Lucas. Oh man.
. Between Pink Fresh, Yars, and Crescent Monkey, I have lost this matchup way more times than I would like to. Lemme give some insight into what I've decided about this matchup.
1) STAGE CHOICE: Take
to a small stage. This is incredibly important, and im not 100% sure why. I absolutely DESTROY Lucas on smaller stages. My theory is that he doesn't have the ability to approach as well as he'd like and he doesn't have the added option of run away pk freeze. GHZ, Yoshis Story, Skyworld, all great stages for this matchup (try to get high cieling wherever possible because lucas only kills up). And for the love of GOD don't let him get Distant Planet or Yoshis Brawl. These stages are a Lucas wet dream versus Ness. TRY TO GET A STAGE WITH A WALL TO RECOVER AGAINST. See point 6) for more on this.
2) EDGEGUARDING: Hold the edge. Just do it. With talks of 3.5 nerfing a lot of the recovery possibility, Lucas looks like he's going to take a huge hit and this will benefit us even more. You can break his tether with ledge drop dj nair (almost always), or if u hold on and he snaps back to the ledge u can wait for the laggy tether jump and LJ waveland and punish. There are very few occasions where you will have to (or even want to) absorb Lucas' PKT1 or trade PKT1's with his, but just remember that this is a valid option.
3) NEUTRAL GAME: this surprisingly isn't SO bad. He doesn't just outright win so long as u full hop consistently and stay above him. Lucas's rising fair is better than Ness's rising fair, so watch out for that. You can hit pkfreeze with pkfire and set up a mini wall, which is kind of helpful. LEARN TO POWERSHIELD though. This is huge in the Lucas matchup because pkfreeze is his best mid-long range option and powershielding it gives YOU an advantage at that range. If you can't powershield, mag approach isn't super bad in this matchup. You can either absorb the pkfreeze and time it so the absorb hitbox comes out and hits Lucas, or you can just know the absorption lag timing and djc out of it to punish pkfreeze (which is mad laggy from both air and ground).
Other than that, the neutral game is pretty simple. Rely on pkfire to zone. Use fair when you think you can catch him doing anything that isn't his fair (or if he mis-times it). And use mag approach sparingly as mentioned above.
4) COMBO GAME: This part here is just to remind everyone that lucas falls mad fast. Way faster than you'd expect. Doesn't fall like Ness at all. Practice some combos against a CPU just to make sure you're aware of his fall speed before you get surprised by it in tourney (has happened to me). Because of his fall speed, Ness gets 40-50 damage on any one combo. djc uair, fair -> grab, dair shenanigans, it all works on Lucas. But you gotta hit him first, which is hard, so I point you to my point 3).
EDIT: also you can dthrow cg Lucas a few times at low percents. Just keep that in mind.
5) GETTING HIT: For the LOVE OF GOD dont get grabbed. seriously. usmash combos out of grab at like 70 no matter how you DI (as long as he knows how to dacus) and then we die at like 115 automatically to grab. Not to mention at lower percents you'll take about 30-40 damage off of one grab. Don't get grabbed. And DONT TRY TO SPOTDODGE THE GRAB. you'll get hit. roll away. its mad laggy, you can still punish if you roll. If you get grabbed, DI dthrow behind him and cross your fingers with all your might.
A lot lot lot of Lucas's stuff can be cc'd. It's actually crazy. Experiment with it on your own and see how you can change the matchup in ur favor. It's a great way to get out of Lucas's guaranteed shield pressure, which you also just need to experiment with and figure out on your own. I tend to see how good my opponent is at shield pressure with each individual game, so I can't really elaborate.
6) OH **** YOU'RE OFFSTAGE: cross your fingers and pray to the only god you know. As people are getting better and better at edgeguarding Ness I can't stress this enough: Ness's recovery is BAD, ESPECIALLY against Lucas. If you recover high, a good Lucas will usmash you FOR FREE. If you recover low, a good Lucas will bair spike you FOR FREE. Just be aware of these options and look at his positioning while you angle your recovery. START HIGH, AND SWEETSPOT THE LEDGE. this is your best option on bad stages, but because Ness's recovery is so bad, there's a good chance a Lucas can start to read this and just go hit you. The other good option is to get a stage with a wall so you can vary your angle of low recovery. He can't bair every angle if you have a wall, so that's why GHZ/Yoshi's Story are a godly stages against Lucas.
I think this is enough for now. mu is 40-60 or 45-55 in
favor.