Tier List Evolution

[Slhoka]

As I mentioned in the tier list voting thread, I took a look at the previous lists while making the current one. I always thought that the evolution of this list is a strong indicator of the development of the competitive scene.

Therefore, I created this table and chart, as well as some little cute tables for each character like the one you can see in page 2 of the pdf file.

Now, I don't want to post it like that, without any additional comment : I think that one of the things explaining why the last tier list release was well received by the community is that the list was backed up with statistics and comments explaining the reasoning behind its creation. While this look on the tiers evolution isn't an opinion and doesn't need any argumentation, I think that a few notes would make it way more interesting for the users. And that's where I need your help : I am not knowledgeable enough to explain all the changes in the community that impacted the list. So I'd like to get input on this, especially from the old timers regarding the first lists.

Basically, I saw two main kind of things impacting the list :

• an evolution of the character's metagame which highly affected its performances
• a change in the overall metagame which profited to a certain character
• the rising of one or more top player(s) who pushed a character's metagame

Following the chart and the table in the document linked above, I tried to list explanations for the characters improvements or decreases in the lists :

Spoiler

Bowser : Always pretty bad.
CF : Low early ranking because he was thought to be too hard to control. Improved slowly at first (being "tamed" little by little), then abruptly in the 5th list (because of Isai ?).
DK : No idea for the low early ranking and the improvement in the 7th list.
Doc : Has been seen as really similar to Mario and pretty much followed him until the 7th list when it was clear he had his own metagame and was more efficient than Mario.
Falco : Early decrease (because of the developing chaingrabs and edgeguards ?), improvement in 2005 (metagame developed with the pillar and shine combos).
Fox : Always there, waiting for Sheik's limitations to kick in.
G&W : who ?
Ganon : Always seen as fairly good : his ranking seemed to be a consequences of the changes over and below him while he stayed the same.
Ice Climbers : Simple yet effective gameplay => good initial ranking. Gradual decrease as the limitations became obvious, then Chu arrived with the desynch and chain grabs.
Jiggs : Very low initial ranking, then sudden rise (because of the discovery of rest combos ?). Rose in 2008 (why ?), then in 2010 because of Mango and hungrybox.
Kirby : Always pretty bad.
Link : Good easrly ranking. My guess : popular character => played by many => gameplay developed faster at the beginning.
Luigi : no idea why so good at first
M2 : Crap until Taj's arrival.
Mario : simple gameplay + popular syndrome similar to Link = good early ranking, then went downhill
Marth : Simple and effective gameplay = good early ranking. Became a top character with Ken, reached the very top with M2K's 2007/2008 renewal of metagame. Lack of awesome Marth players may explain his decrease.
Ness : no idea why so good at the beginning
Peach : Not so good in the first list (why ?), then many good players arrived and developed her metagame (Peach players have always placed near the top while not reaching it).
Pichu : Crap
Pikachu : Popular syndrome may explain the good ranking in the first list before going down? Recent increase : Axe?
Roy : Roy syndrome : underrated a bit in the early lists because he was seen as the noob's character ? The rise in the 5th list would be Neo's influence, and then the lack of players may explain why he went down from there.
Samus : Popular syndrome ? The small rise in the 5th list would be due to the great Samuses (Wes, Oro, HugS, Aniki) ?
Sheik : Easy metagame => developed fast. Limitation kicked in in 2006 while the Fox/Falco metagame improved ?
YL : always somewhat lame
Yoshi : Little rise in 2003, because of Fumi ?
Zelda : Simple gameplay ==> high early ranking. Then, limitations became obvious (-13 ranks in 10 months, a new record !)

As you can see, these ideas are made a bit on the fly and are quite informal. That because I recently saw someone posting this thread and decided to hurry up. The experienced procrastinator in me wanted to take his time to do this, but with such a topic, it would be good to release it quickly.

So, could those who actually lived the early eras, or who have an idea on the whys of a character's evolution, please let me know.
Also, every proposition to make this more interesting is obviously welcome.

 

[Marc]

From what I remember, many of your assessments are right.

Broadly speaking the metagame gradually started to revolve around Fox and Falco as people uncovered more and more of their potential. In PAL we caught on a little earlier to their dominance because (apart from Sheik and more recently Armada's Peach) the spacies always placed well. In the US Marth sort of countered them until their metagame surpassed his. Human ability will probably cap before their ceiling is reached and with the amount of players pushing their metagame I can see a tier gap between them and the rest of the cast in the future. The last hurdles to take are character champions like Armada.

