GothicSlenderman
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Dec 31, 2012
- Messages
- 343
With the Switch 2 coming we're also getting a new Mario Kart and most likely a new Smash Bros. But one thing I've considered is that I don't think the next Switch, Mario Kart or Smash Bros are going to sell as well as their predecessors. Now, of course, I'm not saying that won't sell well at all but rather that they most likely won't beat the same numbers as what came before. I'm sure the Switch 2 is going to do decently considering how popular the first console was and there's no doubt that the next Mario Kart and Smash will sell well considering that they're console sellers. But I'd like people to take a few things into consideration.
First is the Switch 2. The original Switch was able to sell monstrously well due to Nintendo's better marketing and how it innovated the way we play. Having a console/handheld hybrid really enticed the general market. But one thing to consider is that the first Switch came when there was nothing like it. But now there are several Switch like consoles available or coming up. The ROG Ally, Razer Edge and of course the Steam Deck. Keep in mind, just because the Switch sold well before they even existed doesn't mean that the console won't deal with competition later. Nintendo thought they owned the console market in the 80's until SEGA came out with the Genesis and let's not forget that Nintendo also indirectly created their biggest competitor, PlayStation. There's more options than ever. The Switch is also Nintendo's best selling system besides the DS. It has sold over 150 million units. It's the 3rd best selling video game console of all time. 1st being the PlayStation 2 with 160 Million and 2nd is the DS with 154 Million. And don't that because the Switch sold that well means that the Switch 2 must. The PlayStation 3 sold only a little over half of what the PS2 did with 87 million. And let's not forget how Nintendo went from the Wii with 101 million units to the Wii U with only a little over 13 million with that era being the most dangerous for the company. The year of Luigi was the time that Nintendo lost the most money they did in a long time. Ironic considering how successful SEGA's Fearless Year of Shadow was by comparison. But that's asides the point
The Steam Deck is also a major competitor as it not only has the backing of Steam's almost 2 decade old library. Not only this but many have figured out how to use emulators on the Steam Deck as well. To me it's not a coincidence that Nintendo made the Switch 2 backwards compatible. Which is great! But that does introduce one problem for both Mario Kart 9 and the next Smash I'll go over later.
Lastly Nintendo has been making a lot of decisions that have angered a lot of people. Abusing copyright, filing patents after potential competition came out as an attempt to sue them into submission, endorsing the KOSA bill and a history of trying to control the industry from attempting to monopolize it in the 80's. Gamers aren't really known for voting with their wallets and Microsoft, Sony and most other corporations are just as bad but it's still something to consider.
Next is the new Mario Kart. Mario is a console seller but I have a feeling that the next game won't sell as well as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. For starters by introducing backwards compatibility this means that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe can be played on the Switch 2. This is a game that has over a decade of support starting with its original version on the Wii U to it's most recent DLC. Many have invested a lot of time and money into 8 Deluxe. Most likely 9 won't have the same size roster or number of tracks that 8 ended with. And most of the general audience might not like the idea of paying $70 for a new game that has less content than what they already have. It seems shallow, I know, but that's how most of the general audience will think. Not only this but Deluxe only has sold over 70 million copies. It would be very hard for 9 to reach even half of those numbers. It will have to do something big to get people invested. It could be a "back to the basics" type of game where there's no kart transformations or gravity and it's just karts. It could experiment with the roster in ways that many would love to see such as bringing back old faces. Introduce alternate colors and costumes for all characters. Or bring back the Double Dash system as a customizable option like how Sonic Riders Crossworlds is bringing back the hoverboards from Riders.
Lastly is the new Smash Bros. This one is the most complicated as we don't even know if one is going to come out soon. Smash is a console seller and Nintendo knows that many will buy the new console just to play a new Smash. Heck that's why I got the Wii U what it first came out. But will it sell more than Ultimate? I kind of doubt it. Smash Ultimate is already the best selling fighting game of all time with over 35 million copies sold. That's a high number for a new installment to compete with.
But I'm sure a new Smash will come but it all depends on if Sakurai is involved or not. Nintendo has shown in the past that if Sakurai isn't involved that they will try to do something with Smash without him. Before Brawl started development he was asked about making a new game for the Wii but if he said no they would port Melee and add online functionality to it. That shows to me that the company is prepared to move on without him if they see fit.
