D
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I added all of my scores, divided by 10, and then multiplied by .50. I know that I am doing something wrong...
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Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!
- Thread starter Groose
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Cheezey Bites
Slime Knight
Sadly it's not that easy, that'll just find half of the average. To find the answer properly you need either a 10-dimensional matrix or to simply list the number of outcomes that create a positive answer to the question.
I did the latter here, where you can just type in your chances to get the correct results... Probabilities are unfortunately rather complicated, and get very long winded at this sort of scale and complexity.
D
Deleted member
Guest
O-oh my.
Unfortunately, I can't download this... but you said that the overall chance was 93.42% chance, no? I'll use that number instead.
Xenigma
Smash Lord
For sake of accurate numbers, I'll go ahead and plug in my most recent ratings (both chance and want) into Cheezey's spreadsheet:
Palutena - 95% Chance, 50% Want
Pac-Man - 75% Chance, 50% Want
Shulk - 35% Chance, 50% Want
K. Rool - 45% Chance, 75% Want
Chrom - 45% Chance, 50% Want
Mii - 75% Chance, 50% Want
Dixie - 30% Chance, 90% Want
Takamaru - 25% Chance, 50% Want
Isaac - 50% Chance, 100% Want
Ridley - 50% Chance, 75% Want
That leaves the chance at 69.92% and want at 91.27%, which is nice math-wise...but that's also kinda boring. How does it really work out?
Well, I'll go ahead and consider what I expect to happen going into E3. All evidence points to Palutena being in, so that's one. Pac-Man and Mii both seem likely to pull through to prove the first Gematsu leak true, making it three. Finally, it sure feels like the year-long Ridley tease campaign is leading up to a playable reveal, which totals up to four out of the ten that I'm thinking make it. That leaves six I'm less sure of, but there's plenty of reason to believe we'll get at least one of them. Getting K. Rool or Dixie as a third DK rep remains a strong possibility, as does getting at least one fan-favorite JRPG protagonist in Isaac or Shulk. Chrom remains a top pick for a potential third FE pick, despite being ridiculously redundant to Marth and Ike, and Takamaru remains, if not especially likely in my eyes, a solid possibility for a retro. Ultimately it feels like we'll get roughly 6-7 of the top ten, and it really does feel like nearly 70% is a solid number for the chance on five, so yeah, I'm happy with that number.
Now, there's want. As can be told by the minimum 50% want for each of the ten, I'm fairly content with any of the lot making it in, and there's four I'd be quite happy to see for one reason or another, including at least one I'm feeling will make it in with Ridley and one in Isaac where I'd be thrilled regardless of the other four. That said, there's also six characters on that 50% line which I equate to feeling neutral, and I can't say I'd be happy if I missed all four I'm rooting for or even only got one like Ridley. To that end, I'm going to veer from my want average a bit and peg it down to 75%: generally I can see myself enjoying getting five of our top ten, but there's enough potential for overall disappointment that I can't give it too high a rating either.
Half of Rate Their Chance Top 10 - 69.92%
Want - 75%
Finally, the grade. Generally, I don't think our ratings are bad per se, but pretty much everyone includes too much character bias (myself absolutely included), we allow possible leaks and deconfirmations to influence ratings too much, and we ride too much on false expectations that allow for complete misses like Greninja. We also generally rate too generously, to the degree that if we averaged everything we'd probably be expecting a roster well above 50 characters. It's tough to fault us too much because we're crowd-sourcing predictions of the unpredictable Sakurai, which is a difficult task for anyone to pull off, but it's clear we have lots of room to improve.
Overall Rating Accuracy - C
Palutena - 95% Chance, 50% Want
Pac-Man - 75% Chance, 50% Want
Shulk - 35% Chance, 50% Want
K. Rool - 45% Chance, 75% Want
Chrom - 45% Chance, 50% Want
Mii - 75% Chance, 50% Want
Dixie - 30% Chance, 90% Want
Takamaru - 25% Chance, 50% Want
Isaac - 50% Chance, 100% Want
Ridley - 50% Chance, 75% Want
That leaves the chance at 69.92% and want at 91.27%, which is nice math-wise...but that's also kinda boring. How does it really work out?
Well, I'll go ahead and consider what I expect to happen going into E3. All evidence points to Palutena being in, so that's one. Pac-Man and Mii both seem likely to pull through to prove the first Gematsu leak true, making it three. Finally, it sure feels like the year-long Ridley tease campaign is leading up to a playable reveal, which totals up to four out of the ten that I'm thinking make it. That leaves six I'm less sure of, but there's plenty of reason to believe we'll get at least one of them. Getting K. Rool or Dixie as a third DK rep remains a strong possibility, as does getting at least one fan-favorite JRPG protagonist in Isaac or Shulk. Chrom remains a top pick for a potential third FE pick, despite being ridiculously redundant to Marth and Ike, and Takamaru remains, if not especially likely in my eyes, a solid possibility for a retro. Ultimately it feels like we'll get roughly 6-7 of the top ten, and it really does feel like nearly 70% is a solid number for the chance on five, so yeah, I'm happy with that number.
Now, there's want. As can be told by the minimum 50% want for each of the ten, I'm fairly content with any of the lot making it in, and there's four I'd be quite happy to see for one reason or another, including at least one I'm feeling will make it in with Ridley and one in Isaac where I'd be thrilled regardless of the other four. That said, there's also six characters on that 50% line which I equate to feeling neutral, and I can't say I'd be happy if I missed all four I'm rooting for or even only got one like Ridley. To that end, I'm going to veer from my want average a bit and peg it down to 75%: generally I can see myself enjoying getting five of our top ten, but there's enough potential for overall disappointment that I can't give it too high a rating either.
Half of Rate Their Chance Top 10 - 69.92%
Want - 75%
Finally, the grade. Generally, I don't think our ratings are bad per se, but pretty much everyone includes too much character bias (myself absolutely included), we allow possible leaks and deconfirmations to influence ratings too much, and we ride too much on false expectations that allow for complete misses like Greninja. We also generally rate too generously, to the degree that if we averaged everything we'd probably be expecting a roster well above 50 characters. It's tough to fault us too much because we're crowd-sourcing predictions of the unpredictable Sakurai, which is a difficult task for anyone to pull off, but it's clear we have lots of room to improve.
Overall Rating Accuracy - C
The Light Music Club
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Half of Rate Their Chance Top 10 - 40% Chance.
