Lucina: Match-Up Discussion (UPDATE: Kirby!)

[Locuan]

Welcome everyone to the Lucina - Match-up Analysis and Discussion thread. I am your host locuan128 bringing you this appetizing thread. As the title suggests, here we will analyze Lucina's match-ups to determine her strength's and weaknesses against the characters of the Super Smash Bros for 3DS and Wii U roster.

The game is new, the meta-game will take years to establish. Keep that in mind. The information here will have to be updated constantly during each shift in the meta-game. As a consequence, the posts that you will see will have varying views regarding how to play against each character.

Schedule: Alright, so we will do single character match-ups every two days or so. This will keep match-up discussion a bit more active.

Data Submission: If you plan to contribute in a more precise and effective form, please include links highlighting any information or videos that back up your data. As a consequence, those posts will have more weight. With that said, the meta-game is still new so for now there will be an soft-exception to this rule.

General Rules: No flaming please from either side of the discussion spectrum. Everyone enjoys their own character. We will have people from different character sub-forums joining in on the discussion. Respect each other and lets figure out every little secret this game has to offer.

Format: The proposed format for match-up discussion is the following;

1. Strength's:
2. Weaknesses:
3. Opinions:
4. Overall Score.

The overall score will be based on a score of 100. Something like 40-60. Both numbers add to 100 as you can see. We will use multiples of 10, no 91-09 unless there is an incredibly strong argument as to why something should not be considered as a multiple of 10. The number on the left will represent Lucina, the number on the right the current match-up opponent in discussion. For example, let's say that we have a favorable match-up against Mewtwo, we would say 60-40 if its slightly in Lucina's advantage. 90-10, 80-20, would be highly advantageous for Lucina. 70-30, 60-40 would be for a slight advantage. 50-50 would be neutral. 40-60, 30-70 would be for slight disadvantage while 20-80, 10-90 would be for a great disadvantage.

Please Remember: When discussing match-ups we must assume that both players are playing each character to their utmost potential always.

Original Post updates: I will update the original post after each character the end of each week. If I am unable to update this post, I will let you guys know in a post in this thread during the future. It will probably be due to either 1. I am Sick, 2. I am on Vacation; I will update the thread as soon as I am available. If this happens, please make sure to continue the discussion with another character and it will be updated.

Table of Match-Ups:

| | | | | | | | | |
| 65:35 | ?:? | 45?:55? | 50:50 | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | ?:?

| | | | | | | | | |
| 40?:60? | ?:? | 55:45 | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | 40:60 | ?:? | ?:?

| | | | | | | | | |
| ?:? | ?:? | 45:55 | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | 55:45 | ?:?

| | | | | | | | | |
| 56.67:43.33 | ?:? | ?:? | 40:60 | ?:? | 45:55 | ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | ?:?

| | | | | | | | | |
| ?:? | ?:? | ?:? | 40:60 | 40:60 | ?:? | 45?:55?, 40?:60? | ?:? | ?:? | ?:?

Schedule:

• Week 1 (10/13/2014 - 10/19/2014):
• Week 2 (10/20/2014 - 10/24/2014):
• Week 3 (10/27/2014 - 10/31/2014):
• Week 4 (11/03/2014 - 11/07/2014):
• Week 5 (11/10/2014 - 11/14/2014):
• Week 6 (11/17/2014 - 11/21/2014):
• Week 7 (12/01/2014 - 12/05/2014): (Incomplete)
• Week 8 (12/08/2014 - 12/12/2014):
• Discussion Period 1 (12/16/2014 - 12/18/2014):
• Discussion Period 2 (12/20/2014 - 12/22/2014):
• Discussion Period 3 (12/23/2014 - 12/25/2014):
• Discussion Period 4 (12/26/2014 - 12/28/2014):
• Discussion Period 5 (12/29/2014 - 12/31/2014):
• Discussion Period 6 (01/01/2015 - 01/03/2015):
• Discussion Period 7 (01/05/2015 - 01/07/2015):
• Discussion Period 8 (01/08/2015 - 01/10/2015):
• Discussion Period 9 (01/11/2015 - 01/13/2015):
• Discussion Period 10 (01/15/2015 - 01/17/2015):
• Discussion Period 11 (01/19/2015 - 01/21/2015):
• Discussion Period 12 (01/22/2015 - 01/28/2015):
• Discussion Period 13 (01/29/2015 - 02/02/2015):
• Discussion Period 14 (02/05/2015 - 02/07/2015):
• Discussion Period 15 (02/08/2015 - 02/10/2015):
• Discussion Period 16 (02/13/2015 - 02/15/2015):
• Discussion Period 17 (02/21/2015 - 02/23/2015):
• Discussion Period 18 (02/24/2015 - 02/26/2015):
• Discussion Period 19 (03/03/2015 - 03/07/2015):
• Discussion Period 20 (03/11/2015 - 03/15/2015):
• Discussion Period 21 (03/20/2015 - 03/25/2015):
• Discussion Period 22 (03/31/2015 - 04/04/2015):
• Discussion Period 23 (04/21/2015 - 04/25/2015):
• Discussion Period 24 (04/25/2015 - 04/29/2015):

Greninja:
[40?-60?]

Spoiler

Emblem Lord's Post
Spirst Post #1
Summary: Greninja can camp with Shuriken which makes approaches difficult for Lucina. However, Lucina's jab's, f-airs, f-tilts, can cancel Greninja's shuriken except the fully charged one. Use that to your advantage. Greninja's ground game is to be respected greatly by Lucina players. If the Lucina user can get Greninja in the air, then the advantage shifts due to Lucina's juggling potential. Caution is advised with Greninja's d-air since you will need proper timing to punish Greninja. If customs moves are allowed, then the match-up could potentially shift to an even stance due to Dash Assault and others. More analysis/data is needed. At the moment the overall score is 40-60 Greninja's advantage.

