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Meta Tier List 1.0 Discussion & Moving Forward

Shaya

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So as I'm sure you're aware we've released our tier list but there was not as open a process as people were expecting at it's end. I'll apologize to all the earnest members for this, but with the 1.1.4 release date announced mere days before hand we had to expedite tallying and releasing the tier list.
This rush may beget the question of why have the project in the first place, but I would hope it was a fair inaugural ambition for this group and we made good ground despite the issues in my opinion. It was honestly less rocky than I expected!

We would be really interesting in hearing your take on the tier list result as a whole - as standard deviations were so high the likelihood is that your list is noticeably different to the averaged list we obtained~
I'm primarily concerned with placements and tier separations, not so much 'presentation' (e.g. the letters vs pluses and minuses - but still feel free to add on more with this).
What complaints have you heard from the public? Do you agree/disagree?
Have any questions yourself on anything tier list related at all?

And finally in terms of moving forward:
How long do you want to wait before starting v2?

Currently I feel that if we maintain the current votes and the format used (20-1) we can hopefully make the next iteration a bit seamless by having voters recommit their [modified] lists before a cutoff date and then re-tally.
Maintaining a discussion thread on characters and what we feel about the tier list project's aspects is the goal here.
My idea is to unlock the voting thread so people can modify them and when people do make changes bring them up for discussion in this thread. Would people be keen for this?

In terms of other things in the 4BR,
looking to introduce new members / start applications.
releasing a top 25 (?) top smash 4 players list [may need to be region locked or require NA travel?]
 
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Shaya

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Using the standard deviations as a possible conversation point, the characters towards the top of this table are ones which we should consider talking about to find a better consensus.

Kirby
Roy
Duck Hunt
Falco
Lucas
Brawler
Shulk

Were our most volatile.


Character | Standard Deviation | Average
Kirby | 3.388 | 9.1
Roy | 3.209 | 9.29
Duck Hunt Dog | 3.11 | 7.18
Falco | 3.026 | 8.12
Lucas | 2.993 | 8.65
Mii Brawler | 2.952 | 5.01
Shulk | 2.926 | 7.75
Robin | 2.722 | 10.17
King Dedede | 2.721 | 6.04
Wii Fit Trainer | 2.674 | 8.08
Bowser Jr. | 2.671 | 8.93
Mewtwo | 2.666 | 8.35
Bowser | 2.66 | 10.81
Greninja | 2.633 | 12.25
Little Mac | 2.633 | 7.18
Lucina | 2.547 | 5.59
Link | 2.474 | 7.47
Mr. Game & Watch | 2.47 | 8.72
Olimar | 2.452 | 12.47
Dr. Mario | 2.437 | 7.14
Ike | 2.425 | 12.12
Toon Link | 2.416 | 13.2
Pit | 2.308 | 13.88
Pac-Man | 2.278 | 11.29
Charizard | 2.255 | 4.79
Donkey Kong | 2.252 | 11.8
Marth | 2.237 | 7.72
Lucario | 2.224 | 12.92
R.O.B. | 2.221 | 13.63
Palutena | 2.199 | 4.78
Mega Man | 2.159 | 11.41
Mii Gunner | 2.153 | 3.6
Dark Pit | 2.138 | 13.89
Peach | 2.115 | 13.75
Mii Swordsman | 2.054 | 3.32
Jigglypuff | 2.035 | 2.79
Luigi | 1.996 | 14.27
Samus | 1.942 | 4.12
Wario | 1.898 | 13.56
Yoshi | 1.893 | 15.15
Captain Falcon | 1.767 | 15.16
Ganondorf | 1.675 | 3.23
Cloud | 1.657 | 16.5
Villager | 1.614 | 16.52
Ness | 1.502 | 16.39
Meta Knight | 1.489 | 17.12
Sonic | 1.269 | 17.83
Zelda | 1.259 | 1.96
Fox | 1.146 | 17.52
Mario | 1.108 | 17.51
Ryu | 1.103 | 17.95
Pikachu | 1.065 | 17.86
Diddy Kong | 0.998 | 17.43
Rosalina | 0.87 | 18.77
Zero Suit Samus | 0.708 | 19.46
Sheik | 0 | 20
 
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#HBC | Red Ryu

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I would say not even discussing it until we get closer to summer.

I am also Keen on your idea with unlocking he voting thread and discussing it.
 

