Before I start, respect for Steam for adopting the +/- system instead of the XX:XX one for the matchup directory.
This matchup is kinda funny how completely it turns around after we reach %'s where our AS starts eating fireballs and force palm flame becomes usable. It's still not in our favour but doesn't feel that bad if you can avoid dthrow at high % which is definitely more than doable. Returning the thanks for @
Samura1man
for the experience in this matchup.
The neutral starts off icky for us if the Luigi can use his fireballs smartly as it clanks with even our fully charged AS up till something like 60-70%. We can still shoot them at different heights to pass them and hit Luigi but it becomes predictable if you don't mixup your shorthops. Still, nair is the key again as it cancels fireballs and outranges Luigi's shorthop aerials (except bair, maybe) so use those moves in tandem and try to maintain your space even if the overwhelming amount of fireballs seems unstoppable. It's important to realize that taking a grounded hit from a fireball may sometimes be the best answer in combatting him (faster than powershielding to a followup) if he fires them too close to you so you can probably hit him with a dash attack. Double Team is also highly usable (and a scary surprise) against fireballs since they're slow and predictable after fired, you'll just have to be careful with the direction you choose to remain safe. So in general, for neutral before aura kicks in, we want to stay in mid range, just on the range that dashgrab is reactable to not let Luigi gain stage control for free and to avoid his grabs.
That darn dashgrab is what makes it dangerous to commit into anything mid range if you're not super sure of what you're doing. Our run speed isn't fast enough to escape it from up close and it will also grab us from shorthop excluding the apex of the jump. Tilts are also pretty unsafe against it so I'd recommend sticking to the plan above and trying to gain some momentum that way. Luckily, from my experience at least, Lucario is pretty good at escaping his downthrow followups due to his floatiness so getting caught in one at low% shouldn't be the end of the world if DI'd properly. On the other hand, we're not that good at comboing Luigi either and we have to be really careful in doing so because of his nair being so fast and our disjoints being a bit lacking sans nair. Uair juggling is the only reliable way to keep him in the air but watch out for that occasional cyclone mixup, it's range is suprisingly good. Getting him in the air is another problem though, we'll have to be careful when fishing for a grab or dash attack since it means breaking into his area of comfort.
When we reach those %'s where our FPF and AS starts ignoring fireballs (and DT starts killing), the neutral turns in our favour. He can't risk shooting them anymore as any AS or FPF hit after moderate %'s will send him close or over the ledge and that's where we want him to be (and not enough people try to edgeguard him at all). We can go really deep and far with nair to intercept his sideB's afterlag, so the only thing left is to watch out for his double jump (usually coupled with tornado) and potential misfires. Having an AS charged will force him to really think where he starts charging the missile and is the key to force him recover low where we want him to be.
The largely deciding factor in this matchup is, of course, that dowthrow to kill moves and our ability to avoid it at critical %'s. It can be really hard for us to continue avoiding it (and staying safe ing general too) if pushed into a corner but we have the tools to control neutral at that critical time and prevent Luigi from gaining control. However, when Luigi breaks our aura wall and we're sent flying, it can be difficult for us to regain control. He shouldn't be gimping us but landing can prove difficult and a poorly landed upB on stage just begs to be upB'd or dthrow -> cycloned. Luigi has also many other of quick killing options from up close so it's important to maintain safe space between him. We will be killing him mostly from edgeguards and AS.
Some other random things:
- I've found that ASC to upsmash isn't too reliable against Luigi if he's paying attention as nair is usually fast enough to disrupt us. Still worth going for but don't get too predictable.
- Hitting a grounded Luigi with nair at low% is almost impossible to followup as he can jab while sliding backwards.
- Uthrow -> uair at really low% will always trade with Luigi's nair, nair might work.
As for stages, I'd imagine our preferences look something like this:
FD / BF / DH > WI / PS2 / T&C / SV > Skyloft / DP / CS / KJ64 >> Halberd / LC
FD, BF and DH are easy to control and there's a lot of space to run away if Luigi gets in our face. SV is good otherwise but the platform can help his recovery a lot sometimes which is annoying. T&C doesn't have that problem but again, it has a lower ceiling so be wary of his vertical kill moves. Wuhu Island has a lot of good transformations for us and is soo big to help us survive but at the same time, the transformations may interrupt our edgeguarding and zoning. Pokémon Stadium 2's transformations seem good to us without the fear of our edgeguarding getting interrupted and I don't think Luigi likes the ice and wind transformations that much while the rest are quite neutral.
I feel the rest of the stages are those that I wouldn't recommend going against Luigi. They aren't completely unmanageable at all but makes our gameplan more difficult than needed. Just avoid Halberd and Lylat Cruise at all costs, they're not fun at all against him.
Overall I'd say Luigi is a -1 matchup for us. -2 is a bit of a stretch I think even if isn't completely out of question and -1.5 doesn't exist.
might not be an easy foe, but it's doable if you know when to drop combos, when to go all out, and if you have a good mix up potential.
Loota
that this matchup is -1 for Lucario, even if Luigi cannot approach he's still got tools to deal lots of damage and like I said, he's got guaranteed setups for kills too. Lucario players should always be aware of Luigi's upB too, after dthrow you should never airdodge at 60-80% range, upB punish will come if done correctly, I would say that airdodge is safe option after 90%, that's when Luigi has to find another way to deal damage or close the stock.