Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Garteam]

As someone who used to be a true believer in more Ultimate content, Sakurai reiterated that the Sora Amiibo update was the final update for Ultimate and that was recent enough to conclude Sakurai hasn't changed his mind.

Alternatively, Sakurai could have been lying, but that's not really in his character. He's usually pretty transparent as far as game devs go.

 

[Noipoi]

After doing a bit of thinking, while a BOTW port does still seem odd to me, I guess it wouldn’t be too crazy.

As others have stated other consoles like PlayStation have done similar things, releasing enhanced versions of games you could still play with backwards compatibility. Maybe the next console’s graphics are just that much of an upgrade that it would be a different experience, at least somewhat. And we’re probably still a ways away from the next Zelda, I guess this would be their way of getting the series on the new system in the meantime.

So still kinda kooky, but not that kooky I suppose.

To bring it around to Smash…Ultimate Deluxe is still the product of premium, 100% organic, pure Colombian copium

 

[Guynamednelson]

As someone who used to be a true believer in more Ultimate content, Sakurai reiterated that the Sora Amiibo update was the final update for Ultimate and that was recent enough to conclude Sakurai hasn't changed his mind.

Alternatively, Sakurai could have been lying, but that's not really in his character. He's usually pretty transparent as far as game devs go.

Saying "MY work on Ultimate is complete" and having someone else be in charge of more DLC wouldn't be lying.

Also, hotter-than-the-sun take in regards to Ultimate DX/FP3: Continued support for Ultimate DLC would be more likely to give Ultimate DX supporters what they want than an actual port of SSBU. For one thing, more of the budget could be devoted to making new content, not just relicensing all of the old stuff. It'd be more beneficial for your wallet too, you won't have to pay $300-400 for a new console, $60-70 for an Ultimate port, and then $30 for the newcomers. You just do the latter.

Of course, we are really, really, REALLY running out of time for that. We're finally getting a Direct in June, and FP2's first three fighters were spread throughout June-October-December...so if more Smash DLC is one of their final Switch projects like everything else in the June Direct presumably will be, it's now or never.

 

[SharkLord]

I do think that people underestimate just how negative Byleth's initial reception was.

Yeah, it was immature and Byleth's addition has aged like fine wine. But that backlash was massive. Sakurai anticipated some backlash and the backlash happened in a way that Nintendo does pay attention to. YouTube likes and Twitter.

I think they may learn the wrong lesson and that Byleth was the problem and not the large amount of FE characters. I don't think he's as likely as people think.

I'd also like to add that Byleth isn't necessarily the most popular 3H character, either. Back when the game first dropped a ton of people got into Fire Emblem, and Heroes' CYL poll was filled to the brim with 3H characters. Even so, we ended up with Edelgard, Dmitri, Claude, and Lysithea (Who isn't even a Lord!) as the winners, with no Byleth. Next year, Marianne and the Gatekeeper, no Byleth. It took the third CYL after the release of Three Houses to get a Byleth in there. From what I can gather Heroes is kinda slowing down and we already have our most popular characters in, so it also seems like the CYL votes mean less every year, but even so it's clear that Byleth isn't the single most popular 3H rep. I almost wonder if we might see a different Three Houses character added instead of (Or even alongside) Byleth next game, if they have the time for it.

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

It all makes sense now....

 

[SharkLord]

I said this before on The Social Thread, but i want to recall it. (even if this may count as Spam)

Remember Nintendo's Annual Reports?
Well, they have invested the following companies:
1. Bandai Namco
2. Konami
3. Square Enix
4. Koei Tecmo
5. Kadokawa (They own Dwango, which itself has FromSoftware, Spike Chunsoft and the guys behind RPG Maker)

This means the next things:

• Konami and Square possibly won't be cut, despite weird people trying to fearmonger.
• Namco would still co-develop the next SSB game.
• Tecmo getting major representation (Ryu Hayabusa, Warriors rep.)
• While FromSoft and Spike Chunsoft have some chances, i'm scared of an ugly future where the new Smash Bros. has Gamera and some anime dudes from the light novel line, Dengeki Bunko.

