Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[moneyfrenzy]

Likelyhood 20%: If Chrom gets in she has NO chance

Want: 5%: not familiar with her

Roy 10% (there was a reason he was removed)

Bomberman x5

 

[Shotguner159]

can i just say how dumb that sounds. like im not trying to be rude or anything but she travelled back in time and impersonated a guy who was supposed to be dead for what 1,000 years. in yet she wants to minimize her impact on the timeline? again im not trying to be rude it just makes such little sense if u think about it

She doesn't actually disguise herself as Marth, she just uses his name so that when Chrom has his kid, she'll be called Lucina instead of something else as Chrom might not want to name his daughter Lucina if he knows a Lucina. The other part of her disguise, the Mask, is so that no one sees the Brand of the Exalt. No one in-universe actually thinks she's Marth while she's in disguise.

 

[Gam3rALO]

I missed paper Mario...

Lucina
15%
I think they will notadd another rep and if they do it should be chrom.
Want:
0%
No just no. I have never been familiar with FE but when I look a her she doesn't look like a good inclusion at all. I would hate it if she is in.
Sadly Roy is a 5% for me.
Nominations
Takamaru x5

 

[Groose]

Day Over; Return of GROOSE.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Day Over; Return of GROOSE.

THE GROOSE HAS COME TO KILL US ALL D:

 

[Groose]

Lucina leaves her day extremely frustrated. How could she not be? She only managed to convince 22.27% of the community (22.56% Smashboards, 21.8% Gamefaqs) that she would appear. She even failed to rally fan support; only 42.6% of the community (43.4% Smashboards, 41.1% Gamefaqs) approved of her. Even with all her failures, she did succeed in unifying the voices of Gamefaqs and Smashboards---this is the closest they've come to complete agreement since the start of the game. All in all, Lucina was just a girl out of time.

Today we continue the Fire Emblem barrage with another extremely divisive character: our boy Roy. Please give your opinion on him today. Also, please predict how people will rate Mii, who is our contestant tomorrow. (not me, Mii).

XenothiumX is the winner on Smashboards and will receive five extra nominations. Hummingbirdegg is the winner on Gamefaqs and will also receive five extra nominations. On Smashboards, Colder Than Ice and Shortiecanbrawl still have five extra nominations as well.

The Gamefaqs thread of today can be found here.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Roy... Oh boy.
Likeliness 19% I was divided between giving him 20% or 15%... I'm leaning towards 20 So here's why. Frankly the main thing Roy has going for him is high popularity, which would only have a fraction of that support if he wasn't in melee. It is the demand that raises his chances but he has practically nothing else going for him as he currently isn't very relevant at all. I mean unless by whatever chance the next fire emblem game is that Roy game remake which it isn't guaranteed to become reality but if it does then Roy could be in the next game for the same reason. But frankly since that possibility is just that, possible that doesn't raise his chances too much, he relies on too many variables to be likely, how many FE reps they'll allow if they end up with 3 Roy has very little chance with Ike's return being more likely then Roy's (Ike will probably get the same kind of priority Roy got in Brawl) and there being NO WAY IN HELL Roy's going to get in over a Fire Emblem awakening character and even if there will be 4 a second fire emblem awakening character is possible. So things like that reduce the chances...

Want: 10% Meh. Just... Meh. For reasons I'm not going to get much into I am currently unable to play melee (I have played it a reasonable amount though) and Brawl was my first smash game so I have no personal connection to Roy in melee, I didn't play that game he was in, I don't think he would bring that much interesting new stuff to smash etc. I just personally flat out don't care.

Mii prediction: 48% *shrugs*

Nominations
3x Mr. Game and Watch
1x Jigglypuff
1x Tharja

 

[Starbound]

Chances: 53%

Given how close to completion he was in Brawl it's... possible.
And I think he's the only sword using FE Lord who can really have an obvious unique trait (teh ph1r3).
If Sakurai doesn't ask IS what Fire Emblem characters to add, then Marth+Ike+Roy is probably what we're getting.

