Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Pacack]

Spectator Mode:

Chance: 75%
I would imagine that this was revamped rather than outright removed.

Want: 80%
I liked it and would like to see an improvement.


Competitively Overpowered Character:

Chance: 20%

We've had Pikachu in 64 and Meta Knight in Brawl that could be considered "broken" characters (they have tiers all to themselves). In Melee, while there were characters that were significantly better than the rest of the cast, those characters compete well with one-another (According to Mew2King, Falco to Luigi on his tier list are the 11 characters that at least kind of matter in competitive play.)

I think it's more likely that we'll get a Melee-esque game tier-wise because of Namco Bandai helping. They have history with fighting games and are good enough at balancing that the supposed "worst character" in Soul Calibur (V, I think?) once won EVO (or something of that nature). The balance, however, is not necessarily up to only Namco Bandai. The 20% chance of a broken character is there because of the real possibility that Sakurai will again focus on balancing the game largely on his own. As much as I love the man, he is better at representing characters through their movesets than he is at actually balancing said movesets.

Want: 0%
Games are more fun with more balance. The more top tiers there are, the more diversity there is in matches. Of course I don't want a broken character.


Plusle and Minun:

Chance: 1.5%
I don't think they were planned in the first place, and I think Rosalina's playstyle came from them if they actually were. Regardless, they are a decently popular pair of Pokemon that could be an Ice Climbers-esque Pikachu semi-clone.

Want: 40%
I like them both, but there are other Pokemon I'd rather see before them.


Predictions:
Pac-Man will be revealed at E3 and it will be glorious.

 

[Sid-cada]

Spectator Mode

Chance - 80% - Possible, should be relatively simple, and no particualar reason not to implement. The only reason I'm not giving it higher is if they can't think of a reason to keep it, or if they descide to focus on other things.

Want - 50% - Don't care.


OP Charater

Chance - 35% - For reference, I will consider a charater Overpowered if they revive there own tier. While I don't think it's all that likely, I do conider it a disinct posibility.

Want - 0% - Who does want this?


Plusle and Minun

Chance - 0% - Nah, they're not going to put a strange one when we still have Jigglypuff and Metwo to consider.

Want - 30% - Eh. Would rather have a more conventional Pokemon roster.

 

[Zwzchow]

Spectator Mode
Chance: 90%
Seeing as how Nintendo has stuff like MKTV out I see no reason for this to be put in
Want: Abstain (Never played WiFi battles for Brawl :X)

Competitively OP character
Chance: 50%
At least one character will slip through the cracks and become broken
Want: 0.1% heck no

Plusle and Minun
Chance: 10% (Only for being the forbidden 7)
Want: 5%
As much as being a pikachu+Ice climber combo...NO!

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Spectator Mode:
Chance: 95% - Most likely.
Want: 5% Meh I don't really give a damn. If I'm not playing, IDC

Comp. OP Character"
Chance: 45% - depends on Sakurai's balancing.
Want: 0% No

Plusle & Minun:
Chance: 1% Because POSSIBLY part of Forbidden 7.
Want: 0% No thanks.


No noms? @ Groose you evil *******

Is E3 already coming? I'll be.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Spectator Mode: 99% OR 20%

It depends if you're talking about any spectator mode or the one from Brawl, if the former we'll almost certainly get to watch live online games, maybe even when it's one console for tournaments (they are clearly catering more to us now), and we're most likely getting a SmashTV style system where we can upload matches to Miiverse too!
If you're talking about the same functionality as Brawl then that's very unlikely! Why? The same reason the Game Corner's no longer in Pokémon... it's dumb, but betting on matches is virtual gambling, even if the coins aren't real, and the EU would increase the game's rating very quickly... I doubt Ninty will see it as worth it, and I share similar worries about DQX's casino...

Want: 100%
I want it back, especially for tourneys! Especially if we actually can bet virtual moneys on the winner!


OP character: 2.5%

It really depends on what you consider overpowered, but for me it's any character with no (or next to no in large casts) counter pick that has either a strong or neutral match-up. Pikachu in US 64 is an example of this (though in JPN Falcon was favorable even if otherwise Pika's considered to have stronger match-ups). Fox is not OP, he's simply top tier, 3 neutral match-ups shows that he's definitely the most powerful, but not so much as to make the others practically superfluous. Metaknight has one neutral in a large cast.

So, with that out the way why do I think no-one will fit this criteria this time? Partially Namco's help in balancing, partially the potential patching, but also the variety of the characters this time! I mean, Rosaluma, Megaman and Little Mac are all so different in play-style it's hard to imagine anyone having tools to have positive match-ups against all of them.. not to say there won't be a top tier character, there will! Even turn based games like Pokémon have a clear top tier (Mega-Mewtwo is OP to be fair, but even in BW we had Arceus,Kyogre and Kyurem-W), so a fast paced game like Smash doesn't have a chance of getting perfect balance! But aslong as there's a variety of characters who can play decently well, like P:M, then there's no problem.

Want: 15%
It can be patched out so it's no be all end all, but I only want it to have a laugh as Namco Bandai, which isn't a big deal.


Pra_Mai: 0.5%

They were only forbidden 7 to save Pichu, and he's already gone with no-one really caring, so no need to save him anymore!

