Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Kenith]

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 25%.
Admittedly higher than some. Kirby getting a fourth character is very justified with it's success and this guy is evidently moving up in the world, having his own "name" and a weapon.

Want: 0%.
Not only do I see a new Kirby character as completely unnecessary (especially compared to certain other characters), but this is probably my least favorite choice. I can't see how he'd be an interesting character in any way.
Not to mention his vicious bandwagon support on Smashboards has turned me off of the idea completely. The fact that they put this character over Meta Knight and King Dedede is just wrong...and I don't even like them.

Balloon Fighter:

Chance: 1%.
Like it or not, this guy's main unique gimmick is taken by the Villager. Hell, they even have the Villager using his Up Special representing Balloon Fight in the Masterpieces menu. The main thing he's known for is flying around and dodging obstacles.

If Sakurai wants to add yet another old-school Nintendo character, he's better off adding Takamaru (popularity) or Excitebike (uniqueness).
I also don't think the push of small support after Iwata's passing will convince the devs otherwise. Speaking of which...

Want: 0%.
Before Iwata's passing I would have been disinterested in this character. But I feel like people used the man's death to get people on the bandwagon for Balloon Fighter; and that disturbs me greatly.
If Balloon Fighter supporters REALLY wanted to honor Iwata, they should have asked for a trophy or something; this feels like a cheap way to capitalize on his unfortunate passing.

So yeah, I'm not a fan anymore.

---
Someone give me ideas on what to nominate.

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 25%
He doesn't have anything in the way, but he isn't as requested as some of the other characters, though he's close.

Want: 30%
I'm not too crazy about a 4th Kirby rep, unless its Escargoon or Customer Service.

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 10%
I really don't see them adding him, but he's got alot of content in the game.

Want: 10%
I just can't picture a good moveset for him, nor have I really played the game.

Predictions: FE rep thing? 7%

Predictions: Ken alt 4%

Nominations: Sturm X5.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 1% (Villager took the balloons... and he won't be added just because Iwata created him)
Want: 0%

Bandana Dee
Chance: 50% (It's 50/50 imo, he is popular and has moveset potential, and has no competitors from his own series, but his popularity in polls varies (unlike other popular newcomer candidates K. Rool and Isaac, who are always high) and while they can be unreliable they're the only way to gauge character's popularity)
Want: 100% (My second most wanted character after K. Rool)

Another FE-related thing prediction: 2%
Ken alt prediction: 2%

Nominations:
Saffron City 3x
Meta Crystal 2x

 

[FalKoopa]

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 0%
After Villager took away his most defining characteristic, I'm inclined to think that his chances are dead, at least as far as Smash 4 is concerned. Future games may update his moveset and make Balloon Fighter a viable candidate again.

Want: 40%
I like him and I like the game, so yeah.​

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 40%
He is a character who probably has the least obstacles in his way... He's new, he's relevant, he's popular and HAL continues to push him. What's not to like?

Want: 100%
I've been a Dee supporter ever since I played RtDL. Kirby can certainly do with one more character.​

 

[Chromfirmed]

Hi!

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 0%
After Villager, the entry is impossible.

Want: 0%
I don't like the character and I think at the moment, he would contribute little to Smash.

Bandana Dee:
Chance: 35%
Something like Duck Hunt, although also he is from another company, but that may not be a problem.

Want: 5%
Fails to convince me, so I have other priorities.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Man, been a while since I posted here:

Balloon Fighter: 0%

As others have said, his primary (and essentially only) gimmick has been taken by Villager. Pretty much puts him out of the running.

Want: 5%

Doesn't interest me, but I only give out zeros to characters I hate the ideas of. This is not one of them.

Bandana Dee: 45%

Of the Kirby cast, Bandana Dee is easily the most likely candidate, and arguably the only one who actually stands a chance at all. And the most popular as well. The little guy's gotten quite the following, and HAL's certainly taken enough of a liking to him as well to include him in so many of the more recent Kirby titles, often with big roles too.

The only problem, apart from general competition, is the question as to whether Kirby needs another character, and how Sakurai would feel about it. The big obstacle there is that Sakurai is very modest...and perhaps, a bit paranoid, about Kirby content in the Smash series, in case of the situation that people will complain about Kirby being "too powerful" or his series getting "too much" content over bias on it being a series he created. That's the main issue.

