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[Skyblade12]

Paper Mario Chance: 33% It's probably a competition between him, Bowser Jr, and Dr. Mario at this point, though I think Bowser Jr. Would get in before Paper Mario, mostly due to NSMB's merits.

Nominations:
X5 Playable Bosses

If you think another Mario character is guaranteed, that's true.

I don't think there's even a ten percent chance of getting another Mario character, though.

 

[Nonno Umby]

Paper Mario
Chance: 0%
Mario has already too much character (if you count his spin-off character, it reach 8 PC, and Wario is coming back). And if Paper Matio is a separate series, even Luigi's Mansion is, and even Mario & Luigi is, and even Pikachu series is (Hey you Pikachu, PokePark ecc.), and even Pokemon Dash is a separate series, and...
Want: 0%
Never seen his appeal.

Birdo
Both 0%
Seriously...what?!

 

[TechPowah]

Paper Mario as a playable Newcomer:
Chance: 24% - This day started before Paper Plains was revealed, so I won't factor the new stage in my rating, sorry. Anyway, the truth of the matter is we don't actually know if Paper Mario would count towards the Mainline Mario series (Mario, Luigi, Peach, Bowser) or as his own representation as a sub series (DK, Yoshi, Wario). That has an argument each for and against it with current info about the game; Arguing for Paper as a separate rep is that they've shown that elements can change what the icon/representation they hail from (Waluigi changing from Mario to Wario), while the Against example that we already have stage elements from sub-series (Mario Circuit as a Mario Kart stage, Glitzy Desert from Mario and Luigi as music) that still only have the Mario series crest rather than it's own. In this case, either way, I doubt Paper will get in without some good leeway.
Want: 100% - OH MY GOD, WE HAVE A PAPER MARIO STAGE AND IT'S FROM BOTH STICKER STAR AND 1K YEAR DOOR AND IT'S AMAZING AND PAPER'S MOVESET COULD HAVE ALL HIS FP MOVES AND BE DIFFERENT THAN MARIO AND WHY SAKURAI WHY MAKE THE 3DS STAGE USE ALL GAMES BECAUSE IT MAKES ME THINK IT'LL BE THE ONLY STAGE FROM PAPER AND MAKE ME DOUBT PAPER'S CHANCES THANKS TO IT BEING A 3DS STAGE INSTEAD OF A WII U STAGE AND...<More whining ensues>

Birdo (Mario) as a Playable Newcomer
Chance: 1% - Maybe, MAYBE, as a Yoshi character, but as previously stated Birdo would be more of a Mario character and there are definitely characters that would come first.
Want: 0% - Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?????????

Predictions:
Lucas as a Returning Vet: 36% Chance, 53% Want
Masked Dedede as King Dedede's New Final Smash: 47% Chance, 84% Want

Nominations:
<Woooooh, I finally won a prediction, double points for me! >
Interactive Eternal Darkness Representation: x10

 

[Bosspon]

Paper Mario:

Chance: 50%
I'm being very generous here because very few characters ever get only stages to appear in the game. Little Mac's boxing ring was announced before he appeared, Rosalina had a galaxy stage announced before she was revealed and I can't think of reasons to not include Paper Mario other than too many Mario reps. However, he represents his own franchise and possesses a crap ton of unique moves. He wouldn't be a clone. With his various partners, hammer and various hammer techniques, jumping techniques, paper transformations, items, and even stickers, I can't see how he could ever be made a clone and his series is long overdue for a rep.

Want: 100%
Sure, he's Mario, but he's PAPER MARIO. He could be the representative of the RPG Mario games that we've been needing. And I'm sure he'd be nothing short of an absolute blast to play as.

Birdo:

Chance: 0%
Why is he even being considered? Seriously. Birdo was only relevant in one game and hasn't really been relevant since. It's like when people ask for other random Mario characters. Birdo would have a unique moveset, but Birdo doesn't significantly represent a part of Nintendo's history.

Want: 0%
Never liked him. I'd be really angry if Birdo got in instead of a character that, well, deserved it and worked hard for it. Birdo has no relevance other than being a creepy Yoshi-monster with a disturbing tube for a mouth.

 

[Skyblade12]

Paper Mario would be the lightest character in the franchise, right? Taking over from the puffballs? How well would he endure Smash?

 

[Autumn ♫]

Paper Mario would be the lightest character in the franchise, right? Taking over from the puffballs? How well would he endure Smash?