Mario:
[65?-35?]

Spoiler

A2ZOMG first post
Silverfox first post and corresponding discussion with A2ZOMG (read the following posts)
Seriously after that second link the discussion is pretty good I recommend you read up until:
A2ZOMG last post
I would do a summary here, but I believe the discussion covered many important topics as to just summarize it. Going through the links would be more beneficial. Seriously I'm not trying to be lazy...

Calculator powers, why do you do this so sudden? This should be good...

Marth:
[40-60]

Spoiler

Alright so this was a very interesting discussion. Scores where mixed but they all agreed on one thing. Marth > Lucina. The question that remained was by how much. This is due to the fact that both Marth and Lucina would like to space their attacks. However, Marth has the advantage with tippers and additional hit-stun on shields. While Marth is already in kill range at 80ish% Lucina needs to be at >=110%. (Shaya post #2). It was suggested that Lucina should be aggressive in order to limit the amount of Marth's spaced attacks. However, that would be a terrible play-style because Marth can capitalize on your aggressiveness if played correctly. Additionally, Marth has a few more pixels of range on his attacks because of his height. He is able to f-smash through battlefield platforms etc. With customs match-up scores could shift as well. Due to all of these observations the score will be 40-60 Marth's advantage until further notice.

Peach:
[40?-60?, 45?-55?]

Spoiler

I would summarize this, but @Dark.Pch and @Shaya had great respective posts and discussions. The links are as follows:
Dark Peach post #1
Shaya post #1 and subsequent discussion with Dark Peach
We also had great input from @Zero Suit Senpai

Link:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Not much on Link discussion sadly so I will leave it as ?-? for now. However, it is at a disadvantage by how much has not yet been decided.
My Analysis
Shaya's post #1
Everyone claiming lag is clouding my judgement and that the match-up is closer. (I get it guys D: <3)
Scabe's post including video links.

Rosalina & Luma:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Not much on Rosalina & Luma discussion. General consensus is that without customs, Rosalina has a greater advantage than without.
Discussion begins on this post.
Discussion ends here and here.
For the limited amount of discussion I will leave it as ?-?. However, I will indicate that there is a disadvantage.

Diddy Kong:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Incomplete, we will get back to this match-up at a later date.

Falco:
[55-45]

Spoiler

We had a lot of discussion on Falco! Thanks to all the Falco mains who participated on the discussion! Alright the discussion begins on this post by @Jackson. It pretty much continues until this final post by @Ffamran. I recommend reading all the discussions since it gives you an idea of the mindset of the players during a hypothetical match between both characters. As a summary, the key point that users made is that the match-up will come down to spacing. Some users indicated that Lucina would have an advantage in the match. However, Falco's lasers do give him a tool to force Lucina to approach him. Yet, up close, Lucina can out-range Falco if her attacks are spaced correctly. For this reason, Lucina will have an advantage albeit a small one. 55:45. Be careful out of stage though, Falco has the tools to return in this iteration of Smash.

Shiek:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Discussion only included @Shaya's post. We need to go back to this discussion at a later time period.

Sonic:
[45?-55?, 40?-60?]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @Brightcoat's post. In general, it comes down to good spacing and a more defensive play-style against Sonic. Discussion ends with @Camalange's post. Be careful with Bair gimps and spring gimps offstage. Sonic's Uair can maintain Lucina juggled with ease. If you find yourself in the air, mix up your landing options so you don't become predictable.

Her biggest strengths that can be really capitalized against Sonic, however, are abusing the fact he also has poor landing and get-up options. A lot of Sonic's options are forecasted and predictable, so juggling him from below, throwing him above you, etc. is going to be your best bet. Uairs, Bairs, Usmash, etc. are going to be very useful to keep him from touching the ground. Applying platform pressure, walling him out, and punishing landing/get-up options will be where the true damage wracking and KO's will be made.

For more information on the match-up please read the discussion as they describe it in more better detail.

Villager:
[?-?]

Spoiler

We had little discussion for Villager so we have to go into this match-up at a later date once more. However, we had some great input from @Shaya and @HeoandReo. The discussion begins here, and ends with this post. I also added some input on this match-up on the Marth match-up thread with carries over into Lucina's game-play as well.

Shulk:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Discussion begins @Ffamran's post here. @spiderfreak1011 offers some insight from a Shulk main's perspective here. He refers to Shulk's game heavily when using Monado Arts. @TrueSapphire offers more numbered data regarding Shulk's Monado Arts. @SiLeNtDo0m then offers his insight on the Match-Up highlighting differences in both Shulk's and Lucina's aerial frame differences. His post is also the last in the Shulk Discussion. As always, I recommend reading the full discussion to have a better idea of how the match-up works. As a general note, I believe this match-up had differing viewpoints of who has the advantage by those who where a part of the discussion. For this reason, we will return to this match-up discussion at a later date to determine this.

Ness:
[45-55]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @PKBeam's post. Discussion ends with @Zano's post. Things to note, the range of Ness's Fair range. General strategy against Ness. Beware of Ness's grab game.

Meta Knight:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Nothing here yet!

