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[Captain Toad]

Shulk
chance: 60% I think there is a chance, just there are a few other series too that have a chance too, though his popularity and recent...ness might work in his favour.
want: 40% not played his game, so don't know that much, however from what I've read he seems pretty cool. Wouldn't be against his inclusion over all and could potentially get me to try xenoblade.

Also I'm selfishly holding out for another series (Isaac from Golden Sun) to hopefully become playable haha.(pipe dream)

Mewtwo
chance: 50% I don't have a clue about if he still has a chance. I thought he was almost a dead cert, but I thought that about Bowser Jr...so I'm a terrible judge.
want: 50% If he returns I want him to be awesome not average. He's meant to be the ultimate Pokémon so I would like him to pay like that.

 

[Arcanir]

Mewtwo
Chances: 95%
Personally, I don't think anything about the two confirmations/changes (and Lucario for that matter) that we got have hurt his chances. Yes, our deemed likely "Brawl+Mewtwo" group didn't come to fruition, but those characters did not do anything to Mewtwo in that process as his merits are not affected by their inclusions. He's still the most wanted character for SSB4 in the west and the east, he's still one of the most popular Pokémon of all time, he had a place in Smash many miss, and he holds the merit of being one of the most (if not the most) prominently marketed of the Pokémon currently for XY. All of these merits do not disappear because our prediction was off, Mewtwo is still a very likely character like he was before.

Want:
75% I loved him in Melee, and he was a character I enjoyed back then in the Pokémon games. Due to that, I would like for him to come back and be among the current Pokémon cast.

Abstaining from Shulk.

 

[Miffa]

Shulk
Chance: 65% I think he a little over half a chance to make it in
Want: 80% Never played Xenoblade but sounds cool
Mewtwo
Chance: 80% with squirtle and ivasaur probaly getting removed i can see mewtwo coming back
Want: 50% I dont really care i like mewtwo but did not like his play style in Melle

 

[Toxicroaker]

Shulk: 100% Chance / 90% Want
Being in the Gematsu leak is a huge plus for him right now as it pretty much confirms him. I really want him in because of the Xenoblade OST that will inevitably come with it.

Mewtwo: 100% Chance / 100% Want
Cutting Squirtle and Ivysaur is a huge boon for Mewtwo, as it lets him fit in the 6 Pokemon slots of the Brawl roster without worrying about possible overcrowdedness (which is dumb to begin with but I digress).

I must say, your ratings sure are... gererous...

 

[andimidna]

I must say, your ratings sure are... gererous...

If the leak is real, he's 100% in.
So if you believe the leak, then you 100% believe the character is in.

Same goes for: Pac-Man, Mii, Chrom, Mr. Rythym Heaven Person, Palutena, and.... who else? I don't 100% remember the leak.

 

[SethTheMage]

Ouch. Dixie fell hard in both areas. Guess that's to be expected from a pre-February Direct sample. Anyway, Shulk and Mewtwo.

Mewtwo:

Chance: 95%
I disagree strongly with the idea that Greninja makes him any less likely than before. If anything, the solo Charizard boosts his chances if that means that Squirtle and Ivysaur are gone. I think this is probably the case because I think two playable Water-type starters is a little unnecessary. If this is the case, then there are less Pokemon characters to compete with. Mewtwo is easily the most popular Pokemon character request, Sakurai hinted at him during the X and Y Rountable at E3 ("We are thinking about it"), and he meets all of the criteria that Sakurai laid down for when he selects Pokemon characters. I'd be willing to bet that the reason why we haven't seen him confirmed yet is because he is a hard-to-unlock secret character, like he was in Melee. I don't quite see him as a lock like Palutena, but I think he is pretty damn likely.

Want: 100%
HELL YES. Back in 2001, when I first played Melee at a Best Buy, he was the first character I tried. I remember looking at my sister and being really excited that freaking Mewtwo was playable in the new Smash Bros. game. I loved his movements and his playstyle, and the fact that I was controlling the world's most powerful Pokemon. He would have been my main if he was implemented better (I realize the irony in my statement, given that Roy ended up becoming my main in Melee). When Brawl came out, the first thing that killed my excitement about the new game was the absence of him and Roy. I would be ecstatic if I am given another opportunity to control him. Even though Project M fixed my long-held disappointment in Brawl by bringing back my main and secondary from Melee, I still am waiting for Mewtwo to make his long-awaited epic comeback in an official Smash title. To quote King Dedede from Smash Kingdom Melee, "I miss my Mewtwo".

Shulk:

Chance: 70%
I've never played Xenoblade Chronicles, but he scored high on ChronoBound's results on the Japanese fanbase, so I can see that there is demand for him in both Japan and the West. XC also seems to have done well, given the fact that it is getting a sequel soon, so I wouldn't count it out. I think he's pretty likely.

Want 30%
Never played his game, so I don't have much interest in him. He seems like he would be another sword user, so I'd actually have to try him out to see if I'd like him. Who knows, I might really like the character like I did with Roy in Melee, but for now, he's a big "meh".

 

[Glaciacott]

I'll keep it brief this time, got a bunch of other stuff going on Well that failed

Shulk
Chance - abstain. I am currently extremely biased in favor of Shulk and given I have no other data aside from desire, this WILL be a poor rating. So I'll pass on chance, but ...

Want - 100%
Shulk has progressively gone up my top ten wanted list, and since Little Mac and Greninja open up spots in that top ten (Greninja due to me wanting a pokemon newcomer), he's definitely climbed his way in there. I love that he represents a new era of Nintendo, a great JRPG, that he brings a new franchise with great story, characters and music ... He just makes so much sense in Smash and I definitely want to see him in it.

Mewtwo
Chance - 75%
OK, first of all, I think Greninja doesn't affect his chances at all. Like I mentioned during the Blaziken days, I saw a new pokemon rep as a possibility even if I thought the greatest chance was Brawl + Mewtwo. Even with Greninja, I still think Mewtwo has a very solid chance, helped more than anything by how much Sakurai knows people want him.
And that's the other bit ... Sakurai trolls in this direct helped a lot in terms of knowing what character he is aware people want. And there is no way that trailer wasn't an intentional Mewtwo troll, down to the fact Greninja's fingers looked different during the shadowy parts. It was a very clear Mewtwo troll and he knew people would immediately think of him the moment the first pokeball flew into the screen. This fact alone tells me Mewtwo can be indeed expected, because to troll him and then for us not to get him would be far too much of a jerk move.

Want - 60%
Ok, his want for me dropped dramatically. And this time it is Greninja's fault. See, the thing is, for every smash I wind up using the new pokemon character. Melee is all about Mewtwo for me, and Brawl it's about PT (and Wolf too, I suppose), and then Project M I had a love affair with Ivysaur ... when I saw Greninja, I got that excitement again of "yes, new pokemon! I WANT to use that character really badly now!" ... so even though I think Mewtwo makes sense in the roster, if he doesn't make it ... I think I'd be ok. I will still play melee and Project M, and I'll love using him there, and in Smash4 I'll stick to Greninja. I think I'm even at the point where I would be more excited about another pokemon newcomer, ideally a grass type, replacing jiggs or Mewtwo.
Man, the Greninja surprise just got me so much more excited about Smash than the idea of only veteran pokemon. I am so hyped up for this game now. (ha! Like I wasn't before ... )

Predictions
Paku Man - 84%
Mii - 65%
Ooh, rounding out the first Sal Romano leak ... I look forward particularly to talking about Mii, since we've just talked about that one less and with less interest.

 

[Rockaphin]

Shulk:
Chance: 80%
Want: 10%
Haven't played his game and he doesn't interest me as of now.

Mewtwo:
Chance: 95%
Want: 95%
I only want him if they change his moveset a bit. But I think he needs a return.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Shulk Likelihood: 30%
Want: 50%

Mewtwo Likelihood: 45%
Want: 50%

Pac Man: 81.5%
Mii: 61.5%

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Mewtwo:
The original Pokégod.

Chance: 95%
Pokémon characters in Smash are all about who got the most promotion recently (or soon in the case of Greninja) and Mewtwo still had a movie just recently... Also he's the most requested character for Smash, so that helps! Greninja has a similar move (though with very different properties), but that's it, he, like Lucario, is nowhere near a Mewtwo clone.

Want: 100%
He's Mewtwo, and P:M makes me excited for his return.



Shulk:
Japan's most wanted.

