Fair warning. I'm midway through typing this and I realize that I sound like ****ing Overswarm. I normally only play mafia at night when my ADD medication is starting to or has already worn off. Tonight, I took it for the sole purpose of being able to sit down and type rather than pacing my house and dictating to Alex while ranting. I am being rather verbose and I am quite proud of my vocabulary. Sorry for the huge read, but it is packed with relevant analysis on why we should be looking where we should be looking.
For convenience, here is the possible NAR outlines for Night 2 as they are highly relevant to this post. Read it if you haven't already done so.
[collapse=Possible Night 2 Resolutions]In the Case of Nabe Town and Dark Horse Scum:
1/2.) JTB - Paralyzes Badwolf.
1/2.) Nabe - Magnetizes Dark Horse.
2/3.) Sworddancer - Delays kills targeting AM. *
3.) Badwolf28738 - EITHER toggles off protection of AM OR fails to toggle off protection due to paralysis. **
4.) Dark Horse - Fails to target town Sworddancer because of Magnetism.
4.) Aggressive Mediation - Boosts Sworddancer's speed in NAR by one.
5.) Mafia - Night kill is missing in action. ***
5.5) Potassium - Targets Gheb and fails to kill. ****
6.) Red Ruy - Targets Gheb and fails to get an investigation result.
7.) Aggressive Mediation - Does not receive any support elements.
* - This is the first time that our speed ties may matter. If Sworddancer's ability is classified as a protect, then it is boosted to even footing with any potential roleblockers. If it is classified as a miscellaneous ability such as I assume our NAR boosters are, then it would not be that fast and would instead be on even footing with Badwolf's protect.
** - I need confirmation from Badwolf. He needs to ask Gova if his toggling off is a targeted ability.
*** - Mafia night kill may not have occurred. I felt it important to leave showing its position in NAR so we know what could reasonably have caused a night kill to be interrupted.
**** - This is assuming that his kill did not actually resolve and result in the twin disappearances.
Outside of these actions Gheb and Foxy have disappeared for some unknown reason.
In the Case of Magnetize Not Stopping Dark Horse:
0.) Sworddancer - Delays kills targeting AM. *
2/3.) JTB - Paralyzes Badwolf.
2/3.) Nabe - Magnetizes Dark Horse.
4.) Badwolf28738 - EITHER toggles off protection of AM OR fails to toggle off protection due to paralysis. **
5.) Dark Horse - Causes Sworddancer to go first in NAR.
5.) Aggressive Mediation - Boosts Sworddancer's speed in NAR by one.
6.) Mafia - Night kill is missing in action. ***
6.5) Potassium - Targets Gheb and fails to kill. ****
7.) Red Ruy - Targets Gheb and fails to get an investigation result.
8.) Aggressive Mediation - Does not receive any support elements.
* - The speed here is noted as "0" instead of "1" which would typically denote the first action in NAR because it was boosted to the top of NAR and then boosted further, giving it some super priority. This is also why there is no "1" position listed. There is an entire speed rating in between Sworddancer and the rest of the NAR we know of.
** - I still need confirmation from Badwolf. Same note as last time.
*** - Again, we don't know what happened and the position should remain marked.
**** - This is assuming that his kill did not actually resolve and result in the twin disappearances.
Outside of these actions Gheb and Foxy have disappeared for some unknown reason.[/collapse]
Now, in both of these eventualities, we see a problem. In the land of milk and honey where all of us are telling the truth about everything, no one is preventing Sworddancer from delaying any kills that might target AM. In much the same way, no one is preventing AM from gaining a support ability from Sworddancer. Therein lies the contradiction and from that contradiction stems the scumbag(s).
There are a few possible explanations for this clash.
WARNING: Within the collapse tags of this post lies a wealth of information, but also a tremendous word count. I implore you to read it if you EVER want to ask why I am confident in my process of elimination. I will refer you back to something here if you pester me about it. Growing a pair of ****ing balls and reading it as well as understanding it will save us all a lot of trouble.
[collapse=The Possibility of Sworddancer or AM Lying About Their Abilities]The first two and most readily apparent ones are as follows:
1.) Sworddancer is lying and did not target AM on Night 2. Therefore, AM does not gain his ability. Sworddancer is a lying scumbag.
