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Since it's a Sunday, I probably wouldn't have updated anyway, but the fact that my first AP Test of the season is bright and early tomorrow morning solidifies the no-update for tonight. Smell ya tomorrow!
Two isn't much of a pattern though.
Also, who is the popular one out of Mr. Game & Watch and Ice Climbers? I don't think either one was a popular choice at the time.
I think this has more to do with people assuming that a couple retro characters are a given and looking for who they would want to fill those slots. If people weren't already assuming that we would be getting retro characters, I think there'd be a lot less people talking or caring about them. A lot of them became forgotten characters for a reason. Some of them might be considered cool ideas without this factor. Takamaru has samurai appeal... IMO Duck Hunt Dog would have almost no fans at all if people didn't think that Sakurai "has to" add a retro, preferably a wacky one. It also seems like American fans of Japanese exclusives are pretty much caused by this phenomenon of trawling for retros IMO.
But I don't think he has to have one. I think he'll add a couple retros if they're appealing enough... but it's possible he won't find any of them, or at least not two of them, appealing enough. That is, he may be on the lookout for a retro candidate, but I don't think he'll put in a retro for the sake of having a retro.
Little Mac has had a decent amount of retro flavor with his artwork and the wire-frame costume, etc...
That's what I meant by this not being an explanation. I think that a huge roster is unlikely, therefore their chances would add up to less than that for me. That's not evidence, it just is consistent with my differing opinion.
My evidence is that Sakurai himself said he would not be emphasizing increasing the roster size... and that suggests that we should expecting AT THE HIGH END the kind of increase we saw in the previous two installments. And that kind of increase gets us to 50 characters... meaning 50+ characters should be towards the high end, thus unlikely.
My evidence isn't based on looking at the characters, because:
1. the two things are related. You give higher scores to characters because you think a large roster is likely, and you say a large roster is likely because you give higher scores to characters. But if you thought a smaller roster size was more likely, you would think there's more competition between those characters and thus lower their scores (hence why my scores are consistently lower).
2. we saw that during Brawl speculation people think every character is plausible, every character could be cool, and so they massively overrated them. I mean, why wouldn't he put in Tom Nook, or Krystal, or Ridley, or Vaati, or Black Shadow, Toad, Isaac, King K Rool, Geno, Wolf Link? They're all cool, right? Those were all characters that the Brawl predictions rated about 50%! But they essentially predicted an 80+ character roster because they didn't adjust their scores realistically to reflect the number of slots that were realistically available. They weren't even close! Even if they had thought that a significantly larger increase than Melee was likely, like a 20 character increase, they still overestimated by 25-30 characters. This shows me that people are bad at considering these things at an individual basis. However, their predictions weren't that bad... if you adjusted them to match a realistic roster size.
3. Less importantly, since I know people will dismiss this as black magic, and this actually is higher than what I think it will be, but my sales-based model predicts something like 44-50 slots, excluding 3rd parties. It basically predicts no series size cuts (it thinks Star Fox, Pokemon and Earthbound are the only ones with much likelihood to get fewer characters). Adding in 3rd parties would make that like 46-54 slots, so based on that, 50+ slots should still only be about 50%...
But it also doesn't know anything about the candidates and gives negative scores to some series. So it gives G&W, Ice Climbers and ROB chances of getting newcomers, despite that being basically impossible. IMO, it also greatly overestimates Wario (not knowing that Wario is really the only big character), Yoshi (not knowing that it overlaps significantly with Mario), Pikmin (not knowing that other candidates are extremely similar to Olimar), and F-Zero (not knowing the series is dead). After correcting for these things and adding in 3rd parties, we get an estimate of 45-52 slots, which seems about right to me.
I think the evidence should be based on the roster sizes of the previous Smash games and Sakurai's comments specifically relevant to the overall roster size, not on your thoughts about individual characters which are colored by your thoughts about roster size in the first place.
But people thought that with Brawl as well. And then the roster came in at half the size they predicted.
And Sakurai skipped over a lot of deserving characters for Melee and Brawl. Diddy, Dedede, Meta Knight and Wario were skipped for Melee. Mewtwo, Toad, Isaac, Little Mac, Animal Crossing, Ridley, Dixie/K Rool, Krystal, etc. were skipped for Brawl.
