Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Lifetime Sales Prediction Thread

[IronTed]

One aspect of smash that tends to be discussed little is sales. It's understandable why, but I am of the belief that this time around sales will be worth looking at, even if you normally don't pay attention to the charts. That's because Ultimate may very well not only break Smash records, but Nintendo console records as well. I'm curious as to what others are thinking on this matter. Long term, when it's all said and done and the Switch comes to an end, how much will Ultimate sell? Again, this is for lifetime sales. And because I know someone will say it, yes, a lot of assumptions are necessary to draw a conclusion, but that's the whole point. This is about predicting and seeing how close (or far) you end up, assumptions are what make these threads interesting.

Also, because context is key, here is the relevant information about past Smash titles and console lifetime sales.

Super Smash Bros 5.55 million / N64 32.93 million

Super Smash Bros Melee 7.41 million / GameCube 21.74 million

Super Smash Bros Brawl 13.27 million / Wii 101.63 million

Super Smash Bros for 3DS 9.24 million / 3DS 72.53 million

Super Smash Bros for Wii U 5.34 million / Wii U 13.56 million

Super Smash Bros for 3DS and Wii U 14.58 million / 3DS and Wii U 86.09 million

Edit: As of December 31st, 2018

Super Smash Bros Brawl 13.29 million / Wii 101.63 million

Super Smash Bros for 3DS 9.45 million / 3DS 74.84 million

Super Smash Bros for Wii U 5.35 million / Wii U 13.56 million

Super Smash Bros for 3DS and Wii U 14.80 million / 3DS and Wii U 88.4 million

Super Smash Bros Ultimate 12.08 million / Switch 32.27 million

Also some corrections. Wii LTD is 101.63, not 101.64 million. I initially put the combined Smash 4 total at 14.68 million when it was really 14.58 million.

Edit 2: As of March 31st, 2019

Super Smash Bros Brawl 13.30 million / Wii 101.63 million

Super Smash Bros for 3DS 9.49 million / 3DS 75.08 million

Super Smash Bros for Wii U 5.36 million / Wii U 13.56 million

Super Smash Bros for 3DS and Wii U 14.85 million / 3DS and Wii U 88.64 million

Super Smash Bros Ultimate 13.81 million / Switch 34.74 million

Edit 3: As of June 30th, 2019

Super Smash Bros for 3DS 9.52 million / 3DS 75.28 million

Super Smash Bros for 3DS and Wii U 14.88 million / 3DS and Wii U 88.84 million

Super Smash Bros Ultimate 14.73 million / Switch 36.87 million

Edit 4: As of September 30th, 2019

Super Smash Bros for 3DS 9.54 million / 3DS 75.45 million

Super Smash Bros for Wii U 5.37 million / Wii U 13.56 million

Super Smash Bros for 3DS and Wii U 14.9 million / 3DS and Wii U 89.01 million

Super Smash Bros Ultimate 15.71 million / Switch 41.67 million

Sell-through for April-September 2019: 1.84 million

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

 

[Mariomaniac45213]

I voted 10-15 million lifetime. Brawl is the best selling in the franchise (rightfully so if I might add) but it also was on the system with the biggest install base. While I don't see Switch surpassing Wii lifetime sales or even getting close. I still think this game will have a decent attach rate simply due to Switch being marketed as a "hardcore" gaming device and Ultimate looks to be the most competitive "hardcore" driven Smash ever made. It's doing a lot of things right and I think it will pay off greatly for Nintendo. This is the Smash that feels the most fan servicey which is weird because Smash Bros was always about fan service.

 

[DaUsername]

Voted 15-20 million.
Considering the fact that Super Mario Odyssey is about to outsell Galaxy, I could see a similar situation happening for this game.

 

[ItsMeBrandon]

I view Smash for 3DS and Wii U as counting as one iteration for the sake of argument. Going by that, what stands out to me the most is that every Smash iteration has sold better than its predecessor, regardless of console lifetime sales.

The main assumption I make is that this pattern will continue, and seeing as the Switch is doing pretty well and Ultimate is coming out within its second year on the market, I'm sure the game will sell at least 15 mil. copies in its lifetime. I'm not certain about hitting 20 mil. or higher, but it's possible, and would be well-deserved, I think.

 

[Ronster87]

15-20 mil is my estimation.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm going to be bold and say above 25 million. The hype for this game right now is insane.

 

[StormC]

Voted 15-20 million.
Considering the fact that Super Mario Odyssey is about to outsell Galaxy, I could see a similar situation happening for this game.

This. BOTW is also already the highest selling Zelda. The Switch having a smaller userbase doesn't matter as much when the userbase aligns so damn well with the software (Odyssey has a 70% adoption rate, that's insane).