False

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I don't think Ryu should've represented 4th/top of A tier. I think his MU spread isn't that consistent. Although he fares well against everyone, he has problems against characters that camp him (Yoshi, TL, Villager, etc.)

Metaknight would've been better suited to represent fourth, IMO.
 

Shaya

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So in the case that we had a highly contested grouping such as the one for A tier, would the ability to have a separate vote for their ordering be a good go between?

So for example

1. Meta Knight
2. Sonic
3. Ryu
4. Fox
5. Diddy Kong
6. Mario
7. Pikachu

Given that list of 7 characters are near equal?

Would/should we only do something like this for high tiers?
... Perhaps only if the standard deviations were low (which would exclude the otherwise close groupings of F/G/Low Tier
 
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Marc

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I honestly think it's bad practice to do another round of voting on certain groups if a vocal minority doesn't like where they ended up. Ideally, you convince people during voting with arguments, not after the fact. I also have qualms with voting on gaps and other things that logically follow from how people voted. Not even all voters have 4BR access.

I'm in favour of a system where people either reconfirm or alter their lists for each update, a votes database of sorts. We should also open up discussion again for each update cycle.

All in all I think the first Wii U tier list is the best out of any "first" tier list Smash has seen so far. We had a good amount of votes and all decisions can be justified even considering how chaotic the game has been with patches and the like.
 

Shaya

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When we're using a system which is generalizing placements for ease on voters and get a result of similar average with low standard deviation, I think clarifying that area would not be outside decent practice. The logistic issue of participants outside the BR is one of either extra workload or perhaps a benefit for in-house.

I do agree that we did very well for a first try, exceptionally well when considering the difficulties.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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People will disagree with the end result, I think top tier include A tier for what it is worth, but with how the voting works a lot of it is still giving our own voice.

Examples like Ryu being high because he was voted that highly by players.

That said, I would like to see the other thread opened so I could edit my list with thoughts on 1.1.4 as we progress.
 

Zigsta

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I think the biggest problem with the tier list voting this time around in general was the overall lack of discussion. Many people merely voted without really digging into their thoughts. I thought Thinkaman Thinkaman did a fantastic job of sparking conversation with many voters that really took the discussion to better places of understanding.

While this kind of discussion can be OK for a first tier list, there absolutely needs to be further discussion for future versions. The more discussion, the less variance between votes--at least in my mind.
 

Shaya

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So it's been a month since the tier list was released.
And also closing in on a month of Bayo/Corrin.

I had a check over the votes thread and only Lib and Foxy has tinkered with their lists; but if a few more people get on board I'd be happy to re-tally (or smaller sample size tally) for interest's sake.

Anyway, using the current tier list (rather than my previous vote, wouldn't be surprised if they came close in similarity though), I've redone my "20-1" with my current thoughts but mostly attempting to keep things to "similar spot", "moving up" and "moving down". Obviously mid tier downwards is still an awful mess.
It kinda hit me today that how are we ever going to have an accurate list when two similar viable characters have no way to distinguish between themselves and even in years gone how will it get much better when we have 50 characters to worry about, ughh.

20: :4sheik::4zss::rosalina:
[I think the order of S Tier is fine. Sheik may be more deserving of being on her lonesome comparatively in my eyes.]
19: :4metaknight::4cloud::4diddy::4bayonetta:
[seems to just be the most prominent power characters after top 3 right now]
18: :4fox::4ryu::4sonic:
[still feel like top tiers to me]
17: :4ness::4pikachu::4mario::4villagerf:
I think I'm being too generous with Pikachu, the length of time which we have correlated Pikachu's viability to ESAM is over the top; and his results beyond ESAM are non-existent. Him at 5th place has been one of the greatest consistent complaints about the list from a wider audience. I think it's fair we look for a more sane spot for him around the 15th placement or so if we're not otherwise finding more suitable characters ahead of him.
Mario seems a stronger character than the others but his results/popularity globally seem quite poor for a top tier to the extent I can't think of him as one.

Middle
C::4falcon::4yoshi:
D::4luigi::4darkpit::4pit::4peach::4rob::4wario2::4tlink::4lucario:
E::4olimar::4greninja::4myfriends::4dk::4megaman::4pacman::4bowser::4robinm:
16: :4falcon::4luigi::4tlink:
Luigi, and less so Falcon, are still proving popular and comparatively easier to still see as 'stronger' than some other characters.
Toon Link's recent buffs and generally improving results is outshining many of his D tier cohort.

