Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[RandomAce]

It's funny, but why is Incineroar jumping out?

It’s because Incineroar isn’t shown in the leak, and is probably not playable despite many insiders apparently saying that they’ve heard about Incineroar being in Smash.

“<

 

[Luigi The President]

After living through Sassy Geno I'm cynical of "arguments for both sides"
More willing to believe it as faked.

But that most XPNC made last night...

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Does anyone have any idea if Mario is going to be in this game? I haven't seen a reveal for him yet :/

I've never heard of such an obscure character, why would he be possibly be playable in Smash? Bubsy is far more iconic and deserving.

 

[Graizen]

I will say something in regards to this-
It definitely DEFINITELY seems like sources such as Gamexplain know more than they're letting on.
GameXplain's videos on the leak have been very dismissive They also usually do discussion videos for topics like this, but they haven't done one.

I feel like they probably know for sure the validity of this leak and are trying to push it under the rug as much as possible.

And why put it under the rug if it is a fake?
Normaly people just debunk fast.
This time the "big guys" are all hidden. Why?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

All the ****ting on Incineroar and Steve are what make me hope this leak is fake.

That wouldn't be fair to the people who all wanted those characters, people who weren't toxic like those your talking about.

 

[Sigran101]

I'm on team maybe leaning towards team fake. I go back and forth which way I'm leaning, but it's really hard to believe there are 5 more unique newcomers. That said, there's a lot of suspicious stuff about this leak, although there are cracks. I really want it to be true, but that makes me believe it less.

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

So what's the consensus at, at this point

Literally the exact same as before.

At this rate, unless ACP speak up or nintendo makes a direct, nothing will change.

 

[Noipoi]

It’s because Incineroar isn’t shown in the leak, and is probably not playable despite many insiders apparently saying that they’ve heard about Incineroar being in Smash.

“<

oh...
okay...
now i'm sad again...

 

[Diem]

Prediction: Final Smash Direct on Nov. 7 or 8; every remaining unknown detail about the game will be shared.

Then, the last of the Smash news will be public, and the galaxy will be at peace.

 

[Ring-a-Sheep]

Guys i just realized something, new leak similar to the old ESRB leak, people seeing characters in the clouds, the community being split on if its real or not, people pointing out the minor issues with the leak. History is repeating itself.

The Ouroboros continues to eat its own tail

 

[Zerp]

What I'm really wondering is how on earth has Smashboards not crashed yet? This is highly unnatural, yet for some strange reason this miracle has been overshadowed in the public eye by the Grinch.

So what's the consensus at, at this point

I don't think there is one, it's got a lot of evidence for it but nothing truly 100% conclusive and it's got a lot of things making people not believe it, and it seems like nobody can agree on which parts mean more than the other parts lol

 

[Blu99]

Mario's a verg character, he's deconfirmed..

Looks like my son won't be getting Ultimate for Christmas...

 

[Baskerville]

I've just been watching from the sidelines but I have to say, whether or not this is real, I haven't had this much fun reading through a speculation thread since the ESRB leak.

 

[Iridium]

So what's the consensus at, at this point

That we've all gone insane. That "leak" was waiting for a fire to jump in.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So has anything actually happened or are we just in the stage where all the excited people are gone and it's only the angry people left?

 

[Graizen]

xpnc said:
Yeah it's the craziest person in the world going out of their way to make incredibly boring cardboard cut-out models using promotional material from the upcoming Grinch movie because he's thinking 47 steps ahead and knows that both Bandai-Namco and Universal studios contract the same obscure French marketing company. To this end, he then got himself an office, printed out the name of an employee of said company, and haphazardly half blurred out the name because, once again, he's some kind of super genius beyond the mental capacities of mortal man and he knew that the internet's crack team of cybersleuths would find his red-herring name in seconds.

This absolute Einstein of social engineering also happens to moonlight as an expert artist and after presumably spending hours carefully cutting and pasting characters from the Smash poster, he then went out of his way to produce 7 more drawings of his own with obscure elements like vines for Isaac that hardly anyone would be able to make out, and then, for the fun of it, he saw to making a completely unique drawing of the blank version of Battlefield just because he could. He made sure that this fake roster of his perfectly mirrored one posted on 4chan last month by someone whose first language clearly isn't English because he knew that people would immediately make the connection to the French marketing company that he is pretending produced this image. The fact that 5 new characters lines up with the 5 missing stages from Corocoro was all part of his master plan. He also made sure this coincided with Nintendo renewing relevant trademarks.