However, with the following he's gotten and the love he's been getting from both fans and in Kirby games as of late, perhaps Sakurai will be willing to overlook that and give the little guy a chance. I certainly hope he does!

Want: 95%

Not having him wouldn't kill me, but I really, really would like him to be in. I've grown very fond of him and think his capabilities would make him really fun to play too. He's got a lot of potential.

Ghirahim x5

 

[SpiritofSpeed]

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 0%
Pretty much what everyone else has said - Villager's taken his move.

Want: 0%
Obscure.

Bandana Dee:
Chance: 25%
Kirby could use another representative.

Want: 25%
Has potential, and could have some interesting movesets.

 

[Scamper52596]

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 1.4%
Retro characters as DLC will be a hard sell to most people since the iconic ones are already in the game anyways. For that reason I don't think we're going to see a retro DLC character unless it's Ice Climbers, and the Ice Climbers have their own problems. I also don't feel as if Iwata's passing improves the Balloon Fighter's chances. Not to mention the Villager's Up Special takes the most iconic thing about Balloon Fighter and makes it his own. I'll give the protagonist of Balloon Fight a small rating of 1.4%.
Maybe in a future Smash installment...

Want: 15%
He doesn't really appeal to me, but I probably wouldn't mind too much.


Bandana Dee
Chance: 14.2%
I'm not convinced his chances are all that great. While Bandana Dee does in fact continue to be a prominent figure in the newer Kirby games, Sakurai hasn't worked on those Kirby games and continues to acknowledge the older Kirby games in his Smash titles. He is indeed a recognizable character from the Kirby franchise, but I feel that most of the general audience is still going to see him as a basic enemy from the franchise instead of an actual character. That's a problem because a lot of people won't be inclined to purchase what they feel to be a generic Goomba-like enemy as a playable character. It doesn't help that, like Kid Icarus, the Kirby franchise is more than likely already well represented enough in the eyes of Sakurai, especially with Dreamland 64 as a DLC stage, so he probably isn't considering giving the Kirby franchise another playable character. I'll give the spear wielder a total of 14.2%, which is an 11.8% drop from my original rating.
Bandana Dee is definitely the most likely new Kirby representative, but I just don't think Sakurai is interested...

Want: 31.3%
I wouldn't necessarily mind his inclusion, and I'm even a little curious as to how the development team would go about making him a playable character. I'm just not all that attached or interested.

 

[Elec]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 57%

Bandana Dee has a lot of things going for him, like how he's really popular in the ballot, he has no competition within his series & moveset potential. The only thing that's holding him back is what Sakurai would think.

Want: 100%

My avatar & signature surely don't give it away, right?

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 2%

He's only got popular because of a man who worked on his game had died recently. Villager also took his main gimmick so I doubt we will see him in.

Want: 17%

I wouldn't mind him being in Smash, its just that I cannot see him in Smash.

 

[Troykv]

Bandana Dee

Well... Is time to check old post:

Bandana Dee

Chance: 25%

If by adding to the character of Kirby, he is the most obvious choice, but turns out to be a character that produces mixed views on people, and also could be considered to be ignoring considering the "Sakurai Bias"

Want: 65%

Not exactly the character I most want to see, but Kirby is one of my favorite Nintendo franchises and would love to see Bandana Dee usable.

Updated Rates:

Chance: 25% --> 32%
Want: 65% --> 75%

Bandana Dee is one of the few characters that I actually care.

But still isn't my Top wanted.

Ballon Fighter

Chance: 10%

Sounds like a weird idea do a character for the "In memory of"'s sake... Anyway, all his Ballot Support has that as his main reason to suppot him.

Want: 10%

Meh... Looks like a boring idea only wanted for the bandwagon. I want to see characters that have fun moveset! No repping something for the repping's sake! (unless you're K. Rool... DK is still waiting have a third character... And K Rool also is fun with his potential!)

