Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[SPEN18]

I don't like to assume people's intentions for arguing a certain way.

But is this a manifestation of "let's only have newcomers in DLC so that nobody gets cut and we only get third parties"?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

But is this a manifestation of "let's only have newcomers in DLC so that nobody gets cut and we only get third parties"?

Darth seems pretty intent on his argument being that Nintendo should literally withhold pre-planned content for DLC.

Y'know, the very thing Capcom ****ing got blasted for in 2012 with SFxT.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Not gonna lie, one of the earliest things I did in this website is exactly that; seek out someone who'd get the 3DS version but wouldn't get the Wii U one so we could both have a free Mewtwo.

I always buy both versions myself, but it was honestly a great model.

Especially since in Japan, they want to encourage connecting. While it's more awkward with the Wii U and 3DS in itself, it makes sense. It's the entire reason we have dual Pokemon games, and many others that try the same method. Since Smash never got paid DLC before, an intent to see if it could work along with other reasons was a great plan to attempt. It did work, and they also knew people were okay with Smash DLC by that point. Paid came later. Naturally this worked, but it never stopped Sakurai's design philosophy. He still will always make a finalized game, and any DLC is always going to be later in development as is.

At least, that's if he's in charge, and if things never change. We can't assume it'll stay that way forever either. He's getting older. That said, there's no good reason to believe it would change. If he's an advisor, it's extremely likely for that to happen. There's a huge amount of respect given to him. He's also noted that he makes Smash out of obligation when asked, and focuses heavily on it(to the point of no other projects take priority). I think it also created some health issues, and he doesn't give his team enough to do compared to himself, but he's noted he's working on fixing this as well. It's part of why Bandai-Namco was brought in, to make the workload easier overall on everyone.

Darth seems pretty intent on his argument being that Nintendo should literally withhold pre-planned content for DLC.

Y'know, the very thing Capcom ****ing got blasted for in 2012 with SFxT.

Yep. That's pretty much the thing. ...Which they know Sakurai hates, and won't do it in Smash unless he's literally not among the project at all. And probably not even then. Nintendo can be ****ty about it too, no doubt, but as I said, they respect Sakurai.

 

[Noipoi]

Darth seems pretty intent on his argument being that Nintendo should literally withhold pre-planned content for DLC.

Y'know, the very thing Capcom ****ing got blasted for in 2012 with SFxT.

The man has a master plan for exactly how things should go with the next Smash. I kinda admire the conviction.

But the funny thing is he has absolutely zero say in the development of this game, just like the rest of us. So I wonder what’ll happen once we start getting info on the game

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Yep. That's pretty much the thing. ...Which they know Sakurai hates, and won't do it in Smash unless he's literally not among the project at all. And probably not even then. Nintendo can be ****ty about it too, no doubt, but as I said, they respect Sakurai.

I don't really recall the last time Nintendo decided to take some already finished or planned content and intentionally delayed it to sell as paid DLC.

It's typically done in a live-service free thing if they do something like that.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Darth seems pretty intent on his argument being that Nintendo should literally withhold pre-planned content for DLC.

Should is irrelevant. It's what's going to happen. Because...that's how games work now. That's how Ultimate worked.

And not only did it not hurt Ultimate, Ultimate was more successful than ever. So they're going to do it again, whether you want them to or not.

Y'know, the very thing Capcom ****ing got blasted for in 2012 with SFxT.

And the very thing they did for SF6, and nobody batted an eye. Because, unless it's on the disc, nobody gives a ****.

 

[TheQuester]

how will the community react if they actually added a genshin rep as dlc.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I don't really recall the last time Nintendo decided to take some already finished or planned content and intentionally delayed it to sell as paid DLC.

It's typically done in a live-service free thing if they do something like that.

I don't either. I just remember they weren't really against the concept in general. But either way, they're not heavily into that either. We've had some crappy launches like Mario Tennis Switch, but... that wasn't paid either.

So never mind on that. I'd still argue that making that Mario Tennis game with barely anything new and releasing it that fast is ****ty, but in a different way. You didn't pay extra, which was still at least reasonable, but it's still handled poorly in that regard. It would've made more sense to release it a tad later, and have new content come on the "second round" so it's a better seller but also more pleasing. The price is fair if you look at the free DLC in total, at least. But that takes too much time to entice people. You gotta give a bit more before the DLC, even if that means a minor delay. How long before the first DLC even came? I forget.

