PYP Mafia - Game Ova

[#HBC | Ryker]

tailor might affect less but what it does affect it gives us false positives over just not getting a result at all, and id rather have a true nuetral in not getting the result over having a false one.

With a tailor there are no positive or negatives.

Man when does Alex eat dinner

 

[Orboknown]

Ehhhhhh. I guess?

 

[ranmaru]

It is neutral in the scenario that an investigative comes out and we choose to ignore his actions. (Since it's public information) It would be negative if we let the information influence us knowing we gave a SUPER TAILOR.

 

[Xivii]

Can you elaborate on control? I see you mention that quite a bit and I'm confused on it.

By control I mean the ability to invoke action or influence thoughts and decisions. In my eyes, both Witch and Tailor have this aspect.

Zen, why is decoy over tailor on your list?

I actually changed my mind on that over the course of making the post. I think the order I elaborated on them in better reflects my order.

 

[Vult Redux]

Vote Count: 0.1
Tailor [0]:
Detective [1*]: Ryker
Witch [0]:
Poisoner [0]:
Decoy [0]:

Not voting [8]: Maven, Orbo, Gheb, Laundry, Soup, Ryu, Xivii, Ranmaru

With 9 players, it takes 5 votes to hammer.
With the current vote spread, Detective will be hammered at the deadline.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Alex sucks. good night.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

#HBC | Laundry impress me.

Make your idea not stupid. Tell me who's scum. I'm going to bed in 45 min.

You're like the last person I expect to accept it but regardless:

If the Town PR drew the Armor Guard, I want them to claim. This is something that I'd rather have discussion on first but it's ultimately something I'd prefer happen for a few reasons.

Should this be something we agree on happening, there's one of three things that happen:

1) Nobody claims, meaning we don't have the Armor Guard. We're pretty much back at where we started--except we have more information about mafia's choice, giving a better frame of reference for these early game pushes.
2) Armor Guard claims and there's a CC. This is effectively a Comp Cop guilty, but you get it on D1 before any actions even occurred. You have plenty of time to sort it out and build connections on both targets. It's a pretty good launchboard into D1 and helps give town an advantage for the rest of the game.
3) Armor Guard claims and there's no CC. We have what's effectively an Innocent Child on D1 with a free BP that scum have to blow a night shooting through in order to kill it. It gives us a free clear for two whole days to work with while we find the actual scum. That is also a significant advantage with which to start the game if you ask me.

It simplifies the choice of mafia PR as well. If we get no claim, we give the Mafia the Poisoner as it's likely they didn't give us the Double Doc and I do not want to give mafia the tool to either **** a potential investigative (that we have a 2/3 chance of having at that point) or the tool to find it. If we get a claim, give mafia either of the detective or tailor, it really doesn't matter which.

But most importantly, beyond the potential clear or the comp cop guilty, it puts actual weight to people's mafia PR preferences. Until we get a claim or a flip, all of these stances are useless because there's no point of reference to which you can draw back. With a potential Armor Guard claim on the table, suddenly there's perspective that we can use to analyze D0. Even if nobody claims, that still helps narrow down the field of view of what mafia selected to the point that it sheds a bit more light on some of the arguments players were using. It gives town better talking points with which to start D1 instead of saying "well your argument sucked!" There's more weight behind it if you can tack on how people pushing for the tailor seem a lot more sketchy when there's a 2/3 chance that mafia gave us an informative (particularly the comp cop).

That's what I'd like to do. I recognize there's a chance for some disagreement but I'd like to think that, if executed, this plan would put town into as good of a position as possible to start D1.