Predictions:

Genei Iburoki #FE character: 1.9%
Ken Alt Costume: 2.6%

Nominations:

Idolm@ster Mii costume x3
Rerate! Shantae x2

 

[Deleted member]

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 30%

That's 5% above my original score. Sakurai bias or not, he's still the most likely Kirby character due to his popularity.

Want: 90%

I still would enjoy a moveset centered around the spear.

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 1%

I think the Villager's Up + B will be the closest we'll get to having this guy. The Ballon Fighter lacks moveset potential.

Want: 0%

Not interested.

Predictions:

Genei Ibun Roku #FE Rep - 1.3%

Full Ken Alt for Ryu - 2.5%

Nomination: King K. Rool Rerate x5

 

[LIQUID12A]

Balloon Fighter finally got revenge on his impostor, who went back to digging fossils. Let's avoid such a scandal, yes?

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 5%
Want: Abstain

As DLC, I doubt it. Villager stole his balloons and left him in the dust. In general, I wouldn't expect retro icons as DLC.

Bandana Dee

Chance: 35%
Want: 30%

This one's a bit of an oddball to describe. Bandana Dee, in practice, has pretty much nothing against him, with the only true roadblock being possibly Sakurai himself. We've seen little to nothing from modern Kirby this time around, and since Kirby is stocked with the protagonist and two anti-heroes(one of which is a villain in designation), Sakurai might feel as a result that it's represented well already. Of course, we don't know that, but regardless BD is still the most likely Kirby candidate.

And honestly, Kirby's in a middle road for me in terms of extra content. I want other series to get stuff before it, but at the same time Kirby feels just under the averagely represented ones, so I'm impartial to the idea, particularly since this is an otherwise popular character.

Predictions

#FE character: 2.7%
Ken alt: 3%

Nominate: Rundas x5

 

[Laniv]

Balloon Fighter:

Chance: 1%


Want: 60%
I did have him pegged for the retro spot.


Bandanna Dee:

Chance: 60%
Unlike other top picks, the Dee has almost nothing going for him on paper.

Want: 96%
He's one of my top picks for a Kirby character.

Predictions for SMTxFE character: 12% Chance, 35% Want
Predictions for Ken alt: 7% Chance, 47% Want

Nominate Daisy rerate x 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Balloon Fighter Chance:
10%For the most part, Iwata's death message has made a large impact on Sakurai himself, so it is pretty likely that Sakurai is going to add Iwata content in some form. When I think about it more, I feel like a Mii costume of Balloon Fighter is more likely at this point.

I do want to address that, the Balloon Trip move for Villager does not encompass a whole play-style as Villager's playstyle does not encompass the use of Balloon Trip all of the time. So Balloon Fighter can still be that character whose play style revolves entirely on balloons for combat.

Bandanna Dee Chance:
17.5% Same as last time I think, only a bit more because of his increasing relevance.

The merits for Dee are the same:
1. relevance to the main Kirby games.
2. popularity to be considered.
3. importance to the main Kirby games.

Only thing I changed my mind a bit on is of his moveset potential really. I might've over-exaggerated on the lack of moveset potential as Return to Dreamland has provided one for Dee already. I still do not think it's a distinct play style since his tip of the spear play style has been taken by Marth.

The other flaw he might have is that Sakurai might question why people are voting for Bandanna Dee, he might just see him as the minor character and unnecessary addition he once was before Return to Dreamland made him playable.

Overall Bandanna Dee's chances are slightly increasing as he gains more prominence in many Kirby games. He still has to face with Sakurai and his view on the Kirby series still.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Bandana Dee
Chance: 20%
I'll copy and paste since nothing new happened:

