Tactician's Notebook, Vol. II - Robin Moveset Deduction and Predictions Thread

Zareidriel

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#1
With the release of the Smash Ultimate reveal today, I'm sure there are several other crazies out there like me that're chomping at the bit to get any scrap of data we can about Robin. Unfortunately, however, she was not part of the starting roster for the E3 demo and was not featured in the invitational, so we probably won't have much to go off of for a while.

That being said, we do have a little bit of data to work with. Firstly the original reveal stream features Robin in two places, showcasing her inclusion into the roster at 20:35 and new durability bar mechanic at 27:55. Neither one of these results provide much in the way of moveset data, the first of those being just a forward smash, though the second also has a Thoron, and could help us get a frame data approximation for those two moves.

But luckily we got much more than that from the official website:

https://www.smashbros.com/en_US/fighter/56.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBxtnTgUwcM

About 15 solid seconds of raw Robin action. And out of this we can see:

Arcfire
(Levin) Fair
Elwind
Lookin' good Frobin!
Arcthunder
(Levin) Fsmash
Nosferatu
Tome discard (Bounce?!)
Jab->Jab->Fire
Thoron

There's not a whole lot here, but luckily Sakurai at least dropped us a few scraps to play with in the meantime. Hopefully we'll get a little more Robin content leading up to release.

Let the moveset discussion commence!
 
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Zareidriel

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#2
My own thoughts on the video:

-First of all, the classic combo, Arcfire and Sair! Glad to know we'll still have that reliable (though risky) chain. Arcfire still looks painfully slow to cast, but could have gotten better; it's hard to tell since the scene seems to literally be cut during Arcfire's endlag.

-Now what the heck is up with Elwind? There's been no mention of customs so I guess it's just all diagonal now. It's quite interesting that the blades are shot in one direction and then the other. The forward-diagonally-down blade might be a good ledge guard option? It would be even cooler if each of your elwind-blade-directions were individually controllable; this would be both just extremely awesome as well as incredibly useful in making Robin's recovery, one of her weakest attributes, much better.

-They have succeeded in transferring more of female Robin's natural beauty into Smash. Stunning!

-Arcthunder looks sick. Hard to tell anything beyond that, looks pretty much the same from a gameplay perspective to the eye. But this scene does make me excited to use more arcthunder->fsmash, definitely one of the most satisfying Robin finishers.

-Nosferatu with an interesting stylization here, but still good. My biggest question is probably the tome bouncing on Jiggs - can we catch tomes that bounce off enemies and shields now? If tome play became a little more doable, with slightly longer poof times on the discarded items, it might take Robin's item game from gimmicky to reliable.

If the frame data estimates on these moves tend towards an overall increase in speed from Smash 4, that kind of character change would be exactly what Robin needs to stand at, or at least near, the top. However if she's pretty much the same without much to make up for it, I fear she'll once again just get taken apart by the speedy top-tier characters. I love having great offense, zone control, and a bunch of kill moves, but just Arcfire and a straight projectile attack are not enough defense against characters with more speed and better projectiles than Robin. I'm hoping we get that "little extra something" to really give Robin a chance.
 
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#3
I did a double take on the Elwind too. Thanks for reminding me of the new Smash site, it's nice to see it already has new footage of veteran fighters outside of what we seen in the game reveal trailer. Palutena's custom set being part of her whole kit leaves me with less hope that custom moves are returning so this may be an "updated" Elwind with some custom attributes in it now?

Well, other than was looks like a decreased end lag on Thunder, I hope they eliminated that DAMN. NOSFERATU. FREEFALL. Give me a reason to use it in the air please!
 

Nah

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#4
Elwind was the main thing that stuck out to me too, probably because it was the most obvious change in the trailer (it's rather difficult to get anything meaningful out of a 20-25 second trailer that isn't going to reveal everything, especially when you can't play the game yourself). Kind of get the feeling that it's more that we can now choose the general direction each wind blade shoots out rather than it's diagonal now instead of vertical.

But we'll see what happens--they still have months of time left to make changes and ****, so the final product could be different.
 

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#5
My personal predictions and deductions:

- If I had to guess, the direction of Elwind can be changed.