Probably as well a Game and Watch, I would imagine.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Paper Mario Likelihood: 8%
Want: 55%

Birdo Likelihood: 0%
Want: 0%

Karate Joe x5

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

Paper Mario-

Double zeros. We don't need another Mario while there are still unrepresented franchises like Chibi Robo, Custom Robo, Golden Sun, Xenoblade, etc. There's no way around the fact that Paper Mario is, while he would not be a clone, just another Mario.

Birdo-
Also double zeros.

 

[Skyblade12]

Paper Mario-

Double zeros. We don't need another Mario while there are still unrepresented franchises like Chibi Robo, Custom Robo, Golden Sun, Xenoblade, etc. There's no way around the fact that Paper Mario is, while he would not be a clone, just another Mario.

Birdo-
Also double zeros.

Yep. This is the problem. Regardless of how unique and interesting he may be (I'd pick him over regular Mario any day), he's still just Mario.

Oh, hey, we can have Sports Mario too, because he'd play differently with all sorts of Olympics and Soccer based moves!

Why not Mario Kart Mario who uses Bikes and Karts for all his specials, with a Glider recovery?

Or Dr. Mario with pill based combat.


He plays differently, he is a unique character, but he's still Mario. I don't see getting another Mario over the tons of other characters that people want.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Paper Mario-30%
He'd definitely be a fun, unique addition, and could also help represent the Paper Mario franchise. He's also got the new stage, which helps him.

Want:50%
I wouldn't miss him if he wasn't in, but I would care too much if he was in either.

Birdo:
Double Zero's.

 

[Erimir]

Paper Mario

I almost want to give him a zero just to partially cancel out the people giving him 100%. A Paper Mario stage is not a Paper Mario confirmation! You have to admit there's a strong chance that Paper Mario will not be in the game despite getting a stage! Jesus Christ people. There is no reason to give him 100%, or even close to it. I mean, overreact and give him a 50%, whatever. But no, this is not like the Boxing Ring. That made a stage for an entirely new series, while Paper Mario is part of the Mario series just like Mario Kart.

This stage helps his chances, but not by that much, IMO. It's noteworthy that it's not based exclusively on Sticker Star. Although that could be justified with saving time the same way using the same Mega Man stage does... But the problems with Paper Mario are still there. He's still another version of Mario and the Mario series still seems unlikely to get another rep. And even if it did, I think Bowser Jr would be more likely. Then we'd have two Mario Bros, two princesses, and two Koopas.

Paper Mario chances: 6%
Paper Mario want: 45%
I'd rather see other characters, but he'd be kinda cool.

Birdo

She has a pretty good chance as an assist trophy, unless Mushroom Kingdom II is a returning stage. She's not important enough to get the full newcomer treatment. So her best chance to be playable is to be a clone of Yoshi. Which is not much chance.

Birdo chances: 0.1%
Birdo want: 20%
Not so much. I would like to see her as an AT though.

Predictions:
Lucas (from The Wizard) - 0.2%
Masked Dedede FS - 58%
I dunno much about this. Seems possible. The Bandana Dee crowd are going to vote it up for sure though, so I should guess high.

Nominations:
Brash the Bear x5

Despite this, Waluigi is at least associated with Wario in the games he appears in. He first showed up as one of Wario's partners.

Birdo has no connection to Yoshi at all.

Birdo was Yoshi's default partner in Double Dash, Mario Tennis and Mario Party 7. She usually has some connection to Yoshi in other sports games she appears in (such as good chemistry).

Not that this would mean that she would make sense as a "Yoshi newcomer", but it's not true that she has no connection to Yoshi.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Paper Mario

I almost want to give him a zero just to partially cancel out the people giving him 100%. A Paper Mario stage is not a Paper Mario confirmation! You have to admit there's a strong chance that Paper Mario will not be in the game despite getting a stage! Jesus Christ people. There is no reason to give him 100%, or even close to it. I mean, overreact and give him a 50%, whatever. But no, this is not like the Boxing Ring. That made a stage for an entirely new series, while Paper Mario is part of the Mario series just like Mario Kart.

This stage helps his chances, but not by that much, IMO. It's noteworthy that it's not based exclusively on Sticker Star. Although that could be justified with saving time the same way using the same Mega Man stage does... But the problems with Paper Mario are still there. He's still another version of Mario and the Mario series still seems unlikely to get another rep. And even if it did, I think Bowser Jr would be more likely. Then we'd have two Mario Bros, two princesses, and two Koopas.