Want: 10%
They don't deserve it, but it'd be kinda nice to see I guess. I'd prefer Pichu bros though.

 

[FalKoopa]

Spectator Mode: 80%
It was a feature in Brawl, and with the efforts being made to have an improved online, I think it will definitely return.

Want: 60%
Well, I hardly ever used online.. so I don't care as much.

Competitively Broken Character: 50%
With Namco Bandai doing the balancing, I doubt there will be MK situation again. Though there is a fair chance of an above average character.

Want: 0%
Hell no.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Spectator Mode
Chance: 70% - There's no real good reason to cut it.
Want: 50% - I could not possibly care less.

Broken character
Chance: 60% - I think it's slightly more likely than not, there's going to be 45+ characters to work with after all. Having Namco helps, but SSB is a lot different than the more traditional fighting games that they've made.
Want: 0% - This may just set an all-time low for wanted concepts.

Plusle and Minun
Chance: 7% - They may have been considered before but they're long past their peak. Still the Ruby and Sapphire remake helps them a little.
Want: 57% - I'll happily lend my support.

This is going to be a very long week.

 

[andimidna]

Spectator Mode-
Chance: 96%

Not only is it one of Brawl's features with no reason to be cut, but is also in Mario Kart 8, so maybe that means something too? It's not like there was any doubt the Wii U could handle it. I guess it's hard to justify a score for something like this. Yea, it will probably come back, because it will.

Want: Meh%

Abstaining here because I have no reason to care.

OP character:
Chance: 9%
I actually do not expect another Meta Knight. Better balancing has been done before, and Meta Knight happening was probably due to Brawl's scattered development, right?
Maybe.
But balancing seems like a more prominent focus than previous games.
And... once again, not much I can use to prove this.

Want: 0%


Plusle and Minun:
Chance: 1%
-The remakes don't do much for them specifically... yet.
-Apparently the Forbidden 7 is actually 6 and they were never invited
-There are newer and older Pikachus to choose from (but at least they're beating Pachirisu)
-Wouldn't be all that unique or appealing-- so it wouldn't be helping the remakes much. Ok, maybe getting some to know about them, but I doubt they could spark any interest that would result in better sales and whatever their goal might be.

I do think that a full percent is deserved though. Sakurai could end up wanting to beef up the roster again like Melee, and a Pikachu semi-clone with IC gameplay would be an easy pick. Plus Hoenn.

Want: 35%
No hate. Just, well... there are better options.

 

[Backgammon]

Spectator Mode
Chance - 90+%
It'd be a really nice little feature and well within the specs of the Wii U. Plus, Mashyhero Seikoorai said himself that when Brawl was online, they were largely limited by the tech and they are nowhere near as much now.

Want - 100%
What better way is there to learn my characters than to watch other people play them?

Competitively OP Character

Chance - 50%
Not gonna lie, there's going to be something that slips through the cracks. I just hope it won't turn out to be the new Meta Knight. The Brawl tier list was basically written around that little ball of OP. However, I feel that after about a year(?) some amazing new tech will be found with someone like Wii Fit Trainer and they'll jump up to 1st.

Want - 0%
Is it possible to go negative?

 

[Burigu]

Spectator Mode
Chance: 20%
Since Mario Kart TV is a thing and we got those images of Wire Frame Mac fighting Bowser in an angle never seen in the series before, I bet we will get Smash TV too, so this mode is not that necesary anymore.

Want: 10%
My Smash wi fi always sucked even for Spectator Mode, I am sure the next games are going to be way better, but I prefer to fight than to watch

Competitively OP Character
Chance: 46%
This might happen, but since Namco is testing and balancing the characters, the risks are fewer.
I want to point out that since they are working on balancing the characters we might not get CHARACTER DLC, why spend so much time testing the characters, when the rushed characters for DLC might not be that balanced, just and speculation but posible.

Want: 0%
Nothing more to add

Plusle and Minun ( I always say them the other way around, sounds better)
Chance: 0%
We all know the story there is this Brawl file that in japanise might hint them but nothing more, even if the file refered to them they were cut, no reason to bring them up even with the remakes.

Want: 0%
MMmmmmm no

Nominations........ o wait they are on hold we were so close Bandit!

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Spectator Mode Chance: 75%
MarioKart TV. Angles behind Mac fighting Bowser. Enough said.

Spectator Mode Want: 80%
I'd love to see matches in a unique perspective. It'd be cool.


OP Character Chance: 10%
It seems that Sakurai and Namco are really focusing on balancing, but there is still that small chance.

OP Want: 0%
No. Why would anyone want this.


Prai & Mai Chance: 25%
Iconic 3rd Gen Pokémon + 3rd Gen Remakes + (Sceptile + Lack of Grass Starter) = OK Chances.

Plusle and Minun Want: 60%
I like it. Nuff' said.

 

[Groose]

Plusle and Minun ( I always say them the other way around, sounds better)

Hmm. The anime always called them "Plusle and Minun," and a big part of my PokeIdentity is the anime. I'm afraid that's one thing I just can't change.