Yeah, this may sound stupid, but these are the things i wanted to say.

Mario watching Gamera play Ridley like a xylophone before performing one of the bloodiest Fatalities imaginable and flying off into the sunset like nothing happened

 

[Louie G.]

I'd also like to add that Byleth isn't necessarily the most popular 3H character, either.

Correct me if I'm wrong - but you could say a lot of the same things about Robin, right?

Personally, I think Edelgard would have been a more valuable addition longterm. Not really blowing any minds here, I've said it before and I'm not the only one who has. Fire Emblem finally gets a villain, we get a more focused axe-wielder moveset, and she's (probably?) the most popular character from the game. But it's not too likely they'd fully walk back on Byleth to add her, or add her as an entirely new unique character alongside them - what's done is done and Byleth was designed to represent all three routes. Hell, Lucina and Chrom only got as lucky as they did because they were easy clone fodder. If you're gonna go all in with a brand new Fire Emblem character who isn't from the most recent title, you're probably better off just adding Lyn finally.

Bottom line though, even if I would rather this did happen, there isn't much reason to walk back on it. If it was Edelgard in Byleth's place, she probably would have got nearly as much scorn from the community at large simply because she was another Fire Emblem character. Sakurai saw it most fitting to represent the game with its central protagonist so I'd wager it's more about representing Three Houses as a whole vs pulling its most beloved characters in this case.

 

[PeridotGX]

It should be noted that Wind Waker HD was released almost 11 years after Wind Waker, and both Twilight Princess HD and Skyward Sword HD were released almost 10 years after their respective games. Assuming the Switch 2 is released next year around March and this BotW port is coming with it, it'll have been 8 years since BotW first came out.

That feeling when 8 years is considered quickly.

Huh. That would be about the same gap between Super Mario 64's original release and the DS remake. Or Pokemon Red/Green and Fire Red and Leaf Green. I guess it's not that unrealistic.

Still feels bizarre though.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Let's say your favorite series already reppy in smash got ALL the characters you'd want in as playable fighters, what would it look like?
Me;.
Xenoblade:
Shulk
Fiora
Melia
Elma
Rex with Pyra and Mythra
Pyra/Mythra solo
Malos
Nia stance change between driver and blade.
Tora and Poppi
Lora and Jin
Noah
Mio
Ethel
Matthew

I love Xenoblade too. It truly is peak fiction. My list is bit different, and more conservative.

• Shulk
• Alvis (echo of Shulk)
• Pyra/Mythra/Pneuma
• Malos
• Noah
• Mio
• Rex (XC3)
• Matthew

Nia barely missed out, but I figured other characters from 2 out-prioritised her.

 

[dezeray112]

Let's say your favorite series already reppy in smash got ALL the characters you'd want in as playable fighters, what would it look like?
Me;.
Xenoblade:
Shulk
Fiora
Melia
Elma
Rex with Pyra and Mythra
Pyra/Mythra solo
Malos
Nia stance change between driver and blade.
Tora and Poppi
Lora and Jin
Noah
Mio
Ethel
Matthew

If it were based upon Tekken:

• Kazuya Mishima
• Jin Kazama
• Paul Phoenix
• Marshall Law
• King
• Nina Williams
• Yoshimitsu
• Lili Rochefort
• Hwoarang
• Ling Xiaoyu
• Reina Mishima

 

[Laniv]

Let's say your favorite series already reppy in smash got ALL the characters you'd want in as playable fighters, what would it look like?
Me;.
Xenoblade:
Shulk
Fiora
Melia
Elma
Rex with Pyra and Mythra
Pyra/Mythra solo
Malos
Nia stance change between driver and blade.
Tora and Poppi
Lora and Jin
Noah
Mio
Ethel
Matthew

Villager
Isabelle
Tom Nook
Crazy Redd (Tom Nook echo)
...Lottie???