 

[Noipoi]

Should is irrelevant. It's what's going to happen. Because...that's how games work now. That's how Ultimate worked.

And not only did it not hurt Ultimate, Ultimate was more successful than ever. So they're going to do it again, whether you want them to or not.

I mean, you could phrase any prediction like that if you wanted.

Nintendo’s Switch 2 launch title WILL be a Waluigi dating game, whether you like it or not.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Should is irrelevant. It's what's going to happen. Because...that's how games work now. That's how Ultimate worked.

And not only did it not hurt Ultimate, Ultimate was more successful than ever. So they're going to do it again, whether you want them to or not.

Ultimate was not more successful than ever because of its DLC. It was successful due to the whole "Everyone is Here!" and how many of its newcomers were influenced by the Ballot. You're taking two unrelated things and claiming they're connected.

The DLC did well, and a lot of them are the result of years of talk but they were not things planned for the main game withheld for later. Negotiations were settled well after Ultimate's initial project plan had been decided on (heck, four of the DLCs debuted in games that released after that project plan, five if you count Hero due to Luminary)

It must have simply felt more convenient to shove them as post-launch DLC instead of extending the dev time to add a character that was never initially planned in the first place.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I mean, you could phrase any prediction like that if you wanted.

Look. If you guys really want to hold on to the hope that Smash 6 is going to have 15 newcomers at launch, then congratulations. You're as delusional as I am with my dreams of "EiH2".

Ultimate was not more successful than ever because of its DLC. It was successful due to the whole "Everyone is Here!" and how many of its newcomers were influenced by the Ballot. You're taking two unrelated things and claiming they're connected.

Well, so are you. Because factual data on the exact reasons for Ultimates success don't exist. You're just speculating, like me.

 

[Noipoi]

Look. If you guys really want to hold on to the hope that Smash 6 is going to have 15 newcomers at launch, then congratulations. You're as delusional as I am with my dreams of "EiH2" .

I never said 15!

I said 10-12

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I never said 15!

I said 10-12

Yeah, I'm the one who said 15.

If any of you are gonna call out someone for being delusional, at least say it to the right person

 

[DarthEnderX]

I never said 15!

I said 10-12

If they don't EiH again, then 10 is within the realm of possibility.

Negotiations were settled well after Ultimate's initial project plan had been decided on

Negotiations were settled after, but some of them started well before. They said as much about Minecraft. So Nintendo knew from the planning stages that Minecraft would come to Smash. And had to have known it wasn't going to be base game pretty early on.

All this "DLC wasn't part of the original plan for Ultimate" is a fantasy.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Negotiations were settled after, but some of them started well before. They said as much about Minecraft. So Nintendo knew from the planning stages that Minecraft would come to Smash. And had to have known it wasn't going to be base game pretty early on.

All this "DLC wasn't part of the original plan for Ultimate" is a fantasy.

So you're genuinely going to make me believe that Min Min and Aegis, two characters Sakurai had explicitly said were too late to be considered for base game... were considered for base game but withheld for DLC because money?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

So you're genuinely going to make me believe that Min Min and Aegis, two characters Sakurai had explicitly said were too late to be considered for base game... were considered for base game but withheld for DLC because money?

Oh, yeah, I forgot about that. Besides, he didn't choose them, Nintendo did, full stop. The only notable thing is Min Min was asked to be in from the creator, which given how things are, would've gone to Nintendo who would ask Sakurai. It's the only explanation that doesn't directly contradict a constant amount of statements.

Also, we know Rex was considered, which is why he got the Mii costume too. But nobody was moved to DLC at any point. Cut modes are something we don't have clear details on, but the 11 newcomers and veterans were a finalized roster with zero changes in 2015. July 2017 DLC was greenlit by Nintendo(this would be when PP was considered at the earliest), and 2018 November is when negotiations were finished. I believe it was also said that in March 2018 they talked about Banjo & Kazooie?

To go on a tangent, we don't entirely know when every character was brought to Sakurai order-wise, but we do know what order negotiations finished. That's specifically their release order, since that's the only time they can get enough work done to release.

