Alright so I just wanted to make a comprehensive list of characters that could possibly be in contention for the coveted clone spots. I'm trying to keep everything all in one place and filter out the ones that won't even cross the PMBR's mind... Some things to keep in mind:
1. Roy, and any quality character would take at least 700 hours to make, especially because of animations. That's why clonses/partial clones are the most appealing. Despite a lot of people's distaste for clones, this seems to be huge pro for any character to be in P:M
2. P:M is not an official Smash. So it's possible that characters that would not be possible for SSB Wii/3DS might just be possible because of fan support and maybe the cloneability. Geno, for an example, was for whatever reasons a popular fan character (although I personally do not care for him at all) back in the Brawl days.
3. Adding a new character with the clone engine takes a ton of work, so they better be well worth the effort. For that reason, I won't even mention obscure characters that have no big reason to join the cast, or characters that have more deserving spots in their series (i.e. any random ass Sonic character that's not Tails, Knuckles, or even Shadow)
4. This is a Nintendo game, so third party characters shouldn't be getting that much attention regardless (i.e. no need to have 3 Sonic characters). Also copyright/C&D issues.
5. I'll frequently reference a character's odds of making it into Wii/3DS, because character that will probably make it (like Little Mac) should be avoided for C&D reasons. If I don't mention it, then the odds are right between "likely" and "unlikely." I also reference if a character has been in Brawl in some form or another (sticker, trophy, etc), also for C&D reasons.
There are 7 clone slots. I doubt all of them will be used. So with that said, I'll be summarizing up some of the characters that have been mentioned by at least more than one person and grading how good of a candidate they are for the P:M team. I'll look at three categories and giving them three grades (A-C):
Value - how much value do they have as a character, as a mascot, as an iconic character of their series, etc... basically how much they deserve to be in Smash
A: Iconic character or brings a lot to the table
B: Fairly important character... or an iconic character, but in a saturated series (Pokemon, Mario).. or has some other minor flaw
C: Not very important
Effort - how much work would it take to make this character? I'm just giving an estimate here...
A: As easy as can get. Pretty much a clone, or very simple animations. Having an established moveset helps too.
B: Will take some work and creativity. Significant animation work
C: Need to develop from scratch and take a ton of time. Is this even worth it??
So here's the list...
Pichu (Pokemon)
Value - C
Effort - A
The only other clone. I highly doubt Pichu, like Dr. Mario, will make it in, since he is extremely unpopular. He's also in a super-saturated series (especially after adding Mewtwo). The mindset I would think PMBR is: "What will everyone's reaction be if we announce Pichu? 'Oh, great, Pichu -- the last clone I wanted,' would be the majority, and we just spent 700 goddamn hours making this furball." He'll probably be a special alternate costume if anything, like Dr. Mario has been recently revealed to be.
Black Shadow (F-Zero) and
Ganondorf (Legend of Zelda)
A two-in-one package where the current Falcon-clone Ganondorf will be reskinned to his archnemesis Black Shadow, and the clone slot will be used to recreate Ganondorf using available models
Value - A - Many people have wanted a true-to-Ganondorf Ganondorf, and while not as many, people have also asked for more F-Zero representation.
Effort - B - Ganondorf will need all new animations and projectiles.
Black Shadow - Black Shadow is Captain Falcon's archnemesis, first appearing in F-Zero X. F-Zero is actually a pretty sizeable franchise, with at least 5 games, more than Star Fox (3 characters) and Mother (2 characters), yet it only has 1 character. If it were to have another, there are 3 main candidates: Samurai Goroh (Falcon's rival from the very first game), Blood Falcon (his clone), and Black Shadow. Samurai Goroh, while already an assist trophy, would require a lot of work. Blood Falcon is already a costume for Falcon, and he doesn't add much. Black Shadow, on the other hand, fits the villain role, and due to his dark and evil character, perfectly fits the playstyle of the current Ganondorf, down to the shadow side-effects. And of course, he's significant in the story.
Ganondorf - Many people, including me, have been disappointed at Ganondorf being a clone of Captain Falcon because that is not how his character works in the Zelda games. While Captain Falcon has never been seen outside his car (allowing the developers to be creative with his moveset), Ganondorf HAS. He's either using magic (OoT) or swords (WW, TP) when fighting Link. A lot of people don't want to see another sword-user, so his sword could be restricted to a few of his moves. One idea that have been thrown around is his signature electric attack from OoT (neutral B - chargeable like in the game). Like Zelda, the rest of his moves can be creative. Perhaps a down B could be a chargeable attack where he raises his fist in front of his face, charges, and then releases a blast from the the Triforce of Power, knocking everyone in a radius back.
