Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[SpecterFlower]

Ah yes. The Sportsmates. Watch as they hit the ball over the net, hit the ball over the net, and checks notes hit the birdie over the net.

Truly the grand masters of unifying design features. They'll put the Rivals of Aether character designs to shame.

I wanna hear your opinion on rivals of aether character designs suddenly

 

[SPEN18]

Super Mario RPG Remake has outsold Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Foamstars, Dragon Quest Monsters: The Dark Prince, Octopath Traveller 2, and Forspoken. The only 2023-2024 Square Enix title it didn't outsell was Final Fantasy XVI, a game that was noted as not meeting sales expectations.

A remake of a 28-year-old game outsold everything but a new entry in their flagship franchise that was in development for 9 years

They made some bank off the combo of Switch install base + Mario branding. That's basically it.

That does not in any way necessarily equal motivation to push a side character in a crossover that already has the most important Mario characters featured in SMRPG. Especially over someone from one of their own franchises that actually has to rely on its own characters to perform well, rather than Mario.

Maybe the success means they're interested in doing more Nintendo-exclusive Mario games, but who knows if those would even directly follow up the original SMRPG or feature Geno at all.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Why not? Depends on what that '+' entails.
I can't see why a version of Ultimate with improved graphics, all DLC on-disc, more modes and a small bunch of new characters wouldn't be a success. It's a great value proposition.
In fact, the actual obstacle between Ultimate + and reality is that it would be too great, if anything...

It's like that part you deliberately cut off of my post provides a good example as to why it doesn't make sense.

 

[DarthEnderX]

B-b-but.....Everyone is Here......FOREVER......

Saved me the trouble!

I wonder what character square-enix might push for? I asume 2B and maybe a Octopath character?

Well...they've been pushing a lot of Mana ports and remakes in recent years. And Seiken Densetsu 5 is coming out soon. So maybe a Mana character finally?

A lot of people would be really disappointed but y'know what?

I'd take it

I'd take even a Mii Gunner again if they made the head not dog****.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I still feel like they'd opt for keeping her projectile on neutral and just giving it the more standard QCF. Kikoken is traditionally a charge move, but I don't know how I'd feel about putting that on Back Special of all places.

That's one of the reasons I used the Super Turbo input for SBK. For Smash, I feel like it's more intuitive to have the forward moving attack using the charge since you're holding back then flicking forward. I'd say SBK would work fine as either forward or back special in that regard. Or they could pull a Mario Tornado and make the spinning move Down Special to try and preserve the more common down to up motion.

I also think SF6's down, down input for Up Special would be a bad call due to also being the input for fast fall. Giving it an SRK motion like in Marvel/Tatsunoko vs Capcom would just fine here imo. It also adds some uniformity in the controls for the SF cast to make it easier to swap playing between them.

And while there is room for Hyakuretsu if they include a back special for Chun, I do think rapid jab would be a serviceable spot for it, especially since rapid press moves like it served as the inspiration for rapid jab in the first place. I think it'd be fitting, similar to how Terry's Power Charge got moved to dash attack.

Back special is admittedly kind of a strange place to find Kikouken, as it makes her fireball of all things a highly difficult move to use in free for alls, especially for casuals (though to be fair they're probably not the target audience for the character). On the other hand, the fact that her fireball is more difficult to execute than others seems pretty intentional, and putting it there would keep that design intent even on a highly simplified input. Doing so also makes the move stand apart from Hadouken, even if they're functionally very similar. Also, I forgot that auto-turnaround isn't a thing in free for alls. We probably can't do side charges for that reason...

That's probably gonna force Spinning Bird Kick to be down up rather than back forward unless they wanted to make things up and do a quarter or half circle motion. Given how Sakurai has treated the fighting game characters though, I don't think that's super likely.

