Lucario Matchup Discussion: vs. Bowser

[Steam]

Lucario Matchup Discussion: vs. Bowser

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Welcome to the Lucario vs. Bowser matchup thread/export. As you might have guessed this thread is for discussing the ins and outs of the Lucario vs. Bowser matchup and who wins/loses. As always please keep discussion on topic and civil. Refer to this thread for all other matchups.

 

[Zapp Branniglenn]

This is a matchup I've always wanted to see at high level play. Things may look pretty bleak for Lucario when you look at the killing power of Bowser's entire moveset. Bowser gets to be a bit of a raid boss all his own when he gets some rage. Being the heaviest character in the game, the last thing you want to be when fighting him is a character that can't secure stocks. And Lucario really struggles with this if Bowser takes the first stock and resets him to 0 aura. Lucario also lacks a spike move of any kind, which would really help with edgeguarding Bowser's slow, not terribly protective Fortress. Don't let previous games fool you, Bowser's Fortress takes him higher, and very far in Smash 4. If you've got an aura sphere ready, try running off and firing at him. There's not much he can do to avoid it.

You're aura sphere is really important for this MU. You know how it gets harder and harder for your opponent to successfully air dodge and spot dodge an Aura Sphere as it grows in size? It's practically impossible for Bowser. He's the largest target in the game, and those I-frames just won't last long enough. Definitely fire at Bowser when he's airborne. He can't shield it from there.

Don't rely on Force Palm zoning. Bowser's Dash is far faster than yours, and he has a mean punish game. Heavy damage jab 1 followups, a side B command grab that can kill off the top on Battlefield, Bowser Bomb. Add the fact that's he's got a fantastic skid Stop to work around your shiek-tier aerial landing lag.

One more thing I think Lucario's got going for him, is Bowser's weight. Lucario will never leave that point of his stock where he's got a competent combo game. And Bowser's pretty helpless when tossed into the air. He does have surprise dairs for hungry jugglers, but that's a risky option. The truth is that he's very poorly equipped to deal with foes under him.

Despite all of this, I see Bowser taking this MU handily. He's faster on the ground, has better range, limb intangibility on several moves, can kill you at any point of his stock, and he lives longer, allowing him to keep a stock lead for very long. All hail the King, baby.

 

[Steam]

As a Lucario/Bowser player, these are my thoughts:

bowser's meaty limbs easily beat out everything lucario has, though this is the case for almost every matchup in the game from lucario's perspective. Bowser has high reward and great meaty, but he's slow enough and has enough end lag on most things that lucario isn't completely shut out like in certain matchups and has a fairly easy time grabbing bowser. Most of Lucario's stuff comes off grabs which helps in this matchup because bowser's OOS is really good but his dodges are ass and he'll have to pick some risky options (dodging or meatying) to avoid the grabs since lucario out-maneuvers him. A single grab for lucario = tons and tons of damage at almost any % and in general bowser is going to struggle a lot to land, and will usually be forced to the ledge. Things don't get much better there either as the reverse aurasphere charge option select is insanely potent against bowser.

For those who don't know, when an opponent is at the ledge, Lucario can charge aurasphere facing away from the ledge. if the opponent gets up in place, get up attacks, or ledge jumps, they'll get caught in aurasphere charge which combos into upsmash or dair or a grab. If the opponent uses get up roll Lucario just fires the sphere he's charging and hits them. The only other option is to ledge drop and aerial, but if lucario can react to this he can shield the aerial then punish with aurasphere when they regrab the ledge since they won't get invuln again.

Aurasphere charge approaches are great against bowser's massive frame and his only good way to deal with it from optimal angles is upsmash which is very risky. On top of that Aurasphere itself is pretty good in general as bowser's initial dash isn't super fast and his walk is super slow, meaning auraspheres at neutral are fairly safe because dash powershielding them is unreliable, though meaty ftilt will easily beat it out at almost any% so don't expect to camp him with it or anything.

I've been known for being really down on lucario as a character because I feel he's too weak at neutral to compete with fast characters with reflectors. Bowser has neither of these traits and Lucario as such is just fine at neutral against him, however it's key for lucario to stay very mobile and very tricky to try to bait out bowser's stuff. If you just run in like an idiot he'll just punch your head off.

Despite the obvious field day lucario has with bowser there's still the elephant in the room of bowser being able to kill lucario super early reliably, which is really what saves him in the matchup. He also has the ability to kill ultra early with moves like fsmash and can use the fear of these options to force lucario into picking options that give bowser free damage. In addition, bowser's bair is fantastic at intercepting lucario's recovery if you know the angle, but bowser has to be careful or he could get punished hard if lucario bends it around him then punishes bowser really hard while he waits forever to reverse grab the ledge.

