I have two local Pac-Mans in my area, Brail and Shaka (but I don't think either are active on Smashboards). I've played this MU enough to have a pretty firm grasp on it.
Are there any videos of these two out there?
It's true that it's not simply "lol Grav Pull", but at the same time, Grav Pull is pretty bad for Pac. Frankly if I use it in a reasonable way I can wait out your entire projectile game easily.
I agree that Pac-Man can't throw Fruit as liberally as he wants, but that's about it. He can't throw Fruit like an idiot. Hydrants are fair game if you insist on sitting back, and Pac-Man benefits if you keep GP'ing them.
Pac-Man really can't approach Rosalina if she is smart with her defense either; if you jump at me, everything you have is super easy to usmash, and on the ground, you just have no way past Luma.
He doesn't have to approach in neutral. Even when he's down on %, Pac-Man has no reason to rush his approach if you're not choosing to come to him. If you're choosing not to come to him, he's got setups that he can do that aren't in your favor.
If I stand really far away you can set stuff up, but I'm going to just stand in mid-range and wait to see what you do. Most of Pac-Man's moveset is unsafe on block so if he ever loosens up and just starts swinging he's very easy to just block and punish for Rosa.
First, Pac-Man should have a trampoline between the both of you, narrowing what you choose to do if you decide to do something about him setting up. Your wording implies that you're comfortable with waiting his setups out, so here's what I would do if you're insisting on waiting.
1) I'm going to continuously Fair launch hydrants at you and see what you do. Every response you have except jumping very high over them is in my favor through either Luma taking damage / dying, you giving me lag to punish, me healing (which isn't slow at all, where are you getting that from?), or you jumping high into the air leaving yourself at a positional disadvantage.
2) I'm going to get a Key in my hand, instant launch a hydrant at you and follow behind it. Like #1, every response you have is in my favor, except this time I'm going to remain close enough to you to punish GP by running up and using trampoline. Now you're playing neutral with a Key that you can't regrab and me close enough to punish GP if you use it.
None of Pac-Man's moves are really good Luma killers either other than the key, but I can grav pull that if I see it coming which gives it to me to use. If Luma is dead, my offensive presence is pretty bad but Pac-Man has no real way to pressure Rosa in this situation other than charging up fruit and setting stuff up with it. If I just hang back and wait, I can get Luma back easy every time.
Dair puts Luma into tumble at any % and depending on where Pac-Man hits Luma the first time, it takes 1-2 Dairs to KO it. If Rosalina grabs the ledge and Pac-Man has hydrant available, it will instant KO Luma.
If you're sitting back this entire time, I've said that Pac-Man will get Keys in his hand. You can GP them, but you can't pick them up + Pac-Man will be close enough to punish your GP.
If Luma is dead, Pac-Man can do the same thing he should doing normally in neutral, and the same stuff still applies except for Luma dying. Assuming you're still sitting back, you're giving him free Keys in hand at his leisure. If Pac-Man bans SV, this is a bad idea for Rosalina.
The trampoline is really not going to stop me from doing this; it only hits close to Pac and ties up his movement to throw out. I'm running away while I wait for Luma, not just standing there. Run up grab is what most characters do to deal with this, but Pac-Man's mobility isn't especially high and even if it were he has a pretty awful grab that doesn't even lead to high damage if he does land it. I feel like going for trampoline to try to break my defenses in general isn't a bad idea, but Pac-Man eats a heavy punish if he's ever wrong when he hits trampoline so it's a very "sometimes" option that I don't think is something you rely on as a core repeatable tactic.
Assuming SV is banned, giving me free Keys in hand to chase you down with is a prospect I will take any day. If you're full focused on running away without Luma, there is no way you're punishing a whiffed trampoline, unless Pac-Man retreats to the same side you're on for some reason. If you do decide to go at him for whiffing a trampoline, you've got to deal with Key OoS since you're letting him get it for free.
If I catch a fruit and have Luma, I'm going to go into super turtle mode of running away, spacing cleverly, and shooting star bits at you. As far as I can tell, Pac-Man has no way in on this situation that doesn't just accept that I'm going to hit him with whatever fruit I caught and then get an immediate good chase situation. A smart Pac won't let me just do that a lot since he'll be following behind his fruit to protect it and get pressure, but if you aren't smart or careful with when you throw the fruit, I'm going to make your life hell especially if I catch something like the weight or the key that you really don't want to get hit with.
If you're playing defense as hard as you're implying, this situation will never happen because Pac-Man will always have fruits in his hand that can't be picked up once thrown.
If by some chance it does happen, you can't full screen star bit camp Pac-Man because he will pellet shield them and keep doing that for as long as you keep shooting. Otherwise, if this happened to me, I will keep launching hydrants at you and continue the same game. What I've said about neutral still applies even if Rosalina has the Fruit, and it's still in Pac-Man's favor assuming not SV.
Don't get me wrong, I will agree with you that Rosalina catching to fruit is a very bad situation for Pac-Man. However, it's not going to happen with the play you're describing.
In general this also adds a huge layer of risk to your end; in most MUs I can't do anything to my opponent as temporarily debilitating as they can to me by killing Luma, but I feel like catching the fruit cripples Pac-Man in the same way. If I have a large lead with your fruit in hand (like a full stock lead), you just lose as I'm going to time you out, but if it's close, you can at least force me to hit you with it (and hence give it up).
Covered right above this and it'll never happen if you're playing full defense.
I really just don't see how the healing gimmick could possibly work out for Pac-Man. The locals here don't try it, and from what I've toyed with, it seems hopelessly non-viable in every MU. It's just so slow and committed for so little healing; if you get dash attacked even half of the time you go for it, you come out way behind.