Yeah I completely forgot about fast falling. If we kept the input, command Tensho Kicks would have to go really high to compensate for being forced to fast fall to use it. Alternitivelly, you could make it a down up move like Terry's, but it's fighting for that input with Spinning Bird Kick. Making it a DP input also works, but I'm not sure Sakurai would go for it since it's not from a Street Fighter game. Though...does the down up motion not effectively have the same problem?

100% agree on Hundred Lightning Kicks, though I'll throw in the possibility of also being able to do it as a mashed neutral air.

Overall I think I'll stick to my guns, but as far as the inputs themselves go, my guesses are:

• Kikouken: Half Circle Forward
• Hundred Lightning Kicks: Quarter Circle Forward if it's a special move, or mash A if it isn't
• Spinning Bird Kick: Down (Charge) -> Up
• Tensho Kicks: Down -> Down or possibly DP if they really want it, but down down is proven to not work
  • Hazanshu could also reworked to work as an up special causing Tensho Kicks to be missing entirely, which has some precedent with it not being in Street Fighter 4 or 5, but would still be a little strange due to how perfect it would be as an up special
• Hazanshu: Quarter Circle Back

 

[DarthEnderX]

If a full blown, full priced remake of Chrono Trigger comes out after the next Smash releases and before the DLC for it ends how likely do you think Crono is for DLC?

I dunno. But I'm getting hard just thinking about it!

I wrote yet another list of possible newcomers / newcomers I want that assumes 18 was the upper limit for base game newcomers, since Brawl had 18 newcomers total.

Spoiler: Wishlist time again already?

83. Ryu Hayabusa [Ninja Gaiden]
84. Bill Rizer/Lance Bean [Contra]
85. Arthur [Ghosts ‘n Goblins]
86. Kunio/Riki [River City]
87. SV-001 Metal Slug [Metal Slug]
88. Jill Valentine [Resident Evil]
89. Nightmare [Soulcalibur]
90. Morrigan [Darkstalkers]
91. Kazuma Kiryu [Like a Dragon]
92. Nakoruru [Samurai Shodown]
93. Dante [Devil May Cry]
94. Bomberman [Bomberman]
95. Zero [Mega Man X]
96. Alucard [Castlevania]
97. Raiden [Metal Gear]
98. Captain Toad/Toadette [Treasure Tracker]
99. King Hippo [Punch-Out]
100. Mii Mage

Never diss the kart from Stunt Race FX!

The kart from Stunt Race FX is just a poor man's the car from R.C. Pro-Am.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

It's like that part you deliberately cut off of my post provides a good example as to why it doesn't make sense.

The Mario Kart 8 thing? Mario Kart 8 DX was just a port. The Ultimate + I was describing would be more like what Ultimate was to Smash 4. Essentially an upgrade.
I don't know if that makes sense or not, but to me it feels more palatable than a scaled-back sequel with less stuff than what was in the latest game that you can still play on the same console
Unless they really actually reinvent everything, which to me doesn't feel particularly likely, but who knows.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I wanna hear your opinion on rivals of aether character designs suddenly

I haven't played it, but I'd very much like to. The character designs seem pretty interesting, and the way their mechanics interact with the rest of their kit just seems so cool.

 

[Kirbeh]

Back special is admittedly kind of a strange place to find Kikouken, as it makes her fireball of all things a highly difficult move to use in free for alls, especially for casuals (though to be fair they're probably not the target audience for the character). On the other hand, the fact that her fireball is more difficult to execute than others seems pretty intentional, and putting it there would keep that design intent even on a highly simplified input. Doing so also makes the move stand apart from Hadouken, even if they're functionally very similar. Also, I forgot that auto-turnaround isn't a thing in free for alls. We probably can't do side charges for that reason...

That's probably gonna force Spinning Bird Kick to be down up rather than back forward unless they wanted to make things up and do a quarter or half circle motion. Given how Sakurai has treated the fighting game characters though, I don't think that's super likely.