MegaMan:
[45-55]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @CopShowGuy's post. During this discussion Mega Man mains give their input on how Lucina will have a difficult time dealing with Mega Man's projectiles and zoning. There is discussion on approach options against Mega-Man during these posts. I recommend reading them so you have a better idea of what to do against MM. I give my input on the following post. It's a lengthy one. I describe Mega Mans projectiles and his options, Lucina's game when she is in range against Mega Man, the off stage game for both characters, Lucina while above Mega Man, how to get the kill, and miscellaneous tips while in a tournament environment. @Donut Steel compares the ranges of both characters in the following post. @Shaya gives input on utilizing short hop rising air dodge into aerials as an approach option. He also gives input on Mega Man's grab.

Zero Suit Samus:
[40-60]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @Shaya's post. @Tobi_Whatever indicates the long list of kill options that ZSS has on the following post. @pichuthedk describes ZSS down b properties in this post. @EnGarde links a video of LiquidKen's Marth facing off against a ZSS. In general the match-up comes down to spacing due to all the tools that ZSS has. As always I recommend reading the full discussion to get a better idea of everyone's input.

Little Mac:
[40?-60?]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @HeoandReo's post. HeoAndReo gives a general insight of how Lucina can act against Little Mac while also giving a general insight to Little Macs tools against Lucina. @Venks gives his input in the following post. He links a video of a Little Mac facing off against Lucina. @Shaya clarifies some of the inconsistencies given by other users in this post. He then gives his own insight on the match-up. @Venks then replies with his insight on how Little Macs moves can be safe depending on the spacing of those.

Bowser:
[50-50]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @UltimaLuminaire's post. He indicates how this match-up is pretty even. A general insight of Bowser's tools and neutral game is given. For example, Bowser's hurt box shrinks when using fortress which can mess up Lucina's spacing. @Jerodak indicates how the match-up can swing into either characters advantage depending on who was sent off stage. @HeoandReo describes the match-up from his experience and highlights the same points that where stated previously.

Olimar:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @Earthboundy's post. @Shaya gives his input on the following post. He mentions how one does not need to worry about Olimar's side b unless it's a purple pikmin. This discussion is incomplete and we would need to return to it at a later date. For now, no match-up number is given.

Pacman:
[40-60, 45?-55?]

Spoiler

Pac-Man mains helping out! Discussion begins at @Pacman9's post. The discussion is extensive. Users highlight Pac-Man's fundamentals and specify how each specific fruit or item from neutral b can be used in different situations. Additionally, frame data is discussed. Discussion ends with @Firedemon0's post. I recommend reading the whole discussion as it will give the correct insight to the match-up.

Fox:
[?-?]

Spoiler

We did not have much discussion on the Fox match-up. We will have to come back to this at a later date.

Robin:
[45-55]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @ LIQUID12A 's post. Discussion ends with @Ultimastrike's post where he indicates the various tools Robin can utilize to harass Lucina. Both @Ultimastrike and I give our thoughts on the match-ups with some insights on stage choices as well. Ultima's post. My post.

Game and Watch:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @X3l's post. Then @SeanS gives a more extensive analysis on the match-up. Again, not a lot of discussion on this match-up so we will come back to it at a later date.

Pit:
[?-?]

Spoiler

There is an on-going crew battle against the Pit Boards and as soon as that is done we will update this match-up with proper discussion.

Zelda:
[55-45]

Spoiler

Discussion begins @S.F.L.R_9's post. He covers both Lucina's strengths and Zelda's strengths in the match-up. @SBphiloz4 then discusses the match-up dividing his post in sections. These include Ground Game, Air Game, KO Power, Ledge Game, Edgeguard, and general notes. He also covers a bit on stages. @Ultimastrike then add's his observations on the match-up.

Donkey Kong:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Discussion was limited to @Big O's post. He talks about the different aspects of the match-up including air game, ground and offstage. We will have to return to this match-up at a later date.

King Dedede:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @Flawed's post. He brings up important points as to how F-tilt out-ranges a lot of Lucina's attacks. @~ Valkyrie ~ gives an overall view of the match-up. We did not cover much from this match-up but it seems as D3 will end up having a slight advantage.

Mii Brawler:
[?-?]

Spoiler

@Esquire provided a great insight on how the match-up works. However, he was the only one who contributed to the discussion so we will have to come back to this at a later date.

Charizard:
[56.67-43.33]

Spoiler

We got some good discussion on the Charizard match-up. First up we had @Zachmac give us his input from the experience he has had on the match-up. He gives a slight overview on Charizard's options. The following posts also highlight those points. @Macchiato offers his view on how customs would work on the following post. @charizardbro provided a great post. He covers the neutral game, the approaches and offstage games for both characters as well as providing frame data in some situations. Discussion ended with @KingsHaki's post.

Lucario:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @Xacer's post. Steam then gives his input from the Lucario side of things. Finally, @M@v gives his input regarding Lucina and her rage mechanic vs. Lucario. Discussion was limited so a ratio is not determined. We need to come back to this match-up.

ROB:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Discussion begins with @Shaya's post. "Learn how to walk and powershield" Now that this is out of the way, discussion ends with @acetuner's post. We need more data to accurately determine a match-up ratio.

Kirby:
[?-?]

Spoiler

Nothing here yet!

If you have any suggestions on how to improve this thread please let me know!

 

[Locuan]

Reserved for future data, tables, etc.

 

[LIQUID12A]

Me likes the more organized aspect of this thread.

So Mario's getting talked about first?

 

[Locuan]

Me likes the more organized aspect of this thread.

So Mario's getting talked about first?

Greninja, the RNG calculator chose it first.