Spectator Mode: 66% chance and 100% want
There's no definitive evidence that points to a spectator type mode that I know of, but the whole comparison to Mario Kart TV that you all brought up sounds good to me. I'm also skeptical that Sakurai will want to cut many things from Brawl, but I suppose time constraints could play a hand.

I really, really want Spectator Mode back. I can't count how many times my friends and I would turn it on. We'd place bets among ourselves, and it was quite a blast. It was a shame to see the old one go, but I did give it a sendoff.

Competitively OP Character: 50% chance and Abstain from Want
I could really see it go either way. We could get a Melee situation, where Fox is the best but not incredibly overpowered, or we could get a Brawl situation, where Meta Knight is in ban-territory. I personally believe it was intentional to make Meta Knight so overpowered, but I do believe Sakurai is listening just a bit more to the competitive community, so I doubt he would do something like that on purpose now; it would have to be an accident.

As for want, it all comes down to how overpowered the character is. If they're on Meta Knight's level, I'd hate it. I don't want to see the community divided again because of another character that sparks a lot of debate about banning. However, if the overpowered character were extremely overpowered, and by that I mean he'd basically receive a Day-One permban, I wouldn't be against that at all. An incredibly overpowered character could add a bit of character to the franchise if done right; the key would be to make it so that no one in their right mind would even question allowing him or her into competitive play. Something like that would actually be pretty awesome in my eyes.

Plusle and Minun: 5% chance and 0% want
They were in Brawl's data, possibly. But a lot has changed. Even if we get a third-gen character, I'd expect GameFreak would ask for one whose popularity has held up better over the years; also, I doubt Sakurai will push for a duo-character like them because it means a lot of work in an area they experienced difficulties in.

As for want, I have no place for them in my heart.

DAY OVER

HYPE TRAIN! AAAALLLLL ABBOOOOOAAAAARRRDD!​

 

[Groose]

Spectator Mode
77.19% chance
76.15% want
The chance scores for this mode were consistently high because nobody saw a real reason for it to be cut. The want scores were pretty high for much of the same reason.

Competitively OP Character
46.95% chance
0.58% want
Without @ Cheezey Bites desire to see Namco mess up, this would have stood at .02%. As it is, though, Adam Malkovitch will have to keep his throne as our least wanted idea; remember how he only scored something in the 0.4% range? By the way, people were all over the place on this chance score, and it kind of balanced out.

Plusle and Minun
4.41% chance
17.90% want
Although they're the cheerleader Pokemon, nobody really cheered them on; their chance score is somewhat notable, but their want was pretty laughable. Looks like they got Sceptile'd.

I'm on the hype train! I love that stuff! I'm on the hype train! And I can never get enough! I'm on the hype train, and I'm ready to crash and buuuurrrrn! Oh, yeah! Today is the first day of our E3 Celebration. For those of you who don't know, it's our custom to celebrate big events like E3, the Smash Direct, and the beginning of the New Year by taking a week off from rating chances and instead reflecting on the good times we've had and hyping ourselves for the upcoming reveals. No nominations, no predictions--basically everything shuts down as we take a little holiday.

What you can do for me today is identify three characters (or concepts)--the Most Overrated, the Most Underrated, and the Most Accurate. I'll see who has the most votes at the end of the day, and we'll rate those characters that win Most Overrated and Most Underrated in our return to rating. If I recall correctly, we had Andy and Kamek as our Most Underrated last time, and Bandana Dee was our Most Overrated before the Direct. Who will it be this time?

Also, I apologize. I am working on a schedule for this week, but I'm busy, tired and sick. I'll try to have it done for tomorrow.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Overrated: Ridley: Deconfirmed. Let's at least lower the score to a more reasonable amount.
Underrated: Blaziken: Lower than Sceptile... only because of types, which no water whatsoever.
Accurate: Abstain.

 

[SchAlternate]

Overrated: Ridley: Deconfirmed. Let's at least lower the score to a more reasonable amount.
Underrated: Blaziken: Lower than Sceptile... only because of types, which no water whatsoever.
Accurate: Abstain.

Are you really saying that Blaziken isn't overrated?

 

[chronomantic]

-Most Overrated
Ridley

-Most Underrated
Chorus Kids

-Most Accurate
Palutena

 

[Erimir]

Mario Kart has kept me away from here for the weekend. It's pretty great. But now I have all of the tracks, all of the characters, all of the 3 stars on all the GPs, all of the stamps, etc. Only thing left will require collecting a lot of coins. Now I just gotta get my online rating up! Btw, if anyone would be interested in playing sometime, send me a PM.

Most Overrated well... That depends on when you're asking about. Obviously there has been some big news about some characters. Other M Ridley got a 61% chance, but I doubt he'd get anywhere near that if we rated it again (if you meant playable Other M Ridley, since the what we did see had good evidence of being based on The Other M). I don't know if I can just pick one, and I don't really want to bring up Bandana Dee again. I still think he's overrated, but the amount he's overrated by has significantly decreased since before.

If I limit it to newcomers, Chibi-Robo is a character I think has basically no chance, yet somehow has a 25% rating. I don't think highly of Bandana Dee's chances, but they're still much better than Chibi-Robo's, IMO. I see him in the same position as Saki (Sin & Punishment) and Dillon, but even worse really. He has a large overrate in both relative and absolute terms.