Half of RTC want: 30% - I just want King K and Palutena. But a bump up if it means Mii, Pacman, and Chrom aren't part of that half
Overall Rating Accuracy - C - I don't see how some of these characters were ranked this high at all. Especially Mii and Takumaru
Half of RTC want: 30% - I just want King K and Palutena. But a bump up if it means Mii, Pacman, and Chrom aren't part of that half
Overall Rating Accuracy - C - I don't see how some of these characters were ranked this high at all. Especially Mii and Takumaru
BluePikmin11
Akko is my dear daughter!
Half RTC Chance: 10% There's a few extra ones whom I think are guarenteed to make it as playable (Takamaru and Dixie) along with Chrom, Palutena, Pac-Man, Shulk, and Mii. (5 other characters surely taking the newcomer spots now)
Grading Accuracy: D+ Most of the time, whenever it's not a popular newcomer, we get some of the lowest ratings here due to bias and things that don't really benefit a newcomer's chances. I say that accuracy is pretty bad if I had to be honest, most of us are still on the same path as last year for speculating.
Grading Accuracy: D+ Most of the time, whenever it's not a popular newcomer, we get some of the lowest ratings here due to bias and things that don't really benefit a newcomer's chances. I say that accuracy is pretty bad if I had to be honest, most of us are still on the same path as last year for speculating.
NickerBocker
Smash Lord
Half of RTC
Chance: 60%
Want: 90%
There are a few characters on the list that I find almost guaranteed, Palutena for example. There are also ones on the list that I support a lot. I would surprised if half didnt show up.
Grading Accuracy: C+
Okay, but not great, because I can almost guarantee that there is at least one character we havent even considered, similar to WFT, or ones we dont think have a strong chance, like Rosalina, that will end up in the game. We have however predicted Megaman and Little Mac with extreme confidence (Megaman way back before E3 2013.) I think were alright at seeing chances, but keep in mind that we cannot quantify a true chance rating even after the character is shown.
A high chance does not equal a guarantee, and a low chance doesnt exclude them from inclusion. This is more of a ranking system of characters chances relative to eachother.
Chance: 60%
Want: 90%
There are a few characters on the list that I find almost guaranteed, Palutena for example. There are also ones on the list that I support a lot. I would surprised if half didnt show up.
Grading Accuracy: C+
Okay, but not great, because I can almost guarantee that there is at least one character we havent even considered, similar to WFT, or ones we dont think have a strong chance, like Rosalina, that will end up in the game. We have however predicted Megaman and Little Mac with extreme confidence (Megaman way back before E3 2013.) I think were alright at seeing chances, but keep in mind that we cannot quantify a true chance rating even after the character is shown.
A high chance does not equal a guarantee, and a low chance doesnt exclude them from inclusion. This is more of a ranking system of characters chances relative to eachother.
Mega Bidoof
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It's 5 or more, I think. (I gave my rating based on that anyway.)@Groose , what does it mean by "Half?"
Are we rating the probability that 5 OR MORE characters on the top then list will get in, or are we rating the chance that 5 OR LESS will be in? Or are we rating exactly 5?
Cheezey Bites
Slime Knight
That's what my calc is made to work out so if it's not that we've got a bunch of wrong answers...
jaytalks
Smash Champion
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Half RTC Prediction:
25%
The main doubt I have about is that I think we might only get around three newcomers, so that make that list challenging.
Want:100%
I would love to be wrong though.
RTC Grade: C+
I think overallly we are slightly above average.
25%
The main doubt I have about is that I think we might only get around three newcomers, so that make that list challenging.
Want:100%
I would love to be wrong though.
RTC Grade: C+
I think overallly we are slightly above average.
False Sense
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Half of the Top 10: 60% Chance, 50% Want
Characters like Palutena and Pac-Man are very likely, at least one Donkey Kong newcomer is likely, and the rest are fairly likely, even Ridley. So I think it's very possible we'll see at least half. I don't necessarily care for all of them, though.
RTC Grade: C
I don't think we're that good at this.
Characters like Palutena and Pac-Man are very likely, at least one Donkey Kong newcomer is likely, and the rest are fairly likely, even Ridley. So I think it's very possible we'll see at least half. I don't necessarily care for all of them, though.
RTC Grade: C
I don't think we're that good at this.
According to my calculations, I would give the chances of at least five of the top ten as somewhere around 63% if I'm pessimistic and around 81% if I'm somewhat optimistic on the characters. I'm inclined to lean towards the more optimistic.
So chances of 5+ out of 10? I'll say 76.54%, after going back and forth on scores.
I actually want about 6 of them. I'm mostly indifferent to Pac-Man and Takamaru. I want Mii and Chrom not to make it. So in most scenarios, I like the outcome. I thought about weighting by their likelihood, but I don't weight my want scores that way any other time. And in any case, it didn't make a lot of difference.
So for want, I calculated my want for each scenario (basically my average want score for each character to be in or not in), but gave extra emphasis to Ridley and K Rool. If Ridley and K Rool both get in, that scenario is basically one that I want a lot (>90%), even if the rest were my least favorite of the ten. Then I just averaged across the scenarios.
Half RTC Top Ten chance: 75.91%
This is likely to happen. There are just a lot of ways to get to 5 out of 10, especially since Palutena and Pac-Man are very, very likely, you only need three more... And Chrom is also very likely, and several others have decent chances.
Half RTC Top Ten want: 68.21%
Most of the scenarios I'll be getting at least two or three characters I want, and a decent number will have either K Rool or Ridley... and the ones where I get both basically mean I'll be satisfied with the roster. So overall, this will generally please me.
NOTE! These are for our current top ten. One of our top ten already made it.
Grade for our predictions:
We have to grade given what we know. We're not going to be perfect without insider information. So an A should be predicting around the right roster size, beating naive baseline predictions, and having solid performance in ranking of characters. And accounting for all the possibilities.
Well, the predictions for Brawl were not very good. They wildly overpredicted the number of slots. Beyond that, they also had some really bad misses. Mathematically speaking, they were worse than just predicting the Melee roster would repeat itself. So I'll cut them some slack, and look at it from a ranking point of view.
7 out of their top ten made it. But their job was a little easier back then, with some low-hanging fruit like Sonic, Diddy and King Dedede. Of the 23 newcomers they rated over 50%, only 8 made it. They predicted 15 of them to make it. Of their top hundred, they predicted about 38 would make it... but only 10 did.
All in all, they should have adjusted their scores downward by a lot, because a roster over 40 or so for Brawl was very unlikely, and they were predicting it would be like 80, meaning they were either delusional or really bad at math.