 

[Moydow]

From my own (questionable) experience so far, Greninja seems like Little Mac with a projectile and a better air game. I've had Greninjas who I've destroyed, and Greninjas who've destroyed me (including one especially demoralising one who I could not get past like 40% for 10 straight games). If you can get him in the air and juggle him a bit, he seems to go down easily enough. You need to space him well (so I'd personally say Marth is a better choice here if your spacing is good, because tippers (okay Marth is the better choice in general if your spacing is good, but Lucina has her own, ah, "advantages" ). Tippered f-smash can kill at about 60% with a small bit of charging), get too close and he'll destroy you. Substitute isn't the best counter move, there are ways to avoid it - depending on how much end-lag your move has, you can try to grab/hit Greninja before he hits you. Edgeguarding him is iffy, because his air moves are decent, especially u-air. You'll need a lot of air dodges once you do get him in the air.

Overall I'd say Greninja has the edge because his ground game strikes me as better, though if you can get him in the air and keep him there, he may not be such a major problem (I'm sure I'm missing something here though). Edgeguarding him seems like it may be dodgy though. I'm going to say about 65-35 Greninja for now (for Marth I'd say about 55/60 in Greninja's favour).

 

[Syrek]

From my own (questionable) experience so far, Greninja seems like Little Mac with a projectile and a better air game. I've had Greninjas who I've destroyed, and Greninjas who've destroyed me (including one especially demoralising one who I could not get past like 40% for 10 straight games). If you can get him in the air and juggle him a bit, he seems to go down easily enough. You need to space him well (so I'd personally say Marth is a better choice here if your spacing is good, because tippers. Tippered f-smash can kill at about 60% with a small bit of charging), get too close and he'll destroy you. Substitute isn't the best counter move, there are ways to avoid it - depending on how much end-lag your move has, you can try to grab/hit Greninja before he hits you. Edgeguarding him is iffy, because his air moves are decent, especially u-air. You'll need a lot of air dodges once you do get him in the air.

Overall I'd say Greninja has the edge because his ground game strikes me as better, though if you can get him in the air and keep him there, he may not be such a major problem (I'm sure I'm missing something here though). Edgeguarding him seems like it may be dodgy though. I'm going to say about 65-35 Greninja for now (for Marth I'd say about 55/60 in Greninja's favour).

Yeah, that's essentially how I would view Greninja against Lucina. Sometimes I'm just annihilating Greninja players and other times I get completely dominated. However, overall I would say Greninja has the advantage more so than Lucina. 65-35 sounds about right as of now. I'd love to have more matches against Greninja's online but sadly, I haven't had any match ups as of late. I shall let you all know if I do as soon as I can and how I faired against them. Should be interesting.

 

[Silverfox117]

My friend is a decent Greninja so I feel like I should put my two cents in this. The only thing that I can say that Lucina has over Greninja is her stronger air game. If the Lucina knows how to foxtrot properly she could force the match to be more aerial based. That being said tho Greninja's projectiles will make this very difficult. In fact Greninja has so much of a stronger ground game then her that it is kind of pitiful.For the ground game I could only say that Lucina would have to be very good at canceling the foxtrot to do anything at all to Greninja. Plus all the added projectiles makes it very difficult to close in( Greninja's foxtrot is fairly weak and not worth mentioning). Lucina's Counter is way better than Greninjas and if you see it coming then you could Counter his counter which is kind of funny if you think about it.

As recovery goes Greninja could easily gimp Lucina's laughable recovery which is kind of disheartening. In order for Lucina to have any chance she will have to take this fight in the air, and use your better aerials and superior spacing to your advantage. If you could do this then Greninja can't do much.

I will give this match up a 60-40 as Lucina does have some way to outpace Greninja and deal damage. The only problem is getting in for it. Also I think Lucina can Ken combo Greninja I think which is definitively a plus.

 

[Master Raven]

I appreciate the thread. With that said, I don't think we'll have a valid assessment of matchups in this game until the Wii U version comes out next month because Lucina is one of those characters that NEED a c stick to space properly, and in my experience in this matchup (there are a couple Greninja players in my region who are decent) she is going to be spend a lot of time in the air hopping over his projectiles, so until we have c sticks I feel like this matchup is inflated towards Greninja's favor on 3DS just because it's so difficult to space with Lucina properly against a fast character like him with those controls.

 

[Jmacz]

As a Greninja player one thing I have noticed that gives me trouble is with her counter and how well it can stop two of our better kill moves rather easily in uair and shadow sneak. Against any good Lucina (or Marth in that case) I have quickly learned that going for your up air to much can lead to bad things and we are forced to try and bait it out of you so we can land an usmash and rinse repeat.

Her aerials also come out much faster than ours, so going for any move of stage is often worthless, I usually just try to up-b them away offstage. I'd still say Greninja has a bit of an advantage but a good Lucina can easily disrupt my normal playstyle and force me to play differently than I'd normally like to.

 

[Robertman2]

This is a sweet thread.

 

[Locuan]

I appreciate the thread. With that said, I don't think we'll have a valid assessment of matchups in this game until the Wii U version comes out next month because Lucina is one of those characters that NEED a c stick to space properly, and in my experience in this matchup (there are a couple Greninja players in my region who are decent) she is going to be spend a lot of time in the air hopping over his projectiles, so until we have c sticks I feel like this matchup is inflated towards Greninja's favor on 3DS just because it's so difficult to space with Lucina properly against a fast character like him with those controls.

I definitely agree with your assessment. However, I decided to go ahead and post it to get a head start. The game already gives us a general idea of how things work. This is why I proposed a format where we have 5 days of the week to discuss a character and the other two days to review the matchup for characters that have already been discussed. We can have a different schedule of course but this gives us breathing room regarding things like what you posted. With that said, I really want a c-stick D:

Edit: I really like your sig!

