LOL thanks for your contribution Max
You're talking about player factors that are indepent of the characters actual zoning/spacing options. You're absolutely wrong about both of these things. A matchup ratio is determined assuming both players read each other roughly equally on an executionary and reactionary level. That's like saying "Oh if you read falco perfectly this matchup is easy". Of course it is, you're reading everything he does, which means you're simply outplaying your opponent.
You're theorycrafting a lot harder than I was, I was describing actual individual scenarios...That will only work if you're actually able to pressure the player behind the falco. If I run at him and he doesn't hit me? That's not a scenario. An actual likely scenario would look something more like this.
From a roughly neutral position with both characters on the ground. Falco is laser camping. Wario normally jumps in anticipation of falcos lasers but as a mix up he runs directly at falco to attempt to dash grab as Falco is rising during a SHLaser. A good falco player would already be adequately spaced from this point, so there's no way Wario should reach falco before the second laser comes out. If any of you have seen the latest metagame thingy you'll know that falco has frame advantage on powershield. So assuming that wario is even close enough after powershielding the laser to grab he's still at a statistical advantage to roll, grab, jab etc. Assuming he always chooses the safest possible option, rolling backwards or forwards he won't get hit. Now this isn't necessary but for the sake of my arguement of Wario having no viable way of damaging falco much he never has to resort to actual mix ups. Instead, Wario is more likely to get punished with a grab or jab that will beat out his shieldgrab.
I'll do a second by second anaylsis of a DEHF vs Fiction video when I get home. I can easily show that every time DEHF gets hit he had the option of getting hit whereas whenever Fiction gets hit it's usually forced.