--

In terms of who I think is scum, I'd probably start by looking at the people pushing Tailor, particularly Gheb/Maven. Maven's argument has me straddling the dumb/scum line hella hard and I'm skeptical as to why Gheb bought it and is pushing for the Tailor so hard. Ruy also pushed for it but I think his arguments fall into the "misguided" category before the "scum pushing a goal" category. I don't think both Gheb/Maven are scum together, so there's another goon out there. After these guys, I'm mostly PoEing it to one of Zen/Soup/you. I think Ran and Ruy are town as they're both arguing for what they genuinely believe is the best option to help town. I give Orbo free passes so I'm hella skeptical of my own read of him, but I think he also believes the Decoy is the best option and his coy response to Gheb when Gheb tried to question him on it gave me a townie impression rather than a scummy one. That'd leave it amongst you three. I'm gutreading you as town at the moment but I legitimately have no basis for it so I'm not really chalking it up as anything important and not letting my own gut get past my reasoning.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Alex sucks. good night.

You went to bed just as I got off work nerdboy. Not my fault our schedules are incompatible.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Shut up Alex. Gheb is right.

Detective -> Tailor -> Poisoner -> Not Gonna Happen

You sound sold out on bus driver. I think you're nuts. If I'm scum, I'm picking Seer or Comp Cop. Then idk if if take double doc or bus driver.

Vote Detective

You'll have to sell me on the profit that not taking the chance of being caught by detective makes a protective role stronger enough to merit nullifying our protectives.

Unwilling to switch to anything else at all, atm.

You're insane if you think Bus Driver is as weak as you're making it out to be, Alex.

You're the second person to challenge me on the Bus Driver being weak so maybe I'm underselling it. I still think it's the weakest role available simply because its chances to swing the game for town are the lowest. A guilty halves the mafia team. BP Guard can corner the mafia in lategame as well. Double Doc can extend the game and limit mafia's NK options because of two protections going around. Bus Driver has a small chance of being correct (read: lucky) and redirecting the NK to mafia--relatively minimal impact compared to the other roles if you ask me. The only other role it can affect is the Decoy. It does get better as the game goes on, but so does pretty much every other role here. I'm not sure why people think it's so strong in this specific game.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

EBWOP: By "minimal impact", I'm mostly referring to its success rate. The low chance of it being pulled off is why it seems relatively harmless compared to everything else if you ask me.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

EBWOP the second: Regardless, if you believe the mafia gave us an informative, why would you give them a tool to help single out the person who got it and kill him? Why not go for the Poisoner whose effect would be useless for mafia in that case?

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

You'd rather give mafia the ability to bypass a protective role entirely without any real downside to it over a role that's virtually useless to them no matter what they handed out to us? I don't know in which parallel universe that is supposed to be a good idea but that's certainly not a viable plan for this game. If you're keen on making this an all-vanilla game then either Super Tailor or Decoy are better choices.

Now that I have a computer, I'm not sure how you reached this conclusion. From my point of view, mafia didn't pick the Armor Guard or the Double Doc. That 3/5 chance is effectively a 1/3 chance of affecting the game--and that 1/3 chance has such a low chance of doing anything meaningful that I'm fine with that tradeoff. That's why I'm voting the Poisoner.

Moreover, while I understand your point of view on the Tailor, I disagree with it on the merit that it makes the game a vanilla game. If you put that role in this game and Mafia gave us an informative, that's a ****ing WIFOM bomb and a headache following closely behind it, as there are players in this game that won't sit on that information and will try to use it to their advantage. If picking between that or a potential cop CC, I'm taking the cop CC every time. The latter results in scum, the former results in a headache and a distraction with no guarantee of payoff.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

With a tailor there are no positive or negatives.

Man when does Alex eat dinner

Well before 10:30.

 

[Xivii]

100% down with bp claim.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

I don't like the Tailor support even more now that it's effectively gained majority in terms of support (Ruy, Maven, Gheb, Zen, Ryker, Ran). The only dissenting voices are myself and Soup minorly. Orbo's said nothing on the matter I believe. Scum has to be on that wagon as it's not myself and Orbo/Soup would be far too easy.

I'm throwing out Maven's support of it as I think it comes off far more likely as a crackpot theorist trying too hard to remain a step ahead of his enemies than a manipulating scum.