The lengths you have to go to believe that this is all an incredibly elaborate leak would make this man one of the most intelligent people to ever walk the Earth. Apparently he knew where people would look at every turn, making him at the minimum more competent than the entire government of Saudi Arabia when it comes to fakery.

I suggest you think about which outcome is the most likely here

 

[Pazzo.]

I don't think anyone's actually arguing for the banner itself (aside from some background details), what people are mainly concerned with is the backstory seemingly not as watertight as would imply.

For me the biggest thing keeping me on the fence is the name. We now know who the guy is, where he works, and I'm sure if we dug any more we could find his favorite flavor of baguette.

The name was not hidden very well, which presents three scenarios:
1. Guy who leaked the content is an idiot.
2. Guy wants us to find the guy who works in France.

Both can be used on either side of the debate and isn't conclusive. Remember,

The Grinch will make or break this.

 

[Nekoo]

And why put it under the rug if it is a fake?
Normaly people just debunk fast.
This time the "big guys" are all hidden. Why?

Actually literally ALL of the "big guys" came forward and said it was fake.
But literally no one suddenly believe them and throw **** and death threat at them.

So they just decided to shut up.

 

[Luigi The President]

50/50- real or fake.
Team real goes by "no one would be crazy enough to fake this, also **** the Insiders, they don't want to tell us what they know!!!111!!"
Team fake goes by "But you don't know the dark side of the forces, also we have Serebii and every insiders ever by our side, even Vergeben"

It's a civil war.

Just glad we've thrown out the "BUT THATS TOO MANY NEWCOMERS" point and are now focusing on logistical points

 

[CosmicQuark]

I will say something in regards to this-
It definitely DEFINITELY seems like sources such as Gamexplain know more than they're letting on.
GameXplain's videos on the leak have been very dismissive They also usually do discussion videos for topics like this, but they haven't done one.

I feel like they probably know for sure the validity of this leak and are trying to push it under the rug as much as possible.

I can see it going both ways. And in both cases, they know more than they're letting on.

a) It's fake, and they have information that definitively shows it would have to be fake (e.g., more than a character that's supposed to be in not being in, so like... a character that's in that can't be in)

b) It's real, and they have information that they assume means it would probably be fake (e.g.,, a character that's supposed to be in not being in, which as I said above, doesn't definitively show that it's fake)

Obviously there are more possible scenarios (including they know nothing), but these I find the most likely depending on the scenario. But unless they or any of the insiders want to provide any non-trivial information, or more than just silly speculation, we're left not knowing until something pops up.

 

[Noipoi]

Looks like my son won't be getting Ultimate for Christmas...

Mario hasn't been in a game since Super Luigi Sluggers, he's a party member from Luigi rpg that no one remembers, and now that he's owned by Microsoft there's no way he'd get in.

 

[Untouch]

So what's the consensus at, at this point

Personally I'm leaning really close to fake, but still on the fence.
I don't really see any huge concrete arguments for this being real, and it seems to hinge on whether or not the leaker is working with both Illumination and Nintendo right now in order to have access to both materials. It can be true of course, but I cannot confirm this at all, so I'm on #TeamWait.

 

[KingofKoopas]

50/50- real or fake.
Team real goes by "no one would be crazy enough to fake this, also **** the Insiders, they don't want to tell us what they know!!!111!!"
Team fake goes by "But you don't know the dark side of the forces, also we have Serebii and every insiders ever by our side, even Vergeben"

It's a civil war.

And then theres a third side of people who either refuse to take a side, arent convinced either way, wanna watch the chaos, or are prepping cabins in the middle of nowhere to hide from any further spoilers til december. I am part of that last category.

 

[ThePokéYoshi]

Honestly at this point, whether real or fake, I just can't wait to look back at this thread in a few weeks

 

[JellieBomb]

just gonna make a comment on this one.The rough part isnt moving characters and pasting them somewhere. Everybody with decent graphical skills can do such a thing. But the really rough part is to keep the background accurate. Especially considering the fact that on one of the pictures, the entire background without characters on it was presented. This is a huge deal because somebody would have to take the time to produce himself the missing parts of the stage, the clouds, the lightings and so on. This is not something you just cut and paste from one point to another. And making renders of the newcomers in an artstyle that fits the already existing characters' look is also something that you won't just do that easily. Just consider the time someone has to put into this entire leak to produce it himself. Hard to say how many hours/days you will need to be able to produce a fake leak like this.