Roy's popularity is massive, so he does have that to fall back on. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back.

Want: 60%

Predicting a 17% for Mii. Only expecting high scores from people who support the rumors.

Nomz: Sylveon (Pokemon) x5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Chances 50%

Roy was one of my mains in Melee so he would be great to put back in combined with his popularity now



Want 60%

I'm all for it, but I have a feeling they won't put him in.


Mii 45%

I'm all for it, but I can see it as an "extra" slot
Lucario x5

 

[TheMasonOrder]

Roy​

​

Likelihood = 50% - Chances are the same ( if not better) as in Brawl.​

​

Want = 100% - HE'S ROY! <3​

​

Miis = 11%​

​

Nominations: Eirika x5​

 

[jaytalks]

sorry to the owners of the game. I've been unitentionally breaking the rules and have compromised the integrity of the game.
Discount this vote in your tally, and give whatever punishment you feel is right.
likelihood: 10% Roy is no more likely than he was in Brawl and he still didn't make it in. So he won't make it onto the main roster. Smash Bros representation for series has never been solely a popularity contest (except for third party characters, but those weren't series but individuals) and has never been. So his demand in polls won't affect his chances.

Want: 20% Roy was my main back in the Melee days, but there are other FE reps I would say I want before him. It would be ranked higher if I could play his game, but alas, I cannot. I think his clone version would make a good choice for DLC though. I am all for that.

Mii Prediction: 64.64%
nominations Waluigi x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Roy: 40%
He's a highly requested veteran who showed planning for brawl. He's also DLC on FE:Awakening and will show up in the crossover game with Shin Megami Tensei. He's also the only other veteran who was cut that is heavily requested from both Japan and the West. The only thing is, both Chrom and Lucina also show up in those games as well and are extremely popular. There is the added fact that Roy really isn't anymore important in his series than them. Sakurai will add no more than 2 reps for FE this game so we could get both a recent and classic rep. But that's a big if. He could go either way with his decision if he only wants one new character.

Want: 85% He's one of my most wanted for Smash 4. Unclone him, give him more fire and rev him up cause I'm ready to play as him.

Mii: 43% No idea how people will respond to this.

2x Takamaru
3x Toad

 

[MargnetMan23]

Also can I point out Groose that you have Sandbag twice in the nominations? You added Sandbag as a new x5 nomination even though Sandbag already had x56 nomz before that

 

[FlareHabanero]

Also can I point out Groose that you have Sandbag twice in the nominations? You added Sandbag as a new x5 nomination even though Sandbag already had x56 nomz before that

Son of a gun...

I hate compiling votes on a late night.

 

[Arcanir]

Chances-50% He's very much wanted by Japan and the Western fanbase, even being among the top two most wanted characters in the former case. However, unlike Mewtwo (the other character) he doesn't have that relevancy boost that also put him in the spotlight and unlike Ike or Marth didn't get that big a nod in Awakening aside from DLC (Ike got a legacy character, Marth's constantly referred to in game and also got two legacy characters). Because of that, I'm more skeptical of his chances but I'd still say it's a coin flip.

Want-10%, I liked him in Melee but I did not enjoy his character or SoS that much either so because of that I'd prefer other FE characters over him.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Roy:65%
He's one of the most requested characters worldwide. Extremely popular in Japan and very popular here, he's definitely the kind of pick Sakurai is looking for.
His only real competition is Chrom who's got a pretty even chance. It could go either way, I do think that Roy will get priority though, mainly due to veteran status.

Want: 85%
Not my most wanted character, but he's my boy, ya know? I'd love to have him back.

Mii Prediction: 44%
Although I think Mii has a high chance of being put in, others will not be so kind to him.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Ice Climbers
Lucario

 

[Sid-cada]

Roy

Chance - 75% - Fire Emblem is a very tricky series to predict. I think Roy and Chrom are about equal, with Roy having a slight edge due to veteran status and popularity.

Want - 75% - I have no connections with Melee, but man, having a cut must hurt. While a reworked move-set would be nice, I want those who suffered a cut to have a healed wound.


