Ever since Mewtwo has been confirmed for DLC everyone wants to believe that their most wanted character will join the battle in SSB4 as a downloadable fighter. After confirming Mewtwo's arrival in the 50-Fact Extravaganza, it was later revealed that Lucas, who failed to be in the initial SSB4 roster, was going to be released as a DLC fighter in order to satisfy those who missed him. It also has been confirmed that more DLC fighters are coming later, and Nintendo put an official ballot online in order to allow fans to suggest new character ideas directly to them!
We don't exactly know how the DLC newcomers will be chosen, but knowing that a lot of people missed Lucas and an official ballot has been added online, we can assume that Nintendo will try to satisfy their fans as much as possible by adding popular choices. Then again, will a character's popularity alone will allow it to be a DLC fighter? Or maybe there are other criteria?
I think that most people who joined Smashboards before SSB4's release to speculate about its roster were familiar with the Rate Their Chances game, whose purpose was to determine who were the most likely newcomers, so we could later compare our results with what actually happened, and laugh at how we were wrong. Of course some characters like Little Mac and Palutena were considered as extremely likely and became eventually playable newcomers, but at the same time we gave high chances to characters like Chrom and King K. Rool but they're not playable, while we highly underestimated chances for Rosalina and Duck Hunt (referred as Duck Hunt Dog before his confirmation), and Greninja wasn't even considered!
Now the purpose of this thread is to determine who are the most likely characters to join the battle after the game's release thanks to DLCs, according to fans. In order to participate to the project, post your own DLC likeliness chart using the tier system shown bellow, and I'm regularly going to update a general DLC likeliness chart taking into account everyone's expectations. (I'll not put in the general chart characters listed only in a few ones.)
Currently confirmed DLC fighters:
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Mewtwo was the first DLC character revealed in the 50-Fact Extravaganza, even before the Wii U version launched. This thread was created after his confirmation, which means
he wasn't rated.
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Lucas was the second DLC character to be revealed in the April 2015 Direct. Prior to his confirmation, we rated him
B tier.
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Roy was the third DLC character revealed; we first found evidence of him through data files found in the 1.0.6 update, before his former reveal in the June Smash DLC presentation. We weren't confident about him at all due to redundancy concerns, and we put him in
D tier. Failing in our predictions is part of the magic of speculation, isn't it?
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Ryu was the fourth DLC character revealed; similar to Roy, evidence of him was found in the 1.0.6 update, then he was officially revealed in the same presentation as him. This one completely caught us off-guard because we generally didn't consider him as a contender; as such
he wasn't even rated!
The different tiers which will be used for this thread are the following: SSS; S; A; B; C; D; E; F. Try to be consistent with this chart system so I can easily take into account your opinion. Here are suggested benchmarks:
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SSS: extremely likely, almost a shoo-in (~95%)
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S: very likely, actually more likely than not (~55%)
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A: fairly likely, close to a coin flip (~40%)
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B: solid chance, but not exactly likely (~25%)
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C: solid chance, but will most likely not happen (~15%)
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D: possible, but very low chance (~5%)
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E: possible, but extremely low chance (~1%)
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F: pipe dream, borderline negligible chance (~0.1%)
you don't need to put a bunch of deconfirmed characters such as Chrom and Ridley in this tier.
The goal is not to create a want chart. I you want to vote for your favourite DLC choices I suggest you to visit this thread. Also try to be as unbiased as possible - don't put your most wanted in A or above just because it's your most wanted. You're free to explain some of your choices, but please respect the opinion of other people and don't let this thread turn into an endless debate or flame war. If you changed your mind just repost and specify that it's not your first post here, but try to at least wait a little before reposting
Current general chart
None for now. With a new reboot I'm waiting for more votes to create one.
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So I'm going to post my own expectation chart:
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SSS tier:
Wolf
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S tier:
... nothing.
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A tier:
Captain Toad
Dixie Kong
King K. Rool
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B tier:
Bandanna Dee
Marshal/Chorus Kids/whatever from Rhythm Heaven
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C tier:
Isaac
Impa
Ivysaur
Krystal
Paper Mario
Squirtle
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D tier:
4th Mii Fighter
Chibi-Robo
Inkling
New Sonic series character
Pichu
Professor Layton
Rayman
Solid Snake
Wonder Red
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E tier:
Banjo-Kazooie
Bayonetta
Codename S.T.E.A.M. character
Daisy
Ice Climbers
Sceptile
Toon Zelda
Young Link
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F tier:
Globox
Magikarp
Shantae
Tetris Block
Tharja
... and Conker in FFF minus downright impossible pipe dream tier.
Edit 01/10/2015: updated my chart for the first time, here are the changes I did
Edit 01/13/2015: changed Krystal's rating
Edit 01/24/2015: put Krystal back to D tier, here's by reasoning
Edit 04/05/2015: major update for my chart, here are the changes I did
Edit 04/09/2015: added Paper Mario
Edit 06/16/2015: major update for my chart, here are the chances I did
Now I'll try to keep being consistent with my support towards this thread. I'm going to update my own chart soon!
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