I don't like him and I don't see him as likely and as for the poll we have absoloutly no idea why Sakurai chose those suggestions so it can't really be used as evidence for anything except saying that 2 or 3 people in Japan wanted him in.
if he gets to say why he dislikes takamaru, I get to say why I think takamaru will get in:
popularity- takamaru has most of his popularity in japan, and is recently gaining his own fanbase in america due to the wonders of imports and the internet. nazo no murasame joh was one of the most popular and early FDS games in japan, and the best-selling famicom mini game. it was the sister game to zelda, and just as popular in japan, but never caught on, because westerners in the 80's were too ignorant to learn about japanese culture. takamaru was one of the most requested characters to appear in brawl in the japanese polls, and the polls have never let us down. the only character who didn't get on the poll was sonic, which is odd, since sakurai said himself he was the most requested character. and yes, pokemon trainer was technically on the list, but only a specific poketrainer, steven stone.
uniqueness- judging by what we've seen so far, it seems that sakurai seems to care a lot more about uniqueness this time around. I can point this out by deoxys' pokeballification. it just confused me why deoxys was pokeball'd. it seemed like they considered him, since sakurai said himself deoxys was a very popular pokemon. and deoxys was one of the most unique pokemon avilable, having transformation powers. so how could he have been pokeball'd? well soon, sakurai smacked me with the answer a while later: pokemon trainer. from the moment I read how he fought, I instantly figured out he was the reason why deoxys was crammed into a pokeball. instead of transforming, he switches out pokemon, allowing for more uniqueness and fanservice.
now comes the part where takamaru-kun comes in: takamaru is a samurai. in fact, being a samurai is the main thing that taka has going for him. yes, he has ninja powers, magic attacks, etc, but the main point is that he's a samurai. and samurai have yet to be done in smash. now, taka had some obvious competition in the form of samurai goroh. He was the second-running for a popular, yet underrepped series. he had much popularity, and is captain falcon's rival. he seemed too perfect NOT to be in brawl. yet, he was one of the first to suffer the assist trophy fate. but how? simple: takamaru killed him (metaphoriclly). I suppose sakurai relized this game aint big enough for 2 samurai (3, if you count lyn, but you know what happened to her.)
and takamaru had more going for him: not only was he a samurai, he had his own franchise/game, and had even more abilities in the form of fireballs, invisibility, lighting, shuriken, etc. not to mention he was a lot more popular in japan (where most of F-zero's fanbase lies.)
it just seems to genius not to put in. honestly, if taka doesn't make it in smash after all this, I'd be very shocked.