Gonna say around 15 million but with enough spillover to approach 20.

 

[pupNapoleon]

100 billion units!
*cue dr evil pinky-to-mouth*

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Legit above 25 million since the original announcement in March shook the internet like nothing before and now everyone is hyped.

Also this is the Switch. C'mon. And it comes out at Christmastime, perfect for parents to buy for their kids.

 

[IronTed]

Voted 15-20 million.
Considering the fact that Super Mario Odyssey is about to outsell Galaxy, I could see a similar situation happening for this game.

I view Smash for 3DS and Wii U as counting as one iteration for the sake of argument. Going by that, what stands out to me the most is that every Smash iteration has sold better than its predecessor, regardless of console lifetime sales.

The main assumption I make is that this pattern will continue, and seeing as the Switch is doing pretty well and Ultimate is coming out within its second year on the market, I'm sure the game will sell at least 15 mil. copies in its lifetime. I'm not certain about hitting 20 mil. or higher, but it's possible, and would be well-deserved, I think.

This. BOTW is also already the highest selling Zelda. The Switch having a smaller userbase doesn't matter as much when the userbase aligns so damn well with the software (Odyssey has a 70% adoption rate, that's insane).

Gonna say around 15 million but with enough spillover to approach 20.

These largely sum up my positions. To me there are 3 things that make Ultimate a monster:

First is Smash's trajectory. As noted above, combining Wii U and 3DS gives Smash a purely positive momentum. Double dipping notwithstanding of course (realistically you can't prove how much though).

Second is the Switch effect. This term applies to all established Nintendo franchises in that they will set records and outsell most or all of their predecessors.
BOTW will crush every other Zelda.
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will not hit the insane numbers of the Wii version, but it will top the DS version and become the second best selling Mario Kart ever.
Splatoon 2 outsold the original, which was expected, but the game is still doing crazy good.
Pokken outsold the original, which was expected.
Odyssey has already been noted.
Xenoblade 2 outsold 1 and X (and every Xeno game ever IIRC).
Kirby Star Allies will be second only to the original Kirby (the original sold over 5 million).
Tropical Freeze outsold the Wii U version in like 2 months. It's an outlier in that it won't become among the best selling DKC games, but it still is going strong.
Hyrule Warriors we don't know about, although the fact it was already on 3DS substantially limited its potential I would argue. Either way we don't know.
Mario Tennis Aces has outsold most other Mario Tennis games in roughly a week. It will crush the original and best selling version easily.
This won't apply to every game, but there is enough data to argue Smash will benefit from this. And keep in mind, the Switch installbase is less than the GameCube's as of the last report! This is truly insane.

Finally Ultimate is just amazing. The amount of content and marketing is huge, and there is no doubt it will be massively pushed. Keep in mind 4 launched on the dead Wii U and the rather average 3DS (by 2014 its fate was sealed). Switch has much more promise and will have much more investment.

With all this said, I predict it will sell over 20 million. 15 is definitely safer, but I'm very bullish.

 

[FalconFire93]

Over 25 million copies is very possible.

 

[TheHypermew]

I believe over 20mil in sales. So many people watched the direct the other day and combine this with that the sales that the switch has had and thats a lot of copies. Combine that with christmas sales and boom

 

[Super Flygon]

Voted for 15 to 20 million, but I could see it going higher and a lot of my reasoning has already been explained from other posters in this thread.

Definitely thinking Ultimate will be the best selling Smash game (it deserves to be), even if when you count Smash 3DS/Wii U as one entity, which might be unfair to do considering people who bought both versions. My brother and I each own Smash 3DS and have one copy of Smash Wii U, so that's 3 units total. We're only getting 1 copy of Ultimate.

Either way, I don't see that stopping people. In fact, I could see Ultimate reach 10 million (or close to it) before the end of 2018. Would be amazing to have the best selling Smash game after the worst selling!

 

[IronTed]

Update: Ultimate sold 12.08 million in December alone, with 3.17 million in Japan and 8.91 million overseas. As of this post, 26.7% (8) voted 10-15 million, 36.7% (11) voted 15-20, 16.7% voted 20-25, and 20% (6) voted above 25. Thankfully no one voted for below 10 (or below 5), and based on these launch numbers it's apparent Ultimate will blow past 15 million and become the best selling Smash entry ever. OP will also be updated with Ultimate's sales and updates for the Wii U and 3DS entries.

Edit: Super Flygon , it appears your 10 million end of year prediction turned out to be conservative! It's definitely amazing how we can go from the Wii U version's pitiful sales to Ultimate over doubling its lifetime sales in mere weeks. Truly incredible.