Most underrated... Like I've said all the previous times, our tendency here is to overrate, not underrate. Mii might be the only notable case where I think the chances are higher than our rating.

Most accurate...

Well, this is kind of a hard question to interpret in a way that it's not trivial to answer and shouldn't result in everyone giving the same answer .

Palutena and Unlockable characters are probably our most accurate positive predictions. I (and the rest of us collectively) wouldn't have rated them close to 100% if we weren't pretty sure they were going to happen. And a 100% prediction would be by definition the most accurate prediction for something that happened, and the closer to 100%, the more accurate we were. We can assess our mid-range scores collectively (if about half of our predictions that we gave around a 50% chance come true, then that's a good sign, for example), but not on an individual rating... Unless we get some inside information like that Sakurai went back and forth on a character and says he was 50-50 on them, or that he literally flipped a coin to decide a character's fate, there's no way to assess an individual 50% score as "accurate"

Conversely, predicting 0% or close to it would be the most accurate for the things that don't happen. So you know, Lupus from Jet Force Gemini who I believe has absolutely no chance (b/c even if by some miracle Nintendo got permission to use a Rare character, why bother making a deal with Microsoft for anything but Banjo-Kazooie?). In absolute terms then, I think our Lupus prediction is the most accurate, since it's the only one that's exactly where I think it should be and will match the actual outcome.

But what I take it is meant by "most accurate" is something like, which character have we given what I feel is an accurate rating to that would be difficult to rate accurately AND/OR that other people paying attention to Smash would disagree with? Like, do I think we have any Wii Fit Trainer predictions in our list, the kind of prediction that other people would notice and say, nobody expected that... except the people at RTC!

For that... well... I dunno None of us have inside information (AFAIK!), so I can't really know. If I picked something, I would just be guessing randomly.

We should have a day where we make some predictions about E3, but I guess you probably already decided to do that since we did the same for the Direct.

 

[Deleted member]

Most Overrated, Most Underrated, and Most Accurate have been added to the Directory.
From now on, these days will be labeled as "Pre-E3: *Insert Title Here*".

BTW, @ Groose , do you want me to tally the scores like before?
Most Overrated
Honestly... I have to look beyond the Top 10. I really think that our chance ratings are absolutely solid here as our top four doesn't consist of our Elite Four. But, I will analyze them regardless.
-Palutena: She's a shoo-in.
-Pac-Man: He should have gotten higher chance scores. I'm glad that the re-rates gave him his deserving honor of being our second most likely newcomer.
-Shulk: I've said before that he was slightly overrated... I disagree now. I really feel as though he stands at a good ground thanks to his merits. There is a lot going for him and I honestly think that he should crack the 70% mark.
-King K. Rool: I can't say this rating is accurate per se, but he is still a likely newcomer and deserving of top five honors.
-Chrom: Thankfully, we fixed his score. I think that his score shouldn't have dropped as dramatically as it did before. He is in a good place on these charts now.
-Mii: They're almost 50%, which I find to be pretty accurate considering the circumstances.
-Dixie Kong: I'm a bit doubtful as to her score, but she deserves to be in the top ten.
-Takamaru: Definitely the most likely retro. Honestly, I would probably lower his chance score slightly to 40%, but he is definitely a likely newcomer.
-Isaac: Like Mii, they are near 40%, which I find to be an accurate score for Isaac.
-Ridley: Hmm... I believe that he's a stage hazard, but at least his score wasn't extremely criminal like before (which was why I gave him this award before). I still hold to that 5%, but I think that the overall score is accurate.
Now... I have to look beyond the top 10 because I can't choose a character within it.
-I find Ghirahim to be slightly overrated. I don't think that he should really have 25%... maybe 15%.
-Sceptile is definitely overrated. I am not having the same vision that you guys are in terms of Pokemon. The remakes help, but I doubt Sakurai would choose Sceptile because he's a grass Pokemon. It's the same reason why I am mystified that Ivysaur has a higher chance than Squirtle.
-As I've mentioned on her day, I find Anna to be overrated. In a series where there is clearly a lot of competition for a slot, I fail to see why she should have over 10%.
-Vaati is overrated. I would give Vaati a 5% overall score. Over 12% for a villain that isn't entirely important to Zelda lore. Honestly, with the direction Zelda has been heading with Ganon plus one-offs as villains, Vaati doesn't really shine.
-After the Direct, it's become apparent that some Pokemon have been overrated... like Genesect.
-Bias has led to characters like Plasm Wraith to become overrated in their own way. Then we have cases like Reggie, who is overrated due to some trolling. Finally, we have cases like Dragon Ball Goku who is overrated due to a mixture of both.
-In my personal belief, I find that Snake is overrated. I'm not that confident as most of you are. I would award him this title... but he gets a free pass because this is E3. This is his last stand; if he's not confirmed, he's done.
Now... who do I find the most overrated?
SCEPTILE
Being a grass Pokemon doesn't cut it. If you lack the promotion that some Pokemon received, then you aren't entirely likely in my book.

