Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Day 194: Pre-Direct Special--Predicting the Direct
Please use the following format for today. Make sure you take a guess at everything to win the extra nominations!

Release Window: X%
Multiple Newcomers: X%
Multiple Veterans: X%
New Stage: X%
Character Deconfirmation: X%

Previous Day: Tiki (Fire Emblem) and Zoroark
Up for Rating: Most Overrated and Most Underrated
Up for Prediction: DAY ON HOLD: N and All Popular Newcomers
​

[collapse=How to Play]
Every day we discuss two things: 1) a newcomer we haven't talked about, and 2) a concept, a potential stage, or a character we've talked about before. We rate both how likely they are and how much we want them on a scale of 0% to 100%. In addition, it's always a good idea to write an explanation, the length of which is up to you. For a visual example, let's say we're rating Groose for the first time and a Bowser's Castle stage. Your post should resemble the following:

[collapse=Brief Example Post]
Groose Chance: 1%
He just isn't important enough to make the cut. I'll give him greater than a zero, though, as his is possible.

Groose Want: 100%
DAT POMPADOUR! How could you not want this guy in?

Bowser's Castle Stage Chance: 45%
Well, it looks like it's the most likely Mario stage. I think it has a great chance of happening, but I'm not expecting it.
Bowser Castle Stage Want: 20%
It wouldn't be too awful, but I would really prefer seeing other Mario stages.
[/collapse]

[collapse=Suggested Benchmarks]
It's not necessary that you use these, but they are a good place to start.
100% chance--confirmed or an absolute certainty
75% chance---very likely, but a solid chance of it not happening
50% chance--it has a great shot and it could go either way.
25% chance--a very solid shot, but probably not happening.
0% chance---deconfirmed or not a chance.

100% want--you'd absolutely love for this to happen and have no objections
75% want--you'd really like this, but you do have some minor misgivings
50% want--part of you would like this, but part of you wouldn't like this
25% want-- you'd prefer this not happen, but you think there could be merits
0% want---you don't care for this idea at all
[/collapse]

You may be wondering--how does what we're rating get decided? Well, you also have the chance to nominate characters to rate. You get five nominations per day; use them to nominate characters as you see fit. We rate whatever has the most nominations in each category at the end of the day the following day. The nominations count can be found in the second post of this thread.

Finally, at the beginning of every day I announce what characters we will rate the following day. You have the option to predict what the average chance score will be for these characters. After we rate these characters the following day, @Smasher 101 will announce what people guessed the closest to the actual score. These people will win five extra nominations.

So, your post may end up looking something like the following. Please not: you don't have to do everything in the following example; you could just as easily give one score and leave.

[collapse=Expanded Sample Post]
Groose Chance: 1%
He just isn't important enough to make the cut. I'll give him greater than a zero, though, as his is possible.

Groose Want: 100%
DAT POMPADOUR! How could you not want this guy in?

Bowser's Castle Stage Chance: 45%
Well, it looks like it's the most likely Mario stage. I think it has a great chane of happening, but I'm not expecting it.
Bowser Castle Stage Want: 20%
It wouldn't be too awful, but I would really prefer seeing other Mario stages.

Nominate Waluigi x5
I think we need some Waluigi time!

Godot Prediction: .05%
He's not the main character in his series, so I don't think people will take him seriously
.
Tingle Prediction: 14.76%
One one hand, people will say hatebase. On the other, they'll mention his own series.
[/collapse]

Got it? Good! If not, ask someone for an explanation; we'll be glad to welcome you to the game! Also, feel free to check out our Music Section; it's quite comprehensive and may have you addicted for hours. Finally, you coan use our Directroy to search for specific days in that we've already covered. Links to both our Music Section and Directory can be found later in this post.
[/collapse]

[collapse=Rules] There are some rules though.

First off, all rules on this site must be respected and exceptions are not made just because this is a forum game. Should be obvious, but worth repeating just in case. Here are some additions rules for this game:

1. Characters must originate from a video game OR be closely tied to video games. Also, they must have appeared on a Nintendo console. Please: no Batman, Goku, Master Chief, etc. Maybe closer to realease we'll lift this and have some fun, but we still have some good characters to rate first.

2. Counter votes are absolutely prohibited. It's okay to be influenced by the other's ratings. Just don't try to spite them, okay? There are thirty plus votes a day and it balances out.

3. Flame wars are not allowed. Please feel free to debate. Debate is great! But keep it civil and don't let an argument go far beyond its given day.

4. Never use this thread as an attempt to argue that a character is more likely/less likely because of this game. This is, in the end, a forum game and should be treated as such. It should not be taken into account when discussing character's odds. Again, winning arguments on the Internet doesn't magically make a character more likely.

5. If a character gets deconfirmed, they won't get rated again, no exception. Note that a character must be outright deconfirmed in order for this to happen; if there is still a measure of debate, the character is not banned.

6. The following characters will not be voted on: They'd only be a waste of a day; we determined on day one that they're basically confirmed. If one of these characters is deconfirmed... well, we're really dumb!

Mario (Mario Bros.)
Bowser (Mario Bros.)
Donkey Kong (Donkey Kong)
Link (The Legend of Zelda)
Samus (Metroid)
Kirby (Kirby)
Fox (Star Fox)
Pikachu (Pokemon)
Pit (Kid Icarus)
*Villager (Animal Crossing)
*Wii Fit Trainer (Wii Fit)
*Mega Man (Mega Man)
Yoshi (Yoshi)
Captain Falcon (F-Zero)
Ness (Mother)
Peach (Mario Bros.)
Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)
Diddy Kong (Donkey Kong)
Wario (Wario)
Meta-Knight (Kirby)
King Dedede (Kirby)
Marth (Fire Emblem)
Zero Suit Samus (Metroid)
​

Failure to adhere to these rules will result in your ability to participate in this thread being removed. Maybe. We're flexible here. [/collapse]

[collapse=FAQ] I don't know anything in regards to Sakurai's process to characters? Can I still participate?
Sure, but just make sure you know what you're talking about and get informed. If you've never heard of a character we're rating, see what others say about him and do some research.

Once we put in our vote/prediction for a character, can we change them?
Of course, but only until that day ends. When the deadline has been met, all votes are permanent. However, it would much appreciated if you are going to edit that you make me aware of it so I don't miss it.

Can I nominate both a concept and a character?
You get five nominations per day. They can be divided however you see fit. If you want to use three on a concept and two on a character, go for it.

Are concepts and characters voted at the same time?
Every day, we rate one character we haven't previously rated and score either a rerate, concept, or stage

Is there a limit to how many time a characters is re-voted?
A character can be re-voted at any time for as many times are necessary. Please use your brain, though--there's no sense re-rating a character assuming nothing has changed.

How long does this game last?
Until release of Super Smash Bros. Wii-U and 3DS. The game ends there. But... I'm sure that we'll get the bandwagon going again for SSB5.

What if DLC characters happen? Does the game continue?
Erm... maybe? It'll probably end, but we'll see when we get there.

Are we just rating characters? How about other things like stages, items, etc.?
We have a thing called "concepts." Concepts can range from anything like having a certain character get decloned to getting a newcomer in a certain franchise... to having a certain stage to having a certain item.

Anything I can do to help?
Be familiar with the rules. Also, Ii you have music for a character that's up for rating, feel free to post it in the thread for Toxicroaker.

Look this character did great in Rate Their Chances! It's totally getting in!
Hahaha, no. The point of this game is to laugh about how miserably wrong we were... for example, we gave Rosalina a 15% chance, and she made it. In a Rate Their Chances game for Brawl, GameFAQs gave Ridley and Krystal scores in the 80% range... and they didn't get in.

How do you count up votes?
Graphing calculator, ladies and gentlemen. I just plug in your numbers and hit frappe. Before I did things by hand, but the calculator makes things more manageable. Also, I tally nominations on a Word program, then paste them into the OP, but I am looking for a more efficient method.

