Elements and Attributes Mafia - Game Over!

[Kantrip]

Claim Analysis

1. Nabe replaces Handorin - Magnetism, Target can only target people of their own alignment
2. BadWolf28738 - Earth Element, target is immune to all Night actions
3. Aggressive Mediation (Ryker/WashedLaundry) - Support Attribute, gains a weaker one-shot version of any ability used on them
4. Dark Horse - Wind Element, Makes actions go first in NAR
5. Gheb_01 - ????, Neighbour with Foxy
6. JTB - Thunder, Target can only target themselves
8. Potassium - Plant Attribute, 50% vig
9. Sworddancer. - Water Element, Slows down projectiles used on his target for one Night
10. Red Ruy - Darkness Element, Tracker/Reporter
12. Foxy the Silver Fox (Anomandaris_Rake/Ranmaru) - ????, Neighbour with Gheb

Nabe
Night 1: Tried to target Gheb but was paralyzed
Night 2: Targeted Dark Horse

Badwolf
Night 1: Targeted AM
Night 2: Targeted no one

AM
Night 1: Recieved a Rock, Water, and Wind ability.
Night 2: Received nothing, used Wind ability on Sword (

Dark Horse
Night 1: Targeted AM
Night 2: Targeted Sword

Gheb
Disappeared at the start of Night 2

JTB
Night 1: Targeted Nabe
Night 2: Targeted Badwolf

Potassium
Night 1: Targeted Gheb
Night 2: Targeted Gheb

Sword
Night 1: Targeted AM
Night 2: Targeted AM

Red Ruy
Night 1: Targeted Foxy, Tracked them going nowhere
Night 2: Targeted Gheb, did not get any result back

Foxy
Disappeared at the start of Night 2




What We Know
Foxy and Gheb are claimed neighbours. Neighbours don't share actions used on them, but both of these players went missing at the same time. The source of their disappearance is most likely from themselves.

Red Ruy did not get any result when trying to target Gheb last Night. This confirms that Gheb and Foxy were NOT here during the Night phase, so they could not have used any other actions.

Nabe was informed of paralysis Night 1, but Badwolf was not informed of Paralysis Night 2.

AM receiving the 3 abilities they did confirms Sword, Dark Horse, and Badwolf have the flavours they claimed and did target AM Night 1.

AM failing to receive anything Night 2 contradicts Sword claiming he targeted them.

Dark Horse and AM both Hasted Sword Night 2, which means his action should have undoubtedly gone first in the NAR.

Nabe Targeted Dark Horse Night 2, which means Dark Horse's action only went through if him and Sword are the same alignment.


Someone being Magnetized was revealed to us after N1. Badwolf being Town aligned was revealed to us after N2. Source unknown.

There was no Night Kill Night 2.

Contradictions and Discrepancies in bold.



This is the raw facts. I'll get to the implications and my reads after dinner.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Shouldn't Wind then still make you go first?

 

[Kantrip]

Oh I see.

JTB targeted BW Night 2, so BW couldn't toggle off AM. Thus AM was still unable to be effected by other roles because of BW's power.

This does leave the question of NAR though. BW's powers seem like powers that would take place early in NAR, but of course I can't say for sure.

When BW toggled on AM N1, AM still got all three of the powers used on him.

BW's power makes abilities used on his target fail, but they still target them.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

If Sword's power went off Badwolf toggling on AM would have been delayed a night along with everything else.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

I'll double check role wording (get Alex to do so). If Badwolf's role takes effect the night it was used and we don't receive actions when it is toggled on, then it takes place late in NAR.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

If Sword's power went off Badwolf toggling on AM would have been delayed a night along with everything else.

Or that. That makes more sense.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Wait, I'm not sure my role works like that. Let me check.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Badwolf, you didn't get any notification of the paralyze N2?

 

[Kantrip]

If Sword's power went off Badwolf toggling on AM would have been delayed a night along with everything else.

But AM got the Rock and Wind power N1, those weren't delayed

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I shot Gova a question just to be sure, but in my role PM it explicitly states that I delay death for a Night. I don't think anything else would be delayed.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Then we have a conflict in claims.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Where is that?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

DH speeded up Swords.
Swords should have gone first in NAR.
So Badwolf shouldn't have worked on stopping that yes?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Hmmmmm. Some possibilities:

-BW's ability actually goes late in NAR, thus allowing other people to target AM before his ability actually takes effect. By Night 2, BW's toggle was still on, thus no one's role could have effected AM thus meaning that AM wouldn't get any powers.
-Nabe is telling the truth and DH is a different alignment than me, thus he was unable to haste me Night 2.
-Nabe's lying about the nature of his role, and he's actually responsible for making so that people could not target AM.
-JTB's lying about who he targeted. Instead, he actually targeted DH, and somehow I was roleblocked.
-I'm lying about the nature of my role and/or I did not target AM Night 2.

