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I think it's entirely possible that we won't get an ARMS character,Spring Man to commemorate the new ARMS tourney.
Those are basically my thoughts, perhaps, if not a Pokemon, someone such as Waluigi for Mario Tennis Aces (or just Rex... I guess, e3 seems a little big for that though). But other than that, I imagine it will be similar to the e3 reveal with two newcomers (one of which being Spring Man, absolutely) and a third-party. Your two choices seem to be the most feasible, at the moment. If they wanted to do a bombshell 3rd party, they might save it for DLC or maybe even closer to launch.I am assuming we are getting nothing until E3. If so, a third party is certain. If I had to guess, it would be Rayman or Crash Bandicoot.
As for a Nintendo character, well chances are the Pokemon Switch game might be at E3. So...a new Pokemon and perhaps a character representing a new IP (Spring Man/Ribbon Girl). Obviously a bunch of veterans that everyone expects at 100% will be there.