15: :4corrin::4myfriends::4greninja::4lucario::4mewtwo::4yoshi::4rob:
There's a fair bit of uncertainty about many of them.
I may be underrating ROB a fair bit here, he could be in the 16 group going by still strong showings by the likes of 8bitman.
Yoshi is riding a long-term 'potential'/subjective view of his good numbers and he could be better than these or worse, it's a difficult quandary. Ike's recent buffs weren't insignificant and I do think the long-term good results at regional level are a sticking point to his 'closeness' to high tier.
Corrin is a seemingly stupid character who is in the shadow of Bayo [but not as stupid] who I think is roughly around Ike's power level at this stage.
The three stoogetwos - Mewtwo seems to be picking up in popularity and results, Lucario being much feared and is also sometimes in the spotlight. Greninja suddenly being above other notable regional heroes due to BEAST is feasibly bias, I do think he and the Pits may be the 'worst' out of this grouping.

14: :4darkpit::4pit::4dk::4robinf:
DK's polarizing capabilities make it difficult to ascertain whether he should be higher or lower, but as a secondary (or sometimes as a main) he can do very well, even against notable top tier mains.
Pits may be overrated (or slightly underrated), I think they're falling behind in the natural power creep we're seeing with characters which have not been touched for a long time in patches. I currently think Marth could be overall better than the two, but I'd like to let that settle in for longer.

13: :4marth::4peach::4wario2::4pacman::4megaman::4lucas::4olimar:
It may be steep to put Marth together with a few characters which while not always in the spot light, do have good results attested to them. Lucas is still surprisingly unpopular and I may be overrating him. This is one of those comparison things, "Pac/Mega/Oli sometimes do good things but they're easy to be off the radar and out of mind, here's a similar out of sight out of mind character I think can be good". I would be interested to see where Reflex realistically places Wario actually, I'm very likely underrating him by 2-3 groupings here.
Low
F::4feroy::4kirby::4bowserjr::4gaw::4lucas::4mewtwo::4falco::4wiifit:
G::4shulk::4marth::4link::4duckhunt::4littlemac::4drmario:

Bottom
H::4dedede::4lucina:
I::4miibrawl::4charizard::4palutena:
J::4samus::4miigun::4miisword::4ganondorf::4jigglypuff::4zelda:
12: :4feroy::4bowser::4wiifit:
I think Bowser being nerfed was a good thing for everyone in one way, while in another way I think "this could've been the hero we needed and deserved" for Bayo (may have been impossible match up anyway). He was roughly mid before with us not really knowing where he stood. At the least I don't think he's as strong as DK.
11: :4lucina::4littlemac::4kirby::4bowserjr:
It's around about now that I almost don't want to think about Lucina anymore in these things.
10: :4gaw::4duckhunt::4drmario::4charizard:
9: :4link::4palutena::4shulk:

8: :4miigun::4miisword::4samus:
7: :4zelda::4ganondorf::4dedede::4miibrawl:
6: :4jigglypuff:
 
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Fox Is Openly Deceptive

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I've been making small changes to my vote here and there ever since we've been able to, but there's one change in particular that I feel I should talk about, and that's Link. In my original vote I had Link up two characters (not number placements) compared to the final tier list; then following the release of the tier list a few things happened (such as Link continuing to get significant tournament results this far into the meta) that eventually convinced me that I may have underestimated him, which isn't surprising because he doesn't look that good on paper, and so atm on my vote he's up six more characters. That's significantly higher than where a lot of other people have placed him, and so I'd like to see if I can persuade you to consider moving him up yourself as part of my own defence for placing him where I have. Usually I write about Link's tech and flaws, so this should be interesting XD.

Let me just start by saying that you can safely forget most of what you know about Link from Brawl and pretty much everything you've been told about him in the competitive impressions thread. He functions as a very different character to his Brawl counterpart and everything I've ever read about him in the CI thread is wrong to some degree, except sometimes from Rizen.

What people who don't understand Link-theory tend to see is a character with sub-par mobility, slower than average moves, and a dysfunctional spam game, and so they write him off. What I'm here to tell you, among other things, is that either Link mains have found a way to make this kit work, or these bad attributes actually directly contribute towards his particular playstyle.

I can probably reduce the whole theory to a single sentence by simply saying that Link actually prefers versing rush-down over bait-and-punish playstyles. This may confuse some of you because it is typically believed that rush-down should directly counter Link, but where rush-down falls short is its predictability. Link isn't so incredibly slow that he can't deal with someone trying to get in his face, but he is laggy enough on whiff that making him unsure of whether you'll approach and be in-range or not will greatly hinder his willingness to throw out moves in anticipation of an approach.