He will probably skip over a lot of characters people "couldn't see him skipping out on" again. He's not going to please everyone. Better to be prepared for that than to make your expectations sky-high.
For 1-49... do you doubt any of those characters?1. Mario: 100%
2. Luigi: 100%
3. Peach: 100%
4. Bowser: 100%
5. Rosalina: 100%
6. DK: 100%
7. Diddy: 100%
8. A DK Newcomer: 99%
9. Yoshi: 100%
10. Wario: 100%
11. Link: 100%
12. Zelda: 100%
13. Sheik: 100%
14. Ganondorf: 100%
15. Toon Link: 100%
16. Pit: 100%
17. Palutena: 99%
18. Samus: 100%
19. Zero Suit Samus: 100%
20. Kirby: 100%
21. Dedede: 100%
22. Meta Knight: 100%
23. Fox: 100%
24. Falco: 95%
25. Wolf: 80%
26. Pikachu: 100%
27. Charizard: 100%
28. Lucario: 100%
29. Greninja: 100%
30. Jigglypuff: 90%
31. Mewtwo: 80%
32. Marth: 100%
33. Ike: 75%
34. FE newcomer + return from Melee: 99%
35. Olimar: 100%
36. Ness: 99%
37. Lucas: 75%
38. Little Mac: 100%
39. Retro newcomer: 100%
40. Shulk: 85%
41. Villager: 100%
42. Wii Fit Trainer: 100%
43. Ice Climbers: 99%
44. Mr. Game & Watch: 100%
45. R.O.B.: 90%
46. Captain Falcon: 100%
47. Sonic: 100%
48. Mega Man: 100%
49. Pac-Man (or other Namco character) : 95%
50. Now, a bunch of characters could fill this last spot:
Ghirahim (or other Zelda newcomer) : 65%
Bowser Jr (or other Mario newcomer) : 70%
Ridley: 50%
Isaac: 60%
Snake: 50%
Chorus Kids: 40%
A 2nd Retro Newcomer: 60%
A 2nd DK Newcomer: 55%
Would you mind editing this into easier to read paragraphs? I'm interested in what you're saying but it's really quite difficult without the breaks and gaps.I'd get a much better perspective on your views towards this if i saw your roster, but this isn't the kind of thread for that, so look at this:
For 1-49... do you doubt any of those characters?
I don't see why you'd doubt a DK newcomer, it's unarguably underrepresented, and has had 2 recent games that from what I've heard, sold pretty well. So if you base newcomers off of sales, or even popularity, as both K Rool and Dixie are in the top 15 most requested characters (at least top 15). And being among the few very iconic Nintendo characters left, there's even the possibility of both.
I don't see how you could doubt Palutena. And I don't think I have to explain that.
Do you doubt some of those veterans? If so, which and why? I didn't even include Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake in the 1-49, as they are the less likely of the 40 veterans of Brawl + Mewtwo.
Do you doubt a FE newcomer? Even though the series was supposed to get 3 in Brawl and has a full new set of likeable, recent characters in Awakening, which sold better than any other FE game? If the series could potentially deserve 3 in Brawl, and has now become a bigger deal, and now has many viable options, some more popular, some more unique, I have trouble seeing us only getting Marth and Ike. Or just Marth and Chrom. It sounds very unlikely to me. You can compare the total series' sales to Kirby, Starfox, and whichever all you want... but it has 3 characters that are all most likely going to be in. If I didn't know anything about the series except it's sales, I might be assuming it will get only 2 characters. But Marth is very popular, Ike is very popular, Roy is very popular, Chrom is very popular, Lucina is very popular, and Robin is very popular. I'm still not fully convinced we aren't getting 4 from Fire Emblem. I don't think the Fire Emblem series deserves 4 character representation, but I do think that the Fire Emblem series has more than 4 characters that deserve character representation. I don't see newcomers as much as series representatives, as I see them as characters. And that was basically my argument before, summed up into 2 sentences, but of course, most find that unlikely, and [now] I wouldn't give it over a 55% chance if we ever rated that, so I didn't put it in the 1-49, just 1, which I'm 99% sure is happening. And I still believe that if Sakurai finds none of the Awakening characters appealing, he'll just turn back to the fan-favorite Roy and Luigi-fy him for another FE character. I don't think it's very likely, but I find it more likely than just sticking with Mario and Ike.
