TWEWY Mafia | scumbags victorious

[vanderzant]

THE WORLD ENDS WITH YOU MAFIA

RULES
​

[Collapse=Fundamentals]
1. Failure to comply with any of the following rules can result in a modkill. Additionally, as the Game Moderator, I reserve the right to change any of the following rules as I see fit.
2. Please follow all instructions in your role pm.
3. Dead men tell no tales. Once you have died you may no longer post in the thread. You are allowed one "Bah, go Town/Scum" post.
4. No outside communication unless told otherwise by your Role PM.
5. Do not edit your posts. All edits will be reversed.
6. Personal attacks will not be tolerated. Calling someone dumb or scum is not a personal attack.
7. Quoting any Mod PMs (including your role pm) in this thread will result in a mod kill.
8. No posting in code/hidden text/foreign language/etc. This does not include bread crumbing, which is fine.
9. You may not post any metadata about mod PMs (i.e. images, message ID, etc.). This includes screenshots. Basically, anything against the spirit of the game.
10. Feel free to PM if you have any concerns about the rules, or just want to chat. The mod will definitely find any thoughts on the game you have interesting
11. Flavour is NOT the focus of the game, and reliance on it is inherently ANTI TOWN and will get you burned.[/Collapse]

[Collapse=Voting and Lynching]
1. Each Day, you may vote for a player to be lynched using a bold vote command. For example, Vote: vanderzant.
2. To unvote, use the command unvote. For example, Unvote Vote: vanderzant. You must unvote each time before voting another individual, or your vote will not be counted.
3. No lynch is a viable lynch choice and a majority will end the Day without a lynch. For example, Vote: No Lynch.
4. The Day will end when a majority lynch is decided or a pre-set deadline has been reached. If deadline is reached without a majority lynch decided, there will be no lynch.
5. Twilight phase will be after the lynch or deadline is reached, but before the Game Moderator starts the night phase.
6. The thread will be locked and there is to be NO posts during Night.[/Collapse]

[collapse=Activity and Deadline]
1. You are required to post at least once every 24 hours. If you fail to do so, you will be prodded. An accumulation of too many prods (however much I think that is) will result in your replacement or a modkill depending on the circumstances.
2. If you are going to be V/LA, please notify both myself in private, and other players in the thread (or use the V/LA thread).
3. Remember that everyone else wants to play a good game of mafia, so if you don't think you will be able to commit to the game, either request replacement early or don't sign up!
4. No one will be modkilled in an objectively identifiable LYLO/MYLO situation.[/collapse]

PLAYER LIST

​

ALIVE
1. Swiss
6. -Joey- replaces BSL
8. Afro Horse (Nabe/Dark Horse hydra)


DEAD
0. BJ, NPC, Town Vanilla (Died Pregame)
4. Ryker Sho-Minamimoto (J/Sephiroth's Masamune Hydra), Shiki Misaki, Mafia Goon (Lynched Day 1)
5. Cello_Marl, Joshua, Town FBI Agent (Killed Night 1)
3. X1-12, Yodai Higashizawa, Town Vanilla (Lynched Day 2)
2. Swordancer replaces I am Zim! (Zen/Omni Hydra), Tenho, Town Vanilla (Killed Night 2)
7. Delvro, Sho Miniamoto, Independant Serial Killer (Lynched Day 3)


REPLACEMENTS
1. Please PM me if interested!


IMPORTANT POSTS
Day 1 Ends #574
Day 2 Begins #576
Day 2 Ends #684
Day 3 Begins #685
Day 3 Ends #744
​

 

[vanderzant]

Set Up

This is a semi-open game. The Flavour is based on the DS game The World Ends With You. The following wiki page has all the info you could ever hope to have, though I'd like to stress that knowledge of flavour is NOT necessary to play at all.

http://twewy.wikia.com/wiki/The_World_Ends_With_You

All roles will be distributed randomly using random.org.

1 x Serial Killer (has a night kill, wins in a 1 v 1 over mafia)
2 x Mafia Goons (no night kill)
1 x FBI Agent (Gets "serial killer" or "not serial killer" result)
4 x Vanilla Townies

Mafia wins if they obtain a majority of living players (e.g. 2 Mafia, 1 SK, 1 Town) unless it is 1 Mafia 1 SK alive, where the SK wins.