Chance: 70%
Monolith's new game totally has Shulk in it, and he's highly rquested in Japan, so he's high on the list... he could get the Isaac treatment, but given we haven't seen him yet I think it's likely he's playable.

Want: 80%
I didn't think Xenoblades was that fantastic... good, but being a PS3 RPG gamer gives it a LOT of competition... but Shulk would make a lot of people happy, he has great character potential, and would represent a growing series that looks like it's only going to get better! Dragon Quest might still be the Nintendo console RPG series of choice (for me), but this looks to be set to take the number 4 slot off Golden sun (Etrian Odyssey is second, Pokémon 3rd [even though I didn't like X/Y as much as BW2])... Assuming Bravely Second and Conception don't take that slot before it...



Pac-Man: 92%
Galaga!!!

Mii: 58%
Being a stage hazard, online function, and legal mine field is not enough to make people stop believing this stupid idea.

 

[Erimir]

Shulk

Points for chance...
+ Fairly requested in both Japan and the West
+ Highly critically acclaimed debut
+ Xenoblade didn't get huge sales, but it sold out and it's difficult to find a copy for less than $100 (i.e. it would've sold more had they made it more available)
+ Xenoblade is getting a sequel, and Shulk is hinted to be in it
+ He's both easy to design and has some interesting moves
+ Xenoblade would have stunning stage and music potential, if Sakurai cares about such things
+ Sakurai seems to be a fan
+ Part of the Gematsu leak... although personally I'm skeptical of it until we see someone else confirmed who wasn't a gimme (i.e. not Chrom or Palutena). "Pokemon from Pokemon X & Y" is too vague to get full credit, Mega Man and Villager were fairly obvious. Wii Fit Trainer is the only truly impressive prediction. That said, just one or two more correct, and I'll be a believer.

- - Relatively unknown among casuals
- - Series is very new, and not very high selling yet
- Shulk might not be in the sequel
- Competition with some other magic-using, sword-wielding, blond fantasy RPG protagonists

Shulk has some good points in his favor, but he also has some strong points against him. Earthbound got in because Sakurai's a fan, despite its low sales. Shulk could get in despite not being that big just because Sakurai likes it, or because Nintendo thinks X will be a big deal, etc. He'd be getting in at a lower level of sales than any series but Earthbound in Smash 64 (but obviously all the series lifetime sales were lower back then).

But Xenoblade Chronicles is, to me, one of Nintendo's best opportunities for a new, AAA IP in a while, one that appeals to gamers outside of their traditional demographic. It's been a long time since the SNES, when Nintendo was the system for fans of RPGs. But now they can say that one of the best RPGs of the last generation was on Wii.

Anyway, in the end I think the good and the bad mostly even out, and Shulk has good, but not amazing chances.

Shulk chances: 55%

Points for want...

+ I liked Xenoblade Chronicles a lot
+ It has great music
+ The stage would be beautiful (They really should do an HD remaster for the Wii U... Satorl Marsh at night in HD would be pretty amazing)
+ Good AT opportunities too

- Shulk per se wasn't the reason I like Xenoblade Chronicles so much
- He has decent moveset potential, but he doesn't excite me on that front for whatever reason.

Shulk want: 70%

Mewtwo

Points for chance...
+ + Very highly requested worldwide
+ + More relevant than he's been in a long time with X & Y, his Mega Evolutions, etc.
+ Sakurai hinted at him before
+ Still popular and so forth
+ Psychic type not represented in current roster
+ Moveset could get an overhaul to fix any issues there might be with his

- There are only one or two Pokemon slots left. Seven Pokemon slots is, well... possible but seems very very unlikely
- Sakurai seems to want to do more new things, and Pokemon is one of his best opportunities to shake up the roster - most of the other series have a very clear order of priority for characters
- Competition from other potential newcomers, Jigglypuff, Ivysaur and Squirtle. I don't think the latter two are much competition though. It's mostly Jigglypuff and another Pokemon newcomer.
- For some reason he feels a little similar to Lucario and Greninja... but this is a very minor point

Mewtwo chances: 70%
All in all, a lot of points in Mewtwo's favor, and while Greninja steps on his toes a bit, I don't think he disqualifies Mewtwo by any means. I'm definitely less confident about him though. I'm not sure bringing back Mewtwo appeals to Sakurai (who wants to do new things in Smash) as much as it does to the fans (who want no cuts, ever). That said, Mewtwo is still one of the most likely non-Brawl veterans out there.

Points for want...

+ Melee veteran, Gen 1 Pokemon
+ More deserving than most
+ Dat booty

- Found his moveset lackluster in Melee
- Was never that into him

Mewtwo want: 50%
I don't care much either way. As long as he doesn't take Jiggs's spot.

Predictions:
Pac-Man - 80%
Namco items are gonna be cited over and over
Mii - 64%
Slight boost from all the Mii-related stages, mitigated by some other things

Shulk: 100% Chance / 90% Want
Being in the Gematsu leak is a huge plus for him right now as it pretty much confirms him.

You don't think there's any chance the leaker is fake but lucky, or that he's not telling the truth about everything, or he's not completely informed, etc.? None at all?

If the leak is real, he's 100% in.
So if you believe the leak, then you 100% believe the character is in.

You mean if you 100% believe the leak.

You can believe the leak without being 100% confident in it. Personally, I wouldn't recommend it.

 

[Starbound]

Shulk
You don't think there's any chance the leaker is fake but lucky, or that he's not telling the truth about everything, or he's not completely informed, etc.? None at all?

The odds are way too low to be considered lucky. Getting five of the six reveals basically confirms that he's legit in my mind.

If he's not telling the truth about everything or if he's not completely informed, I don't see how it changes anything. If there are newcomers beyond the 11 (+ Rosalina) that he gave us, it won't effect Shulk's chances. If characters on his list start getting roles like assist trophies or stage hazards, then yes I'll be a bit skeptical. But thus far, his leak has made it quite clear that the characters he's given us are playable.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Shulk chance - 85%

I'm leaning towards the gematsu leak being true, so obviously I would think the characters included on it all now have an increased chance.

Shulk want - 100%

Second only to Isaac in my desire.

Mewtwo chance - 75%

He still has a strong chance, but not quite as strong as it could be I think. Mewtwo took a real hammering when Greninja was announced.

Mewtwo want - 100%

My third most wanted character after Isaac and Shulk.

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

Shulk-
Chance: 60% because he's highly requested and would advertise a great new IP
Want: 75% for reasons listed above

Mewtwo-
Chance: 40% because he didn't even make the cut from Melee to Brawl, and now Greninja kinda shot him in the foot
Want: 50% He's cool and one of the more popular Pokemon, however I wouldn't ever use him if he was in... The only case where I'd use him is if the random button made me play as him.

 

[R_Trigger]

Shulk
Chance - I'm abstaining from this since I honestly don't know and I'm ignoring leaks.
Want - 100% My most wanted newcomer as of now and we need more British accents.

Abstaining from everyone else.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Shulk:
Chance: 70%
One of Japan's most wanted, X is taking off in a big way, a cult hit. More likely than not, etc. Nothing in the direct as far as I'm aware has affected him much.

Want: 50%
Yet another popular choice that I'm fairly indifferent to. In Shulk's case it's due to not playing his game...that thing is hard as hell to get ahold of, and even if you can find it... that price. Yeesh.

Mewtwo:
Chance: 75%
THE most popular request in the world. Actually am expecting DLC packs to be available for both games upon the release of Wii U(else where's the hype for the console version? We know the roster already. Boring...), and am thinking Mewtwo, should he fail to make it into the default roster WILL get in via a Melee pack alongside Roy and the lesser popular Melee cuts...people would pay through the nose for Mewtwo, so he seems like a great choice for DLC content.

Greninja's trailer seemed like a hint, and Sakurai has stated they are 'thinking about it' regarding adding Mewtwo. For me these seem like hints that he'll be playable if not now, later.

Want: 60%
That said Melee Mewtwo was god awful. By far my least favourite character to be stuck playing as in any Smash game(yep; given the choice I'd play as Pichu over Mewtwo at any point) so if he's as bad as he was then, I kinda don't want him.

I understand he's the second most popular Pokemon on the planet(right after Charizard), and he IS a big deal but that playstyle does nothing for me. Gave him a 50% for having split feelings on the guy, and an additional 10% due to him being by far the most deserving inclusion due to popularity, planning in all Smashes, and being a genuine Pokemon All Star.