We're a lot better this time around. We may have underestimated Rosalina's chances, but she's still ranked a respectable 30 on our list (1/6 of the way down our list). ROB was ranked 110th on the GameFAQs Brawl RTC (1/4 of the way down their list). They gave him higher chances, but their numbers were also way inflated, as I've already pointed out. We got it wrong, but we shouldn't feel too bad about it - if we think our scores are accurate, we should get at least a couple of characters from the lower end of our distribution.
So, GameFAQs Brawl RTC grade:
Quantitative evaluation (Brier score): F
Roster size: F- (this was just awful)
Top Ten: B+
Ranking: C
Big whiffs: C (Pokemon Trainer)
Overall: F
They get credit for good performance in their top ten... But that's the only thing they did well. Subtract a lot for their ridiculously high scores for everyone else, and the fact that according to Brier score, they were worse than just predicting the Melee roster. They missed Pokemon Trainer, but in their defense, Pokemon is probably the hardest series to predict for. On the other hand, PT was from Gen 1, so they had plenty of time to think of him. And they rated 400 characters...
Right now, I'd say...
SmashBoards Smash4 RTC:
Brier score: B
Roster size: B
Top Ten: C+
Ranking: C+
Big whiffs: B- (Greninja)
SmashBoards Smash4 RTC grade: B-
We've got a solid top ten, and our scores appropriately drop off quickly after that. I think we can beat simply predicting the Brawl cast to return in Brier score. But I think our scores are still a bit too high (most of the characters out of our top 50 or so should be in the 1% or less range, and our initial scores were even worse... with more info we're better, but duh). But our roster isn't too inflated. And I think the order we have the characters ranked is not bad.
But we did miss Greninja altogether. Although, again, Pokemon has the largest cast and so is the hardest to predict. Compared to GameFAQs, we only rated about half as many characters, and Greninja didn't even debut until after we started the game, so it's a lot more excusable.
All in all, I think we're doing decently - better than most.
If we're grading on a curve, judging by Miiverse and other places I've seen predictions, I think we're doing alright.
Because of the combinatorics, people will be surprised at how high the chances of this are. Some of you are really far off. For example...
If you think their chances are a bit higher, the overall would correspondingly be a bit higher (maybe around 80%?).
But I instead wrote a little Python script. The thing is, there are 1024 scenarios (each of ten characters has two possibilities, 2^10 = 1024). So, the easiest way to generate scenarios? The numbers 0 to 1024 in binary!
Then I picked out the combinations with >=5 characters, multiplied their chances accordingly and added the scenarios all up.
So chances of 5+ out of 10? I'll say 76.54%, after going back and forth on scores.
I actually want about 6 of them. I'm mostly indifferent to Pac-Man and Takamaru. I want Mii and Chrom not to make it. So in most scenarios, I like the outcome. I thought about weighting by their likelihood, but I don't weight my want scores that way any other time. And in any case, it didn't make a lot of difference.
So for want, I calculated my want for each scenario (basically my average want score for each character to be in or not in), but gave extra emphasis to Ridley and K Rool. If Ridley and K Rool both get in, that scenario is basically one that I want a lot (>90%), even if the rest were my least favorite of the ten. Then I just averaged across the scenarios.
Half RTC Top Ten chance: 75.91%
This is likely to happen. There are just a lot of ways to get to 5 out of 10, especially since Palutena and Pac-Man are very, very likely, you only need three more... And Chrom is also very likely, and several others have decent chances.
Half RTC Top Ten want: 68.21%
Most of the scenarios I'll be getting at least two or three characters I want, and a decent number will have either K Rool or Ridley... and the ones where I get both basically mean I'll be satisfied with the roster. So overall, this will generally please me.
NOTE! These are for our current top ten. One of our top ten already made it.
Grade for our predictions:
We have to grade given what we know. We're not going to be perfect without insider information. So an A should be predicting around the right roster size, beating naive baseline predictions, and having solid performance in ranking of characters. And accounting for all the possibilities.
Well, the predictions for Brawl were not very good. They wildly overpredicted the number of slots. Beyond that, they also had some really bad misses. Mathematically speaking, they were worse than just predicting the Melee roster would repeat itself. So I'll cut them some slack, and look at it from a ranking point of view.
7 out of their top ten made it. But their job was a little easier back then, with some low-hanging fruit like Sonic, Diddy and King Dedede. Of the 23 newcomers they rated over 50%, only 8 made it. They predicted 15 of them to make it. Of their top hundred, they predicted about 38 would make it... but only 10 did.
All in all, they should have adjusted their scores downward by a lot, because a roster over 40 or so for Brawl was very unlikely, and they were predicting it would be like 80, meaning they were either delusional or really bad at math.
We're a lot better this time around. We may have underestimated Rosalina's chances, but she's still ranked a respectable 30 on our list (1/6 of the way down our list). ROB was ranked 110th on the GameFAQs Brawl RTC (1/4 of the way down their list). They gave him higher chances, but their numbers were also way inflated, as I've already pointed out. We got it wrong, but we shouldn't feel too bad about it - if we think our scores are accurate, we should get at least a couple of characters from the lower end of our distribution.
So, GameFAQs Brawl RTC grade:
Quantitative evaluation (Brier score): F
Roster size: F- (this was just awful)
Top Ten: B+
Ranking: C
Big whiffs: C (Pokemon Trainer)
Overall: F
They get credit for good performance in their top ten... But that's the only thing they did well. Subtract a lot for their ridiculously high scores for everyone else, and the fact that according to Brier score, they were worse than just predicting the Melee roster. They missed Pokemon Trainer, but in their defense, Pokemon is probably the hardest series to predict for. On the other hand, PT was from Gen 1, so they had plenty of time to think of him. And they rated 400 characters...
Right now, I'd say...
SmashBoards Smash4 RTC:
Brier score: B
Roster size: B
Top Ten: C+
Ranking: C+
Big whiffs: B- (Greninja)
SmashBoards Smash4 RTC grade: B-
We've got a solid top ten, and our scores appropriately drop off quickly after that. I think we can beat simply predicting the Brawl cast to return in Brier score. But I think our scores are still a bit too high (most of the characters out of our top 50 or so should be in the 1% or less range, and our initial scores were even worse... with more info we're better, but duh). But our roster isn't too inflated. And I think the order we have the characters ranked is not bad.
But we did miss Greninja altogether. Although, again, Pokemon has the largest cast and so is the hardest to predict. Compared to GameFAQs, we only rated about half as many characters, and Greninja didn't even debut until after we started the game, so it's a lot more excusable.