On another note, this also means Steve wasn't actually planned to be in Smash outright for a lonnnnng time. His plan started when negotiations finished, which is how most DLC goes. Very rare cases Sakurai might have something worked on as proof of concept(Bayonetta is the only potential case we have) before negotiations start. But yeah, things don't get held back for DLC. Sakurai has stated it clearly as such he doesn't do things that way.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

So you're genuinely going to make me believe that Min Min and Aegis, two characters Sakurai had explicitly said were too late to be considered for base game... were considered for base game but withheld for DLC because money?

Do I have to repeat a previous history lesson on when characters were picked for Ultimate, now? >:V

 

[Ivander]

I can understand Hero being withheld a bit because of the Dragon Quest music deal. Minecraft was definitely being worked on, but I assume the reason Steve took a while was because the deal with Minecraft wasn't finalised yet before Fighters Pass 1. Most of the others I heavily doubt were planned during base game and Sora was definitely not successfully planned during base game.
Sora was a very miraculous situation where Sakurai thought he'd never successfully get Sora until he somehow managed to have that chance encounter with the Disney executive at an event and with their help managed to talk with Disney regarding Sora most likely during early Fighters Pass 1. Hence when Sakurai revealed Fighters Pass 2 during Banjo or Terry's focused Presents, when Fighters Pass 2 was first revealed, it only showed the 5 hidden characters until all of the sudden, the 6th spot suddenly forces itself in, probably to represent the result of them successfully getting Sora in time for Fighters Pass 2.

 

[Schnee117]

This is a good example of why game dev is so secretive.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

It's a bit misleading for Hero. They weren't "held off". It's more better to say they weren't possible for base because things weren't done in time for negotiations. So it being an early DLC character idea(which is right after Joker) makes a ton of sense. They were considered for base, apparently(it was never cleared up entirely), but were always going to be DLC by that point, if it ever finished negotiating.

A lot lines up, really. We just don't have any clear details on Joker or Terry, heh. I mean, we can suggest that Nintendo wanted games from the company, so choosing a prominent character from their franchises was easier too. B&K was actually noted to "play it on Microsoft", so obviously this had nothing to do with Nintendo system sales at all, but they were also related to the ballot, respectively.

 

[Ivander]

This is a good example of why game dev is so secretive.

Probably for the same reasons the Smash Ballot will never be shown to the public.

 

[DarthEnderX]

So you're genuinely going to make me believe that Min Min and Aegis, two characters Sakurai had explicitly said were too late to be considered for base game... were considered for base game but withheld for DLC because money?

It's not all or nothing. Some characters were planned ahead of time. Others weren't.

I'm saying that trying to push a narrative that Ultimate having DLC was some kind of last minute afterthought is nonsense.

And since it was such a resounding success for Ultimate, they're going to do it again in Smash 6. And since they know they're going to do it again in Smash 6, they aren't going to give away most of their newcomers(the thing that drives the most DLC sales) in the base game.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Plus, Sakurai can only talk about game development in some cases. He's still under NDA for a lot of it. The tiny amount he says is only cause the companies allow stuff to be said. Even if it's years later. It's even muddled with 3rd party companies.

It's no different from beta content being often tight-lipped. Behind the scenes stuff however is even more, because while we get some beta content, that's more because of previews. When a game is cancelled, sometimes they are allowed to release old information(but sometimes a game can be re-picked up).

But either way, it's what was said a bit earlier. Talking about game development causes a lot of trouble in conversations. From people refusing to understand that things aren't what their theories were to hate towards Directors for not choosing a character/thing they wanted in. Etc. It's a landmine.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Here's a new topic. Let's talk moveset design.

Ignoring any discussion regarding likelihood, priority or whether or not he should be in...

Seriously. DON'T do it.

How would you personally design Bandana Waddle Dee's moveset?

This is super late, but I wanted to post at least the special move ideas I had. Didn't end up having enough time to write down a full moveset like I wanted to. I'll probably complete and revise this one later on.

Neutral Special: A spear stab that launches Bandana Dee forward. Similar to Little Mac's Neutral Special, the attack can be charged and it's power and distance depends on how long it's charged, but the uncharged version is still a strong and swift attack, and, while the fully charged version isn't as strong as Mac's fully charged punch, it's compensated by having more ranged and less end lag.

Side Special: Waddle Spear Throw + Triple Spear Throw. Bandana Waddle Dee throws a spear forward in an arc. The attack can be charged to have Bandana Dee throws two spears or three spears total.