And with it most likely being playable on the Switch 2 through backwards compatibility it shares a similar problem to Mario Kart 9. But I would argue to an even greater extent as Smash Ultimate did one thing that Mario Kart 8 didn't. Bring back everyone from the franchise into a single title. Plus with 2 waves of DLC including fan favorite picks like Banjo, Sephiroth, Steve and Sora who is the most requested character to be in Smash mind you. It does create an issue with the next game and it's potential roster. There is no way they'd do an Ultimate 2 considering that Sakurai has even said that the base version of Ultimate was a miracle. And I'm not sure how the legalities and copyright would go for a port or a deluxe edition. Not that it would work as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was able to thrive as the Switch didn't have backwards compatibility with the Wii U. But with the Switch 2 having backwards compatibility it would be pointless to make a deluxe edition for a game that people can already play on that console. It would probably easier just to add a support system that adds new content that's exclusive to the Switch 2's shop.
So porting it is out of the question. And making a Ultimate 2 is most likely is as well. So what can they do? Probably reboot the series? Either go back to being a Nintendo All-Stars game or make a new take with the idea of being a Gaming All-Stars straight from the beginning? Introduce a new gameplay mechanic? Regardless what the general cares about the most, as shallow as it may sound, is the roster. If people see that a $70 game has a smaller roster than Ultimate then they might pass on it and wait for modders to add the new characters to Ultimate.
Smash is in the most difficult position it's ever been in. And even though many may scoff at the idea, especially after Multiversus's massive failure, but platform fighters have grown a lot since the Switch came out. Rivals 2, NASB2, Combo Devils, Indie Pogo, Rushdown Revolt, Royatly Free-for-All and several other titles have been introduced. Brawlhalla itself is probably the most successful platform fighter that isn't Smash Bros. So regardless of whether or not people will like to admit it there are a lot more options than before. There's probably a lot of people who's first platform fighter wasn't even Smash at this point. When Gen Alpha grows up they might be more used to platform fighters being a genre than just Smash Bros.
Many have been more critical of Smash since then as well from not representing characters well, splitting the competitive and casual scenes to being associated with Nintendo and their bad faith decisions. Some might want to play something else. The community also has a bad reputation that needs to be addressed. Because I truly believe that bad experiences from the community can scare people off from the series they represent. Once again, it sounds silly, and it is, but we should take that into consideration as well.
Once again I'm not saying that any of these things will bomb by all means. Of course, I think they'll all do well! But do I honestly think that they'll beat the predecessor? Probably not but I could be wrong.
First is the Switch 2. The original Switch was able to sell monstrously well due to Nintendo's better marketing and how it innovated the way we play. Having a console/handheld hybrid really enticed the general market. But one thing to consider is that the first Switch came when there was nothing like it. But now there are several Switch like consoles available or coming up. The ROG Ally, Razer Edge and of course the Steam Deck. Keep in mind, just because the Switch sold well before they even existed doesn't mean that the console won't deal with competition later. Nintendo thought they owned the console market in the 80's until SEGA came out with the Genesis and let's not forget that Nintendo also indirectly created their biggest competitor, PlayStation. There's more options than ever. The Switch is also Nintendo's best selling system besides the DS. It has sold over 150 million units. It's the 3rd best selling video game console of all time. 1st being the PlayStation 2 with 160 Million and 2nd is the DS with 154 Million. And don't that because the Switch sold that well means that the Switch 2 must. The PlayStation 3 sold only a little over half of what the PS2 did with 87 million. And let's not forget how Nintendo went from the Wii with 101 million units to the Wii U with only a little over 13 million with that era being the most dangerous for the company. The year of Luigi was the time that Nintendo lost the most money they did in a long time. Ironic considering how successful SEGA's Fearless Year of Shadow was by comparison. But that's asides the point
The Steam Deck is also a major competitor as it not only has the backing of Steam's almost 2 decade old library. Not only this but many have figured out how to use emulators on the Steam Deck as well. To me it's not a coincidence that Nintendo made the Switch 2 backwards compatible. Which is great! But that does introduce one problem for both Mario Kart 9 and the next Smash I'll go over later.
Lastly Nintendo has been making a lot of decisions that have angered a lot of people. Abusing copyright, filing patents after potential competition came out as an attempt to sue them into submission, endorsing the KOSA bill and a history of trying to control the industry from attempting to monopolize it in the 80's. Gamers aren't really known for voting with their wallets and Microsoft, Sony and most other corporations are just as bad but it's still something to consider.