I just think if he remains the same as he did in Melee(a common argument against Roy is he'd be the same as in Melee, this never seems to be brought up with Mewtwo which I find mildly amusing) he's going to be an utter waste of potential, and end up annoying the fans. Better rework him.

Predictions:

Pac-Man: 90%
Wakka wakka mother ****a. Namco having their own Assist Trophy type thing points to there definitely being a Namco newcomer. Guess who is the most legendary front runner for this?

Mii: 62%
After the Direct; Mii is a little bit more questionable than before due to the Find Mii stage having a Mii in it, albeit we've seen that stage without the Mii in the cage too. Will be interesting to see what people think of this. Another Alfonzo situation?

 

[PK_Wonder]

Shulk
92%
I'd say he's the second most likely character, after Palutena. This Direct had little effect on him, but I have grown more confidence in the idea after considering a few things. I never realized how highly requested he was worldwide until recently, and upcoming title "X" is being pushed by Nintendo on a worldwide scale. They have no doubt this time in terms of localization like they did for the very critically acclaimed, fan acclaimed, and relatively successful for a niche epic jrpg adventure spiritual predecessor that Xenoblade Chronicles is. XC is widely regarded as one of the best games on the Wii - of the 2010's so far, actually.

I would like to present a piece of evidence that is more important than you may realize:

XC has a collectible Puzzle Panel on 3DS. No other niche series in Nintendo's vast repertoire can claim that. The rest of the puzzles are 3DS games, or if Wii or Wii U games, they are Mario, Kirby, Donkey Kong, The Legend of Zelda, and Metroid related. There are roughly 40 million 3DS owners who will be exposed to this collectible puzzle piece through StreetPass and SpotPass. They may never play it, but they have heard of it now, which is more than you can say for a couple of series with playable characters.

Even if only half of those even bother to check their StreetPasses and collect their puzzles, they will have at least be aware that this niche jrpg exists. Not that THAT even matters too much. This is EarthBound all over again. A recent-ish cult classic... and then we have Lucas, from Japanese exclusive Mother 3.



Mewtwo
95%
Shulk is the second most likely newcomer, that is. Mewtwo is... a returning veteran, a weird category that can only apply to a few characters. Mewtwo being the only non-clone or highly requested of the bunch.
He is at the highest point of popularity he has had since Pokemon: The First Movie: Mewtwo Strikes Back (which I remember seeing in theaters back in November 1999). His Mega Evolutions boost his potential and relevance even further. He is the original "Gotta Catch Em All" ultimate challenge, and no legendary can quite capture the awe and obsession that playgrounds across America had with him. and now, with only a few legendaries in X and Y vanilla, the same magic is happening all over. oh, and Sakurai has hinted at him. Mewtwo is in, unless Jigglypuff is deemed enough. That would cause a rather vocal backlash, and Sakurai is being quite the fanpleaser this game.

 

[SmashShadow]

Shulk: 50%
I honestly have yet to see why he's such a strong chance other than his popularity which is still pretty niche because his series is only 1 game strong. If he was to appear in this new X game, I would probably raise this to 60% but as of right now he's still pretty obscure and unimportant. Still, he's got popularity and could be used to advertise this new game, I'm just not holding my breathe for him.
Want: 45% I'm pretty indifferent toward him but at this point, there's so many characters I want before him it's not even funny.

Now for the important stuff...

Mewtwo: 99%
Want: 100%

Argument #1: Mewtwo in the Anime
Mewtwo is no doubt one of the most recognizable Pokemon characters in existence. You'll be hard pressed to find someone who even remotely liked Pokemon who doesn't know about him. Mewtwo made his first appearance in a brief scene in the Pokemon episode, The Battle of the Badge, then subsequently appeared in the episodes, Mr. Mime Time and Showdown at the Po-ké Corral. But it wasn't until the Pokemon The First Movie created in 1998 was introduced that Mewtwo became the forefront of the Pokemon series forever cementing its iconic name. Serving as the main antagonist in the first and most well known of all the Pokemon movies easily makes this Mewtwo's most important role. Fans of the show grew to love the all powerful legendary who could be argued as having the most character development of any Pokemon in the entire series.

Spoiler

Even after this, he was still featured prominently in the anime having his own movie-length special in the form of Mewtwo Returns. This special acts as a sequel to the original movie showcasing that this Mewtwo is indeed the same Mewtwo but conversely plays the role of protagonist this time against Team Rocket leader, Giovanni. There is also a prequel to the movie is a short called The Uncut Story of Mewtwo which shows Mewtwo's unconscious thoughts while he is encapsulated in the cloning chamber, the loss of his cloned friends and the true reason for Mewtwo's cloning.

Spoiler

Not only has Mewtwo been featured the first movie but was also the co-star of the most recent Pokemon movie, Pokemon Genesect and the Legend Awakened. Produce in 2013, Mewtwo became the first Pokemon to ever be shown to have the new ability called mega evolution backed with a completely new persona and backstory of being created by Team Plasma. This recent appearance on raised the chances of us seeing Mewtwo in Smash as it just adds a recent element to the long list of credentials on Mewtwo's resume.

Spoiler

In 2013, Mewtwo became the sort of end boss of the 4-part Pokemon series, Pokemon Origins this time showcasing a much more savage depiction. Red struggles to catch the last of the 150 Kanto Pokemon in his list and in the end it becomes a brutal battle between Charizard and Mewtwo. This was also the first time Charizard X was revealed.

Spoiler

Mewtwo has also been featured in the Pokemon special, The Master of Mirage Pokemon (2006) where he was the form taken by the ultimate chimera of Pokemon mirages created from Mew's energy.

Spoiler

Man that took a while to write. That alone should tell you how much of a role Mewtwo has played in the anime, especially considering the fact that he's a legendary and they are generally feature on once or twice in the show.

Argument #2: Video Games
I'd be at my computer all night if I was to list all the games Mewtwo is in so I'll just stick to the notable appearances.
Mewtwo, first appeared in the original Red/Blue/Green games being the Legendary Pokemon you catch in Cerulean Cave after you beat all the gym leaders. Back in these days, Mewtwo was easily the most powerful Pokemon having the highest stat totals (680) and being before the introduction of Dark types. He plays the same role in both Fire Red, Leaf Green, Soul Silver, and Heart Gold.

Spoiler: Important Game Roles

In Pokemon Stadium, the final opponent is Mewtwo while in Pokemon stadium 2, your rival uses Mewtwo.

In Pokemon Puzzle League, Mewtwo is the final boss.

In Pokemon Ranger: Guardian Signs, Mewtwo is the final boss.

In Pokemon Black and White, while Mewtwo didn't actually make an appearance, he gained his new signature move, Psystrike.

Pokemon X/Y had Mewtwo in a similar way that Red/Blue/Green had him; stuffed away in some cave. In these games you could access both of Mewtwo's mega evolutions through trading.

He has certainly been shoehorned into a lot of roles in the Pokemon games and thus it's easy for him to stand out. If you see Mewtwo in a game, chances are you're not gonna forget it.

Argument #3: Mega Evolution
Within the entire Pokemon universe only a select few got a mega evolution. Most of the Pokemon who got one were fairly popular pokemon while there were some oddballs like Mega Pinsar. In the case of Mewtwo, he was not only the one to first use and advertise this new feature but he is one of two Pokemon who can utilize two different forms. Now obviously Charizard is probably the most recognizable Pokemon outside of Pikachu but what does this say about Mewtwo? It speak volumes about his popularity and about how the Pokemon company holds the character in high standards. With this, I'm confident saying that Mewtwo is with the top 3 most valuable Pokemon to the company.

Argument #4: Sakurai Looks For Popularity
Sakurai has stated in the past that one of the criteria of being a Smash Bros. character was that you had to make to people want to play them. Even more important than that was in a recent interview and said some things that easily work in Mewtwo's favor. Sakurai stated that they look to the anime and movies which Mewtwo has become in more stongly featured in. Having been in both the latest movie and the Origins special, there is no doubt they would have taken notice.

Spoiler: Sakurai's Quote

"Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company," explained designer Masahiro Sakurai when we put the question to him. "What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front.

"For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.

"But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things."