That's why this full defense strategy is working for you. Pellet healing off of GP is not slow at all and is crucial to making the 100% defense Rosalina strategy fall. Outside of Dabuz, who I couldn't perform my optimal counter play against due to wifi (johns lol) and running back to Smashville, Rosalina players have all eventually started chasing me down because they realized they can't win the waiting game.
Let me explain this in full. If Pac-Man is baiting the GP by fair launching hydrants at you, you're in a bad spot:
If you GP the hydrant and Pac-Man doesn't have a Key in his hand, he heals himself on reaction and the situation resets. The risk is minimal, if any. Unless you have a stock lead, you're going to lose the lead if you keep doing this.
If you GP the hydrant and Pac-Man does have a key in his hand, he can keep walking to you and wait just outside of your range with the Key. If you GP now because of Key, Pac-Man can punish you. If you shield, Pac-Man can play the waiting game or chuck the Key and damage / KO Luma and reset because you aren't mounting an offense.
If you attack the hydrant to cancel it, you're giving lag for Pac-Man to punish.
If you roll, side step, airdodge, or shield the hydrant, Luma will end up dying.
If you jump over it, you're high in the air. You don't take any immediate damage, but you have to come down eventually. Assuming SV is struck and banned, this is not going to be easy, especially if Pac-Man has a Key in hand.
If you are using GP, you can't dash attack me for pellet healing. In general, I'm not sure why you think the tech is so slow. I can pull it off against Mario players approaching me with Fireballs and still have time to have an answer for when he's in my face.
The hydrant really does nothing for Pac-Man as a grounded spatial control tool in this MU, but it sure does help him get out of juggles. If I don't have Luma, I can't easily send the hydrant flying so that's something to keep in mind as well (but with Luma it's really easy);
Yes it does. As you said, Rosalina alone is unable to instantly launch the hydrant without charging a smash attack, and if you're launching it with a smash and Pac-Man is near you're getting punished. With Luma, you're right, easy launch. Trampoline is the better spatial control tool though, because it forces you in the air should you attempt to approch Pac-Man.
without Luma I'll mostly be grav pulling it.
Which is a free heal for Pac-Man every time. If your local Pac-Man players aren't healing off of this, it's no wonder you think defense works so well.
The local Pacs only use default Pac for some reason, but I suspect that On-Fire Hydrant would actually be kinda helpful since being pushed with water means nothing to me (remember, I'm making you come to me unless you do something committed that I can punish; that water is zoning you out more than anything) while the flames could disrupt Luma.
On Fire Hydrant is a significant problem for Luma. The flames will shred it and destroy Rosalina's grounded game for the most part unless you prioritize launching it or GP'ing it away, both of which Pac-Man has answers for.
I disagree on Pac-Man having to approach because of the giant wall of text I'm writing.
Neither character really kills the other quickly. Pac-Man's kill moves are underwhelming in the first place, and Pac-Man is getting camped in this MU so his opportunities are sparse anyway. Rosalina is camping so she's not getting as many set-ups as she does otherwise, and even when she has chases, Pac-Man has good escapes. If Rosa makes a sloppy mistake with flying hydrants or keys, she can die early, but a good Rosa shouldn't really let that happen. Pac will only really die early if Rosa makes a really solid read or catches him off-stage, but Pac should be expected to play well enough to make this a rare occurrence. Rosa will be doing damage at a higher rate since her defensive game is superior, but regardless, this MU will be pushing the timer basically every time it happens.
Your opinion of the MU is based on Pac-Man having no answer to GP and always coming to Rosalina. That's not the case.
If Pac-Man takes the first stock, things flip around a bit and he starts the camp game himself. Rosa can approach him realistically (lots of walk up jab/tilt that Pac has poor punishes for),
This right here makes me wary of how your Pac-Man players are playing the MU. With the defensive play you're describing, they should always have time to set up trampoline. Trampoline forces Rosalina to come from the air, where Pac-Man's moves are much better for contesting hers. Walk up anything shouldn't be an option.
but I feel when she "has to" approach it's actually to his favor since he has lots of garbage to put in the way and slow her down. Just sitting right behind the hydrant when you have a stock lead makes Rosa's life hard, but it's not really an effective tactic at any time you don't have the stock lead.
It is in his favor when she has to approach, which will happen more often than you're thinking. It's because of the trampoline though, not the hydrant, although hydrant does help a good bit.
I only play with customs so here's about what Rosa's mean here. SSB isn't quite as good as it seems at first; I do outcamp Pac regardless, but if I SSB him across the stage, he holds the fruit up, gets hit so it will drop to his feet, and picks it up which actually helps him out a fair bit.
These are free heals for him. He can get fruit in his hand without getting hit.
As per stages, I strongly feel that Lylat Cruise is really good for Pac-Man here. His gameplan seems completely unimpeded by slopes while Rosa is a bit awkward on them, and this often creates situations where he can slip past Luma far easier than he "deserves" to (he also gets some really interesting set-ups with the variable apple bounce timing here if he's prepared to use it correctly). If the Rosa bans Lylat, Pac-Man mostly just wants to avoid platforms; Rosa uses these to enhance her defensive game while he gets little from them. Stages like FD and Duck Hunt are good picks for the Pac in this MU while you definitely want to avoid BF or DL64.
Overall I feel this is something like 7-3 Rosa if not even better. Pac-Man loses the slow game and has poor approach options against Rosalina's top tier defenses. He has a few good things he can go for, but the basic fundamental stuff all just goes Rosa's way pretty hard.
We disagree on the MU at a fundamental level, so I'm not going to get into this. I think Pac-Man needs to ban SV for sure and then whatever else will aid Rosalina's running away. The stage list is very much in her favor though, and whoever wins game 1 will be at a huge advantage in terms of CPs.