All in all, I think we're doing decently - better than most.
If we're grading on a curve, judging by Miiverse and other places I've seen predictions, I think we're doing alright.
Because of the combinatorics, people will be surprised at how high the chances of this are. Some of you are really far off. For example...
If I assume you give 90% to Palutena and Pac-Man, "likely" means 60%, 35% to the "40-ish" and 1% to Ridley... You should be saying: ~69%
If you think their chances are a bit higher, the overall would correspondingly be a bit higher (maybe around 80%?).
You beat me to giving out some correct numbers.
But I instead wrote a little Python script. The thing is, there are 1024 scenarios (each of ten characters has two possibilities, 2^10 = 1024). So, the easiest way to generate scenarios? The numbers 0 to 1024 in binary!
Then I picked out the combinations with >=5 characters, multiplied their chances accordingly and added the scenarios all up.
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Half of the Top Ten:
Likelihood: 99%
Want: 100% (with K. Rool or K. Rool/Ridley as part of the half), 25% (with Ridley as part of the half), 0% with neither
RTC Grade: A
Characters getting in that we don't rate highly or don't rate at all don't mean we were wrong, it just means those characters defied the long odds facing them. We were right on the nose with Mega Man and Little Mac, and will be right on the nose with all of the Gematsu characters in the months to come.
Nominate:
Brash the Friggin Bear (lol) x5
Likelihood: 99%
Want: 100% (with K. Rool or K. Rool/Ridley as part of the half), 25% (with Ridley as part of the half), 0% with neither
RTC Grade: A
Characters getting in that we don't rate highly or don't rate at all don't mean we were wrong, it just means those characters defied the long odds facing them. We were right on the nose with Mega Man and Little Mac, and will be right on the nose with all of the Gematsu characters in the months to come.
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Depressed Gengar
Hana Is Best Girl
Cheezey Bites
Slime Knight
Great post, but we clearly mark things differently... though I work in marketing and we are pretty notorious for our very definite views... it's probably for the best that I never become a teacher!
And yeah, I only know C and Assembler, and I'm very out of practice at them, so I opened up something I'm more comfortable working with; even if I don't use the mathematical functions all that often, and have never used modulus, I thought it would be a bit easier for me to do it that way, even if it's less efficient.
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Well I was figuring that beating the baseline of just predicting the cast from the previous game (plus the E3 cast, since the RTC game started after that) ought to be a passing grade. If you can't do better than that, you failed.
But I figured I should be realistic - nobody's gonna predict perfectly without insider knowledge, or just being a lucky guesser. So that's why I graded on more than just raw, mathematical accuracy.
So I gave credit for roster size expectations, if the top rated characters really were the most likely and if the rankings overall make sense. If GameFAQs had made their scores decline much more significantly outside of their top ten, they would've done well mathematically, and only had 3-5 out of 11-13 late revealed characters (depending on how you count PT) outside of their top ten... With a reasonable roster size and a non-zero prediction for Pokemon Trainer, they would've done pretty well.
But I figure it's also good to take into account how hard it was to predict something... Thing is, GameFAQs predicted an 80+ character roster. It should've been obvious to everyone that that was never going to happen. If they had predicted in the range 45-50 characters, it would've been understandable. Still wrong by a bit, but not total failure. They were so far off that I gave no credit at all (that was not a 59% F).
We're likely to be off, but I don't think we've made any mistakes THAT big.
But I figured I should be realistic - nobody's gonna predict perfectly without insider knowledge, or just being a lucky guesser. So that's why I graded on more than just raw, mathematical accuracy.
So I gave credit for roster size expectations, if the top rated characters really were the most likely and if the rankings overall make sense. If GameFAQs had made their scores decline much more significantly outside of their top ten, they would've done well mathematically, and only had 3-5 out of 11-13 late revealed characters (depending on how you count PT) outside of their top ten... With a reasonable roster size and a non-zero prediction for Pokemon Trainer, they would've done pretty well.
But I figure it's also good to take into account how hard it was to predict something... Thing is, GameFAQs predicted an 80+ character roster. It should've been obvious to everyone that that was never going to happen. If they had predicted in the range 45-50 characters, it would've been understandable. Still wrong by a bit, but not total failure. They were so far off that I gave no credit at all (that was not a 59% F).
We're likely to be off, but I don't think we've made any mistakes THAT big.
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Lets See...
I See Rids, Paletuna, Krool, Chrome, Mii, Pack Man, and Shulk getting in, so...
Half+ of RTC top 10: 99.99%
Want 99.99%
Our accuracy: Abstain.
I See Rids, Paletuna, Krool, Chrome, Mii, Pack Man, and Shulk getting in, so...
Half+ of RTC top 10: 99.99%
Want 99.99%
Our accuracy: Abstain.
colder_than_ice
Smash Lord
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Chance of RTC top 10 becomes playable, apparently 61.84%, thanks @
Cheezey Bites
Want: 80% - I'd like to see most of them playable.
Our grade is a C-
We rated Rosalina low and did not even take Greninja into consideration. We also rated Pokemon Trainer too high. Several characters in our top 25 have already been deconfirmed but we're yet to lose a character in the top 10. The only character we got right so far was the blatantly obvious one.
Cheezey Bites
Want: 80% - I'd like to see most of them playable.
Our grade is a C-
We rated Rosalina low and did not even take Greninja into consideration. We also rated Pokemon Trainer too high. Several characters in our top 25 have already been deconfirmed but we're yet to lose a character in the top 10. The only character we got right so far was the blatantly obvious one.
Glaciacott
Smash Lord
Half of our top 10 being correct
75%
I think we did a good job on most of those ratings, so I imagine we have a fair chance at getting half those characters
Grade of RTC: B-
Some of the ratings that started way off or with really clear outliers actually yielded really tolerable results, but it's not an A because I do believe a lot of ratings for many characters are way too optimistic.
75%
I think we did a good job on most of those ratings, so I imagine we have a fair chance at getting half those characters
Grade of RTC: B-
Some of the ratings that started way off or with really clear outliers actually yielded really tolerable results, but it's not an A because I do believe a lot of ratings for many characters are way too optimistic.
Burigu
Smash Ace
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Half of RTC top ten
Chance: 45% Just because Sakurai is so umpredectible, it's like he is for another dimention, Palutena and Pacman for me are the most accurate and more likely.