I need help with what to do? Can you give me a format that I could use?
See the"brief sample post" or the "expanded sample post" in the How to Play section two spoiler tags up.
[/collapse]

[collapse= Results]
Post Reveal Satisfaction:
February 15 Satisfaction
Little Mac: 92.93%
Mega Man: 89.91%
Villager: 86.50%
Wii Fit Trainer: 77.56%
Rosalina: 72.08%

December 20 Satisfaction:Villager: 86.16%
Mega Man: 83.68%
Rosalina: 80.74%
Wii Fit Trainer: 74.74%

Concepts​

Unlockable Newcomers: 97.84% chance, 80.77% want
1. Confirmed! Promoted Assist Trophy: 87.49% chance, 90.47% want
RTC Top Ten as an AT: 74.26% chance, 41.62% want
Improved Stage Builder: 70.17% chance, 85.15% want
2. Brawl Pokemon and Mewtwo: 67.66% chance, 74.11% want
Other M Ridley: 61.12% chance, 46.37% want
3. Zelda Newcomer: 53.44% chance, 64.67% want
4. Decloned Ganondorf: 48.87% chance, 82.24% want
5. No Namco Character: 46.10% chance, 53.92% want
7. Extensive Alternate Costumes: 38.11% chance, 73.51% want
8. No Cuts: 32.80% chance, 57.91% want
9. Spear User: 35.61% chance, 66.36% want
10. DLC Characters: 31.14% chance, 71.84% want
Non-Character Hanafuda Representation: 27.84% chance, 62.17% want
____________

Four DK Characters: Day 175: (24.60% chance, 71.48% want); Old: (42.03% chance, 75.60% want)
11. Six Mario Characters: 22.70% chance, 40.78% want
12. Yoshi Overhaul: 20.82% chance, 50.87% want
13. Rhythm Heaven Character: 14.29% chance, 37.98% want
14. Playable Boss Mode: 8.66% chance, 43.04% want
15. Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon Separated: 6.11% chance, 26.48% want
Fatal Frame Representation: 4.46% chance, 35.77% want
16. Bowser Jr. with Shadow Mario: 3.93% chance, 17.89% want
17. Pokemon Assist Trophy: 3.80% chance, 34.48% want

Stages
1. Rhythm Heaven: 47.10% chance, 68.31% want
Bowser's Castle: 42.58% chance, 83.33% want
Cookie Country: 40.47% chance, 48.96% want
2. Kirby's Epic Yarn: 37.29% chance, 68.48% want
3. Mario 3D World: 36.57% chance, 64.77% want
4. Gyromite: 33.01% chance, 46.48% want
Gangplank Galleon: 32.27% chance,65.30% want
Paper Mario: 25.90% chance, 87.77% want
5. Dr. Mario: 19.73% chance, 57.13% want
Nutty Noon: 14.32% chance, 48.59% want
6. Tetris: 13.32% chance, 62.89% want

Veterans
1. Mr. Game and Watch (Game and Watch): 99.50% chance, 90.51% want
2. Ganondorf (The Legend of Zelda): 98.90% chance, 90.62% want
3. Ice Climbers (Ice Climber): 98.14% chance, 88.28% want
4. Jigglypuff (Pokemon): 96.15% chance, 79.06% want
5. R.O.B. (Robot): 95.44% chance, 80.06% want
____________

6. Falco Lombardi (Star Fox): 94.69% chance, 74.74% want
7. Sheik (Legend of Zelda): Day 141: (92.23% chance, 79.02% want); Day ???: (93.57% chance, 84.53% want)
8. Pokemon Trainer Red (Pokemon): Day 152: (91.55% chance, 77.00% want); Day 33: (81.38% chance, 71.88% want)
9. Mewtwo (Pokémon): Day 143: (89.56% chance, 82.57% want); Day 10: (90.22% chance, 88.34% want)
10. Wolf (Star Fox): Day 162: (88.07% chance, 84.17% want); Day 77: (86.08% chance, 80.36% want)
____________

11. Lucas (Mother): 87.03% chance, 80.04% want
12. CONFIRMED! Sonic (Sonic the Hedgehog):84.56% chance, 80.75% want
13. Ike (Fire Emblem): Day 134: (82.73% chance, 77.59% want); Day : (78.58% chance, 73.48% want)
14. CONFIRMED! Lucario (Pokemon): DAY 77: 81.90% chance, 72.36% want); DAY 20: (65.42% chance, 68.71% want)
15. Solid Snake (Metal Gear): Day 185: (62.66% chance, 63.92% want); Old: (66.12% chance, 69.00% want)
____________

16. CONFIRMED! Toon Link (The Legend of Zelda): 62.3% chance, 64.54% want
17. Roy (Fire Emblem): DAY 118: (38.44% chance, 42.82% want); DAY 53: (40.42% chance,48.87% want); DAY 16: (38.75% chance, 45.37% want)
18. Doctor Mario (Doctor Mario): 7.10% chance, 18.01% want
19. Pichu (Pokemon): 3.30% chance, 25.90% want
20. Young Link (Legend of Zelda): 0.31% chance, 6.52% want


Newcomers
1. CONFIRMED! Little Mac (Punch-Out!!): DAY 81: (88.11% chance, 77.00% want); DAY 12: (83.59% chance, 73.22% want)
2. Palutena (Kid Icarus): DAY 141: (81.66% chance, 75.07% want); DAY 97: (70.69% chance, 74.37% want); DAY 2: (76.35% chance, 77.22% want)
3. Ridley (Metroid): DAY 158: (73.98% chance, 81.21% want); DAY 80: (71.38% chance, 84.80% want); DAY 44: (69.95% chance, 84.13% want); DAY 3: (71.1% chance, 78.73% want)
4. King K. Rool (Donkey Kong): Day 163: (68.28% chance, 85.46% want); DAY 89: (74.36% chance, 84.47% want); DAY 5: (72.48% chance, 78.57% want)
5. Shulk (Xenoblade): Day 174: (64.06% chance, 66.79% want); Day 136: (55.76% chance, 67.20% want); Day 6: (49.58% chance, 61.12% want)
___________

6. Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong): DAY 150: (63.68% chance, 68.25% want); DAY 65: (55.39% chance, 40.60% want); DAY 7: (57.38% chance, 50.17% want)
7. Mii (Wii Series): Day 169: (61.62% chance, 28.26% want); Day 17: (57.08% chance, 27.40% want)
8.Pac-Man (Pac-Man): Day 161: (59.96% chance, 50.21% want); Day 8: (54.99% chance, 34.79% want)
9.Takamaru (Nazu no Murasamejou): Day 164: (49.67% chance, 57.51% want); Day 19: (59.54% chance, 52.82% want)
10. Chrom (Fire Emblem): DAY 125: (44.56% chance, 31.46% want); DAY 25: (69.65% chance, 57.27% want)
___________

Toon Zelda and Tetra (The Legend of Zelda): Day 172: (30.81% chance, 45.28% want); (DAY 90: (38.69% chance, 49.60% want); DAY 30: (23.69% chance, 42.26% want)
12. Waddle Dee (Kirby): DAY 121: (38.06% chance, 64.26% want); DAY 99: (25.21% chance, 55.20% want); DAY 22: (17.70% chance, 38.00% want)
13. Isaac (Golden Sun): DAY 131: (33.87% chance, 68.46% want); DAY 4: (52.48% chance, 71.6% want)
14. Robin (Fire Emblem): DAY 129: (32.61% chance, 56.00% want); DAY XX: (15.10% chance, 38.90% want)
15. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Starfy (The Legendary Starfy): 30.92% chance, 40.03% want
___________

18. Zoroark (Pokemon): 20.23% chance, 39.42% want
19. Chibi Robo (Chibi Robo): 19.71% chance, 44.47% want
20. Impa (Legend of Zelda): 18.81% chance, 28.61% want
____________

21. Saki (Sin and Punishment): Day 142: (18.53% chance, 42.46% want); Day 41: (39.34% chance, 54.15% want)
22. "New" Pokemon Trainer (Pokemon): 18.33% chance, 37.95% want
23. Bowser Jr. (Mario): DAY 132: (17.88% chance, 44.55% want); DAY 61: (56.43% chance, 68.16% want); DAY 13: (43.44% chance, 56.48% want)
Dillon (Rolling Western): Day 184: (17.70% chance, 50.37% want); Old: (30.62% chance, 54.23% want)
24. Mach Rider (Mach Rider): 17.62% chance, 44.75% want
25. Samurai Goroh (F-Zero): 16.92% chance, 38.44% want
____________

26. Krystal (Star Fox): DAY 128 (16.33% chance, 27.05% want); DAY 11: (32.86% chance, 49.54% want)
(t) 26. Tetra [solo] (Legend of Zelda): 16.33% chance, 51.03% want
28. CONFIRMED! Rosalina (Super Mario): 15.77% chance, 42.90% want
29. Lucina (Fire Emblem): DAY 104: (15.39% chance, 45.73% want); DAY 15: (22.56% chance, 43.4% want)
30. Tom Nook (Animal Crossing): 13.73% chance, 38.46% want
____________