Lucario Pros:

Projectile- forces bowser's approach
many viable mixup options
mobility
combos for days
juggles for days
ledge option select for days
superior offstage/recovery in the matchup compared to bowser
excellent grab game and ASC help mitigate bowser's crazy good OOS

Bowser Pros:
Kills Early with pretty much any move
hella damage at any%
outspaces lucario easily
won't die ever without aura's influence

Matchup Keys for Lucario:
Stay mobile and patient
don't air dodge into bowser and die at a super low% to something
abuse bowser in the air and on the ledge

Matchup Keys for Bowser:
quick reactions on normal moves to swat lucario, do not respect anything.
Know when your murder moves will kill lucario super early and leverage it against him.
punish optimally, being able to end stocks ASAP is EVERYTHING

Overall I'm confident that this matchup is +/- 0 with a very slight edge to bowser but not enough to make it +1. Lucario has the versatility to easily work around bowser's sluggish neutral game and forces the approach but bowser has the ability to swat everything if he stays a step ahead. The threat of lucario's grabs heavily discourages bowser from sitting in shield which makes the great OOS less relevant. On top of all that, Lucario can gain obnoxious advantages when bowser gets put in the air. However, Bowser hits like a train and will basically never have to worry about primal rage Lucario tearing him apart and killing him early, which in turn helps bowser get rage kills at pretty stupid %. Overall it plays out pretty evenly imo but can (and often will) snowball really heavily towards either side depending on who makes the right reads.

 

[UltimaLuminaire]

Sup.
Thanks for paging the King of Awesome. Several of our board members have tournament experience with this MU on record. The one that comes to mind off the top of my head is @TruthOrDare .

This MU offers several great advantages, namely the benefit of Aura Sphere both in and out of neutral, as well as his amazing KO options once Aura gains strength. This means that not only has an advantage in neutral, but the KO moves that players need to look out for expand into your throws as well as your smash attacks and specials. always threatens a comeback and the MU becomes one large gamble as prays for you to mess up your spacing or miss the ledge with your UpB.

That being said, this MU ends up feeling more or less even, with a slight advantage to if only for the reasons mentioned above. Both characters have very similar problems when trying to secure stocks against each other. Neither character has a move that lets them auto-win the neutral, like or and neither characters have a kill-confirm off of relatively fast and safe moves. Instead, both characters need to meticulously out-space and out-play their opponent in this MU in order to land the crucial special or throw that will knock their opponent out of neutral and hopefully net a KO. Both characters have a great advantage once the other is off-stage, and both characters suffer a great deal when forced into the air above the other. The key differences stem from how hard will have to fight if you lose the first stock too early, as described by @ Zapp Branniglenn above. But that process is made easier because of the inherent strength of Aura.

Comebacks can happen for both sides in this MU. All it takes is one mistake. While this can be frustrating, it can also be very exciting for both players. I hope that members of both boards will seek each other out and experience this first hand.

 

[Eeveecario]

Well, This discussion only has 3 posts and it's too complete already. I'll try to help with the very few stuff left to mention.

While talking as a Lucario, recovering in the Bowser MU can be more complicated than it looks.

Bowser can edge-guard pretty well, and every air moves (even Dair if you want style) can cover most of Lucario's recovery options.
Fair/Bair can bop him if he tries to recover on stage and smooth land.
UpSmash can smack him if he tries to loop into land or crash on the ground. (If he baits that recover, he can punish it with anything he likes... and IT WILL HURT)
Nair/Bair can hit him if he tries to recover under him.
DTilt is too meaty and can hit Lucario if he tries to grab the ledge.

Practically, we need to clear the coast or recover weird in order to make it back on stage. Mixing up the recoveries is a must for Lucario if he wants to live another day. Of course, if the Bowser is being too happy to attack, it can be baited and punished, so watch out for any opportunity you have.

 

[Hyjacked]

I agree with everything said so far, but one other thing worth mentioning... If you're playing a Bowser, watch what he does when you're under him. At higher-level play this is probably harder to pull off, but I've killed many Bowsers by baiting out down-B into a DT.

 

[Pitbuller26]

Since we have dedicated Bowser mains in Socal, but my lack of activity means I haven't played most of them. I have played one and won solidly even from a stock deficit on a low percent Bowser.

As others said, STAY MOBILE. Shielding is something is a last resort due to how easily Bowser can break it. By being mobile, ASC functions as our shield in this match due to how big Bowser is. Respect his kill power. As others have said, we can combo Bowser at nearly any level of Aura and Rage as well as making sure he can never land on stage easily.

I believe this matchup is in Lucario's favor. More than +1 but less than +2, +1.5 is what I think.

 

[Steam]

Would like a little more contribution here since I'm hoping to wrap these up tomorrow, need a final ratio basically.

 

[Zapp Branniglenn]

I neglected to mention it in my post, but my score for this MU is 55:45 in favor of Bowser. I just don't see this matchup as equal, but there is of course plenty of room for upsets on either side due to the characters' designs. But if a Bowser and Lucario play a Best of 3 and have equal skill and knowledge of this matchup, Bowser seems to be the more likely victor. The Lucario player is just so dominantly held back by the possibility of being stuck trying to kill a 100% Bowser after just losing their Stock and having no aura. It's a character-based limitation, and not something the player can help.

 

[Eeveecario]

I have to disagree, Lucario might have trouble getting in Bowser's wall, but once inside we can strike as much as we please. When Bowser has the potential to wall us easily, Lucario has the versatility/adaptation tools and can mix-up the offense, finally getting in and finish.
I have to agree with @ Pitbuller26 , A patient and creative lucario can win the match here, +1 to Lucario. (Maybe +2 if the lucario is really patient and approaches carefully).