Bandana Dee
Chance: 20%
Now this is a very tricky rating for me to do...
First, the positives. Bandana Dee is the rising star of the Kirby series. He was playable in Returns to Dream Land, was placed alongside Meta Knight and King Dedede for the 20th anniversary game and was featured with them in promotional material, helped Kirby in Kirby Triple Deluxe (where Meta Knight was MIA), and was playable in Rainbow Curse when King Dedede and Meta Knight were both MIA; it's important to note this as Hal seems to be wanting to promote the little guy. Second, he would be a unique fighter with his spear ability; the ability basically writes a majority of his moveset and we never had a spear user before. Third, Bandana Dee has some requests, though he isn't as requested as King K. Rool. Fourth, Kirby is a pretty popular series and is justifiable for another character.
Now, the negatives. First, he's a newcomer, meaning that more time will be spent on creating his moveset. Second, while Bandana Dee is greatly requested, he is still a pretty polarizing newcomer choice; you either love him or hate him to get in the game. Lastly, and the thing that hurts Bandana Dee the most, recent Kirby games barely have any representation in Smash currently. The most the new Kirby games received were some trophies, music, and Kirby gaining a new Final Smash and Bandana Dee himself is MIA. Sakurai seems to favor his older games rather than any of the recent ones...
Ultimately, I do think that Bandana Dee is among the most likely for this game, but he still has obstacles to overcome.

Want: 100%
Easily one of my most wanted characters. I'm a big fan of the character and Kirby.

Balloon Fighter
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes
Villager's up special is Balloon Trip, which hurts his chances significantly. His ballot support is limited.
While I do want to see Iwata be honored in some form, I think a character is the wrong way to do it.

SMTxFE Character Prediction: 2.02%
Looking unlikely.
Ken Alt Prediction: 7.52%
This is very doubtful.

Nominations: Amaterasu 5x

 

[Smasher 101]

@~Krystal~ wins for Pious, and @ Zerp wins for Fossil Hero.

 

[Magikarpow]

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 5%

Want: 50% - I've seen some very unique Balloon Fighter movesets, and I even created one myself. He doesn't need Villager's Up-B to function and I've wanted him LONG before Iwata's death.

Bandanna Waddle Dee
Chance: 20% - This may seem a little low, but it's hard for me too imagine him being added. His best shot is the ballot.

Want: 5% - I wouldn't be mad if he got in, but he's only been playable in two games so far and 90% of his moves would just be spear pokes.

SMTxFE Character: 0% - The game is far too late in development to get a character, and probably isn't even all that important to Nintendo in the long run.

Ken Alt: 1% - If they didn't add a Ken alt in the first place why would they add one now.

 

[Chalo5000]

Bandana Waddle Dee
Chance: 45%

There's nothing really going against him

Want: 100%

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 3%

Want: Abstain

Rundas x 5

 

[Sun & Moon]

Bandana Waddle Dee
Chances - 40 %
Want - 100%
Easily my most wanted character.

Ballon Fighter
Chances - 5%
Want - Abstain
Never played his game, so I can't make a proper judgment.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 60%
Not going to repeat what I've said the last time since not much had changed. He's a well requested character with some potential thanks to his spear and association with the Waddle Dee species. At least in a better situation in comparison to low priority characters like Dark Matter and Adeliene.

Want: 70%
Return to Dreamland and Kirby Super Star Ultra managed to turn this guy from the most laughable opponent in Megaton Punch to my favorite member of the Dedede Army. Spears are a must in Smash and he has a better chance of being included over another character of mines (Azura).

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 10%
Got a lot of content and Villager does have a homage to him that Up Special (not like it means much). He's a bit of a mixed bag due to the aforementioned bandwagon after Iwata's passing and many feel that he wouldn't do much with balloons. We don't know if his new support in the ballot will even break the Top 30 at this point.

Want: 100%
To be honest, he should have been playable since Melee since he's as iconic as any "retro" Nintendo character can get. Everyone and their grandmother knows who he is (cameo or not) and I would enjoy playing as the original air fighter (Though Sky Runner exists).

Predictions: Genei Ibun Roku #FE 3%
Inb4 plenty of weaboo bashing and irrelevance.

Predictions: Ken alt 4%
Not gonna happen, not at all.

Nominations: Mini-Kangaroo x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Gonna be quick
Balloon Fighter
Chance: 1%
Want: 25%

Bandana Dee
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%

Weeb thing prediction: .69%
Ken alt prediction: .97%

Nominations:
Klefki x5

 

[BlueZard]

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 5%
Villager's recovery really seems to kill his chances, doesn't it? Sure, there is a Balloon Fighter stage in the 3DS version. But... That's pretty much it.

