The Last Direct: What To Expect Based on Previous Directs

[Thinkaman]

There have been 6 Smash Directs, if we include the 25-minute Smash Ultimate E3 presentation as a full Direct. (It was certainly treated like one)

• 2 for Smash 4
• 2 for Smash 4 DLC
• 2 for Smash Ultimate (so far)

Smash 4 was intended to reveal most information across 2 large Directs totaling over 73 minutes, while Smash Ultimate seems to be doing a similar total across 3. Based on the 2 so far, it currently looks as if we will have a 25-30 minute 3rd Direct, totaling 75-80 minutes of total Smash Ultimate information--more than 4's total, despite the Smash Ultimate Directs moving at a noticeably faster pace.

Smash 4 also included a 10 minute highlight at E3 2014 (introducing Miis, customs, and revealing Palutena), while Smash Ultimate instead included a lot of focus at Treehouse Live 2018. (For example, this took the place of summaries for Ridley, Moray Towers, and Great Plateau Tower)

What can we learn from Smash 4's Directs? Namely, they included:

• 2-3 minutes each for the new major modes (Smash Run/Tour)
• 1 minute for Stage Builder
• 9 minutes total for all other single-player modes, including collectible features like Trophies
• 6 minutes total for all online-specific modes, content, functionality, and features

These are of note because these are the areas the 2 existing Smash 4 Directs have yet to cover. Combined, they barely feature 1 minute of single-player content. We don't know what all Smash Ultimate has in store for these aspects of the game, but assuming it is anything, they still have a lot of ground to cover. (Namely, all of it...)

Additionally, here are some average times for covering topics in past Directs:

• ~130 seconds for the average New Character Trailer
• ~150 seconds for the average New Character Gameplay Summary that follows
• ~50 seconds for the average new highlighted stage

Thus, new characters have historically taken ~280 seconds without a stage, or ~330 seconds with a stage.

Without further ado, here is a chart breaking down the contents of all previous Directs, including a projection for the final third of Smash Ultimate content:

Some notes:

• While Simon had an abnormally long trailer and abnormally short character summary (surely due to Ritcher), I've used average times for the opening character of this Direct instead. (It so happens to be the same total duration.)
• The biggest guess that is probably wrong is my very conservative estimate for DLC Preview announcements. I based the estimate you see off Mewtwo's, which was very brief--and I think most of us are expecting a more robust plan out of the gate for this title. I could see this taking much more time.
• Obviously the orders of the 4 big chunks are arbitrary. I fully expect them, especially one-player content, to be split up and mixed throughout the presentation. (Trying to predict the exact order of that is pointless.)
• I'm assuming Bosses get a lot of screen time, but are included in the Special Mode (and other single-player) coverage.
• There's probably some misc. crazy stuff that we can't guess, but if it doesn't fit into any of these categories, I'm sure it can be weaseled in somewhere. All my overall timings err on the conservative side.

If anyone wants to start a betting pool on the exact length of the last (base game) Direct, that sounds really stupid and I'm totally down.

 

[Mogisthelioma]

I think one thing that should be taken into account is Nintendo could address the amount of leaks coming out these days. They could add another 30 second clip of Sakurai disconfirming some notorious leaks, because this has gone on too far now and I think Sakurai can tell.

 

[Arthur97]

I think one thing that should be taken into account is Nintendo could address the amount of leaks coming out these days. They could add another 30 second clip of Sakurai disconfirming some notorious leaks, because this has gone on too far now and I think Sakurai can tell.

Never happened before, doubt it will happen now.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think that, in this direct, they will reveal the mystery mode, the online modes, the rest of the singleplayer content, and the Vault features, capped off by 1 or 2 newcomer trailers. They will also announce the rest of the Echo Fighters in a manner similar to Chrom or Dark Samus except if they are based on a newcomer, in which case they will be announced alongside their base character like how Richter Belmont was.

 

[Master of Fire]

This is a detailed and impressive analysis! I think it's spot-on.

#TeamThinkaman

 

[Pazzo.]

Nice work. We're almost there friends, just a little more to go.

 

[soviet prince]

I think one thing that should be taken into account is Nintendo could address the amount of leaks coming out these days. They could add another 30 second clip of Sakurai disconfirming some notorious leaks, because this has gone on too far now and I think Sakurai can tell.

that would open another can of worms, the ones he skips would then be suspect as being confirmed as a real leak

 

[Diem]

I don't think we're going to get any mention of DLC. Mewtwo was mentioned in Smash 4 because he was a veteran that was in-progress during the game's normal development and wouldn't be finished in time for release. I don't think that will be the case for Smash Ultimate, since all the veterans are here, and all statements about DLC have been that it's not being given any thought right now because all attention is on the content at hand, not the content that's to come.

Pretty sure we'll get a character trailer in the beginning and one in the end, just like the last Direct, with Echo Fighters announced in-between. I don't think it will follow the exact same pattern, though. But whoever the last character is, it'll have to be someone that blows people away for one reason or another, just like Ridley and K. Rool.

My guess for the least we could expect:

Beginning: First character reveal (probably Incineroar)
Middle: Echo Fighter reveals (Ken, maybe Shadow)
End: Last character reveal (possibly Geno)

Which is why I'm skeptical of the "Grinch" leak, I guess we're calling it. Too many characters to cover in one Direct.

In the middle we'll find out about Spirits and any other remaining information in the Direct. Probably some of the online modes, now that Nintendo Online has been launched.

 

[StarFan13]

The 50 Fact

 

[Matoi]

I’m hoping in the next direct they just announce all the remaining characters, spirit mode(hopefully a story mode), Online, and every other mode in the game.