Link thrives on making the opponent approach and making them run into his attacks, and unlike many sword characters he's got the tools to force this situation. In this sense, it's actually a good thing that there are holes in his spam-game. He wants the opponent to see an opening then go rushing in. What he has to counter their approach are huge disjoints, and I'll talk briefly about F-tilt and Grab in particular.

Link's F-tilt is one of those largely unknown super amazing attacks. It has slow start-up, yes, but the area of attack it covers is amazing, easily beating out aerial approaches and hitting deceptively far bellow stage. It does good damage (13%), is a great kill move, has low end-lag and good shield-push, and as a result is completely safe on shield. It's like a faster, better ranged version of MK's F-smash with much more active frames for catching rolls, -that obviously can't be charged and is connected to a less mobile character.

Link's Grab is pretty good for what it does. It has marginally less range than ZSS's since the buff with less start-up time. Due to his poor mobility however he won't be using it as an approach, and due to the still relatively slow start-up, it won't often be used OoS in retaliation to someone hitting his shield. Most of Link's grabs will come from reading approaches either by dashing forwards and grabbing their shield or retreating and doing a pivot grab. Once he gets a grab he has a range of guaranteed follow ups on all but 5 lucky characters http://smashboards.com/threads/link...found-in-the-op.379659/page-35#post-20457552; notable guaranteed follow-ups include U-smash, Aerial Up-B, and U-air, all of which do great damage and have killing potential.

Other notable mentions go out to Uair for lasting longer than airdodges and autocancelling out of a FH, U-smash for being a huge three hitting monster of a move that beats pretty much everything except shield, counters, and ranged disjoints from the side, and Link's fall speed to FF speed ratio which is amazing for a bunch of reasons i.e. every reason why you would ever FF made significantly more effective, such as used in conjunction with Uair and U-smash to do empty hops and bait responses. Suffice it to say, Link's trap game against landings is top-notch.

Most people will say that Link doesn't have a combo game, and for the most part that's true. I could mention D-tilt, Boomerang, Bomb, U-tilt, D-throw, and Bair as combo starters, but in general you'll just be seeing single hits. The reason why I mention this is because I want to talk about Link's advantaged state following one of those single hits, which is another thing a lot of people don't seem to understand.
Because of Link's range he thrives on an environment where he can predict not necessarily what the opponent will do, but simply where they'll be, because in most exchanges, so long as he can get within range and he spaces correctly, he'll beat them anyway or be able to return to neutral. [Note that most of the attacks he'll actually be using in neutral are all safe on shield (or are safe insofar as there is a mix-up) if spaced properly.] So when Link gets a hit and the opponent is e.g. in the air or off-stage or lying/teching on a platform, it becomes much easier for Link to predict where they'll be and space accordingly. The advantaged state for Link therefore isn't so much about being in their face and getting combos/strings as it is about abusing the fact that it becomes easier to read where the opponent will be. Because of this he doesn't need the fastest ground speed or the quickest attacks, he just needs to out-range the opponent's available options and continue to get those single hits, which he does very well.

Like most characters who do surprisingly well for some unexplainable reason (hint: rage may be a factor), Link is a heavy character who is able to recover consistently, thanks in no small part due to being able to e.g. throw projectiles to cover the ledge and stop/deter people from coming off-stage, FF airdodge tether for when they do jump up and go off-stage, throw Fair out which is a two hit meaty attack that can kill from the other side of the stage and has great range, and use two Up-special recoveries if necessary (which is guaranteed every time if he pulls a bomb immediately).