Mii Prediction - 47% - Oh, joy... Some might believe in the rumor, but there is enough hate to bring them down.

Nominations
Lucario X5

 

[Xenigma]

Thanks to Shotguner159 for explaining Lucina as Marth a bit better than I did. Time travel logic always comes out a bit weird I suppose. Anyway...

Roy - 10%
I put forward my prediction for Fire Emblem back in my Lucina rating. As it pertains to Roy, I believe he loses out by virtue of Fire Emblem likely not getting four reps. Marth will be safe, Ike has a compelling case to return due to persistent popularity and relevance alongside a unique moveset, and Lucina or Chrom rounds out the list to represent the very popular Awakening. Roy has popularity, sure, but he's crippled by a clone moveset and minimal importance within Fire Emblem since Melee. Now, if DLC characters do happen, Roy seems like he would have a great chance to appear there. On disc, though, I foresee a repeat of Brawl: maybe considered as a minimal priority filler character, but ultimately won't make the cut.
Want - 10% - I have some nostalgia for him in Melee, but he just isn't a very interesting inclusion. Would be neat if he appeared with his Awakening look though.

Mii Prediction - 66.7%
The last of the rumored characters, and while a lot of hate exists, I think rumor believers will push the rating pretty high, not to mention other very plausible reasons for inclusion.

Nominations
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[Jedisupersonic]

Roy: 80%: Due to being only really behind Mewtwo in terms of wanted returners [and even among newcomers almost] The only thing that stands in his way is Chrom. Sakurai will decide which is the right choice in the end. Roy fans have been fighting for his return for a long time. Maybe overshadowed by Mewtwo a slight bit but we stand strong.With Namco at Sakurai's side and much inspiration to take from Roy's Sword of Seals animations and abilities I see him easily making it back. Being one of the forbidden 7 isn't shabby either. He was considered for Brawl.

Want: 100%. My Most wanted returning character in Smash 4 other then Sonic.

Mii Prediction: 55%

Nominations: Sonic X5

 

[Erimir]

Roy. Yay, more Fire Emblem...

Popularity: Roy is top tier with Smash fan demand. His popularity among players who are hardcore Smash players I don't know so much about. I'm guessing Chrom beats him there, given that FE: Awakening has better sales and is available in the West unlike Roy's game.

Relevancy: His most relevant appearances are about ten years ago (Melee and his FE game). The fact that he's DLC for Awakening doesn't seem that relevant to me. That's not a whole lot stronger evidence than being an AT or regular trophy in Brawl.

Design: Well, we saw his design already. He could certainly be more Luigi-fied. He has a fire theme, so there's a bit they could do with that to further differentiate him from Marth. But still, he's like other FE characters, which makes him not as unique as many other options.

Roster: He'd be returning from Melee, so he has that going for him. He's also not blue-haired, unlike Chrom. Which is nice I guess. Yet another sword-wielding FE lord gets to be a bit like the spacies though (they might play different, but conceptually they're quite similar)

Sakurai knowledge: Roy was intended to be in Brawl, and Sakurai has said that he doesn't like cuts. Sakurai could see putting him back in as a way to rectify that. Or he might decide what's done is done and leave him out. Who knows?

Competition: As I mentioned before, the main FE characters are all quite similar. Which is why I doubt we'll see four of them (in addition to Fire Emblem not having huge sales), so there's a very good chance he's competing for just one spot against Chrom and Lucina.

Roy chances: 43%
I think he has the best chances out of the FE crew, mostly because of the fact that he nearly tops the fan demand list in both Japan and the West. He also has more unique move set potential than some other FE options.

Roy want: 30%
I don't particularly want any more FE sword-wielders, but Roy gets more points for having the fire gimmick to make his move set more interesting. My want will be even lower for Chrom and other FE characters similar.

Another reason I'm not excited about FE sword-wielders is that there are deserving characters from other series that are also male sword-wielders (Shulk and Isaac, for example), and so there's some stepping on toes there.

