Try, Try Again - Second Chance Theory Discussion Thread

[zferolie]

Welp, the most likely benefactor of this theory just died. Oof.

Of course, nothing says the theory itself is dead. We might end up with a Steve situation again, where we don't know who was planned early on. Of course, it's possible that the second chances have run their course, and we're getting newer deals only from here on out.

Ehh, i feel monster hunter was never actually considered as a fighter, or if they were it was quickly shot down. I feel rathalos as a boss was planned as the only thing from the start

 

[SharkLord]

Ehh, i feel monster hunter was never actually considered as a fighter, or if they were it was quickly shot down. I feel rathalos as a boss was planned as the only thing from the start

I mean, it's not like we have any definitive leads anyways. All the characters we've talked about are just theorizing, without any hard evidence. Pyra (By extension of Rex) was the last character we knew was planned for base and wasn't ditched in favor of someone else; After that, it's all guesswork.

 

[zferolie]

I mean, it's not like we have any definitive leads anyways. All the characters we've talked about are just theorizing, without any hard evidence. Pyra (By extension of Rex) was the last character we knew was planned for base and wasn't ditched in favor of someone else; After that, it's all guesswork.

Indeed, which is why this is just a theory thread not a leak thread. I like theorys moore as it leads to good speculation and discussions, even if we are completely wrong

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

If we're talking possible wild cards going against the theory, a third installment for Blaster Master Zero was announced pretty recently and set to release in July, the month after E3 (the probable time when Smash stuff will get announced next).

To my knowledge, Inti Creates has yet to get anything in Ultimate, even though they're indie and have two established series (Gunvolt and Blaster Master Zero).

If tying into Gunvolt 3 doesn't work out and they go the retro route for a playable character, Jason Frudnick would work pretty well.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

If we're talking possible wild cards going against the theory, a third installment for Blaster Master Zero was announced pretty recently and set to release in July, the month after E3 (the probable time when Smash stuff will get announced next).

To my knowledge, Inti Creates has yet to get anything in Ultimate, even though they're indie and have two established series (Gunvolt and Blaster Master Zero).

If tying into Gunvolt 3 doesn't work out and they go the retro route for a playable character, Jason Frudnick would work pretty well.

Omg... I think I might add Gunvolt to my most wanted. I absolutely love Gunvolt and that would be a crazy dream come true

I previously expected a Mii or Spirit Event at maximum...

 

[SharkLord]

If we're talking possible wild cards going against the theory, a third installment for Blaster Master Zero was announced pretty recently and set to release in July, the month after E3 (the probable time when Smash stuff will get announced next).

To my knowledge, Inti Creates has yet to get anything in Ultimate, even though they're indie and have two established series (Gunvolt and Blaster Master Zero).

If tying into Gunvolt 3 doesn't work out and they go the retro route for a playable character, Jason Frudnick would work pretty well.

Not really sure that connects to Second Chance Theory. There's a lot of indies that don't have anything in Smash, and there's nothing regarding Inti in Smash either. That just sounds like general speculation to me.

 

[Guynamednelson]

It may have not been Heihachi, but Tekken is another game that has been given a second chance.

 

[zferolie]

It may have not been Heihachi, but Tekken is another game that has been given a second chance.

I think that counts

 

[Paraster]

I was worried about potentially succumbing to confirmation bias with Kazuya, claiming he falls into the theory when he doesn't, but if Sakurai did explicitly say he tried to get Tekken in the past, then Kazuya fits in pretty cleanly.

Just for reference, does anyone have a source for Sakurai's previous words on Tekken? I tried looking, but it's already been drowned out with articles on the new reveal.

 

[zferolie]

I was worried about potentially succumbing to confirmation bias with Kazuya, claiming he falls into the theory when he doesn't, but if Sakurai did explicitly say he tried to get Tekken in the past, then Kazuya fits in pretty cleanly.

Just for reference, does anyone have a source for Sakurai's previous words on Tekken? I tried looking, but it's already been drowned out with articles on the new reveal.

Here you go

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Min Min = ARMS content left out of Base game
Steve = Negotiation for 5 years, rumored to have been planned for Base game
Sephiroth = Cloud returning under the condition of Sephiroth being added
Pyra & Mythra = Xenoblade 2 content left out of Base Game

And now we have Kazuya. Remember how Heihachi was considered for Sm4sh? I think Kazuya fits this criteria.

Two other reasons I think Kazuya was also chosen is because he was the protagonist of the first Tekken game, and also probably has to do with something out of respect towards Heihachi's voice actor.