I don't like Gheb's argument in the slightest. His entire counterpoint to me is that putting the Tailor in effectively makes it a vanilla game and allows the PRs to work if they're protective. That comes off as incredibly anti-town to me--he's actively encouraging town to give up a potential confirmed source of information in exchange for powering down the mafia. That benefits mafia far more than it benefits town in my eyes. It'd be acceptable if there wasn't a better way, but there is! We have the Poisoner which, if I'm right and Mafia didn't give us the BP Guard and the Double Doc (which my plan is there to effectively doublecheck that), is as safe a play in terms of powering down mafia and has the added payoff of not ****ing over our informatives if that's the angle mafia went.

**** it, here's my exact train of thought at the moment:

I want the Poisoner. I don't think Mafia gave us the BP Guard or the Double Doc. I think they gave us the Bus Driver, but the growing support for the Tailor has me reconsidering that point of view. The downside is we don't have a Bus Driver but I'm fine with that as I don't think the role would have much impact this game. The upside is that if I'm wrong (which I may be) and mafia gave us an informative (like my growing suspicions would suggest), we have a functional role that could help us narrow down Mafia.

Here's how that train of thought works if I were to support the Tailor:

I want the Tailor. I don't think the mafia gave us the BP Guard or the Double Doc. I think they gave us the Bus Driver, but the growing support for the Tailor has me reconsidering that point of view. The upside is that if I'm right and they gave us the Bus Driver, the role itself can function, but the downside is that if I'm wrong and they gave us an informative, we have sacrificed a reliable source of information in exchange for allowing a minimal-impact Bus Driver to work.

Does that paint any sort of picture as to why I have argued against that wagon so heavily?

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

I'm going to bed. I want responses to the BP Guard claim plan. If it seems like the majority would like it, we'll give the player 24 hours to claim. If nobody claims by then, we don't have it and we make our decision from there.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

EBWOP: Forgot to mention that I won't be around until this time again tomorrow between working and having my internship in the morning. I'll get to things after the fact.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

There's no negative to giving scum ST. If we give them ST then our assumed investigator will know that and can simply opt to not make use of his night action at all, defaulting this game to vanilla-only. There's no WIFOM or ambiguity involved there. By suggesting the possibility of scum!Gheb you're simultaneously implying that I'd screw my own faction over by pointing out in great detail how to make the role you give us completely useless. Care to remind me why anybody would do that?

I don't disagree that scum may be in support of the ST. If they are though it can't be because they want to have that role so much as it wouldn't help them in any way. Rather than that, they either must've realized that -from a townie pov of course- they can't reasonably argue against it and just try to blend in as well as possible as to not look suspicious or they actually did give us an investigator and are willing to accept us defaulting to all-vanilla. From a non-biased point of view that makes Maven and myself actually the least likely of the ST-supporters to be scum - the former because he was the one to bring up the possibility in the first place, the latter because he layed out how to make ST useless for everybody to see. That's pretty anti-mafia from both slots.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Before I delve into any of the recent posts, I just want to say that mechanical and setup analysis is and never will be my cup of tea, and I will always consider the player motivation instead of the role itself. I find that most of the time in games I've witnessed or even played in, DGames tends to become too wrapped up in superficial claims and ideas supporting them instead of the arguments presented.

That being said, I think some of the logic being spewed by others make more (or less) sense which is where I'm looking; I share Laundry's sentiment about Maven a little in this case.

This is an open question: Do people believe that scum would choose to be more passive about what role town gets or try and trick them into choosing something that will benefit them in the long-run? Who do you believe would be the most likely candidates on either side?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I guess I just find it really silly to see people try and say 'well your preference for what town gets in fundamentally scummy for X reasons' that comes down to arbitrary unless their motivations is through manipulation. This is why it's important to see what people answer in the question I presented.

I hold no barring towards Laundry's plan for or against it.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

You're like the last person I expect to accept it but regardless:

If the Town PR drew the Armor Guard, I want them to claim. This is something that I'd rather have discussion on first but it's ultimately something I'd prefer happen for a few reasons.