31. Lip (Panel de Pon): 13.69% chance, 34.81% want
32. Tingle (Legend of Zelda): DAY 117: (13.31% chance, 23.31% want); DAY 27: (15.59% chance, 25.85% want)
33. Black Shadow (F-Zero): 13.09% chance, 43.00% want
34.Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven): 12.97% chance, 24.71% want
35. Ray (Custom Robo): 12.95% chance, 45.05% want
____________

36. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY! Waluigi (Super Mario) DAY 100: (12.75% chance, 44.13% want); DAY 32: (24.72% chance, 35.02% want)
37. Porky (Mother): 12.71% chance. 48.66% want
38. Cranky Kong (Donkey Kong): 12.31% chance, 37.20% want
39. Professor Layton (Professor Layton): 12.17% chance, 44.89% want
40. Anna (Fire Emblem): 12.07% chance, 44.77% want
____________

41. Daitoryo (Hanafuda): 11.99% chance, 36.80% want
42.Medusa (Kid Icarus): 11.85% chance, 28.26% want
43. Kamek (Yoshi's Island): 11.34% chance, 36.06% want
44. Muddy Mole (Mole Mania): 11.08% chance, 42.54% want
____________

Hades (Kid Icarus): Day 180: (10.30% chance, 54.34% want); Day 114; (9.63% chance, 52.19% want)
46. Duck Hunt Dog (Duck Hunt): 10.34% chance, 35.43% want
47. Ghirahim (Legend of Zelda): 9.86% chance, 33.76% want
Paper Mario (Mario): Day 180: (9.58% chance, 39.02% want); DAY 101: (29.85% chance, 50.97% want); DAY 14: (28.33% chance, 44.25% want).
49. Andy (Wars) 9.60% chance, 37.38% want
50. Masked Man (Mother): 9.43% chance, 42.00% want
(t) 50. Chrom and Lucina Team (Fire Emblem): 9.43% chance, 31.56% want
____________

52. Blaziken (Pokemon): 9.27% chance, 42.93% want
53. Simon Belmont (Castlevania): 9.18% chance, 44.43% want
54. Vaati (Legend of Zelda): 9.15% chance, 34.30% want
55. Genesect (Pokemon): 8.56% chance, 27.75% want
56. Mona (WarioWare): 8.50% chance, 46.86% want
57. Lyn (Fire Emblem): Day 151: (8.28% chance, 37.86% want); Day 12.74% chance, 36.26% want
58. Wonder Red (Wonderful 101): 8.05% chance, 37.10% want
59. Dark Samus (Metroid): 7.94% chance, 26.32% want
60. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY!Skull Kid (Legend of Zelda): 7.52% chance, 41.47% want
____________

61. Matthew (Golden Sun): 7.50% chance, 33.36% want
Sheriff (Retro): 7.50% chance, 16.82% want
Meowth (Pokemon): Day 168: (7.33% chance, 43.81% want); Day 62: (11.02% chance, 43.38% want)
62. Excitebiker (Excitebike): 7.15% chance, 33.96% want
63. Slippy Toad (Star Fox): 6.75% chance, 25.35% want
Midna (Legend of Zelda) 6.32% chance, 41.95% want
64. DECONFIRMED! ASSIST TROPHY!Ashley (WarioWare): 5.85% chance, 27.43% want
65. Ganon (Legend of Zelda): 5.76% chance, 38.29% want
66. Prince Sable (For the Frog the Bell Tolls): 5.74% chance, 30.57% want
(t) 66. Louie (Pikmin): 5.74% chance, 23.55% want
68. Sukapon (Joy Mech Fight): 5.44% chance, 37.89% want
69. Jimmy T. (WarioWare): 5.34% chance, 38.31% want
70. Doctor Kawashima (Brain Age): 5.15% chance, 22.12% want
____________

71. Rayman (Rayman): 5.13 % chance, 42.31% want
72. Bomberman (Bomberman): DAY 133: (4.94% chance, 59.83% want); DAY 56: (7.70% chance, 53.95% want)
73. Rhythm Wrestler (Rhythm Heaven): 4.82% chance, 48.50% want
74. Slime (Dragon Quest): DAY 124: (4.80% chance, 32.65% want); DAY 58: (6.06% chance, 24.43% want)
Alph (Pikmin): 4.76% chance, 21.36% want
75. Diskun (Famicom Disk Drive): 4.72% chance, 20.12% want
Isa (Sin and Punishment): 4.68% chance, 19.79% want
76. Captain Rainbow (Captain Rainbow): 4.45% chance, 40.74% want
77. Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) 4.35% chance, 36.79% want
78. Rhtyhm Monkey (Rhythm Heaven): 4.34% chance, 17.65% want
79. Captain Syrup (Wario Land): 4.18% chance, 27.26% want
80. Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia): 4.00% chance, 28.34% want
____________

Magolor (Kirby): 3.99% chance, 31.16% want
81. Plasm Wraith (Pikmin): 3.80% chance, 13.43% want
82. Dark Pit (Kid Icarus): 3.66% chance, 24.55% want
83. Micaiah (Fire Emblem): 3.62% chance, 18.98% want
84 Sylveon (Pokemon) 3.61% chance, 16.20% want
85. Victini (Pokemon): 3.46% chance, 24.39% want
86. Aeron (Pandora's Tower): 3.44% chance, 23.90% want
87. Anthony Higgs (Metroid): 3.43% chance, 13.64% want
88. Grovyle (Pokemon): 3.41% chance, 33.91% want
89. Fawful (Mario and Luigi): 3.06% chance, 34.52% want
90. Toad (Super Mario): Day 140: (3.05% chance, 50.29% want); DAY 78: (17.90% chance, 45.08% want); DAY 26: (30.16% chance, 36.28% want)
____________

91. Bayonetta (Bayonetta): 3.03% chance, 20.70% want
92. Geno (Super Mario): 2.93% chance, 31.65% want
Wild Gunman (Retro): 2.93% chance, 13.40% want
Sandbag (Super Smash Bros.): Day 178: (2.85% chance, 18.72% want); Old: (0.63% chance, 20.41% want)
93. King Boo (Luigi's Mansion): 2.71% chance, 26.42% want
Zael (The Last Story): 2.68% chance, 21.18% want
94. Mike Jones (StarTropics): 2.64% chance, 14.18% want
95. Black Mage (Final Fantasy): 2.61% chance, 37.78% want
Alph, Brittany, Charlie Trio (Pikmin): 2.58% chance, 15.64% want
96. Tails (Sonic the Hedgehog): 2.54% chance, 31.67% want
Professor E. Gadd (Luigi's Mansion): 2.46% chance, 31.63% want
97. Princess Daisy (Super Mario): 2.41% chance. 13.14% want
98. Ninten (Mother): 2.31% chance, 7.61% want
99. Magnus (Kid Icarus): 2.23% chance, 15.79% want
100. Dark Matter (Kirby): 1.86% chance 17.67% want
___________

Shadow the Hedgehog (Sonic): 1.77% chance, 5.48% want
101. Ephraim (Fire Emblem): 1.73% chance, 24.05% want
102.Pauline (Donkey Kong): 1.72% chance, 11.43% want
103. Klonoa (Klonoa): 1.66% chance, 29.66% want
104. Harry (Teleroboxer): 1.65% chance, 22.52% want
105. Leon Powalski (Star Fox): 1.51% chance, 21.79% want
106. Reggie (Nintendo of America): 1.44% chance, 17.44% want
Alexandra Roivas (Eternal Darkness): 1.32% chance, 26.29% want
107. Zero (Mega Man): 1.29% chance, 26.33% want
108. Tharja (Fire Emblem): 1.26% chance, 16.17% want
109. Eevee (Pokemon): 1.23% chance, 18.25% want
110. Groose (Legend of Zelda): 1.16% chance, 43.58% want
____________