Also besides arguing about the editing that has to be done, there are a lot of other questions you should also ask yourself:
1. Why would someone even try to move many characters? If you are capable of drawing any character in the artstyle of the Ultimate banner, you probably would try to make renders that fit pretty easy into already existing gaps.
2. Why bother to show a picture with only the background without any characters? Completely unnecessary work you do. Unless you don't need to do the work because you already have access to the background without characters, then it's easy to just add it in case anyone is doubting the leak.
3. Why hide a name in the corner of the image? Also not really something, a fake leaker would put any effort into.
4.Why hide the name so poorly that people can still figure out what's written there? Furthermore why put a name of a person into the leak who has a connection to a company working with Bandai Namco?
5. Why even bother making a Grinch movie render?
These are already 5 things I highly doubt any fake leaker would put any effort into. There exists too much information alongside the actual character reveals on the banner and trying to debunk this will be much harder than some people think. If I try to put myself into the position of a fake leaker, I would definitely only try to make one good, kinda possible/realistic picture without any context. And of course I would go with something likely and avoid anything that seems unlikely. At this point I want to throw in some names: Would you let Incineroar out after people are almost convinced he is in the game? On the other side: Would you put Chorus Kid into your fake leak alongside safe guesses like Ken and Shadow?

I do understand that people are being sceptical about any leak but one point some people already brought up: Do not forget people who wanted to debunk the ESRB leak by arguing about Shulk having the face of Little Mac.

These questions are great and are more or less what I've been asking myself. I'm leaning towards the leak being real because of these strange coincidences/hints/whatever. To me, it's not a question of "is it possible that someone could remake the banner background", but rather those random details hidden throughout the leaked image. Sure, the leaker could have done his homework and found some random French design/print studio and a dude on LinkedIn that's related. But it seems more likely that we have a genuine "oops" via Snapchat.

 

[Luigi The President]

xpnc said:
Yeah it's the craziest person in the world going out of their way to make incredibly boring cardboard cut-out models using promotional material from the upcoming Grinch movie because he's thinking 47 steps ahead and knows that both Bandai-Namco and Universal studios contract the same obscure French marketing company. To this end, he then got himself an office, printed out the name of an employee of said company, and haphazardly half blurred out the name because, once again, he's some kind of super genius beyond the mental capacities of mortal man and he knew that the internet's crack team of cybersleuths would find his red-herring name in seconds.

This absolute Einstein of social engineering also happens to moonlight as an expert artist and after presumably spending hours carefully cutting and pasting characters from the Smash poster, he then went out of his way to produce 7 more drawings of his own with obscure elements like vines for Isaac that hardly anyone would be able to make out, and then, for the fun of it, he saw to making a completely unique drawing of the blank version of Battlefield just because he could. He made sure that this fake roster of his perfectly mirrored one posted on 4chan last month by someone whose first language clearly isn't English because he knew that people would immediately make the connection to the French marketing company that he is pretending produced this image. The fact that 5 new characters lines up with the 5 missing stages from Corocoro was all part of his master plan. He also made sure this coincided with Nintendo renewing relevant trademarks.

The lengths you have to go to believe that this is all an incredibly elaborate leak would make this man one of the most intelligent people to ever walk the Earth. Apparently he knew where people would look at every turn, making him at the minimum more competent than the entire government of Saudi Arabia when it comes to fakery.

I suggest you think about which outcome is the most likely here

Posts should not just be someone elses quote

 

[Graizen]

Actually literally ALL of the "big guys" came forward and said it was fake.
But literally no one suddenly believe them and throw **** and death threat at them.

So they just decided to shut up.

Here's the problem.
I can say it is a fake as well!
But i can't say why!

You understand now genius?

 

[kirbsmash]

is this the devil's work?
ALL HAIL LEAKS!