Paper Mario chances: 6%
Paper Mario want: 45%
I'd rather see other characters, but he'd be kinda cool.

Birdo

She has a pretty good chance as an assist trophy, unless Mushroom Kingdom II is a returning stage. She's not important enough to get the full newcomer treatment. So her best chance to be playable is to be a clone of Yoshi. Which is not much chance.

Birdo chances: 0.1%
Birdo want: 20%
Not so much. I would like to see her as an AT though.

Predictions:
Lucas (from The Wizard) - 0.2%
Masked Dedede FS - 58%
I dunno much about this. Seems possible. The Bandana Dee crowd are going to vote it up for sure though, so I should guess high.

Nominations:
Brash the Bear x5

Birdo was Yoshi's default partner in Double Dash, Mario Tennis and Mario Party 7. She usually has some connection to Yoshi in other sports games she appears in (such as good chemistry).

Not that this would mean that she would make sense as a "Yoshi newcomer", but it's not true that she has no connection to Yoshi.

Ugh this pisses me off. I'll never give a character a 100%, and something like this means nothing. In fact, frankly, I'd count this as a disconfirmation for Paper Mario, because if anything Paper Mario should get a stage on both versions... but this stage transforms into areas from other games, at least Thousand Year Door. I don't see Paper Mario being playable at all right now.

 

[Burigu]

Well apparently some people here don't remember the hard leason Takamaru gave us yesterday, going around with crazy chances, I mean it is posible but well a stage is far from confirming a character. Remeber Brawl times?
Smashville and no character
DS stage no character
That "musical" Hanebow stage no character

So I will not increase my score for this alone certainly it helps, but far from a guarantee.
Learn from the past people learn from the past, Takamaru is still fresh

Paper Mario
Chance: 12%
Want: 45% Only if he incorpore the main aspects of TYD, that game is without doubt the best game in the series while SS is the worst.

Birdo
Chance: 0% Even minor than Daisy and that is hard to find at least for slot filler characters
Want: 0% Far from interesting addition, and no I will never consider Birdo as a Yoshi character unless it appears in a Yoshi game so her getting in as a Yoshi character is totally wrong. I would support the babies, Kamek, Raphael, Shy Guy, Bandit, baby Bowser, Tap Tap and even the freaking Stork before this.


Prediction
Lucas: 0.34%
Masked Dedede: 34.8% Not really sure about Dedede getting a new final smash


Nominations
Amazon Pandora x 5

 

[Ryan.]

Paper Mario
Chance: 50% I think it's a possibility, although I don't thin the stage today means anything.
Want: 0% Sorry. :/

Birdo
Chance: 5% I don't think this would happen.
Want: 0% Maybe as an alt costume, but as a character, no.

 

[UnicornDemon]

Paper Mario
Chance- 55%, Yup. He's got a pretty good shot at getting in. For starters, the main trend apparent amongst newcomers (apart from Pac-Man and Mega-Man) is that they all appeared on a successful title for either the Wii or DS. Paper Mario has one on each. The newcomers (for the most part) also have a very unique, identifying feature characterizing their moveset. Paper Mario has endless possibilities for this: partners, badges, stylish moves, etc. Finally, each newcomer has obvi had a stage from their franchise. Oh, what's this? Pic of the day is a Paper Mario stage? Huh, that's something. I usually tend to rate conservatively, but I really think Paper Mario is a bit more likely than not at this point.

Want- 100%, Paper Mario: TTYD is potentially my favorite video game of all time. Personal bias aside, the possibilities for this character are absolutely endless and I'd be thrilled to see what they do with him. I also would like to see the Paper Mario series return to its former glory as its been 10 years now since the masterpiece that is Thousand Year Door was released and I am dying for a Paper Mario game of the same quality and play-style to be made.

Birdo
Chance- 0.5%
Want- 75%, Yeah, I like Birdo. I usually played as him in Mario Kart Double Dash/Wii just for ****s and giggles. Honestly, the only Mario characters I like more are Yoshi (confirmed) and random Paper Mario characters like Vivian or Doopliss. Besides, trans representation in Smash is unacceptably low.