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Update: Ultimate sold 12.08 million in December alone, with 3.17 million in Japan and 8.91 million overseas. As of this post, 26.7% (8) voted 10-15 million, 36.7% (11) voted 15-20, 16.7% voted 20-25, and 20% (6) voted above 25. Thankfully no one voted for below 10 (or below 5), and based on these launch numbers it's apparent Ultimate will blow past 15 million and become the best selling Smash entry ever. OP will also be updated with Ultimate's sales and updates for the Wii U and 3DS entries.

Edit: Super Flygon , it appears your 10 million end of year prediction turned out to be conservative! It's definitely amazing how we can go from the Wii U version's pitiful sales to Ultimate over doubling its lifetime sales in mere weeks. Truly incredible.

12 million in December alone, huh? I'd say we probably got at least another 2 to 4 million in January, after launch.

 

[MG_3989]

Ultimate is going to sell a lot more copies over it’s lifetime. Not everyone who wants a Switch has one yet and pretty much everyone who buys a Switch from here on out will buy Smash

Keep in mind this is Smash on Nintendo’s best and most innovative console that’s just going to keep growing and the game itself is phenomenal. The Switch isn’t anywhere close to it’s peak which means neither is Smash

 

[Super Flygon]

Update: Ultimate sold 12.08 million in December alone, with 3.17 million in Japan and 8.91 million overseas. As of this post, 26.7% (8) voted 10-15 million, 36.7% (11) voted 15-20, 16.7% voted 20-25, and 20% (6) voted above 25. Thankfully no one voted for below 10 (or below 5), and based on these launch numbers it's apparent Ultimate will blow past 15 million and become the best selling Smash entry ever. OP will also be updated with Ultimate's sales and updates for the Wii U and 3DS entries.

Edit: Super Flygon , it appears your 10 million end of year prediction turned out to be conservative! It's definitely amazing how we can go from the Wii U version's pitiful sales to Ultimate over doubling its lifetime sales in mere weeks. Truly incredible.

I was certainly shocked and happy to see it reach over 12 million just in December (that being said I have changed my vote to now be the 20M-25M range as opposed to the 15M-20M range.

Though I don't expect Smash Ultimate to reach 25M in its lifetime, I do think 20M should be the floor at this point. Wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong, although Smash usually doesn't have as good legs as 3D Mario, Mario Kart, etc.

 

[IronTed]

12 million in December alone, huh? I'd say we probably got at least another 2 to 4 million in January, after launch.

I think that's too much, given that post-holiday drops are always very sharp. Based on other evergreens it should definitely move a fair amount next quarter though.

I was certainly shocked and happy to see it reach over 12 million just in December (that being said I have changed my vote to now be the 20M-25M range as opposed to the 15M-20M range.

Though I don't expect Smash Ultimate to reach 25M in its lifetime, I do think 20M should be the floor at this point. Wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong, although Smash usually doesn't have as good legs as 3D Mario, Mario Kart, etc.

I'm in agreement. I really don't see it breaking 25. As amazing as that would be, it's a very high bar that few Nintendo games have accomplished. But 20 is definitely doable. I think it will end up the second best selling Switch game when it's all said and done (Odyssey getting a sequel will hurt its legs, Pokémon being almost annual means none will get up there, etc.), absent something really weird happening.


This is a general question for anyone, but now that we have launch month/quarter numbers, perhaps a new poll with more specific ranges (in other words instead of 15-20 million it would be 15-18 million and on from there) would be a good idea? Or a new thread altogether (Kinda leaning towards this)? Open to suggestions of all kinds.

 

[Super Flygon]

Nintendo updated their sales figures recently and Ultimate has vaulted to 13.81 million, surpassing Brawl and becoming not only the best selling Smash Bros. game, but also the best selling fighting game of all time!

Smash 3DS and Wii U inched up to 9.49 million and 5.36 million respectively. Brawl inched up to 13.30 million, but it was nowhere near enough to stop Ultimate. Time for someone to update the first post!

It's definitely safe to say Ultimate will cross 20 million in its lifetime.

Funny how the worst selling Smash Bros. game is succeeded by the best selling one. I guess that should be expected when you go from Wii U to Switch.

 

[Diddy Kong]

It will at least cross 15 million, that am certain of.

 

[Super Flygon]

It will at least cross 15 million, that am certain of.

Yeah, 15M is guaranteed to happen either Q2 or Q3 of this year. Inclined to believe it could be Q2 because of Joker and the possibility of a second paid DLC character around E3.

