looked at the best next thing who is still a very prominent character in this game, enough to be worthy of being the new Fire Emblem representative, and he easily crafted in his mind a coherent and believable moveset with a unique feeling for him.
How is this relevant
RECENCY!!!!1!1!! to the subject, you may ask? Because if Sakurai doesn't manage to imagine a satisfying moveset for King K. Rool, then it's completely possible that he will look at the next best thing, consider it as worthy of representing the K. Rool character, and give him a pirate-themed moveset that uses the blunderbuss in a very extensive way! It's not like taking a less iconic look for a character in Smash as the default representation of that character is unprecedented - Wario anyone? There's also a strong evidence that may lead towards Sakurai choosing Kaptain over King - yeah I'm talking about the Kosplay. I mean, asides from making fun of him, Sakurai tried to do justice to Chrom without making him playable, by making him part of Robin's Final Smash and one of his victory poses, and even selling a Mii costume based on him. In a similar way, it's possible that Sakurai choose the less straightforward choice to represent the K. Rool character, yet still wanted to do justice to his most iconic look by making it a Mii costume instead. It's often speculated that the textures from the Kosplay come from an actual playable King K. Rool in development in order to tease fans while making even more money out of his name, but it could actually be taken at least partially from reused assets from Kaptain K. Rool instead!
And before shouting "MUH SO MUCH WASTED MOVESET POTENTIAL" at me please put down the torches and pitchforks. First, I'll say it right now: no, I won't pretend that King K. Rool is redundant, generic, or unworkable. And yeah, sure, he has a lot to work at his disposal, he has a crazy blunderbuss, he can use electricity traps, fly with an helipack, use boxing gloves... but what about a moveset including all of these? K. Rool never used them all in the same boss fight, he used all this material in different fights where he adopted different personas, and many of these things thematically clash when put together. Whereas the likes of Villager, Bowser Jr. and Mega Man work wonderfully while having movesets based entirely on using extensively varied stuff: Villager's moveset is mostly inspired from things an average real-life person may own in their house, Bowser Jr. hides all of his weaponry under his Koopa Clown Car, and Mega Man is all about using and switching very varied stuff in his own games. There's also a reason why you won't see Mewtwo use the likes of Flamethrower or Ice Beam or Earthquake in Smash despite him being able to learn these moves in Pokémon games.
Remember when I said that King K. Rool is
not an unworkable or uninteresting character when it comes to design a moveset? Yeah, I'm sure a K. Rool moveset where the King persona borrows a few accessories from his alter egos may work. Some characters actually have a few moves that may not fit their overall theme very well, such as Rock Blast for Charizard, or Kirby's special moves he can uses at any time without his generally needed copy abilities, or while we're talking about them, Villager using a mini-rocket that looks like a cork stopper, or Mega Man using the Mega Upper which is unrelated to the platformer series he's mostly inspired from. King K. Rool using Kaptain's blunderbuss for a few moves I'm sure would work well, it doesn't clash with the King persona
that much. The helicopter pack I'd say clashes much more with it, though it used as a recovery move and nothing else it would work fine.
That said, I have a feeling Sakurai may potentially see Kaptain K. Rool as the superior choice when it comes to designing a moveset. Using the Kaptain persona allows to use the blunderbuss in a much more extensive way without feeling out of place, even allowing for unique creative liberties, like using it as a flamethrower; it also makes sure his entire moveset feels like it is clearly themed and coherent, in this case around pirates, and you may even add a few attacks that use a hook or a sabre as additional creative liberties for a true pirate feeling! By choosing a clear theme for your character rather than just "stuff they uses from their games" you make sure your character will feel unique, inspired, believable and coherent while still getting the right to use creative liberties, all without making your character's moveset feel forced or all over the place.
Overall if K. Rool is going to be playable I'd still mostly expect the King persona as default, with a few moves borrowed from his alter egos. But with the room for creativity opened by only focusing on the Kaptain persona, and the fact the Kosplay could possibly be an evidence that Kaptain was chosen as K. Rool's main protrayal in Smash, I wouldn't be shocked if it was the route Sakurai took. Yet at the same time I kinda have a hard time imagining Kaptain K. Rool getting in over Dixie Kong... King K. Rool without Dixie could work because we already have two major DK protagonists, and Dixie did her series debut after K. Rool after all, but getting the main antagonist of a game (in this case, DKC2) before both of its playable protagonists may seem kinda weird.
I think Kaptain K. Rool over King K. Rool is a very plausible outcome, in spite of not exactly being a likely one, and he really doesn't deserve to get flat zeroes in chances just because he's not K. Rool's main persona. I mean, it's not like we were rating Baron K. Roolenstein
If you want to see other essays I've written about this subject, here they are:
My thoughts about King K. Rool's potential issues when it comes to moveset design
Pretty much a summed up version of this chances explanation
And while we're at it:
My Kaptain K. Rool moveset
Kaptain K. Rool want:
100%
Any form of playable K. Rool is okay in my book as long as it does justice to the character. My only minor complaint about Kaptain over King, besides the later being more iconic, is that DKC2 was, among the main four Rare Donkey Kong titles (the DKC trilogy + DK64), the only one I've never beaten as a kid (stupid Toxic Tower), but now that I've beaten it on Wii U virtual console this actually becomes kind of irrelevant. The Kaptain persona is very popular, mostly due to the awesome boss fight during which K. Rool is always putting heavy pressure on you, and also with the awesome atmosphere of the fight with
its music and the aesthetics of the area which perfectly match the entire game's dark feeling. As such I think Kaptain is worthy of being the main representation of the character as a whole, especially considering it is still acknowledged in other games such as cameo pictures in Donkey Kong 64, or even being mentioned in Wrinkly Kong's trophy description over King K. Rool in Smash Wii U! Plus the pirate theme fits him and the Kremlings very well. Potential moveset-wise I'm also more interested in Kaptain, as you may notice in my moveset linked above; to give you an idea, I had to think a long time to imagine a satisfying King K. Rool moveset, while I comparatively managed to imagine a pretty much fully satisfying Kaptain K. Rool moveset in no time! (Granted, a lot of moves from my Kaptain moveset include reused assets from my King moveset ideas)
Anyway, I just want to play as K. Rool in Super Smash Bros. with his unique moves, not as a King K. Rool cosplayer!
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Reyn chances:
0.12%
Eh, seems like a huge stretch. He's very popular in the West, but apparently less in Japan due to having a more generic personality over there from what I've read. And while it may not mean much, Shulk's down smash is inspired from a art used by Reyn himself.
Reyn time want:
3%
Meh. Not really interested.
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Magolor prediction:
5.88%
I don't really know...
NPC promoted to playable prediction:
23.24%
I doubt it will change much.
Nominating:
Balance change: universal hitstun increase x5
@
CaptainAmerica
I believe my 15 nominations for Squirtle and Ivysaur (with the extra noms from Muddy Mole and R.O.B. eye glitch fix) weren't counted in the current nomination list, could you fix this please?