I'm thinking Nabe right now. Remember that Nabe was supposedly paralyzed Night 1 and yet the mod announced in thread that someone was magnetized at the start of Day 2. Was the mod referring to Nabe himself? Furthermore, why didn't the mod announce someone being magnetized at the start of Day 3 if Nabe targeted DH? Atm Nabe's role seems the shakiest to me.

Feel free to point out any logical errors I may have made in my analysis and also add any other possibilities that I haven't realized yet.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Btw Gova just got back to me and confirmed that my role only delays death and nothing else.

 

[#HBC | Dark Horse]

Swords, if nabe is telling the truth, thenwe are the same alignment. I'm also willing to bet that that announcement wasn't of nabe's control.

-BW's ability actually goes late in NAR, thus allowing other people to target AM before his ability actually takes effect. By Night 2, BW's toggle was still on, thus no one's role could have effected AM thus meaning that AM wouldn't get any powers.

This is what I'm thinking right now. Notice how badwolf's action was a switch, and not the action itself.

 

[Kantrip]

Badwolf's ability was also a toggle, which means he might not be informed he was paralyzed because he wasn't targeting with his ability.

I'm pretty sure we're looking for a third mafia and an indy. I think Gheb is the third mafia, and the indy is between Nabe/JTB.

 

[Kantrip]

Vote JTB

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

The mod has confirmed to me that I was able to untoggle AM last Night.

Hope that clears some stuff up.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Oh, and it only immunes them to NK's. I don't read things fully.

 

[Kantrip]

Wait so... all actions other than NKs should go through on your target?

Unvote

 

[Kantrip]

Hmmmmm. Some possibilities:

-BW's ability actually goes late in NAR, thus allowing other people to target AM before his ability actually takes effect. By Night 2, BW's toggle was still on, thus no one's role could have effected AM thus meaning that AM wouldn't get any powers.

Now ruled out from Badwolf changing his claim.

-Nabe is telling the truth and DH is a different alignment than me, thus he was unable to haste me Night 2.

AM also hasted you, so this doesn't explain it.

-Nabe's lying about the nature of his role, and he's actually responsible for making so that people could not target AM.

Still possible.

-JTB's lying about who he targeted. Instead, he actually targeted DH, and somehow I was roleblocked.

AM also hasted you, so this doesn't explain it.

-I'm lying about the nature of my role and/or I did not target AM Night 2.

Possible but not in my consideration.



Is Nabe lying really the only explanation? Surely we're missing possibilities?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Wait so... all actions other than NKs should go through on your target?

Unvote

Yeah pretty much.

 

[Kantrip]

Nabe scum, AM scum, Sword scum, and Badwolf scum are all possibilities that could clean up the contradictions, I guess.

Nabe's just the only one I can see being the case.

Vote: Nabe

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

This is why I don't like nonvinilla games. =/

@Kantrip: Since AM's power would be watered down we don't know if his haste would actually prevent me from being roleblocked.

There are technically a lot of other possibilities, but I'm sure they won't be popular. There's the case we're AM is lying about not getting a power last Night for whatever reason. There's also the possibility that one of Kantrip or RR is lying about their roles and actions (and really this can apply to anyone).

Really starting to think that we're not going to be able to find the last mafia/indie from just guessing off of claims. Instead some good old fashioned scumhunting is needed.

Which honestly just points us back to Nabe, JTB and maybe DH.

Going off claims alone though I would still say Nabe.

 

[Kantrip]

JTB has pure inactivity and nothing else.
Hando had some whack reads that made me think his scumhunting was legit, but I didn't see him on a team with Joker. Hando/Nabe has always been my indy pick so I'm reverting to that.

 

[Kantrip]

EBWOP: that made me think his scumhunting was not legit*

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

starting to think that we're not going to be able to find the last mafia/indie from just guessing off of claims. Instead some good old fashioned scumhunting is needed.

This.

Also for the record. For about 2 minutes, I chewed on the idea of claiming to have Sword's ability on N2 so as to avoid this mess. However, I decided not to take the gamble on the off chance it would blow up in my face.