In general, the most opposition to this idea are players who like Ganondorf just the way he is and can't see him in any other form (despite him being much different in his actual games)
Pros
-Relatively easy to implement - part of it is just a texture reskinning, the other part is using a fully established model and giving it a new moveset and animations.
-Can rectify one of the most complained about clone implementations
-Gives F-Zero a much needed character
Cons
-Some resistance to changing Ganondorf
-Will have to create moveset from scratch. He has some established moves though.
Lyn (Fire Emblem)
A popular FE lord, female character, and assist trophy
Value - B - Another sword user in a saturated series (Fire Emblem). However, fairly popular, and is one of the top candidates if FE were to get another character, if not the top choice
Effort - C - Will need new animations.
Background - While not the main character of the US's first Fire Emblem game (that goes to Eliwood), Lyn is the first lord you get to play, and she's pretty damn popular. She also has a unique sword-style that can make her different than all the sword users. Also a bow user, so we might be able to vary her moveset up a bit. See Chrono's post for an example moveset. While I can say with absolute certainty she won't make it in SSB Wii/3DS, her popularity with fans here make her a candidate for a P:M slot (and actually, not being in Wii/3DS is a bonus because we won't have to deal with copyright issues).
Pros
-One of the most popular FE lords
-Unique sword style differentiates her from other FE lords
-Female - diversity FTW
-Assist trophy
-Will almost definitely not be in Wii/3DS
Cons
-Will require quite of bit of work, including custom sound effects.
-Moveset must be designed from scratch.
-Already have 3 Fire Emblem characters, and one of the clone spots goes to a FE character already
-While popular among FE characters, is she very popular overall?
Hector (Fire Emblem)
Can't mention Lyn without mentioning her axe-wielding comrade lord from the same game
Value - C - Lyn is generally more popular. Eliwood is the main character, Lyn is the first lord, but Hector (while being the third lord) is probably the third main character and requires his mode to be unlocked. While still extremely important in his own game, in the broad scope of Smash Bros and all that is Nintendo, he's not that important.
Effort - C - From scratch, completely.
The third lord of Fire Emblem (the Sealed Sword). You don't actually get to play his storyline you unlock his mode after beating the game. There are two main reasons people want him: 1) "He has an axe!" (making him different than other characters) and 2) "He's my favorite lord!" (I'm not kidding). They are actually quite legit, but compared to the other applications here, they kind of pale in comparison. He doesn't have an assist trophy, and his moveset would be have to be even more built up from nothing. His main competition is Lyn, and that's a tough one to beat.
Pros
-Most popular after Lyn, I believe
-The AXE
-Will almost definitely not be in Wii/3DS
Cons
-Inferior to Lyn in terms of iconic weight/importance and possibly popularity
-Not very popular outside of Fire Emblem
-Will require a lot of work.
-Already 3 Fire Emblem characters, and one of the clone engine spots goes to a FE character already
-Moveset must be designed from scratch.
Sukapon/Skapon (Joy Mech Fight)
The pink robot from Nintendo's first fighting game
Value - A - One of the Nintendo's few games to be represented in Smash, and it also happens to be Nintendo's first fighting game. Has a lot of game-introducing power to those unfamiliar with the game, similar to Ness, Marth/Roy, Ice Climbers, and Game & Watch.
Effort - C - Easy model, but difficult unique animations and skeletal structure (updated from Silentd00m and cmart)
Background - Joy Mech Fight was Nintendo's first fighting game... but unfortunately it was one of those games that A) never made it to the US and B) came at the end of a console's lifespan (often a death sentence). The game itself played like Street Fighter II controls-wise, and all the robots had no joints, allowing it to be smooth even on the NES. Its storyline was a super ripoff from Mega Man, with an evil scientist making robots go crazy, and the good doc brings a non-combat robot, Skapon (whose main job is to entertain as a comedian) to fight and save the day. But given that the PMBR won't add Mega Man for copyright reasons, the ripoff is almost poetic if Skapon is added in lieu of Mega Man's absence. One of the biggest drawbacks is that I feel he might actually be a very likely candidate for SSB Wii/3DS as one of Sakurai's obligatory "surprise!!--who the hell are you!?" characters (Ness, Mr. G&W, ROB), which might potentially cause issues down the line if the work is already said and done. But that's very speculative at this point.