Jigglypuff took all major tournaments for a fairly long time and has only recently started losing again. I definitely wouldn't count her out yet, but it depends on mostly HBox to bounce back. Right now I still don't see any particularly bad MUs for her, except maybe Fox. I think she was considered bad for a long time because she's not easy to play at high levels and dies early, which in the current metagame is compensated for by her not really being combod by anyone and keeping her spacing safe.

Sheik being the best in NTSC for a while had to do a lot with her CGs and I believe there even was some ban talk way back because of her auto-beating a large part of the cast in that version. Recipherus is a name to mention in this context, I think Ken had to get past him to claim #1. CJ and Amsah really put her on the map for the PAL region, but she was already considered the best character in NTSC and could only go down from there. I actually don't really get why she was considered the best character in NTSC for so long (post-early CG bawwing) when there was a large span of time where she didn't do that much over there. She got hurt in recent times by doing poorly vs Jigglypuff (and Peach in the PAL version), but is still a contender to a certain extent for having reasonable MUs vs spacies and solidly beating most non-top tiers in both versions. Players like Amsah and M2K still do well with her.

Marth I think has been maxed out pretty much. He's always had a champion (Ken, M2K, Azen to a lesser extent), but he doesn't take tournaments anymore despite M2K being the best Marth by far and having done a ridiculous amount for the character's metagame. He can't really approach and can't keep himself nearly as safe as other top characters and in our region he quite honestly has never been that hot to begin with. America really piled up on the space animals and for a long time Marth had it relatively easy in that environment, which is the only reason I can explain a tier list position as high as #2 as recent as 2008. I enjoy watching the character a lot, so I'm hoping he will defy my expectations and make a comeback.

Peach is weird. While even like the thirtieth Fox in the world is good, I couldn't really tell you who the second Peach is after Armada. The gap between his performance and the next best Peach main is ridiculous and this is being reflected in the tier lists: she's #6 in both the US and Europe still... Armada barely impacted her placement, if at all. I can see her being grouped with Falcon and ICs if Armada gets worse, so I'm hoping he'll hang in there. Right now I'd say she might actually win vs Falco (which is huge), doesn't do that bad vs Jiggs and Marth, but Fox and NTSC Sheik should realistically win at an equal level. Still somewhat viable, but Slhoka is correct in saying she never takes anything apart from Armada.

I don't have a whole lot to say about everything after the top 6. Most of these characters didn't have major representation in Europe, so the Americans can probably chime in on them much better. It stands to reason that sudden rises can generally be subscribed to character champions such as Bum, Axe, Eddie/Kage, Isai, Chu, Taj etc. A few tidbits:
-Falcon has always been sort of there, but so have his weaknesses. He got caped by Mario in 2002 and his recovery is still almost as exploitable as it was back then. Very demanding in the technical/concistency department too, but in that respect he obviously improved a lot over the years.
-ICs are inconsistent (Nana >_>) and took a lot of research and technical prowess to get anywhere. For the longest time Chu was the only one with the technical skill AND the smarts to pull them off at a high level.
-Luigi is an easy character when it comes to combos and moving around and his biggest weakness (getting edge guarded/gimped) is something that took time to really get developed.
-Zelda also set some dropping records in Brawl. I guess her strength and simplicity made her appealing early on in both games, but she's simply not very mobile or versatile.

 

[Cactuar]

I'd rather see that thing with 1 at the top rather than the bottom, but thats really just an aesthetic thing.

 

[Druggedfox]

Don't forget that mango was already winning with puff in 2008

 

[Slhoka]

Don't forget that mango was already winning with puff in 2008

Alright. The tier list was released in october, and Pound was in february, so I guess it already played an important role.

I'd rather see that thing with 1 at the top rather than the bottom, but thats really just an aesthetic thing.

I know, but for some reason I havent been able to make it appear like that. Not yet, at least.

 

[Dr Peepee]

I can't speak for pre-Brawl, but post-Brawl Falco saw the rise of my, Zhu's, and Mango's Falcos, as well as consistent metagame advancements from Dashizwiz and Lambchops(both of which are much less active/arguably retired now). With so many different yet effective styles to learn from, it's easy for more Falcos to rise up and for the better ones to learn from one another, thus pushing his metagame even farther.

Falco also has that fun, creative, techy feel that a lot of players enjoy more these days than before. And obviously they love the combos haha.

 

[wWw Dazwa]

If I remember correctly, the issue with Zelda being placed so high was due to confusion. Some people were voting Sheik/Zelda as a single entity...and Sheik is pretty good.

I'm not sure where I read this though, maybe the SmashWiki page on it...

 

[DoH]

Yeah, Zelda and Sheik were considered one character on many lists.