I need to read the entire game with Alex. I am going to condense things into a post full of notes and then from that pull out a direction. I am, for once in my life, not going to flood the thread with responses to the entire game.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

90% sure that we're the source of the contradiction. I was wrong. We do not lose the ability at the end of the night phase, I don't believe. We do lose the ability after we use it. This means that we may not be able to stock the same ability twice. Will ask Gova for confirmation, but that probably clears it up and brings it back to Nabe vs. JTB.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

I may have something. Going down the possibles with Alex Want to know where the hell the mafia night kill was tonight.

Don't like the direction this train of thought is going at all.

 

[Kantrip]

Gheb Mafia wouldn't be able to send in a kill since he was not in the NAR

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Okay. Last night, the flip was no death, but Gheb and Foxy both went missing. Currently, in the first post, both slots are still in the "alive" category of the player list. I asked Gova if this was intentional and was met with a "no comment."

Question: where did the night kill go?
Answer: 1 of 4 possibilities.

Factor 1: Mafia attempted to night kill AM and was blocked by Badwolf.
Factor 2: Mafia tried to night kill AM and was blocked by Sworddancer, depending on the timing of Badwolf's untoggle. This might mean we die in the morning. Yikes.
Factor 3: The night kill was an ambiguous jan of sorts that affected both Gheb and Foxy. If this is the case, then Gheb/Foxy are probably lifelinked.
Factor 4: Gheb and Foxy removed themselves from NAR and the mafia night kill went up in smoke.

These are the four possibilities assuming that everyone here is telling the truth about their night action; however, I find all four of these possibilities to be highly unlikely. F1 and F2 would require the mafia to target AM, who has made plain that he is some sort of self-watcher and that he has been protected by multiple roles and has asked for protection again on that night phase. I don't see anyone left in the game making that shot and in mass claim the only one to have claimed to have targeted us was Sworddancer.

Note: we do not know where Gheb or Foxy may or may not have wanted to target; however, I especially fail to see either of them as dense enough to try to make that shot. We're probably looking at a solo mafiat left and the risk of discovery means the risk of losing the game.

F3 I find unlikely because of how redundant it seems. Why in the world would you have a janitor in a game with partial flips? Past that, Gheb was catching a lot of flak going into that nightphase. Why in the world would you target him with a night kill as mafia? On the other side, you have Foxy who similarly seems like an abysmal target with Ruy hardcrumbing investigative and Kantrip running around as obvtown on everyone's lists.

F4 seems unlikely for the same targeting conundrum.

Now, if we are to assume that someone here is lying about their role, that opens up more possibilities. Those I find much more probable. These possibilities:

Factor 5: There is an abductor in our midst with a faster NAR resolution than mafia Gheb. Gheb and Foxy are still lifelinked under this assumption.
Factor 6: Gheb and Foxy removed themselves from NAR and there is an indy out there with a bulletproof.
Factor 7: There is an abductor out there who targeted Gheb or Foxy and is bulletproof thus leaving the mafiat among us having shot at the abductor.

Now you can see where I'm going with this. The mafia night kill is a constant that we know of. It has to have gone somewhere. I don't see any of the possibilities that do not assume independent interference as likely in the slightest and if we're to assume an indy I feel it can only be one of two options. Either an independent abductor which has caused this disappearance that does not confirm dead or independent lovers. I don't think we have some sort of survivor indy given the claims that we have if it isn't the claimed neighborhood; however, lovers does not account for the missing mafia nightkill. Therefore, what we are looking at is whether or not we can limit the possibilities on the abductor's identity.

If Gheb is mafia, that opens the door to a few more possibilities but if we're being real, I don't think we're dealing with a ******* modded game where a townie can be lifelinked to a mafia. I don't buy it. I think the last mafia is out and about. That being said, without some sort of role cop or other information source, the only two feasible targets are Ruy and Kantrip. They cannot afford to shoot in their pool of possible mislynches and they can't afford to shoot at AM. Outside doubt at Sworddancer, but I don't think they pull the trigger after the protective instructive we gave at the end of D2. With role information, the only role I can see as threatening to them enough to want to kill is Badwolf but once more, I think his role on its own merit is enough to take him all the way to LyLo.

So, let's look at our candidates.

Red Ryu, the Darkness Element.
Kantrip, the Plant Attribute.

Compare and contrast.

Ruy is our only claimed investigative. The only other possible investigative is either in the neighborhood, which I find unlikely, or S&C, who died N1. The latter, however, does have a shred of possibility to it. Overall, I can't much complain about his play. I'm townreading him.