2.) AM is lying and did receive an ability from Sworddancer last night or does not receive abilities and made up the entire scam. Either case means AM is the lying scumbag.
Both of those hypotheses fail to pass muster. Take it with a grain of salt from one of the men involved if you want, but neither player is gunning for the other making some sort of lyncher seem an unlikely motivation and for a solo scumbag to be making the Death Star run, I hardly find setting yourself up in a direct confrontation to be the optimal solution when Sworddancer could EASILY have claimed not to have targeted AM and AM could have even more easily claimed that he did, in fact, gain Sworddancer's ability.[/collapse]
No, both of those are unlikely, despite being possible.
That means you have to look farther in. For every other possible outcome, SOMETHING must have either stopped Sworddancer's ability from targeting or resolving on AM, or something must have stopped AM from receiving Sworddancer's ability. The fact that gaining these support abilities is passive means it is more likely that Sworddancer was the one interrupted, but I'll look at it possible interruptions aimed at AM.
NOTE: Gova has confirmed for me that should my ability be negated or obscured, I would receive the same result as I would had I received no abilities. However, it is a passive ability, so I cannot be role blocked. My ability gain is considered results similar to a cop investigation. My NAR may be off as to where the ability gain lies if it is treated as an investigation, but I don't know for sure and I don't think it affects anything, so it stands for now. I'll actually look a little harder at possible AM interruptions now.
More possibilities past the readily apparent include:
1.) Someone roleblocked Sworddancer.
2.) Someone redirected Sworddancer.
3.) Someone negated AM's ability to gain abilities.
4.) Someone negated an action (or more than one action) targeting AM and caused Sworddancer's ability to fail without targeting AM.
5.) Someone negated an action (or more than one action) targeting AM and caused Sworddancer's ability to fail with an action that AM cannot support.
6.) Someone has done something to effect AM receiving results.
Dissecting these we can note a few things. Universally, it means that either Gheb and Foxy had some effect on the night phase despite their disappearance and Ruy's failed track (unlikely, imo, seeing as the influence is a fairly powerful one), or that someone here in this game is lying. The trick is figuring out who it is.
[collapse=Analysis of Possibilities Where DH and Nabe are Town]For the purpose of this analysis, I will be assuming that Dark Horse and Nabe are town. That being said, Magnetism is used on Dark Horse and does not prohibit him from pushing Sworddancer to the top of NAR. This covers one possible interaction between his ability and Nabe's which redefine the night phase.
1.) This is an impossibility. Sworddancer is moving through NAR at an infinite speed. He cannot be roleblocked.
Possible Culprits - No one
Likelihood - Impossible
2.) This is also an impossibility for the same reasons.
Possible Culprits - No one.
Likelihood - Impossible
3.) Interesting option. This would entail a role that can theoretically block passive abilities. However, it matches up with almost none of our claims. I don't think anyone here lied about their role and used the claim that they did in order to cover for this. That means that whoever did it would have to be completely unafraid of Red Ruy's ability. Anyone seen targeting AM when AM fails to receive abilities from him and Sworddancer is going to immediately have a lot of explaining to do. This means someone hella town or with an ability that makes sense being used on AM (not including Dark Horse because this example assumes he is town due to Magnetism). I won't be including Gheb because he was not tracked by Ruy and disappeared this morning. Badwolf is removed from the list unless both he and JTB are scum and lying but not trying to kill each other assuming that JTB's role takes effect the night it is used. I will denote this as an asterisk.
Possible Culprits - Sworddancer, Kantrip, Ruy, Badwolf*, Foxy (unlikely)
Likelihood - Highly unlikely. Not interested in pursuing in the slightest.
4.) This is possible for only one player. I made my latest post directed at Badwolf while typing this as he is the only one who could possibly have ****ed up in his role claim and done this as town. I mean, maybe if this is the case, he is some master plan scum, but I think that if this happens, Badwolf is just ******** and I've wasted two hours of my life because he's an idiot. I don't think there's any way for this to happen except for a toggle ability. The only toggle ability that was used on me was Badwolf's and he has claimed that it only blocks kills in an amendment. I'm asking him to double check. If he did not get his role right the second time and he could have blocked JTB, then he would not have targeted me because he didn't do anything concerning me. He only let his ability roll.