 

[vanderzant]

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEE WOOOOOOOOOOO WEEEEEEEEEEEEE WOOOOOOOOOO WEEEEEEEE WOOOOOOOOO

"ATTENTION ALL YOCTOGRAMS! ERASURE IS IMMINENT! I, Miniamoto WILL SIEZE SHIBUYA AND ALL HECTOPASCALS WILL BE FACTORISED WAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!"

Sirens blared across the streets of Shibuya. Night had fallen, but the city was wide awake with action. An abundance of Noise raced around without masters to control them. Fear was at every corner. You feel quite intimidated by the sheer chaos of the scene. It was only - after all - your second day as a Reaper. While the black wings protruding from your spine felt unnatural on your back, the supernatural powers within them could not be denied.

Observing your surrounding, you see a pair of fresh faced support reapers like yourself, back-to-back and noticeably fearful. Their cries are barely audible over the blaring sirens.

"Th-that's the Emergency Call isn't it!" stuttered the closest reaper.
"Uh… Y-yeah, it means some Players are running ar-

WHACK!

The second reaper dropped cold onto the floor. He'd been hit with what looked like a magnum pin. That meant only one thing.

A fight was about to break out.

"****"

Trying to control your new found fear, you take in a deep breath. Mustering all your strength, you gather the dark energy inside your wings and summon the most powerful noise you can create…

A dixie frog:

>.>

Was that it? How are you supposed to defend yourself with a freaking FROG. No time to ponder though, it would have to do.

Suddenly the two players lunge at you. His speed his incredible, and she swats away your helpless dixie frog like it is made of air. Through the fragmented digital pieces of soul that was your frog, you see a yellow flash pierce through the air.

It strikes you right in the chest.

...So this is what erasure is like.

The end is quick. The last things you remember are his orange spikes, and her long pink hair…

Dear XXX, Welcome to The World Ends With You Mafia!

You are BJ, Town Vanilla.

Special Ability: None

Win Condition: You win once all threats to the town have been eliminated.

Mod Note: Please be aware that the flavour does NOT refer to any player names. It refers to factions, and in case it isn't obvious enough:

Reapers = Town
Players = Mafia
Miniamoto = Serial Killer

---

Day 1 Begins!

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch!

1. Swiss:
2. I am Zim!:
3. X1-12:
4. Sho-Minamimoto:
5. Cello_Marl:
6. BSL:
7. Delvro:
8. Afro Horse:

Not voting: Everyone

A deadline has been set for Midnight on the 12th Feb EST (10am AEST). That's 9 Days!

 

[Sho-Minamimoto]

Prepare to be iterated!

 

[Cello_Marl]

So, MVR is the Reaper who erases the greatest number of Players in 3 Days?

@Sho-Minamimoto: Why shouldn't we believe you aren't Sho-Minamimoto?

@Everyone else: Should we believe Sho-Minamimoto isn't Sho-Minamimoto because he's Sho-Minamimoto? (Or isn't, depending on how you look at it)

 

[Cello_Marl]

Also, that's the most severe activity requirement I've seen since Down n' Dirty.

Don't be Tom, people.

 

[Cello_Marl]

On the other hand, feel free to be Omni.

 

[Delvro]

Prepare to be iterated!

I just met you. I don't like you. And I don't give a rat's *** if you think I'm rude!

Did you know that 5929871300652 mod 9 = 4?

0.6 in base 3 = 0.12101210...



That was a nice distraction!

 

[Cello_Marl]

Vote: No Lynch

 

[BSL]

So, MVR is the Reaper who erases the greatest number of Players in 3 Days?

@Sho-Minamimoto: Why shouldn't we believe you aren't Sho-Minamimoto?

@Everyone else: Should we believe Sho-Minamimoto isn't Sho-Minamimoto because he's Sho-Minamimoto? (Or isn't, depending on how you look at it)

Why would anyone believe that someone isn't someone because they ARE someone?

 

[Delvro]

Why would anyone believe that someone isn't someone because they ARE someone?

Yo dawg I heard you like something so I put someone in your something so you can do something while anyone with something can do something to anyone.