So, at this point, if you consider Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake unlikely, but you agree the rest of the veterans are coming back + Mewtwo, plus the confirmed 6 and the 3 newcomers mentioned so far being 1 from DK, Palutena, and 1 from Fire Emblem... that adds up to 46.
It's at this point that I'd like to remind you that it is unlikely that there is a pre-determined amount of roster-slots. When they decide the roster, they decide the characters. It's also when I'd like to include that if we get less than 50, it will be the lowest increase in Smash history, on the game with the largest development team and development time, I believe. Which doesn't make much sense to me when there is no Subspace Emissary to conflict with how they use their time and resources.
Ok, 46.
Do you doubt Pac-Man at all? If you do, say why. I can't see him not getting in at this point. Too many things pointing to his inclusion, just like Palutena. And if you're going to tell me that a Sakurai quote means less characters, well, he also said Namco characters won't be getting special treatment, and a Namco assist summoner being the S-Flag sure sounds like special treatment to me. He also said Zero Samus was cut, look what happened. And that Animal Crossing characters were too cute for Smash, look what happened. Ok, I'm straying from the point. And while I don't heavily consider much of what I hear Sakurai has said, it was also said I think at E3. And it wouldn't really be possible to know if time constraints were going to be an issue at that point. So, I just disregard it, honestly.
That's 47.
Now I see you said you doubted a Retro newcomer partly because of Little Mac and his alt costume.
But I just can't call him a retro even if I try, because I can't get past the fact that his design is the Punch Out Wii version, with many references to that game, most notably his Final Smash. I mean, I wouldn't call Mario a retro veteran if he gets references to past games in his moveset, or an alt costume of a retro version of him.
And like you said, they may not add a retro character just to add a retro character, and it's usually my view that it's the character that matters, but it seems different with retros, however, I can't fully explain why, so I'll go with something else. I think that, out of the large cast of many, many retro Nintendo characters, Sakurai will find at least just 1 that appeals to him. The fact that the amount of choices is so high makes me doubt he'll completely reject them all. There's a good amount of popular choices, many unique choices, and some that could represent their history very well... I think it's a definite, but since you already said you thought it wasn't, I won't count it.
And I'm going to be including Shulk in the next part of this post:
So to reach 50, there would need to be 3 more characters. Now, if you think that we won't get at least 50, 49 is the highest possibility so do you think that only 2 of these will make it?: Shulk, Isaac, Snake, Ridley, Takamaru, Mii, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, Lip, Wonder Red, Captain Rainbow, Excitebiker, Ray, Chibi Robo, a 6th Mario character, a 4th DK character, a 6th Zelda character, a 3rd retro newcomer, another WTF character, any other retro, any other character from a new series, any of the remaining assist from Brawl not yet mentioned
This is where things get a bit uncertain. But I feel pretty confident in Shulk, Isaac, Ridley, a Retro newcomer, a 6th Mario character, and a 6th Zelda character.
If you fully believe the Gematsu leak is real, and that the only cuts from Brawl will be Squirtle and Ivysaur, that's 48 characters already. So even if you don't think Snake is returning, is Sakurai really going to skip out on the 3 most requested characters? Mewtwo, K Rool, and Ridley (and Snake not returning) would add up to 50.
Once again, I really think it would be easier to understand your perspective on this if you at least made a list on what you think has the best chance of being the final roster. I know characters have been considered likely in the past and haven't made it, and people have over-estimated the roster size in the past by a lot, but I think there are a # of certain characters and types of characters that need to be added, and altogether would make a number 50 or greater. So since this post was mostly just a repeat of my past posts, could you reply with that?
No, you only get 10 if your prediction is the closest to the actual score. Your name will appear in the second post on the first page when you win extra nominations.Nominations: Since I predicted yesterday, I think I have x10 now?
Welcome to the boards! It's an honour when someone chooses this thread to make their first post.Chrom AT:Chance: 0%
Won't happen, he'll be an alt skin before this happens, and that's almost impossible to
Want: 20%
Don't really want him playable, but he'd be a bland assist to
50+ Roster: Chance: 100%
Will happen, no question in my mind
Want: 100%
Who wouldn't want this?