Possible Culprits - Badwolf
Likelihood - Higher than I would like to believe, but still extremely low. In any case, it can be cleared up by Badwolf posting a clarification (and a ****ing amazing apology).
5.) Maybe??? I mean, theoretically, someone could have a role that blocks abilities targeting AM that targets whoever targets him, but that seems needlessly complicated and roundabout. I would assume such a role would target AM in order to do its job. That makes the most sense and Gova isn't a complete ******.
Possible Culprits - Unimportant
Likelihood - Next to nil.
6.) Okay, now there's two that seem remotely possible. Something that stops the results of an action could theoretically hit me (similar to a role that would defeat cause a cop investigation to return no result or a tampered one). Also any ability that would delay my results (similar to JTB's ability to delay night kills) for a night or until X requirement is reached (such as a toggle like Badwolf's or the player dying) could do this. Now, once more, you would need to be unafraid of Ruy to take such a course or have an ability that makes sense targeting AM. Once more, since Dark Horse is assumed town here, he won't be the one employing this deception. I am also going to leave Gheb out as he was not tracked by Ruy and he showed up missing this morning. Badwolf is removed from the list unless both he and JTB are scum and lying but not trying to kill each other assuming that JTB's role takes effect the night it is used. I will denote this as an asterisk.
Possible Culprits - Sworddancer, Badwolf, Kantrip, Ruy, Badwolf*, Foxy (almost certainly not)
Likelihood - Unlikely, but most likely of this set of hypothetical possibilities.[/collapse]
Now, if we assume Dark Horse and Nabe are town, then the only viable scummies are... all of the people I have listed as least likely to be scum. JTB doesn't appear on any of these lists. I find it highly unlikely that he is going to have perpetrated either of the viable explanations while targeting Badwolf with an ability that apparently informs the target that they are afflicted and without any safety net from being investigated by Ruy. If it's JTB, then he has multiple abilities that he can use in one night, which is something that we have not seen from any townie thus far unless you count my ability to passively receive abilities and use one of them if I received it the previous night.
So, since I stick by my previous claim that Sword and AM do not make since as scum and I now make the assertion that these possibilities are unlikely, I must move forward in search of a viable solution.
[collapse=Analysis of Further Possibilities in the Event That DH Lied or was Redirected]Okay, so the only other alternative is that something is happening involving DH that means he did not target Sworddancer with his ability. I'll jump right into it to finish this as quickly as possible. First let's get out of the way things that could have happened and that preserve Dark Horse and Nabe's innocence. Then we'll dive right into the rest of it.
1.) Dark Horse is roleblocked and would be unaffected by Nabe's Magnet ability. He was roleblocked and therefore opened Sworddancer's ability to being tampered with.
This assumes two roleblocks/redirects running around and working in concert despite two mafia flips already. Seeing as Sworddancer was not informed of being Paralyzed, we can assume that JTB's claimed role was not used in tampering with his own. If it was him, he would need two abilities that do very similar things accessible in the same night.
After that look at the previous collapse box for people that could have affected AM's ability.
Possible Suspects: The entire cast sans Dark Horse in varying degrees of pitifully low likelihood.
Likelihood: Highly unlikely.
2.) Dark Horse is town and Nabe was roleblocked.
Yuck again. Once more a two roleblocker scenario except this time you have Sworddancer moving at light speed again. Read the previous collapse box for the possibilities.
3.) Dark Horse is redirected.
See Dark Horse roleblocked.
4.) Nabe is redirected.
See Nabe roleblocked.
~Now for the real meat of the issue~
3.) Dark Horse is town. Nabe is scum.
Nabe is lying. He uses his Magnet ability to prevent DH from targeting Sworddancer and uses a different ability or has a second scum tamper with either Sworddancer or myself.
Possible Suspects: Nabe + a second ability or Nabe + another scum.
Likelihood: Fair. I don't like the idea of mafia Nabe having two abilities so similar in use even if it is feasible that he made a mistake and caught himself in claiming given how complicated the interaction is. I don't think it's necessarily likely, but it's far better than the rest of these possibilities.
4.) Nabe is town. Dark Horse is scum.