Kantrip. This man I have been townreading so hard. I thought he was the town doctor on D2. That interaction with the league pictures is proof of that. He is 100% bonafide not-mafia and until now I was taking that to the bank; however, his claim is hella sketchy. 50/50 vig, claims to have targeted Gheb both nights. It's weird that he chose Gheb N1 over our group of inactives--Hando, JTB, FF in particular. Night 2, we still had JTB present as well. Again, I cannot point to much in his play that jumps out and says "I'm scummy" but that's because he is 100% not mafia. What I can point to is that, right now, he's indy hunting. If he's the abductor, he's confident that he has caught the last mafiat in Gheb and that would explain why he chose to abduct him. He is also the one to disregard Gheb and Foxy's disappearance and claim that it is of their own doing.

The long story short is, I think there's an abductor and process of elimination says it's Kantrip.

Discuss.

vote: Kantrip

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

[collapse=our notes up to #142]#16-17 (JTB): Holy ****, ***** got balls. Point in JTB’s favor, not leaving a backdoor for his claim.

#18 (Hando): Also a crumb? Half a point, unsure.

#28 (Kantrip): Early vote on PJB. Possible scum distancing? Related to exchange in 22-24. Weird.

#34 (Sword): Neutral point.

#35 (Foxy): Foxy hesitating to join PJB wagon. States it’s because he felt that was a bait by Kantrip.

#38 (Hando): Definitely crumbed his role early.

#41 (Foxy): Foxy still defending PJB. “Doesn’t see the merit”--probably dumb over scum.

#42 (Gheb): Infamous Gheb post where he hands reigns to Swiss. Also note that he makes potshot at Laundry head of AM in final paragraph.

#51 (PJB): Remind me that if PJB ever says the word “y’know”, he’s scum.

#54-56 (PJB): PJB takes a swipe at Gheb; no real bite behind it.

Note: I think I want to murder Red Ruy for his “leader” shenanigans. In hindsight, that urge has not gone away.

#69 (JTB): Jumps on PJB wagon, no actual stated reason. Neutral point, probably caught the drift too.

Addendum: That post puts PJB at L-2.

~#87 (PJB): Around these parts and others, PJB has made constant complaints about his wagon but doesn’t interact with anyone on it. Most connections stem from how people are treating the wagon itself over him interacting with others. Most telling is the swipe at Gheb, but it’s small. Paper trail has not started yet?

#102 (Legolas): I immediately start disliking this slot as soon as Xonar replaces in. Sketchy Ruy call out.

#105 (Badwolf): Weird post is weird. Ambigious thread control answer that uses AM’s name and grimy noncommital attitude towards PJB wagon.


#111 (JTB): Rather than addressing PJB actions, he starts calling out Foxy on his Kantrip wagon. I don’t see harm in it though--at the time, I was skeptical of Foxy’s defense of him myself.

#114 (Hando): HANDO. STOP. CRUMBING.

#119 (PJB): Still ******** about sheeping, no actual paper trails yet.

#129 (Gheb): “Anyone who still thinks the PJB lynch isn’t a good lynch now is counterfactual imo.” Noted.

#139 (Gheb): He’s...giving advice to PJB on how to save himself. wat

#141-142 (PJB+FF): Dig at Gheb again. Still no real commitment here.[/collapse]

We'll get to the rest of this later.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

ebwop: **** it

**** this site

**** this formatting

**** everything

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

He means:

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Nah, I mean this:

 

[Kantrip]

Well that came out of left field.

Just to get this straight: You think I'm an indy abductor who got no one N1 but N2 I took lifelinked townFoxy and townGheb out of the game? And what do you think happened to the NK, with this theory?

 

[Kantrip]

I think it's silly that you think I would abduct Gheb when he was easily the scummiest slot in the game.

I also don't get your qualms with my claim. It would be dumb to claim a role that can if I want to live until the end of the game and don't have the means to back that up.

I've been looking for an indy because I am dead-set on Gheb being scum.

 

[Kantrip]

EBWOP: a role that can kill*

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

It was aimed at you. That's fairly clear in our outline of the situation. That, or mafia Gheb was abducted before he shot.

As for night one, we've ruled it down to three possibilities.

1.) You really are 50-50. Whether that means 50-50 failure/success and failed to hit anyone or 50-50 kill/abduct and you ended up targetting either us or S&C with a kill that either failed or overlapped with the mafia's, I don't know.
2.) You were roleblocked by FrozenFlame or the other mafiat.
3.) You targeted S&C and the mafia night kill canned him either before or after he was abducted.

And yeah, it pretty much was out of left field. Probably the biggest "Oh ****" moment since Gheb in FFT Mafia discounting the moment where Murderbush realized there was two mafias and that we were in a neighborhood with one on the night we were killed.