- Directional air dodges should help us recover without Elwind near ledge, but further away it will be harder to recover.

- No more Thunder Charge B-reverse Air Dodges. Rip mix-ups.

- Biggest improvements are reduced jumpsquat animations (7 frames -> 3 frames) and overall better frame data for most characters, except nerfs to top tiers.

- No more SHAD (short hop air dodge) anymore. I'd say that's a huge boon to us because zone breaking via air dodges is gone.

- Overall speed improvements to the caat, as well as higher initial dash speeds for most characters.

- I fear the Bronze Sword being even more useless due to the increased game tempo.

- Perfect Shield changes should weaken dash -> shield timings.

- Wavedashing could probably be a better way to ledge trump.

That's it for now.
 
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#6
Now with the gauges/bars at the bottom showcasing the amount of energy left for Robin’s specials, can’t opponents use this to their advantages? Now someone will know when Robin’s Elwind is almost run dry, and in that case they will be sure to keep Robin offstage (whereas before, they probably didn’t know or were keeping track of when the specials were going to run out).
 
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#7
I admit that worries me too. Sadly,I don't think it's a possible feature to keep the indicator to the user's eyes only when playing solo online.
 
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Nah

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#9
idk, it doesn't seem like a big deal to me

people always had the opportunity to know when the tomes/Levin Sword were gonna run out, as they flash when they're on roughly their last usage or two

and even if no one ever paid attention to that, everybody at the very least knew that the tomes run out eventually, that if they keep swatting Robin away she'll eventually die since Elwind will inevitably run out of uses
 

Drarky

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#10
The flash was already an obvious tell for the opponent, I don't this hurts Robin, it's mostly a neat thing if you're starting to get used to him.
 
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#11
Robin was not a popular character online, and subtlety can be used against the ignorant opponent. Of course they watch for a flash, but it's an easy presumption for the opponent to think you're always going for a full charge, even in 1v1.
 

PK Gaming

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#12
Do we have any frame data? I know that his moves seem to have been sped up, but nothing concrete.
 
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Avokha

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#15
Just wanna point out that Elwind's sound effect on hit is different, now it sounds similar, if not identical to, the sounds Ragnell makes on hit.
Indicative of higher damage perhaps?
 
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#16
Probably just a different SFX. A lot of SFX for hits and impacts got updated. Did Elwind even have a unique impact SFX outside of the "cut" SFX?
 

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#17
Probably just a different SFX. A lot of SFX for hits and impacts got updated. Did Elwind even have a unique impact SFX outside of the "cut" SFX?
In smash 4, Elwind shared its SFX with the bronze sword, but here there is a very clear difference between them, with jabs 1 and 2 having a quick, distinct "cut" sound to them, but Elwind on the other hand having a heavy "slam" sound very similar to Ike's attacks, giving the impression Elwind is now a much beefier move, although how much so remains to be seen.
 
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#18
Even I feel there is just too little info regarding Robin in Ultimate to be able to determine or even theorize now. I agree the new Elwind sounds "meatier" in its impact, but it may be a placebo effect in terms of being stronger or not.
 
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#19
I'm sorry to double post, but I may as well share this since it is relevant to the topic. It is a Robin trailer move breakdown from a Robin main-er and I don't think we knew about the light Jab change:
 
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OhMyBanana54

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#20
So I think the jump squat and landing lag changes are our biggest here. The other potentially vital improvement is Robin’s book staying around. If Robin’s run speed sees a buff, we may have a dangerous character in our hands but for now, Robin seems functionally the same as Smash 4. I’m still hyped though!
 

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#21
The universal jumpsquat is such a #blessed moment for Robin. It always drove me crazy that it varied amongst the cast in 4, as if the top tier speedsters needed that little extra advantage in order to oppress the rest of the cast with their busted mobility. Between that change and short-hop being an actual input now, I hope that us tacticians will have a more realistic chance at successfully zoning in this game.
 
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#22
Robin got noticeable buffs all around outside of the general homogenization changes, so I do think Robin is a much deadlier character now in the right hands.
 