Most Underrated
-Honestly... I have to throw his name out there, Bandana Dee. I would give him a higher chance score. I'm not biased to say this, but he should be at a respectable 30%.
-Black Shadow, in a way, is still underrated. I would still give him a respectable 17%-20% chance. F-Zero is dormant, but I was shocked when his scores didn't increase.
-Sukapon is still underrated in my eyes. I would still give him a 10%.
-I awarded the most underrated character to be Hades. Honestly, after the leaks... I say that he is fine where he is. Seeing as how things are going, I'm saying that Palutena is our only Kid Icarus character.
While I say this... I can't say a character is underrated, but a concept. What is the most underrated?
A RHYTHM HEAVEN CHARACTER
After the Gematsu leak, I have realized that Rhythm Heaven has a legitimate shot of getting a character. Sooner or later, we will be rating this concept and the fact that we gave this concept 14% is absolutely criminal. I would give this concept a 50% really as I can see it happen both ways. By extension, I say that Marshal is underrated. He has a legitimate chance of being playable... I would give him a much better chance score.

Most Accurate
Three scores stand out: Palutena's, Lupus's, and the Gematsu Leak's. Palutena is a shoo-in, Lupus stands no chance whatsoever, and the Gematsu leak is likely by a hair to me...
In the end, I choose...
THE GEMATSU LEAK
Honestly, this score was glorious in my eyes. Nearly 50% on both ends? That's beautiful! It shows why this leak is so dang controversial among the Internet.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

I agree with 'Tile's chances. He's slightly more noteable with the remakes. But, saying he's more likely than Blaziken? Because of stinking types...? That's like saying Venusaur would be more likely than Charizard because of typing. Blaziken's THE most popular Gen 3 starter.

 

[Deleted member]

I agree with 'Tile's chances. He's slightly more noteable with the remakes. But, saying he's more likely than Blaziken? Because of stinking types...? That's like saying Venusaur would be more likely than Charizard because of typing. Blaziken's THE most popular Gen 3 starter.

The remakes do help out all of the Pokemon from Gen III, but I just fail to see why Sceptile is that likely.

 

[SchAlternate]

Hmm. I'm getting the vibe that Ridley will be the main pick for the "most overrated" award this round.

Well, I mean, the Direct harmed his chances significantly, so he isn't a shoo-in for sure... Err, what was his current score again?

Ridley
33.02% chance (was 73.98%)
74.60% want (was 81.21%)

WH-- HOW IS THAT OVERRATED!? He's more than 50% less likely than he was before the Direct! That's a significant drop! And he had like a million people giving him 0% in chance, and some even in want, back when he was rerated with Pale Tuna! Is that really overrated? I think this score is somewhat accurate. Maybe a tiny bit too high, but not by a large margin.

AHEM.

Anyhow...

I agree with 'Tile's chances. He's slightly more noteable with the remakes. But, saying he's more likely than Blaziken? Because of stinking types...? That's like saying Venusaur would be more likely than Charizard because of typing. Blaziken's THE most popular Gen 3 starter.

Except the reason people advocate for Sceptile over Blaziken is because of Charizard. With there already being a fire type in the roster, as well as a water type newcomer, so it makes sense to some to complete the elemental circle with a grass type.

It's dumb to a degree, yeah, but it could happen.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Most Overrated
Chibi Robo and Bowser Jr.

-Most Underrated
Bandana Dee

-Most Accurate
Palutena

 

[False Sense]

I agree with 'Tile's chances. He's slightly more noteable with the remakes. But, saying he's more likely than Blaziken? Because of stinking types...? That's like saying Venusaur would be more likely than Charizard because of typing. Blaziken's THE most popular Gen 3 starter.

There wasn't another Fire type Pokemon on the roster prior to Charizard, though.

For the record, I seriously doubt that any 3rd gen starters will be getting on the roster.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Most Overrated: Shulk

Most Underrated: Rhythm Heaven Character

Most Accurate: Takamaru

 

[Leafeon523]

I'm going for a couple less conventional picks here.

Most overated: Yarne and Owain tag team

Most underated: Magnus

Most accurate: Pac-Man

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Pretty sure Sceptile got around 15%, didn't he? Pretty reasonable to me.

 

[Smasher 101]

Most Overrated: Ghirahim

I've never found a Zelda newcomer as likely as others here, and if there is one I don't even think he's the most likely. I'd cut his score in half at least.

Honorable mentions: Chibi-Robo and Sceptile. The former is likely to end up as an assist trophy, and I don't think we'll see a second Pokemon newcomer, even with the Gen III remakes.


Most Underrated: Mii

This was a really tough one as not many characters stand out as underrated to me. Mii was the only notable exception. I personally think his chances should get at least a 10%-15% increase.

Honorable mentions: N/A

Most Accurate: Lupus

He is the least likely character we've ever rated and the only one to not register any sort of percentage in chance. Seems fitting to me.

Honorable mentions: Palutena and Shulk. Palutena's nearly guaranteed at this point so of course she should have the number one spot, and Shulk's chance score is almost exactly where I'd put it.

 

[Xenigma]

I'm going to keep all my votes here to newcomers, partially for sake of simplicity, and partially because at its core RTC is about rating the chance of newcomers. That said, I really like the idea of the Gematsu Leak being our most accurate rating at just over 50% chance and just shy of 50% want. That's pretty well on-point and perfectly shows just how debatable the leak is.