Predictions: Sceptile: 17.5%
Mach Rider: 6%
I've lurked for ages, finally decided to post on a whim XDWelcome to the boards! It's an honour when someone chooses this thread to make their first post.
First of all, you didn't give all of them 100%. So you yourself doubt them.For 1-49... do you doubt any of those characters?
I never thought there was a pre-determined roster size. But if Sakurai says that he doesn't just want to do the same thing and just add characters, yada yada, it suggests to me that we should be getting the smallest increase. Or at best, the same amount of increase as before. The same increase as before would put us at 52 or 53 slots... Him saying that and then giving us the biggest increase ever seems unlikely to me, so I think of that as being a fairly hard limit. Maybe he will surprise me, it's possible! I would probably welcome the surprise. But I doubt it will happen (hence why it would be a surprise).It's at this point that I'd like to remind you that it is unlikely that there is a pre-determined amount of roster-slots. When they decide the roster, they decide the characters. It's also when I'd like to include that if we get less than 50, it will be the lowest increase in Smash history, on the game with the largest development team and development time, I believe.
I give Pac-Man a high probability, just not as high as you.Do you doubt Pac-Man at all? If you do, say why. I can't see him not getting in at this point. Too many things pointing to his inclusion,
That wasn't my main point though. My point was that people are assuming we have to have retros, probably two of them, on the basis of only two games. From his statements, we know Sakurai likes to include them, and he might include one or even two. But I don't think he will include a retro for the sake of including a retro.Now I see you said you doubted a Retro newcomer partly because of Little Mac and his alt costume.
Well, we could get more than two of those without getting 50 characters, for one. For another, I rate a lot of these much much lower than you do. Like Wonder Red I think is like 0.01%. I don't think he is going to happen, at all.so do you think that only 2 of these will make it?: Shulk, Isaac, Snake, Ridley, Takamaru, Mii, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, Lip, Wonder Red, Captain Rainbow, Excitebiker, Ray, Chibi Robo, a 6th Mario character, a 4th DK character, a 6th Zelda character, a 3rd retro newcomer, another WTF character, any other retro, any other character from a new series, any of the remaining assist from Brawl not yet mentioned
I don't fully believe the leak, and I don't think we'll necessarily only lose Squirtle, Ivysaur and maybe Snake. You yourself don't believe that, otherwise you wouldn't have given Lucas a 75% chance rather than a 100% chance. I also think that the Gematsu leak hurts the chances of characters outside of it.If you fully believe the Gematsu leak is real, and that the only cuts from Brawl will be Squirtle and Ivysaur, that's 48 characters already.
He skipped out on them before. He skipped out on them and Mega Man and earlier he skipped out on Diddy Kong, Wario, Dedede and Meta Knight. Even if we include the Forbidden 7 in consideration, he would've skipped out on K Rool and Ridley even if Brawl had had a 46 character roster.So even if you don't think Snake is returning, is Sakurai really going to skip out on the 3 most requested characters? Mewtwo, K Rool, and Ridley (and Snake not returning) would add up to 50.
Make most of the adjustments I've said and the chances will work out roughly like I said.Once again, I really think it would be easier to understand your perspective on this if you at least made a list on what you think has the best chance of being the final roster.
welcome to the boards mate,Hm
Chrom AT: 3%
Either he's in or he's out. No reason to make him an assist trophy. Plus he is one of the most bland possible options for an assist trophy, with no real outstanding traits or features to make it entertaining. Copy/Paste everything you guys have already said.
Want: 0%. It's pointless.
50+ Roster: 70%
Really nothing left for me to add at this point. Feel there may be even more expansion than expected due to 3rd parties possibly adding up on top of 1st parties.
Want: 100%
I want to get my hands on as many people as possible, as long as its balanced (which I'm sure it will, no matter the size of the roster.) If Sakurai wanted to make a 2,000 character roster that was still balanced, I would be all for it.
You guys pretty much summed this up pretty well.
Maybe you already know this but the roster is decided and locked way ahead of the release (I think it was 2006 for Brawl). An exception for that game was Sonic. Who knows if they did last minute additions to this one, probably not though.Want: 100%. Absolutely not. I want as few characters as possible to get the game sooner.
Pffffft! Who doesn't want over 50 characters?!