 

[Spirst]

The GC controller will also be a big help for Greninja too as it'll minimize the accidental shadow sneaks when pivoting shurikens or trying to hydropump. Hydropump gimping itself will be a lot smoother on the GC controller as will spacing with bair. Lucina's aerials do come out faster, but her aerial mobility is less speedy. I don't know a whole lot about this matchup as the game is still fresh and I haven't played many Lucinas but I feel like Marth would be a better pick in this matchup than Greninja. Marth's tipper game, while nerfed a bit, is still very efficient for spacing and the sweetspotted hits can really damage Greninja's approaches. On the ground, I feel like Greninja can easily overwhelm Lucina. In the air, she may have an advantage, but it isn't a huge one considering Greninja's mobility. She can't really choose to play keepaway either as the shuriken makes that very difficult to do so.

 

[Locuan]

The GC controller will also be a big help for Greninja too as it'll minimize the accidental shadow sneaks.

Ugh, I know, those suck.

On the ground, I feel like Greninja can easily overwhelm Lucina.

I am tending to agree on this as well. Additionally, do you know if Lucina's jabs can cancel out with shuriken? I am pretty sure you can't cancel the charged ones but the uncharged one's there is a possibility. If she cannot then that makes the match-up even harder for Lucina.

 

[Spirst]

Ugh, I know those suck.

I am tending to agree on this as well. Additionally, do you know if Lucina's jabs can cancel out with shuriken? I am pretty sure you can't cancel the charged ones but the uncharged one's there is a possibility. If she cannot then that makes the match-up even harder for Lucina.

Yeah, Lucina's jab can cancel out everything aside from the FULLY charged one which just goes through and continues with the multihit. The short uncharged one can be difficult to time a jab for.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Lucina needs customs for this match. Iai counter works well, but so does regular counter. Storm Thrust can screw with his recovery, while Dashing Assault demands respect.

Vs Lucina I call 60/40 Greninjas favor, with default specials. Closer to even with customs.

 

[Silverfox117]

I just played my friend again today, and I feel like I should say something else about the match up. I think Greninja's water swords may be actually bigger than Lucinas Falchion. WHICH IS A HUGE PROBLEM. This means that it is even harder for Lucina to come in and dish damage and his smash attacks might actually be safe against counter, and it limits Lucinas ability to approach with fairs like completely. This limits her approaching capabilities a lot, so I think I feel like this is actually a 70-30 match up now noticing this. Of course I could be wrong and his swords could be the same size.

 

[Emblem Lord]

His ground game is weaker then Lucinas, but remember latency is always a factor on 3DS. When Wii U version drops is when we can really dig into match-ups.

 

[Silverfox117]

His ground game is weaker then Lucinas, but remember latency is always a factor on 3DS. When Wii U version drops is when we can really dig into match-ups.

Really I always figured his ground game completely destroys Lucinas with being a lot faster, a better running grab, projectiles, a counter, and his insane almost safe u-smash not to mention his side b.

 

[Locuan]

His insane almost safe u-smash.

True, but do not underestimate Lucina's/Marth's U-Smash. Our's is pretty good too and has a great hit-box.

Spoiler

 

[Emblem Lord]

They both have a counter. Lucina has all the tools to deal with projectiles. I should have clarified. Lucina is better at footsies. Greninja is better at pressure. Usmash is not safe. Period. Lucina also has better tilts.

 

[Silverfox117]

They both have a counter. Lucina has all the tools to deal with projectiles. I should have clarified. Lucina is better at footsies. Greninja is better at pressure. Usmash is not safe. Period. Lucina also has better tilts.

1. The fact that Lucina has a counter is irrelevant to the fact that Greninja has a counter.
2.Any tools Lucina has for Greninjas projectiles won't work for his fully charged shuriken, and good Greninja player will punish Lucina when she counters/attacks a projectiles.
3.You do bring up the good point that Lucina is infinitely better at footsies due to her amazing foxtrot, and other movement options that Greninja lacks. (I mean he has them, but they suck for him really)
4. If you dacus you could move 7/8ths of final destination with his u-smash which is so stupid. I have the link, but alas I can't share it until I post more. Looks like I shall be browsing smash boards more tonight XD.

True, but do not underestimate Lucina's/Marth's U-Smash. Our's is pretty good too and has a great hit-box.

Spoiler

Oh wow thanks. I guess Lucina and Marth has some pretty decent range too with their up-smash. Do you know where Marth's tipper is on that by any chance?

 

[Locuan]

Oh wow thanks. I guess Lucina and Marth has some pretty decent range too with their up-smash. Do you know where Marth's tipper is on that by any chance?

As always, at the tip of the sword . However, how far that hit-box is extended on the sword I do not know. I would have to test, and taking images of that would be so tedious on the 3DS.

 

[Silverfox117]

As always, at the tip of the sword . However, how far that hit-box is extended on the sword I do not know. I would have to test, and taking images of that would be so tedious on the 3DS.

Thanks for the offer, but you shouldn't have to do that. I like this thread everyone is nice .

 

[Locuan]

Alright, so in the proposed schedule timeline, normally today would be the last day for match-up discussion on the character for the week. Afterwards, the weekend would be two days to discuss characters that we have covered previously. However, since this is the first week, we would end the match-up discussion on Greninja on Sunday and begin the next analysis on Monday. Now, since we do not have enough information regarding the match-up for various reasons, here you can see the use of going back to previous characters during the weekends. If this format seems reasonable for you please let me know in my profile.

 

[LIQUID12A]

I honestly don't believe there's enough data on Greninja to do a full analysis and sincerely doubt the possibility that we'll suddenly get a surge of info in 2 days.

Just saying.