 

[Steam]

I neglected to mention it in my post, but my score for this MU is 55:45 in favor of Bowser. I just don't see this matchup as equal, but there is of course plenty of room for upsets on either side due to the characters' designs. But if a Bowser and Lucario play a Best of 3 and have equal skill and knowledge of this matchup, Bowser seems to be the more likely victor. The Lucario player is just so dominantly held back by the possibility of being stuck trying to kill a 100% Bowser after just losing their Stock and having no aura. It's a character-based limitation, and not something the player can help.

on the other hand, when lucario takes the first stock bowser will have a very hard time at neutral trying to deal with huge auraspheres that do 25%, and when forced to approach is highly likely to eat huge combos for huge damage. The matchup in general is snowbally on stocks like that.

 

[Zapp Branniglenn]

on the other hand, when lucario takes the first stock bowser will have a very hard time at neutral trying to deal with huge auraspheres that do 25%, and when forced to approach is highly likely to eat huge combos for huge damage. The matchup in general is snowbally on stocks like that.

Those auraspheres are dangerous, but Bowser's got the tools to take stocks before they become that large and that powerful. Not only does Bowser take a lot of damage to kill, he also kills you earlier than other opponents. You've got a shieldable projectile? We've got kill confirms out of a jab 1 followup and a decent edgeguard/ledgetrump game. I don't think it's unlikely that Lucario could take the first stock and be sitting pretty with tons of aura because of it. But the match will still be far from over. Lucario's got a lot more at stake from stock lead deficits than Bowser does.

At low Aura, all of Lucario's specials are extremely ineffective in terms of damage, kill power, and range. Aura spheres are weak, Force Palm can't be used to zone, Force palm's grab has no killing power. Neither does Double Team. And the reduced range on Extreme Speed means less options other than going for that ledge. His jab combo, throws and aerials deal damage in the realm of 5-8% compared to Bowser's 8-20%. And I've seen Lucario's frame data, It's not too impressive on the ground, which is Bowser's domain. Your tilts have some good disjoints, but your speed is comparable to ours.

I haven't heard a compelling argument yet for how Lucario deserves advantage point for this MU. You use words like "once he can get in" to describe how you will exploit Bowser's greatest weaknesses. Do you think Bowser's playstyle doesn't thrive off of keeping opponents close? We don't zone. We overpower the opposition with shield pressure, hard punishes, and grabs.

 

[Pitbuller26]

Nothing you've said says Bowser has a favorable matchup against us either. Unlike Bowser, Lucario has landing options. Unlike Bowser, we aren't a giant hurtbox. Unlike most characters, we have an alternative to shielding: Aura Sphere charge. Unlike most characters, Bowser is always combo food for Lucario regardless of Aura and Rage. Lucario has too many tools to give Bowser trouble.

 

[Zapp Branniglenn]

Color me intrigued. Because a 35:65 MU for Bowser describes our MU with Shiek, our absolute worst matchup that we've been able to quantify. Has Lucario's meta advanced to the point of being Shiek while I wasn't looking? I encourage any of you to private message me so we can set up a best of three set. In my time participating in other characters' MU discussions for Bowser, one thing has become clear to me. Nobody wants to think they lose to Bowser.

 

[Steam]

Bowser definitely should be zoning because framewise everything he has is heinously unsafe. If Lucario is in bowser's face he can really abuse his blind spots large frame, namely with aurasphere charge which absolutely wrecks bowser or any other large character.

Color me intrigued. Because a 35:65 MU for Bowser describes our MU with Shiek, our absolute worst matchup that we've been able to quantify. Has Lucario's meta advanced to the point of being Shiek while I wasn't looking? I encourage any of you to private message me so we can set up a best of three set. In my time participating in other characters' MU discussions for Bowser, one thing has become clear to me. Nobody wants to think they lose to Bowser.

I mean at the same time, everyone thinks they beat lucario automatically because they either A. can kill him at 100 with something or B. beat his neutral game options. But a lot of people don't really take into account lucario's versatility and non-commital moveset. While someone like bowser WILL get punished for almost anything that doesn't land due to being slow and fat, Lucario can make himself safe because of the unique mobility options he has as well as threatening options that force his opponent to be active.

It's definitely not that bad of a matchup, but as someone whose mains are Lucario/Bowser/Sheik, I honestly see Sheik vs. Bowser playing out similarly to lucario vs bowser. Bowser has to do a lot of fly swatting but then gets hit one time and never lands again. Either way Lucario's not nearly as fast so it's probably more slightly in his favor or even. But in my mind this isn't a matchup bowser wins because luc has too many ways to pick bowser apart.

 

[Hyjacked]

I'd agree with Eeveecario on the +1, as long as the Bowser is respected properly. Not respecting King Koopa's kill potential makes the matchup way harder than it needs to be, but as long as Lucario is careful about going in, he can rack up the damage easily and secure kills without too much jiggery-pokery required.