Want: 100% I want Palutena, Pacman, Ridley, Chrom and to a lesser extend Dixie
Grade: actually this is not so easy to me where I am from we don't use letters but numbers you know A+ = 10, A = 9 and so on I am not familiar with this system and because of that I can't accurately choose a grade, plus I have been here just a couple of months so I don't have enough info, in other words I will abstain for the first time.
Chance: 45% Just because Sakurai is so umpredectible, it's like he is for another dimention, Palutena and Pacman for me are the most accurate and more likely.
Want: 100% I want Palutena, Pacman, Ridley, Chrom and to a lesser extend Dixie
Grade: actually this is not so easy to me where I am from we don't use letters but numbers you know A+ = 10, A = 9 and so on I am not familiar with this system and because of that I can't accurately choose a grade, plus I have been here just a couple of months so I don't have enough info, in other words I will abstain for the first time.
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@
Cheezey Bites
and @
Erimir
I have the greatest respect for the both of you. You're both great at mathematics, and I appreciate you trying to help out the others with their scores, as well. Although I'll be abstaining from both of my scores today because I have never learned how to calculate scores like this, I hope to one day understand all of the concepts as well as you do. I'm just a senior coming out of high school right now, but in the fall I'll be taking my first statistics course and possibly my second calculus course as well; mathematics interest me, and I have every intention of returning to this thread one day and reflecting on the time when I was in the dark.
MY GRADE: C+
The Good:
-Little Mac was our most likely newcomer at the time of his confirmation
-I personally believe that our top ten right now is pretty accurate
The Bad:
-We're predicting a pretty impractical roster size
-We only gave Rosalina about a 16%
The Ugly:
-We never rated Greninja for anything other than satisfaction
Verdict: I believe we're the most accurate place on the internet, but we're definitely not infallible. We're still pretty biased in certain aspects, and we give scores that are too high to almost everyone. We're definitely passing, but I'm not quite sure I'd say we're proficient just yet.
Cheezey Bites
and @
Erimir
I have the greatest respect for the both of you. You're both great at mathematics, and I appreciate you trying to help out the others with their scores, as well. Although I'll be abstaining from both of my scores today because I have never learned how to calculate scores like this, I hope to one day understand all of the concepts as well as you do. I'm just a senior coming out of high school right now, but in the fall I'll be taking my first statistics course and possibly my second calculus course as well; mathematics interest me, and I have every intention of returning to this thread one day and reflecting on the time when I was in the dark.
I informed a friend of mine (an upcoming computer science major) the gist of the day's purpose and asked him to make me a calculator program. He said he could do it, but he wouldn't have a chance to give it to me until Tuesday at the earliest. Ah, well. Also, the program Cheezey made won't run on my computer. Pity.
Nah. It probably has motion controls.
MY GRADE: C+
The Good:
-Little Mac was our most likely newcomer at the time of his confirmation
-I personally believe that our top ten right now is pretty accurate
The Bad:
-We're predicting a pretty impractical roster size
-We only gave Rosalina about a 16%
The Ugly:
-We never rated Greninja for anything other than satisfaction
Verdict: I believe we're the most accurate place on the internet, but we're definitely not infallible. We're still pretty biased in certain aspects, and we give scores that are too high to almost everyone. We're definitely passing, but I'm not quite sure I'd say we're proficient just yet.
DAY OVER
CHOOO---CHOOO---CHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
CHOOO---CHOOO---CHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
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Half of the Top Ten
68.27% chance
68.14% want
A special shout out has to go towards @
Cheezey Bites
for helping everyone out today (and to @
Erimir
, too, for assisting). Even with his help, however, I think I may have messed up with the averaging; there were a lot of changed scores and stuff, and I might have goofed somewhere. If I didn't, people seem to think this is both likely and preferable. @lonekonwolf : this day's results were never intended to go into the results tab, and I think they should stay out for sure now.
Today we're doing something a bit less math-intensive and less RTC-focused. How satisfied are you with the game so far? You can take into account confirmed and deconfirmed characters, stages selection, item options, technical tidbits, information about online, and pretty much everything we know about this game thus far. However, please don't factor in things like characters we haven't seen yet--focus only on the stuff that we currently know or seems very likely. That said, please give a percentage of satisfaction for how the game as a whole is shaping up. In addition, I have to mention that E3 is in just 36 hours now; it's about time we discuss how hyped we are! Please give a percentage that states how much of you is hyped for E3. Some quick benchmarks: if you aren't excited at all and actually dread the event, give a 0%. If you are somewhat excited, but have an equal amount of apprehension and fear, give a 50%. If your body is totally ready for a great time (like mine!) give a 100%. What are you waiting for? Get rating!
Pre-E3 Schedule
Tuesday into Wednesday: Most Overrated, Most Underrated, and Most Accurate
Wednesday into Thursday: Most Hyping and Most Deflating Moments
Thursday into Friday: Three Favorite Days on RTC
Friday into Saturday: Top Five Most Likely and Top Five Most Wanted
Saturday into Sunday: 50% of Top Ten + Grade Our Predictions!
Sunday into Monday: Overall Satisfaction and E3 Hype Rating
Monday-Tuesday: Predictions and Confessions
68.27% chance
68.14% want
A special shout out has to go towards @
Cheezey Bites
for helping everyone out today (and to @
Erimir
, too, for assisting). Even with his help, however, I think I may have messed up with the averaging; there were a lot of changed scores and stuff, and I might have goofed somewhere. If I didn't, people seem to think this is both likely and preferable. @lonekonwolf : this day's results were never intended to go into the results tab, and I think they should stay out for sure now.Today we're doing something a bit less math-intensive and less RTC-focused. How satisfied are you with the game so far? You can take into account confirmed and deconfirmed characters, stages selection, item options, technical tidbits, information about online, and pretty much everything we know about this game thus far. However, please don't factor in things like characters we haven't seen yet--focus only on the stuff that we currently know or seems very likely. That said, please give a percentage of satisfaction for how the game as a whole is shaping up. In addition, I have to mention that E3 is in just 36 hours now; it's about time we discuss how hyped we are! Please give a percentage that states how much of you is hyped for E3. Some quick benchmarks: if you aren't excited at all and actually dread the event, give a 0%. If you are somewhat excited, but have an equal amount of apprehension and fear, give a 50%. If your body is totally ready for a great time (like mine!) give a 100%. What are you waiting for? Get rating!
Pre-E3 Schedule
Tuesday into Wednesday: Most Overrated, Most Underrated, and Most Accurate
Wednesday into Thursday: Most Hyping and Most Deflating Moments
Thursday into Friday: Three Favorite Days on RTC
Friday into Saturday: Top Five Most Likely and Top Five Most Wanted
Saturday into Sunday: 50% of Top Ten + Grade Our Predictions!