I think Sho is Joshua because that would be an ironic twist of fate.

 

[Sho-Minamimoto]

Also, that's the most severe activity requirement I've seen since Down n' Dirty.

Don't be Tom, people.

Agreed. So zetta slow!

@Sho-Minamimoto: Why shouldn't we believe you aren't Sho-Minamimoto?

Leave it to Cello to start us off with out daily dose of wine. I have just as much chance of being Sho as you do.

I just met you. I don't like you. And I don't give a rat's *** if you think I'm rude!

Did you know that 5929871300652 mod 9 = 4?

0.6 in base 3 = 0.12101210...



That was a nice distraction!

Spoiler

I love TWEWY references!

You zetta sons of digits, your out of your vector!

 

[Cello_Marl]

I think Sho is Joshua because that would be an ironic twist of fate.

You don't think Sho being Sho would be more ironic? From the players'reapers' perspective.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Delvro, argue the merits of lynch verus no lynch with someone of your choosing. Good night.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Leave it to Cello to start us off with out daily dose of wine. I have just as much chance of being Sho as you do.

From your perspective, wouldn't you have NO chance, not just as much? How could you have an equal chance as myself? This must be SephMasa speaking. At any rate, how is what I said, which was, "Why shouldn't we believe you aren't Sho-Minamimoto?", WIFOM? Useless, unanswerable, maybe. But I used no circular reasoning, although if I did, then I'd love to hear where.

I'm not counting the rest of what I said since you didn't quote it.

 

[Delvro]

I don't see the point of a No Lynch.

This game has a high scum ratio as it is. A d1 scum lynch seems reasonable, given that with two scum factions, even scum will be scumhunting to some degree. However, even a single mislynch is a potential, if not guaranteed, loss for town.

In addition, the SK likely won't want to aim for mafia NKs until it becomes dangerously close to endgame and two mafia still remain (N2 and beyond).

In fact, after thinking about it, a d1 mislynch is really horrible. With a townie mislynch, a townie nightkill would follow (at least with high probability), EITHER of which could be the FBI agent.

So not only does a mislynch make it possible for town to lose right off the bat, it doubles the chance of losing the FBI agent.

No lynch is definitely the best solution. It offers the best chance of finding a guilty on the SK, town STILL can't lose until they make at least one mislynch, and, if we No Lynch quickly, the SK won't be able to make a lot of good reads, increasing the chance that he will hit Mafia.

No Lynch

From this point on, nobody say anything except a vote for no lynch. Don't give the SK any information.

Alternatively, you can say "I don't want a no lynch", thus signalling to everyone that you a) don't understand logic, or b) are anti-town. Or I made a mistake in my logic, but as everyone already knows, that's impossible.

Good night.

 

[Delvro]

Please ignore the first two paragraphs of above post. That was me not quite yet understanding the optimal strategy for this game.

 

[Delvro]

Vote: No Lynch

 

[vanderzant]

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch!

No Lynch: Cello_Marl, Delvro

Not voting: Swiss, I am Zim!, X1-12, Sho-Minamimoto, BSL, Afro Horse

A deadline has been set for Midnight on the 12th Feb EST (10am AEST). That's 9 Days!

Mod note: X1-12 is V/LA until Sunday the 6th of Feb.

 

[Swiss]

SK vs FBI.

But obv SK has to shoot a mafiat as soon as possible too.

Vote No Lynch

This is deffo the best way to go about it.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Unvote

@Delvro: I did find it amusing that you chose to argue with yourself. Your analysis isn't quite right, since the Cop could still claim to prevent being the lynch, but that still doesn't really help us much since he'd be the NK. But you are not quite right about losing off the bat.

It is interesting that both you and Swiss are only looking at it from the perspective of finding the SK, as compared to long term.

1/8 = SK = 5v2 = 5/7 * 4/7 * 3/7 = 60/343. Compare 4v2 from NL. 12/49, or 3 and a half times more likely to lose. When you consider that an alive FBI agent means a 100% townie, we've got Newbie 3 from the other side.
2/8 = Mafia = 5v1v1. Forces mafia to hunt for SK.
1/8 = FBI = try again due to claim
4/8 = Vanilla = Town loss if both factions agree to make Town Kingmaker. But, neither side would initiate such a measure. If SK came forward, mafia can simply lynch him with town for a 60% chance of victory instead of 50% for Kingmake. Mafia coming forward can simply be lynched by SK with town for 2v1v1 or 3v1, giving SK another shot at the FBI and the same 50/50 shot he'd have anyway (assuming 1 living investigation and FBI is still alive, 75% chance otherwise due to equal numbers with mafia).