 

[Locuan]

I honestly don't believe there's enough data on Greninja to do a full analysis and sincerely doubt the possibility that we'll suddenly get a surge of info in 2 days.

Just saying.

I do not know if I misunderstood the purpose of your post. Regardless, my post was not indicating that we would have enough information for the Greninja analysis, in fact we are far from it. The point I was trying to make was so that people understood the schedule. I never claim that we would have enough information for a full analysis in fact:

Now, since we do not have enough information regarding the match-up for various reasons

What I want to highlight is the importance of going back to match-ups on the weekends precisely because we do not have enough information. This would help in situations like the one we face today or in situations where the meta-game shifts due to the games competitive evolution.

...here you can see the use of going back to previous characters during the weekends.

 

[LIQUID12A]

I do not know if I misunderstood the purpose of your post. Regardless, my post was not indicating that we would have enough information for the Greninja analysis, in fact we are far from it. The point I was trying to make was so that people understood the schedule. I never claim that we would have enough information for a full analysis in fact:

What I want to highlight is the importance of going back to match-ups on the weekends precisely because we do not have enough information. This would help in situations like the one we face today or in situations where the meta-game shifts due to the games competitive evolution.

Fair enough.

 

[RisingVexx]

For me this matchup is 65-35 or even 70-30 in greninja's favor, he can camp you with shurikens and shut down every aproach you try to do over the shuriken.
Counter doesn't seem to work very well against the disjointed smash attacks.
The only moment I feel Lucina's has an advantage is when greninja is above you, you can do short hop upairs frametraps (wich are hard on the 3ds), counter his down air (wich some times wont hit) but greninja can just shadow sneak away or use hydro pump to get away.
Greninja's recovery is almost un-gimpeable .
Dancing blade's 4th hit wont connect till 40ish%.
If greninja is crouching your Forward air will likely miss. Damn even Shulk and Sheik Jabs will miss.
You cant punish rolls very well as all the options do little damage (you want to save up smash and f-smash to kill) and dancing blade wont fully connect till 40ish%. Also greninja's roll is really good.
Up-smash and Forward smash after reading a roll are the best ways of killing Greninja.
F-throw and D-throw followups are hard since greninja can just use his fast-as-**** double jump to avoid any attack.
If greninja connects a down tilt and run upsmash you can counter, but the counter wont hit and greninja will be able to hit you with a f-smash or anything. You can also dodge but you will hit the ground with lag and greninja will be able to just smash you again. The safest way is to double jump but some times the upsmash will still hit you.
I feel lucina is better on low % since she can dthrow and mix-up up airs and do frametraps and get a good chunk of % but the fact that your best punish tool, the dancing blade, won't fully connect until late its a big deal.

 

[Locuan]

Thanks everyone for your input on the first week of Match-up analysis. While the game is new, anything to get us started can give us a good look of what to expect in general. Additionally, it would be a great way to log how the game has changed throughout time. Regardless, the first update to the thread was made. If you did not read the original post for the update here it is once more:
Greninja:
[40?-60?]

Spoiler

Emblem Lord's Post
Spirst Post #1
Summary: Greninja can camp with Shuriken which makes approaches difficult for Lucina. However, Lucina's jab's, f-airs, f-tilts, can cancel Greninja's shuriken except the fully charged one. Use that to your advantage and remember to space correctly! Greninja's ground game is to be respected greatly by Lucina players. If the Lucina user can get Greninja in the air, then the advantage shifts due to Lucina's juggling potential. Caution is advised with Greninja's d-air since you will need proper timing to punish Greninja. If customs moves are allowed, then the match-up could potentially shift to an even stance due to Dash Assault and others. More analysis/data is needed. At the moment the overall score is 40-60 Greninja's advantage.

Without further ado, let us begin the next match-up analysis within the actual schedule cycle. This weeks victim is none other than the red plumber, carpenter, doctor, tennis player... !

 

[A2ZOMG]

Short story is you guys win this matchup. It's against one of the worst characters in the game, so you shouldn't be surprised.

By how much is debatable. I'll bring up some important matchup specific things to think about.

*Lucina can Up-B out of U-tilt juggles at low percents. Mario has time to block if he reads this however.
*Mario's FLUDD is one of his few tools that actually got BETTER in Smash 4 as it pushes better and doesn't clank against moves. This is a non-trivial buff for both edgeguarding and simply just pushing opponents to the ledge.
*Mario CAN kill you if he shields your Up-B and he has a fully charged FLUDD.
*Mario still has leanback shenanigans on F-smash that let him situationally outrange Lucina's moves on a read.

Basically Mario has to outplay Lucina to be a threat in this matchup. If you don't respect his F-smash, it DOES HURT QUITE A LOT. He can gain stage control or dangerous edgeguard opportunities with FLUDD when it's charged adequately and try to trick you into getting gimped, but other than that he's not very scary in neutral, and he's also more easily edgeguarded in this game due to nerfs to Cape stalling.

 

[Locuan]

@ A2ZOMG Thanks for your input. The important part would be then to determine by how much. FLUDD is a great tool, but as you said it depends a lot on reads. So in essence, Lucina's ability to out-space Mario's moves severely hinder Mario in the match-up. As you indicated the neutral game must be difficult due to Lucina's footsies. So the question would be, as you said, by how much is Lucina's advantage? Additionally, thank you for the video. It will be a great resource for when the final write up is done.

 

[Silverfox117]

Honestly I think the match is a 70-30 in Lucinas favor heck i will even push it to 80-20. This match up is completely unfair for the poor Italian plumber. This is why.