Yeah I completely forgot about fast falling. If we kept the input, command Tensho Kicks would have to go really high to compensate for being forced to fast fall to use it. Alternitivelly, you could make it a down up move like Terry's, but it's fighting for that input with Spinning Bird Kick. Making it a DP input also works, but I'm not sure Sakurai would go for it since it's not from a Street Fighter game. Though...does the down up motion not effectively have the same problem?

100% agree on Hundred Lightning Kicks, though I'll throw in the possibility of also being able to do it as a mashed neutral air.

Overall I think I'll stick to my guns, but as far as the inputs themselves go, my guesses are:

• Kikouken: Half Circle Forward
• Hundred Lightning Kicks: Quarter Circle Forward if it's a special move, or mash A if it isn't
• Spinning Bird Kick: Down (Charge) -> Up
• Tensho Kicks: Down -> Down or possibly DP if they really want it, but down down is proven to not work
  • Hazanshu could also reworked to work as an up special causing Tensho Kicks to missing entirely, which has some precedent with it not being in Street Fighter 4 or 5, but would still be a little strange due to how perfect it would be as an up special
• Hazanshu: Quarter Circle Back

I honestly do think Sakurai would be willing to change inputs for the sake of ease of use or potential overlap. And in Chun Li's case in particular, her moves have changed inputs so often I think he'd actually be more comfortable doing so for her compared to others.

Terry for example already has an inaccurate input as Burning Knuckle used a QCB motion but was given QCF so as not to overlap with Crackshoot. I think they'd be willing to be flexible in such a case with Chun as well, plus it's technically still accurate depending on the game.

I did forget that auto-turn around was disabled in FFAs though (haven't played with multiple people in actual years.) In this case, I think they might just forego the back to forward charge and remove the input to one of her moves if need be. Using Terry as the example again, they did just that for Power Wave as there's no motion input for it at all, again, to not overlap with QCF being given to Burning Knuckle.

With that in mind, I'd update my design/prediction to something like:

Neutral Special: Kikoken - No special input or HCF (Alpha series/Third Strike)
Forward Special: Hyakuretsukyaku - QCF (SFV/6)
Back Special: Hazanshu - QCB (SF6)
Up Special: Tenshokyaku - SRK (Vs series)
Down Special: Spinning Bird Kick - Down Up Charge (most games)

 

[Chuderz]

I think this just needs to be said. Why would Sakurai want the next Smash game that could very well be his last (basically any Smash game he does from now on) to be less than Ultimate in anyway? There's always this retirement narrative surrounding him but why wouldn't he just wanna go out on Ultimate at this point if the cuts are inevitable? Why not end your career with Smash on the entry in the franchise that summarizes your career with the series completely? So close to 100 unique fighters but nope cuts? So close to having all stages return but nope cuts? I'm not trying to be mean here but it seems absurd to act like the cuts-spec has the postion of strength. At best it's equal to Ultimate DX/2 spec but it's constantly treated like it's the stronger position when I just don't see it at all.

Sure I want Ultimate DX/2 worked on with the developmental timeline and resources of a true Smash 6 game but I also think there's plenty of good reasons to do it and various potential release models and expansions upon Ultimate that'd easily justify its creation. It's not simply just me wanting the project to exist; it also just makes sense from a creative perspective and business standpoint.

Sorrynotsorry but I just don't find what Sakurai felt compelled to say about Smash in circa Ultimate to be in any shape or form compelling today. It's just not relevant and I don't care. Plans change and thus priorities shift in response. It's perfectly reasonable to think that Nintendo considers Everyone is Here to be a foundational aspect to Ultimate's success. None of us know for certain but it's not unreasonable to speculate on.

Ultimate 2 would have a lot going for it in the potential department. I think "Everyone is STILL Here!!!" is an awesome tagline. I actually agree with the poster above stating that if anything Ultimate 2 being way too good is why Nintendo might not want it to be a reality. The expectation for veterans being in forever would not only be a developmental hurdle but a legal hurdle as well when the the 3rd party companies realize they have a lot more leverage than before with each having essentially a veto on Everyone is Here. I doubt it'd come to that though because it would spoil not only their relationship with Nintendo but also the opportunity to keep your franchise in the public eye in the most high-profile crossover ever.