 

[SharkLord]

Sephiroth = Cloud returning under the condition of Sephiroth being added

Y'know, I don't think this was ever confirmed. As far as we know someone just said "Huh, what if..." and somewhere along the line everyone started rattling it off like it's fact

 

[CapitaineCrash]

This a copy of a message I've written in the general Rhythm heaven support thread. While this was about Chorus kids, I feel like the point about having more complex fighter was interesting enough to be posted here too and it's link to the second chance theory in a way:

"Something that I realised with pass 2 is that character were more complex for Sakurai and the team. Min min was hard to balance because of her range. The team had to program every stage for Steve. Pyra and Mythra were supposed to have Rex, but it was too hard for 8 player smash so Sakurai cut him. And Heihachi was considered for Smash 4, but Sakurai thought he would be too complex, but now we have Kazuya.

If Chorus kids was Cut from Smash 4 because some rhythm mechanics was too hard, now would be the time for Sakurai to try again. And it makes sense than he can do more complex fighters because with the DLC he can put the whole team on a single character."

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Characters worth keeping an eye on.

Ayumi Tachibana - Considered for Melee
BotW rep - More representation for The Legend of Zelda
Dixie Kong - Was planned for Brawl as a duo character with Diddy
Legends Pokemon Trainer - Amongst the starters being Decidueye or one of his previous evolutions
Mach Rider - Considered for Melee
Octoling - Most Splatoon content in Base game of Ultimate is from Splatoon 1 having only a few music tracks and spirits. Could be added as a means of more representation for Splatoon
Rayman - Based on trophy in Sm4sh could have likely been considered for Sm4sh
Rhythm Heaven rep - Scrapped from Sm4sh
Sonic rep - More representation for Sonic

 

[Gengar84]

My brother’s second most wanted character after the Battletoads technically fits with the second chance theory, Blastoise. Sakurai was originally considering Blastoise and Venusaur for Pokémon Trainer before deciding on Squirtle and Ivysaur. Unfortunately, I don’t really see it happening when we already have Pokémon Trainer with Squirtle but we do have both Pikachu and Pichu so anything is possible.

As far as a Koei-Tecmo character is concerned, Lu Bu is among my most wanted characters. I love the Warriors series and I feel like it has earned a place in Smash. Warriors has crossed over with four properties in Smash (Zelda, Fire Emblem, Dragon Quest, and Persona) so a character from the mainline series would be awesome to see with all of them in Smash.

 

[MattX20]

Ayumi Tachibana and the Chorus Kids are potential frontrunners or darkhorse picks for the final slot. They're definitely worth speculating on

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Characters worth keeping an eye on.

Ayumi Tachibana - Considered for Melee
BotW rep - More representation for The Legend of Zelda
Dixie Kong - Was planned for Brawl as a duo character with Diddy
Legends Pokemon Trainer - Amongst the starters being Decidueye or one of his previous evolutions
Mach Rider - Considered for Melee
Octoling - Most Splatoon content in Base game of Ultimate is from Splatoon 1 having only a few music tracks and spirits. Could be added as a means of more representation for Splatoon
Rayman - Based on trophy in Sm4sh could have likely been considered for Sm4sh
Rhythm Heaven rep - Scrapped from Sm4sh
Sonic rep - More representation for Sonic

I'm not too sure with some of them:
-Botw rep Octoling and Sonic rep: All of these franchise or game already have enough content. There's no evidence that something bigger was planned for them. Botw already have a stage, 5 music, some spirits (8 I think) and 3 mii costumes. Splatoon 2 alone already have 9 music and 7 spirits. Of course representation isn't perfect, but that's the case for pretty much every franchise in Smash. That doesn't mean that those characters have no chance, I feel like a Sonic rep is worth keeping an eye on, it's just that it doesn't really fit the theory.
-Rayman: I'm not sure if he was really ever considered, we know that the trophy is there because of Ubisoft gave Nintendo some assets.
-Ayumi: I'm not sure if she would be considered a second time considering that the translation of the remake was decided later in the development. I think the timing would be too late for Smash.
-Mach rider: Honestly not really sure how they would do a whole fighter pack with him. Retro character are harder to sell as dlc because sure you can give him a moveset and a stage, but literally every Mach rider music is already in the Mach rider medley, and there's really no potential for spirits aside from Mach rider themself (and he's already a spirit). Some other retro characters were considered in the past like Balloon fighter in Melee and Takamaru in Smash 4 and I think they all have the same problem.

For the rest, Decidueye would be worth keeping an eye on, but honestly I'd be shocked to see a second gen 7 Pokémon before a gen 8 (but to be fair gen 7 don't have a stage so who knows). Dixie could happen if they want to give Tropical freeze more content, but Sakurai seems to like to give very original concept to DLC characters so she would need to be different enough to Diddy. Maybe I'm biaised but I feel like of that list Rhythm heaven is the most likely. It has way less content than Sonic, botw or Splatoon 2 (having only 3 music and no spirits, with none of them from the last game Megamix) and it feels like there's way more potential for a big fighter pack than Mach rider.