Want: 10%
I'm not necessarily rooting for him, but I wouldn't be upset if he got in. I'd be perfectly fine with it. It's just that there are other characters that I want a whole lot more than this character. Speaking of which...

Bandana Dee

Chance: 45%
I actually feel like this guy is somewhat likely. Maybe not THE MOST likely, but he still has a lot of stuff going for him. He has a unique weapon, he already has a variety of attacks, he's becoming a main character in his franchise, he seems to have a pretty big amount of support... And I don't see much going against him, either, aside from maybe some characters simply being more popular. And then again, we don't know the exact standings of the official ballot, so... Yeah.

Want: 100%
This is my most-wanted character, and the only character I actively support. I voted for him, and no one else. I will be incredibly happy if he gets in, and I will make sure that I get the funds and buy that DLC!

 

[Lord-Zero]

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 20%

Unique weapon not represented in Smash which would open a way for a clone-less moveset.

Want: 10%

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Genei IbunRouku #FE rep: 2.3%

We still don't know much about the game.

Ken Alt: 0%

Nominations:

Black Shadow (F-Zero) x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Can't explain right now, maybe I'll get to edit this later...

Bandana Dee's chances: 20%
Want: 5%

Balloon Fighter's chances: 1%
Want: 10%

Ken alt prediction: 1.28%
The other thing: 2.10%

Nominations: King K. Rool rerate x5

Might as well get this over with, even if I personally feel the effect the costume has on his chances isn't very much...

 

[FEEHEELINGGS...Wo Wo Wo]

Bandana Dee's Chances: 80%
He is become a popular character in the ballot.
Want:100%
A huge fan of the Kirby series (gasp), Bandana Dee could be the rep for Modern Kirby, and a unique weapon.
Balloon Fighter's Chances: 1%
Villager already took his most iconic move.
Want: 0%
I agree with M.P. he shouldn't be added just because Iwata created him.

 

[FunAtParties]

Bandanna Dee
Chance: 65%
Character definitely has popularity on it's side. No red tape, or big obstacles to get through. I think it has a really good chance.

Want:15%
I can see the potential, but I'm not in love with it. Very meh to me.

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 3%
There was a recent push, because of Iwata's passing, but it wasn't all that significant. Seeing that most of the hype has died doen, I don't see him having anything going for him.

Want: 10%
Wouldn't mind seeing him, especially if Sakurai makes him the one of the most aerial-fluent characters in the game, but in truth it doesn't matter to me that much.

SMTxFE rep: 4%
Fans of the idea will drive up the score, but this is really really unlikely and most people will see that.

Ken alt: 1.5%
Don't see why this is a thing. Maybe a Mii Fighter costume, but I don't see actual characters getting new costumes let alone full character alts.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Bandanna Dee
55% Chance
100% Want

Baloon Fighter
10% Chance
100% Want

Nominating Melee Pokemon Stadium x 5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Bandanna Dee
Chance: 30% - He's pretty much the guaranteed 4th Kirby rep if we get one.
Want: 80%

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 1% - The Villager just dropped by to say hi.
Want: 0%

Nominations: King K. Rool x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[FancySmash]

Bandana Dee

Chance - 40%
It's a very hard to predict situation, after the costume DLC fiasco.

Want - 100%
What can I say, he's my most wanted newcomer.

Baloon Fighter

Chance - 0%
Well, Villager pocketed his balloons, so...

Want - 50%
Eh, I can go either way.

 

[colder_than_ice]

BANDANNA DEE
CHANCE: 38.01%
WANT: 65.86%

BALLOON FIGHTER
CHANCE: 3.65%
WANT: 21.39%
​

Next up we're rating the concepts of a Full Ken Alt for Ryu and a Fire Emblem X Shin Megami Tensei rep. Also please predict what score Rundas and Baby Mario will get tomorrow.

@ FancySmash I counted your score.

 

[Double0Groove]

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 25%

Due to the passing of Iwata, a good deal of fans have decided on shifting gears In order to make him a playable character. I utterly respect that choice, but because the large majority of fans either don't want to prioritize him over their character of choice or have some stupid line of thinking( like, The Villager having the balloons as his/her recovery) his chances don't look so hot. Plus there's a lot of difficulty in throwing a moveset together for him, so I wonder if Sakurai would even go through with it.

