VETERANS:
I've organized veterans into a couple of groups based on how I feel about their chances of returning.
LOCKS:
These characters, all from Brawl and earlier, I feel will be in the game 100%.
and
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All of these characters are extremely important for their respective franchises and are definitely series staples that I'd be shocked if they were to get cut from the game. Mr. Game and Watch, R.O.B., Ness, and Captain Falcon stay because of how they've pretty much become synonymous with Smash Bros., and Charizard and Mewtwo as well because of their massive popularity. Nintendo and Sega are constantly on good terms with each other, so Sonic is gonna be back.
BORDERLINE LOCKS:
I am somewhat skeptical about these Brawl and earlier veterans, but the chances of them returning are very high.
and
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Sheik, despite not appearing in any main series Zelda games other than OoT, has cemented her place in Smash Bros. with her popularity and uniqueness. Her playability in Hyrule Warriors and the costume in BotW also help her chances. Toon Link stays because it's been clear since Brawl that there has to be a Link clone. However, if Link's moveset is updated entirely as most expect, Toon Link will no longer be a clone, and deserves to stay. Lucario is extremely popular, and returned in Smash 4, defying the expectations of quite a few people. In that case, he's definitely welcome back. Jigglypuff isn't as relevant or popular as she used to be back in the 90s and early 2000s, but she's a member of the original 12, and has always come back. Even though the odd case with her in Brawl (only unlockable after Sonic and everyone else is unlocked, no appearance in the SSE) said that she might actually be lower priority than the rest of the original cast, and I may have somewhat of a personal bias against her, she's bound to return. Lucas returning as DLC in Smash 4 was a result of a ton of outcry from fans, and him being excluded once more would lead to more outcry once again. The Mother series has a huge cult following, and many would be upset to see Lucas leave again.
EXTREMELY LIKELY:
I believe these characters that debuted in Smash 4 have extremely high chances of returning.
and
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Rosalina and Bowser Jr. are both very popular characters (Rosalina moreso if I'm not mistaken), have very unique movesets, and are important to the Mario franchise (Bowser Jr. and the Koopalings have been around for quite a while and are recognizable as Bowser's main lackeys, Rosalina represents the hugely successful and popular Galaxy games). Little Mac is historically important to Nintendo, and a highly requested character that deserves to stay in the game after being upgraded from an Assist Trophy. Palutena is basically the second protagonist of the Kid Icarus games, and her popularity combined with being from a Sakurai franchise are enough for her to stay. Robin represents Awakening, which was a huge game for Fire Emblem, is popular according to the Heroes poll, and is a very unique FE rep being primarily a magic user rather than a swordsman. You must live under a rock if you don't think Greninja will return. Its massive role in the anime, as well as it placing 1st on the 2016 Pokemon popularity poll in Japan are more than enough to guarantee its return to Smash Bros. Animal Crossing is a massively popular series all over the globe, and Villager is pretty much guaranteed because of that. Tons of people like Shulk and Xenoblade Chronicles, which is why he got into Smash 4 in the first place, and the huge success of the Xenoblade franchise cements his spot in the roster. Mr. Game and Watch and R.O.B. both returned in Smash 4, so Duck Hunt can definitely return in Smash Switch. The dog and duck are extremely recognizable, and represent another important piece of Nintendo history. Nintendo can definitely keep a good relationship with Bandai Namco and Capcom, and tons of people would be clearly upset to see Pac-Man and Mega Man removed from the roster, as they are two of gaming's most beloved and recognizable stars that have been around for decades alongside Mario and Sonic. Sakurai would have clearly lost all common sense if he were to cut Bayonetta, after she won the fighter ballot. Bayonetta 2 and 3 being Nintendo exclusives still helps as well. Cutting Mii Fighters would be like cutting 3 entire fighters. Their inclusion allows players to put any character, no matter how outlandish, into Smash Bros., and they represent the entire Wii era onwards.
PRETTY LIKELY:
Once again, a group of characters that I'm not too sure about, but I feel will likely return to Smash Bros.
and
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Wii Fit Trainer was an extremely odd character that hardly anyone expected to be in Smash Bros., but Sakurai made it happen. The Wii Fit games were very successful, and knowing Sakurai, he's likely to bring this "out-of-left-field" character back. It's very clear that Nintendo has a good relationship with Capcom, who's always willing to do crossover fighting games (Marvel, Tatsunoko, SNK, Tekken), and Ryu is almost always present in them, being basically the poster boy of traditional fighting games. However, Ryu can end up being switched out for a different representative by Capcom such as a Monster Hunter representative, but his importance to gaming as a whole will likely keep him on the roster. Hopefully Nintendo can keep a good relationship with Square Enix, despite Square being very touchy about their IPs and such. However, if they're fine with letting Noctis from FFXV into Tekken, then Cloud can definitely return to the battlefield, especially with him getting the most requests out of every Final Fantasy character in the fighter ballot.