...gosh that was short. Lemme do one for Mario

Mario
Luigi
Peach
Daisy
Toad
Toadette
Bowser
Bowser Jr.
Rosalina & Luma
Dr. Mario
Piranha Plant
Lakitu
Pauline
King Boo

 

[SharkLord]

Correct me if I'm wrong - but you could say a lot of the same things about Robin, right?

Personally, I think Edelgard would have been a more valuable addition longterm. Not really blowing any minds here, I've said it before and I'm not the only one who has. Fire Emblem finally gets a villain, we get a more focused axe-wielder moveset, and she's (probably?) the most popular character from the game. But it's not too likely they'd fully walk back on Byleth to add her, or add her as an entirely new unique character alongside them - what's done is done and Byleth was designed to represent all three routes. Hell, Lucina and Chrom only got as lucky as they did because they were easy clone fodder. If you're gonna go all in with a brand new Fire Emblem character who isn't from the most recent title, you're probably better off just adding Lyn finally.

Bottom line though, even if I would rather this did happen, there isn't much reason to walk back on it. If it was Edelgard in Byleth's place, she probably would have got nearly as much scorn from the community at large simply because she was another Fire Emblem character. Sakurai saw it most fitting to represent the game with its central protagonist so I'd wager it's more about representing Three Houses as a whole vs pulling its most beloved characters in this case.

Yeah, for what it's worth Lucina was head and shoulders above any other Awakening character. Hypothetically you could get away with dropping her in, maybe decloning her just a little, and calling it a day. That said, Robin didn't get quite so much backlash, so I'm not sure they'd have as much incentive to drop 'em.

As for Byleth, part of the criticism was the stigma of Fire Emblem characters all "being the same." While Byleth wasn't a clone in any way, they're still using the usual blue-haired sword lord archetype, and the extra Relics don't change the fact that the Sword of the Creator is their main weapon. While Edelgard or Dmitri or whoever would still have to handle the FE stigma, I'd imagine a unique weapon type and differing design might ease the criticism a bit. In addition, Byleth was chosen in advance, so without a fandom developed yet the easiest choice would be the Avatar character. Now that we've had about five years of discourse since Three Houses has released, it's a bit easier to see who the fan-favorites are.

Though yeah, regardless of how we feel about Byleth's kit, it's true that they already have a character implemented and it would just be easier to bring them back instead of piecing together a newcomer. There's a lot of hubbub in both the Three Houses and Smash communities that they might take into account, but like you said, it's still more realistic to just keep going with Byleth.

 

[Garteam]

Saying "MY work on Ultimate is complete" and having someone else be in charge of more DLC wouldn't be lying.

Also, hotter-than-the-sun take in regards to Ultimate DX/FP3: Continued support for Ultimate DLC would be more likely to give Ultimate DX supporters what they want than an actual port of SSBU. For one thing, more of the budget could be devoted to making new content, not just relicensing all of the old stuff. It'd be more beneficial for your wallet too, you won't have to pay $300-400 for a new console, $60-70 for an Ultimate port, and then $30 for the newcomers. You just do the latter.

Of course, we are really, really, REALLY running out of time for that. We're finally getting a Direct in June, and FP2's first three fighters were spread throughout June-October-December...so if more Smash DLC is one of their final Switch projects like everything else in the June Direct presumably will be, it's now or never.

I've thought about the idea of additional Ultimate DLC a lot and it does make a good degree of sense on paper. Now that hardware improvements have largely plateaued, we see people stick with software for longer and longer (GTA V, Counterstrike, Fortnite, Mario Kart 8, etc.). Smash could easily be one of those games, seeing how it still continues to light up sales charts five years after its original release. It also circumvents the issue of re-licensing content and/or needing to make a new game that can compete with Ultimate

The biggest issue is still Sakurai, though. Yeah, he could hand the reins over to another dev, but Smash is still his baby. I don't think he would have discussed the series in the same prospective manner he used at the end of his Ultimate video.

 

[Guynamednelson]

The biggest issue is still Sakurai, though. Yeah, he could hand the reins over to another dev, but Smash is still his baby. I don't think he would have discussed the series in the same prospective manner he used at the end of his Ultimate video.