Want: 100%

I'd love to see him in.

Bandana Dee

Chance: 80%

He has a lot of supports, his completion is steep, but his inclusion could very easily happen.

Want: 64%

His moveset potential is interesting... Very interesting indeed...


Nominations:
New Mii fighter class DLC x5

 

[FunAtParties]

Ken alt
Double zeroes
I don't see nor want Sakurai putting time into this.

SMTxFE rep
Chances: 2%
Doubt the game will be out by the time Sakurai is done with DLC, so relevancy certainly not a point. Popularity doesn't seem to be in play either. So I don't see it.

Want: 0%
Like both series, but I'm done with any FE related, and think that there are many better 3rd party choices out there.

Predictions
Rundas: 18%
Baby Mario: 1%

 

[Deleted member]

Spoiler: Ken's Theme - Street Fighter II (Smash 4 Remix)

Full Ken Alt for Ryu

Chance: 1%

If this concept already crossed Sakurai's mind, then the costume likely would have already been bundled with Ryu himself.

Want: 50%

I wouldn't be against it since Ken was an exact clone of Ryu in Street Fighter I/Fighting Street and the original version of Street Fighter II, but I'd rather have Ken be a separate character with his flaming Shoryuken from later entries in the series unless if DLC characters get custom moves.

Genei Ibun Roku #FE Rep

How is this pronounced? Geh-nei Ee-boon Roh-koo Hashtag FE? That doesn't roll off the tongue very well.

Chance and Want: Double Zeroes

The game won't be out until next year.

As for want, I'm somewhat interested in the game (not as much as Xenoblade X, Star Fox Zero, or Mario Maker, though), but not enough for me to want one of its characters in Smash. Maybe after I actually played the game for myself.

Predictions:

Rundas - 2.3%

Baby Mario - 1%

Nominations: K. Rool x5

 

[Double0Groove]

Ken alt for Ryu

Chance 50%

Who knows, it could really go either way. We've already seen Ryu enter when we thought that there was no way for him to pull it off, and now here he is. Maybe Ken will even be his own character. Who knows.

Want: 0%

Would I want to buy it? Pffft, No!


Fire Emblem x Shin Megami Tensei character

Chance: 3%

Thanks to splatoon, we know that games that haven't been released yet won't get any extra favors when it comes to an inclusion. The ballot support for any of the characters in that game would need to be noticeably big, which it isn't. Even with Sakurai's love for the series, the chances for any form of representation is extremely slim at best.

Want: 80%

The closest thing to both Chrom's inclusion AND a Persona(-like) character? Be still my beating erection...!

Nomination:

New Mii fighter class DLC x5

 

[NintenZ]

Balloon Fighter:
Chances: Almost nonexistent
Reasons: Villager has his most defining characteristic and the removal of the flipper item.

Waddle Dee (Aka: Bandana Dee):
Chances: Relatively high
Reasons: International popularity, moveset potential, and lack of fourth Kirby rep.

These are my opinions though, let me think what you all think.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Ken

Chance: 0%
Want: abstain

Normally don't like giving chance zeroes, but this I don't see. We have no evidence yet that vanilla characters will get new recolors, much less full alternates. Ryu was just released, and didn't get Ken as an alt or even a blond/red gi recolor - leaves it open, but I doubt we'll get more costumes. If we eventually get a pack, then maybe I'll rerate higher, but I can't see them playing with DLC characters when they haven't even done the vanilla first.
​

SMTxFE rep

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Sooo...a game that's a crossover between a second- and a third-party. A crossover from an oversaturated series. Which won't even be released in Japan until the end of the year. Which has nothing for other regions beyond a release year, not even a translated title. Which we're not even offering a specific character from, probably since we have no information about it...does this even have any ballot support?
...Lana seems more likely than this...​

Rundas prediction: 4.9%
Baby Mario prediction: 1.9%

Nom: King K. Rerate x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Ken Alt

Chance - 0% - Like all Street Fighter things, if it wasn't included already, I don't think it's gonna happen. That and I also don't think alts are going to happen either.

Want - 30% - Don't care for Street Fighter.