The results Link has been getting this far into the development of the meta, not so much at a national level in America, but pretty much everywhere else, just don't reflect that of a low tier character. Rizen has made posts about it before http://smashboards.com/threads/4br-...tive-impressions.429826/page-73#post-20920571 and there's also the tournament results thread on the Link boards for sources http://smashboards.com/threads/link-tournament-results-thread-25th-october.404196/.
The point I'll just make for now is that immediately following the release of the official tier list, we had:
Izaw placing 9th out of 87 http://smashboards.com/threads/link...read-25th-october.404196/page-5#post-20828527
Huggles placing 2nd out of 47 http://smashboards.com/threads/link...read-25th-october.404196/page-5#post-20847050
Seven placing 4th out of 68 http://smashboards.com/threads/link...read-25th-october.404196/page-5#post-20848130 then later 3rd out of 73 http://smashboards.com/threads/link...read-25th-october.404196/page-5#post-20908646
Izaw and Catana placing 4th and 5th respectively out of 128 http://smashboards.com/threads/link...read-25th-october.404196/page-5#post-20848183
Scizor placing 1st out of 68 http://smashboards.com/threads/link...read-25th-october.404196/page-5#post-20858118
Then at Beast VI we had Izaw placing 9th out of 267, and if Cat had gone there would have been another similar result for Link at this tournament https://smash.gg/tournament/beast-6/brackets/10660/10838/38057
The likes of Unknown, Hyrule Hero and Requiem are also well worth mentioning, all getting consistently great results; it's just that I deliberately restricted myself to tournament results occurring immediately after the release of the tier list.
These kinds of results have been steadily coming in since the release of the game and have, if anything, been getting better with recent patches. (E.g. the recent Fair buff that allows us to kill confirm out of Bombs now or just flat-out destroy stocks with Fair; also the damage buff incidentally made it even safer on shield when landing.)

These aren't the results of a low tier character. I've tried to explain the theory behind how this is possible, how it is that a character that looks bad on paper can get these results this far into the development of the meta.
Anyone who put Link in their bottom 10 needs to reevaluate his placement. Anyone who put him in their bottom 15 might want to consider giving him a boost. I've placed him higher still based on what I know and what I've seen, but in the end it's your call. I just gave up on trying to ignore what was right in front of me and trying to insist that it was just a matter of time and then people would realise how bad Link was; over time I was forced to see him in a different light, and now I'm finally simply giving him credit where credit is due.
 
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Gunla

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There's a few changes in my list right now and other things I need to review. Link and Bowser are probably the biggest things I am looking into because Bowser's lost traction and Link is performing well. I'm probably going to overhaul my list when I get some time.

Another great thing to note, the Quetzle Smash Apps Tier List Maker received an update rather recently with all characters (and a nice visual overhaul) some time back, and it's excellent. If you want to construct your list, you can make it there (and if you have cookies enabled and don't reset it, it even saves it for you until you reset the entire list.)
 

Zigsta

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For what it's worth, I think Bowser could potentially slide a bit the next tier list vote. While I don't think his nerf really hurt him that much, he'll honestly only go down the longer people figure out how to exploit him. If your two worst MUs are the two best characters in the game, you're gonna have a bad time.

However, he's still certainly a mid tier. He doesn't have a lot of rep, just like in Brawl, which can make placing Bowser difficult, particularly for those without a lot of Bowser practice. He has a very different playstyle, and frankly anyone who wants to actually win should just flat out play a better character. Look at Le Troof: Known for placing high with Bowser at VG Bootcamp locals, but never winning. Now he's placing even higher with a very new Bayonetta.

A lot of people flocked to Bowser after the SDCC 3DS tournament (as I predicted and feared) because they thought he was the best in the game, as opposed to him being the best in a tournament where the first two rounds were FFAs and no one was used to shielding because 3DS controller johns. The more these players continued to play Bowser on Wii U, the more and more people dropped him--and you can see the results in the character usage section on Smashboards.

The most frustrating thing about it all is the notable Bowsers, should they attend large tournaments, almost always get bopped by some really, really bad MUs in pools and make little to no noise whatsoever. Because, also like Brawl, Bowser does very solidly against a lot of the cast but loses hard to both much better characters as well as characters placed lower on the tier list (looking at you, D3!!!!!). His hardest MUs still aren't nearly as mindblowingly frustrating as his hardest were in Brawl (ICs, D3, MK), but they still require a very, very particular playstyle that will take a very long time to learn how to efficiently play. I wish I had more time to attend tournaments regularly so I had tangible proof of this, but for now it's really just my word against proof of Bowsers the world over getting bopped. :(

#Bowser4STierInSmash5
 

CHOMPY

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As a Pit player, I would agree with Shaya Shaya that the angels deserve to drop down a few spots on the tier list. Due to the lack of players that once represented Pit have now shy away. For example, Pink Fresh dropped Pit for Bayonetta. I haven't been in the scene for two months. KiraFlax is a great Pit player, but has a hard time keeping up with the Power Ranked members, meaning Pit doesn't stand out in the SoCal scene. About the only one who really represents Pit right now is Earth, and he's from Japan, which has a very different meta in comparison to other countries. Even with Earth maining Pit, he has Fox to count on for bad MUs. Dark Pit/Pit is a character than easily win you locals, maybe a regional, but definitely not a national, due to the amount of players out there who use the top tiers and thats when it becomes an uphill climb for the angels.

