Every Smash game takes most of it's influence from the previous generation: the games that are already out when project planning starts. This leads to the likes of GameCube debuts in Brawl (Ike and Olimar), Wii debuts in Smash 4 (Wii Fit Trainer, Shulk, Rosalina, Wii design Little Mac) and logically, to Wii U debuts in Smash 5. Exceptions prove the rule; there's always special circumstances around characters like Roy, Greninja and Corrin that don't apply to the rest of the roster or how Smash's development pipeline generally works. When characters are added after the planning process, it results in delays like Sonic in Brawl.
But in Smash 5 speculation you see a lot of Switch-based speculation even though the game would've been in development before it was revealed, or before people knew about Arms, Xenoblade 2 etc. Even third-party hopes are based on games GETTING Switch releases sometimes announced in the same direct that Smash was! (Crash, Dark Souls, Skyrim, Doom to name a few). Considering how every Smash game up until now has worked, this doesn't make sense unless you assume Sakurai looked at every in-development game for newcomers, which is a huge assumption to make and a gross misunderstanding of just how Smash development has worked. Sakurai saying he liked Xenoblade 2 in December doesn't mean much when he started development a year before that in June!
Let's look at the newest elements to get in any Smash, for comparison. The exceptions that prove the rule.
For reference, I DO think that the likes of Rex/Pyra and Springman or some other Arms rep will make their way into Smash... but not at launch. The Switch has been pushing post-launch DLC and content pretty hard, so it'd make sense to announce new characters a year or so after launch to give the game more longetivity while promoting other releases on the console. But the focus with concurrently developed games getting into Smash 5 at launch is getting silly, honestly.
But in Smash 5 speculation you see a lot of Switch-based speculation even though the game would've been in development before it was revealed, or before people knew about Arms, Xenoblade 2 etc. Even third-party hopes are based on games GETTING Switch releases sometimes announced in the same direct that Smash was! (Crash, Dark Souls, Skyrim, Doom to name a few). Considering how every Smash game up until now has worked, this doesn't make sense unless you assume Sakurai looked at every in-development game for newcomers, which is a huge assumption to make and a gross misunderstanding of just how Smash development has worked. Sakurai saying he liked Xenoblade 2 in December doesn't mean much when he started development a year before that in June!
Let's look at the newest elements to get in any Smash, for comparison. The exceptions that prove the rule.
- Roy (Melee): A clone of Marth was always going to be in Melee. In the time it takes to make one clone, you could make 1/6th of a newcomer (Dedede was dropped to allow for more characters). When Sakurai looked at his potential picks for a Marth clone, he looked ahead instead of behind. Roy's personality in-game is also very different from Roy's personality in FE6, one of the dangers of including an unreleased character.
- Sonic: added late in Brawl's development, delaying the game yet again. Also note; Sonic is a third party, had a huge rivalry with Mario and is basically a big deal. Compare with Greninja. Sonic is a character worth delaying Smash for.
- Robin and Lucina: Awakening was out a month before project planning for Smash 4 started. Clones take less time to make, hence Lucina. While Chrom was considered during development, they settled on Robin with enough time left to implement him.
- Palutena and Dark Pit: Uprising was Sakurai's project before moving onto Smash 4. Again, clones take less time to make, hence Dark Pit.
- Bowser Jr: Was supposedly nearly cut, but the staff managed to pull through. Note that there's no mention of delaying the game to allow for more time for Bowser Jr; if he wasn't finished in time, he wouldn't be in at all. Contrast with Sonic (who was worth delaying the game for) and Greninja (who was important enough to be planned from the start with high priority).
- Greninja: Pokemon is literally Nintendo's biggest moneymaker, and The Pokemon Company's say is pretty important. He's also got an entirely original moveset; not a clone or last minute addition like Melee Roy, Smash 4 Lucina/Dark Pit. Sakurai still had to look at several different references for different potential Pokemon, decided on Greninja, brainstormed his moveset in a day and sent it to The Pokemon Company for feedback. Including a character like Greninja is a lot of work, not something done on a whim.
- Yoshi's Woolly World (stage): originally a Kirby's Epic Yarn stage that was modified to be Yoshi-based when that game was revealed. Compare modifying one yarn stage into another yarn stage with, say, picking a future character for a Marth clone over using an older character. When most of the work is already done and you just need to modify some basic elements, it's concievable you could promote an upcoming release without too much prior planning.
- Super Mario Maker (DLC stage): DLC stage based on the June release, available for download on September 30th.
- Corrin (DLC newcomer): DLC pipeline is very different, Fates would've been out since June and Corrin was revealed in December. Furthermore, the final DLC spot was designated to promote an upcoming Nintendo game.
- Breath of the Wild Link: This design's been around since 2015. BotW was originally a Wii U game for crying out loud!
- Inklings: All footage of them so far is based on Splatoon 1, a Wii U game.
For reference, I DO think that the likes of Rex/Pyra and Springman or some other Arms rep will make their way into Smash... but not at launch. The Switch has been pushing post-launch DLC and content pretty hard, so it'd make sense to announce new characters a year or so after launch to give the game more longetivity while promoting other releases on the console. But the focus with concurrently developed games getting into Smash 5 at launch is getting silly, honestly.
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