SMTxFE thing

Chance - 0% - Honestly, I don't think the game is going to be complete in time for ballots to close. We don't have any idea on who many of the characters are, and the ballot's closing soon. Add third party complications on top of this... yeah, no chance.

Want - 0% - Honestly, this feels the most like bland advertisement of a game to me.


Predictions

Rundas - 3.15% - Okay, but Sylux has a confirmed future while he does not.

Baby Mario - 1.35% - Please tell me this is a joke...


Nominations

Non-playable representation for Ballot Runners-up X5

 

[NintenRob]

Ken alt
Chance 2%
Ryu didn't get one with his release and doubt they'll release add on content for add on content
Want 7%
meh

smtxfe rep
Double 0

Rundas: 1.4%
Baby Mario 0.8%

Nominate offline tourney x5

 

[Zerp]

Fire Emblem X Shin Megami Tensei / Genei Ibun Roku #FE Rep:

Chances: 10% I don't think the game will garner itself a rep, but there exists a case in which it can happen, if enough of the Fire Emblem fanbase commits voter fraud via proxies (Yes, this is actually happening, sad as that is.) then there might be enough "demand", even if it's false demand for it to be considered, and Mr. Sakurai has quite a love for Fire Emblem so I can see it happening if the ballot is skewed enough. Thankfully, that's unlikely as most fans of the franchise condemn that action, so I don't see it gaining enough steam to really affect the ballot.

Want: 0% I really dislike the concept of another Fire Emblem fighter joining Smash anytime soon, even if it's one with a "looser" connection to the series. It just feels wrong, having a small franchise that three characters and two clones, which is really 5 characters but even if we count it this way it's equal to Zelda. And since nobody has countered my counterpoints yet, I'll post them here again, as I think they point out key flaws with most Pro-FE arguments I hear.

"To Fire Emblem needs more fame: I'd like to point out, that you can say this about literally any other franchise, but for some reason it's only this one franchise that this seems to be applied to. If this is to be considered a legitimate argument then what stops me from saying "Kirby should be more famous, it's quality is superior to the others, it deserves seven reps!"? That's right, absolutely nothingdoes, which is why this shouldn't be used as a legitimate argument, because it's basically a free pass card that applies to everyone, it doesn't make any one franchise more special than any other one.

To Fire Emblem having more unique characters: This is a often told justification as to why Fire Emblem has so many reps, but when you stand back for a bit, it stops making sense. Sure, it has more unique characters, but why should these ones get in before all the others? What makes it so that getting another FE character in is so much more important than getting say, a unique Metroid character instead? It's not like we're out of unique characters to get in smash, heck even in Kirby alone, I can name 3 potential candidates, while series like Mario and Pokemon have utter boatloads of unique characters in them."

Not to mention if someone got in mainly due to voter fraud I'd be beyond enraged, voter fraud is one of those few things I truly hate. Is it really worth winning, if you cheated to get there?

Ken alt:
Chances: 10% I feel that if we were going to get alts for non-miis we would have already got them, but if we still do this is practically guaranteed.

Want: 90% Sure, I don't see why not.

Predictions: Baby Mario 4%

Rundas 7%

Nominations: K. Rool x 5

 

[Tikivoy]

Genei Ibunroku #FE rep:
If this was just content, I’d double my planned rating since the likes of Splatoon have this. However, an actual character has two huge things against his/her chances.

Popularity: Unfortunately…being a top ballot choice is out of the question.

Time: I’m expecting SSB4 dlc to finally end either late 2015 or early 2016. #FE comes out late 2015 in Japan. There’s pretty much no time unless a developer plays the game ahead of release or makes a last minute decision to add a #FE character…which I’ll get into later.


Still, there are some things this possibility has for it as well.


1) Upcoming game promotion.
It happened with Fire Emblem once after all. I think it goes without saying a ton of more people would be interested in the game if one of its characters was included in Smash Bros.

2) It's a semi-new series.