Should this be something we agree on happening, there's one of three things that happen:

1) Nobody claims, meaning we don't have the Armor Guard. We're pretty much back at where we started--except we have more information about mafia's choice, giving a better frame of reference for these early game pushes.
2) Armor Guard claims and there's a CC. This is effectively a Comp Cop guilty, but you get it on D1 before any actions even occurred. You have plenty of time to sort it out and build connections on both targets. It's a pretty good launchboard into D1 and helps give town an advantage for the rest of the game.
3) Armor Guard claims and there's no CC. We have what's effectively an Innocent Child on D1 with a free BP that scum have to blow a night shooting through in order to kill it. It gives us a free clear for two whole days to work with while we find the actual scum. That is also a significant advantage with which to start the game if you ask me.

It simplifies the choice of mafia PR as well. If we get no claim, we give the Mafia the Poisoner as it's likely they didn't give us the Double Doc and I do not want to give mafia the tool to either **** a potential investigative (that we have a 2/3 chance of having at that point) or the tool to find it. If we get a claim, give mafia either of the detective or tailor, it really doesn't matter which.

But most importantly, beyond the potential clear or the comp cop guilty, it puts actual weight to people's mafia PR preferences. Until we get a claim or a flip, all of these stances are useless because there's no point of reference to which you can draw back. With a potential Armor Guard claim on the table, suddenly there's perspective that we can use to analyze D0. Even if nobody claims, that still helps narrow down the field of view of what mafia selected to the point that it sheds a bit more light on some of the arguments players were using. It gives town better talking points with which to start D1 instead of saying "well your argument sucked!" There's more weight behind it if you can tack on how people pushing for the tailor seem a lot more sketchy when there's a 2/3 chance that mafia gave us an informative (particularly the comp cop).

That's what I'd like to do. I recognize there's a chance for some disagreement but I'd like to think that, if executed, this plan would put town into as good of a position as possible to start D1.

--

In terms of who I think is scum, I'd probably start by looking at the people pushing Tailor, particularly Gheb/Maven. Maven's argument has me straddling the dumb/scum line hella hard and I'm skeptical as to why Gheb bought it and is pushing for the Tailor so hard. Ruy also pushed for it but I think his arguments fall into the "misguided" category before the "scum pushing a goal" category. I don't think both Gheb/Maven are scum together, so there's another goon out there. After these guys, I'm mostly PoEing it to one of Zen/Soup/you. I think Ran and Ruy are town as they're both arguing for what they genuinely believe is the best option to help town. I give Orbo free passes so I'm hella skeptical of my own read of him, but I think he also believes the Decoy is the best option and his coy response to Gheb when Gheb tried to question him on it gave me a townie impression rather than a scummy one. That'd leave it amongst you three. I'm gutreading you as town at the moment but I legitimately have no basis for it so I'm not really chalking it up as anything important and not letting my own gut get past my reasoning.

You'd give Poisoner in this world despite believing that we probably have bus driver?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

You're the second person to challenge me on the Bus Driver being weak so maybe I'm underselling it. I still think it's the weakest role available simply because its chances to swing the game for town are the lowest. A guilty halves the mafia team. BP Guard can corner the mafia in lategame as well. Double Doc can extend the game and limit mafia's NK options because of two protections going around. Bus Driver has a small chance of being correct (read: lucky) and redirecting the NK to mafia--relatively minimal impact compared to the other roles if you ask me. The only other role it can affect is the Decoy. It does get better as the game goes on, but so does pretty much every other role here. I'm not sure why people think it's so strong in this specific game.

Because, just like Armor Guard and Double Doc, it becomes easier to land as the game goes on and the effect of a correct read (meaning hitting scum) is the MOST game changing swing available in this game. Even stopping mafia from killing your target (especially since you KNOW it's their target) is highly valuable at any stage as well. Imagine killing Orbo over there when you were trying to stop Zen from PoEing you.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

EBWOP the second: Regardless, if you believe the mafia gave us an informative, why would you give them a tool to help single out the person who got it and kill him? Why not go for the Poisoner whose effect would be useless for mafia in that case?