Most Overrated - Shulk
I know I've said it before, and with Shulk only moving up in chance with each rerate up to nearly 70%, it's only getting more and more true over time. Don't get me wrong, I think Shulk deserves his spot among the more likely newcomers (at least top twenty), but the idea that a character who has starred in exactly one game with modest sales success is more likely than Miis, K. Rool, Dixie, and Ridley...I'm sorry, but I just don't see it. In my opinion his chance should be about half what it is now, but between the unusually strong fanbase he has here on Smashboards and the popular second Gematsu leak, it's unlikely his chances dip to more realistic levels unless E3 effectively shoots him down without an out-right confirmation or deconfirmation (Gematsu leak proven fake, no presence in X footage, etc.). Guess we'll see what happens, eh?
Runner-up - Chrom - Absolutely deserving of a strong rating, but at 70% now, I think users are underestimating the potential danger Lucina and Robin offer. He's a strong candidate, but not exactly a shoe-in.

Most Underrated - Ridley
Ironically, Ridley's liable to appear on both sides today, and for good reason: depending on how you read the evidence, he's either the center of a massive hype campaign or flat-out deconfirmed. Personally, I'm inclined to believe the former, in large part because it is flat-out irresponsible for Nintendo to spend nearly a year teasing him only to ultimately disappoint the fanbase of one of the most requested characters in Smash history. If he's just a boss, why not simply show him off like they did Yellow Devil and move on? Why build up fan expectations like that only to crush them in the end? It doesn't make sense unless there's more to the story. Anyway, the point is that with such a strong case to be made for either side, you'd think the rating would end up somewhere around the 50% mark, yet instead he's lost more than half his chance to go down to 33%, which is simply too low without better evidence in one direction or the other. Will make for an interesting rerate after E3 should he remain a mystery, though I suspect he's going to be revealed playable during the Nintendo Digital Event.
Runner-up - Lucina - Like I said with Chrom, I think users are underestimating how much of a threat Lucina in particular offers for a Fire Emblem newcomer spot. She's simply too popular, too well publicized, and too generally important to be just about 10% chance.

Most Accurate - Lupus
Okay, that's way too easy. Let's try this again:

Most Accurate - Palutena
Nope, still too easy thanks to the leak. One more try:

Most Accurate - Dixie
The idea of a DK newcomer has been an ongoing rating challenge because there are two very strong candidates between Dixie and K. Rool. Most seem to agree that DK deserves a third character, and most seem to agree that Dixie and K. Rool both have strong claims to that spot, yet both have enjoyed ratings significantly over 50% since this game began. Well, no more: while K. Rool still resides near 70% chance, Dixie has finally been brought down to just shy of 50%, which seems right on point for a franchise with two equally strong competitors for one rather likely spot. Now, the franchise is still well over 100% total chance for a newcomer, which doesn't make much sense at this point when we are so close to release with only Donkey Kong and Diddy revealed, but at least one of the two possible reps seems to have a very accurate rating now, and that's to be commended in a game where so many players with disparate opinions are throwing in their two cents.
Runner-up - Isaac - I've gotta say, considering the ridiculous hype train that Shulk seems to enjoy on Smashboards nowadays, I've gotta hand it to the raters that Isaac's still enjoying nearly 40% chance. I may still place him at 50%, but 40% is still an extremely reasonable rating that perfectly shows both how strong a case he has for inclusion and how much reasonable doubt exists that he might actually make the cut. Feels like a very accurate rating based on what we currently know.

 

[Glaciacott]

Most Overrated: Sceptile
I personally love this idea, but I feel like Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire kind of forced some people's hands into raising Sceptile's chances to higher levels than normal. I also feel like it's one of those cases where fan logic that makes sense to everyone (grass starter, hoenn, ash's sceptile, etc.) won't necessarily make sense to Sakurai or the Smash team so Sceptile should definitely have lower chances to take that into account.

Most Underrated: Rhythm Heaven Character
I've been waiting for Hippopotasauce to raise the rerate for a while, because 14% at this point is just absurd, for a franchise that's as popular and successful and unique as this one. Not asking for anything about 30%, mind you, but I definitely think this should be higher.

Most Accurate: Chrom
Now, there's a lot of ratings we have made that I feel are very accurate. And of course there's the easy ones like OF COURSE Mr. Game and Watch has that score.
However, the reason I make this one Chrom is because of what Fire Emblem has been like in this thread. Just looking at both top tens, Chrom/Robin and even Anna are constantly rearing their heads and causing all sorts of shifts and re-rates, and it feels like the board itself is constantly wavering between Chrom, then Robin, then Chrom & Lucina, then definitely Robin, but nope, it'll surely be Chrom, etc ...
And after all of that ... I think Chrom having around two thirds of a chance is pretty freaking accurate. It effectively conveys the fact there is some chance another high profile Fire Emblem character makes it, while also making it clear that Chrom is by a considerable margin the most likely Fire Emblem newcomer we have.

 

[UnicornDemon]

*edit: Added reasoning and changed a rating.