That "It'd be more beneficial for your wallet too" thing could also be an issue. They might have 5 million people pay for a new $30 pass overall...but they might also have 5 million people pay for a new $60 game within its first month, on top of having their new $350 console earn some new buyers too.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think Sakurai's awareness that Byleth would get a bad reception and the rehabilitation of his inclusion over the past four and a half years has reduced the probability he'd be cut due to the initial backlash. If anything, I think Sakurai and Nintendo's takeaway from Byleth's inclusion was the general attitude of consumers is that there are presently too many Fire Emblem characters in Smash, rather than Byleth himself being a problem.

Corrin, Incineroar, and Piranha Plant all had contentious announcements and are often seen as some of the most likely characters to be cut, but correlation doesn't equal causation here. These characters are moreso likely to be cut because they're from franchises with a large number of supporting characters and there are 5 to 8 veterans in those franchises that fans generally agree out-prioritize these characters.

It helps that Byleth and Smash in general are far removed from the context (a mystery character, a badly paced reveal video, an unexpected first party pick after a series of third party ones, no other big Smash or Nintendo news to mitigate disappointment, rumors about potential prominent non-Nintendo characters getting the spot only to get a FE fighter) that heightened antipathy toward the former to begin with. It's much easier for everyone to see the merits of them in SSB now and view the genuinely dubious nature of their showcase a bit more clinically.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

As someone who used to be a true believer in more Ultimate content, Sakurai reiterated that the Sora Amiibo update was the final update for Ultimate and that was recent enough to conclude Sakurai hasn't changed his mind.

Alternatively, Sakurai could have been lying, but that's not really in his character. He's usually pretty transparent as far as game devs go.

His work on Ultimate is over... But his work on Ultimate 2 has just begun!

 

[Louie G.]

Yeah, for what it's worth Lucina was head and shoulders above any other Awakening character. Hypothetically you could get away with dropping her in, maybe decloning her just a little, and calling it a day. That said, Robin didn't get quite so much backlash, so I'm not sure they'd have as much incentive to drop 'em.

Yeah on that note, I'm pretty certain that Lucina will return. Her popularity and ease of development are enough to justify it, but I feel like some kind of derivative, "beginner" version of Marth is something that the team may deem valuable now. I'm convinced she's established herself as a staple.

Granted, if you want my honest opinion on the character I'd say I don't really like that Lucina abandons the patience and nuance of Marth's kit. Roy is a much better rushdown-oriented foil after his rework, however people also like Lucina and if Sakurai doesn't have a problem with it then it's a pointless hill to die on. She seems more popular to play than Marth himself nowadays so I presume her absence would be felt, and that's an easy thing to avoid. Maybe just level the two of them out so Lucina doesn't outright feel like the optimal choice and get rewarded for working less hard.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Byleth has a double irony since the extra weapons failed to remove the criticism revolving around swords, and the Sword of the Creator is the only weapon he has that does anything particularly unique.

...a badly paced reveal video...

Sothis: "Too many swordsmen are there? What will you do?"
Byleth: changes sex
Sothis: "Clever. Here's some weapons I stole from other characters."

 

[Guynamednelson]

She seems more popular to play than Marth himself nowadays

It's not that she's easier so much as it is that it's...more inconvenient to land tippers as Marth when there's less ways to microspace. I think Sakurai's going to have to stop trying to purge everything the previous Smashes' metas comprised of to level the playing field between the two.

 

[Noipoi]

Byleth’s whole reveal was a marvelous showcase of poor execution.

They were never gonna go over that well, but so many elements were in place that just made it all the more disappointing to a lot of people. Some of it wasn’t Nintendo’s fault, but still.

 

[Louie G.]

Byleth has a double irony since the extra weapons failed to remove the criticism revolving around swords, and the Sword of the Creator is the only weapon he has that does anything particularly unique.