A.Lucina out ranges all his attacks besides cape and f-smash. This means that whatever Mario can do Lucina could easily punish. Even his fire balls she could short hop over it and fair him. Lucina wants to always stay directly in front of him just out of his attacks, and punish whatever he does. This gives you enough time to punish his fire balls, heck your neutral b out ranges his f-smash too. If he short hop fire balls same rules apply to grounded fire ballz. Punish him the same.

B. Let us talk about the air game. Mario is a little floaty easy to juggle, and his recovery is garbage. Lucina could easily gimp him off stage if she wants. Honestly I don't think she would even have to as she could easily land a f-smash on him in the first place.

C. Shield breaker is going to be huge in this. Because of Lucina can be so aggressive this forces a Mario to either spam rolling which is easily punishable if you know how to foxtrot, or to shield grab spam which is where you shieldbraker comes in. Force him to shield a lot, and you could surprise Mario with your shield breaker. Also grab punishing is great too.

D.Lucina could get out of Mario's "combos" with her recovery simple as that.

E.Lets talk about Mario's fireballz as most likely the Mario you are playing against is going to spam them. If he uses them on the ground just short hop into fair. If he jumps you could actually foxtrot under him and u-smash. Which is fun to see. If you don't know how to foxtrot just short hop into fair you will cancel the fire ball with your attack and you will still hit Mario. If you feel ballzy enough you could use dolphin slash to hit him when he jumps, or jump and counter the fire ball.

F. Now lets talk about things you will have to watch out for Mario. Respect his f-smash it hurts, and don't let him charge fludd. (It still isn't that great to be honest). Respect his head butt too he might catch you a few times with it actually. His cape could lead to major out plays don't let him be comfortable using it.

G. Lucina has an answer to Mario's f-smash, and that is. It is easy as heck to see coming. Watch Mario and counter when he brings his hand back gets them every time. If you want something safer just shield and shield breaker punish.

This match up is terribly one sided. The only way for Mario to win is either a skill difference or to get in on Lucina and never stop the pressure. This of course doesn't work so well as Lucina could literally wall Mario, and turn the tides with a nice counter. A god Mario could beat us with amazing cape plays, but a god Mario could beat anybody with cape plays tbh.

Also most people don't see this coming. Grab and do grab attacks until they let go and you could still hit them with dolphin slash. It could actually kill that way too. Also Marth is way better match up against Mario as the play style allows for many easy tippers.

 

[A2ZOMG]

If Lucina's recovery was extremely good, I'd probably agree with the matchup numbers suggested. But her recovery is in fact pretty predictable too, and keeping in mind the buffs to FLUDD, it's not actually that difficult for Mario to get KOs in this matchup. FLUDD can very safely steal momentum from their recoveries and put them in positions where they are easily intercepted. Mario is also able to attempt trading hits with Marth/Lucina's Up-B with his N-air, which also is viable for potentially gimping either one of them.

Mario's out of shield options while they have relatively short range, they're quick, meaning you DO have to space correctly against him on the ground. You don't get to be aggressive for free in this matchup or just in general, because that gets you killed. Keeping in mind that Marth and Lucina F-air does not have the same frame advantage on block that it did in Brawl due to its increased landing lag. If you are spacing this at maximum range, obviously you have to be wary of Mario's F-smash. In contrast if you are not in maximum range, Mario can often Up-B/B-air out of shield. More likely, your best way to approach Mario is walking at him with D-tilts. Unless I'm mistaken, Mario can't punish D-tilt with rising B-airs, meaning he basically either has to roll or powershield into F-tilt to deal with D-tilt.

More reasonably, I would argue 6/4 in either Lucina or Marth's favor. With customs, Mario becomes harder to gimp and juggle with Gust Cape, and gets Fast Fireballs to gain more control over midrange, putting the matchup closer to 55/45 Lucina/Marth's favor.

 

[Silverfox117]

If Lucina's recovery was extremely good, I'd probably agree with the matchup numbers suggested. But her recovery is in fact pretty predictable too, and keeping in mind the buffs to FLUDD, it's not actually that difficult for Mario to get KOs in this matchup. FLUDD can very safely steal momentum from their recoveries and put them in positions where they are easily intercepted. Mario is also able to attempt trading hits with Marth/Lucina's Up-B with his N-air, which also is viable for potentially gimping either one of them.

Mario's out of shield options while they have relatively short range, they're quick, meaning you DO have to space correctly against him on the ground. You don't get to be aggressive for free in this matchup or just in general, because that gets you killed. Keeping in mind that Marth and Lucina F-air does not have the same frame advantage on block that it did in Brawl due to its increased landing lag. If you are spacing this at maximum range, obviously you have to be wary of Mario's F-smash. In contrast if you are not in maximum range, Mario can often Up-B/B-air out of shield. More likely, your best way to approach Mario is walking at him with D-tilts. Unless I'm mistaken, Mario can't punish D-tilt with rising B-airs, meaning he basically either has to roll or powershield into F-tilt to deal with D-tilt.

More reasonably, I would argue 6/4 in either Lucina or Marth's favor. With customs, Mario becomes harder to gimp and juggle with Gust Cape, and gets Fast Fireballs to gain more control over midrange, putting the matchup closer to 55/45 Lucina/Marth's favor.

I fail to see how this is a 60-40 match up. Literally every tool Mario has with an exception to two Lucina has an answer for. Honestly up bing out of shield is very risky, and if you don't land every hit you could find yourself getting punished for punishing. Something that is bad. Like I said earlier Lucina will force Mario to play the out of shield game, and again she could use this against him with her shield breaker. Fludd is still very gimmicky. I rarely have seen it used at all even with its buffs. It will never be as effective as something like Greninja's recovery.