Dark Horse is confirmed to have a Wind ability. If he was afflicted with Magnetism and targeted Sworddancer, his ability would not be able to hit Sworddancer. As such, a DIFFERENT SCUM would have had to tamper with Sworddancer's ability meaning we have two scum working in concert during the last night. A second scum could theoretically be boosted by Dark Horse to be sure that he out sped Sworddancer. Either that, or something would have had to happen to boost Dark Horse's speed in NAR. Redirecting AM's supported wind element would not be enough. This means he would likely have had to target himself with his NAR boost AND have an ability able to tamper with Sworddancer or AM's role.
Possible Suspects: Dark Horse + another scum or Dark Horse + NAR boost and a second ability.
Likelihood: Also fair. I find this one unlikely as well. Despite it needing another requirement, I don't find this less likely than the last possibility. The only reason is that we already know Dark Horse has the ability to boost a player in NAR.[/collapse]
End result, I don't like any of these options. This has been a free flowing dump of my thought process on the matter of the missing support ability. I don't like any of these possibilities.
The best two outcomes I came up with are DH or Nabe scum and both of them require some pretty unreal abilities from a single scum or coordination with a fourth scum.
One final outing into the realm of possibility and I'm done. No fancy culprit and likelihood analysis this time because it's actually very vague ideas that render the original conflict a moot point. The first occurred to me before I had finished when I realized, in the last few analyses, that I was not on the path of turning up a concrete answer. The rest occurred to me when I was making the conclusion in the paragraph directly above this one when I thought about Nabe town and DH scum again.
Since this will be short, I won't make a collapse.
1.) The roleblocking ability in question did not target anyone. Instead, it was a global role stopper.
The entire night phase was doomed to fail from the start. Someone pulled the plug and every night action was stopped. This came to mind as I could not find any specific action that was confirmed to have taken place despite the fact that we had confirmation of 4 different abilities. If anyone can confirm that their action took place, this can be blown out of the water, but I don't have any such confirmation and cannot think of one whose results we have witnessed. The only things that discredit this theory are the announcement that Badwolf is town and the missing neighborhood. However, this would clear up multiple discrepancies. Sworddancer's ability not materializing for AM despite him being boosted by Dark Horse. Ruy receiving no results from his investigation. The mafia night kill not showing up. Kantrip's kill not showing up. Badwolf receiving no notification of JTB's paralysis. It's a tinfoil hat theory, but if everything goes swimmingly from now on, this could be something to look back on.
2.) The remaining scum are a second mafia team.
FF8 all over again. Would allow for two players to have worked in concert to tamper with multiple slots. This would actually be horrible as it would turn my reads on their head. The bright side of this outcome is that the game PROBABLY wouldn't include an indy or, at the very least, not one that kills (or abducts). My picks here would be a DH/JTB team, a Nabe/JTB team, or a DH/Nabe team. The latter is probably the easiest to fake. If we lynch Nabe or DH and they flip scum, revisit this because then it will make a lot more sense than the rest of the things I've looked at. Note, this is assuming you don't have further evidence that it isn't an Indy that you should be searching for at that point. That conclusion is made looking at one possible eventuality in the future with only the information at present.
3.) The remaining scum include an indy duo.
This could be Gheb/Foxy or any of my two mafiat picks. Add Gheb and Foxy to the mix if this seems to be the case and otherwise look at the second mafia team picks. Note that if two people not Gheb/Foxy flip as an indy duo and the game isn't over, then if Gheb/Foxy come back, they are not ANOTHER scum team. You're looking for one scum. For reasons I have previously stated a million times with Kantrip, I don't think it's Gheb and definitely don't think it's Foxy. All things considered, I highly doubt this one. I mention it only for completion's sake alongside the second mafia team option in case it's functionally a second mafia team that is referred to as independent.
In any case, I am going to investigate further. I will still finish my notes with Alex, but I will also see if I can pull up two players acting in unison outside of Gheb/Foxy.
This is where I close my analysis of the second solid lead we have. I have found nothing conclusive in the claim clash between Sworddancer and AM. The other solid lead, the missing mafia night kill, I went into far less detail on. Partially because I was not focusing as hard at that point and partially because I thought that it was the only possible lead and therefore the only thing that needed exploring and that I had the time. When I got confirmation that I was wrong and that the discrepancy between Swords and I still stood, I got excited and abandoned my previous ideas. I will be delving back into the that lead either today, tomorrow, or the next day. I have work tomorrow, so I'm not sure when I will be done dissecting it.