Next is the new Mario Kart. Mario is a console seller but I have a feeling that the next game won't sell as well as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. For starters by introducing backwards compatibility this means that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe can be played on the Switch 2. This is a game that has over a decade of support starting with its original version on the Wii U to it's most recent DLC. Many have invested a lot of time and money into 8 Deluxe. Most likely 9 won't have the same size roster or number of tracks that 8 ended with. And most of the general audience might not like the idea of paying $70 for a new game that has less content than what they already have. It seems shallow, I know, but that's how most of the general audience will think. Not only this but Deluxe only has sold over 70 million copies. It would be very hard for 9 to reach even half of those numbers. It will have to do something big to get people invested. It could be a "back to the basics" type of game where there's no kart transformations or gravity and it's just karts. It could experiment with the roster in ways that many would love to see such as bringing back old faces. Introduce alternate colors and costumes for all characters. Or bring back the Double Dash system as a customizable option like how Sonic Riders Crossworlds is bringing back the hoverboards from Riders.
Lastly is the new Smash Bros. This one is the most complicated as we don't even know if one is going to come out soon. Smash is a console seller and Nintendo knows that many will buy the new console just to play a new Smash. Heck that's why I got the Wii U what it first came out. But will it sell more than Ultimate? I kind of doubt it. Smash Ultimate is already the best selling fighting game of all time with over 35 million copies sold. That's a high number for a new installment to compete with.
But I'm sure a new Smash will come but it all depends on if Sakurai is involved or not. Nintendo has shown in the past that if Sakurai isn't involved that they will try to do something with Smash without him. Before Brawl started development he was asked about making a new game for the Wii but if he said no they would port Melee and add online functionality to it. That shows to me that the company is prepared to move on without him if they see fit.
And with it most likely being playable on the Switch 2 through backwards compatibility it shares a similar problem to Mario Kart 9. But I would argue to an even greater extent as Smash Ultimate did one thing that Mario Kart 8 didn't. Bring back everyone from the franchise into a single title. Plus with 2 waves of DLC including fan favorite picks like Banjo, Sephiroth, Steve and Sora who is the most requested character to be in Smash mind you. It does create an issue with the next game and it's potential roster. There is no way they'd do an Ultimate 2 considering that Sakurai has even said that the base version of Ultimate was a miracle. And I'm not sure how the legalities and copyright would go for a port or a deluxe edition. Not that it would work as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was able to thrive as the Switch didn't have backwards compatibility with the Wii U. But with the Switch 2 having backwards compatibility it would be pointless to make a deluxe edition for a game that people can already play on that console. It would probably easier just to add a support system that adds new content that's exclusive to the Switch 2's shop.
So porting it is out of the question. And making a Ultimate 2 is most likely is as well. So what can they do? Probably reboot the series? Either go back to being a Nintendo All-Stars game or make a new take with the idea of being a Gaming All-Stars straight from the beginning? Introduce a new gameplay mechanic? Regardless what the general cares about the most, as shallow as it may sound, is the roster. If people see that a $70 game has a smaller roster than Ultimate then they might pass on it and wait for modders to add the new characters to Ultimate.
Smash is in the most difficult position it's ever been in. And even though many may scoff at the idea, especially after Multiversus's massive failure, but platform fighters have grown a lot since the Switch came out. Rivals 2, NASB2, Combo Devils, Indie Pogo, Rushdown Revolt, Royatly Free-for-All and several other titles have been introduced. Brawlhalla itself is probably the most successful platform fighter that isn't Smash Bros. So regardless of whether or not people will like to admit it there are a lot more options than before. There's probably a lot of people who's first platform fighter wasn't even Smash at this point. When Gen Alpha grows up they might be more used to platform fighters being a genre than just Smash Bros.
Many have been more critical of Smash since then as well from not representing characters well, splitting the competitive and casual scenes to being associated with Nintendo and their bad faith decisions. Some might want to play something else. The community also has a bad reputation that needs to be addressed. Because I truly believe that bad experiences from the community can scare people off from the series they represent. Once again, it sounds silly, and it is, but we should take that into consideration as well.
Once again I'm not saying that any of these things will bomb by all means. Of course, I think they'll all do well! But do I honestly think that they'll beat the predecessor? Probably not but I could be wrong.