 

[zferolie]

Characters worth keeping an eye on.

Ayumi Tachibana - Considered for Melee
BotW rep - More representation for The Legend of Zelda
Dixie Kong - Was planned for Brawl as a duo character with Diddy
Legends Pokemon Trainer - Amongst the starters being Decidueye or one of his previous evolutions
Mach Rider - Considered for Melee
Octoling - Most Splatoon content in Base game of Ultimate is from Splatoon 1 having only a few music tracks and spirits. Could be added as a means of more representation for Splatoon
Rayman - Based on trophy in Sm4sh could have likely been considered for Sm4sh
Rhythm Heaven rep - Scrapped from Sm4sh
Sonic rep - More representation for Sonic

I still stand by Shantae as someone that was considered for base but just given spirit and fighter icon status. Shes the only none playable character that doesnt have a playable character from her company that has a fighter icon, plus how her and risky boots spirits were at the very end of the data.

 

[MattX20]

This a copy of a message I've written in the general Rhythm heaven support thread. While this was about Chorus kids, I feel like the point about having more complex fighter was interesting enough to be posted here too and it's link to the second chance theory in a way:

"Something that I realised with pass 2 is that character were more complex for Sakurai and the team. Min min was hard to balance because of her range. The team had to program every stage for Steve. Pyra and Mythra were supposed to have Rex, but it was too hard for 8 player smash so Sakurai cut him. And Heihachi was considered for Smash 4, but Sakurai thought he would be too complex, but now we have Kazuya.

If Chorus kids was Cut from Smash 4 because some rhythm mechanics was too hard, now would be the time for Sakurai to try again. And it makes sense than he can do more complex fighters because with the DLC he can put the whole team on a single character."

That, or he could find an alternate way of doing this like having one Chorus Kid you control just like the mini game, but the other two Chorus kids show up for specific attacks.

 

[RileyXY1]

I still stand by Shantae as someone that was considered for base but just given spirit and fighter icon status. Shes the only none playable character that doesnt have a playable character from her company that has a fighter icon, plus how her and risky boots spirits were at the very end of the data.

Just an hour after this post she was confirmed to be a Deluxe Mii costume.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

At the end of the day, this theory was pretty much 100% correct.
-Min Min was considered for base game
-Steve was in negociation for 5 years, he was probably planned for Smash 4 or base game Ultimate
-Sephiroth was there to give FF7 more content
-Pyra/Mythra took Rex's spot who was considered for base game
-Kazuya took Heihachi spot who was considered for Smash 4
-Sora was probably planned for Smash 4 when they saw that he won the ballot.

Even if we didn't guess the right characters (like Ayumi or Chorus kids) the theory was still correct for every pass 2 fighters.

 

[SharkLord]

At the end of the day, this theory was pretty much 100% correct.
-Min Min was considered for base game
-Steve was in negociation for 5 years, he was probably planned for Smash 4 or base game Ultimate
-Sephiroth was there to give FF7 more content
-Pyra/Mythra took Rex's spot who was considered for base game
-Kazuya took Heihachi spot who was considered for Smash 4
-Sora was probably planned for Smash 4 when they saw that he won the ballot.

Even if we didn't guess the right characters (like Ayumi or Chorus kids) the theory was still correct for every pass 2 fighters.

Something of note is that even if the theory was right in hindsight, Steve and Sora fit the theory in a way that nobody could prove until their reveal. The theory was indeed correct, but the possibility of someone's exact predictions being 100% correct is pretty slim.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

More likely Sora may have been planned for Pass 1 but given the 6th slot and how it took a few seconds for it to appear after Pass 2 was announced indicates plans kind of fell through and Nintendo manage to work things out with Disney at the time of Pass 2.

Theory still fits in that case.

 

[Deleted member]

This is the only time in Smash speculation I’ve been right about anything and it wasn’t even for specifics. At least it helped put Steve, Pythra, and Sora on my radar prior to their reveals. Sephiroth and Kazuya were still out of left field tho.

 

[SharkLord]

This is the only time in Smash speculation I’ve been right about anything and it wasn’t even for specifics. At least it helped put Steve, Pythra, and Sora on my radar prior to their reveals. Sephiroth and Kazuya were still out of left field tho.

Pyra was the only character I ever guessed correctly during this cycle, and that's only by extension of how it was originally supposed to be Rex and Pyra before they realized the engine couldn't support it.

Yeah. Maybe it's because I didn't start seriously speculating until I joined SmashBoards just before Min Min was added, but I don't have the best track record with Ultimate.