Ultimate 2 could do a lot more with its cast that could be appealing and separate it from Ultimate 1 so I just think you guys aren't being imaginative enough. I've refined my moveset expansion ideas and it's another big effort post I wanna make soon but let's just keep it super simple and relevant to the topic at hand.

Give everyone a Back-Special and Shield-Special. Voila 2 new special moves for everyone and it's the set of moves that always showcases the cast's origins the most. Why would you wanna play Ultimate 1 anymore with less fun moves when you could play Ultimate 2 with more characters with more moves and more stages? There's also engine updates and updates on old moves in addition to new modes. All the missing stages and items potentially returning. There's plenty to do with an Ultimate 2. Hell even getting the netcode right is massive and is something Sakurai showed interest in during the talk with Harada back when.

I'm going to have a make an entire Smash Ultimate 2/DX effort post. I hate effort posts and I kind of suck at them too lol.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I still feel like they'd opt for keeping her projectile on neutral and just giving it the more standard QCF. Kikoken is traditionally a charge move, but I don't know how I'd feel about putting that on Back Special of all places.

Kikoken was a half-circle in 3rd Strike. They could do that for Smash, especially since I honestly expect her to pull a lot from that game anyway.

Also, any thoughts on Lightning Kicks being a rapid jab that also works in the air?

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

More than anything, I had already brought this up, but these are the latest words by Sakurai on a possible sequel:
"As for what comes next for the Super Smash Bros. series, even I'm not sure. I feel like we truly succeeded in making people happy with [Ultimate], but now that Smash Bros. has grown monstrous in size, I'd say that it's difficult to imagine an increase of this magnitude happening again. Every time, we've managed to make a game I had previously thought impossible, so I can't say for certain there won't be another, but I do think it would be difficult to push it further than we have."

To me the main takeaways from this are:
1. They know how much people love Ultimate specifically.
2. Maybe it's the translation but he implies pretty heavily that if there's another game, it would have to be bigger than the latest one.
3. He never says anything about scaling back, in fact he only talks about scaling up, as difficult as it would be.

I don't know. To me it reads like he won't do anything drastic, at the very least.

 

[fogbadge]

Yeah, he definitely has something against Chrom.

When you fail to make someone playable but basically pull out the red carpet for them in supplementary content (giving them a significant amount of screen time in marketing material and working them into a Final Smash while also adding in a cameo in Palutena's Guidance) and talk candidly about how some fans may be disappointed, only to then make them playable in the next game due to popular demand, it's obvious that you despise the character. Clearly there is no conflicting logic at play here.

That's definitely what someone does when they hate something.

you mean the significant amount of time spent on the ground and the paultena's guidance where they just make fun of him?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Let's also remember that the whole Chrom thing was meant to be a fun joke. Sakurai didn't actually realize overall till later that people took it the entirely wrong way. It's not surprising that not all jokes hit home like they're supposed to. Comedy is subjective. And it even made a brick joke, since "he got his chance someday" anyway.

But yes, Sakurai likes Chrom. He wouldn't make him playable in Ultimate nor consider him in the first place(before Robin) if he hated him. It doesn't make any sense at that point. It's missing the forest for the trees here. He doesn't hate on characters anyway. He's not some petty person. While he has biases, it's not about hatred. He's a lot more mature than that.

 

[fogbadge]

Let's also remember that the whole Chrom thing was meant to be a fun joke. Sakurai didn't actually realize overall till later that people took it the entirely wrong way. It's not surprising that not all jokes hit home like they're supposed to. Comedy is subjective. And it even made a brick joke, since "he got his chance someday" anyway.