Spoiler

Not exactly a reason to get a character in, but I feel this needs to be addressed because of the "6 Fire Emblem characters" thing.
If the development team/Sakurai actually believe in "overrepesentation", #FE can at least get by as a different series. In fact, with "Ibunroku...", the title used for SMT sub-series, you could basically call it a Shin Megami Tensei Fire Emblem game. As in, SMT first. If this were to happen, I guarantee the logo and victory music would be different from the other Fire Emblem characters, showing how different of a game it is.

Adding such a newcomer would, again, not just be promotion for the game, but appeal to those interested in Fire Emblem, SMT and the crossover.

Regardless, the real reason this has a better chance than most --->

3)Sakurai bias.

Because some people think it only applies to Sakurai’s own games. Well…it doesn’t. If he didn’t play nor care for FE we’d probably have Chrom instead of Robin and Lucina because he wouldn’t know who they are. Or at most only one of the mentioned.
If he really likes both series and enjoys the game, then there's at least a chance, even if its minor, that he'd want to include a character from the crossover.

3.1) Sakurai really likes Fire Emblem.

“I played all the way through FE:A and really wanted to include a character from that rich cast in Smash Bros.”

I don’t think I have to go into detail on this. Between 5 characters, 3 stages, a Black Knight costume, defending the pet face mode in FE if, and speaking at a Fire Emblem concert, he’s clearly a fan.

We have no clue if Sakurai is a fan of SMT. However…

3.2) Sakurai was in a Shin Megami Tensei game (),

Did Sakurai approve of this character’s name himself? We have no clue. However, it is clear some people in Atlus must be fans of his works, most likely Smash Bros. I have doubts Sakurai hasn’t played anything SMT given its popularity in Japan. There’s a decent chance that if he didn’t already, he’d have played an SMT after hearing about this character probably named after him. And he’d have probably become a fan because SMT is a pretty amazing series.

(NB4DifferentKanjiblahblah.)

3.3) Sakurai is relatable to the main protagonist.

From a translated Source Gaming interview…

“Based on your age, you are from the Onyako Club* generation, right? Can you tell us what idol groups you liked?”

*=Popular 80’s j-pop group.

Sakurai: “I liked Onyanko Club, but I’m not really interested in the entertainment world.”

Oh. He’s likes jpop, but isn’t interested in the entertainment industry. And this is a jrpg about the entertainment industry. Any hope would be lost at this point...if it weren’t for our protagonist Itsuki.

Itsuki has no interest in the entertainment industry despite working for it himself, but (judging from a choice made in the game) he develops overtime and inspires his friend to pursue their pop idol dreams, first shown when he encourages Tsubasa. Perhaps after playing this game with a relatable protagonist, Sakurai will be inspired; and then include a #FE character so more people can see how gorgeous the Jpop world really is.


As for whose likely, of course there’s Itsuki, a sword wielder who can also use thunder magic, and potentially summon mirage Chrom as a final smash assist. However, if he doesn’t want to add another Blue haired swordsman (), there’s also Tsubasa, who’s a Pegasus Knight (the first playable one in SSB if included). In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s inspired by her throughout the game. She arguably represents the game better as well, and I’d imagine her performing the Squid Sister inspired pair up song for her Final Smash.

So…this can clearly happen out of Sakurai bias. If Sakurai gets an early copy of the game in time/or SSB4 dlc goes on for that long.


and so, I feel that's enough to properly warrant the rating of…

Chance: 20%.

Want: 100%

For the most underappreciated collaboration ever?

100% yes. As a fan of SMT and FE, I’d take this over a new character from FE14 due to #FE being more of a sub-series, and it would be a miracle push toward giving the game the attention it deserves. Not to mention potentially give some jpop music after iDOLM@STER was unforgivingly ignored (we had 7 producers from that game and we couldn’t even get a song on Pac-Land?). Complete a #FE character inclusion with a jpop themed costume pack of iDOLM@STER, Miku and Squid Sisters and I'm happy.


Ken costume:

Chance: 22%. We still don't have costume dlc outside of Mii fighters. This would be one of the obvious choices if it were to happen, but its not looking likely at this point.

Want: 80%. Costume or clone newcomer, eitherway he’d be a great addition. Ryu's already one of my favorites to play as, but you can't have your Ryu, without your Ken!

Nomination: iDOLM@STER mii costumes x5.