Also, I feel like the assessment of Peach is a little misguided. She has pretty much always had representation in the top 5 of major tournaments from players like sastopher, vidjo, cort, and now armada, which is more than Sheik and Fox and now Marth can say I think. Peach even had the most representation at fc3 iirc.

As far as who the next best Peach players not named Armada, I feel it's between VanZ, MacD, and myself. We each have different strengths and pitfalls, but we are the most consistent and travelled.

 

[unknown522]

^ Vwins isn't in that list?

 

[DoH]

Uhhhh, only Americans count, duhhhh

Just kidding, I totally forgot about him since he disappears and then shows up to random NY tournaments and gets second lololol. My bad, he's ****!

 

[unknown522]

haha, fair enough.

It's a shame that he flopped for pound though.

 

[DoH]

But now I get to team with KK, so not so much from my point of view lololol

 

[SleepyK]

xif and mike g are still solid contenders

not as much as they used to, but if they keep playing me then 4 shore

 

[KishPrime]

Jigglypuff was never bad - she started in the middle and worked her way up. It was a combination of players who developed her game and the slow death of hard counter stages that helped to propel her. King was largely responsible for the 2008 jump. The other famous names - AOB and KillaOR - had quit Jigglypuff around 2006 and then King started pulling off Top 5 finishes at MLGs.

Peach was always considered good, at least that I can rememeber. I was about 6 months late to the scene, so maybe I missed something. There's always been someone taking Top 5 at national tournaments with her (Sastopher, Vidjo before Armada), and then everyone is surprised when the next person does it.

Sheik has some good players in the early days. Recipherus obivously made the name and shot her to the top of the list, and KishCubed and Azen were both winning tournaments in their regions with Sheik. No idea where any of those players could've take her if they hadn't all had early ends to their careers, at least with Sheik in Azen's case, but because of that there was much uncertainty about her actual potential.

Luigi was good because people didn't know how to space and edgeguard well, so his priority was killer.

 

[Marc]

My statements about Peach seem to be somewhat exaggerated for the US, but I honestly believe Marth, spacies and Jigglypuff dominated so much harder there over the course of time than she ever has (until Armada came around, that is). Top 5 at nationals simply isn't #1, which at least Marth and Jigglypuff have pulled off consistently. I guess in the comparison with space animals the sheer amount of people picking them up rather than Peach is somewhat misleading and people like Sastopher and Vidjo have definitely brought her places in the past, but she always seemed to fall somewhat short of making it big.

I remember her being the most represented character in the Japanese top 10 at some point, with like three or four people maining her. Only like one of them was a top 5 player though...

 

[DoH]

Peach is always a bridesmaid, never the bride

 

[Marc]

That pretty much sums it up. XD

 

[KishPrime]

While you're right about Peach never being number 1, Sastopher took 2nd to Ken at FC3, which meant that he bested everyone except for the top player in the history of Smash (or second, if you go Mango-style), and he beat Ken in a couple of other tournament matches. Vidjo tore his way to 4th at FC6, beating a bunch of people including PC Chris (if I recall correctly) then went splitsies and didn't care anymore, at least from the perspective of those who watched him play. I think got Top 5 at every FC but FC3, maybe 7th.

I'm not disagreeing with you, she was never considered top, but she was always considered just below that here. As you note, I think that Peach was an underplayed character through most of the game, and most people recognized that while evaluating her potential. Both Sas and Vidjo never traveled out of their region more than a handful of times. Wife was probably as known as any Peach during the height of Smash, but he was never a threat to Top 5 at national tournaments.

 

[g-regulate]

Fact : Sastopher was at day 1 of RoM3. I saw him with my own eyes.

yea Vidjo/Cort were the only real national contenders i can remember, Peach players sorta dropped off until the arrival of Armada, and no one is really even close to his level.

 

[AlphaZealot]

Yea, quite right G-reg. Armada made us US-Peach's look like amateurs. He was way more innovative than anything we had seen before with Peach.

 

[Slhoka]

Thank you for all these informations, guys.
I'm a little bit busy at the moment so I couldn't take time to gather it and include it to the final file, but I definitely appreciate your help. So far, discussion mostly focused on Peach, but if you think some of my original post's information on another character needs to be completed or corrected, please go on.
If you want to have a better view of each character's evolution, you can take a look at this file. Every character has its own graph ready (but the small tables are not on the right pages and don't have the right data yet.

And if you want to help even more and take part in the making of this small project, don't hesitate. There is some writing work to do for those who'd be interested in it.

 

[The Cape]

Mario continued to get worse because I am such garbage.

Fact.

 

[KevinM]

it is interesting to note that a lot of Peach and Jiggs rose up as the stage list got smaller.

Correlation vs Causation might have to be looked at there.