Overrated: King K. Rool
Honorable Mentions: Chibi-Robo and Shulk

The only characters I think have a greater than 50% chance are Pac-Man and Palutena, so I really think everything in the top 10 is overrated. K. Rool stood out to me the most, though, since he hasn't been relevant to the Donkey Kong series for a while. He was missing from both DKC Returns games and the Jungle Beat series. The main thing in his favor is Kremlings in Smash Run, but Tiki Buzz from DKC Returns also appears in Smash Run. I'd say his chances are around 35-40%.

Underrated: Ghirahim
Honorable Mention: Cranky Kong
@a Link to the Forums summed this one up nicely. I'd put Ghirahim at at least 40%. As for Cranky Kong, he's made a consistent appearance in nearly every single Donkey Kong game to date, has appeared in the background of Jungle Japes for Brawl/Melee, and just recently became playable in Tropical Freeze. He also has significance as being the original Donkey Kong in the arcade game with Mario. I'd bump him up to around 25%.

Most Accurate: Scrooge McDuck Zip from Flingsmash

 

[Toxicroaker]

Most Overrated: Sceptile

Most Underrated: Six Mario Characters

Most Accurate: Lupus obviously.

 

[HylianHeroBigBoss]

Most Overrated: King K Rool

Most Underrated: Snake

Most Accurate: Chrom

 

[Deleted member]

No one really stands out to me as overrated or underrated. However...

Most Accurate: Spyro

 

[Deleted member]

Most overrated: Chibi-Robo

Looking back, I really overestimated his chances & he can very easily wind up as an assist trophy like Dillion. I also noticed hes nearly up there with Robin in terms of chances of joining in while other characters such as Waddle Dee are below him which doesn't sit with me right. I regret that rating

Most underrated: Krystal

Yes, Star Fox isn't likely to get a newcomer but would it really hurt to bump her score a tiny bit more? IMO her chance score should be hovering around in the 20% area (Which isn't that much mind you), she has a much better chance of joining than Sceptile or Tingle. I just think people underestimate her & its been a while since she got last rated (Before the direct, woosh!) but hey, thats me!

Most accurate: Palutena...

Too many things point to her inclusion she's practically guaranteed.

 

[Starbound]

Alrighty...

I'm gonna make things simple and compare most of the relatively plausible entries' scores with what I would've given them. The largest +% is the overrated character, and the largest -% is the underrated character. RTC scores are on the left and my scores are on the right. The score closest to 0% is the most accurate.

Spoiler

Palutena: 95% vs 100% (-5%)
Pac-Man: 81% vs 100% (-19%)
Shulk: 69% vs 100% (-31%)
King K. Rool: 68% vs 40% (+28%)
Chrom: 68% vs 98% (-30%)
Mii: 55% vs 100% (-45%)
Dixie: 49% vs 40% (+9%)
Takamaru: 46% vs 15% (+31%)
Isaac: 43% vs 20% (+23%)
Ridley: 33% vs 50% (-17%)
Chorus Men: 28% vs 99% (-71%)
Bowser Jr.: 26% vs 20% (+6%)
Robin: 25% vs 1% (+24%)
Chibi Robo: 25% vs 15% (+10%)
Ghirahim: 25% vs 3% (+22%)
Waddle Dee: 24% vs 10% (+14%)
Sceptile: 19% vs vs 40% (-21%)
Andy: 19% vs 25% (+6%)
Krystal: 16% vs 5% (+11%)

So my votes are as follows:

Most Underrated: Chorus Men
Most Overrated: Takamaru
Most Accurate: Bowser Jr.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Overrated:
Setting aside the Brawl Pokémon + Mewtwo (why is that not deconfirmed on the list?) and all other stages/concepts there are really four that stand out

Honorable Mention:
Robin (it's practically Chrom or bust)
Waddle Dee (No need to explain here)
Mii (Practically Deconfirmed)

Most Overated:
Chorus Men (that leak boosted them way too high, and there's not even justification)


Underated:
This one's a little more difficult, there are certainly more that haven't got the ratings I think they deserve.

Honorable Mention:
Marshall (the leak pushed the clear front runner to the side)
Black Shadow (Japanese popularity underestimated)
Slime (Japanese popularity massively underestimated, though more justifiably as a 3rd party)
Ridley (I think he's practically confirmed, though his ambiguous nature does lead to understandable doubt)

Most Underrated:
Bowser Jr. (our baseless 5 slot perception has tainted his score that deserves to be higher)



Most Accurate: Lupus
Obviously...

 

[Erimir]

Ironically, Ridley's liable to appear on both sides today, and for good reason: depending on how you read the evidence, he's either the center of a massive hype campaign or flat-out deconfirmed. Personally, I'm inclined to believe the former, in large part because it is flat-out irresponsible for Nintendo to spend nearly a year teasing him only to ultimately disappoint the fanbase of one of the most requested characters in Smash history. If he's just a boss, why not simply show him off like they did Yellow Devil and move on? Why build up fan expectations like that only to crush them in the end? It doesn't make sense unless there's more to the story.

You know, I think Ridley's score is about where it should be, personally.

I think there's a case for either side, and I agree that it would be a really stupid marketing move to tease Ridley for a year and then not deliver something truly great. And it would be a huge miscalculation on Nintendo/Sora's part if they think Ridley being an AT or a stage hazard/boss like Yellow Devil is anywhere near epic enough to justify the level of teasing they've given.