111. Master Hand (Super Smash Bros.): 1.15% chance, 28.59% want
Shantae (Shantae): 1.01% chance, 33.92% want
112. Stork (Yoshi's Island): 0.97% chance, 9.75% want
113. Quote (Cave Story): 0.96% chance, 22.17% want
(t) 114.Goku (YuYuKi): 0.96% chance, 31.82% want
114. Goemon (Ganbare Goemon): 0.93% chance, 11.80% want
115. Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes): 0.92% chance, 24.72% want
116. Knuckles (Sonic the Hedgehog): 0.90% chance, 27.34% want
117. Tiny Kong (Donkey Kong): 0.80% chance, 14.39% want
Balloon Fighter (Balloon Fight): 0.79% chance, 27.88% want
Adam Malkovich (Metroid): 0.79% chance, 0.43% want
118. Owain (Fire Emblem): 0.72% chance, 14.51% want
119. Mask Link (Legend of Zelda): 0.70% chance, 24.91% want
120. Bulborb (Pikmin): 0.68% chance, 7.94% want
Jack Frost (Shin Megami): 0.68% chance, 25.91% want
____________

121. Cloud Strife (Final Fantasy) .67% chance, 7.75% want.
122. Primid (Super Smash Bros.): 0.63% chance, 9.05% want
Happy Mask Salesman (Legend of Zelda): 0.62% chance, 24.63% want
124. Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): 0.58% chance, 41.98% want
Goku (Dragon Ball): 0.46% chance, 12.51% want
125. Reyn (Xenoblade): 0.41% chance, 8.00% want
Sora (Kingdom Hearts): 0.38% chance, 21.49% want
126.Chef Kawasaki (Kirby): 0.36% chance, 9.03% want
Omastar (Pokemon): Day 185: (0.35% chance, 25.85% want); Old: (0.19% chance, 11.63% want)
127. Neku and Shiki (The World Ends With You): 0.34% chance, 21.84% want
Panther Caruso (Star Fox): 0.33% chance, 2.52% want
128. Nintendog (Nintendogs): 0.30% chance, 11.13% want
129. Ryu (Street Fighter): 0.29% chance, 10.00% want
(t) 129. Nightmare (Soulcalibur): 0.29% chance, 8.58% want
______________

131. Count Bleck (Paper Mario): 0.26% chance, 11.90% want
132 Yarne (Fire Emblem): 0.25% chance,24.52% want
133. Amaterasu (Okami): 0.21% chance, 46.53% want
Arino (Retro Game Challenge): 0.20% chance, 24.14% want
135. Chancellor Cole (Legend of Zelda): 0.12% chance, 7.59% want
(t) 135. Banjo (Banjo-Kazooie): 0.12% chance, 72.57% want
137. Scrooge McDuck (Duck Tales): 0.03% chance, 12.96% want
Athena Cykes (Ace Attorney): 0.03% chance, 6.08% want
(t) 137. Yarne and Owain Team (Fire Emblem): 0.03% chance, 16.38% want
[/collapse]

Directory

Music Section (Part Two)

Projected Update Schedule
Monday-Saturday: 7~11 PM EST
Sunday: Update Doubtful

THE TOP 10 OF CHANCE

THE TOP 10 OF WANT

​

[collapse=Statistical Analysis]

Rate their chances statistics:
Oh yeah, and I did do some statistics, although I'm still working on coming up with a simple predictive model.

If you saw my post in the Franchise sales/representation thread, you saw that the number of representatives that a series gets in a Smash game can be modeled with a linear regression using Franchise Sales and Previous # Slots (how many reps they had in the previous game) with an R^2 value of a little over .75.

Previous number of slots accounts for a large amount of the variation on its own (although so does sales, to a lesser degree).

At any rate, I figure you take the number of slots that predicts for the game and combine that with the predictions people made by series might get a reasonable performance. I want something I can apply to our current predictions to make some for Smash 4. But I've been busy playing Wind Waker instead, so yeah.

Anyway, here's how the previous iterations of the game did compared to some very simple and obviously wrong baselines:

Actual Brawl: 35/39 slots/movesets, 4 Mario characters, 4/6 Pokemon, 4/5 Zelda, 2 Donkey Kong, 2 Fire Emblem, 4 Retro, and 2 third-party characters.

GameFAQs: predicted a roster with 85.8 characters, including 11 Mario characters, 7.6 Pokemon, 8.6 Zelda, 3 Donkey Kong, 6 Fire Emblem, 7 retros and 13 third-party characters.

SmashBoards: predicted a roster with 52.7 characters, including 7.3 Mario, 5.9 Pokemon (not bad there), 6.9 Zelda, 2.6 Donkey Kong, 2.6 Fire Emblem, 5.1 Retro, and 5.2 third-parties.

My sales-based model predicts a roster with 34.8 first-party characters (I did not include 3rd-parties in the model), and 38.4 movesets. It is interesting that it overestimates almost exactly 2 slots/movesets more than it really was (the model does not know how many slots Brawl had overall), since that implies that Sonic and Snake took slots that would've gone to first-party characters. It predicts 5.2/5.9 Mario, 4.3/4.9 Pokemon, 4/5 Zelda, 1.9/2.1 Donkey Kong, 2.1/2.3 Fire Emblem and 4.4/4.6 retro characters.

Brier score (lower is better, 1 is the worst possible, 0 is perfect accuracy):
GameFAQs top 10 newcomers: 0.222
SmashBoards top 10 newcomers: 0.233

As I said, I'm still working on a model for comparing on newcomers, but yeah. It will have to exclude third-parties.

GameFAQs top 100: 0.143
SmashBoards (all predictions since there were less than 100): 0.185

Notice that you can improve your Brier score by making a larger number of obvious predictions. Predicting low numbers for obscure characters increases the score but doesn't really mean you were a prescient predictor just because you gave low likelihood to things that most people would give low likelihood to.

On the same characters as GameFAQs Top 100, simply predicting 100% likelihood for every Melee veteran and 0% for any newcomer (E3 newcomers not included since as they were revealed before the game started, they cannot be part of any predictions) would get you a Brier score of 0.14.

The same thing on the SmashBoards gets a Brier score of 0.182, about the same.

So, they'd have been just as, if not more accurate, simply by predicting no more newcomers and that every Melee veteran would return.

Later I'll do some similar statistics on the current iteration of Rate Their Chances to provide a summary of what kind of roster size and series distribution people seem to be expecting. I intend to re-calibrate my ratings based on a sensible roster size.

Based on Fire Emblem, we're probably being a bit more sensible than last time. Our combined prediction seems to be about 3.1 Fire Emblem characters, which is not ridiculous like the 6 GameFAQs predicted for Brawl.​

[/collapse]

[collapse=Veterans/Newcomers OLD ft. GameFAQs] Veteran:

1. Ice Climbers (Ice Climber): 97.79% overall chance (98.14% Smashboards, 93.45% GameFAQs),86.47% overall want (88.28% Smashboards, 56.67% GameFAQs)

2. Jigglypuff (Pokemon): 95.93% overall chance (96.15% Smashboards, 95.37% GameFAQs), 76.82% overall want (79.06% Smashboards, 69.07% GameFAQs)

3. Mewtwo (Pokémon) 88.58% overall chance (90.22% Smashboards, 82.44% GameFAQs), 83.96% overall want (88.34% Smashboards, 67.81% GameFAQs)

4. Lucario (Pokemon): 63.75% overall chance (65.42% Smashboards , 58.53% GameFAQs), 66.82% overall want (68.71% Smashboards, 59.69% GameFAQs).