Argument #5: Popularity
Do I even need to elaborate on this. Almost everybody loves Mewtwo and most of the few who don't are just those who complain about him being too powerful. But that's what we love about him, he's a freaking PSYCHIC GOD! Not to mention that because of the movies, he will be a part most Poke fans hearts. The combination of power, nostalgia and awesome design couldn't yield anything less. Ever since he was cut in Melee, people have been crying their hearts out asking for him to come back and there's a reason why he's the most wanted character to be in Smash again. This isn't an Eastern or Western thing, it's global. There was even a fan during the X and Y Developer Roundtable Conference who asked if Mega Mewtwo would show up in Smash Bros. What was Sakurai's response? "We're thinking about it" -Masahiro Sakurai

Argument #6: Melee
Ever since SSBM, people around the world shocked the heck out of themselves the moment they discovered this guy was in the game. I still remember the excitement I felt when I had just finished a vs mode match and the challenger approaching sign came up. While he may not have been the most competitively sound character, who cared, FREAKING MEWTWO WAS IN SMASH BROS. Of course we would like for him to be buffed this time around but that one appearance gave some people the greatest surprise they'd ever known in the series. People cared so much about this character that Project M remade him just for the purpose of having him back in the main Smash games. With this one appearance, there's no argument that he cant work and there's no argument that it would be hard to come up with a moveset (as if those were arguments anyways). If Sakurai wants to put him in he need only to port his moves and animations over to Smash 4. He's got everything he needs to work with right there. Anything else barring final smash is just extra.

​

Argument #7: Planned for Brawl
Ah, the age old forbidden seven working again to show people how close Mewtwo is. With Brawl's data files, some unused character data was found for 7 different character. Of these, Mewtwo was one of them. Not only that but Mewtwo had the most data. This proves that he was planned to be in Super Smash Bros Brawl and just narrowly missed out.

Argument #8: Reps
After the previous Nintendo Direct, a surge of people began to think that Mewtwo was less likely because Greninja was in the game. What they haven't paid attention to is Sakurai''s comments and subtle hints as to why this doesn't hurt him at all. Many times Sakurai has stated that the roster has 39 characters. Looking at the roster, you only see 35. Yes, this means that Sakurai counts every transformation as a different character. Zero Suit Samus, Charizard, Squirtle, Ivysaur and Sheik all have complete movesets and unique animations that take as long as any non-transformation character to make. All one has to do is look at the dojo and you see that these characters aren't counted as newcomers. They are veterans and rightfully so. From what we've seen of Smash 4, it looks like the other two Pokemon Trainer Pokemon won't be returning. In Brawl we had 6 different playable Pokemon representatives. It's simple math:

6-2+1=5
​

This means that if Jigglypuff returns which is very likely, we'll still be down a rep from brawl. Many people pre-direct were saying that Pokemon could even get up to 8 reps this game and it would be fine. What happened there? We're at potentially 5 (4 as of now) which is less than the previous game and everyone is ready to give up. It's sheer madness.

 

[Deleted member]

Shulk and Mewtwo have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Shulk or Mewtwo, check to see what you’ve said on their days!

Of course… I am going to rate the absolute priority first. I shall rate the Monado Boy once again. He is, after all, my most wanted newcomer. Also, only Shulk is going to get Xenoblade quotes, sorry guys.

Heir to the Monado, Shulk

Chance: THIS IS THE MONADO’S POWER! (80%)
Is it customary to rate Shulk once every month? I know that we are rating him in light of the Direct, but I don’t think that he really needs to be rated.
I made myself clear on Shulk’s last re-rate that I find him to be one of the most likely newcomers that could appear in SSB4. My arguments for Shulk’s appearance still hold up and thus I will be reposting them, however I added new information in some of them to compensate the recent news from the Direct and such.
Now, this post is absolutely gigantic. As a result, I will sum up my post in one to three sentences. If you want more detailed reasoning, then click on the spoilers!
First off, let’s start by listing the negatives.
1. Xenoblade is still a new franchise. However, it’s incredibly unfair to call Shulk “too new” when other characters were more new than him prior to their Smash debuts. Greninja’s confirmation kills these “too new” arguments.

Spoiler

Xenoblade is still a new franchise. This is unfortunately true, though I don’t think that this hurts Shulk’s chances too much. While it definitely doesn’t have the longevity or the notability of Mario or Zelda, Xenoblade is still very well-known and highly praised. One argument that I often hear against Shulk is that he is “too new,” which I find to be as stupid as calling King K. Rool “too big.” Why? Xenoblade came out in 2010 in Japan, and thus you have had 4 years to warm up to Shulk before he could potentially appear in Smash. That time period is actually longer than some vets before their debut appearance in their respective Smash appearances. You know when Pokemon Red and Green (or Blue as it’s called here in America) came out in? 1996. When did the first SSB come out in? 1999. Pokemon to SSB 64 is a shorter time span than Xenoblade to SSB4. If we look at Pichu, Pokemon Gold and Silver were released in 1999, 2 years before Melee. Heck, Lucario only existed for 3 years before his debut in Brawl if we count his initial debut to be Pokemon: Lucario and the Mystery of Mew; Lucario’s game debut was in 2006 with Pokemon Diamond and Pearl and those games were released 2 years before Brawl. Outside of Pokemon, Fire Emblem also follows this case. Ike’s first Fire Emblem game, Path of Radiance, was released in 2005 and Brawl was released in 2008; Path of Radiance was released 3 years before Brawl. Fire Emblem: Awakening came out in 2012 in Japan, that’s two years before SSB4 might be released. Xenoblade Chronicles has been released for a longer time than Awakening, so does that mean that Chrom, Lucina, Robin, and all of the other Awakening characters that people want in Smash are too new as well? A much better example is Roy in Melee; his game was released after Melee, being too new didn’t stop him there. My reasoning for bringing up these characters is to make a point; why should people call Shulk “too new” when other characters were much more new than him in their respective Smash debuts. One major development that helps murder these “too new” arguments is Greninja’s confirmation. Pokemon X and Y came out in October of 2013 and it was confirmed to be playable in April of 2014, months later after its initial debut. This means that Shulk isn’t “too new” for Smash 4 like people are claiming. His series is new, but that doesn’t mean that should prevent his inclusion in SSB4. I just find the notion of Shulk being “too new” to be an absolutely stupid and tasteless argument that I can’t believe that people are using against Shulk.

2. Shulk has only appeared in one game so far. Despite the fact that he could be a one-off, we’ve seen various one-offs in Smash (like Sheik). The X protagonist won’t get in over Shulk as he isn’t demanded and we don’t even know whom he is.

Spoiler

Shulk only appeared in one game. This isn’t detrimental, but it’s still something notable. Maybe Sakurai would think that Shulk doesn’t deserve to get in SSB4 since he only appeared in one game. However, we’ve seen various one-offs in the Smash universe, so I don’t find this to be hurtful towards Shulk. I mean, Lucas has only appeared in Mother 3 and he got in Brawl. Speaking of one-offs, I’ve seen arguments against Shulk saying that he would be a one-off and wouldn’t get in Smash. I disagree with this. Shulk is the first protagonist of Xenoblade and is still a very highly requested character. There is no way that someone from X is going to get in before Shulk, especially when people don’t know who the main protagonist is (we don’t even know the NAME of the main protagonist of X yet!). Sheik is a one-off character from the Zelda universe and she got in Smash; Roy is also a one-off and he got in Melee and people are clamoring for his return. So, I find this to be a weak argument as well.

3. Xenoblade’s sales weren’t the absolute best. While this is true, some franchises represented in Smash didn’t have impressive sales either. Xenoblade’s sales won’t make Sakurai overlook him.

Spoiler

Xenoblade didn’t have the best sales. While sales are important, you have to understand that Xenoblade had a limited release in the US. Copies are scarce and the game was only released in GameStops in the US. I am not so sure how well it sold in other areas, but the game definitely left an impact on those who have played it and haven’t played it. So, I find Xenoblade’s poor sales to be a minor factor in this case. Some series with poor sales are getting represented in Smash; the biggest example here is EarthBound. Heck, even Captain Rainbow is getting some content in Smash. Remember that fat Little Mac trophy? That was from Captain Rainbow, an obscure game that was only released in Japan and it had extremely poor sales. In fact, the sales were so bad that the European port was cancelled! While Xenoblade doesn’t have the best sales in the world, I don’t think that Sakurai will overlook Shulk and Xenoblade at all.

While these things hurt Shulk, I find them to be somewhat minor towards his chances. Why? It’s because there are so many positives to Shulk that they outweigh all of his negatives. This is just the almighty power of the Monado.
1. Monolith Soft has been very active in Nintendo’s latest games, even participating in Brawl’s development. Monolith Soft is also a first party company to Nintendo, meaning the rights to use Shulk and other content from Xenoblade wouldn’t be difficult to get at all.