Why roll the dice when I could make them spend two nights to kill our PR only to force a vanilla game where they're forced out of their way for an NK and we have a chance to use our PR regardless.

I'm not down to give Poisoner in any situation right now.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I don't like the Tailor support even more now that it's effectively gained majority in terms of support (Ruy, Maven, Gheb, Zen, Ryker, Ran). The only dissenting voices are myself and Soup minorly. Orbo's said nothing on the matter I believe. Scum has to be on that wagon as it's not myself and Orbo/Soup would be far too easy.

I'm throwing out Maven's support of it as I think it comes off far more likely as a crackpot theorist trying too hard to remain a step ahead of his enemies than a manipulating scum.

I don't like Gheb's argument in the slightest. His entire counterpoint to me is that putting the Tailor in effectively makes it a vanilla game and allows the PRs to work if they're protective. That comes off as incredibly anti-town to me--he's actively encouraging town to give up a potential confirmed source of information in exchange for powering down the mafia. That benefits mafia far more than it benefits town in my eyes. It'd be acceptable if there wasn't a better way, but there is! We have the Poisoner which, if I'm right and Mafia didn't give us the BP Guard and the Double Doc (which my plan is there to effectively doublecheck that), is as safe a play in terms of powering down mafia and has the added payoff of not ****ing over our informatives if that's the angle mafia went.

**** it, here's my exact train of thought at the moment:



Here's how that train of thought works if I were to support the Tailor:



Does that paint any sort of picture as to why I have argued against that wagon so heavily?

The ****? You support Poisoner which is the exact same ****ing thing except it nullifies the role you think is most likely to exist.

I hate you.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Soup, pick a side on Laundry's claim thing. For or against and why. Don't ignore it.

I am for BP claim. Don't want scum BP claim in late game to deal with at all. Taking two nights to kill the mother ****** is cool by me.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Actually, wait, do we know who our PR is yet?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Anyway, at work. Be back in 9 hours.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Sneaking on for a few minutes.

There's no negative to giving scum ST. If we give them ST then our assumed investigator will know that and can simply opt to not make use of his night action at all, defaulting this game to vanilla-only. There's no WIFOM or ambiguity involved there. By suggesting the possibility of scum!Gheb you're simultaneously implying that I'd screw my own faction over by pointing out in great detail how to make the role you give us completely useless. Care to remind me why anybody would do that?

You're pushing for a role for the sole purpose of making it an all-vanilla game and telling us to throw out any and all investigation results if that's the PR we ended up with. I shouldn't have to explain to you why and how mafia benefits from that.

Because, just like Armor Guard and Double Doc, it becomes easier to land as the game goes on and the effect of a correct read (meaning hitting scum) is the MOST game changing swing available in this game. Even stopping mafia from killing your target (especially since you KNOW it's their target) is highly valuable at any stage as well. Imagine killing Orbo over there when you were trying to stop Zen from PoEing you.

The informatives get better as the game goes on as well. I'm cognizant of what the Bus Driver does. My point of view is that I can't rely on the Bus Driver to get that most game changing swing and it's other strength of redirecting kills to people you didn't want is both unreliable and not as strong as the other options. Mafia knows they picked the Bus Driver so their early kills are going to be spent trying to avoid that. Imagine if they hit you anyway because the Mafia shot Gheb and the Bus Driver targeted he and you trying to swap that kill on you to Gheb. That's why I don't value the role.

The ****? You support Poisoner which is the exact same ****ing thing except it nullifies the role you think is most likely to exist.

I hate you.

Because I've had this weird suspicion since the game started that despite my perceptions mafia gave us an informative. Maven and Gheb's early pushes for the Tailor sent up a red flag and I've been arguing for the Poisoner as a safety valve ever since--it makes the role I consider the weakest useless with the potential payoff of having a (semi) reliable cop result. I think it covers the bases better than Tailor and I don't like giving mafia the tool to find our PR for free.

