For our first piece, we are doing a two round snake draft on the various Microsoft candidates. This field was already pretty competitive, with a lot of popular suggestions in play. This has only been compounded further with their recent buyouts.
The order for our first snake draft will be as follows.
1.
TCT~Phantom
2. @Sari (aka BC_Guy)
3. @Thirdkoopa
4. @DanganZilla5
5.
Janx_uwu
Anywho, I'll start with the first pick.
Honestly, the Microsoft buyout fixed one of the only two issues people had with Crash's inclusion: whether Activision Blizzard would play ball. With big daddy Microsoft at the helm now, that is no longer a concern. Crash has basically everything possible going for him. He is one of the very few western characters that are also popular in Japan and is generally popular across the globe. The series has a lot of history in gaming as a whole, especially with Crash’s tenure as Sony's mascot. Honestly the only big thing going against him is the fact there is so much competition.
Thirdkoopa:
BC_Guy: I agree as well.
DanganZilla: Agreed.
BC_Guy: Though one possible concern: is Crash still popular in Japan even today?
TCTphantom: Wow, I really took the low hanging fruit.
Janx: I would say the Microsoft buyout helped and hurt the Bandicoot's chances at the same time. While it does make it easier to negotiate with his copyright owners, that also means he has to compete with the rest of the Microsoft picks like you said. But overall solid argument.
TCTphantom: I mean, from the limited perspective we do have on the Japanese speculation scene, they are at worst knowledgeable about how popular Crash is. From my research, at least during Smash Ultimate's DLC lifespan he was one of the few western picks they really talked about.
For me, I think the fan demand is enough to push Crash over the edge. I know someone brought up in the past that plenty of Banjo supporters moved ship once they got the bear and bird in to focus on the bandicoot. Obviously that did not come to pass in Ultimate, but for the future I think it is something to note. His support for instance in Source Gaming's huge poll went up from being in the top ten to outright leading it by a notable margin post Banjo.
DanganZilla: This took the words out of my mouth. I do think some other Microsoft/Bethesda characters will give Crash a run for his money, but that will come later
Thirdkoopa: The biggest question about Crash is if the franchise will continue to be a mainstay or if fans will request him enough. Fan demand is fickle so I'll tackle it from the other angle. Crash had two remakes that did pretty, if not, exceptionally well, but Crash 4 bit the dust pretty quickly (Made its money back, but didn't make much of a splash). Not to mention that despite many fan requests, Crash Team Racing: Nitro-Fueled had its support abandoned pretty quickly.
So, how much is Crash at the forefront of Microsoft's mind for their future plans? Right now, it's up in the air. I think Crash is going to depend on fan demand to sustain both interest in the franchise and to get him in Smash.
TCTphantom: I'd push back on CTR being abandoned. It got a solid 9 months of free content before that point. As for Crash 4, it is hard to outright say how well or poorly it did but the evidence does suggest it at least made its money back. We have not gotten more modern sales figures.
BC_Guy: Also covid is partly to blame for however Crash 4 did since it released during the pandemic.
TCTphantom: We do have interviews from the Act Blizz buyout phase where Microsoft execs did mention Crash specifically, so there is some hope there. I think Microsoft sees value in the IP. Even then and if Crash is dormant, that did not stop them from being game enough to do Banjo
I think that while Crash is not an active rn, he has had a pretty active past few years. Two huge remakes, a new game, and a new mobile game. Sure we did not get anything this year, but it's still too soon to tell how things will go.
So long as his fan demand does not totally dry up between games, I think he still has a great shot despite his strong competition.
Thirdkoopa: Though Nitro-Fueled did receive content for 9 months], it also had a slew of people requesting better online and other feature requests, and unfortunately none of these were filled. It's still hard to say how much of that is dependent on mismanagement over at ActiBlizz.
Fan requests are also an interesting angle - We know that Sonic, Mega Man, and Banjo were all three heavily requested. Unfortunately there's no stats for us to compare directly with Crash.
TCTphantom: We can say at least that during Ultimate, Crash was a big request. Now, it is hard to compare that to other characters, but the closest we can compare is Banjo, who in the midst of the Crash revival Crash was generally not too far behind Banjo. After Banjo opened the door, I think it's safe to say we all saw Crash discussion and requests shoot up even more.
TCTphantom: I can go on for longer, but I think for the sake of brevity we should pass the mic to @BC_Guy.
Thirdkoopa: @BC Guy also agreed on this.
BC_Guy:
Ok so while I do think Crash is the most likely Microsoft rep atm, I'll make a case for another character: Master Chief.Halo is a far bigger series than Crash to the point where it's the Xbox's flagship franchise.