Character wise, Pit has great early game combo tools, disjointed hitboxes, can gimp peoples offstage with arrows, dair, fair, god like recovery, and creative ways to get the kills (if you can space the multi hitbox moves properly). From one of the more recent patch, Dark Pit has recieved the side B buff to kill insanely early, but at the same time you can see it coming from a mile away, very punisable, and it doesn't kill in the center part of the stage. However, if your feeling gutsy, you can bait them to airdodge and hit them with your side B offstage for an early kill. If you whiff, there goes your stock. For a while, I felt the patient Pit was the way to go, but as the meta progresses, people are slowly starting to figure him out and know how to get around Pit's disjointed hitboxes. The biggest drawback Pit has are his MUs, especially against Sheik, ZSS, Metaknight, and many others with quicker frame data that shut down Pit, due to having slower frame data along with bad air speed. There are tools that characters have that Pit would love to have in his disposal to move him higher. Unfortunately, you'l have to work with the tools you have. Overall, it feels right to see Dark Pit/Pit remain in the mid-mid high tier section.
 
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M@v

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Posting see what people think our next move should be regarding a list...It's been shown patches are unpredictable....maybe we could make a set schedule? IE once or twice a year release a tier list in the same month or so, regardless of patch. That way people have a heads up its coming, and realize that it could happen before a new patch or directly after. There's no real perfect way to do this sadly, unless we made tier lists for EVERY patch, which would take too much time and coordination.
 

Gunla

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Posting see what people think our next move should be regarding a list...It's been shown patches are unpredictable....maybe we could make a set schedule? IE once or twice a year release a tier list in the same month or so, regardless of patch. That way people have a heads up its coming, and realize that it could happen before a new patch or directly after. There's no real perfect way to do this sadly, unless we made tier lists for EVERY patch, which would take too much time and coordination.
Right now, the plan is for updating sometime this summer (August? That'd mean we probably start working on it in late June/early July).

Right now the patches have completely stopped and aren't on the past schedule of once a month. I'm beginning to assume that if we don't get a patch this month, we won't again.

I think we'll update the list once more for August, and we could perhaps keep an "update every 6 months" schedule of February/August.
 

Xiivi

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I think we should look towards tournaments and figure out which one we want to be the last one that will effect voting.

The two big ones slated for August are SuperSmashCon (2nd weekend) and Shine (4th weekend).
 

Gunla

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Well, at least we aren't doing a Tier List...

But seriously this is kinda a bad time for a patch imo, right before a ton of huge tournaments (CEO, Apex, SNS, etc)
 

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Right now the patches have completely stopped and aren't on the past schedule of once a month. I'm beginning to assume that if we don't get a patch this month, we won't again.
Nintendo strikes again!

I think we'll update the list once more for August, and we could perhaps keep an "update every 6 months" schedule of February/August.
Honestly I feel like we should update it every 2 months or something which may be quite frequent but it is the only way to keep up with the patches. Our last tier list is from version v1.1.3, before the patch where Bayo/Corrin got included...
 
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M@v

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Looks like I took my month off from practicing at the right time. I'm coming back right as the new patch comes out, and I get a month with it before the summer tournament season.
 

M@v

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Bayonetta was the only one touched this patch. That's strong evidence Nintendo is trying to be/is done patching the game imo.
 
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CHOMPY

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The fact that we are not getting any new characters anytime soon and this last patch pretty much tells us that the rest of the cast are set in stone. Now its just a matter of trying to gather all of the tournament results, character usage, MU spreads, and how viable these characters actually are in the current meta.
 

John12346

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Voting for the next Tier List is going to be veryyy interesting. In previous Smash titles - 64, Melee, Brawl, and 4 before Sheik and then Bayonetta got nerfed - it's always been VERY clear who the best character in the game was. But with Smash 4 the way it is now, it's going to be most interesting to have multiple people try to answer this question:

Who is the best character in the game right now?

I believe that post-patch Smash 4 is the first Smash game in history where the answer to that question is not clear cut. Between Diddy, Sheik, ZSS, Rosalina, Cloud, Ryu, and perhaps some sleeper hits I'm not considering, it seems like it's going to be quite challenging to answer that question properly.

And I love it, because it really speaks to the balance that this game has right now. The metagame is looking more lively than ever.
 