Down Special: Moon Drop. Bandana Waddle Dee flies downward with a strong spear attack that stabs the ground. An aura surrounds him as he falls downward that extends the move's hitbox, but the tip of the spear remains the sweet spot.

Up Special: Waddle Copter. Bandana Waddle Dee spins his spears like a helicopter blade as a recovery move. Travels a higher altitude than it does the Kirby games. Otherwise, it functions almost identically to the games as enemies struck above it will be juggled by the move.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

The amount of newcomers we get in a brand new Smash game’s base roster is going to come down to how many veterans return. How many characters do you think would be cut? How many of those cut characters had completely unique movesets?

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

That doesn't make them newcomers though.

No veteran character has to truly be "made from scratch". Because even if they have to remake their model and animation, all the design work on their movset has already been done before.

That's the least, though. Some characters received basically no changes from Smash 4. Look at Greninja or Duck Hunt.
The Ice Climbers by comparison had to get new models, new animations for most moves, reworks to their team mechanic and to some attacks. It's way closer to the amount of work needed for K. Rool than to that that went into Shulk or Falco or Lucas.
Even less complex characters like Wolf and Pichu have been heavily reworked. They do the same things they did in Melee and Brawl only at a very superficial level.

There's no need to do all that work for any veteran next time.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

It actually "is from scratch" in the same way they took an immense amount of work to create in the first place. None of the clones in Melee outside of Dr. Mario were super easy to make. They all had to have new models and reworked animations(due to notably only Dr. Mario having the exact same bodyshape), so the workload is still a lot. And all of that doesn't equal the amount needed for a newcomer who has no base model. In addition, with Ultimate, models are vastly more complicated and different. And the reason the Melee ones were easy is because they didn't even change that many animations. Ultimate goes the other route.

Most returning Cut Veterans were not clone types, so took nearly as much work as a newcomer(Ice Climbers, Snake, Ivysaur, Squirtle). Of the clone types, only Pichu is even nearly similar to Pikachu's model(and not even that similar). Young Link is completely different from both Link and Toon Link, requiring significantly more work. Wolf is no different, and he barely made it into Brawl, but now he has even less used from Fox in general. Less than 70% of the work was done, and their models weren't nearly as similar now due to tons of changes alongside animations Fox already had that were different. That means only one returning clone characters that was cut was remotely easy, and still not that easy. Also, Pokemon Trainer got new animations too, plus had to retool a second all new model as well. While less work than Ivysaur and Squirtle, it still required significant work. That's 8 overall with only 1 decently easy.

Besides that, said clones I mentioned are way harder to make than the normal Echo. Hell, they're more work than Dr. Mario would be, due to not sharing the same bodyshape. Pichu would take more work to recreate, using Pikachu as a base, but also still doing a lot more unique stuff. Like, none of them are nearly as easy work as Dr. Mario or Ken(the two closest to each other in terms of Echo VS Clone differences). Now, some might not need as much as Isabelle, like Pichu is clearly a bit easier to work with in comparison. However, Wolf required some pretty big differences, and Young Link is probably about on par with Isabelle instead, with maybe being slightly easier.

Then you got Snake, Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Ice Climbers. Squirtle at most can take a single move from Mario with F.L.U.D.D., but the rest are significantly unique instead. Though anything that was used to create them from previous characters can still apply too. Or retools from a newer character, etc. But you can't apply that simply cause "same weapon". Ice Climbers can't just magically be retooled from some of King Dedede's attacks. It's only if the skeleton and animations can be properly retooled, and that's unclear. They don't have a similar bodyshape in any way(like Ike and Chrom do, hence easier to take Ike's attack and retool it for Chrom).

Speaking of, let's note that Chrom couldn't take all his animations from Roy besides the Ike one mentioned. Why? Cause he uses his weapon a different way. While it's noted he took his animations mainly from Roy, we don't know exactly how he has his sword that way. It's a fair theory to think he may have borrowed some of that from Marth, but it's just as likely they were redone so they more closely matched Roy's specific animation pieces. Basically just editing the model and applying the same animations. Either way, we don't know. And yes, it's something I didn't think about till now. The only thing we really knew is that Echoes were balanced by using their counterpart to testing. Chrom still fights like Roy bar his gimmick and one move, though. And we already know Roy no longer fights like Marth(they share some animations, mind you, but their playstyles are quite different).