But yes, Sakurai likes Chrom. He wouldn't make him playable in Ultimate nor consider him in the first place(before Robin) if he hated him. It doesn't make any sense at that point. It's missing the forest for the trees here. He doesn't hate on characters anyway. He's not some petty person. While he has biases, it's not about hatred. He's a lot more mature than that.

well it makes sense when you put it like that

 

[Perkilator]

Re: Chun-Li

I made my own moveset a while back inspired by this one.

 

[SpecterFlower]

The Mario Kart 8 thing? Mario Kart 8 DX was just a port. The Ultimate + I was describing would be more like what Ultimate was to Smash 4. Essentially an upgrade.
I don't know if that makes sense or not, but to me it feels more palatable than a scaled-back sequel with less stuff than what was in the latest game that you can still play on the same console
Unless they really actually reinvent everything, which to me doesn't feel particularly likely, but who knows.

Just a port that more than doubled the content

 

[Guynamednelson]

I can't see why a version of Ultimate with improved graphics, all DLC on-disc, more modes and a small bunch of new characters wouldn't be a success

It might, but updated rereleases aren't given the budgets for all that, typically. Realistically it'd just have the funds to relicense all the third-party characters and nothing else.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was a special case which didn't "double its content" on release either. It increased it, but it only exists because the Wii U did poorly in general. If it didn't, we'd have a normal 9. Instead, Mario Kart Tour became our 9 overall.

Deluxe actually did get more content way down the line to quite a big degree, but that was also because the Switch lasted very very long and they also could take assets very easily from Tour as well as make others. It still was a lot of work, but Smash requires more anyway. Moving a Course over isn't the same as moving a Character over. Much of that data also exists within other recent games that you can work with, including updated models, sometimes some data and retool it. Basically? Smash will require more work to recreate most characters from scratch(which was almost every veteran who wasn't in Smash 4 with possibly two exceptions, being Pichu and Young Link. They're a bit easier than some, but still required quite a bit of work due to outdated models, and blatantly new gameplay. They weren't an easy port either).

That, and Deluxe getting more stuff really wouldn't have happened if Tour wasn't ending its services. It's pretty lucky it got a big update when it did. If Tour lasted till the end of the Switch's lifespan, there'd be no reason for Deluxe to get content. It's there to milk the game a bit longer to get people to play a lot more since no new game is coming for quite a while, but also to get the most out of the NSO in general. It's purely business.

None of these can apply to Ultimate Deluxe, since it doesn't have another game to take assets from akin to Tour(which was also a mainline game, oddly enough. Yes, I do agree it's a bit odd it counts as one, but still). There's nothing to suggest we'd get a Gacha game either. And even then, it would've had to release a bit earlier to be notable enough to help. Coupled with how Smash and Mario Kart required a different kind of work to move assets over, and... they just will never be in a similar situation.

This doesn't mean a Deluxe is impossible. If the next console isn't backwards compatible, it could happen. It's rather unlikely, due to massive amounts of licensing, etc. The Switch also is still going to be around for a long time before retired, so that's another knock against it. Overall? It's not likely with all this in mind. That said, Ultimate will still be used heavily for its assets in many ways, so if it feels like a port? Welcome to every damn game where ported assets exist. We just have never had an actual Smash Updated Port either way(we've had VC releases, but that's about it). I mean, ignoring obviously different language/version releases, but you know what I mean by an Updated Port in this context. For another console(if not already pretty clear at this point, heh).

 

[TheQuester]

I think a Octopath rep would be my pick tbh, Tressa as a merchant character? Fun.

 

[Garteam]

They made some bank off the combo of Switch install base + Mario branding. That's basically it.

That does not in any way necessarily equal motivation to push a side character in a crossover that already has the most important Mario characters featured in SMRPG. Especially over someone from one of their own franchises that actually has to rely on its own characters to perform well, rather than Mario.

Maybe the success means they're interested in doing more Nintendo-exclusive Mario games, but who knows if those would even directly follow up the original SMRPG or feature Geno at all.

Ah yes, Square Enix, the company that famously never revisits or attempts to capitalize off of previously successful games or characters. It is completely within their modus operandi to not license an incredibly popular character and receive money in doing so.