In my opinion, Byleth banked a bit too hard on this as some unique gimmick when the only reason it stands out is juxtaposed against other Fire Emblem characters. I kind of roll my eyes at the prospect that "attack in x direction and it's a different weapon" is some compelling gameplay hook and not par for the course. Kind of a byproduct of how every character had some nutty thing going on and Byleth didn't, so they had to at least pretend they were treading new waters. I'm not saying they needed to be crazy unique but the presentation fell flat for me.

And yeah, funny enough their sword had always been the most interesting part to me too. Even prior to seeing them in action, I was looking into the character and was compelled by it. Their Up B antics are absolutely the most fun thing they have going on in my book, I've been styled on plenty by that attack and I can never be mad at it.

I'm not sure how I'd rework them if at all, at this point I don't think I would, but I do feel like they went about their presentation all the wrong way. As if trying to save face, like look at how many weapons this Fire Emblem character has (are you guys happy now) instead of committing to more of a central idea. It's always come off a little sloppy and unfocused to me, although they make up for it because they're at least pretty fun to play. A lot of my friends seem to feel the same, so at least at the end of the day they were able to assimilate and gain some goodwill by simply feeling good to control.

Bleh, I always feel tacky criticizing Byleth. I feel like I have legitimate, reasonable points to make but it'll always be muddled by the greater backlash behind the character simply existing. So just as a disclaimer, I'm not trying to be nasty about that part.

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

Sakurai going "This is top secret, even Nintendo employees will be shocked to see who it is" before the reveal makes sense in hindsight but is definitely really funny.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I think Sakurai's going to have to stop trying to purge everything the previous Smashes' metas comprised of to level the playing field between the two.

An alternate option I've considered: Chrom has distinct attack animations from Roy where he sticks his sword out further, giving him more range, which helps him be more than just Roy without reverse tippers. I guess they could do the opposite for Lucina: Give her her own animations where she doesn't stick her sword out as far as Marth.

 

[Noipoi]

Sakurai going "This is top secret, even Nintendo employees will be shocked to see who it is" before the reveal makes sense in hindsight but is definitely really funny.

Nintendo employees when they see the new Smash Brother (it’s a blue haired Fire Emblem Lord)

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I really do love Byleth. I play them all the time.

But I really do think they have the most overrated chances of coming back.

 

[Laniv]

In my opinion, Byleth banked a bit too hard on this as some unique gimmick when the only reason it stands out is juxtaposed against other Fire Emblem characters. I kind of roll my eyes at the prospect that "attack in x direction and it's a different weapon" is some compelling gameplay hook and not par for the course. Kind of a byproduct of how every character had some nutty thing going on and Byleth didn't, so they had to at least pretend they were treading new waters. I'm not saying they needed to be crazy unique but the presentation fell flat for me.

I feel bad for Byleth because, in addition to their trailer being just kinda rough, the concept of "FE character that represents the weapon triangle" is a great concept held back by the fact that they're the eight FE character we have. To say nothing of their Classic Mode, which is just Lucina's, but in reverse. It was really just "too little, too late" for them.

And it's especially rough for them when you compare them to another newcomer from a recent installment in their RPG series: Incineroar. People weren't looking forward to it at all (especially with the Grinch thing skulking around), but Incineroar ended up winning people over with both its presentation and the fact that it's still the only pro-wrestling-themed character in the game.

What I'm saying is, both Incineroar and Byleth were both "shill picks", but Incineroar made a great first impression, while Byleth just stumbled right out of the gate.

I really do love Byleth. I play them all the time.

But I really do think they have the most overrated chances of coming back.

I'm genuinely curious, between Corrin and Byleth, who do you think is more likely?

 

[Louie G.]

I really do love Byleth. I play them all the time.

But I really do think they have the most overrated chances of coming back.

The main thing I think people overrate about Byleth is when I see them placed on a roster over like... Ike. I think they'd have hell to pay if they let anything like that happen. Three Houses may be successful but as we talked about, Byleth isn't inherently the most popular character on their own. I think we often misconstrue a game's sales numbers to mean the main character is automatically a big deal, while Ike is a testament to... well, kind of the opposite.