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#23
It seems mechanics with the Levin sword are changing slightly. Peeps are reporting that he/she isn't starting with the sword on hand, and needs to wait for it (Likely for the same amount of time it takes to recover, so not horribly long), but the big thing: LEVIN SWORD NAIR exists. Just the thought of it's uses while gimping is getting me hyped af.
 
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#24
It seems mechanics with the Levin sword are changing slightly. Peeps are reporting that he/she isn't starting with the sword on hand, and needs to wait for it (Likely for the same amount of time it takes to recover, so not horribly long), but the big thing: LEVIN SWORD NAIR exists. Just the thought of it's uses while gimping is getting me hyped af.
Are you SERIOUS?! Levin Neutral?!

I need...I need to lay down. This is going to change EVERYTHING.

Speaking of unexpected buffs/nerfs. The Pikachu VS Simon 1v1 sample in the Direct and how long Simon was stunned from Pika's DAir leaves me wondering if elemental effects like lightning actually does this? If so, does this mean Thunder and Levin Sword cause longer hitstuns?

Edit: Found it, Levin Nair at 0:17. Why must the juicy new info always be in such poor video quality?

Several things to note:

-Thunder(B)seems to charge faster. The charge level spells are easier to tell apart.

-Fthrow has a "wind blast" aesthetic. Hopefully this doesn't take a use from the tome.

-Levin Nair, while I haven't seen it land, looks so delicious

-Even though it's true from what I can tell in that match that you may have to wait for Levin Sword to charge, I think I also counted an extra use in there.

-Levin Fair still unsafe on shield, even when spaced.

-Wind Jab looks like it is even harder to get out of and still has that ridiculous knock up - I think this is because of the universal changes.

-Super Thoron took out the Pika team, both at 102% easily and it traveled along the main ground of Green Greens! Either the size was nerfed(likely)and/or the terrain collision was fixed. This isn't too surprising since the victims were lightweights, I just recall some mentioning that Thoron may have got nerfed in power.

-Levin DAir is safer on shield, but not much. It reminds me of Ike's new endlag on certain aerials.
 
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Avokha

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#25
Not only that, but our initial run speed is buffed. Basically, Clouds smash 4 dash dance belongs to us now :demon:

Some other changes:
-We can indeed angle elwind between blades
-F throw knockback seems to have increased (also had an elwind flurry added to its animation)
-levin sword seems to be bigger overall
-we can now double jump out of aerial thunder charge

Some nerfs did come our way too though:
-RIP checkmate
-we dont start the match with levin sword (may just be limited to FFAs)
-arcthunders duration was slightly reduced
 
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#26
Looks like they did nerf our combo game. This is truly disheartening - but does the flower bloom in the desolate lands with these other buffs/changes? The universal changes were a huge buff on its own. I'm also happy to know that Robin's speed got buffed too!

The Arcthunder duration nerf is heavy. It looks like it lasts half of what it use to be. But I noticed it did a whopping 21.1% dmg there. When I piece it all together: Arcthunder's duration, charge speed...We got a Speed Thunder core change didn't we?

Edit: Found some other info dumps on Reddit and Twitter.

https://twitter.com/Marcbri/status/1058391123696201729

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/...cxdP_h4-c_ArehfHxdM6z7Tydku_RCulueO5uDey1yE8Y

Up Smash, or Levin USmash got buffed! It's fair to say that our boi/gurl's buffs far outweigh the nerfs and is far better than Smash 4 Robin.
 
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Punkish

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#27
Looks like they did nerf our combo game. This is truly disheartening - but does the flower bloom in the desolate lands with these other buffs/changes? The universal changes were a huge buff on its own. I'm also happy to know that Robin's speed got buffed too!

The Arcthunder duration nerf is heavy. It looks like it lasts half of what it use to be. But I noticed it did a whopping 21.1% dmg there. When I piece it all together: Arcthunder's duration, charge speed...We got a Speed Thunder core change didn't we?
We'll just have to wait and see if Arcthunder has new follow-ups. Hopefully it has less endlag when firing it, so Robin can run in and follow up with aerials. The overall movement buff in general should be an amazing help to the kit, and will save me a lot of headaches when trying to catch some of the faster characters.