 

[IronTed]

Yeah, 15M is guaranteed to happen either Q2 or Q3 of this year. Inclined to believe it could be Q2 because of Joker and the possibility of a second paid DLC character around E3.

Agreed. During Q1 it sold 1.73 million, it needs only 1.19 million, and DLC will help. It's also possible that Nintendo will drop a Switch revision next month, which could further help that goal. I must say I'm feeling good about my 20-25 million vote.

Also I'll update the OP again with the new numbers, thanks for posting them and saving me the time lol.

 

[Super Flygon]

Agreed. During Q1 it sold 1.73 million, it needs only 1.19 million, and DLC will help. It's also possible that Nintendo will drop a Switch revision next month, which could further help that goal. I must say I'm feeling good about my 20-25 million vote.

Also I'll update the OP again with the new numbers, thanks for posting them and saving me the time lol.

I doubt Nintendo will announce a Switch revision next month (I don't rule out one getting released this year, but can't see it being announced next month).

Still, you're probably right that the DLC does help. 15M should happen this quarter. Might even surpass Odyssey (at least temporarily).

 

[IronTed]

I doubt Nintendo will announce a Switch revision next month (I don't rule out one getting released this year, but can't see it being announced next month).

We'll know in roughly a week or so (any revision would be announced shortly before release). There have been numerous stories claiming one is coming this year, and although I remain skeptical of specifics, I still believe one is coming this year. I don't care either way though, I'm satisfied with mine.

Still, you're probably right that the DLC does help. 15M should happen this quarter. Might even surpass Odyssey (at least temporarily).

Never considered that actually, but yes, it actually may surpass Odyssey this year. If it does surpass Odyssey in the next quarter or two, do you expect it to stay ahead or fall behind?

 

[Super Flygon]

They'd be much better off releasing a revision during the holidays, so I'd say a revision would be announced in August at the earliest (look at the 2DS and New 3DS).

I do think Odyssey could get ahead again if Ultimate does surpass it soon, but it could go either way. Definitely expecting Odyssey to beat it in the end if there is no more major 3D Mario game on Switch.

 

[IronTed]

Those were still not big timespans (roughly a month and a half) and were not very significant revisions either. While staggered launches make the comparisons less than clean, more important revisions like the 3DS XL, DS Lite, DSi, etc never took more than 2 months (only exception in the past decade would be the New 2DS XL) to launch in their first country (of course some had to wait a while like the US for the New 3DS XL). If the Switch revision is holiday then it would be announced after August, not before. At this point it's moot however, upon further research and reflection I've changed my mind. We're near where a June release would have to be announced very soon and there aren't any rumblings supporting that. That's what I get for overanalyzing software schedules I guess.

I agree on your second point completely. An Odyssey sequel would practically assure Ultimate finishes ahead, but if not then it will be close one way or the other.

 

[Super Flygon]

Just thought I'd pop in to say Ultimate has reached 14.74 million copies and Smash 3DS has reached 9.52 million as of June 30. This puts Ultimate just under 3DS/Wii U combined (will surpass next quarter). Bit surprised Ult didn't reach 15 million this past quarter, but still great sales.

 

[IronTed]

Edited OP, have been extremely busy last week so I was completely unable to check until just a few minutes ago (thanks Super Flygon for the consistent updates). And yeah, slightly surprised it didn't break 15 million, though in the end it's still very impressive as only Mario Kart outsold it during the quarter. The legs are here to stay it seems.

Another interesting fact. Last quarter Ultimate shipped 920k, Odyssey shipped 500k. The latter is only ahead by 210k, so it's very likely that Ultimate will surpass it next quarter. I think it's safe to say Ultimate will end as the Switch's 2nd or 3rd best selling game when it's all said and done.

 

[IronTed]

OP updated, also we got some sell-through which is nice. Ultimate now officially broke 15 million. Now the wait for 20 million.

 

[Super Flygon]

20 million is pretty much locked down at this point (though I don't expect that until probably Q2 2020). I honestly think Ultimate could reach 25 million in its lifetime (nearly double Brawl). I don't see it becoming the Switch's best selling game ever (MK is a beast), but I could see it maintaining second place in the end.

 

[Mogisthelioma]

So, Ultimate is officially the best selling fighting game of all time. I have no doubt that it will eventually break 20 million, especially considering the unparalleled success of the Switch.

 

[Super Flygon]

Nearly 2 million added to Ultimate's total over the holidays! With DLC continuing even past this year, Ultimate should easily reach 20 million this year. I can actually see it reach 30 million in its lifetime (originally voted for 20M-25M way back when), but I still don't see it being Switch's best selling title (perhaps MK8 with 40 million). Great sales, anyways!

