I'm NOT posting this list for the contest, because my list has 40 characters in it. This is just for fun. If you change the rules though, and 40 are allowed, then by all means add my list to the contest
But your clone rule is kind of confusing, and according to that, I have 39 characters or whatever.
Mario Universe (and related)
-Mario
-Luigi
-Peach
-Bowser
-Wario
-Donkey Kong
-Diddy Kong
-Yoshi
The Mario characters won't be very surprising for most. There were so many Mario characters in SSBM, I decided only to add one more character: Diddy Kong, because he is wanted really badly by a lot of people, including me.
Legend of Zelda Universe
-Link
-Zelda
-Ganondorf
-Young Link
-Midna/Wolf Link
Yeah yeah, I put OoT Young Link in here. Why? Well for one, I think the Link character has enough flexibility to have a completely new moveset for Young Link, that uses moves that define him more (Lens of Truth in some way, Deku Nut, etc.). So, if Sakurai can define a moveset for him without having to resort to the less popular WW Link, then I think he will. Plus, the transition would be kind of wierd from realistic to cartoony, and I think the new graphic style in SSBB would not fit with a cell shaded character. I think it would look wierd. Besides that, I have Midna here.
Metroid Universe
-Samus/Zero Suit Samus
-Ridley
I think any more than Samus and Ridley for Metroid is impossible. Nobody in the Metroid Universe is important enough for PC status, and Dark Samus will probably end up an Alternate Costume.
Pokemon Universe
-Pikachu
-Jigglypuff
-Mewtwo
-Lucario
To the people who think Mewtwo will be scratched: it's not happening. Why would Sakurai give a character with a completely original moveset the boot? It makes no sence. So what if Mewtwo sucked in the last game. I think he will be drastically imporoved in this one. As for Lucario, it just makes sence. If any 4th Gen Pokemon is coming in the roster, Lucario is. He's simply the most popular (he has a movie based around him for god's sake) AND he's a fighting type. Lucario=Perfect SSBB material.
Star Fox Universe
-Fox McCloud
-Falco Lombardi
-Krystal
-Wolf O' Donnel
I'm not exactly sure why Falco is staying, but I just can't imagine him leaving for some reason. I think he has too much personality to be called a flat out clone, like Dr. Mario and Pichu, which are basically the same characters as Mario and Pikachu (respectively. I scratched those two BTW). Krystal and Wolf will have unique movesets. Krystal will use her staff, and I think Wolf will use explosions to show that he's a badass
Kirby Universe
-Kirby
-Metaknight
-King Dedede
I don't think I really need to comment here. King Dedede is practically a given IMO.
Earthbound Universe
-Ness
-Lucas
Lucas will either become a Ness clone, or a completely new character, with different Psi moves from the games. I didn't play the Earthbound games though, so I'm not sure.
Fire Emblem Universe
-Eliwood
-Hector
-Ike
Now before you tell me that the chances of Marth and Roy leaving are slim to none, I'm telling you that I think Ike will have thier moveset. All three of these characters are in US games, so I think there is a high chance that they will arrive. I chose Eliwood and Hector out of the other Lords in the games because they have unique weapons, which will undoubtedly make thier gameplay awesome. I don't think SSBB needs any more than 109237893 sword users if you ask me.
Other Nintendo Characters
-Captain Falcon
-Pit
-Mr. Game and Watch
-Ice Climbers
-Captain Olimar
-Chrono
-Isaac
-Felix
Captain Falcon, Pit, and Captain Olimar are probably self explanitory, but guess the rest I need to explain. First off, I don't think the chances of Mr. Game and Watch and Ice Climbers leaving are very high. They both have unique movesets, and are classics. There is simply no reason for them to go. "They are lame" and "thier time is up" ARE NOT good reasons. AT ALL. As for Chrono, if Square wants to put a character of thiers into the game, Chrono is the most likely IMO. Isaac and Felix, although I'm not sure how likely it is that they'll get in the game, I really, REALLY hope they do. Felix will essentially be a clone of Isaac, because they are both equally important and I can't see one being in the game without the other.
Third Party Characters
-Snake
-Sonic
-Megaman
These three seem to be the third party characters in everybody's list, and I really agree. Sonic and Megaman are EXTREMELY likely to get in the game at this point. Not many will argue with me on that one.
Overall:
40 Characters Total
20 Veteran Characters
20 Newcomer Characters