The argument against Geno has always been "Square Enix is too uninvested for Nintendo to get the rights for a full playable character", but this is about the best case scenario that could realistically occur to mitigate that. All of Square Enix's other new releases are, at best, modest successes or, at worst, are actively losing money, including the nightmare scenario of Final Fantasy not being able to meet sales targets. Dragon Quest and Kingdom Hearts will still probably do well, but both Kingdom Hearts IV and Dragon Quest XII seem to be in a state of tumultous development. At the same time, Super Mario RPG not only got a new product, which itself was pretty unthinkable, but it did very well for a modern JRPG.

I also think breaking down Super Mario RPG Remake's success to the Mario brand and Geno to just being another Mario side character is very reductionist. Super Mario RPG Remake has outsold comparable Mario spinoffs like Mario Golf, Mario Strikers, Mario + Rabbids, and Mario & Sonic on the Switch. There's also a decent chance it has outsold Origami King by now. Geno's popularity has too much longevity to say he's just another pcik riding the success of a new Switch title. Geno would have died off in popularity a lot earlier than now if he was just a fad.

 

[TheQuester]

Ah yes, Square Enix, the company that famously never revisits or attempts to capitalize off of previously successful games or characters. It is completely within their modus operandi to not license an incredibly popular character and receive money in doing so.

The argument against Geno has always been "Square Enix is too uninvested for Nintendo to get the rights for a full playable character", but this is about the best case scenario that could realistically occur to mitigate that. All of Square Enix's other new releases are, at best, modest successes or, at worst, are actively losing money, including the nightmare scenario of Final Fantasy not being able to meet sales targets. Dragon Quest and Kingdom Hearts will still probably do well, but both Kingdom Hearts IV and Dragon Quest XII seem to be in a state of tumultous development. At the same time, Super Mario RPG not only got a new product, which itself was pretty unthinkable, but it did very well for a modern JRPG.

I also think breaking down Super Mario RPG Remake's success to the Mario brand and Geno to just being another Mario side character is very reductionist. Super Mario RPG Remake has outsold comparable Mario spinoffs like Mario Golf, Mario Strikers, Mario + Rabbids, and Mario & Sonic on the Switch. There's also a decent chance it has outsold Origami King by now. Geno's popularity has too much longevity to say he's just another pcik riding the success of a new Switch title. Geno would have died off in popularity a lot earlier than now if he was just a fad.

Geno is a long-time fan request since the pre-Brawl days with a recent game, he definitely has a decent chance, i'd say a good one even, he's not comparable to the rest of mario side characters like at all, Geno is tied to Smash speculation at this point, while characters like E. Gadd, Fawful, Mallow or Dimentio are not at all.
I'm not even an active Geno supporter (As in, i have never played the game), but he's a staple of smash speculation at this point like Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo were.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Just a port that more than doubled the content

After five years. Mario Kart 8 DX on release just had all the standard MK8 DLC and an improved battle mode maybe, iirc

 

[Opossum]

you mean the significant amount of time spent on the ground and the paultena's guidance where they just make fun of him?

Newsflash. If he hated a character they wouldn't be in at all since he's on record as having veto power. Hope that helps you see past your biases and realize that Sakurai doesn't hate your most wanted just because technical limitations made him get (rightfully tbh) outprioritized. <3

 

[fogbadge]

Newsflash. If he hated a character they wouldn't be in at all since he's on record as having veto power. Hope that helps you see past your biases and realize that Sakurai doesn't hate your most wanted just because technical limitations made him get (rightfully tbh) outprioritized. <3

verde already explained things

and in a much less confrontational manner

 

[Gengar84]

Are there any character archetypes you’d like to see more of (or any of, if not already represented) in Smash, whether from a gameplay, character or visual perspective? It could be something like wanting a samurai character, another monstrous character like Ridley, another ice element specialist, or another heavy grappler.