Sunday into Monday: Overall Satisfaction and E3 Hype Rating
Monday-Tuesday: Predictions and Confessions
Sorry if that comment came off as a bit... brash. He's the arrogant guy in the stadium in DKC3, isn't he? The idea of him in Smash was just so ludicrous that I broke out laughing when I saw him. I can just imagine the reveal trailer.
He's a supporting character from a single game from 1996 who showed up in a cameo role in a mid-00's game. He's literally the best, he's an intensely popular shoo-in character, and anyone who says otherwise deserves to have a tree dropped on them, courtesy of an angry tantrum.
Also, I talked about him multiple times on Smashboards and GameFAQs. That means, if he shows up at E3, you can flaunt that "everyone was guessing and talking about Brash the Bear" in whatever leak threads are active at the time. DKC3 sold well, so it's only logical that, with millions and bazillions of people making wishlists, Brash the Bear would show up eventually, you know.
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Don't ever change.He's a supporting character from a single game from 1996 who showed up in a cameo role in a mid-00's game. He's literally the best, he's an intensely popular shoo-in character, and anyone who says otherwise deserves to have a tree dropped on them, courtesy of an angry tantrum.
Also, I talked about him multiple times on Smashboards and GameFAQs. That means, if he shows up at E3, you can flaunt that "everyone was guessing and talking about Brash the Bear" in whatever leak threads are active at the time. DKC3 sold well, so it's only logical that, with millions and bazillions of people making wishlists, Brash the Bear would show up eventually, you know.
andimidna
Smash Master
[collapse=!!!!!!!!!!!!!]
[/collapse]
D
Deleted member
Guest
colder_than_ice
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jan 7, 2013
- Messages
- 1,331
Current SSB4 satisfaction: 80% - The new stages, characters and items all look great. Smash Run looks like one of the most fun modes ever to be in SSB. Move customization also looks interesting.
E3 Hype: 100% - I am so excited for E3! I'm looking forward to seeing:
Legend of Zelda Wii U
Pokemon Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire
X
Shim Megami X Fire Emblem
Professor Layton X Ace Attorney
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
Oh, and SSB4 of course!!!!
E3 Hype: 100% - I am so excited for E3! I'm looking forward to seeing:
Legend of Zelda Wii U
Pokemon Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire
X
Shim Megami X Fire Emblem
Professor Layton X Ace Attorney
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
Oh, and SSB4 of course!!!!
Plain Yogurt
Smash Ace
Current Game Satisfaction: 85% The extensive look at character changes we've had so far has me really excited to crack all the characters open both old and new and figure out what's what. I also really like the stage and item selections for the most part, with a minor gripe how many "crazy" stages we seem to have. I don't doubt we'll get some simpler ones though. Smash Run is wonderful, as it emulates one of my favorite time-wasters from the Gamecube era. I have faith for the online modes this time around, considering how well Mario Kart runs, and I like the idea behind For Glory and look forward to seeing how my record will stack up.
My deductions come from the fact that so far the game seems to lack a "hook," so to speak. I have no problems with buying the game "because it's Smash Bros." but I would like to see what makes these installments stand out besides an updated roster/technical mechanics. Melee introduced the Stadium Modes, Event Matches, and adventure mode. Brawl introduced the Final Smash, featured a full-length story mode complete with awesome cutscenes, and was the Smash's first foray into online play. What does Smash 4 offer that will make the average consumer who isn't so excited about gameplay/roster updates buy the game? Smash Run will be a cool mode to play with friends, but we need more. This, however...
E3 Hype: 100% ...is the reason I'm so ready for E3. Not only will we surely get more character, stage, and item confirmations, but seeing as the 3DS version will be launching within the next few months, we'll hopefully start having a better idea of just what we're getting when we buy Smash 3DS/Wii U. Sakurai love stuffing his games with content til they overflow, so I'm confident we'll be in for something crazy!
My deductions come from the fact that so far the game seems to lack a "hook," so to speak. I have no problems with buying the game "because it's Smash Bros." but I would like to see what makes these installments stand out besides an updated roster/technical mechanics. Melee introduced the Stadium Modes, Event Matches, and adventure mode. Brawl introduced the Final Smash, featured a full-length story mode complete with awesome cutscenes, and was the Smash's first foray into online play. What does Smash 4 offer that will make the average consumer who isn't so excited about gameplay/roster updates buy the game? Smash Run will be a cool mode to play with friends, but we need more. This, however...
E3 Hype: 100% ...is the reason I'm so ready for E3. Not only will we surely get more character, stage, and item confirmations, but seeing as the 3DS version will be launching within the next few months, we'll hopefully start having a better idea of just what we're getting when we buy Smash 3DS/Wii U. Sakurai love stuffing his games with content til they overflow, so I'm confident we'll be in for something crazy!
chronomantic
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Apr 1, 2014
- Messages
- 592
-Overall game satisfaction
80% - I absolutely love the new stages and the new items look like so much fun. The newcomers are great (though I haven't fallen in love so to speak with anybody yet). I still expect tons of new content.
E3 Hype
100% - are you kidding me. This could be bigger than the Direct in terms of brand new information and character reveal, also with the 3ds release date approaching I think they won't hold back. I want to be surprised with what they have in store for us!
80% - I absolutely love the new stages and the new items look like so much fun. The newcomers are great (though I haven't fallen in love so to speak with anybody yet). I still expect tons of new content.
E3 Hype
100% - are you kidding me. This could be bigger than the Direct in terms of brand new information and character reveal, also with the 3ds release date approaching I think they won't hold back. I want to be surprised with what they have in store for us!
D
Deleted member
Guest
Overall Satisfaction: 90%
+ So far, the character roster is looking better than I expected it to be...
-- ...though certain assist trophies (and Ridley, assuming he really is a stage hazard) could have been playable. Personally, I don't consider them ahuge major loss.
+ The speed of the game is in between Melee's and Brawl's. I'm fine with that.
+ No more random tripping, at least from what we've seen so far.
+ The game has two separate online modes: one for the super hardcore competitive players, and another for people who just want to have fun.
+ New mechanics are present, so Smash 4 doesn't feel like an expansion to Brawl.
+ I'm liking some of the stages.
-- The lack of a story mode.
All this game needs to completely satisfy me (in order from most to least important):
E3 Hype: 50%
NEVER be too hyped for anything, or else you could be disappointed.
+ So far, the character roster is looking better than I expected it to be...