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M@v

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I believe there's 19 (maybe 20 depending how nerfed Bayonetta pans out here) characters that have the potential to win a national solo, and another 12 who can potentially top 8 a national solo. And that's not even getting into if someone uses 2 characters.

So yeah, smash 4 is easily the most balanced smash game; I even thought that in its earlier versions too. Its only gotten better.
 

Thinkaman

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I'm of the opinion that 1.1.6 was the tipping point for patches in terms of convergence. Even if there are further patches (which I doubt), given previous trends I would not expect them to have a warping effect on the meta. I would bet on pretty stacked odds that no further patch has the impact of any previous major patch, including even 1.1.6.

For the first time nothing is holding us back from making a robust, well-informed tier-list that would have long-term significance. (At worst, Bayo will be somewhat hard to accurately place.) Sure, we could always wait for the tourneys over the next three months, but you can always say that.

I'm in favor of updating the list as soon as possible. The initial list was a beta, and it's time for the 1.0.
 

NickRiddle

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I completely forgot about SWF for a couple of weeks.
I'd be down for a tier list...
Might skew ZSS's placement a bit though.
 

M@v

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As Thinkaman Thinkaman said, the signs are pretty strong that the balance patches are winding down, if not done completely. If there was more major balance patches inbound, we would of seen some sign of it in 1.1.6. But it was all Bayonetta. No one else was touched. The only way another balance patch is inbound is if either A. They spent all of their time getting a bayonetta "hotfix" patch out there and ignored every one else, or B. Some other character is found to be really broken somehow and starts dominating.

With A, I dont buy it. If they were putting everything else on hold trying to nerf bayo, 1.1.6 would of been out a lot quicker imo. And I also find it hard to believe they wouldn't have put even minor changes to other characters. Minor changes wouldn't take that long to code/fix. It would be worth holding a patch off for a couple more days to include the,

With B, I just can't see that happening. Yes, our meta is still young, but we've gotten to the point that there are no broken strategies with anyone. The only thing I could see happening is some really dumb glitch being discovered, and Nintendo would likely patch just that glitch.
 

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A wild chart appears:



Edit: Note that this is a limited sample, and there is some blind spots as "results" does indicate attendance of major (100+) events while raw character popularity includes all events. For example, it just so happens that in this sample period essentially no WFT mains attended large events, so that character is listed as having zero results despite decent usage. In reality, we see in Smashboards event data that WFT actually performed significantly above her popularity level overall, thanks to WFT mains happening to attend smaller events in this time.
 
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Thinkaman

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Mini-rant:

People often are quick to dismiss popularity when evaluating tiers. This is a common but massive mistake.

To see why, let's look at the opposite mistake that people often make along side this: obsessing over win-rates.

If you were to make a Melee tier list based solely on win-rates from available competitive play data, it would probably start like this, as most Melee netplay data has in the past:
  1. :zeldamelee:
  2. :samusmelee:
  3. :drmario:
What the hell? Why are these characters at the top?

Because the only players playing them competitively are a very small player-base that happens to be demographically inclined to perform well. In Smash 4, any tier list based exclusively on tournament win-rate would currently have Duck Hunt as the game's best character.

In truth, the fact that :foxmelee::falcomelee::marthmelee::sheikmelee: have a bazillion times more players is a far stronger indicator of their dominance than any other measure available. For Melee, just as countless other competitive games in history, nothing correlates more tightly with character strength than total competitive usage.


Let's consider results, which I'll remind you is win-rate times popularity. We still face the same underlying question. Suppose we have a large tournament whose top 4 looked like this:
  1. :4dedede:
  2. :4sheik:
  3. :4sheik:
  4. :4sheik:
If someone were to ask who the best character in the game is based on this single set of results, smart money would be on Sheik, not DDD. Which is more likely: That all 3 of those Sheik players are really stupid, playing an inferior character, and all 3 happened to still managed to beat the entire rest of the bracket? Or that this one DDD player is just a freakishly good (and possibly lucky) player?

We'd all agree with the latter. It's just intuitive. The train of thought goes: "Results don't follow good characters. Results follow good players, and that all players (good and bad) over time gravitate towards good characters."

If we were to truly believe that results are literally all that matter to character strength, we would have no desire to weight results or combine them. We would be forced to assume that Yoshi is actually really good in Melee, and that there's nothing special about aSMa as a player. We would have accepted that Mewtwo was the new best character in Smash 4 since the day Pound 2016 ended; it would literally be beyond debate.