Spoiler

Monolith Soft has been very active in the development of several Nintendo games. They have worked on games like Animal Crossing: New Leaf, The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, and The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds. One game that they also helped in the development of is Super Smash Bros. Brawl; since Sakurai has worked with Monolith Soft before, he can easily go to them and request to put Shulk in Smash. Maybe even Monolith Soft would like a say and request Sakurai to put Shulk in SSB4. On the topic of Monolith Soft, I must address two quick things. First, Monolith Soft is a first party company; this means that Xenoblade Chronicles is a first party series and Shulk doesn’t face legal issues. The rights to use Shulk can easily be obtained, though I can imagine that Sakurai must ask for permission to use Shulk and any other content from Xenoblade Chronicles. I mention this, as it’s a rather popular misconception since people believe that Shulk is a third party character. Second, Nintendo didn’t buy out Monolith Soft when Xenoblade was released. They owned them prior to that moment. So, those who say that Nintendo bought Monolith after Xenoblade and using that as a point are rather wrong.

2. Sakurai acknowledges Xenoblade and its existence. He might be a fan of it for all we know and the roster was decided when Xenoblade was released in areas outside of Japan.

Spoiler

Speaking of Sakurai, he acknowledges Xenoblade. While he has to have the knowledge of many Nintendo franchises, it’s still nice to see that he is at least aware of Xenoblade and how big this series is. In fact, on his Twitter, he posted a pic of Shulk’s sword, the Monado.

For all we know, Sakurai could be a fan of Xenoblade and would love for the series to get represented in Smash. This definitely helps out Shulk’s case, especially when the time stamp of this pic is during SSB4’s development. For all we know, Sakurai could be a big fan of this game and would love for it to get represented in Smash. Xenoblade being released in other areas when the roster was decided in 2012 helps this home in on this fact. Sakurai may have caught wind of the Xenoblade madness that was going on at the time.

3. Shulk isn’t a generic swordsman; he could be one of the most unique characters in Smash thanks to his sword, the Monado. He would be one of the easiest characters to create a moveset with.

Spoiler

Shulk has uniqueness. We’ve seen all sorts of characters have a unique element to them. Villager has his items, Mega Man has the Robot Master’s weapons and tons of projectiles, Wii Fit Trainer attacks with yoga poses, Rosalina has her Lumas and puppeteer moveset, and Little Mac has his Power Meter and punches. What does Shulk have that could make him unique? The god-slaying sword, the Monado. The Monado is what sets up his uniqueness. I hate how people call him “generic” and that he would be “just another sword user.” It tells me that these people haven’t played Xenoblade, haven’t seen footage of the game, or are using excuses to hate Shulk. The Monado is vastly different than some of the swords that have been seen in Smash. The Monado has its own powers that help separate it from the other weapons that we’ve seen in Smash, thus making the Monado a standout weapon. Shulk has various Monado Arts that he can use in battle. He can use Monado Buster to charge up the attack and this in turn would increase the length of the Monado for his neutral special, use Monado Eater to send out a projectile and that projectile will cause poison damage as his side special, use Monado Speed to recover in his up special, use Monado Shield as a reflector and move around with the move being active as his down special, and use Monado Cyclone to create a massive pillar as his Final Smash. Other than Monado Arts that I’ve mentioned (there are others like Monado Enchant, Monado Armor, and Monado Purge), he has his own Arts like Back Slash, Slit Edge, Shaker Edge, Stream Edge, and Air Slash. Sometimes Sakurai isn’t faithful to some characters, thus Shulk could use Arts from other characters, like Reyn’s Aura Burst or Dunban’s Gale Slash for example, in some of his standard attacks. If Shulk had another gimmick like Little Mac’s Power Meter, it would could a Level Up system where his attacks would become more powerful and level up as Shulk continues to dish out damage at his opponents. Shulk can also have visions, which help him see into the future and prevent something horrible from occurring. However, I have a hard time imagining how the visions can be incorporated in a moveset as the pacing of Smash Bros. is far different than the pacing of Xenoblade. While the Monado is a big sword, it’s nothing like Ike’s sword. Shulk’s speed and weight would be in the middle, unlike Ike who is slow and heavy. Shulk’s play-style could involve prediction, which could be similar in vain to the visions. If you predict your opponent correctly, you could use one of Shulk’s devastating attacks to deal damage or finish off the opponent. If you predict wrongly, you could leave yourself wide open for an attack. I know that Sakurai is having trouble creating movesets for various characters nowadays since there aren’t many characters left who would fit in this environment, but Shulk already has moveset potential and it would be easy for Sakurai to convert Shulk as a fighter.

4. Shulk has absolutely no competition. Isaac is by no means considered competition for Shulk as Isaac could easily get on the roster along with Shulk; it’s absolutely pointless and stupid to say and start arguments that they are. Even if Shulk was competing against the other Rainfall heroes, Zael and Aeron, Shulk blows them away with the critical reception, sales, and popularity Xenoblade garnered.

Spoiler

Competition? That’s non-existent. I have seen some sort of “blond trio” group of Shulk, Isaac, and Saki. The truth of the matter is that neither of these characters even compare to Shulk. Isaac? You can argue that they are fighting to become the quintessential JRPG rep, but I don’t see these two competing and I think that they can both get in. Isaac’s moveset potential comes from his psynergy and seeing some Golden Sun footage for various attacks that Isaac can use, they are nothing like Shulk’s Monado Arts and the regular Arts that other characters can use in Xenoblade. Saki? While he was sadly disconfirmed to return as an Assist Trophy, I must explain why Shulk and Saki arguments are pointless. Saki’s game is an on rails shooter and his uniqueness is set up with projectiles and melee combat from his sword; this sword doesn’t have any sort of mythical powers like the Monado and Xenoblade is a JRPG. This one is by far one of the dumbest of debates. These series aren’t even comparable to Xenoblade right now; Xenoblade is getting time in the limelight, Golden Sun hasn’t been heard from in years, and Sin and Punishment had a revival and was forgotten shortly after. The competition with the other Rainfall heroes is also rather small. Zael’s and Aeron’s respective games did not meet with the same success that Xenoblade did. Xenoblade had better sales and better critical reception than The Last Story and Pandora’s Tower. I can see them get on the roster as DLC characters, but I can’t see them be in direct competition with Shulk. If they are seen as competition, then Shulk has beaten them by a landslide. Zael’s, Aeron’s, and their respective game’s popularity are miniscule compared to the popularity that Shulk and Xenoblade have. I can’t see Shulk have any form of competition to worry about.

5. Nintendo has been acknowledging Xenoblade as of late. The series has an immediate future and Nintendo might push Xenoblade to become something even bigger.

Spoiler

Xenoblade is currently getting recognition. All right, this is a minor point that I have added from my original post, but it’s still something that kind of helps Shulk. You think that Nintendo would want to not mention about the Operation Rainfall games and that they would put those games behind them. However, to my surprise, they are acknowledging and embracing Xenoblade. With Xenoblade getting mentioned in the latest Nintendo Direct and even having its own Puzzle Swap, it shows that Nintendo might push to make Xenoblade something even bigger. With X getting released some time in the future, Xenoblade is sure to have an immediate future. I am unsure if X is a sequel to Xenoblade, but I am confident that it is. In any case, I don’t believe X helps Shulk and I don’t think that he would get in Smash just to promote X. We aren’t even sure if he’s in the game! Regardless, I find that Nintendo acknowledging Xenoblade and giving it credit may affect Sakurai’s decisions.

6. Shulk is one of the most requested characters worldwide. The casual fanbase might not know who Shulk is or what Xenoblade is, but there are already unknown characters to the casual fanbase that are already on the roster in Smash. This is a character that is impossible for Sakurai to ignore.