RETURNS:
Like most others, I predict the return of
and
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Wolf was very likely voted for a ton in the ballot, but Bayonetta (and Cloud to an extent) was clearly more popular and got into Smash 4 over Wolf. With the results of the fighter ballot to look at, Sakurai can see how much fans wanted the lycan anti-hero back in Smash Bros., and his return will be greatly accepted, especially if he's given a more unique moveset. Ice Climbers were obviously meant to be in Smash 4, but didn't make the cut because of system limitations. The Switch can definitely handle the Ice Climbers this time around, and nearly everyone wants them to return to the roster.
CUTS:
As you'll notice, there's 5 cuts:
and
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I've decided to cut the first three as separate characters, and decided to make them just alternate costumes, to not have slots wasted by 3 clones again. If Sakurai can't make them have unique movesets, then they're better off as alternate costumes in the vein of Alph and the Koopalings. Doctor Mario being brought back only to get cut entirely once more would be very odd, so a costume would be a compromise. If Mario can wear his doctor outfit in Odyssey and not have different abilities all of a sudden, then it isn't odd for Doc to be a costume and fit in with an updated moveset with Cappy. Dark Pit is literally a clone of Pit. Although I doubt it would happen, if he were to get a unique moveset, I'd be fine with him as a separate character, but he's better off as a costume. Lucina is too popular to cut entirely, but I can't think of any ways to make her unique compared to Marth, so she'll just have to do as a costume, unfortunately.
Roy and Corrin both aren't technically cut, I'll explain what I mean. Rather than choosing one of the two to put in the roster for certain, I've left a blank spot for either one or the other, or a potential newcomer from Fire Emblem. Sakurai has stated that even before adding Corrin as DLC, he felt there were too many representatives for the franchise. The other three (technically 4 with Lucina as a costume) stay for relevance, popularity, and uniqueness, and there's enough room for one more representative from the franchise without it feeling too crammed and over-represented. Personally, I'd pick Roy out of him and Corrin, but the possibility of a new character taking their place is very possible. Because of her clear popularity with the Heroes poll, and how she was an Assist Trophy twice, Lyn could take this slot. Or, we could have a different character from a past game, such as Celica or Alm from Echoes. There's even the very low chance of the protagonist of the next Fire Emblem game taking this slot, but as there is no information on the next game other than it's for the Switch and in development, I'm very doubtful.
NEWCOMERS:
I'll go into depth with each newcomer in this section.
CAPTAIN TOAD:
Toad has always deserved to be in Smash Bros. for quite a while now, being the only member of the main Mario 8 not in Smash Bros. (Mario, Luigi, Peach, Yoshi, Bowser, Donkey Kong, Wario, and Toad), and Captain Toad is far better than just your average Toad. Appearing in the Mario Galaxy games, Super Mario 3D World, and eventually his own spin-off game, Captain Toad is clearly a popular character. He has plenty to work with for a potential moveset from his playable appearances, and can have an interesting playstyle/gimmick with the fact that he's constantly wearing a heavy backpack that weighs him down.
KING K. ROOL:
It's about time Donkey Kong got their third rep. Although I'd be fine with Dixie Kong, I always preferred King K. Rool over her for just a single new rep for DK, and I feel a single new DK rep is more likely than 2. Despite his lack of appearances as of late in the newer Donkey Kong Country games, many people still remember King K. Rool, being the main antagonist of the majority of main series Donkey Kong games, and there has been clearly plenty of fan outcry for his inclusion in Smash to the point that Sakurai had made a Mii costume for him. Although he'd be yet another heavyweight villain, he has plenty of potential for a unique moveset based off of his various boss fights in the Donkey Kong series. If Sakurai can bring retro characters such as Duck Hunt back, then he sure can bring an old villain from an important series back in Smash.