Mii prediction: 60%
There are people who believe the "leak" (even though it was 50% wrong about E3). But there are also people who think that Wii Fit Trainer fills the kind of role Mii would have or that Smash doesn't fit the image Nintendo would like to maintain for Miis. But Miis are kinda everywhere, so I think most people will think they have a decent chance of appearing.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

Smash Bros representation for series has never been solely a popularity contest (except for third party characters, but those weren't series but individuals) and has never been.

I'm pretty sure popularity plays a pretty large part. Why do you think Sakurai took a poll in the first place? Sakurai said he was considering information about fan desires for this game as well.

It's not the ONLY consideration, and in all the games he gave a couple slots to characters that comparatively little modern popularity/fan desire. Roy can also count considering his game hadn't been released yet. Wii Fit Trainer fits into that mold as well.

The most popular and famous characters are already in the game, so it will be less of a factor this time around, I think. But there's a reason the most popular characters are already all in, and it isn't because popularity is irrelevant.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Roy is a character only wanted by smash melee veterans and we're all aware (and often annoyed) that Brawl was designed to open the series up to new more casual players, who's knowledge of Roy is either non-existent or comes from one game on the GBA (he appears briefly at the end of it's prequel but as a baby so I'm not counting it). Roy may be a popular character with the vocal smash veterans, but I doubt he has any call among the average player, and he'd ONLY be there for popularity sake, not for the consideration of his own game. Not to say he doesn't have any worth, he is the primary protagonist of the Elibe duology, which back in melee was the only departure from Archanea, Valnetia and Jugdral, but in terms of other timeline heroes we already have Ike from Tellius, if you argue Roy should be in the game for that then we also need someone from Magvel... which we really don't. Considering the FE series he has no chance, but considering smash he does have popularity and if DLC characters are used in smash I think Roy will be one of the first on the list.. but I'm going to make my predictions on initial roster:

Chance: 12%
He has enough popularity to be included as a nod to the fans, but his entire purpose for inclusion would be for the old smash players. Some would call it a peace offering for the competitive, but it would confuse others. Also if Roy gets in and either Ike is out or an awakening rep isn't in, which will rile more people.. if they add all four/five then people will feel it's a fire emblem fighting game, and we already get enough derision about having two boys with swords in smash. While on a board of staunch melee players he'll be popular I think in the wider community he'll cause more hurt than praise, and I'm pretty sure Sakurai will have thought about this the same as me.
As I said though, I could see Roy DLC working, with a very high chance (80+%).

Want: negative 20%
If he's in there I would never pick him, but I would be annoyed that he possibly took the slot of a better FE representative. I honestly want (20%) him to NOT be in the initial roster of the game. If he was I'd never choose him, but I play random a lot so would come across him, he'd be an okay fighter, but I'd still prefer another FE character instead.
If it's DLC then I would still only give a 1% want, but I could understand and wouldn't be annoyed at it, just not particularly happy about it either.


Mii: 23.33%
This is a competitive board, most of us don't play games with Miis anyways, and they bring the unsavoury flavours of badly balanced customisation... That said they'll no doubt have their supporters, and they are a big part of the Wii so they'll get votes for relevency I'm sure.


5* Slime

 

[FalKoopa]

Ah, Roy.
Chances: 75%
He's a melee veteran which means he already has a moveset which can be used a base for decloning him, he's very highly requested, he was planned for Brawl (although he had less priority), and stands out much more than Chrom or Lucina due to not having blue hair and having a fire sword.

Want: 90%
I have too many fond memories of getting OHKO'ed by his fire attack in Melee. I've also played his game, which though not the best FE game I've played, but it's still enjoyable.

Mii Prediction: 50%
It'll be an even split, I think. Miis always had a chance even before the leak (which I don't believe in, by the way).

