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ZeRo and False got good FAST. Like, they were always good, but they improved and passed up the competition real damn quick.
Considering how many characters I've seen him play, I'd be surprised if Zero actually "mains" someone through the way. And I genuinely expect most of the top pros to have technology they haven't told anyone about, especially if it's for countering Diddy or Sheik.
:O
), so I can't rank him as high as I otherwise would have. Nonetheless, I think he's the only player who I'd be surprised to see losing to Choco, mainly because of his MU experience vs. NickRiddle and his character's innate strengths in the ZSS MU.
I actually appreciate this post a lot because I didn't know that about Choco and FOW! No Nakat though?My recklessly speculative list. Players aren't listed in order of expected placing, but are ordered based on perceived chance of winning the whole thing. Even the best players here have slim chances because the competition is so goddamn stacked.
Choco - I don't think a lot of American players realize how good this guy is. He was arguably the best ZSS at the very end of Brawl (by a wide margin) and he's placed top 3 at every single Smash 4 tourney he's entered (barring 5th at a single-elim. tourney where he lost to the 1st place finisher). I actually think he has the best chance of winning the entire tournament off of MU experience, if only because he has phenomenal Diddy practice from Rain, whereas American Diddies have Nairo's relatively-unpolished ZSS. Less-experienced Kongs (read: not Zero) will have no chance at scrubbing him out, so his extraordinary talent will likely carry him well into finals day.
Zero - Not really much to say here. IMO he's vastly favored against every single opponent except Choco (who will likely give him trouble, if not outright beat him). Because of his consistency, I think he has the best chance of anyone to make the top 8 (although Choco edges him out in the odds for the #1 spot due to MU experience factors).
ESAM - A disgustingly good player, who now has the luxury of maining a disgustingly good character. He's had some unexpected losses as of late (Zex, M2K, most of Pool B at the Clash Invitational
FOW - No one besides maybe Zero is working as hard as this guy. He barely enters any big tournaments, which makes it hard for me to gauge his exact abilities. Nonetheless, he has wins over ESAM and Ally and played a very close set vs. Zero. The amount of time he's put into the game ensures that he's unlikely to lose based on MU inexperience, which is certainly still a global issue at this point in the game's lifespan.
Mr-R - This guy has placed top 4 at two incredibly stacked invitationals. I'd be remiss not to put him on this list. I feel bad for not having him higher, which is not a function of his weaknesses, but only of a few other players' incredible strengths. He is easily the strongest Falcon and arguably the strongest Sheik in attendance.
Nairo - After a period of inconsistent placings, Nairo is looking incredibly threatening now that he has a ZSS and (thankfully) plays Robin less. At his best he can take anyone, but I think he has a much higher chance of getting "randomed out" than anyone above him on this list, which significantly hurts his chances of winning a tourney with 800+ entrants.
Ally - With Anti not in attendance, Ally is the plumber to look out for. With a major win and a top 8 invitational finish under his belt already, I'd be surprised not to see him do well. Realistically, I don't think he's favored against the first 3 names on this list, and he's already lost a close set to FOW. Nonetheless, I can't see him losing to "randoms" and I think he can easily beat all but a dozen or so players, so he's still got a (slim) shot at winning the whole thing.
Dabuz - Dabuz came out of the gate strong, but then fizzled out for awhile after Rosalina's nerfs and Diddy's ascendancy. Nonetheless, he's been placing really well again recently with the assistance of a pocket Olimar. Having a strong counterpick for Rosalina's bad MUs makes Dabuz a stronger contender than any of the lesser galaxy-dwellers, since she can still do work against characters that aren't Diddy or Pika.
I fully expect to be wrong on several picks, but I'm confident this list at least somewhat resembles what we'll see on Feb. 1st. I am very excited for Smash's EVO and can't wait to be (partially) proven wrong.
I see NAKAT getting top 16, but not top 8. He's a fantastic player, but his recent placings have been slightly worse when there was a lot on the line (i.e., 5th at Collision X and 17th at Final Battle). He is no longer the obvious pick for "best in NY/NJ," which is (IMO) a toss-up between Anti, Dabuz, and Nairo. I gave Dabuz and Nairo spots in my top 8, and Anti will not be attending APEX. I could be letting the past few weeks influence my predictions too much, but that's an understandable failure mode when we've got <2 months of tournament results with this version of the game.I actually appreciate this post a lot because I didn't know that about Choco and FOW! No Nakat though?