Pros
-Untouched franchise that can pay homage to Nintendo's first fighting game and also has the ability to expose players (like how many of us learned about Earthbound, Ice Climbers, Fire Emblem, Game & Watch, and more)
-Existing moveset from his original game to base moves off of
-Fitting Mega Man "replacement" (in spirit)
-Easy sounds to make
-Sticker in Brawl (makes him eligible, for copyright issues)
Cons
-Difficult animations
-Not very popular, but unlike other candidates (*cough*Waluigi*cough*), is not actually hated either... more just not very well known, which is also a pro (see above)
-Fairly good possibility of being in Smash Bros Wii/3DS
-Joy Mech Fight is relatively obscure, so it's not like he's representing a popular franchise
Waluigi (Mario Bros / Wario?)
WAAAHHH!! When will he appear in anything OTHER than a party game!?
Value - C - Never the main character of any game, the main villain of any game, or even a major supporting character of any game... but WAAAHH!!
Effort - B or A -- depending on if using PSA's developed outside of the PMBR (of course modifying it to fit in P:M's standards) is an option. Either way, he's also an assist trophy, and many of his animations can be easily based off the Mario Bros.
Background - I don't think I need to say much about Waluigi. Everyone knows who he is. He's easily one of the most divisive characters for speculation, and for what it's worth, that's a big con. It's not to the PMBR's benefit to spend a lot of time working on a character that at most half of the community would enjoy. HOWEVER, Waluigi has been getting a lot of work done outside of the PMBR, by Marioking64 (see his
videos) and KingJigglypuff As one of the few characters to get such a well-executed PSA, and considering that all 7 slots probably won't be used, if the PMBR can use their work and port it to P:M standards, it could be a really quick job (again, assuming this is possible). Even I (who thinks Waluigi shouldn't be in) would have no complaints.
Pros
-Has one of the most developed PSA's out there -- Check this out!
-If the PSA is really well-developed, PMBR can hopefully use most of the work (obviously to MarioKing64DS/KingJigglpuff's credit) and do some changes to put him in P:M with relatively little work compared to other characters.
-Adds a little completion to the roster to give Wario a counterpart
-Already an assist trophy
-Very high chance of not making it into Wii/3DS
Cons
-Very divisive character
-Does not have any major role in the Mario games to earn him a spot
-Assist trophy
-Will almost certainly not be in Wii/3DS
Andy (Advance Wars)
"Advance Wars character" was mentioned, but it can't be anyone other than Andy.
Value - A - Most recurrent protagonist of an unrepresented major series
Effort - B - If implemented as a Snake clone, the main work would be his model.
Background - Advance Wars is probably the biggest franchise without representation in Smash Bros. And Andy is the only main character to appear more than once (sorry Jake and Will). The idea has been brought up that he can use Snake's moveset. I'd imagine him being much weaker but faster, so he could be a clone, but quite different. Of course, i'd like him to be able to use his wrench too!
Pros
-Would represent the largest franchise that isn't represented in Smash Bros
-Can be a Snake clone
Cons
-Would need a lot of model work
-Would need custom sound effects
Ridley (Metroid)
But he's too big!
Value - A - Fits the villain role for the Metroid series, which isn't oversaturated either.
Effort - A/B - Has a model in game... but he's gonna be a lot smaller. There's quite a bit of custom PSA work which can be used as a base, at least.
Background - First of all, the size argument is pretty BS. Captain Olimar and Bowser already show that. Ridley has been shown to be only slightly larger than Samus at times, so shrinking him is fine. Anyways, I mentioned polished PSAs for Waluigi above, but Ridley would be the other big one. That can help a lot when it comes to work needed to implement him.
Pros
-Incredibly strong fit, already in Brawl
-Extremely popular, not as controversial as Waluigi
-Extensive PSA work done already
Cons
-Some people still think he's too big.
-If PSA's won't be used for any kind of help, then this would be quite a big project.
Dark Samus (Metroid)
The other big Metroid villain
Value - A - Probably most significant character in the franchise after Samus and Ridley, being the main antagonist of the
Metroid Prime series.
Effort - A - Very clone-like. Many animations can be reused. Also some PSA work done that can be used as an example.
Background - If Ridley doesn't get in, then Dark Samus is an excellent alternative for franchise villain. While she isn't in most of the games like Ridley, she was at least the main protagonist for the largely successful Metroid Prime series (and unlike many other characters that have been suggested, she lasts through multiple games). She can share many animations with Samus, but also has her own unique moves. I imagine she'd be a very fast character (in contrast to Samus' slower playstyle), considering how she zips everywhere when you fight against her. Some animation changes can include making her move like Mewtwo (floating), as well as rolling like Mewtwo (disappearing and reappearing). Likewise, her projectiles would probably be weak scattershot Phazon attacks, in contrast to Samus' heavy-hitting ones.