Spoiler

This is the most important. Shulk has worldwide demand; more specifically his popularity is coming from Japan. People in America and other areas may have not played Xenoblade, but they have at least heard of it and might think that Shulk would be a cool addition in Smash, thus he is still getting requests in those areas. In fact, his Operation Rainfall support is still going strong to this day. It’s critical in Japan as they help Sakurai determine who would be popular picks on the roster. According to Chrono, Shulk is by far one of the most requested characters in that region. Who know who else is? A confirmed Mega Man, a god-tiered requested King K. Rool, and a possibly leaked Palutena. Shulk is also the most requested character that is not from a represented series in Japan. He did have competition for that category in Starfy, but Shulk now dominates it in Japan after when Starfy was confirmed to return as an Assist Trophy. Even in various polls, Shulk has managed to be consistent on the top of numerous lists. Even when these are just polls, want lists, and requests, they add up to hundreds or even thousands of times that Shulk’s name has been mentioned. I’ve heard arguments that Shulk shouldn’t be in Smash Bros. as he is an unknown or obscure character. While newer gamers probably won’t know who he is, he still has the requests and the popularity from Xenoblade to back up his notability. There are characters that we know that others don’t know. One of the biggest examples here is Little Mac; the people in the US were absolutely ecstatic to see him get included while the Japanese viewed him as obscure and as an unknown character. I also recall people in the Daily Miiverse Pics thread say that they have no idea who Captain Rainbow was or what his game is even about when the fat Little Mac pic was shown in a Pic of the Day. Just because Xenoblade and Shulk have relative obscurity among the casual fanbase shouldn’t hurt Shulk by any means, especially when the king of Nintendo obscurity is getting represented in SSB4 in some form. So, calling Shulk too obscure or too unknown for SSB4 is yet another weak argument as Shulk has the fans and the support to help push him into SSB4. Shulk is definitely a character that is impossible for Sakurai to ignore.

Honestly, this is what I think and believe his chances are. I could mention the Monolith Tweet before the Direct or the new Sal Romano leak where Shulk is listed alongside “a Pokemon from X and Y” (Greninja) as being a newcomer in Smash, but these won’t factor into my rating. They are important in regards to possible hinting towards his inclusion, but there is no proof that Shulk is in SSB4, unlike a certain Palutena leak and there wasn’t any sort of “teasing.”
Once again, I am not telling you that Shulk is a shoo-in. Despite this, he is probably one of the strongest contenders that could appear in Smash Bros. The amount of evidence and information that supports his inclusion is absolutely gigantic. It would be a giant surprise if he doesn’t make it in SSB4 at all, whether as a playable character or as an Assist Trophy or in any other form. Shulk is a Nintendo All-Star and is one of Nintendo’s newest uprising children. I believe that Shulk is ready to obtain his spot on the roster.
His chances are strong and his demand is strong. I guess these are reasons why he garnered the nickname, “The Incredible Shulk.”

Want: BEHOLD THE POWER OF THE MONADO! (100%)
What have I said about my want for Shulk that hasn’t already been said?
I want him in Smash. I think that he would be a fantastic addition to the roster! Xenoblade is an amazing game and it warrants representation in Smash. It has amazing atmosphere, music, gameplay, story, characters, a battle system that isn’t stressful, an incredible sense of exploration, and so many other things. It’s just a shame that not many people have played it. If this game isn’t represented, then that would be an absolute crime.
As for Shulk himself, he is within my top 10 video game characters of all-time. The Monado is cool; Shulk is cool. What I like about Shulk is that he isn’t a stereotypical RPG hero. He doesn’t go all-out and use ferocity to overcome his problems; he is all about the brain, not the brawn. He thinks his battles through and he strikes when necessary. Some of the things that he experienced in Xenoblade are some things that I can relate to on a personal level… but I rather not get into that.
Over time, I realized that Shulk is my most wanted newcomer. In fact, I want him more than I ever wanted Little Mac. If Little Mac weren’t confirmed, Little Mac would be my second most wanted newcomer while Shulk would be my most wanted newcomer.
This is a character that I will most likely main if he gets confirmed. If he gets in Smash, I would just rocket to the moon and back! Yes! I would be that excited! Heck, things like that Monolith Tweet and the Monado pic have made me jump out of my chair!
I am seriously hoping that we see him at E3… or we at least get some Xenoblade news in a Pic of the Day before E3.
I just hope that we will behold the power of the Monado in Smash! Hopefully this Vision of Shulk getting in Smash will come true! Please make it true! Please let everyone know his name!

I just want to say that I am sorry if I am annoying you right now with these arguments and such. But… if this didn’t show you how much I love Xenoblade and how much I want Shulk in Smash, then I don’t know what will.

Mewtwo
Chance: 40%
As I’ve mentioned on Greninja’s Satisfaction, Mewtwo was hurt because of Greninja’s reveal.
There are a lot of things going for Mewtwo, such as having two Mega Evolutions (a trait Mewtwo and Charizard share), it is a Melee veteran, and it is the most wanted character worldwide. This is obviously a character that Sakurai cannot ignore!
However, there is some room for doubt. While there were 6 playable Pokémon in Brawl, Pokémon still had four slots like Mario. I believe that if a series gets 6 slots, it’s going to be Mario first, not Pokémon. As a result, I think that Mewtwo and Jigglypuff have to compete against each other. Mewtwo is, again, the most wanted newcomer worldwide and people even believe that Mewtwo’s absence was a travesty. On the other hand, Jigglypuff is a three-time veteran, which only eleven other characters have a claim to that. Believe it or not, Jigglypuff has power within the community. People love Jigglypuff and its inclusion in Smash; I had a roster that cut Jigglypuff for Mewtwo and people questioned why I removed her from my roster. Cutting Jigglypuff for Mewtwo is easier said then done; she has fans and she has power. Sakurai has to think about his decision carefully.
It really is a competition between these two for the final slot. One group of people will bound up being disappointed in the end.
I can see a scenario where we will get both Mewtwo and Jigglypuff, but I sense that there is room for one more Pokémon.
Want: 100%
I want Mewtwo to return. It is such a deserving Pokémon and its exclusion in Brawl was mind-boggling. It’s understandable because of the time constraints and so that Sonic could be added, but it’s still mind-boggling nonetheless.
I rather prefer Mewtwo to strike back than for Jigglypuff to return, but I want them both back… I just am not confident that we will get both of them.

Mii Prediction: 59.56%
I see the Mii get a slight decrease in its score. People seem to be pessimistic about them after when the Miis were featured in a cage in the Find Mii stage.
Pac-Man Prediction: 67.83%
I’m pretty sure his chances will rise. While people will be doubtful with the Special Flag, people might take the clouds as “evidence” or “hinting” towards Pac-Man getting included in Smash. This shall be interesting.

Looks like I topped my original post from the previous Shulk re-rate. This post currently has 4217 words.

 

[FlynnCL]

Shulk
Chance: 60% -- He's a new character. Sakurai acknowledges the game / Monado. Monolith worked on Brawl.
Want: 60% -- I need to play Xenoblade. I have my copy somewhere...

Mewtwo
Chance: 70% -- Greninja complicates things, but Mewtwo is still the most requested and is extremely popular. X/Y focuses on him.
Want: 90% -- Mewtwo is awesome, and deserves to be in. If slot were an issue, I'd take Mewtwo over Jiggles any day.

"We are thinking about it" - Sakurai

Predictions -- Mii: 40% / Pac-Man: 40%

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Shulk
Chance: 60% -- He's a new character. Sakurai acknowledges the game / Monado. Monolith worked on Brawl.
Want: 60% -- I need to play Xenoblade. I have my copy somewhere...

Mewtwo
Chance: 70% -- Greninja complicates things, but Mewtwo is still the most requested. X/Y focuses on him too. Sakurai acknowledges.
Want: 90% -- Mewtwo is awesome, and deserves to be in. If slot were an issue, I'd take Mewtwo over Jiggles any day.

Predictions -- Mii: 40% / Pac-Man: 40%

Monolith worked on Brawl? Interesting, but where'd you find that info?

Shulk

Chance: 75%
Want: 95%

Mewtwo

Chance: 65%
Want: 30% Eh, I don't really care about him that much...

Predictions:

Mii: 40%
Pac-Man: 45%

 

[FlynnCL]

Monolith worked on Brawl? Interesting, but where'd you find that info?

Apart from being listed in wiki pages. Certain staff from Monolith are in Brawl's credits, such as Yasuyuki Honne and Hirohide Sugiura.

Monolith help develop a lot of Nintendo games. They've even worked on Skyward Sword, A Link Between Worlds, Animal Crossing: New Leaf and Pikmin 3.

 

[lurxy]

Shulk:

Chance: 60% - While he has his supporters, I don't think his franchise is more important than the existing or franchises like Golden Sun or Advance Wars.
Want: 40% - I don't know. He could be another swordsman, he could be very unique but there are many I would like to see in Smash Bros. before he gets in.