It is true that the Xbox console as a whole isn't too popular in Japan, as a recent Famitsu report from last month showed that only 2.3 million Xbox systems have been sold there in the last 20 years. However from what I have found Halo is pretty popular over there. Halo 3 was the best selling game in Japan that week while Halo Infinite was even shown on a 2021 Famitsu magazine cover. Heck there was even a 2010 anime of it released in Japan and other countries. Also while the Xbox itself isn't too popular over there, PC games are more played there which helps Halo's case since the series is available on PC.
Furthermore, as we've seen with Ultimate, it seems that Nintendo is going for more and more internet-breaking third parties (Sephiroth, Steve, Sora, etc.). Chief absolutely fits the bill for this. Lastly, we've gotten two Microsoft characters already so the foot is already in the door.
TCTphantom: Yeah chief was my second pick.
Thirdkoopa: He was my first <.<
My main concern for Chief was if there was Japanese demand, but that is a solid argument. I think it is safe to say that in a post Steve world especially, the demand for Chief in the west is there.
Thirdkoopa: My only question is how much people love Chief enough to request him. He's certainly beloved, but I feel it'd be a choice more like Steve where it's because of how big and influential Halo is.
TCTphantom: I mean, is that an issue? Whether it's due to people loving Chief or loving the idea of what chief represents, there is that support for chief.
BC_Guy: He's pretty popular. I know Chief regularly is in the top 10 of SourceGaming's yearly smash request polls.
TCTphantom: Also off topic but when Halo Master Chief Collection on switch I just want to do local 4 player co-op. It has no effect on him in smash obviously, but I can dream.
Janx: @Thirdkoopa I would say, in that case, Halo certainly measures up in terms of fan love. The recent Paramount+ show had one of the BIGGEST premiers of the streaming age, if my memory serves me correctly.
BC_Guy: Off topic but the 2022 version of that poll should be releasing in a month or two. Will be interesting to see.
oh yeah that's also true (with the show).
Janx: ah well, just double-checked and it was actually Paramount+'s biggest premiere ever. Still impressive tho.
DanganZilla: My big concern with Chief is that he has no Nintendo history. Now I get that argument has diminished a lot with Cloud and Joker, but still FF had games on the NES and SNES and Persona had Persona Q. But to be fair I think if anyone has the potential to break that rule, it's definitely Chief.
TCTphantom: Yeah, Chief is almost like this Schrodinger's cat of characters: He objectively both does make so much sense and zero sense.
Thirdkoopa: Not a big one, just worth asking since there are so many possible characters to choose from.
BC_Guy: I do think having zero Nintendo presence can hurt a character (which I have in mind for a certain Sega character), though in Chief's case I feel like he's gamebreaking enough to break the rule. Plus technically he is on Nintendo via Fortnite if that somehow counts.
Janx: I think the Nintendo console rule is very silly. With the presence Microsoft has on Nintendo, not to mention the fact that Sakurai has literally promoted the Xbox One on a presents stream before.
Thirdkoopa: How far does that poll extend outside of the states?
BC_Guy: Admittedly it's mainly an English poll so it probably doesn't go out to Japan. Though I imagine other countries like England took it.
TCTphantom: Anywho before we go too far off topic, let's toss @Thirdkoopa the mic.
Thirdkoopa: @TCTphantom This sums up Master Chief pretty perfectly. There's a lot of reasons for him to get included in not just Smash, but frankly any gaming crossover about gaming history. He's important, iconic, and has many things going for him, but he could get glossed over in favor of other characters.
TCTphantom: So, which Bethesda pick will Thirdkoopa choose? find out next time on Dragon Ball Z.
Thirdkoopa:
DanganZilla: Aw that's my first pick.
Thirdkoopa: (I was initially going to pick Doomguy as my #2 lol).
DanganZilla: I can still add some things though.
TCTphantom: Honestly from what limited research I could do into Japanese speculation, Dovakhin was one of the other big western names in Japan.
Janx: thx for including a picture lol, I know nothing of skyrim so now I know who you're talking about.
TCTphantom: If it was done today it would probs be Crash, Dovakhin, and someone from Undertale/Deltarune.
Janx: For sure I could see this being Microsoft's next pick. He's the first of these draft picks who have gotten a Mii Costume which is huge, considering that opens the door to next-game promotion.
DanganZilla: I think it's worth keeping in mind that Dragonborn's costume was revealed alongside Shantae, Dante, and Lloyd. And Sakurai mentioned that these are highly requested characters so that is a big deal right there. It shows that Sakurai is aware of Dragonborn's major success in Japan.
TCTphantom: It also helps that Skyrim is one of the biggest games of the last decade.
BC_Guy: Yep that's a really big point in Dragonborn's favor. I think all 4 of those mii costume candidates will be big candidates for the next game.
TCTphantom: You could argue Skyrim is easily one of if not the most influential games of the 2010s.