That said, I'm softening on the Detective. It's clear I won't get the Poisoner so I'm willing to compromise on the only other good option.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

I hate those two recent posts of Soup's. They read of scum!Soup's usual uninvolved preaching rather than anything that truly aims to help town. The lack of stances, particularly on the BP Guard idea, is concerning as well.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

And now I'm out. Be back in 13 hours.

 

[Orboknown]

I dont want tailor laundry. Im okay with bp claiming

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'm reading off and on.

Will post tonight when I get off work.

 

[Maven89]

Just a quick post: You guys raised good points on why they might pick other town roles. I still think comp cop and bus driver are more powerful/swingy then some of you are saying but I can easily see now why they might pick those. When I gave it a look over, I thought the choice for town PR was pretty obvious, meaning a counter pick would be easy in return. I can see that might not be the case. I'll go more in depth later, but right now I'm in favor of Laundry's plan, and back to the drawing board on what role to pick.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I hate those two recent posts of Soup's. They read of scum!Soup's usual uninvolved preaching rather than anything that truly aims to help town. The lack of stances, particularly on the BP Guard idea, is concerning as well.

My aim to help town is different from yours, which is something I wanted to point out in others too. I wasn't preaching rather i was yelling you that a lot of this is just noise to me, and if me not taking a stance on your plan is scummy then so be it, but it doesn't concern me.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

That being said, why are you trying so hard to run the show laundry? I want to assume people can read between the lines and a lot of what I said was aimed towards what was going on. I don't like how you're instilling this plan and already looking to gain thread control, and then try to pin me on being scum because I don't wanna really hear it. It's one thing to present an idea but you talk as if me not answering is against town because it came from your mouth; that's not how you treated Ryker either despite him disagreeing.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

If your perception is that I'm trying to run the show, i'm not. My bp guard plan would've been worded very differently had that been the case. I'm simply saying what I think is right--in some cases quite often (tailor wagon).

Speaking of which, commit to a side on the bp guard plan.

 

[ranmaru]

I do not oppose the BP claim.

Laundry, ST would only benefit mafia if we somehow forgot we gave them a super tailor in the first place, which would be stupid. Your last sentence is essentially counter picking. Is that not the same as falling in scums hands? We still don't know what they gave us. With ST, we can ignore the results and the worst that can happen is that we use our own dayplay scumhunting skills instead of relying on results. With Poisoner the worst that can happen is a strongman kill. Poisoner is a definite no for me. I think we are all experienced here and wouldn't get easily influenced by an investigative if we give out Super Tailor. I think we can live with a Super Tailor. We literally cannot live with a Poisoner. (Poison is deadly)

 

[ranmaru]

I hate those two recent posts of Soup's. They read of scum!Soup's usual uninvolved preaching rather than anything that truly aims to help town. The lack of stances, particularly on the BP Guard idea, is concerning as well.

How does this affect your statement:

I don't like the Tailor support even more now that it's effectively gained majority in terms of support (Ruy, Maven, Gheb, Zen, Ryker, Ran). The only dissenting voices are myself and Soup minorly. Orbo's said nothing on the matter I believe. Scum has to be on that wagon as it's not myself and Orbo/Soup would be far too easy./QUOTE]

Here. Does it make you reconsider your argument? If so, please elaborate.

 

[Orboknown]

Yall say that like its so easy to just discount your own results or that they arent going to sibliminally affect things. Its a lot easier to say "just ignore" than to actually do it

 

[ranmaru]

By control I mean the ability to invoke action or influence thoughts and decisions. In my eyes, both Witch and Tailor have this aspect.

Ok. I think giving Super Tailor and ignoring any investigative that comes through is effectively taking away control from scum. This would not be the case in a standard closed mafia game, since we wouldn't be alerted to the presence of a Super Tailor until he'd flip or get rolecopped.