5. Toon Link (The Legend of Zelda) 50.39% overall chance (62.3% Smashboards, 35.24% GameFAQs);50.74% overall want (64.54% Smashboards, 31.24% GameFAQs)
__________

6. Roy (Fire Emblem) 29.79% overall chance (38.75% Smashboards, 14.85% GameFAQs); 40.59% overall want (45.37% Smashboards, 29.95% GameFAQs)


NEWCOMERS:
1. Little Mac (Punch-Out!!): 82.48% overall chance (83.59% on Smashboards, 80.02% GameFAQs);72.08% overall want (73.22% on Smashboards, 69.33% GameFAQs)

2. Palutena (Kid Icarus): 74.34% overall chance (76.35% Smashboards, 70.31% GameFAQs), 76.31% overall want (77.22% Smashboards, 70.83% GameFAQs)

3. Ridley (Metroid): 70.51% overall chance (71.1% Smashboards, 68.93% GameFAQs); 79.22% overall want (78.73% Smashboards, 80.81% GameFAQs)

4. Chrom (Fire Emblem): 70.49% overall chance (69.65% Smashboards, 74.45% GameFAQs), 54.42% overall want (57.27% Smashboards, 41.72% GameFAQS)

5. King K. Rool (Donkey Kong) 66.33% overall want (72.48% Smashboards, 52.21% GameFAQs);72.87% overall want (78.57% Smashboards, 58.9% on GameFAQs)
________

6. Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong): 58.04% overall chance (57.38% Smashboards, 59.25% GameFAQs);49.26% overall want (50.17% Smashboards, 47.5% on GameFAQs)

7. Pac-Man (Pac-Man) 57.62% overall chance (54.99% Smashboards, 64.29% GameFAQs); 39.71% overall want (34.79% Smashboards, 53.94% GameFAQs)

8.. Takamaru (I Forget) 56.68% overall chance (59.54% Smashboards, 49.12% GameFAQs); 48.39% overall want (52.82%Smashboards, 34.14% Gamefaqs)

9. Mii (Wii Series): 54.68% overall chance (57.08% Smashboards, 48.55% GameFAQs), 23.26% overall want(27.40% Smashboards, 12.37% GameFAQs)

10. Isaac (Golden Sun) 50.24% overall chance (52.48% Smashboards, 42.97% GameFAQs); 67% overall want (71.6% Smashboards, 59.07% GameFAQs)
_________

11. Shulk (Xenoblade): 47.57% overall chance (49.58% Smashboards, 44.92% GameFAQs); 64.15% overall want; (61.12% Smashboards, 68.48% GameFAQs)

12. Bowser Jr. (Mario) 42.89% overall chance (43.44% Smashboards,41.50% GameFAQs); 50.09% overall want (56.48% Smashboards, 32.86% GameFAQs)

13. Paper Mario (Mario) 33.25% overall chance (28.33%Smashboards, 43.8% GameFAQs) ,45.95% overall want (44.25% Smashboards, 49.6% GameFAQs)

14. Krystal (Star Fox) 27.41% overall chance (32.86% Smashboards, 14.3% GameFAQs); 47.99% overall want (49.54% Smashboards, 40.45% GameFAQs)

15. Lucina(Fire Emblem) 22.27% overall chance (22.56% Smashboards, 21.8% GameFAQs); 42.6% overall want (43.4% Smashboards, 41.1% GameFAQs)
___________

16. Waddle Dee (Kirby): 15.09% overall chance (17.70% Smashboards, 7.64% Gamefaqs); 31.29% overall want (38.00% Smashboards, 9.50% GameFAQs)

17. Lyn (Fire Emblem): 10.38% overall chance (12.74% Smashboards, 5.34% GameFAQS), 30.58% overall want (36.26% Smashboards, 16.84% GameFAQs)

18. Owain (Fire Emblem) 2.18% overall chance (.72% Smashboards, 4.52% Gamefaqs), 27.88% overall want (14.51% Smashboards, 49.27% Gamefaqs)


(not being voted on)
Mario (Super Mario Bros.)
Bowser (Super Mario Bros.)
Donkey Kong (Donkey Kong)
Link (The Legend of Zelda)
Samus (Metroid)
Kirby (Kirby)
Fox (Star Fox)
Pikachu (Pokémon)
Pit (Kid Icarus)
Olimar (Pikmin)
Luigi (Super Mario Bros.)
Peach (Super Mario Bros.)
Diddy Kong (Donkey Kong)
Wario (Wario)
Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)
Meta-Knight (Kirby)
King Dedede (Kirby)
Captain Falcon (F-zero)
Ness (Earthbound)
Yoshi (Yoshi)[/collapse]

[collapse=Special Thanks]
Founder and Former Manager: SSBF
Without you, none of this would have been possible. Thanks for setting up this wonderful game.

Former Manager: Habanero (aka Xenoblaze)
We would have had a big GAME OVER if it weren't for you. He kept this thread going when SSBF retired.

Directory Manager: Brawler610
He runs one of the most crucial sections of the thread--the Directory has changed the way people approach this game. It's certainly helped me run things, that's for sure!

Prediction Manager: Smasher 101
From Day 150 on, he's taken control of the prediction systems and expanded it to be greater than it was before.

Music Section Manager: Toxicroaker
He contributed so much music and helped me keep the section to date so often that I handed over the keys to him. His post holds the record for most links in a single post on Smashboards, and he keeps it growing.

Emergency Manager: Lonekonwolf
Whenever there's something going down and I can't run things, he steps up to count noms and keep things running. Kudos, Wolf!

Flavor Manager: Hades the Magnificent
He runs some of the more... entertaining... days here. The identity of his alt will remain a secret to everybody.

Local Moderator: FalKoopa
'Ol Koopa has edited the OP for me on more occasions than I can count, and helps me out with general maintenance. In addition, he created and edits the Top 10 Pictures.

Local Moderator: Mario and Sonic Guy
Sticky status has really helped this game flourish here. He also handled the manager transitions.

Statistical Analysis: Erimir
That whole statistics section? It's all this guy's doing. This mathematics wizard is actually applying our ratings in a system that makes sense.

"Concept" Creator: Hippopotasauce
He suggested that we rate concepts---a first in RTC history, as far as I know. They've become such an interesting part of the game that I've expanded their role.

SUPER Music Contributors: Erimir, Brawler610, Jaytalks, SchAlternate and Opossum

Music Contributors: Ephecus, XenothiumX, Xenigma, Hippopotasauce, Good Guy Giygas, Yummyorange, FalKoopa, GuyWiththeFace, LegendofRob1, Glaciacott, Swampasaur and Cheezey Bites

Assorted Contributors: Paulkagebein, Cheezey Bites, ColderThanIce and SchAlternate

Everyone else who's contributed in some way that is currently slipping my mind. I'm sorry; PM me and I'll add you to the list!
[/collapse]

​

 

[Groose]