It's Prisoner's Dilemma. We should act to take advantage of the fact that they individually want to win more than they want town to lose.

Vote Swiss

 

[Swiss]

Why did I know you would do this?

 

[Cello_Marl]

I'm fine going Delvro too.

But if you really think No Lynch is better, defend that position.

 

[Swiss]

I didn't even run the maths. I'll assume yours is right.

I was and still am more engrossed in co-ordinating attacks on enemy tribes (facebook - backyard monsters, help me and I'll help you).

Though considering myself and Delvro are 'above average' (lets just talk about me) when it comes to persuasive power, if my goal were survival (mafia/indy/FBI - snuck in a town WIFOM) would I not be better off NOT leaving the game to pure chance? Indy Swiss wouldn't want this, 'nor would scum Swiss unless I'm getting lazy in my old age. Skill > Chance. So I pretty much just confirmed myself as town, right?

Cello, with no doc or tracker in this game - the only way I'm living past N2 is if I'm the SK. Same applies to you.

Don't point out any glaring holes in the larger paragraph. Gloss over them.

 

[Swiss]

You're making me pay attention now, your maths makes no sense.

3/8 hit anti town.

4/8 hit VT

1/8 hit FBI

Worst case:

D2 start; VT dead & FBI dead.

1/6 vs 2/6 vs 3/6

---------------

It's in the SK's best interest to NK a likely scum N2, assuming no scum dead up to that point.



NL'ing takes the game down to chance, decreases scum win % increases town and SK win % by equal amounts. We don't need to worry about CC'ing as it is never in a faction's favour unless LyLo.

I don't particularly care what we do.

 

[Delvro]

No. A no lynch, with absolutely no reads raises the likelihood that town will win, at the expense of both mafia and SK.

No lynch immediately (no reads) -- Random player out of 7 dies. This is the ONLY case where I will assume that the SK CANNOT reliably kill a townie N1.
Day 2 possibilities:
with p(5/7) = 4v2v1
and p(2/7) = 5v1v1 (guaranteed not lylo)

No lynch after arguing (with reads) -- SK can reliably pick at least one Not Mafia.
Day 2 possibilities:
P(~1) = 4v2v1
So arguing about a no lynch, then deciding to no lynch, helps both the Mafia and the SK at the expense of town.

Now, what if we decide to lynch d1? For simplicity, let's say a random player dies. Then:
P(5/8) = Town lynch, town NK -- 3v2v1 (it's possible for town to lose even if we lynch scum every night after this!)
P(2/8) = Mafia lynch, town NK -- 4v1v1 (mylo)
P(1/8) = SK lynch, no NK -- 5v2 (2 mislynches or more)

With no lynch, we avoid a possible d1 mislynch loss (If town lynches Town d1, Mafia d2, Mafia d3, Town loses), as well as having AT MOST one townie die before d2, thus maximizing the likelihood that the FBI agent survives to d2.

In addition, with 2/7 probability, all 5 townies survive, with anly one mafia and one SK, one of them cleared as not-sk (or confirmed sk by FBI agent)

No matter how you slice it, No Lynch is the one and only best option for town. Cello, your probabilities make no sense. I don't think you're using probabilities correctly (I think you're assuming random night kill which I believe is ONLY appropriate if we no lynch RIGHT NOW).

 

[Swiss]

If we start lynching and 'playing properly' D2 then we will effectively BE in D1 just with one less players who will probably be town. 2/7 SK kills scum, 1/7 FBI and 4/7 VT. Assuming FBI doesn't magically get it right.

We are not No Lynching. Statistically all that will happen is that we'll go into D2 with one less townie and one townie known by one player to not be SK.

If we somehow strike lucky on the FBI investigation then whoop dee doo, but other than that it is BAD. We cannot play the numbers with no reads.