-- ...though certain assist trophies (and Ridley, assuming he really is a stage hazard) could have been playable. Personally, I don't consider them a
+ The speed of the game is in between Melee's and Brawl's. I'm fine with that.
+ No more random tripping, at least from what we've seen so far.
+ The game has two separate online modes: one for the super hardcore competitive players, and another for people who just want to have fun.
+ New mechanics are present, so Smash 4 doesn't feel like an expansion to Brawl.
+ I'm liking some of the stages.
-- The lack of a story mode.
All this game needs to completely satisfy me (in order from most to least important):
- Online multiplayer with a superior netcode to Brawl's. I'm more of a local multiplayer fan, but what if a friend or family member isn't available?
- Shulk as a playable character.
- An adventure mode of some kind. The 3DS version has Smash Run, but what does the Wii U have?
E3 Hype: 50%
NEVER be too hyped for anything, or else you could be disappointed.
Kalimdori
Amateur Youtuber
-Overall game satisfaction
100% - I love Smash Bros, and as long as it's Smash Bros and I can play with my friends, I will always love it.
E3 Hype
100% - We will be getting a new character. ANY event where we might get a new character will be an instant 100% from me.
100% - I love Smash Bros, and as long as it's Smash Bros and I can play with my friends, I will always love it.
E3 Hype
100% - We will be getting a new character. ANY event where we might get a new character will be an instant 100% from me.
Satisfaction: 90%
I just wish that the Wii U version was coming out this summer too. :<
E3 Hype: 100%
The only thing that would wreck E3 for me is NPC Palutena and we're all pretty convinced that the idea is unoikely to happen. But even then, I've still got Rosalina who I'm very much looking forward to playing as, and I've got info on ORAS coming out too!
I just wish that the Wii U version was coming out this summer too. :<
E3 Hype: 100%
The only thing that would wreck E3 for me is NPC Palutena and we're all pretty convinced that the idea is unoikely to happen. But even then, I've still got Rosalina who I'm very much looking forward to playing as, and I've got info on ORAS coming out too!
Glaciacott
Smash Lord
Satisfaction
100%
I love everything we've seen so far. Want to use all the newcomers, veterans, the music is great, online seems fun, smash run seems great, the visuals are lovely, the little details are all over the place, the hype has been real, trolling, CGI videos, Mega Man, Pong ... just, too good.
Hype
100%
I was sold on E3 from the moment we saw the Fils-a-Mech video. And then they added the invitational and Gamecube Adapter. Nintendo already won E3 for me.
100%
I love everything we've seen so far. Want to use all the newcomers, veterans, the music is great, online seems fun, smash run seems great, the visuals are lovely, the little details are all over the place, the hype has been real, trolling, CGI videos, Mega Man, Pong ... just, too good.
Hype
100%
I was sold on E3 from the moment we saw the Fils-a-Mech video. And then they added the invitational and Gamecube Adapter. Nintendo already won E3 for me.
Hippopotasauce
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2013
- Messages
- 1,659
- NNID
- Hippopotasauce
Satisfaction: 80%
New series everywhere, most stages look outstanding, and all the newcomers appear unique and clever.
But we just don't know much about the game outside of the versus mode and Smash Run. I do hope there's a ton of minigame options like Brawl on both the 3DS and Wii U versions.
Hype: 98%
2% cut off because Mario Maker might be real.
Not that I don't want it, but I would have preferred it as a surprise. Surprises really are the best part of E3.
OTHERWISE THOUGH, MY HEART'S ABOUT TO EXPLODE SO LET'S KEEP THAT IN MIND
New series everywhere, most stages look outstanding, and all the newcomers appear unique and clever.
But we just don't know much about the game outside of the versus mode and Smash Run. I do hope there's a ton of minigame options like Brawl on both the 3DS and Wii U versions.
Hype: 98%
2% cut off because Mario Maker might be real.
Not that I don't want it, but I would have preferred it as a surprise. Surprises really are the best part of E3.
OTHERWISE THOUGH, MY HEART'S ABOUT TO EXPLODE SO LET'S KEEP THAT IN MIND
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NickerBocker
Smash Lord
Satisfaction: 90%
Its been pretty food so far. I have no complaints, and im excited to see any tidbit of information we will get in the future. The graphics look great, the music sounds good, the mechanics, stages, and characters are phenomenal. Of course, nothing is perfect, so a 90 fits.
E3 Hype: 100%
I have been counting down the days for the past 2 months. Smash is centre stage for Nintendos conference, and I am prepared for some serious info dump. Not only Smash, but a new Zelda is basically a guarantee, which is my favorite game series of all time. X info would be pretty sweet as well. Among surprise reveals, like a new Metroid, Starfox or F Zero. Also, Miyamotos new IP, whatever it ends up being. Sonic Boom looks pretty inyeresting interesting.
Not only am I excited for Nintendo games, I am really curious about titles coming out for their competition, like Destiny, Halo 5 or the next Bethesda title.
E3 is going to be a gongshow.
Its been pretty food so far. I have no complaints, and im excited to see any tidbit of information we will get in the future. The graphics look great, the music sounds good, the mechanics, stages, and characters are phenomenal. Of course, nothing is perfect, so a 90 fits.
E3 Hype: 100%
I have been counting down the days for the past 2 months. Smash is centre stage for Nintendos conference, and I am prepared for some serious info dump. Not only Smash, but a new Zelda is basically a guarantee, which is my favorite game series of all time. X info would be pretty sweet as well. Among surprise reveals, like a new Metroid, Starfox or F Zero. Also, Miyamotos new IP, whatever it ends up being. Sonic Boom looks pretty inyeresting interesting.
Not only am I excited for Nintendo games, I am really curious about titles coming out for their competition, like Destiny, Halo 5 or the next Bethesda title.
E3 is going to be a gongshow.
The Light Music Club
Smash Master
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2013
- Messages
- 3,225
- Location
- Knoxville, MD/Elizabethtown, PA
- NNID
- _TLMC_
- 3DS FC
- 0576-6097-0725
I'm the outlier here:
Satisfaction : 40% - New smash. Yeah!!! ... Just wish the roster was better. I can look at every newcomer and pick a character I'd much rather have:
Villager - Tom Nook or KK Slider
Megaman - Another 3rd Party (One in my sig)
Rosalina - Another Mario character (Paper Mario or Bowser Jr.)
Wii Fit Trainer - Duck Hunt Dog (Hardware rep)
Greninja - Many various other Pokemon
Little Mac - Various other characters (he doesn't have some one to really match up with I guess.)