Lucas- 0.03%
Masked Dedede- 45%

Nomz:
The Theater/Battle Stage from Paper Mario: TTYD as a playable stage x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Paper Mario

Chance - 1.75% - OK, that stage was unexpected. I think it might give him a small boost, but overall I think it means little.

Want - 40% - Yeah, he could be unique, but he just doesn't interest me.


Birdo

Chance - 0% - Can you think of a good reason for him to be in? She's just plain unnecessary, even having competition for the Yoshi slot.

Want - 0% - Sorry, whatever gender Birdo is, but you're just not plain welcome here.


Predictions

Lucas - 0.09% - At least someone would give him something.

Masked Dedede Final Smash - 52.77% - I can see this going very well.


Nominations

"In The Space Pirate Ship" X5

 

[BADGRAPHICS]

Paper Mario chance: 10%
This is a little better after today's update, but still kinda slim. I feel like he exists in a bracket of characters that are probably considered during pre-production but never implemented. He's a character that I think is warranted, as he represents a so-far unrepresented sub-franchise, but I don't think he's ever going to see the light of day.

Paper Mario want: 75%
I'd love to see Paper Mario, but not when so many other franchises go completely unrepresented. He's in my most wanted list, but not near the top. Maybe 9th or 10th.

Birdo chance: 1%
Pretty slim. As important Mario characters go, she's somewhere above Shy-Guy and below Waluigi. Not likely. However, for an Assist Trophy, or especially a stage hazard, I think there's a 50% of that happening.

Birdo want: 1%
There are scores of characters I would put in before Birdo, she just isn't important or interesting. All of her attacks (with the exception of egg launching) would have to be made from scratch, and I'm just not a fan of that happening too often. However, she would be pretty funny, so that earns her 1%.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Paper Mario
Chance- 12%
The stage obviously helps him, but it's far from a confirmation.
Want- 20%
He could actually be quite fun to play as, but it's still another Mario.

Birdo
Chance- 0%
Nope.
Want- 0%
Nope.

 

[Mr. Johan]

Paper Mario

Chance - 45%
Quite possibly the most popular Mario subseries after Mario Kart. Though it is still Mario, the Paper Mario series is a completely different universe with its own self-contained lore, similar to the Donkey Kong Country series. PM, like SMRPG before it, represents a kind of platformer-RPG hybrid that helped make RPGs so accessible and user-friendly to the masses, at least from my perspective and experience. If Hal and Namco are looking for an additional Mario series character, the paper-thin hero is among the front of the pack in terms of significance and unique quirks.

The low-ish score is primarily due to the lack of PM material in Brawl, after the megaton hit TTYD critically was, with SPM trailing not far behind. If those two games weren't enough to warrant a spot for PM then, I dunno if Sticker Star was enough to get him in now, despite the financial success it was. The stage today shows that "Hey, we're flirting with the idea.", but it's not an ironclad confirmation.

Want - 95%
I do have bias for this little guy though. He was my second-most wanted newcomer after Robin. Badges, Stylish Moves, Paper Abilities, Partners, Pixls, Stickers, Paperification, the guy's had something new thrown into his repertoire with each installment and he's used them well. PM wouldn't have to take material from just one game, he'd be able to take material from all of them equally and go nuts everywhere, including the stage that seems to follow in his footsteps and take a little from everything as well. Jack-of-all-trades, master of them all as well.

 

[TerminalMontage]

Paper Mario Want: 0%
Paper Mario Chance: 10%

He has a level now, anything is possible, although he is another Mario, so I think it's unlikely.

Birdo Want: 0%
Birdo Chance: 0%

Birdo was a boss in a few games, but he/she is in the same league as Waluigi in my book.


Edit: I see other people posting predictions too so..
Masked Dedede Want: 50% sure why not
Masked Dedede Chance: 50% as a skin though-

Geno Want: 100%
Geno Chance: 35%

K. Rool Want: 100%
K. Rool Chance: 75% no NEW DK stages have been revealed so far, they could very well be Gangplank Galleon or the Flying Krock, which would make K. Rool seem obvious.. Maybe they're waiting until after they reveal him?

 

[SpaceJell0]

Paper Mario Chance: 45% He has a better chance than smaller characters but not as big a chance as I would hope
Paper Mario Want: 100% PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE MR. SAKURAI

Birdo: Double 0s: wat why?

 

[Princess Toady]

Paper Mario :
Chance : 1% I'm just not seeing it.
Want : 0% I prefer the normal Mario.