That's mainly what I can think of when it comes to noting how development is more complicated than basing it solely upon "returning veteran". There's a lot more to it than that. Especially with, well, not as many recycled stuff as is realistically possible. This is why Mewtwo is treated like he required the work of a Newcomer in 4. It's the same thing with Snake, Ice Climbers, etc. The only difference is some of them require slightly less work than a fully unique Newcomer. Also keep in mind many unique Newcomers still required less work than some, due to having a base that heavily helped(to go back to Ness for a moment from a while back, he has some ground attacks retooled from Mario. He doesn't require the same amount of work like Fox would, due to having some of the workload shortened). But he still requires an immense amount of work. That's what makes it kind of unique. There's a ton of Veterans, and each have a different amount of work put into them, divided into multiple categories, which isn't even strictly based upon "Echo, Clone, Semi-Clone, Unique" either. It's, well, misleading, because some Unique Characters may take the work of a Semi-Clone, while others may not, etc. You could make a full chart of what's what, and it'd be pretty long. XD

 

[SpecterFlower]

how will the community react if they actually added a genshin rep as dlc.

Awfully


Minecraft was lucky enough to come out when people hated Fortnite and started thinking minecraft was cool again.

had Steve came out in the smash 4 days it would have been a sight to see.

Same thing as Fortnite , leaugue and Roblox

games with massively more reach than anything else in the industry by a massive amount.

maybe matched by Pokémon media but not Pokémon games.

Though I all see of them except for Roblox (after the exploitation drama I doubt they will ever get into smash) being added one day.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

how will the community react if they actually added a genshin rep as dlc.

Pretty good. It's an extremely popular series.

Of course, not every community will be the same. But generally, it'll do well.

 

[DarthEnderX]

There's no need to do all that work for any veteran next time.

Unless Smash 6, ya know...has the kind of engine upgrade that Brawl or Smash 4 had.

 

[Gorgonzales]

Probably for the same reasons the Smash Ballot will never be shown to the public.

I do think there's no harm in showing truncated results for the Smash ballot, as in only showing placements of characters that actually made it into Ultimate. Seeing Sora in 1st, Banjo in 2nd, and then a jump to K. Rool in like 5th or something would invite speculation on who the 3rd or 4th placers could have been.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I do think there's no harm in showing truncated results for the Smash ballot, as in only showing placements of characters that actually made it into Ultimate. Seeing Sora in 1st, Banjo in 2nd, and then a jump to K. Rool in like 5th or something would invite speculation on who the 3rd or 4th placers could have been.

True. And we know that Bayonetta was in 5th place in the EU regions, but not her placement beyond that. Though I might be remembering some numbers wrong, she did place relatively high. Of course, her situation is far more complicated as is, but that's our faults for datamining information we shouldn't know. XD

 

[TheQuester]

It's been 9 years since the ballot if anyone is still mad over the results they need to grow up tbh.
I wouldn't mind seeing the results at all.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

True. And we know that Bayonetta was in 5th place in the EU regions, but not her placement beyond that. Though I might be remembering some numbers wrong, she did place relatively high. Of course, her situation is far more complicated as is, but that's our faults for datamining information we shouldn't know. XD

She was actually 1st place in Europe and “among the top 5” in North America/US.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Man, we haven't had a direct in a long time.

When will the silence be broken?

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Man, we haven't had a direct in a long time.

When will the silence be broken?

Isn’t it the standard nowadays to have Direct every February, June and September? Just wait until June.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Man, we haven't had a direct in a long time.

When will the silence be broken?

It does feel like a long time. I suppose sometime close to the release of Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD is my best bet right now.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Isn’t it the standard nowadays to have Direct every February, June and September? Just wait until June.

That is the usual pattern, but we technically skipped February.

We have no clue what Nintendo's plans are for the latter half of 2024.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Man, we haven't had a direct in a long time.

When will the silence be broken?

It's a bit dependent on what Nintendo says in their investor's meeting, but realistically June. The company has been willing to forgo one major general direct but (outside the pandemic year) two in a row? Unlikely. Even with a fairly barren year in regard to major first party releases, there's probably enough for at least a Direct mini in late spring/early June.

 

[ninjahmos]

I don't know if this has already been done before, but I decided to make a moveset for Scorpion. Here it is:

Scorpion Moveset