Nominations Count
Unrated Newcomers
x64 N (Pokémon)
x62 Eirkia (Fire Emblem)
X62 Flynn (Shin Megami Tensei)
X61 Doctor Lobe (Big Brain Academy)
x50 Spyro (Spyro)
x49 Mallo (Pushmo)
x45 Marina (Mischief Makers)
x45 Gaius (Fire Emblem)
X45 Protoman (Mega Man)
X45 Lucas (The Wizard)
x40 Daroach (Kirby)
X40 Kiddy Kong (Donkey Kong)
X38 Prince Fluff (Kirby)
X37 Dry Bowser (Super Mario)
x35 Petey Piranha (Super Mario Bros)
x33 Heracross (Pokemon)
X30 Kid Icarus Dog (Kid Icarus)
X28 Leif (Fire Emblem?)
x26 Akari Hayami (Wave Race)
x26 Batallion Wars Rifle Grunts (Batallion Wars)
X26 Gardevoir (Pokemon)
x25 Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik (The Legend of Zelda)
X25 Marshal (Rhythm Heaven)
x25 Commander Shepard (Mass Effect)
x24 Mallow (Super Maro)
x21 Godot (Ace Attorney)
x20 “X” Protagonist (X)
x20 Billy Hatcher (The Giant Egg)
X20 Toadsworth (Super Mario)
x20 Captain Rainbow with Nick (Captain Rainbow)
x18 Jill (Drill Dozer)
x16 Kumatora (Mother/Earthbound)
X15 Tony (Earthbound)
x15 Mr. Resetti (Animal Crossing)
X15 Peppy “Barrel Roll” Hare
x15 Dr. Eggman (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x12 Barbara (Music Game)
x12 Star Man (Pro Wrestling
x12 King Hippo (Punch-Out!!)
X12 Galacta Knight (Kirby)
x11 Wreck-It Ralph! (Wreck-It Ralph!)
X10 Landmaster (Star Fox)
X10 Hawlucha (Pokemon)
x10 Liquid Snake (Metal Gear)
x10 Jack (Harvest Moon)
X10 Midna and Wolf Link (Legend of Zelda)
X10 Crash Bandicoot (Crash)
x10 Toon Ganondorf (Legend of Zelda)
x10 Dunban (Xenoblade)
X10 Medli-Makar Team (Legend of Zelda)
x10 Giovanni (Pokemon)
X10 Neku (The World Ends With You)
x9 The Old Man (Legend of Zelda)
X8 Will (Advance Wars)
x8 Yuga (Legend of Zelda)
x7 Imajin (Yumi Komo: Doki Doki Panic)
x7 Rundas (Metroid)
x6 Lord Dome (Pokemon)
X6 Red Savarin (Solatorobo)
X6 Juno (Jet Force Gemini)
x6 Elite Beat Agents (Elite Beat Agents)
x6 Terra Bradford (Final Fantasy)
X6 Beat (Jet Set Radio)
x5 Leon S. Kennedy (Resident Evil)
X5 Rag Rappy(Phantasy Star)
X5 Detective Gumshoe (Ace Attorney)
X5 Alfonzo (Leave it to Me!)
x5 Sami (Advanced Wars)
X5 Gooey and Rick (Kirby)
x5 Wonder Pink (Wonderful 101)
X5 Junpei (999)
x5 Goomba (Super Mario)
x5 Koopa Troopa (Super Mario)
x5 Grandma (Legend of Zelda)
X5 Pyrrhon (Kid Icarus)
x5 Silver the Hedgehog (Sonic)
x5 Patricia Wagon (Mighty Switch Force)
X5 Lyndis (Fire Emblem)
x5 Big Boss (Metal Gear)
x5 Nowi (Fire Emblem)
x5 Ruka Minazuki (Fatal Frame)
x5 Demon King Demise (Legend of Zelda
X5 Chrono (Chrono Trigger)
x5 Hector (Fire Emblem)
X5 Diancie (Pokemon)
X5 Deku Link (Legend of Zelda)
x5 Cless (Tales of Phantasia)
X5 King Harkinian (Wand of Gamelon)
X5 Frogger (Frogger)
X5 Maya Fey (Ace Attorney)
x5 Zoda (Star Tropics)
x5 NiGHTS (Into Dreams)
x5 Knuckle Joe (Kirby)
x5 Albert Wesker (Resident Evil)
x5 Basilio (Fire Emblem)
x5 Tiz (Bravely Default)
x5 Zant (Legend of Zelda)
x5 Mudkip (Pokemon)
x4 Beedrill (Pokemon)
x4 Dr. Wright (Sim-City)
X4 Fyer and Fabli (Legend of Zelda)
x3 Zip (FlingSmash)
x3 Hammer Bros. (Super Mario)
x3 Hilda (Legend of Hilda)
x2 Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)
x5 Ryu Hayabusa (NinjaGaiden)
x2 Soma Cruz (Some Game)
x2 9-Volt (WarioWare)
x2 Validar (Fire Emblem)
x2 Toon Zelda [no transformations] (The Legend of Zelda)
x1 Tabuu (Super Smash Bros.)
X1 Gundam (Gundam)
x1 Florina (Fire Emblem)
x1 Little Joe (Punch-Out!!)
x1 K. K. Slider (Animal Crossing)
x1 Ilia (Legend of Zelda)
x1 Miku Hinasaki (Fatal Frame/Zero)
x1 Jin Kazame (Tekken)
x1 Hikari (Fairy Tale)
x1 Ultimate Chimera (Mother)
x1 Prince Peasely (Mario and Luigi)
x1 Pandora (Kid Icarus? The Ball of Fire?)
x1 Darkrai (Pokemon)
x1 Gengar (Pokemon)
X1 Monita (Nintendoland)

Concepts, Stages and Rerates
X100 All Popular Newcomer Candidates
X87 Ghirahim (Legend of Zelda)
X86 Chrom Assist Trophy
X86 Fifty or More Characters
X80 Robin (Fire Emblem)
X66 Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong)
X55 Balloon Fight Stage
X45 Slime (Dragon Quest)
x36 F-Zero Newcomer
x35 Pirate Ship
X35 Bowser Jr. (Super Mario)
X35 Halcandra Stage
x35 Chibi Robo (Chibi Robo)
x30 Mega Man Legends 3 Representation
x30 Mach Rider (Mach Rider)
X30 Roy (Fire Emblem)
X28 Dedede Arena
x25 Professor Layton (Professor Layton)
X25 Bowser Land
x25 Sheriff (Retro)
x24 Vaati (Legend of Zelda)
X22 Three Fire Emblem Characters
X21 Impa (Legend of Zelda)
x20 Four or More Third Parties
x20 Sinnoh Pokemon Trainer
X20 Chrom [Stance-Based Moveset]
X20 Porky (Mother)
x20 Two “Retro” Newcomers [Little Mac is not Retro]
X20 Wario Land Wario
X17 Lor Starcutter
x15 Fire Emblem Newcomer (Not Chrom)
X15 Fawful (Super Mario)
X15 Chrom (Fire Emblem)
X15 Medli NPC
x15Tom Nook (Animal Crossing)
X13 Dark Samus (Metroid)
X13 Dark Matter (Kirby)
x12 Captain Syrup (Wario Land)
X11 King Boo (Mario)
x10 SS Zelda
X10 No Cuts
X10 Luigi Series Newcomer
x10 Halberd Stage
X10 Lucina with Mask Transformation
X10 Hanafuda Character
X10 Pichu (Pokemon)
x10 Nikki (Swapnote)
X10 Character Specific Victory Themes
X10 Seven or More Villains
X10 Last Minute Clones
x10 Dragon Roost Island
X10 Starman (Mother)
X10 Takamaru (Ninja Castle)
X9 Bandana Dee (Kirby)
x8 Banjo-Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie)
X7 Indie Newcomer
x7 Masked Marth Costume
X7 Duck Hunt Stage
X7 New Foursome
X6 Glitz Pitz
X6 Wario Series Newcomer
X6 Nintendo Land
x6 Clone Newcomer
X5 Reworked Meta Knight
x5 Kamek (Yoshi’s Island)
x5 Porky Forms Day
x5 Johto Trainer
X5 Same Series Newcomers
X5 Funky Kong (Donkey Kong)
X5 Tropical Freeze Stage
x5 Multiple <10% chance characters
x5 JRPG Newcomer
X5 Fifty or More Stages (per version)
X5 Tails (Sonic)
x5 Samurai Goroh (F-Zero)
x5 Ashley (WarioWare)
x5 Mike Jones (StarTropics)
X5 Standalone Charizard
x5 More Team Colors
x5 Blue Shell Item
X5 Mewtwo (Pokemon)
x5 Six Pokemon Characters
X5 World Bowser Stage
x5 Mario sub-series Character
X5 Medusa (Kid Icarus)
x4 Ten or More Newcomers
x4 Sheik (Legend of Zelda)
x3 Standalone Pokemon Trainer
x2 Adventure Mode
x2 Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven)
X2 Isaac (Golden Sun)
x1 Unique Starfox Final Smashes
X1 Entire Melee Cast
X1 Wii Fit Board (Item)
X1 Yoshi Series Newcomer
x1 Another Unrevealed Third-Party
x1 Pokemon Series Newcomer [Mewtwo not included]
X1 Turian
X1 Pokemon Stadium 3
X1 Luigi’s Mansion 2
X1 Elemental Lighthouse
X1 Smashfloats
X1 Pokefloats
X1 N’s Castle
x1 Chrom and Lucina Team (Fire Emblem)
X1 Lylat Cruise
X1 Microtransactions

 

[Groose]

Yesterday, we rated Bowser Junior's chances. He managed to squeak out a combined total of 42.89%chance, scoring 43.44% on Smashboards and 41.50% on Gamefaqs. Fans were even more polarized when it came to wanting him in the game, splitting right down the middle at 50.09% in want. Gamefaqs dismissed the prince by giving him a 32.85% in want, but Smashboards was much more receptive and gave him a 56.48% want.

Today, a character that rivals even Mr. Game and Watch in terms of flatness steps up to the plate: he isPaper Mario. Please speculate on his odds and say how much you want him in the game.

Oh, and while you're at it, why not speculate at how Lucina (Fire Emblem) will fare? She surged up the nomination list yesterday and will serve as our topic for tomorrow.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Groose, you'll handle the votes on here while I'll handle the votes on GameFAQs, alright?

 

[Groose]

Groose, you'll handle the votes on here while I'll handle the votes on GameFAQs, alright?

Got it. We'll combine at the end of the day.

As of now, I have to run. If a mod comes knocking here and you're still on, could you explain?

Also, if you want to put the updated nominations list on GameFaqs, that may be a nice touch.

 

[SmashShadow]

Paper Mario: 28%
He is heavily requested in Japan but staggers a bit in the west. While he does have a new game under him belt he faces stiff competition from Bowser junior, Toad and even Waluigi who are all feature in many more games. Heck, Toad and Junior were even in Sticker Star. Plus the whole, he's another Mario thing might work against him since we've dialing it down on those kind of characters since Melee.