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I’m still assuming fake but

But one reason I’m sure it’s real is because pretty much next to all of you are underestimating them

I think it is possible to reveal 7 more characters before decemeber 7th at this point

And the rumor is two directs

First direct shows 1-2 uniques and possible throw in either ken or shadow or both

3-the rest in the second smash direct if still not there yet vga can reveal the last one(s) along with the “*name* is on the way” character.l logical it could be sora for that one

 

[Pazzo.]

xpnc said:
Yeah it's the craziest person in the world going out of their way to make incredibly boring cardboard cut-out models using promotional material from the upcoming Grinch movie because he's thinking 47 steps ahead and knows that both Bandai-Namco and Universal studios contract the same obscure French marketing company. To this end, he then got himself an office, printed out the name of an employee of said company, and haphazardly half blurred out the name because, once again, he's some kind of super genius beyond the mental capacities of mortal man and he knew that the internet's crack team of cybersleuths would find his red-herring name in seconds.

This absolute Einstein of social engineering also happens to moonlight as an expert artist and after presumably spending hours carefully cutting and pasting characters from the Smash poster, he then went out of his way to produce 7 more drawings of his own with obscure elements like vines for Isaac that hardly anyone would be able to make out, and then, for the fun of it, he saw to making a completely unique drawing of the blank version of Battlefield just because he could. He made sure that this fake roster of his perfectly mirrored one posted on 4chan last month by someone whose first language clearly isn't English because he knew that people would immediately make the connection to the French marketing company that he is pretending produced this image. The fact that 5 new characters lines up with the 5 missing stages from Corocoro was all part of his master plan. He also made sure this coincided with Nintendo renewing relevant trademarks.

The lengths you have to go to believe that this is all an incredibly elaborate leak would make this man one of the most intelligent people to ever walk the Earth. Apparently he knew where people would look at every turn, making him at the minimum more competent than the entire government of Saudi Arabia when it comes to fakery.

I suggest you think about which outcome is the most likely here

Hate to be that guy but this proves that if fake, the leaker follows Smash speculation closely and may use 4chan.

(Assuming that this is one guy and not a group, but that's almost a conspiracy theory.)

 

[Blu99]

 

[Luigi The President]

Here's the problem.
I can say it is a fake as well!
But i can't say why!

You understand now genius?

You're not an industry insider who has leaked things in the past
Different situation

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

What I'm really wondering is how on earth has Smashboards not crashed yet? This is highly unnatural, yet for some strange reason this miracle has been overshadowed in the public eye by the Grinch.

Our servers grew three sizes that day.

 

[Nekoo]

Here's the problem.
I can say it is a fake as well!
But i can't say why!

You understand now genius?

Well the difference is that you're not a game journalist with +10 experience and insider source at Nintendo and keep making absolute weird "Lucky guess" that keep happenings again and again now are you? "genius"?

 

[Noipoi]

WHAT IS A LEAK?
A MISERABLE PILE OF SECRET CHARACTERS???

 

[Iko MattOrr]

just gonna make a comment on this one.The rough part isnt moving characters and pasting them somewhere. Everybody with decent graphical skills can do such a thing. But the really rough part is to keep the background accurate. Especially considering the fact that on one of the pictures, the entire background without characters on it was presented. This is a huge deal because somebody would have to take the time to produce himself the missing parts of the stage, the clouds, the lightings and so on. This is not something you just cut and paste from one point to another. And making renders of the newcomers in an artstyle that fits the already existing characters' look is also something that you won't just do that easily. Just consider the time someone has to put into this entire leak to produce it himself. Hard to say how many hours/days you will need to be able to produce a fake leak like this.

Also besides arguing about the editing that has to be done, there are a lot of other questions you should also ask yourself:
1. Why would someone even try to move many characters? If you are capable of drawing any character in the artstyle of the Ultimate banner, you probably would try to make renders that fit pretty easy into already existing gaps.
2. Why bother to show a picture with only the background without any characters? Completely unnecessary work you do. Unless you don't need to do the work because you already have access to the background without characters, then it's easy to just add it in case anyone is doubting the leak.
3. Why hide a name in the corner of the image? Also not really something, a fake leaker would put any effort into.
4.Why hide the name so poorly that people can still figure out what's written there? Furthermore why put a name of a person into the leak who has a connection to a company working with Bandai Namco?
5. Why even bother making a Grinch movie render?
These are already 5 things I highly doubt any fake leaker would put any effort into. There exists too much information alongside the actual character reveals on the banner and trying to debunk this will be much harder than some people think. If I try to put myself into the position of a fake leaker, I would definitely only try to make one good, kinda possible/realistic picture without any context. And of course I would go with something likely and avoid anything that seems unlikely. At this point I want to throw in some names: Would you let Incineroar out after people are almost convinced he is in the game? On the other side: Would you put Chorus Kid into your fake leak alongside safe guesses like Ken and Shadow?

