Theory: DLC was planned from the start

[WiiRool]

A lot of people have been left with disappointment from the last character reveals. No surprise for the Grinch leak had set a high bar.
If you're one of those people you might think that some more popular characters are missing. These characters probably got a lot of votes on the Smash Ballot and you feel like they should have been prioritized.

However, I think that these characters have definitely been acknowledged but were likely not included due to the costs of their rights. I'm thinking of characters like Banjo, Geno and Rayman.
The only third party characters that were added this time around were Simon, Richter and Ken. That's one new franchise and one that was already represented. However, combined with all the returning third party characters - and al the stages and music that come with them - there is still a massive amount of third party representation. This by itself probably made Smash Ultimate a very costly project. Simon was likely picked from the Ballot because of the possibility of an Echo Fighter in Richter. Ryu and Ken make a similar story.

So here's my theory. Most of the DLC characters, stages and music will likely come from third parties. Because, of course, we all have to pay for this content separate from the base game, it will save Nintendo a lot of money when paying for all of the rights. And here's what makes me think that this was all planned from the start:

As mentioned in the Direct, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 was announced after planning for Smash Ultimate was finished. So no representation from that game was planned. But that didn't stop Sakurai, for somewhere along the line of development he gave us a Mii Costume of Rex as well as some music. But why not DLC? This only makes sense when you consider that DLC was also planned before the announcement of Xenoblade Chronicles 2.

Conclusion: The top of the Smash Ballot's results likely consists of mostly third party characters. To save money on the rights of these characters, they are not in the base game but included as DLC.

To all the people who say that Smash Ultimate is a disappointing game: Excuse me?!!
Please, don't forget all the amazing content that was announced before this Direct! Also, if this theory holds, we are probably looking at some fantastic DLC!

 

[Kevandre]

I agree. At least, I agree in regards to characters like Banjo whose owners haven't been in the game already. Geno makes a little less sense for me, since we already have someone from Square and that he's kind of obscure. I think a lot more people would be inclined to buy someone like Incineroar as DLC than Geno, regardless of how the Smash community views him.

But characters like Banjo/Ray Man? I think they're likely, for DLC. Ubisoft seems willing to play ball, and we saw that Rabbid Peach is a Spirit. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him show up as DLC.

 

[SvartWolf]

while i do understand why people got the message this way. personally i think that what he meant to say is that he didn't include rex and co in teh base game cause the base game planning ended in 2015. but when they decided dlc for this game they did wanted to go the third party route and therefore springman and rex got the consolation prizes. (i do feel that piranha plant was in the original 2015 plan though, but maybe it was a low priority character)

What is obvious though is that right now they know exactly what 5 characters they want, so i don't think that they will be looking for character support at least this dlc cycle. i would almost bet that at the very minimum 3 of those slot gonna be 3rd party big names and i think there is a good chance all 5 of them are new series. The only exception i can see of them doing this is waluigi. but honestly is more of a faaar shot.

 

[Ciro Blanco]

DLC was planned from the start

It is quite obvious... they are almost 25 dollars secured by a large part of those who buy the game.
Like another fighting games like Street Fighter V, BB CB, Tekken 7, DBFZ, Soul Calibur VI, etc...

 

[Homelessvagrant]

I'm sorry but I simply don't agree with this notion. There is nothing to signify that this is the case and Sakurai has even stated that he doesn't consider DLC until the initial game is completed. Granted the characters added still may mostly be 3rd parties for obvious reasons, but I took Rex mii as more of a placeholder until the real character was completed (that's how it sounded at least). There is no reason not to make him considering his massive popularity and the fact that they haven't even started DLC.

 

[Kevandre]

I'm sorry but I simply don't agree with this notion. There is nothing to signify that this is the case and Sakurai has even stated that he doesn't consider DLC until the initial game is completed. Granted the characters added still may mostly be 3rd parties for obvious reasons, but I took Rex mii as more of a placeholder until the real character was completed (that's how it sounded at least). There is no reason not to make him considering his massive popularity and the fact that they haven't even started DLC.

Nah, he says that they don't work on DLC until after the regular game is done, not that they didn't consider/plan it. The way the industry works these days, it's a good idea to plan things as early as possible, especially if you're making negotiations with other companies to use their IP. It's like how it's come out that Bayonetta was planned before the Ballot was a thing and he just said she won it.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

I'd say yes. Sakurai put certain characters in the back burner while getting the base roster done. He knew that certain characters won't be able to be developed on time so DLC works


This works in Banjo, Geno, and Crash's favor

 

[Teeb147]

Here's my post about this topic:

Nintendo:
"Since we decided which fighters to include when we planned the game, we weren't able to add characters from some games which were announced after planning had started. I hope this outfit will help you feel like you're playing as Rex."
+ ("While Rex didn't quite make the roster...")

"We've yet to create any of the paid DLC [...] but we'll start working on them as soon as we're finished with the main game."

And it seems to be the same in other languages.

It seems to me that it's unclear. Because when they say that he didnt make the roster, they dont say if it's base roster or final roster. It may just be a consolation for the wait, of sorts, or it could mean he wont be in dlc at all. (if the dlc content was planned at the same time)
-It's not precise enough to be sure that someone like rex wouldbe be in at all, and corrin is an example of that being possible at least in smash 4.

As for not having created any paid dlc, again it's unclear too, because it could still mean they decided or planned them but didn't 'work' on creating them much yet. It sounds like they havent done much at all (including planning), but the first part makes it sound like they already decided which ones would be in.


These two parts seem to contradict themselves depending on how they're taken. So I actually don't know what to think of it :O

I think it's hard to say exactly for sure just based on what they said.

 

[BronzeGreekGod]

All I know is there better be more than 1 fighter pack for dlc. They best keep things going. And assist trophies need to be unlockable as playable characters.

 

[Calamitas]

This is the sort of thing that's really just asking for a clarification on Sakurai's side in a future Famitsu column of his. Personally though, I'm more inclined to believe that the characters were decided on from the start, because of how he said that they could reveal the content of the Fighter's Pass then and there.

 

[Swaggy-G]

His wording was confusing but I feel like the DLC characters were chosen at the same time as the rest of the cast. Why else would he be apologetic enough to make a Rex mii costume as a consolation prize, then include it in the DLC itself? He clearly wants to add him, and it wouldn't make sense to do that if he was gonna be in the first DLC anyway.

 

[soviet prince]

I say they have a pretty good idea

 

[lucasla]

Like any recent active online game, it needs some content updates to keep people with the feeling they are not playing a game that was forgot by the developers. So, I appreciate the DLC over time. The game will ends up with at least 80 characters, and it will also have 5 original stages too. I'm just happy with this information. I don't mind in paying for that, it's good content.

 

[WiiRool]

His wording was confusing but I feel like the DLC characters were chosen at the same time as the rest of the cast. Why else would he be apologetic enough to make a Rex mii costume as a consolation prize, then include it in the DLC itself? He clearly wants to add him, and it wouldn't make sense to do that if he was gonna be in the first DLC anyway.

Yea I'm not the best writer.
I'm glad you got the point.

 

[Swaggy-G]

Yea I'm not the best writer.
I'm glad you got the point.

I was talking about Sakurai's wording, not yours.

 

[WiiRool]

I was talking about Sakurai's wording, not yours.

OH! Right!
Well I'm glad about that too.