Byleth is often put on the level of Pyra and Mythra, sometimes even higher. The difference of course is how persistently beloved those two characters are beyond the success of their game, and Byleth is met with more general indifference in a vacuum. On paper they're of somewhat similar standing, but I think you'd hear a lot more outcry if we lost the latter.

But I do think Byleth has a solid chance of returning, since I don't think it needs to be a matter of one or the other with them. You can have your cake and eat it too with the most popular lord, the most unique one, and the one from the most successful game in the series - losing any more than 2-3 characters would feel like overcompensation unless we're down to the wire and Roy / Corrin are dangling by a thread. Engage did just okay and Three Houses will likely be talked about for years to come, so to keep things fresh and contemporary you may as well let one of the very few Switch guys on the roster hang.

What I'm saying is, both Incineroar and Byleth were both "shill picks", but Incineroar made a great first impression, while Byleth just stumbled right out of the gate.

I won't harp on it too much more, but I really do believe Edelgard would have made that lasting impression. Oh well.

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

Byleth would benefit from just making their down special Divine Pulse in the form of a counter, it's an obvious exclusion from their moveset and fits their playstyle as a patient mid-range zoner, replacing a move that's completely useless. That said, their down special is really fun to use in casual play, so I get why it is the way it is. In general Byleth definitely feels very built around trying to shoehorn in a gimmick to avoid having another plain swordsman, and it's obvious Sakurai could see the backlash coming, it reminds me of how some fan Isaac movesets try really hard to avoid having him use his sword. But like, Byleth is still a fun character to play with an intuitive moveset and playstyle, so mission accomplished I guess lol. It's just funny to look back on.

 

[Louie G.]

Byleth would benefit from just making their down special Divine Pulse in the form of a counter

If Byleth was constructed as kind of the anti-Fire Emblem swordsman (lol), I think a counter was something that must have been shot down pretty quickly. Even if it genuinely makes perfect sense here, if we got another FE character AND they used a counter it would be over. That'd be horrible optics and Sakurai knew that.

 

[Garteam]

Here's a question for the thread: Are there any characters you feel are generally slept on as far as base game newcomers go?

I'd say Bomberman, Alucard, X, and (a unique) Octoling personally.

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

If Byleth was constructed as kind of the anti-Fire Emblem swordsman (lol), I think a counter was something that must have been shot down pretty quickly. Even if it genuinely makes perfect sense here, if we got another FE character AND they used a counter it would be over. That'd be horrible optics and Sakurai knew that.

Yeah exactly lol, kind of a rock and a hard place. It is what it is since the complaints of "why does byleth not have divine pulse???" and competitive viability are definitely minor in comparison to everything else.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Here's a question for the thread: Are there any characters you feel are generally slept on as far as base game newcomers go?

I'd say Bomberman, Alucard, X, and (a unique) Octoling personally.

I'm a simple man. I see unique Octoling, I give a like.

 

[ninjahmos]

Here's a question for the thread: Are there any characters you feel are generally slept on as far as base game newcomers go?

I'd say Bomberman, Alucard, X, and (a unique) Octoling personally.

I'd say Crono, Chibi-Robo and Takamaru.

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

Here's a question for the thread: Are there any characters you feel are generally slept on as far as base game newcomers go?

I'd say Bomberman, Alucard, X, and (a unique) Octoling personally.

I'm not really sure you can gauge too much on DLC vs base game newcomers other than DLC having to sell and it probably being easier to negotiate out there third parties for individual character packs. I would say that in general I think a Genshin Impact character will probably happen and I don't see that discussed too much.


Sakuna will also bring the Rice-And-RuinSweep unfortunately.

 

[Noipoi]

Here's a question for the thread: Are there any characters you feel are generally slept on as far as base game newcomers go?

I'd say Bomberman, Alucard, X, and (a unique) Octoling personally.

We’ve got a few dedicated dweebs here championing an Undertale character, but I don’t really see it anywhere else.

An indie rep isn’t guaranteed, but if they are on the table, I think Undertale is the wave.

 

[Louie G.]