Mewtwo:

Chance: 95% - The only thing in Mewtwo's way is the amount of Pokemon characters in Smash Bros. But for a series with more than 700 possible fighters, six characters are okay for me.
Want: 100% - He could be a semi-clone of Lucario and I still would want him in the game. Mewtwo is the best legendary Pokemon that was ever created and with his appereance in Pokemon X and Y he is relevant more than ever.

Predictions:

Pacman: 65%
Mii: 55%

 

[YoshiandToad]

I would like to present a piece of evidence that is more important than you may realize:

XC has a collectible Puzzle Panel on 3DS. No other niche series in Nintendo's vast repertoire can claim that. The rest of the puzzles are 3DS games, or if Wii or Wii U games, they are Mario, Kirby, Donkey Kong, The Legend of Zelda, and Metroid related. There are roughly 40 million 3DS owners who will be exposed to this collectible puzzle piece through StreetPass and SpotPass. They may never play it, but they have heard of it now, which is more than you can say for a couple of series with playable characters.

Don't want to take the wind out of your sails, but...Xenoblade isn't the only niche title with a panel in Puzzle Swap; Dillon's Rolling Western also has a panel. As does Rhythm Heaven.

 

[foolssigma]

Shulk:
Chances - 85%

After reading Brawler's post I think most of this will sound redundant, but I'll share some of my thoughts anyway.

With Monolith now first party and the impending release of X, supposedly this year, Nintendo is going to want the series to succeed. X will be the hardcore draw right up there with Smash Bros and whatever other secrets Nintendo has for the holidays later this year. Xenoblade may be niche now, but Smash 4 is being used as a marketing tool more than previous installments. The wise decision would be to implement Xenoblade music, items, stages, and of course Shulk to raise interest in their growing franchise. Xenoblade aimed high on the Wii and X will likely aim even higher. In a sense, Monolith and their upcoming JRPG may be more important to Nintendo than we realize when it comes to keeping fans interested and convincing others to buy the console.

The recency argument no longer holds any water. It never did, but now Greninja truly proves that. Modern characters, franchises, and iterations seem to be taking center stage in this version of Smash. Shulk is a likely way to continue that trend, especially since he has a new game coming out.

There's no way the protagonist of X, who has little to no information on them, will be in Smash. Shulk could be the protagonist for all we know and I'm fairly certain he appeared at the end of the first trailer.

For people who do not know Shulk, he is not a generic JRPG character with a sword. For this point I suggest scrolling up to Brawler's post. Plus, the british accent is awesome.

Monolith is sure to pull back the curtain on X at E3. We'll learn the name, the back story, the premise, the characters, etc. I think Shulk can be revealed at the event to build hype for X and Smash at the same time. Nintendo needs all the help they can get and thankfully Shulk is also popular.

I don't typically buy into leaks, but the Sal leak boosted my % by a few points. His source is accurate thus far, but we'll see how things go come E3/release.

Shulk isn't well known to casuals, but isn't Smash supposed to appeal to both crowds. There have been a good quantity of newcomers appealing to that audience, with more likely, so Sakurai needs a few to appeal to the more hardcore fans, which would be Shulk among others. Even if you don't know Shulk, his trailer could easily be the most epic reveal. Well that last sentence may have been a tad biased.

Want: 100%

Most wanted newcomer. One of my all time favorite games. I really have no complaints and love the characters, music, story, atmosphere, tone, etc.

I can keep going, but I have to run to class. I may edit this later since I think I forgot one or two things I wanted to say.

Mewtwo:

33% chance

Mewtwo hasn't been in since Melee. Considering he was cut from Brawl, I doubt he will be returning to Smash 4. Some may argue his code is found in the game, but I don't think that really benefits him going into the new game.

Popularity is on his side, but it is also on Ridley and K Rool's, two characters whose fates have yet to be confirmed outside of subtle clues and hints.

I also do not think the Greninja reveal was teasing Mewtwo. The Pokemon people I spoke to said it was obvious it was Greninja.

I can see him getting in and I wouldn't mind it, I just don't see it likely happening.

Want: 20% I'm not much of a Pokemon person anymore. I didn't even know who Greninja was.

 

[Leafeon523]

Shulk:
Chance: 69%. Because everyone else has really cool arguments when making long lists If he didn't appear in the gematsu leak, this would be no higher than 35%
Want: 90%. Him being in ssb4 means more copies of Xenoblade get put into circulation. Maybe I'll finally get one!
Mewtwo:
Chance: 80%. Not much else to say.
Want: 70%. As long as jigs still get in, I'll be happy to see him.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Shulk Chance: 95% Since Salromano basically clarified that he's in the game, I truly believe he is playable.
Shulk Want: 100% I think I stated my want too many times before.

Mewtwo Chance: 95% I strongly disagree with people who say Mewtwo has a low chance, he has been hinted before, he already has the merits to come back as playable, I don't even like him, yet I still think he's coming back.
Mewtwo Want: 100%

 

[FalKoopa]

Shulk: 55%
He's a likely candidate, is unique, and was from a highly acclaimed game to boot. That said, I think he does have very real chance of turning into an Assist Trophy.

Want: 45%
Eh. While I have no animosity against the character, the Isaac-Shulk wars have soured me quite a bit about his inclusion.

Mewtwo: 99%
I have a very hard time seeing him getting passed on. Gen VI has gotten a ton of content, and Mewtwo is practically the face of Gen VI.

Want: 100%
Of course. He's a perfectly deserving character and should be in.

 

[Smasher 101]

Shulk's chances: 75% - Pretty sure this is the same score I've given him the past two times and I have no reason to change it.
Want: 30% - Mehhhhhhh.

Mewtwo's chances: 65% - So much for being a shoe-in! If there's only one more Pokemon it's between him and Jigglypuff (Squirtle and Ivysaur are pretty much done IMO and I don't see them putting in TWO Pokemon newcomers over Jiggs and/or Mewtwo), and I think Jigglypuff has a slight edge, but I could still see Mewtwo get the last spot instead. I don't find the chances of both being in incredibly likely, but it's definitely possible.
Want: 50% - I no longer care.

Pac-Man prediction: 78.46%
Mii prediction: 60.59%

 

[Keeshu]

Shulk Chance: ??% - I haven't played the game so I don't know much about the character or his series. Other than he has some cool sword that can shoot stuff called the monado, and some huge spoiler at the end of the game about Shulk (or at least I think it's supposed to be a mind blow with the way it's worded). Though if I had to rate Shulk based on the little info I have, it'd have to be around 60%, since people always say good things about it. Though I don't see anything special about it from random gameplay clips, looks like a regular RPG, and no one ever seems to bother moving out of the way of attacks.
Shulk Want: 75% - Dat sword, I love it, that's the main reason really. It has a decent design (though looks a little too wide for my tastes is the only problem), and it can shoot stuff/do other magical stuff. Also, another major reason is to have an excuse to have some of that rockin music from Xenoblade. As for Shulk himself, his outfit is pretty nice overall, just it seems a bit too busy and it has randomly exposed shins (at least it's not the knees). Anime pretty boy face knocks down my want a little, but at least it's better than Marth's anime pretty boy face and he has a slightly better hairstyle. As for personality, I'd have to watch a bunch of gameplay to decide, but he seems like a goodie goodie two shoes from his battle quotes, though it seems he's after revenge so he's probably not as bad as Pit when it comes to being too good (Pits an Angel so it makes sense for him though).

Mewtwo Chance: 80% - The only reason why he's not 100% is that he was cut from brawl. Which worries me greatly. I don't think Greninja lowered Mewtwo's chances at all, he's nothing like Mewtwo. Charizard going solo makes Mewtwo very likely as well.
Mewtwo Want: 85% - I just really want to see Mewtwo's revenge. He needs some proper moveset, and SSB4 seems to be the game to switch everyone's moves around too. I'll be happy with him as long as he is more psychic based instead of punching + whacking things with his tail.

 

[Cpt.]