Reason I don't take a couple weeks of bad placings as him doing bad at Apex is because I've seen bigger things turn around. M2K has been placing terribly for a while in Melee and not doing great at all really. Then last night, he beat Leffen 3-1 and got 2nd at Paragon. Sometimes things happen in a row and it puts people down, but people like Nakat get right back up and decide to do good again. When Nakat pushes he does well, and I'm hoping that we see that at Apex.
Yeah pretty much. And oh, I know he likely won't win, but I'm cheering him on as one of my favorite Smashers. ^^ Same with Nairo and ZeRo, who I feel have a better chance overall.
Oh I don't think you should be expecting me to be top 16 at Apex, cause I'm not going since my character is banned lol.
I guess you haven't been following all my results along with Nairo's. Even the circumstances played under during final battle.
Pretty much agree I think we will definitely see some dark horses though, at least I hope! Btw any idea why Anti isn't competing in Apex? He's only been to one legit tournament but pretty much swept the competition against Dabuz, Nakat, Nairo, False. I think if he would've entered he would of been a force to reckon with for sure, best Mario and Luigi main I've seen and Sm4sh player in general, which is why I find it so unfortunate he's not playing.My recklessly speculative list. Players aren't listed in order of expected placing, but are ordered based on perceived chance of winning the whole thing. Even the best players here have slim chances because the competition is so goddamn stacked.
Choco - I don't think a lot of American players realize how good this guy is. He was arguably the best ZSS at the very end of Brawl (by a wide margin) and he's placed top 3 at every single Smash 4 tourney he's entered (barring 5th at a single-elim. tourney where he lost to the 1st place finisher). I actually think he has the best chance of winning the entire tournament off of MU experience, if only because he has phenomenal Diddy practice from Rain, whereas American Diddies have Nairo's relatively-unpolished ZSS. Less-experienced Kongs (read: not Zero) will have no chance at scrubbing him out, so his extraordinary talent will likely carry him well into finals day.
Zero - Not really much to say here. IMO he's vastly favored against every single opponent except Choco (who will likely give him trouble, if not outright beat him). Because of his consistency, I think he has the best chance of anyone to make the top 8 (although Choco edges him out in the odds for the #1 spot due to MU experience factors).
ESAM - A disgustingly good player, who now has the luxury of maining a disgustingly good character. He's had some unexpected losses as of late (Zex, M2K, most of Pool B at the Clash Invitational
FOW - No one besides maybe Zero is working as hard as this guy. He barely enters any big tournaments, which makes it hard for me to gauge his exact abilities. Nonetheless, he has wins over ESAM and Ally and played a very close set vs. Zero. The amount of time he's put into the game ensures that he's unlikely to lose based on MU inexperience, which is certainly still a global issue at this point in the game's lifespan.
Mr-R - This guy has placed top 4 at two incredibly stacked invitationals. I'd be remiss not to put him on this list. I feel bad for not having him higher, which is not a function of his weaknesses, but only of a few other players' incredible strengths. He is easily the strongest Falcon and arguably the strongest Sheik in attendance.
Nairo - After a period of inconsistent placings, Nairo is looking incredibly threatening now that he has a ZSS and (thankfully) plays Robin less. At his best he can take anyone, but I think he has a much higher chance of getting "randomed out" than anyone above him on this list, which significantly hurts his chances of winning a tourney with 800+ entrants.
Ally - With Anti not in attendance, Ally is the plumber to look out for. With a major win and a top 8 invitational finish under his belt already, I'd be surprised not to see him do well. Realistically, I don't think he's favored against the first 3 names on this list, and he's already lost a close set to FOW. Nonetheless, I can't see him losing to "randoms" and I think he can easily beat all but a dozen or so players, so he's still got a (slim) shot at winning the whole thing.
Dabuz - Dabuz came out of the gate strong, but then fizzled out for awhile after Rosalina's nerfs and Diddy's ascendancy. Nonetheless, he's been placing really well again recently with the assistance of a pocket Olimar. Having a strong counterpick for Rosalina's bad MUs makes Dabuz a stronger contender than any of the lesser galaxy-dwellers, since she can still do work against characters that aren't Diddy or Pika.
I fully expect to be wrong on several picks, but I'm confident this list at least somewhat resembles what we'll see on Feb. 1st. I am very excited for Smash's EVO and can't wait to be (partially) proven wrong.