Nominations: Lyn x 5

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Roy
Likelihood: 65%
I won't lie and say Roy is a guarantee(unlike the "supporters" of certain FE characters). He has things going against him. There's the fact that he could return as a clone character. Additionally, his game was never released in the West(nor is it well regarded here either). His game is now over a decade old, which could hurt his chances a s well. However,I will note that Roy has more going for him than his detractors generally give him credit for. Roy has his veteran status, plus evidence that he was not only planned, but made it into some development stage in Brawl(with an empty character folder and an unused dummy victory fanfare file). He also has more popularity that any other potential FE character(and no, it doesn't matter that his popularity comes mostly from Smash fans and not FE fans), From what I've heard, his game is seen as important among the Japanese FE fanbase, being seen as something of a revival for the series there, plus the first FE game made without the involvement of the series creator Shouzou Kaga.

Want: 85%
I would really like to see him back, decloned and with a moveset that beter takes advantage of the unique properties of the SoS(i.e. t3h ph1r3). I do have some other FE characters I'd rather see(Robin or Anna), but if we got Roy instead I can't say I'd be unhappy.

Prediction for Mii: 68%

Nominations:
Anna x5

Edit: How the f*** does Owain have more nominations than Anna? Or other more important FE characters? F***ing GameFaqs....

 

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 65% - The way I see it, if we get another FE character beyond Marth and Ike for Smash 4, it's gonna be a toss-up between Roy and Chrom. This is a pretty generally agreed upon statement. However, I'm putting Roy firmly above Chrom in terms of chances just based on how different the general consensus is between the two of them. Roy is one of, if not THE most requested character in Japan, and his fanbase in the west is nothing to scoff at either. On the other hand, Chrom is not really wanted as much as he is theorized, only on the grounds that he's the latest lord. Roy's return to the franchise as DLC was met with applause not only for the character but also due to his new design. Meanwhile, Chrom's character and design has been met with a resounding "meh". Roy has been shown to have more than enough potential for a unique moveset and gimmick with fire, while Chrom's been pegged as fighting very similarly to Ike. In almost every category except for recency, Roy beats out Chrom, or is at least tied with him. Hence why I find our boy to be more likely, but admittedly, not by much. I wouldn't be surprised if Chrom got the roster spot due to meddling by IS, but if there's one thing I'm sure of, it's that eventually, if not in the initial roster then eventually via DLC, we'll have all four FE lords on the roster by the time Sakurai's done with the game.

Want: 90% - Roy fits nicely into the second highest tier of my want list, as I enjoyed him in Melee, and I feel that he and Mewtwo are the only two melee vets who didn't really deserve to be cut and that don't make sense as alt costumes.

Mii Prediction: 50% Gonna split this even between people who believe in that old rumor and people like myself who don't really think they're necessary.

Nominations:
Samurai Goroh x3
Medusa x2

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelyhood: 35%
Want: 50%

Miis: 58.2%

Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven) x5

 

[A Shameful Lucas]

Likelyhood:65% Roy's only real competition is Chrom, but I think Roy in the long run can be more unique than Chrom, if he comes back he will be decloned as well, and a very big fanbase who wants him back.

Want:85%

Miis: 55%

Sonic x5

 

[Starbound]

>looks at these scores

ohey, roy's doing pretty much as expected over here

>looks at gamefaqs

wow so many 1s

 

[Swamp Sensei]

>looks at these scores

ohey, roy's doing pretty much as expected over here

>looks at gamefaqs

wow so many 1s

Let me guess.

They keep spouting stuff about Chrom and Lucina?

 

[PK_Wonder]

Roy - 15%

I feel like he's third in priority after Chrom and Lucina, and Ike is debatable. Also, why is Yoshi not not being voted on?

Ghirahim x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I feel like he's third in priority after Chrom and Lucina, and Ike is debatable. Also, why is Yoshi not not being voted on?

There's no doubt in him leaving.

We all think he's good as confirmed.

 

[FalKoopa]

Oi, it looks like jaytalks is voting twice, once here, and once on GameFAQs. There is a post by a user named "thejka" on the GameFAQs thread which is worded almost exactly the same and even has the same nominations (Waluigi x 5) as jaytalks's post here.