I didn't have one of the Bethesda Mii Costumes on my shortlist, not saying who yet.
Thirdkoopa: Here's an interesting question: If Dragonborn makes it in, will some other characters from the Elder Scrolls franchise follow suit as alts?
Oblivion has also had a ton of influence, and Morrowind is still brought up among PC Gamers. Not to mention that, if Dragonborn makes it in, it could be a marketing promotion to side with Elder Scrolls VI.
BC_Guy: I think the Elder Scrolls character would just be Dragonborn but with different clothing/customized options.
TCTphantom: I doubt it tbh. It is not as easy to pull a hero especially with how tied some aspects of the dragonborn are to skyrim. Like having someone have the shout that isn’t dragonborn would feel off.
BC_Guy: I could maybe see it where Dragonborn is dressed up like some protags from past games.
DanganZilla: Also, while it's true that it's hard to follow up on Sora and Banjo (The top two ballot characters) and Steve, Skyrim makes so much sense as the next logical step forward, when it comes to western characters considering how much Japan loves Skyrim and Smash is biased towards characters that appeal to the japanese market.
@BC_Guy
I could maybe see it where Dragonborn is dressed up like some protags from past games.
Thirdkoopa: This probably makes the most sense.
(man I'm waiting for round 2 to have far crazier picks lol)
TCTphantom:
BC_Guy: Heavy Dragon Guy.
Janx: Honestly thinking I might lead with my crazy pick just to see how it goes, haha.
TCTphantom: There is one late game pick I am going to rip apart that I can feel in my bones.
Also @DanganZilla you are up.
DanganZilla: Alright I need to get my first backup ready lol. Give me a moment.
BC_Guy: For Microsoft or another company?
Thirdkoopa: @TCTphantom my first brainworm thought says Conker.
BC_Guy: Oooooohhhhh wait I think I know who it is based on our talk the other day.
Yeah I think it's Conker too.
TCTphantom: Let me just put some motivational music for Dangan.
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DanganZilla:
Killer Instinct is one of Rare's classic IPs. It wowed audiences with its memorable cast of characters and brutal combos with the famous lines such as "c-c-combo breaker!" and "Ultra combo!". Killer Instinct has several games on Nintendo consoles and got a reboot in 2013 with the Xbox One game that showed off what the console is capable of. To this day it's still a beloved IP.
TCTphantom: Wow, that was one of my late draft deep cuts.
Thirdkoopa: o_o
DanganZilla: I was thinking about doomguy but I thought someone would have gotten to him by now.
BC_Guy: Question: are there any other highly likely KI picks that could be seen as competition for Fulgore? Wondering if he gets the Spring Man treatment.
TCTphantom: Dangan you were fourth, there were only three characters before you.
DanganZilla: I didn't have an intro to prepare for him yet.
TCTphantom: @BC_Guy Honestly not really. Fulgore back then and today is more or less the mascot of KI.
Maybe Orchid but that is pushing it. When people think KI, I think they think of Fulgore and how big it was for Nintendo in the mid 90s.
Thirdkoopa: I don't think other characters are impossible, but Fulgore is more likely of the bunch.
Janx: With the recent inclusions of Kazuya and Terry I think Nintendo/Sakurai are trying to beef up the roster of fighting game characters and of the obvious ones like Sol and Scorpion, I could see Fulgore being chosen among them.
DanganZilla: @BC_Guy It's possible. Jago is often the protagonist and Orchid is very popular. But so is Fulgore and being a cyborg he has a ton of moveset potential.
TCTphantom: Not exactly a bad pick, I guess the question is whether KI is getting another game after KI 13.
Would not be surprised if it gets a port or another game for the new Xbox, would be a decent IP to boost sales.
Thirdkoopa: That said, I think other fighting games often get overlooked when talking about Smash. We have Ryu, Ken, Kazuya, and Terry. If you'd asked for Terry (or any other KoF character) before he got announced, you'd be laughed off the stage, and many people overlooked Tekken.
DanganZilla: @TCTphantom There was enough demand for another game that Phil Spencer gave a statement saying that they are looking for a "special" developer to pick up the series. so it sounds like they are still interested in the IP.
Thirdkoopa: @TCTphantom Agreed here. This poses the biggest problem.
TCTphantom: I honestly was expecting Heihachi for Tekken since when I think Tekken I think Tekken 3.
@Thirdkoopa Honestly hot take the most likely fighting game character for the next game is a KoF character, but that is off topic.
Probably Iori.
BC_Guy: I think the next FG character is either Iori or Sol Badguy.
Oh crap, forgot about Chun-Li.
TCTphantom: I didn't.