The reality is, results and usage are stuck in a feedback loop. They are both half-flawed, half-truthful indicators of character strength, and it is absolutely critical that anyone trying to discuss comparative character strength understand that both are key data and neither is valid in isolation without the other.

It is up to us to use our experience, intuition, and perspectives as top players and community leaders to navigate this never-ending dichotomy and interpret the data we have accurately.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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My personal list WIP I made this week, but I am trying to move character's around using Thinkaman Thinkaman 's list, the power rankling thread information Chompy posted, and other information posted around.

Kind of trying to figure out glaring problems here and there while also working on getting feedback on this.
 

Thinkaman

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My personal list WIP I made this week, but I am trying to move character's around using Thinkaman Thinkaman 's list, the power rankling thread information Chompy posted, and other information posted around.

Kind of trying to figure out glaring problems here and there while also working on getting feedback on this.
That placing of Little Mac is just not in sync with the results we are seeing. He is literally performing in the top third of the roster. I don't think this trend of increasing Mac results will continue into the stratosphere, but it is an upward trend, and it would be very unwise of us to pretend that anyone pulling this level of results is a poor character. Modern stage trends, like removal of Duck Hunt, greatly boost his viability.

Lucas and Bowser are also out-performing any of the characters on their level. Also, I think Palutena sucks, but even I can't ignore that Palutena players are outperforming over a third of the roster.

Meanwhile, Roy is as irrelevant as it gets. Roy as good as Lucas and Bowser? The entire Roy community must have missed the memo... (Or their opponents...)

Elephant in the room: When is the last time a Charizard did anything of competitive relevance?

Unlike say, Dr. Mario, who was used to win Loser's Finals 3-0 at MLG World Finals, enabling Nairo to ultimately win his first national against Zero?

(Note: Most of the list is fine, but there's always lots of pick on when you have 58 characters.)
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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That placing of Little Mac is just not in sync with the results we are seeing. He is literally performing in the top third of the roster. I don't think this trend of increasing Mac results will continue into the stratosphere, but it is an upward trend, and it would be very unwise of us to pretend that anyone pulling this level of results is a poor character. Modern stage trends, like removal of Duck Hunt, greatly boost his viability.

Lucas and Bowser are also out-performing any of the characters on their level. Also, I think Palutena sucks, but even I can't ignore that Palutena players are outperforming over a third of the roster.

Meanwhile, Roy is as irrelevant as it gets. Roy as good as Lucas and Bowser? The entire Roy community must have missed the memo... (Or their opponents...)

Elephant in the room: When is the last time a Charizard did anything of competitive relevance?

Unlike say, Dr. Mario, who was used to win Loser's Finals 3-0 at MLG World Finals, enabling Nairo to ultimately win his first national against Zero?

(Note: Most of the list is fine, but there's always lots of pick on when you have 58 characters.)
Thought about a lot of this while working on it.

Lil'Mac I agree, something that honestly surprised me. He is actually performing really dang well on all of the sources I looked up two of which are here. I thought his weakness was crippling but results do not reflect my thoughts. Yeah I gotta move him up.

Lucas, I would need sources, I don't see much from him. Bowser on the other hand, yeah recent results I am seeing more Bowser doing well.

Charizard is my personal problem, I do not think he is that bad and honestly mid tier, but results and stuff I looked up do not match this. As such, I think it would be better to move him down on my list.

Roy, I'll move down, another personal thought from me.

Dr. Mario, I seriously need to question though. Outside of Nairo when has that character done something or been used a lot? Now this is an issue I call the clone problem with him, Lucina and Dark Pit where I do not think usage dictates how good or bad they are because public stigma clouds how good or bad they are, mostly Lucina and Dr. Mario. Despite this, idk how far I could raise him on my list off that alone. Because the chart you posted and other sources don't support me raising him that much higher outside if I did a lot of personal thoughts on it.
 

Alphicans

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I would think that after EVO would be a good time to start discussing a new tier list.

In response to the above ^ tier list, I think doc is criminally low. The character is actually incredibly solid, just why play doc when you could play mario? That's why you never really see him, but the character is a solid mid tier for sure. Like at least at the top of D tier on your list, if not mid C tier.
 

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Whether or not we change completion dates for a later time is a different discussion, but, we have decided to open the doors for V2 now~

We will also be starting new membership applications, there will likely be current member feedback, so look forward to it.
 
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