Want: 25%
I would rather not have different versions of the same character for the sake of roster diversity.

Lucina prediction: 31%

2x Roy
3x Takamaru

 

[MargnetMan23]

Paper Mario: 35% well if Toon Link is a viable character I don't see why this is so out of the realm of possibility. I think he's a bit more likely then Waluigi but maybe that's just me

Want: 30%
I don't personally care about him but he could be cool I guess. I honestly don't really want too many new mario reps honestly

Lucina prediction: 28%

x5 Jigglypuff

 

[Starbound]

Let me know if you guys need a hand with this. I know I'm new, but I'd like to help.

Paper Mario: 55%
He... just seems like he fits in. He's got a wide arsenal of weapons (sure it's a hammer like Dedede's, but D3's lacks the ability to burn, freeze or put to sleep), and I think using Jumps to attack could also be really interesting (Power Bounce as the Neutral Air lets Paper Mario repeatedly use the move without end lag, for example). There's much more depth to him than a 2D Mario.

Want: 95%
Paper Mario TTYD was the game that made me love video games, so this playing as this guy in a fighter would be way awesome for me.

Lucina prediction: 38%
GameFaqs seems to really think she or Chrom is going to be in.

Nomz: Sylveon (Pokemon) x5

 

[Shorts]

Paper Mario: 15% chance. It's just not in the cards as far as I can tell. If we're going for another Mario, I would figure it would be Doc.

Want: 25% Meh. I think the series has about killed itself in my eyes. The first two are amazing, but the second two not so much.

Lucina: 19%

x2 Zoroark
x3 Tharja

 

[TheCreator]

Paper Mario: 26%
I would say there's about one fourth of a chance and a smidge more.
Want: 52% I would prefer bowser jr.
Lucina: 10% Chrom has the limelight, and only one new FE rep will make it.
5x Dillon

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Paper Mario: 45%
He's got a good shot, just has a lot of competition.

Want: 70% He would be really fun and I love the PM series.

Lucina Prediction:33%
Some people are going to think she's super likely cuz bewbs...

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Roy
Dark Samus

Couple of things. Jr. isn't in the list yet. He needs to be added.

Also while not necessary, the music thing SSBF did was cool. Could you bring that back?

 

[Erimir]

Paper Mario

Popularity: He's decently requested in the West, but not top tier (my intuition is that fan requests matter a lot less outside of the top tier). Not top tier in Japan, but we don't have as detailed data. His games are decently popular, selling around a dozen million. If you counted him as a Mario RPG rep generally, that accounts for even more sales.

Relevancy: Well, he's the star of the Paper Mario games, a series with pretty good sales and would be a good representative of the Mario RPGs generally. Super Mario RPG and the Mario & Luigi games don't seem to have as much unique about them (importantly, they don't have as unique a look).

Design: He has some decent potential. Not all of the moves I've seen suggested seem very viable to me though. But paper airplane as a recovery and/or glide, using the hammer, other folding based moves, etc. would be fairly different from Mario.

Roster considerations: Well, Mario series could get a new rep, I suppose. But he'd not only be another Mario rep, but another Mario. Still, the two versions of Link and Dr Mario's presence in Melee show that this is not necessarily a problem.

Competition: Here's where the biggest problems are. I think Bowser Jr and Toad are a little more likely, not being merely different versions of existing characters. There's also competition from Dr Mario, Waluigi, Rosalina, Daisy and WTF characters like Birdo in a relatively more open field compared to some other series.

Paper Mario chances: 12%
In the end, I don't think a new Mario rep is super likely (I think Pokemon, DK and Fire Emblem are the series most likely to get additional reps), and I also think Paper Mario is not the most likely candidate for that slot.

Paper Mario want: 56%
I like him better than Bowser Jr, but I'm not dying to see him in. Could be fun though.

Lucina prediction: 13%
I don't know a lot about the Fire Emblem games as I've only played the one with Lyn. But Roy and Chrom seem to get the most attention, so I don't think she'll score highly.

Nominations:
5x Simon Belmont

 

[Sid-cada]

Paper Mario
Chance - 15% - Way out of his leauge and well competed with other Mario characters, he just feels dwarfed by others.

Want - 35% - Meh. Don't care about him much, and I feel that others are more deserving.


Lucian Prediction - 35% - Just enough people who think she may have some chance to prevent from being completely crushed.

Nominations
Roy X5

(P.S. - SSBF, if you read this, hope you can deal with your problem. I know we never met, but I'll miss having another intelligent speculator.)

 

[jaytalks]

I apologize for the double post.
Paper Mario:
Chance: 25%
Want: 10%

Lucina prediction:
28.76%

Nominations:
Roy x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Chance: 20%
Want: 5%

Lucina: 46.2%

Karate Joe x5

Also you forgot the silly music themes

 

[Xenigma]

Paper Mario - 40%
The second most likely of the Mario franchise. He's got two big pluses: he has tons of potential for a unique moveset, and he would act as a representative for the Paper series and the Mario RPGs in general which continue to be made. Paper Mario also has plenty of fan support on his side, which obviously helps. The only real reason I place him behind Bowser Jr. is since he's not quite as prominent, but I have faith in our flat friend. His chances are also hurt by being one of a few notable Mario candidates and the simple fact that Mario already has a lot of representation in Smash. He should have a solid chance, though, so here's hoping!
Want - 80% - Would be a really unique and interesting addition, and he would make for a really cool secret character kinda like Toon Link was in Brawl.

Lucina Prediction - 20%
Poor Lucina. For all of her positives, she's going to be hammered for "being a Marth clone", arguably being less important than Chrom, and for not really being known that well among the general Smash populace. Oh, and she's one of a million cool Fire Emblem ideas, and everyone knows it. This round is going to sting.

Nominations
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[Xenigma]

Just ran all the Bowser Jr. predictions and it appears the winner is Shortiecanbrawl with a guess of 43%, a mere 0.11% above the actual rating of 42.89%. Since he's the only one to guess that number, he should get 5 extra nominations.

(In case anyone's curious, the next closest predictions were 42.68% by Lightosia, 43.5% by myself, and 42.16% by SSBF. The closest anyone got on GameFAQs was 41% by TheLethalSock.)

 

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 25% - Like I said the previous day, Junior has the best chance of the Mario crew, and if he makes it, chances are very slim of us getting a sixth Mario character, which places Paper Mario solidly under the 50% mark. At this point, I'd probably give him and Toad equal standing in terms of likelihood, but neither are happening before Jr. does.

Want: 50% - I'm gonna split this even because of the two ways they could do him. Either he'll be a dull Mario clone/generic hammer and stomp user in which case no one would care about him, or he could use his partners for the majority of his moves ala Megaman and his RM powers and he could be really unique. But either way I'd still rather see a different character than just flat Mario.

Edit: Oops, forgot predictions and nominations.

Lucina: 15% - Sorry to disappoint all of you waifu-ers, but Lucina's not gonna happen, not with Chrom and Roy VASTLY outshining her in terms of importance and popularity. She's just the latest in a long string of "yes i am girl yes i fight in wars, support me for smash bros because i'm your waifu tee hee" characters that FE spits out every once in a while, like Lyn and Micaiah, and will hopefully fade away within a few months like Micaiah did and not how like Lyn's rabid fans stubbornly refuse to let her go. Alt costume for Marth at best, and I'm doubting even that.

Nominations:
Samurai Goroh x3
Medusa x2

 

[Chauzu]

Good luck to you guys for taking over. I really enjoy this little game and happy that it goes on.

Paper Mario

Likelihood: 25%

As always, this is my gut feeling. He could either be the 5th Mario rep or a rep for the Mario RPG series. If either series gets a (new) rep. Too many question marks to give him more than 25% but I can definately see it happen.

Want: 10%

I like Paper Mario but I don't want "clones" of other chars.

Lucina

Prediction: 20,5%

Nominations

Takamaru x3
Scrooge McDuck x1
Phoenix Wright x1

 

[Sebz]

Paper Mario ~ 23%
He seems to lack support, and I'm not sure Sakurai wants another flat character besides G&W. Also, there are other Mario RPGs out there besides the Paper series, so he lacks that unique oomph.