I do understand that people are being sceptical about any leak but one point some people already brought up: Do not forget people who wanted to debunk the ESRB leak by arguing about Shulk having the face of Little Mac.

There is a blank version of the background that was used in the E3 presentation; and the background in the leak has inconsistencies too compared to the official one.

1. because many banner leaks were debunked in the past with the excuse that when a character is added, they move everything, and in the fake leaks they didn't. Moving all the characters makes the leak more credible

2. Since everybody forgot about the existence of the blank background from E3, showing the blank background would serve as a fake proof that the person who made the leak had access to material not avaliable to public.

3 and 4. because the leaker wanted people to find that name, because the backstory behind that name would have made the leak seem more believable.

5. The Grinch renders already existed, they have been found, he didn't make those. They are put in the leak to make it more believable as well: since it's a company that works with promotional material for several different companies, having works unrelated to Smash on the table only make the leak stronger. Those renders were just as obscure as the blank battlefield picture, so using those renders would have been a way to trick people into thinking that those pictures were only accessible by insiders.

I think that those desperate attempts to put as many "proofs" as possible in the leak is another red flag, this already happend with the Karate Joe leak and also with Ken, even though the ken leak has not been debunked yet, they used the same trick, "look, the shadow glitch is also present in the original, a fake leaker would have never noticed that little detail"; people usually believe more in stuff like that so maybe fake leakers dig for those details on purpose to make their fake leaks more credible... not saying that Ken is fake (it can still be fake though, nothing is 100% confirmed yet and I wouldn't be surprised at all if that turns out to be just a very good photoshop work).

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

So has anything actually happened or are we just in the stage where all the excited people are gone and it's only the angry people left?

Not much is going on. Things are happening on both sides, but nothing's really sticking either way.

 

[SuperSmashLover]

I've gotta ask a quick question.

Why would Simon and Richter get revealed together, yet Ryu and Ken not be revealed together?

Quite a few echos (I believe it was 3 out of the currently officially confirmed 6) were revealed in the original wave of information that came with the "Everyone is Here" trailer.

Here's a hot take, which i hope is horribly wrong; What if Ken was actually the false leak the whole time?

I know, it sounds ridiculous, but compared to Dark Samus and Chrome, does Ken come across as a "surprise" character to anyone that would warrant his own independent announcement?

 

[TheCJBrine]

Y'know, so many insiders knowing the same thing is what gets me.

For a company trying so hard to keep their game under wraps, they sure do a crappy job. Why give employees info at all? I guess their sources could be from the translation team or something, but gosh.

 

[Gothitelle]

xpnc said:
Yeah it's the craziest person in the world going out of their way to make incredibly boring cardboard cut-out models using promotional material from the upcoming Grinch movie because he's thinking 47 steps ahead and knows that both Bandai-Namco and Universal studios contract the same obscure French marketing company. To this end, he then got himself an office, printed out the name of an employee of said company, and haphazardly half blurred out the name because, once again, he's some kind of super genius beyond the mental capacities of mortal man and he knew that the internet's crack team of cybersleuths would find his red-herring name in seconds.

This absolute Einstein of social engineering also happens to moonlight as an expert artist and after presumably spending hours carefully cutting and pasting characters from the Smash poster, he then went out of his way to produce 7 more drawings of his own with obscure elements like vines for Isaac that hardly anyone would be able to make out, and then, for the fun of it, he saw to making a completely unique drawing of the blank version of Battlefield just because he could. He made sure that this fake roster of his perfectly mirrored one posted on 4chan last month by someone whose first language clearly isn't English because he knew that people would immediately make the connection to the French marketing company that he is pretending produced this image. The fact that 5 new characters lines up with the 5 missing stages from Corocoro was all part of his master plan. He also made sure this coincided with Nintendo renewing relevant trademarks.

The lengths you have to go to believe that this is all an incredibly elaborate leak would make this man one of the most intelligent people to ever walk the Earth. Apparently he knew where people would look at every turn, making him at the minimum more competent than the entire government of Saudi Arabia when it comes to fakery.

I suggest you think about which outcome is the most likely here

You're absolutely underestimating the internet. Or did you miss the Shia Lebouf flag fiasco? You would be dumb to go through the effort of making this blurred fake banner and not bolster your leak with a random employee of a random printing company.