Up Smash, or Levin USmash got buffed! It's fair to say that our boi/gurl's buffs far outweigh the nerfs and is far better than Smash 4 Robin.
As for the Up Smash Buffs... I'm gonna have to wait and see what we can combo into it before I decide if it will truly be worthwhile. I can't speak for other players, but my playstyle rarely uses it outside of a few choice Arc-spell followups. Short Hop Up Air always felt more reliable to me. Still, can't wait to see how everything works together!
 
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#28
As I suspected, Robin's kit had received enough changes to completely revamp how we usually play him. With Checkmate gone, I imagine other Arcthunder/Arcfire combos will be gone or at least, harder to pull off like my personal favorite, Ignis.
 

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#29
I want to say that there were pieces of footage that showed that Arcfire and Arcthunder combos are still possible, and I also vaguely recall hearing that a lot of combos (especially throw combos) were gutted across the whole cast

but I might be misremembering things, and I might be out of date on stuff, I haven't been paying a whole lot of attention to pre-release stuff

I really hope Levin Sword is indeed longer now though, that'd be nice
 

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#30
Nosferatu was discovered to now be only 3 uses, but it may recover much faster than smash 4. Also, aerial nos allegedly still puts us in freefall, but now we can ledgesnap if we do it just over the stage.
 

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#33
The Robin discord compiled a list of all currently discovered changes, posting the changes here so they can easily be found;

Robin changes Super Smash Bros. Ultimate:

Base overall changes:
- Major initial dash buff; running speed is still heavily below average, but burst movement is much improved. Very helpful benefit from engine mechanic changes.

- Dash grab and pivot grab seem to have additional visual effects. However, any range increases are unconfirmed.

- Final Smash is still Pair Up with Chrom; if Chrom is also a player in the match, there's just 2 Chroms existing, lol.

All known equipment recharge time and usage:
Equipment usage maximum: 20 units

- Levin sword throw damage: 13%
- Tome throw damage: 10%

Levin sword recharge time: 10 seconds.
- Grounded Smash attack: 2 units
- Aerial Smash attack: 3 units

Thunder tome recharge time: 12 seconds.
- Thunder: 1 unit
- Elthunder: 3 units
- Arcthunder: 5 units
- Thoron: 8 units

Fire tome recharge time: 12 seconds.
- Arcfire: 3-4 units ([4] units if used when amount of units remaining is [20, 15, or 10]; It's strange, but it adds up to 6 uses cleanly while allowing more fire jab uses than in the previous game)
- Fire jab: 2 units

Wind tome recharge time: Unconfirmed; probably still 7 seconds.
- Elwind: 4 units (all 4 units are used at the start of the special)
- Wind rapid jab: 2+ units (can still be held at the cost of more tome usage over time)
- Wind rapid jab ender: 2 units

Dark tome recharge time: 30 seconds.
- Nosferatu: 7 units

Ground & Aerial attacks:
- At the start of a match, Levin sword is unavailable and on standard cooldown (10 seconds). Respawning after death still gives you Levin sword.
- Lingering Levin hitbox damage: 5% → 4%

Jab:
- New universal mechanic that keeps grounded opponents grounded while being hit by jabs is a major buff to wind jab, which was previously very easy to escape out of.

- Universal changes to jab speed up animation and increase hitlag, but increased recovery and decreased hitstun on non-finishers make jab 1/2 conversions into anything, except finishing the jab, completely unviable.

- Jab 1 damage: 3% → 2%; Jab 2 damage: 3% → 1.5%; Fire jab ender: 5% → 6%

Tilts & Dash attack:
- Up tilt hits slightly lower to the ground. Recovers a bit faster.

Smashes:
- F-smash lingering hit: 9%

- Up smash animation and hitbox changed; an upper sweeping motion with the floating Levin sword instead of stabbing motion. Bronze sword version still holds the sword and stabs upward. Sweet spot is easier to land. Still sourspots on grounded opponents.

- Down smash no longer creates separate sparks, but instead creates a shockwave that extends approximately the same distance around Robin. Still does 2 hits on shield, dealing large amounts of shield damage.
- 13% front shockwave. 12% back hitbox extended to cover the air behind Robin.