There. That's my actual, reasoned stance. Sure that's right.

I'd vote Delv but Cello would call me inde for it.

 

[I am Zim!]

1. Swiss: sup
2. I am Zim!: sup
3. X1-12: sup
4. Sho-Minamimoto: sup
5. Cello_Marl: sup
6. BSL: who are you? how many games have you played? what people here are you most familiar with?
7. Delvro: who are you? how many games have you played? what people here are you most familiar with?
8. Afro Horse: who are you? how many games have you played? what people here are you most familiar with?

let me know when you guys are done arguing mechanics. attempting to derive scummy intentions from bad math won't work. chill, Cello.

believe it or not, Delvro, this little tit-for-tat going back and forth here is information enough to make the nightkill not be so random. think about it. thought about it? tell me what you think.

i say we play toDay normal for information and vote no lynch at the end of the day. we're going to need information for paper trails when trying to connect mafia.

as an SK i'd definitely have enough information toDay to make a non-random kill choice toNight.

 

[Swiss]

who are you? how many games have you played? what people here are you most familiar with?

 

[Swiss]

Zen/Omni.

Pro skimming.

 

[I am Zim!]

also i saw you viewing this thread a few minutes ago, BSL. igmeoy coastermccoastymcwaitingforscumpartnertocomeonlinetodiscusswhatwe'regoingtosaymccoasty

 

[I am Zim!]

Zen/Omni.

Pro skimming.

no, i've read everything on the past two pages twice

 

[Swiss]

who are you? how many games have you played? what people here are you most familiar with?

Zen/Omni.

Pro skimming.

Try understanding too.

 

[I am Zim!]

if it wasn't clear the first question is phrased that way so that hydras understand that both users should be answering the questions. not just a single answer representing the entire hydra.

i'm going to pretend that you're not wasting our time, Swiss.

 

[Swiss]

....

I didn't know who YOU were, so I asked and re-iterated questions, then I checked and saw you were an Omni/Zen hydra.

Hence "pro skimming" by me.

Defensive much?

 

[I am Zim!]

very defensive.

i interpreted it as you calling one of us a pro-skimmer for not looking at the OP since i didn't think you'd be silly enough to post that without actually looking at the OP yourself.

dumb stuff aside, what is your opinion on my thought process about approaching D1, Swiss

 

[Delvro]

If we start lynching and 'playing properly' D2 then we will effectively BE in D1 just with one less players who will probably be town. 2/7 SK kills scum, 1/7 FBI and 4/7 VT. Assuming FBI doesn't magically get it right.

Wrong. Did you read any of my post? This Day, right now, as we speak, we are in a possible Mylo situation.

There are many reasons why a no lynch is preferred, but here's a summary:

--It offers the highest chance that the FBI agent will survive to D2 and beyond, while the FBI agent is alive, the chance of the SK surviving is greatly reduced.

--It offers the highest chance that ALL 5 townies survive to day 2. Seriously. It does.

--The chance of a Mafia dying is roughly equal with an immediate no lynch as it is with a random d1 lynch. After a time, this will cease to be the case.

-- The chance of d2 not being a Lylo is roughly the same in both cases. However, with no lynch, we don't have to worry about Mylo either.

believe it or not, Delvro, this little tit-for-tat going back and forth here is information enough to make the nightkill not be so random. think about it. thought about it? tell me what you think.

You're right. However, I still feel confident that the SK could hit one of the Mafias tonight at this point in time.

 

[Swiss]

I think playing and getting reads is good, clearly.

I still fail to see how NL'ing is beneficial, unless we're going to be certain that we lynch anti-town D2 (in which case we'd have them pinned D1 anyway, almost no night actions to go off).

In a game with almost no night actions, not day playing is ********.

I'll be pushing for a lynch if I have a scum read, and anyone who doesn't is a playing dumb.

 

[Swiss]

How are we 'possibly' in MyLo now?

Seriously I have a degree in Economics and cannot fathom how your maths makes sense.

 

[Delvro]

Mislynch townie d1, town nk1

3v2v1

Mafia lynch d2, town nk2

2v1v1

Mafia lynch d3, town nk3

1v1v1

Town lost.

This was in my earlier post in less detail.