Birdo :
Chance : 0% Unfortunately.
Want : 100% Yes ! Yes ! Yes ! Birdo is one of my favorite Mario characters, and as such she's also one of my favorite characters in the video game worlds.

 

[ミスティック Speed]

Birdo
Chance: 0%
Want: 4% ...I don't want....but I suppose it could give Yoshi a second representation...?

Paper Mario
Chance: 45% ...for the first time ever, Sakurai has put something regarding the series into the game, and it's a unique an changing stage...? This could mean something.
Want: 45% Eh....I did like Dr. Mario, so another Mario can't be that bad. Plus, it gives us 6 Mario reps....and that means Pokemon will be more likely to have 6 as well...
Higher Chance for Mewtwo=happiness.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Paper Mario
Chance: 26% - I've long felt that he was one of the most underrated characters on this board. He's popular, easy to animate, and has tons of potential to be unique. I'd be surprised if Sakurai doesn't at least consider him.
Want: 15% - Regardless I'm not the biggest fan.

Birdo
Chance: 1% - I actually think she has a chance, just not a good one.
Want: 65% - Because SSB4 needs more flare.

Predictions
Lucas the Wizard: 0%
Masked Dededee: 29%

Nominations: Rundas x5

 

[Kapus]

Paper Mario

Chance: 5%. I really don't see the Mario series getting 2 new comers this installment, especially since it already had 4. In addition to that, Sakurai seems to be putting more focus towards unrepresented series and interesting characters. Paper Mario may have a little something going with moveset potential, but he's still just another Mario. I don't believe the Paper Mario series even needs to be represented with a playable character. The Mario spinoffs being represented through stages, songs and trophies seems fine and appropriate to me.

Want: 10% I wouldn't really be upset if he were to get in, but I'm really not interested.

Birdo

Chance: I literally posted here just so I could laugh at whoever nominated Birdo.

Want: I literally posted here just so I could laugh at whoever nominated Birdo.

 

[AustarusIV]

Paper Mario

Chance: 25%
I'll give him a somewhat reasonable chance at getting in, even though by this point I don't think we're getting another Mario newcomer. The new stage seems to have helped him somewhat

Want: 95%
Yes! His games were part of my childhood.

Birdo

Chance: 1%
Lol no.

Want: 0%
Lol no thanks.

 

[colder_than_ice]

-DIxie's want score is outdated. She should be after Isaac

Thank you for pointing that out. I must have skipped over Dixie's day by mistake.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Paper Mario: 10% He has a stage, so maybe it could happen. (Also, perfect day to rate him).
Want: 5%

Birdo: 0%
Want: 0%

Lucas: 0.03%
Masked Dedede Final Smash: 62.39%

x5 Moo Moo Meadows Music

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Paper Mario
Chance: 10% - If anything, a stage revealed now only hurts him
Want: 100%

Birdo
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

 

[DaUsername]

Paper Mario
Chance: 10% - He has a stage now, but that doesn't really mean much.
Want: 50% - It depends on whether he ends up being a clone or is actually unique.

Birdo
Chance: .01% - No.
Want: 0% - Ew.

Predictions
Lucas: 0%
Masked Dedede FS: 56%

 

[The Light Music Club]

Paper Mario
Chance: 10% - If anything, a stage revealed now only hurts him
Want: 100%

Birdo
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Why? Rosalina, Little Mac, Greninja, Palutena, Robin, and Lucina, all had their stages revealed before they were revealed.

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Why? Rosalina, Little Mac, Greninja, Palutena, Robin, and Lucina, all had their stages revealed before they were revealed.

Palutena's was Kid Icarus' stage, not hers. Greninja ws Pokémon's, not his. Rosalina's was a Mario stage, not hers. The same goes for Robin and Lucina. Little Mac's stage, on the other hand, wasn't announced as a Punch-Out stage, as Sakurai tried to cover it by putting a Smash Logo in there.
Of course, that doesn't mean he will be playable as a Mario character and this stage is seen as a Mario stage, but that's unlikely. That would almost the same as revealing Megaman's or Pac-man's stage before revealing them

 

[The Light Music Club]

Palutena's was Kid Icarus' stage, not hers. Greninja ws Pokémon's, not his. Rosalina's was a Mario stage, not hers. The same goes for Robin and Lucina. Little Mac's stage, on the other hand, wasn't announced as a Punch-Out stage, as Sakurai tried to cover it by putting a Smash Logo in there.
Of course, that doesn't mean he will be playable as a Mario character and this stage is seen as a Mario stage, but that's unlikely. That would almost the same as revealing Megaman's or Pac-man's stage before revealing them

I disagree.
Greninja's stage is from Gen 6, his gen.
Rosalina's stage is from Mario Galaxy, a game she's a main character in.
Robin and Lucina's stage is from Awakening, the game they are from, and Marth and Ike aren't.