 

[MrGameguycolor]

Can I change my vote... lol

 

[Super Flygon]

Another update! While Smash Wii U didn't move at all, Smash 3DS notched up slightly.

Ultimate jumped by over 1 million last quarter to 18.84 million! Getting really close to 20 million! Might reach it in the second quarter. If not, definitely in quarter 3! Impressive that it will be well over 20 million after just 2 years on the market and still more content coming. I wonder if it will reach 30 million! Won't surpass Mario Kart and actually I think AC might steal the second place slot from Smash.

 

[Super Flygon]

Time for yet another update!

Ultimate has reached 19.99 million as of June 30, 2020! So ridiculously close to 20 million. Technically, I'm sure it has reached 20M now. Looks like it lost the silver medal to AC though.

Definitely could see Ultimate reach 30 million in its lifetime. I do think it could drop to fourth best selling Switch game though, losing to Zelda.

No new updates for Smash 3DS and Wii U (and all 3DS and Wii U games actually). I'd say their sales are nearly final.

 

[Perkilator]

Time for yet another update!

Ultimate has reached 19.99 million as of June 30, 2020! So ridiculously close to 20 million. Technically, I'm sure it has reached 20M now. Looks like it lost the silver medal to AC though.

19.99 million being “ridiculously close” to 20M is the understatement of Ultiamte’s whole lifespan.

And apparently Nintendo’s profits jumped 400%. I wonder if Nintendo will want more Ultimate DLC despite Sakurai stating that Vol. 2 would be the end. (Not that I’m saying they will.)

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Call me crazy, but I'm going to go with 40 million. All the DLC ain't out yet and physical copies of the game outsold the number of Gamecube units that were sold. So I'm banking on 40 million.

 

[Super Flygon]

19.99 million being “ridiculously close” to 20M is the understatement of Ultiamte’s whole lifespan.

And apparently Nintendo’s profits jumped 400%. I wonder if Nintendo will want more Ultimate DLC despite Sakurai stating that Vol. 2 would be the end. (Not that I’m saying they will.)

I wouldn't expect much more after Vol. 2, but I do think we could at least see an echo fighter pass and maybe some more stages.

 

[Super Flygon]

I never actually posted here with the Smash Bros sales update for September 30, 2020 (posted by Nintendo back on November 5)!

Ultimate is now at 21.10 million as of September 30, 2020. With the year end update coming on Feb 1, 2021, how much do you guys think Ultimate will be at by the end of the year? I think it could be around 23 or even 24 million. Would be cool if it reaches 25 million, but I don't think that will be reached until Q1 2021.

Even so, that is pretty incredible because originally I thought it would take the games whole lifetime to reach 25 million. Instead, it will reach that in a little over 2 years! By the end of next year, the game will probably be around 28 million and then definitely cross 30 million in 2022. I think by the end of 2022 (maybe even end of next year, depending on when all DLC finishes), we will see a Complete Edition of Ultimate released, containing all pieces of DLC. Probably sold at more than the usual $60, but definitely not the price of the base game and all DLC. Maybe $80?

I don't think anyone predicted the game would sell over 30 million in its lifetime, but its well on its way. Might even reach 40 million, which would make this one game have almost as much lifetime sales as all Smash games put together!

Also, Smash 3DS & Wii U saw updates, I think. Looks like they notched up slightly, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Mapusaurus]

I never actually posted here with the Smash Bros sales update for September 30, 2020 (posted by Nintendo back on November 5)!

Ultimate is now at 21.10 million as of September 30, 2020. With the year end update coming on Feb 1, 2021, how much do you guys think Ultimate will be at by the end of the year? I think it could be around 23 or even 24 million. Would be cool if it reaches 25 million, but I don't think that will be reached until Q1 2021.

Even so, that is pretty incredible because originally I thought it would take the games whole lifetime to reach 25 million. Instead, it will reach that in a little over 2 years! By the end of next year, the game will probably be around 28 million and then definitely cross 30 million in 2022. I think by the end of 2022 (maybe even end of next year, depending on when all DLC finishes), we will see a Complete Edition of Ultimate released, containing all pieces of DLC. Probably sold at more than the usual $60, but definitely not the price of the base game and all DLC. Maybe $80?

I don't think anyone predicted the game would sell over 30 million in its lifetime, but its well on its way. Might even reach 40 million, which would make this one game have almost as much lifetime sales as all Smash games put together!

Also, Smash 3DS & Wii U saw updates, I think. Looks like they notched up slightly, if I'm not mistaken.

I would be surprised if it sells that much seeing as the sales are likely flatting out