Aerials:
- All aerial landing lag significantly reduced, similar to most of the cast. Auto-cancel windows still intact.
- - - N-air: 18f → 12f
F-air: 18f → 13f
U-air: TBA
B-air: 19f → 12f
D-air: TBA
- Robin can now use the Levin sword on n-air; gains the increased hitbox of the Levin sword. Does 12% and retains the same angle of knockback. (No Levin sword on dash attack, sadly.)

Special attacks:
Thunder:
- Now able to jump out of aerial Thunder charge.
- Thunder spells as a whole are smaller and move faster, except Arcthunder.
- Arcthunder stun duration reduced significantly but travel speed also reduced; overall much harder to follow up on.
- Thoron now goes through full animation slightly faster; also has more powerful knockback, and can now be B-reversed.

- Elthunder damage: 10.5% → 11.5%
- Arcthunder damage: 10% → ~23%

Fire:
- Arcfire is harder to escape; recovery lag is reduced slightly. Projectile is smaller, but explosion is slightly larger making it easier to land in the middle of an opponent and trap them for the maximum hits.
- Arcfire range increased.
- Arcfire tome usage adjusted.

- Arcfire damage: 13% → 14%

Wind:
- Elwind can be angled in a wide variety of upward directions and moves much faster.
- Aerial speed and mobility after use is increased.
- Elwind tome usage adjusted.

Dark:
- Nosferatu still puts Robin into free fall, but Robin can now grab the ledge if Nosferatu is used offstage to grab an opponent on stage over the ledge.
- Nosferatu now goes through successful grab full animation faster. Damage is increased; both damage and healing speed scaled up to match increased pace.

- Nosferatu tome usage adjusted.

Throws:
- Forward throw damage: 8% → 9%
- Back throw damage: 11% → 12%
- D-throw knockback increased; Checkmate basically removed.

Credit to Xeroskia on discord for the compilation :)

EDIT: Updated with new confirmed changes, now with some landing lag frame data
 
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Arthur97

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#34
You, uh, repeated the Ground & Aerial sections. Otherwise thanks.

Though, why is the Levin sword unavailable at the beginning?
 

Punkish

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#35
All in all, I think the changes will affect a lot of what we already know and have down from S4... but they don't change enough to alter his overall playstyle. I'm sticking with him as one of my 3 "mains". Also might I have a link to the robin discord? I'd love to be able to discuss stuff there.
 
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#36
Didn't know of the DSmash change. Hopefully the shockwave hitbox means it is bigger than the sparks. I'm gonna miss those sparks.

Going through old footage again, I noticed Robin's Thunder was doing more damage, including Arcthunder in the Levin Nair match(Team Battle), Can someone confirm this? Well, you know what? I'd like a link to the Robin Discord as well please!
 
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Avokha

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#37
You, uh, repeated the Ground & Aerial sections. Otherwise thanks.

Though, why is the Levin sword unavailable at the beginning?
Oops, thats awkward :p edited
All in all, I think the changes will affect a lot of what we already know and have down from S4... but they don't change enough to alter his overall playstyle. I'm sticking with him as one of my 3 "mains". Also might I have a link to the robin discord? I'd love to be able to discuss stuff there.
Didn't know of the DSmash change. Hopefully the shockwave hitbox means it is bigger than the sparks. I'm gonna miss those sparks.

Going through old footage again, I noticed Robin's Thunder was doing more damage, including Arcthunder in the Levin Nair match(Team Battle), Can someone confirm this? Well, you know what? I'd like a link to the Robin Discord as well please!
https://discord.gg/MCnrdt
That should work, should be good for one day, so join before you go to sleep lol.

Arcthunder does seem to be much stronger damagewise this time around, so it seems that the idea now is arcthunder combos will be harder to get, but MUCH more rewarding when you do land them.

EDIT:

Robin's first ever recorded 1v1 (also featuring Dark Samus)! This actually showcases most of the above changes pretty well i think, dig in!
(By the gods, arcthunder did 30% 0_o)
 
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