 

[ZecaOMestre]

I disagree.
Greninja's stage is from Gen 6, his gen.
Rosalina's stage is from Mario Galaxy, a game she's a main character in.
Robin and Lucina's stage is from Awakening, the game they are from, and Marth and Ike aren't.

Olimar's stage is from Pikmin 3, a game in which Olimar is not the main character
Kid Icarus' stage in the 3DS is from a part of the game which is mostly about Viridi

Believing Paper Mario chances have increased due to te stage is the same as believing we're getting Alph, Viridi or an original Pilotwings pilot due to their stages. Sakurai didn't show us Wii Fit Studio, Willy's Castle, Pac-Land before announcing newcomers. Nor has he revealed Windy Hill, Coliseum or Garden of Hope before revealing the veterans to whom those stages "belonged"

 

[The Light Music Club]

Olimar's stage is from Pikmin 3, a game in which Olimar is not the main character
Kid Icarus' stage in the 3DS is from a part of the game which is mostly about Viridi

Believing Paper Mario chances have increased due to te stage is the same as believing we're getting Alph, Viridi or an original Pilotwings pilot due to their stages. Sakurai didn't show us Wii Fit Studio, Willy's Castle, Pac-Land before announcing newcomers. Nor has he revealed Windy Hill, Coliseum or Garden of Hope before revealing the veterans to whom those stages "belonged"

I see where you are coming from, just in my opinion. I just fins Paper Mario to have a decent chance in the first place, and other characters that were hinted made sense to be playable. Palutena, Rosalina, Gen 6 Pokemon, and Little Mac kind of made sense. A 2nd Pikmin character, and Pilot Wings character don't seem very likely at all. Plus, the Pikmin one being revealed after mad sense, since it was obvious Olimar would be the only Pikmin character. Plus, Olimar's still in the game his stage is from, Marth is only DLC in Awakening so an Awakening character made sense.

Plus, Viridi was already deconfirmed.

 

[Groose]

Update tomorrow afternoon. We need to get back to those afternoon/early evening updates.

 

[loganhogan]

Paper Mario
Chance: 30%
Want: 20%

I can see this guy as a lighter version like what Toon Link is to Link, but not as a costume. He's either all in as a character, dr mario looks better as the costume anyway. Paper Mario could also be very unique if they wanted to make him. I wouldn't want Mario twice I'd prefer giving his paper series some love via stickers and trophies.

Birdo
Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

Birdo would be the most unexpected Mario character, I think. I believe Bowser Jr would be the next in line, but Birdo is no outsider. Birdo is sort of like Bowser Jr because both get more roles than just spin offs but Birdo usually gets minor villain roles. I think an assist trophy is more likely for her.

X5 John Raimi

 

[YoshiandToad]

Despite this, Waluigi is at least associated with Wario in the games he appears in. He first showed up as one of Wario's partners.

Birdo has no connection to Yoshi at all.

Spoiler

None at all.

 

[Swift Fox]

Paper Mario

Chance: 35%
Want: 50%

I think the stage helped him quite a bit if it's not gonna be the same case with Animal Crossing stage and Villager in Brawl. Unlike Villager, Sakurai didn't thought Villager had moveset potential so he's pretty much safe.

You can't really compare Paper Mario with Viridi because the popularity wise proved otherwise.

 

[andimidna]

I saw someone say on Ridleys day that Sakurai doesn't like false hype. Maybe that's why Takamaru was deconfirmed immediately after his game announcement?
Might be a good sign for Ridley....

Oh and why are people arguing that this should be taken as a Paper Mario confirmation when nobody has seriously ranked him at 100%? Or did someone? I'd have to disagree with anybody that says it doesn't even help his chances just because of a few stages with no character in brawl. The amount of stages with characters was by far more than stages without characters. His chances were raised, however slightly.