But the reasons I think it tilts towards Ridley not being in?

1. Expect disappointment from Sakurai. This is the guy who left out Diddy Kong, Wario and Dedede/Meta Knight from Melee. Who chose to make Ganondorf into a Capt. Falcon clone. Who cut Mewtwo. And we haven't really gotten any characters way more popular in the West (at the time of their inclusion*) other than Little Mac.
2. He hasn't always been smart with how he reveals things. When Brawl was delayed, he didn't think it was a good idea to adjust the reveal schedule to keep the hype up, he just pushed it backed 3 months. He left us hanging with complete filler for 3 agonizing months. I could see him miscalculating the fan reaction on this.
3. He's not part of the Gematsu leak... which only matters in as much as you trust the leak. But it doesn't leave a lot of room for other characters.

I could see arguing the score should be a bit higher, but not by a very large margin...

*Samus is not a counterexample, as when she was included in Smash 64, Super Metroid was her last game, and the Metroid series wasn't really a Western series the way it is now. For whatever reason, the games after Super Metroid have sold significantly better in the US than other regions (especially the Metroid Prime series).

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

Most overrated: Takamaru. Nobody that isn't a hardcore Nintendo fan has any idea who he is.

Most underrated: Bowser Jr. Basically everyone's argument against him has to do with the number-of-slots argument which is baseless because we don't live in the mind of Sakurai and we can't say he won't add Bowser Jr since there's too many Mario reps.

Most accurate: Palutena. I don't even need to explain myself. Everything points at her.

 

[Kalimdori]

I'm gonna get shot for some of these...

Overrated: King K. Rool
Let me preface this by saying that I want K. Rool in the game. I hold no personal attachment to the character, but I want those who want the character to be happy with the roster. But 70%? Where Dixie is only 50%? K. Rool is iconic, a villain, and popular, but he doesn't have much more going for him. He could come back at any time, but he hasn't yet. At this point in time, Dixie is more relevant, was planned to be in Brawl, has just as much chance to be unique movesetwise, she is female, she is the more likely character! Yeah, sure, the Kremlings were in Smash Run. So were Reapers. Hades/Medusa confirmed.

I think the reason that people latch onto the Kremlings in Smash Run is because everybody clamored that Nintendo didn't own them, and this proved how wrong and stupid they were. But that was never the case, those people were stupid and wrong, this changes almost nothing! Of course they are going to put iconic enemies into Smash Run, and Kremlings are the most iconic enemies from the DK series. But this doesn't suddenly confirm K. Rool.

K. Rool's chances have boosted since Brawl with the rise of the new DKC games. But I'm not going to claim that he's likely. Dixie's chances have skyrocketed in comparison, and K. Rool DEFINITELY should not be ranked above her. If we get 4 DK characters, he will definitely be in. But I find it very unlikely that he will beat Dixie if there are only 3. I feel that K. Rool's chances should be lower then 50% at the very least, as his chances partially rely on having 4 DK characters, which we only have rated at 25%.

Runner Up: Chorus Men
They are only this high because of a leak. I would have put Palutena here if Sakurai hadn't followed up that leak, but no such thing has happened with the Sal leaks.
A Rhythm Heaven character? Sure, that's perfectly possible! But Chorus Men, over any other one?
No.

Second Runner Up: No Cuts


Underrated: Mewtwo, and by extension, 6 Pokemon
Didn't want to be redundant by putting Dixie, so, Mewtwo. I will make this short and simple: Sakurai openly admitted he was considering adding him into the game!!!!

He has a whole bucketload of credentials in his favor, but I think those are well known. I think he is this low because some people doubt 6 Pokemon, a doubt, with all due respect, I find hilarious.

Runner Up: Ridley
50/50 character should be 50/50. I find it funny how Palutena, a character that Sakurai hints and teases at, but refuses to refer by name, is considered a shoe in, but Ridley, another character he gives the same treatment, is disconfirmed. His small size, his choppy animations, the removal of lava from the FD version... there is as much in his favor as there is against it. I personally consider Ridley a shoe in, I believe Sakurai is trolling us. But I am blinded by my desire to have Ridley playable, and fully admit that Ridley could be a boss. But there isn't enough information to rate either way. Oh, and:

Accurate: Palutena
Cop out! But the leak isn't what influences this. It's how Sakurai has reacted to the leak. He has teased Palutena multiple times ever since the Direct, referencing Kid Icarus directly after the leak, showing her in a NPC fashion on a stage (*cough* Ridley *cough*), removing her as Pit's Final Smash. But she became confirmed in my eyes at the Trophy Quiz portion. That was a flat out, laugh out loud tease by Sakurai that he probably enjoyed making.

Runner Up: Mii
Almost 50/50, exactly where it should be. There are things in it's favor, there are things against it.

 

[TheZombiePig]

Overated: gematsu Sceptile.
It's not going to happen. Stacked up against Jigglypuff and Mewtwo, and the fact that omega ruby and alpha sapphire won't be releasing until after the 3DS Smash release.

Underated: A Fire Emblem newcomer that isn't Chrom.
With both Marth and Ike, I could see the roster taking a route without Chrom.

Accurate: Gematsu
I think it was rated at around 50%, which seems about right.