Lucina's recovery is actually a lot better than what most people give credit too. Her shield breaker allows her to dash from the edge of the screen back to the edge very quickly. Dolphin Slash can come back from the bottom of FD. Mario will have trouble gimping her. Especially how her much more range her aerials have compared to him.

She has too many answers for everything that Mario has. While he has very little to offer. Again I can't see how this is a 60-40 match up.

 

[A2ZOMG]

Having an answer to tools =/= your tools automatically work 100% of the time. You have to space CORRECTLY, factoring your opponent also has the ability to move and adjust spacing and make reads.

Marth and Lucina realistically can't wall out or rush down Mario to nearly the same extent as in previous games due to raw frame data nerfs. It just doesn't happen that way when their aerials almost universally got slower and acquired slightly more landing lag. Mario isn't a slow character, and while most of his spacing tools are definitely not very strong, his B-air and F-smash are both good, and if they're spaced correctly, they aren't things you are simply shutting down on reaction. Mario can also reset stage control or set up edgeguard situations with FLUDD, which actually pushes people respectable distances in this game rather than just stalling them. And the point is Mario actually has some tools he can depend on for evening the score. He most definitely doesn't win neutral as his ground game is limited, but Mario does in fact have a strong ability to capitalize on predictable recoveries, which means he can be rewarded well for reads in this matchup.

You're sorta overrating Shield Breaker for recovery. It didn't even get used extremely often in Brawl, and DI isn't what it used to be in this game, meaning outside of living at really high percents, it doesn't have as many high recovery applications as it used to, which makes it more often actually relatively easy for Mario to harass with FLUDD, Fireballs or Cape. Dolphin Slash is strong for recovery, but can be harassed with fireballs before you get in position to Up-B, or with lingering hitboxes like Mario's N-air, which is strong for setting up gimps. And Mario's Cape has similar range to Marth and Lucina's aerials, making it a guess to outspace it after Mario sets up FLUDD edgeguards. Mario doesn't need to be a god at this matchup to gimp Marth or Lucina when their recoveries by default have to usually first get past FLUDD. Sure, it requires some level of basic reads, but the situations where he can gimp either character are not extremely difficult for him to set up outside of finding the opportunity to land a hit on stage.

 

[InfinityCollision]

*Lucina can Up-B out of U-tilt juggles at low percents. Mario has time to block if he reads this however.

Or just vector out/counter it. Utilt juggles are not a thing in this matchup.

*Mario CAN kill you if he shields your Up-B and he has a fully charged FLUDD.

Shouldn't be trying to used up-b in any situation where this is even slightly possible anyway.

Shield Breaker

Dolphin Slash

If you want to talk about matchups in the context of FG only then okay I guess, otherwise you're nearly three weeks behind the times here.

70-30 imo. His recovery is trash, our offstage game is still godly, and we can outplay him onstage as well. Customs give him a few worthwhile tools as well but nothing that's going to break this matchup.

 

[A2ZOMG]

If you want to talk Customs, the matchup is closer to 55/45 Lucina's favor. Fast Fireballs and Gust Cape are huuuuuge in this matchup. Like...really really huge. Means Mario actually has control over neutral if he plays really carefully.

 

[Locuan]

If you want to talk Customs, the matchup is closer to 55/45 Lucina's favor. Fast Fireballs and Gust Cape are huuuuuge in this matchup. Like...really really huge. Means Mario actually has control over neutral if he plays really carefully.

Would you care to expand on this if customs do end up becoming tournament legal?

 

[A2ZOMG]

The way I see it, with Fast Fireballs and Gust Cape, Mario can actually play midrange and control the pace of the game. Gust Cape offers several important advantages, including Cape stalling to avoid traps and edgeguards (one of Mario's biggest weaknesses currently), as well as a large windbox that can be used both for edgeguarding or spacing safely. Fast Fireballs are generally faster, can't really be swatted easily on reaction, and less punishable than regular fireballs, giving Mario tools to limit Marth and Lucina's mobility options and punish commitments.

Now you might argue that yes, you can just walk and powershield to avoid taking damage from fireballs, and then we get back to the argument that Lucina still has better ground moves than Mario. I'm not ignorant of that, hence why she still has the advantage. What Fast Fireballs and Gust Cape however are able to do are extend Mario's range of influence in footsies outside of F-smash range (which is a range where Mario ideally wants to try baiting you). Even if Mario only hits with the windbox on Gust Cape, it's still helpful to push opponents closer towards the edge and reset spacing. And while Fast Fireballs only do about 2%, as I stated, they're overall much safer and effective for poking than regular Fireballs and still serve to interrupt commitments/refresh KO moves.

Worth noting that Mario's unreliable combo game can be potentially addressed with Explosive Jump punch, which can be comboed out of D-throw and does 21% when connecting both hits, giving Mario actually respectable early damage racking and a potential aerial KO option.

So overall with custom moves, Mario becomes harder to trap into kills, gains actual damage and spacing options that are safe in this matchup, and also gains an extra combo/finisher option that has pretty practical applications. Lucina in contrast doesn't really gain much against Mario with customs, aside from perhaps Dolphin Jump to avoid gimps and to pressure Mario's low recovery. The much hyped Dash Breaker isn't quite as useful against Mario's Fast Fireballs, and I'm not really certain I see great applications of any of the DB or Counter customs against Mario specifically. So I'd definitely argue it's noticeably closer with customs.

 

[Locuan]

The much hyped Dash Breaker isn't quite as useful against Mario's Fast Fireballs.

By that statement, is it safe to conclude that the Dash Breaker clanks with the fireballs?