DanganZilla: To be fair, people overlooked Tekken only when Heihachi's costume came back. They really threw the community for a loop with Kazuya
Janx: I think Orcane has a bit of a shot in terms of the next FG rep. But back to Fulgore, I don't really see Microsoft picking him specifically as their next character, whereas I could definitely see Nintendo going for him, if nothing else to beef up their roster of fighting game characters in Smash.
Thirdkoopa: Another question I have is how popular Killer Instinct is worldwide. Of course, another game could easily boost it up.
TCTphantom: Honestly, given it was a Rare IP I would not be surprised if it was successful enough in Europe back in the day.
Thirdkoopa: If a new Killer Instinct is announced, this topic could easily be worth revisiting. Especially since fighting games are under a huge golden age - Guilty Gear Strive, King of Fighters XV, Mortal Kombat 11, and even Skullgirls and Melty Blood are all getting some notice. If there's any community that could bolster enough interest back into a 'dead' franchise, it's FG fans.
DanganZilla: @Thirdkoopa From what I could scramble, it was decently popular in Europe and did ok in Japan. Except for the 2013 game but that's because it was an Xbox exclusive and well.. I think we all know that Xbox consoles don't do that well in Japan. But the older games did fairly well internationally
TCTphantom: Janx , you're up.
Janx:
TCTphantom: Tfw no one picked doomguy round one, someone in the comments will have our heads on a pike.
Thirdkoopa: (LMAO)
TCTphantom: That being said, decent pick.
DanganZilla: Yeah good pick. Especially since it recently got DLC so it's still relevant and the fact that it got ported to the SWitch helps a lot.
TCTphantom: Cuphead esp with the TV show getting more episodes is far from a flavor of the month indie.
Thirdkoopa: Microsoft definitely had a push to help Cuphead get finished, but Microsoft isn't really that involved. That being said, Cuphead did manage to still work out a Mii costume in Smash. That's more than most characters. Not to mention that he's one of the only two (Correct me if I'm wrong) characters who's Mii costume lead to additional music.
TCTphantom:Sometimes, I feel like some indie picks end up being popular due to being the new hotness. Shovel Knight and Shantae during Smash 4 were both offenders of that at the time but both have stood the test of time. I think Cuphead will do the same.
TCTphantom: @Thirdkoopa Three. Sans, Cuphead, Shantae.
Janx: They also went in and retooled Cuphead's Spirit battle when the Mii Costume got announced, which goes above and beyond what we know for a Costume addition.
BC_Guy: My only big issue with Cuphead's chances is that I feel it's a bit too recent to get in as a character. I think the shortest length between a third party character's debut and them being playable in Smash is Bayonetta with 6 years, though she's a special case since she was added to promote Bayo 2 (I still don't believe she won the ballot but that's a story for another day).
Ok actually technically Joker was the shortest but he sort of represents Persona as a whole so I don't count him.
TCTphantom: @Janx The spirit event for cuphead came after the mii costume. they just made it like with some of the DLC mii costumes like say Aerith or Tifa they change if you have the costume.
Janx: @TCTphantom my bad. For some reason I remembered it as part of his announcement.
DanganZilla: To be fair the game came out in 2017 and it's already been 5 years. By the time of the next game he will be in the six+ range.
BC_Guy: Hypothetically I imagine the earliest possible Smash date would be perhaps... 2025. So that'd be 8 years which I think may be alright.
TCTphantom: Honestly my big concern as well is if Cuphead ends up an Assist Trophy in the next game like with Shovel Knight. Shovel Knight was popular as heck for smash so it would not be that weird especially since he was also an Indie frontrunner.
Janx: Steve was 9 so yeah, not too bad.
DanganZilla: Off topic but I just thought of that. Cuphead is 5 years old. Geez it felt like that game came out yesterday lol.
TCTphantom: Tho personally I think our next indie is almost certainly Undertale/Deltarune related.
BC_Guy: One other potential issue with Cuphead, and this is something I also see as an issue for a Skullgirls characters getting in too:
Would Cuphead in Smash be a 3D model or 2D animated? I know we have G&W though he's much more simply animated. Idk if this may pose as a design problem for Sakurai which may make him opt for someone else, which we have seen him do before.
BC_Guy: For this series we should have an indie day. There's a lot of interesting indie picks.
Janx: I think he should be 2D, though the Mii Costume doesn't really look that bad so I would be ok with him being a 3D model as I'm sure most Cuphead fans would.
DanganZilla: He could work in 2D. I'm not a game designer so I'm not sure how exactly difficult that is to pull off for Cuphead's aesthetics but I think it's feasible
Janx: The Cuphead Show is computer animated but keeps the rubber hose 2D style so I don't think it's out of reach for him to be 2D
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Stay tuned for Part 2 of this Character Draft and an Honorable Mentions Article!
Credits
Editing: @Zerp, @Sari
Thumbnail Graphics: @Zerp
Social Media: @Zerp
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