Mewtwo

Chance: 90%
Want: all my want boi E

Shulk

Chance: 75%
Want: 55%

 

[dezeray112]

Mewtwo
Chance - 50% - I really don't know. He may or may not be in. But I do believe that they can possibly fit in at least one or even two more Pokemon reps in there.
Want - 75%

Shulk
Chance - 75%
Want - 75%

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Mewtwo

Chance 95%
I'm very confident that he's returning and all because of the greninja trailer everyone suddenly wen't paranoia to think this hurted mewtwo

1# the hints from before the biggest being they guy who asked how about mewtwo in ssb4 nobody talked but then a few seconds later sakurai the leader said we are considering it. The second biggest is mewtwo mean't for brawl and was almost finished but cut due to time contracts

2# 1 big key to the paranoia is because of pokemon slots taken from the greninja trailer we have 4 so far charizard boosts mewtwos chance because its almost a no brainer that squirtle and ivysaur will be cut (2 water starters is too much greninja replaces squirtle obviously) (and ivysaur is probably going to get replaced by mewtwo) and jigglypuff survives as well

3# the trailer also hinted mewtwo because we all thought greninja was mewtwo so sakurai teased him and gamexplain pointed out every single pokemon that appeared in the trailer they did not say the word mewtwo but we did get mew

4# the megas don't hurt him either because unlike the land masters in brawl the mega forms of each pokemon have 100% different moves (ps for lucarios to proove its a final smash warios and giga bowsers final smashes lighten the screen again while in there final smash forms)

5# sakurai is making smash bros 4 with fans requests (not demands) besides ridley hinted for boss and not playable (though evidence looks like another troll) most of the stuff shown is stuff fans would really really love

6# easily the most popular pokemon

7# oh one more thing I think the reason sakurai did a prank for us to think greninja is mewtwo is I think he's saved for E3 since its a bigger event than the smash direct.

Want 1,000,000%
I loved him from the very begining which is from the worlds first pokemon movie


Shulk

Chance 75%

It's looking very well for him sals leak helps because it's connected to the E3 leak and we got 4 out of 6 confirmed and the sal leak mentions something about a pokemon from x and y is playable and look greninja is a pokemon from x and y and he/she is playable (genders) (ps also hints palutena and a python heaven character)

Want 90%

I would love shulk to be playable despite me never playing a xenoblade game

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Shulk's chances: 100% no doubt
Want: 100%

Mewtwo's chances: 0%
This is coming from someone who wants him in 100%! It doesn't matter that I want Mewtwo in so badly, he never came to brawl, and he's never coming again!

 

[Sid-cada]

Shulk

Chance - 60% - Outside of being potentially leaked (which I'm not certain in believing), I don't think anything has happened to change my vote.

Want - 50% - Even after some research, I don't think that he offers anything of interest to me.


Mewtwo

Chance - 90% - Just some hesitation due to Gredninja's reveal. The unexpected happened, so my faith has been shaken a bit. Still view him as quite likely, though.

Want - 95% - Yep. Want him back, so that others can rejoice over his de-cut status.


Predictions

Pac-Man - 85.42% - Those objects would certainty point to his inclusion to some.

Miis - 70% - I have no clue, so just tossing this out.

 

[Deleted member]

Shulk

50% Chance: I gave him a much higher chance rating the last time. I honestly just feel it's a coin flip at this point if Shulk gets in or not, because the series is not super popular and Sakurai could instead choose to represent Golden Sun (Isaac) or Advance Wars (Andy), I doubt he'd give this same treatment to multiple B-tier characters.

Shulk may be popular in Japan, but Sakurai has shown by adding Little Mac that Western popularity is just as important and Shulk is not that well-known in the West. I'd be more confident about his chances if he'd been around longer. Xenoblade just came out last generation and it feels a bit too soon for it to get a rep, considering the two aforementioned, unrepresented classics.

60% Want: Just a tiny dip from my last want score, as little has changed in his this respect. I still don't like the character all that much, he's a cookie cutter protagonist much in the same vein as Andy who benefits largely from his game. On his own merits, Shulk isn't going to hold my interest. However, Xenoblade is a fantastic game for the most part, and for Smash, Shulk is the most fitting character.

Mewtwo

80% Chance: I don't think Greninja affects his chances, as Ivysaur and Squirtle were too all but confirmed cut. This opens up the Pokemon slots on the roster considerably - Jigglypuff would take one of those two cut places, although I don't believe she factors into the equation. That leaves at least one spot for Mewtwo, or potentially another Pokemon newcomer. I can easily see 7 Pokemon characters happen, if it's a big enough roster. However it goes, it's likely Mewtwo will take up one of the last 1-2 spots.

My only doubt remains in the fact that Mewtwo needs a severe face-lift from Melee and who knows the inner workings of The Pokemon Company. Even though Mewtwo is extremely popular to this day and used in movies, games, everything, they may not want to put him in Smash Bros as he's not "relevant" to their new line-up of Pokemon. That would leave it in Sakurai's hands, who is far harder to predict. Considering he put in Red last time, he may add something just as over-the-top.

Mewtwo's popularity really precedes him, though, so I can imagine Sakurai would add him whether or not he got approval from The Pokemon Company. What's most important here is that, due to his relevance to even X/Y, no one is going to object to his inclusion. There would have to be a lot of dancing around the popularity of the character to stop him getting in after Brawl's notable backlash.

100% Want: The only realistic Pokemon character I remotely care about. Meowth is confirmed a cut, Jigglypuff is practically a lock and I couldn't care less about gen six or other "relevant" Pokemon. After K. Rool, a redone Mewtwo is possibly my second most wanted 'newcomer.' I never played as Mewtwo in Melee, but it'd be a crime to not give the character justice on top of ignoring all the fans.

There's also something to be said for the lack of villains in SSB4, it's stupid that a series could have 6-7 characters but no antagonist. You know, in a fighting game, where there's meant to be conflict. Can't always just have a friendly battle of fedoras between Lucario and Greninja - Mewtwo is actually a decent character and nothing like him is on the cards. He's a fairly unique villain and nothing like him exists on the roster, besides Lucario's Aura Sphere move, a whole one input. He'd perfectly represent psychics and gen 1.

Pac-Man: 80%
Not going to predict too high on this one, but the Special Flag and other hints at a Namco third-party remain strong.

Mii: 55%
Hard to stomach that users find the lack of an icon, the caged Mii and other hints at no Mii a plus, but they do.

 

[Wyoming]

Shulk:

Chance - 60% - A fan favourite and Xenoblade is a modern Nintendo series that could easily be represented.
Want - 50% - Mostly because lots of people him. I don't mind either way.

Mewtwo:

Chance - 50% - Uncertain over him, always have been. I'm always wondering if Sakurai is willing to bring back any of the cut Melee fighters. But if he brings back anyone, it's Mewtwo.
Want - 70% - Mostly due to the fact he's a cut Melee character.

 

[YT123]

Shulk
Chance: 85%
He is pretty popular in Japan, pretty much the only new first party main character since Brawl and has a lot of potential.
Want: 100%
Xenoblade is my favorite Wii game and I think it deserves some recognition in Smash!

Mewtwo
Chance: 59%
He seems likely, but with Sakurai's randomness in mind I'm not entirely sure whether he's going to make it.
Want: 85%
I really like Mewtwo in Project M, so I can't wait to try him out in Smash 4 if he makes the cut!

 

[colder_than_ice]

The popularity chart has been updated.

Shulk
Chance: 73% - The same rating I gave him last time. I stand by my view that he's one of the most likely newcomers, all signs seem to point to him being playable. He's the star of one of Nintendo's best received games in the past few years. He has lots of potential to be unique. He has lot's of popularity in Japan where popularity matters a little more, Little Mac should probably be viewed as the exception not the rule.
Want: 89% - One of my most wanted newcomers.

Mewtwo
Chance: 70% - He's very popular and has been highly promoted in XY, but Sakurai has cut him before.
Want: 87% - Just add my name to the long list of generic Mewtwo supporters already.

 

[BKupa666]

Funny, K. Rool was the one singled out for being overrated, and yet it's the two Kongs who experience sizable drops in chance ratings once the curtains closed on their moment in the spotlight.

Shulk:

Chance - 75%
The Sal leak, plus a moderate international fanbase.

Want - 50%
Do not care about one way or the other.

Mewtwo:

Chance - 99%
People are dense with regard to Pokemon "taking each other's slots." A vaguely similar NSpec in his Melee moveset (that we're not even sure is returning) to Lucario/Greninja certainly won't hold him back, when other characters have far more similar moves in their arsenals...for example, half the cast having a spinning N-Air, or having a fast projectile for NSpec. That's a downright Miiverse caliber argument. Oh, and neither will "Pokemon and Mario must have exactly the same number of 'slots' so I can sleep better at night!" Enough with the OCD already. Yeah, so all of his positive factors have probably already been listed by now, so I won't bother being repetitive here.

Want - 75%
Was never a favorite of mine in Melee, but he absolutely deserves in to make up for the f***-up that was his removal.

Predictions:
Mii - 78.65% (blegh)
Pacman - 75.67%