First of all, I suspect that you didn't realize how low the chances were for what I calculated though.^I don't have a chance to go through everything you said at the moment (I might later) but there's one thing that stood out to me.
Wouldn't that percentage you calculated on my ratings be the chance I think there will be 50 character roster, but it could only possibly include those (around 55 or 60) characters? I think that score would imply that I think every other videogames character has a 0% chance, and that's not true. There are still many other characters I'd rank from 30 to 10%. And dozens of characters I'd rank at just 1 or 5 %
Which would make a big difference in that score, well, I'm pretty sure it was. I don't think math is the best way to go for this concept, to be accurate, wouldn't every possible characters chance need to be added? Yea, that's a lot. I don't give many 0s.
Greninja.Maybe you already know this but the roster is decided and locked way ahead of the release (I think it was 2006 for Brawl). An exception for that game was Sonic. Who knows if they did last minute additions to this one, probably not though.
Sakurai listens to GameFreak a lot about which Pokemon to include. Greninja has existed since quite a while before the Pokemon X&Y release (since development for that went on a while), I assume, and they wanted to promote him. I find it quite plausible that the roster was finalized in spring 2013 and that Greninja was included.Greninja.
That's all you need to see to know the roster was not locked a long time ago.
I think I'm definitely in the minority here, but I doubt having the Smash Icon as a logo in the Direct means anything at all. Think of it this way: would Sakurai really have shown a Sin and Punishment logo there if Isa were indeed in the game? He didn't reveal the Punch-Out logo on the Boxing Ring, after all.I can't believe I didn't think of him! Saki's assist could boost his chances immensily, but the Smash Bros icon for the assist may deconfirm him! He's definitely worth the rate.
Want scores are all about bias! Pile it on! The main reason they're there is so people can express their biases there while keeping their other score as bias-free as possible.I'm allowed to be biased in my want scores, after all.
Also I considered going for Savvy Stylist (hate that name)... It may not be for you Groose, but Girl's Mode is a hugely popular (and well made/surprisingly fun) franchise.
...just joking! I just wanted to see who actually would read that. I've fixed it this time.Not that I'm going to help nominate or support him or her, but how can Style Savvy be shovelware, Groose? It is actually a first party franchise, and getting as much as an Assist Trophy isn't totally absurd.
I agree with this reasoning. I'm not going to spend my nominations on Venasaur just yet, but I will eventually do so.]
Venusaur x5 ... Well, if Sakurai ISN'T going to cut Ivysaur, how much sense does it make for him to be an out of place MID EVOLUTION? Think about it, it actually kind of makes sense. Not saying that it has a huge chance of happening, but it's there.
I agree entirely. High expectations breed disappointment; low expectations breed joy.You know people, one upside of being pessimistic about the number of characters is if we do get >50 characters, you'll just be very pleasantly surprised!
Yup, Environmental. I think it went over pretty well. How'd you handle things?What AP Test Groose? Chem or Environmental? I'm taking Environmental.
Welcome to Smashboards and to this game! If you need anything, give me a holler!Hm
Chrom AT: 3%
Either he's in or he's out. No reason to make him an assist trophy. Plus he is one of the most bland possible options for an assist trophy, with no real outstanding traits or features to make it entertaining. Copy/Paste everything you guys have already said.
Want: 0%. It's pointless.
50+ Roster: 70%
Really nothing left for me to add at this point. Feel there may be even more expansion than expected due to 3rd parties possibly adding up on top of 1st parties.
Want: 100%
I want to get my hands on as many people as possible, as long as its balanced (which I'm sure it will, no matter the size of the roster.) If Sakurai wanted to make a 2,000 character roster that was still balanced, I would be all for it.
You guys pretty much summed this up pretty well.
You stole my line! Bad moderator!Welcome to the boards! It's an honour when someone chooses this thread to make their first post.
Hmm... Perhaps I should change my want score to 100% if I still have time... After all, with Chrom out of the way, my second most wanted character's chances increase significantly, and it disproves that annoying leak that everyone takes for granted. Two birds with one stone.Want scores are all about bias! Pile it on! The main reason they're there is so people can express their biases there while keeping their other score as bias-free as possible.
Psssttt.... Grooose....Nominations List
x21 Vaati Rerate
x5 Vaati (Legend of Zelda)