Pros
-Super cloneable. Very easy to make a faster version of Samus
-Strong presence in the franchise
-Battles from her game can provide inspiration her a few unique moves and animations
-Probably would not have issues with sound clips either
-Popular choice
Cons
-Inferior choice to Ridley (but much more doable)
Isaac (Golden Sun)
"..."
Value - A - Original protagonist of a popular Nintendo RPG and another fairly big franchise that is unrepresented.
Effort - C - Assist trophy model already exists at least
Background - The main character of Golden Sun. Movesets with him can be pretty creative and based on his Psynergy abilities. Many people have said "Felix, because I like him more," but forget it. Felix was the second main character. There is absolutely no reason for him to be put in before Isaac -- unless the PMBR decide to put BOTH of them in (Felix as a clone). Isaac has seniority.
Pros
-Very strong fit.
-Represents a major unrepresented franchise
-Assist trophy
Cons
-Uses swords, but his moveset can be mixed up with Psynergy.
-Decent chance of being in Wii/3DS
Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong)
The only other Kong to have her own game
Value - A - Multiple appearances, had her own game. DK series has a small roster.
Effort - A - Can be clone-ified off Diddy with a few changes to incorporate her ponytail.
Background - Not much to say other than what I said above. The only other DK character that has a legitimate spot for contention is King K. Rool. The big problem with him is that he's not really cloneable and should require his own moveset. I would rather err on the side of less work.
Pros
-Major DK character
-Cloneable
-Lots of support from fans
-Appears in Brawl (I forget in what form)
Cons
-Decent chance of making it into Wii/3DS (per SunJester)
Krystal (Star Fox)
Because we need more Star Fox characters
Value - C - First appeared in a not-very popular Star Fox game during the series' slide
Effort - C - Would require her own moveset... unless you want ANOTHER clone.
Background - Krystal is frequently brought up as a character that deserves a slot. Maybe it's because she's female, but I don't understand where this comes from. She's a supporting character in a game that wasn't even meant to be a Star Fox game originally, and later joins as a teammate in later games. The series already has one teammate and one rival though.
Pros
-Uses different weapons
-Female diversity?
-Appeared as a trophy in Brawl
-Very small chance of making it into Wii/3DS
Cons
-Supporting character of a 1) saturated franchise and 2) games of said franchise past its glory days (Star Fox 64)
-Would need a lot of work from models and animations to moveset to sounds
Tails (Sonic the Hedgehog)
Sonic's Luigi
Value - B - Super iconic Sonic character. If anyone from Sonic should make it in, it's him. But do we need a second character from a non-Nintendo (guest) franchise?
Effort - A - Pseudoclone, Luigi style. He can borrow many moves from Sonic, but also diverge in several, making him more Luigi-like than an actual clone. Still, much less work needed.
Background - Everyone knows who Tails is, so I shouldn't need to say much. If a Sonic character is to be considered, then it must go to Tails. However, the big question should be should another Sonic character even be considered in the first place? Remember this is a Nintendo game. Sonic and Snake are pretty much guests, and adding additional characters from their games is a little overkill. That being said, this is a mod, and the makers are free to do what they want. My personally feeling is that if another third party character were to be added, then it should be Tails, and stop there. I won't even bother with a Knuckles entry for this reason (you'd already know what I say. He's also Luigifiable, but Tails has priority).
Pros
-Second most iconic Sonic character
-Luigifiable
-So many Sonic fans. Feed their voracious hunger.
-Did appear in Brawl
-Very high chance of not making it into Wii/3DS
Cons
-Yet another 3rd party character
Shadow (Sonic the Hedgehog)
Because people keep bringing him up
Value - C - Why Shadow over Tails?
Effort - A - Cloneable, a lot of PSA work done
Background - Read above for Tails on why Shadow shouldn't belong. But he does have two things going -- some die-hard supporters and a much easier job than Tails because of previous PSA work and his closer similarities to Sonic.
Pros
-Cloneable
-Lots of PSA work done.
-So many Shadow fans. Feed their voracious hunger.
-Almost guaranteed of not making it into Wii/3DS
-Assist trophy (thanks, Rikana)
Cons
-Yet another 3rd party character
-Does not even deserve the second slot within his own franchise
His biggest problem is that not many people know of him.