Are there any characters you feel are generally slept on as far as base game newcomers go?

At risk of sounding like a broken record, a Splatoon newcomer besides Octoling. We'll probably get Octoling in some fashion anyway, but there's a wealth of neat options beyond that which could be compelling on their own. The idols in particular are probably some of the most popular Nintendo characters from the last decade. My chips are down on Off the Hook but Squid Sisters are pretty reasonable picks too. Splatoon has grown into a pillar for Nintendo, and like Zelda or Kirby in the past the door is open for more than one character if they wanted.

I think the tides have shifted a bit on Tom Nook lately, at least here, so I'm not sure I'd classify him as too heavily slept on. But I do still think people undersell Animal Crossing as a whole, and its potential to deliver on fun characters beyond cloning Villager again, so I suppose it's worth the mention. KK too I guess.

Hmm... I also genuinely believe that Sans is among the most obvious third party additions and has a truly significant chance of being playable as early as base game. Toby Fox is in bed with Nintendo and Undertale is a phenomenon overseas in a way that most western properties are not. Slightly Greninja'd by Noipoi but it's worth doubling down on. I feel like there's another side of this who believes Sans is among the most overrated characters for next game and to that I guess I'd say they're proving my point. In general I think these modern third party icons get neglected in favor of anything before 2006, so it's kind of tough to argue against the wave that is still viewing Undertale as some passing fad nine years later.

 

[Perkilator]

Here's a question for the thread: Are there any characters you feel are generally slept on as far as base game newcomers go?

I'd say Bomberman, Alucard, X, and (a unique) Octoling personally.

Based on the last four Spirit Events, I think the following newcomers might be likely:

• Rauru
• A Gen 9 Pokémon (depending on timing)
• Oatchi
• Noah & Mio
• Octoling
• Zagreus
• Power Pro-kun
• At least some new content from Mario Wonder and Peach Showtime

I know a new Pokémon and Noah & Mio are the kinds of newcomers people expect, but I wanted to highlight them here along with the other stuff I mentioned.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

At risk of sounding like a broken record, a Splatoon newcomer besides Octoling. We'll probably get Octoling in some fashion anyway, but there's a wealth of neat options beyond that which could be compelling on their own. The idols in particular are probably some of the most popular Nintendo characters from the last decade. My chips are down on Off the Hook but Squid Sisters are pretty reasonable picks too. Splatoon has grown into a pillar for Nintendo, and like Zelda or Kirby in the past the door is open for more than one character if they wanted.

I used to not really be fond of the idea of playable idols, but Side Order gave us Pearl Drone and shows us the weapon classes each of the idols and even some major NPCs main in a way that isn't just banter on the news so I can totally vibe with it.

I just... don't expect them to pick into the idols before we get an Octoling, be it as an Echo, as alts for Inkling or as a unique fighter.

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

I feel like Zagreus could be like a Joker-style surprise pick, Hades is one of those games that blew up pretty much everywhere and has massive appeal and popularity, it sold 300K units in just its launch weekend coming out of early access and Hades 2 is currently peaked at over 100K concurrent players on Steam in just early access.

Has obvious setbacks like Supergiant being Western, but if Smash was to have an indie character, Zagreus would certainly be a fitting choice.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I feel like Zagreus could be like a Joker-style surprise pick, Hades is one of those games that blew up pretty much everywhere and has massive appeal and popularity, it sold 300K units in just its launch weekend coming out of early access and Hades 2 is currently peaked at over 100K concurrent players on Steam in just early access.

Has obvious setbacks like Supergiant being Western, but if Smash was to have an indie character, Zagreus would certainly be a fitting choice.

It should also be noted it wouldn't be the first time negotiating with Western-owned IPs for character slots (Banjo and Steve) nor even the first time Nintendo talked with Supergiant about Hades content in Smash (the Zagreus spirit)

Not a lot of indie games can brag about some of their content being part of Smash Ultimate's Spirit lineup. Most notably, it did so before Undertale (still baffled we never got a Sans fight despite getting the Mii outfit).