 

[---]

Roy - 50%
Want - 50%
+ Popular
+ Planned for Brawl
+ Has more to work with for a moveset
- Fair Competition
- Is under Marth & Ike on the FE totem poll

 

[jaytalks]

I'm pretty sure popularity plays a pretty large part. Why do you think Sakurai took a poll in the first place? Sakurai said he was considering information about fan desires for this game as well.

It's not the ONLY consideration, and in all the games he gave a couple slots to characters that comparatively little modern popularity/fan desire. Roy can also count considering his game hadn't been released yet. Wii Fit Trainer fits into that mold as well.

The most popular and famous characters are already in the game, so it will be less of a factor this time around, I think. But there's a reason the most popular characters are already all in, and it isn't because popularity is irrelevant.

What I meant by that comment is that Roy has his popularity within the Smash community, but that is not enough to get him in the game. If you look at Shortie's poll, he ranks currently below the other two FE returners. Because that's what he is. A returner. I think too many people are treating his popularity as if he were a newcomer, rather than a returner.
I know that fan popularity plays a role. That's why I said "never been solely a popularity contest." I'm sure fan popularity plays a role. But within the context of his series, there is no real reason for Roy to be in the game. That weighs more heavily for the way I voted, because I think that's he would solely get in do to popularity with one really loud fanbase. Cheezey Bites said it way better:

Roy is a character only wanted by smash melee veterans and we're all aware (and often annoyed) that Brawl was designed to open the series up to new more casual players, who's knowledge of Roy is either non-existent or comes from one game on the GBA (he appears briefly at the end of it's prequel but as a baby so I'm not counting it). Roy may be a popular character with the vocal smash veterans, but I doubt he has any call among the average player, and he'd ONLY be there for popularity sake, not for the consideration of his own game. Not to say he doesn't have any worth, he is the primary protagonist of the Elibe duology, which back in melee was the only departure from Archanea, Valnetia and Jugdral, but in terms of other timeline heroes we already have Ike from Tellius, if you argue Roy should be in the game for that then we also need someone from Magvel... which we really don't. Considering the FE series he has no chance, but considering smash he does have popularity and if DLC characters are used in smash I think Roy will be one of the first on the list.. but I'm going to make my predictions on initial roster:

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Oi, it looks like jaytalks is voting twice, once here, and once on GameFAQs. There is a post by a user named "thejka" on the GameFAQs thread which is worded almost exactly the same and even has the same nominations (Waluigi x 5) as jaytalks's post here.

Well then.

We may have a cheater on our hands...

Or if the people in charge already know this and don't count him twice, then we simply have an upstanding individual who want to spark discussion.

Which is it?

YOU DECIDE!

 

[jaytalks]

i didnt you couldnt vote twice. thats me. feel free to do the appropriate punishment. i thought the threads are separate that's why they have different percentages. my bad. didnt look at the rules carefully.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

i didnt you couldnt vote twice. thats me. feel free to do the appropriate punishment. i thought the threads are separate that's why they have different percentages.

No offense bud but...

Why on earth would you think you could vote twice?!?! The totals are calculated together to make one big score.

 

[jaytalks]

i misread the rules and results everything. i think ive messed up both scores so I will probably remove myself from this game entirely. I assure you that there was no attempt to misrepresent the scores anything. i didnt decode the posts or anything, and I use the same sig. im a member of gamefaqs so i vote on things as well. I apologize for ruining this game for anyone else.

 

[Ephecus]

Roy
Likeliness: 70 %
He seems like one of the Melee veterans who is most likely to make a return (together with Mewtwo). Also there is a chance that they revamp his moveset to make him more original.

Want: 70 %
Although he is a clone of marth I always enjoyed playing against Roy in Melee. Seeing him cut in Brawl was kind of unexpected for me.

Mii: 55%
Miis have a decent amount of popularity and are one of the most recent characters. I personally think that the Villager might slim their chances (being customable and whatnot) but some seem to believe the "leak".

Nomination:
5x Jigglypuff

 

[Ephecus]

Unintentional doublepost, please delete

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Roy:

Likelihood: 45%

Want: 10%

Mii Prediction: 63%

Nominations:
5x Ike