Want ~ 100%
The Thousand Year Door is on my top 5 games of all time, and every other Paper Mario game has been great. The possibilities for a moveset are amazing, the ability to fold into many different things alone is great, but if he could summon partners from the game that would be awesome.

Lucina ~ 34%
I think either Chrom or Robin deserve the third FE spot the most, but I think she could be a cool Marth alt.

Nominate
Genesect x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Paper Mario:
Likelihood: 30%
I've been increasingly pessimistic of his chances. I'm sure both Toad and Bowser Jr. beat him.

Want: 80%
He and Toad are my most wanted Mario newcomers.

Lucina Prediction: 25%
I'm sure SmashBoards would give very her low scores, not expecting much from GameFAQs either.

Nominations: Lyn x 5

 

[Neanderthal]

Cheers guys for making the new thread. This game is one of the best things about this board.

Paper Mario

Prediction: Just don't see it happening at all. Knowing Sakurai he likes new characters to be a little more interesting, and there are many more interesting unique Mario reps who probably deserve to be in. 5%

Want: May be the only zero I ever give. Really find him incredibly boring and I hate doubles of the same character. 0%

Nominations:
Geno x 5

 

[FalKoopa]

Cheers guys for making the new thread. This game is one of the best things about this board.

Dr Mario

Prediction: Just don't see it happening at all. Knowing Sakurai he likes new characters to be a little more interesting, and there are many more interesting unique Mario reps who probably deserve to be in. 5%

Want: May be the only zero I ever give. Really find him incredibly boring and I hate doubles of the same character. 0%

Nominations:
Geno x 5

Lol, we're rating PAPER mario, not Dr. Mario.

 

[Fastblade5035]

Paper Mario:
Prediction: 42%
Has a lot going for him, but he has to compete with Boozer Jr., WAA, and others.

Want: 80%
One of the very few potential newcomers with an actual chance that I want in.

Lucina: 32%
Urk. My first favorite FE lord, (but not anymore) unfortunately is gonna get a lot of hate and dismissal for being, "a gender-swap Marth"

Nominations;
Owain x 5

 

[Ephecus]

Paper Mario

Likelihood: 40 %
Personally I think Paper Mario represents the Mario RPG Series and because of that should get a slot. His only real competitor in this regard would be Fawful, I think? Also in case he gets in he will most likely be a secret character like TL.

Want: 90 %
Paper Mario has endless possibilites for a unique new set.

Lucina

Prediction: 17%
Despite being one of the more popular FE 13 characters she is kinda bland. I don't think that she will get a spot as a fighter, but she might be an alternate costume for Marth, or even an assist trophy.

Nominations: 3x R.O.B.
1x Jigglypuff
1x Robin

 

[Neanderthal]

Lol, we're rating PAPER mario, not Dr. Mario.

Haha I meant Paper Mario. I was thinking Paper and typed Dr. Force of habit

 

[Xhampi]

Good luck to the new owners of this thread.

Paper Mario : 25 %
Likeliness : He have serious competition in Toad and Bowser Jr.

Want : 90 %
Paper Mario is my second most wanted character after Ridley and I would really like anything representing his series outside of trophies/stickers in this game.

Prediction :
Lucina : 23%

Nomination :
Jigglypuff X 5

 

[SpaceJell0]

Paper Mario

Prediction: 38% unfortunately Mario will probably not get another rep

Want: 100% Paper Mario is super unique, his games are masterpieces (well besides SS), and he has so much DIVERSE moveset potential!

Lucina: 15% Don't know her, but from the looks of it, she looks like a Marth clone

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Paper Mario:

Likelihood: 20% - He is under the boot of Bowser Jr. as far as I see it, and even he isn't guaranteed at all since a new Mario rep isn't very likely in my eyes.

Want: 25% - Not really super interested in him, plus he'd take away part of G&W's uniqueness. Only thing that keep him from hitting rock bottom is moveset potential, and even that I'm not super hyped for.

Lucina Prediction: 13%

Nominations:
5x Ike

 

[PlayerOneTyler]

Paper Mario

Likelihood: 20% I just don't see this happening.


Want: 0% I really don't like this idea. Sorry.


Lucina Prediction: 40%


Nominations: Ice Climbers x5

 

[Knight Dude]

Paper Mario

Likelyhood: 25% - I think that he's under Bowser Jr. and Toad in terms of priority. But it's still slightly possible that he could get added to the roster. If only to have a unique moveset or to rep the RPG Mario games.

Want: 75% - I think he would really be interesting. Given that he has so many things to work with in the four Paper Mario games. Chances are he'll have a really awesome movepool. But I understand why some see him as stepping on Mr.Game and Watch's toes.

Luncina Prediction: 30%

Nominations: Ganondorf x 5

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

I changed the owner of the original thread, but it seems that I came in too late.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Paper Mario: 25% I think he won't get in over Bowser Jr. or Toad
Want: 15% Don't really like the idea

Lucina: 35% Don't see her getting in over Chrom

Nominations:
Lyn x 3
Lucas x 1
Masked Man x 1

 

[Groose]

I changed the owner of the original thread, but it seems that I came in too late.

I believe the transition would go most smoothly if you lock and unpin the old one, pinning this one in its place. We apologize for the inconienience; we acted quickly to preserve the game and there wasn't a mod on at the time.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Part of the problem was that Habanero requested to be the new owner of the older thread, but this thread slipped through my radar when I made the changes. If locking the older thread is the best option, I'll do it, but I'd rather wait until I get a response from Habanero before I do anything else.

 

[Groose]

Part of the problem was that Habanero requested to be the new owner of the older thread, but this thread slipped through my radar when I made the changes. If locking the older thread is the best option, I'll do it, but I'd rather wait until I get a response from Habanero before I do anything else.

I thank you for having patience and understanding. A lot of people really enjoy playing this game; I'm just trying my best to make things work out. I was actually unaware that the coding alowed you to change the owner of a thread, and would not have posted this one had I known.For today, I will tally the votes that are received here; Hananero can decide whether we use the old thread or change it to here.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Paper Mario: 30% If they add a new Mario rep, it will most likely be Bowser Jr. or Toad so...
Want: 25% Meh. I'd rather him be an assist trophy than take up a slot.

Lucina: 35% Based on what I've seen, Roy and Chrom are more likely to get in.

Nominations:
Mach Rider x2
Masked Man x3

 

[Groose]

Paper Mario's Chances: 8%
I'll be frank: I don't see him getting in. If we get a Mario newcomer, it will either be a completely new smasher or a returning Doctor Mario. Paper Mario would require much more work than the Doc, and I don't think Sakurai would see it as worth it. Additionally, Paper Mario hasn't had but one game since Brawl, whereas rivals Bowser Junior and Toad have been in many.

Paper Mario Want: 35%
Although I did create a moveset for him and everything pre-Brawl, I've soured on him considerably. I don't see him as worth the effort he would take to make him not a clone; I also am not a big fan of clones. I wouldn't mind playing as him, but I think Jr. would be better and even Waluigi would bring a more... dynamic feel to the table.

Lucina Prediction: 35%
I'm kind of surprised we're here so early; I thought more people thought Chrom would make a better/more likelyFire Emblem rep. I expect Chrom, and to a lesser extent Roy and Ike, will make people doubt her odds.

Nominations: Tingle x5

 

[Groose]

Just ran all the Bowser Jr. predictions and it appears the winner is Shortiecanbrawl with a guess of 43%, a mere 0.11% above the actual rating of 42.89%. Since he's the only one to guess that number, he should get 5 extra nominations.

(In case anyone's curious, the next closest predictions were 42.68% by Lightosia, 43.5% by myself, and 42.16% by SSBF. The closest anyone got on GameFAQs was 41% by TheLethalSock.)

I'll officially make an update on this at the beginning of the day tomorrow. I apreciate the help.

 

[NickerBocker]

Prediction: Paper Mario ~ 28%
As much as I like the character, there are just better choices that could be made. I recognize his ability to be unique, but I dont see it happening. Bowser jr., Toad and naybe Waluigi are above him in popularity. Even though he could rep his own series, There are more deserving reps that should be in (although an AT would be cool)

Want: 90%
Not my favorite character inclusion, but I have always been a fan of the paper series. His moveaet would be nothing like Mario, and his various partners could play roles in his moves as well.

Lucina Prediction: 21.6%
I feel like Chrom and Roy are held to a higher standard, and have a better chance

EDIT: Nominations:

Rayman x4
Mii