Hype: 95% - 5% of me knows I'll be upset about the result.
Satisfaction : 40% - New smash. Yeah!!! ... Just wish the roster was better. I can look at every newcomer and pick a character I'd much rather have:
Villager - Tom Nook or KK Slider
Megaman - Another 3rd Party (One in my sig)
Rosalina - Another Mario character (Paper Mario or Bowser Jr.)
Wii Fit Trainer - Duck Hunt Dog (Hardware rep)
Greninja - Many various other Pokemon
Little Mac - Various other characters (he doesn't have some one to really match up with I guess.)
Hype: 95% - 5% of me knows I'll be upset about the result.
Morbi
Scavenger
Satisfaction: 35%
I am not going to fallaciously assert that I am pleased with the game as of current. Some of the decisions regarding the actual development of the game, or even the release date are detrimental. The game illuminates that there is very little in terms of innovation and the character roster as of current is extremely lackluster despite my enthusiasm for it. Certain aspects of the game were removed without a feasible explanation and Smash Run does not appeal to me. No doubt this will be my favorite Smash yet, but there are some problems. I hope I feel differently closer to launch.
Hype: 50%
I am not entirely hyped right now; however, this will change as we get closer and closer. I am excited for the reveals, I expect Ridley and Robin. So I am not as hype as the my fate rests on Ridley's shoulders and Robin has easily trumped some long-time favorite characters of mine.
I am not going to fallaciously assert that I am pleased with the game as of current. Some of the decisions regarding the actual development of the game, or even the release date are detrimental. The game illuminates that there is very little in terms of innovation and the character roster as of current is extremely lackluster despite my enthusiasm for it. Certain aspects of the game were removed without a feasible explanation and Smash Run does not appeal to me. No doubt this will be my favorite Smash yet, but there are some problems. I hope I feel differently closer to launch.
Hype: 50%
I am not entirely hyped right now; however, this will change as we get closer and closer. I am excited for the reveals, I expect Ridley and Robin. So I am not as hype as the my fate rests on Ridley's shoulders and Robin has easily trumped some long-time favorite characters of mine.
Cheezey Bites
Slime Knight
Satisfaction: 70%
(for contrast P:M is 95%)
The balance tweaks are there, but some of them sound pretty strange choices... That said P:M improves everyone, so I can't say it's not going to work, it's just kinda worrying. I don't have enough information to say it's going to work out, though I'm sure I'll have a much better idea very soon!
As for Roster, they've done some great character choices and done some of them really well, but I feel they've been a bit safe with some of the newcomers... particularly keeping F.L.U.D.D seemingly the same (I don't mind it being there, but it clearly needs a change in function to be useful). There're also some choices that just baffle me (Sun Salutation, Lloid Rocket and the Phantom looking Toon style), which without proper play style analysis seem pointless and break my suspension of disbelief somewhat (it's not like there weren't other options). I dunno, I guess I should trust Namco, so I'm keeping positive that it's all for a reason, but it's kinda difficult.
One thing I really like is how they seem to be filling out some of the gaps in the roster, like Megaman's full projectile game, Rosalina's Puppet Master playstyle, and Mac's Ground Control. It makes me excited for a potential summoner, and is just an all round good thing!
The online looks good (and MK8 makes me think it'l live up), and the 3DS frame rate stuff is amazing! The items look good, the ATs, and pokéballs are all nice, although a few are odd in execution (WHERE'S MY MOON!). Whatever happens I know I'm going to enjoy the game, but if it's going to be on Loyalty or game quality isn't yet known.
I don't know enough to give it really high at this stage, but I do feel it will go higher very very quickly.... I do feel that it won't beat P:M for me, but I'd love (and don't disregard the possibility) to be proven wrong!
E3 Hype: 60%
It's a scary time for a Dragon Quest fan, all the rumors and speculation have to pay off soon, and I'm worried. I'm also somewhat worried about a number of other things, but in all I think it's going to be amazing, and don't discount the possibility of this being one of the best E3s ever.
I'm fairly confident in Nintendo mind you, they seem to be getting things right, and I love the digital news anyway, but my worries stem from SE, and Sony not performing... I don't care for the PS4, but if Nintendo continues to have as little contest in Japan as it does right now, then I worry that it could mean a lot of complacency from Japanese developers... And since I'm most interested in Japanese developers that means bad news for me...
(for contrast P:M is 95%)
The balance tweaks are there, but some of them sound pretty strange choices... That said P:M improves everyone, so I can't say it's not going to work, it's just kinda worrying. I don't have enough information to say it's going to work out, though I'm sure I'll have a much better idea very soon!
As for Roster, they've done some great character choices and done some of them really well, but I feel they've been a bit safe with some of the newcomers... particularly keeping F.L.U.D.D seemingly the same (I don't mind it being there, but it clearly needs a change in function to be useful). There're also some choices that just baffle me (Sun Salutation, Lloid Rocket and the Phantom looking Toon style), which without proper play style analysis seem pointless and break my suspension of disbelief somewhat (it's not like there weren't other options). I dunno, I guess I should trust Namco, so I'm keeping positive that it's all for a reason, but it's kinda difficult.
One thing I really like is how they seem to be filling out some of the gaps in the roster, like Megaman's full projectile game, Rosalina's Puppet Master playstyle, and Mac's Ground Control. It makes me excited for a potential summoner, and is just an all round good thing!
The online looks good (and MK8 makes me think it'l live up), and the 3DS frame rate stuff is amazing! The items look good, the ATs, and pokéballs are all nice, although a few are odd in execution (WHERE'S MY MOON!). Whatever happens I know I'm going to enjoy the game, but if it's going to be on Loyalty or game quality isn't yet known.
I don't know enough to give it really high at this stage, but I do feel it will go higher very very quickly.... I do feel that it won't beat P:M for me, but I'd love (and don't disregard the possibility) to be proven wrong!
E3 Hype: 60%
It's a scary time for a Dragon Quest fan, all the rumors and speculation have to pay off soon, and I'm worried. I'm also somewhat worried about a number of other things, but in all I think it's going to be amazing, and don't discount the possibility of this being one of the best E3s ever.
I'm fairly confident in Nintendo mind you, they seem to be getting things right, and I love the digital news anyway, but my worries stem from SE, and Sony not performing... I don't care for the PS4, but if Nintendo continues to have as little contest in Japan as it does right now, then I worry that it could mean a lot of complacency from Japanese developers... And since I'm most interested in Japanese developers that means bad news for me...
- Status