TAKAMARU:
Sakurai has stated that he was definitely considering adding Takamaru to Smash 4, but decided against it because not many people would know who he was. There was even the old questionnaire he did leading up to Melee about Smash 64's development, where he stated that if Takamaru were to appear in another game, he'd definitely put him into Smash Bros. After appearing as an Assist Trophy, having his game released on the eShop in the west, and having an attraction based off of his game in Nintendoland, Takamaru shouldn't be too unfamiliar now to western audiences. He'd perfectly fit the role that Ice Climbers, Pit, and Little Mac all had in the Smash Bros. games they debuted in respectively, a popular retro revival character that fans have asked for (not sure if fans asked for Ice Climbers in Melee but they were retro revival characters anyways). Although he is a swordsman, he has plenty of material to work with from his origin game, and him being a samurai unlike other sword-wielders gives him the potential to have a different style of swordplay than Link or Marth, for example.
BANDANA DEE:
Tons of media for Kirby has shown Bandana Dee as the fourth member of Kirby's quartet of main pals alongside King Dedede and Meta Knight, and he's consistently shown up in the games ever since reappearing in Super Star Ultra. So he's obviously in the running for the fourth slot of the Kirby series. Plus, he's from a Sakurai series, which might get a little bit of priority over some other franchises. Unlike all other characters in Smash Bros., Bandana Dee wields a spear (also a parasol sometimes), which can make for a very interesting and unique moveset.
DECIDUEYE:
In Smash Bros., we already have Charizard, a fire type starter Pokemon, and Greninja, a water type starter Pokemon. Clearly, there's a lack of a grass type starter Pokemon in the game, and Decidueye fits both that role, as well as the role of a representative of the seventh generation of Pokemon games. The likelihood of the eighth generation Pokemon games being released before Smash Switch is very low, with there being a lack of news about those games and the seventh generation just about to end with Zeraora's reveal. In that case, there's still time for a seventh generation representative to be put into Smash Bros., unless another Greninja situation occurs. Regardless, Decidueye has appeared in Pokken Tournament DX as playable, being notably much more popular than the other fully evolved Alolan starters. A moveset based around mostly archery can be very unique as well.
REX (& PYRA):
Sakurai has stated that he really likes Xenoblade Chronicles 2, which was also extremely well received in general just like the original XC. The franchise has become super popular, and definitely deserves a second representative in Smash Bros., specifically from XC2, which has even sold better than the original XC. Rex, the protagonist of XC2, can definitely have a unique moveset in Smash Bros. based around switching blades, drives, and such, with Pyra appearing in some way to help him out with certain moves. As development for the game started as early as 2014, it could definitely be a Greninja situation of sorts.
INKLING:
They're confirmed. ...Yep, that's it.
SPRING MAN:
ARMS is a new IP that has been heavily promoted by Nintendo as a competitive game, and has been fairly successful, garnering a pretty sizable fanbase. Even though support for ARMS is basically over, people will very likely remember ARMS because of the very heavy promotion of it. It was clear that Nintendo wanted it to become a big and popular new IP, so why wouldn't they have a character in Smash Bros.? Being the mascot of the game, Spring Man is the obvious choice, but some of the other characters could appear as alternate costumes. A moveset based around the extendable and customizable arms would be very unique, with weapons such as the elemental gloves, boomerangs, dragons, and poppers that all can be implemented in numerous ways.
MACH RIDER:
Remember when Sakurai had purchased a Vifam mecha figure for mostly the little machine gun it had? He wanted to use it for reference. If anything, he was likely planning on using it for reference for a Smash Bros. newcomer character rather than just a simple Assist Trophy or regular trophy in Smash 5. Why would he go that far just to get a toy model for reference for a non playable character? Out of the possible characters that could use a machine gun, I decided to go with Mach Rider. Sakurai had stated he wanted Mach Rider in the Smash Bros. sequel in his post Smash 64 questionnaire, and likely still wants to put him into a Smash Bros. game eventually. He'd fit the role of "WTF retro character" just like Mr. Game and Watch, R.O.B., and Duck Hunt perfectly, not being expected at all by players. In the case of a moveset, if Sakurai can give the likes of Captain Falcon an entirely original moveset despite only piloting the Blue Falcon in the actual F-Zero games, then he sure can make an original moveset for Mach Rider based around his machine gun.
RAYMAN:
Ubisoft and Nintendo clearly have a very good relationship, and if any 3rd party company's gonna get a rep, it's gonna be them. And who better than Rayman? He was considered iconic enough to get himself, Globox, and Barbara all trophies in Smash 4, despite not being playable. Not to mention, there's the very well received Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle that released just last year, which features the Rabbids, which were originally from a Rayman game. He'll fit right in with the likes of Mario, Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man perfectly, and has a ton of potential for a unique and fun moveset.
