Saor Gael’s (Hopefully Unbiased) Brawl Predictions
Hi. I had been reading the Brawl predictions posted by others and greatly enjoyed them. Don’t always agree with all of them, but we all have our own opinions! These are mine. I think I have done a decent job of explaining my thoughts behind each one.
I don’t like a numerical system, so I’m using a word system instead.
Very high
High
Good
Fair
Not Good
Low
Very Low
I think those should be self-explanatory.
I have a further theory about character announcements; we are not going to see many of the most likely characters until the game is released (or very shortly before).
Why? I think Sakurai is keeping some of the biggest characters for last. Those he has unveiled so far often raise more questions than they answer.
The exception would be Sonic. However, I believe he was unveiled simply to lessen the sting of the date being pushed back by two months. I remember wondering at the time why he had unveiled Sonic then. The next day, we got the answer.
If Sakurai unveiled Ridley now, it would please many people, but the hubbub and wonder about him would die off (or at least significantly drop). Hence, he will not reveal new characters unless they create a new buzz.
Newcomers:
Ridley
The most likely newcomer on this list, I think. He’s nearly a shoe-in. While his ‘boss music’ suggests to some he will be a non-playable boss, I beg to differ. Metroid is a big enough series to warrant a third character, and he is the only likely candidate that would not come off as a clone (whether or not Dark Samus would be a Samus clone is not what matters, in my opinion; she would LOOK almost the same as regular Samus).
He has high move-pool potential, could easily be scaled down (like to the size he was in the Melee opening movie) and looks awesome. He is also highly requested by people. It seems possible that Norfair is his stage, and his boss music . . . well, what other music does Ridley have? He may be a boss, but he may also be a playable character at the same time (like many villains seem to have the potential for).
Odds: Very High
WW Link
Frankly, I think it’s just a natural step to modify Young Link to have the Cel Shaded style. It would also differentiate the character more, plus he is definitely capable of having his own moveset. Some people say that then there would be two Links; well, we have two versions of Samus now.
BTW, I think Bombchus would be awesome as WW Link’s Down+B. They could walk along the level, even under and all the way around it! Sorry, my opinion there.
Odds: Very High
Krystal
Another character that is very likely, I think. The blog of the VA that says she had been hired to voice Krystal suggests she will be in (though it could always be as an AT). However, she has much more potential for an original moveset, plus she is fairly well-known. Three seems the perfect number of characters for this series, to me.
Odds: Very High
Lucario
Lucario is the most likely new pokemon to make it into the game. Yes, third gen gets shafted. Let’s hope Metagross is a Pokeball Pokemon, at least. I don’t think that he and Mewtwo are mutually exclusive. Adding another pokemon would not really be too many, either. If we assume Pichu is not going to return, then we’d only have five pokemon characters; well within the realm of possibility. Pokemon is, after all, one of Nintendo’s biggest franchises, especially in Japan.
However, there is always the chance that he will instead be a Pokeball, coming out and shooting Aura Spheres at enemies. Possible . . . I don’t think likely. Still, being the fifth Pokemon character, I’d bump his odds from Very High to High.
Odds: High
AC Character
Animal Crossing may very well get a character. It is problematic that their most obvious character choices seem to be ATs or appearing in the background on their level. However, background appearance does not TOTALLY mean they could not be playable. Which character it may be is a very good question, but I feel safe in saying that there is a good chance a character from Animal Crossing will be on the Brawl roster.
Odds: Good
Mii
Another clever and likely addition, I think. It’s not the most likely idea, but it’s a good one. It seems to definitely fit in with the whole Wii theme. However, there is always a chance that the Mii may again be relegated to a side-role and simply appear, cheering, in the background of some Wii-themed stage. Hopefully that will not happen.
Odds: Good
Sukapon
This seems so Sakurai. Not only is Sukapon a very unique character, but it’s from one of Nintendo’s first fighting games, making him a great retro addition. Perhaps it is TOO odd, and that is why it has not already appeared in a Smash game, but I think it stands to reason that Sukapon has a good chance of appearing.
Odds: Good
Isaac
The Golden Sun main character seems like he could easily be a contender for a spot in Brawl. While he has a sword, and the games seem to be getting a bit sword heavy, he has a unique look for a humanoid character (only other blonde has a hat on!) and has very unique abilities, moves that rely on earth and plants. I suppose Ivysaur has plants down, but it would be easy to apply them differently.
He also represents a pretty popular RPG series (especially in Europe, apparently), one that has been put in the top 100 video games in some places.
Odds: Good
Bowser Jr.
The mini-Bowser actually has a good shot, I think. Mario is the flagship title of Nintendo, and I can’t imagine they’d not want to add another character from it. Besides that, Bowser Jr. would possess clawing/vicious attacks in a small package; this makes for a fairly unique character.
Perhaps the giant paintbrush would figure into it somehow, but I think they’d not put too much emphasis on the Super Mario Sunshine role.
Odds: Fair
Geno
Geno is an odd character. He has a fairly big (or at least vocal) fanbase, but has only one appearance in a Nintendo game, and in a supporting role at that.
However, I have heard Sakurai said he’d consider him first-party, which makes him exempt from the 3rd party limits.
I would say he is unlikely, save for Sakurai mentioning him specifically. I don’t think this makes him a shoe-in. I think he has a fair chance, but not much more than that.
Odds: Fair
King K. Rool
This Donkey Kong villain could be a contender. He’s not the most popular of characters, and the Donkey Kong franchise is a bit past its prime. He has moveset potential, and isn’t TOO much like other characters (excepting perhaps Bowser). He has a fair chance.
Odds: Fair
Captain Olimar
Many people think Olimar is a shoe-in, but I disagree. This is just my opinion (and I have nothing against Olimar), but I think he has too little potential for moves. I know that doesn’t stop characters, but it might be difficult to create a moveset for him that properly uses the Pikmin. Perhaps he pulls them out with different attacks? Or maybe he commands a force of them from off-screen? It seems very tricky to be able to balance the various kinds of Pikmin into it.
Now, I could be wrong, of course, and they make the effort to create a fleshed-out moveset for him. I just see him more likely as being an AT, appearing and hurling out Pikmin of various varieties at his foes.
Odds: Fair
Claus
Claus would be interesting, seeing as he is a robot boy. He would also provide a good antagonist for Lucas. New Pork City being a playable level would make sense as a ‘showdown’ for the two.
I think Claus is a likely candidate if the Mother series gets two reps and Sakurai really is dropping Ness. All in all, this gives him a fair chance of making it in.
Odds: Fair
Vaati
Ahh, one of the characters I hope for the most, yet he doesn’t have a lot of the essentials to be very likely. He’s the second-most recurring major villain in a Zelda game, yet he’s not really widely known due to mostly being in the handheld titles. That, and Zelda has lots of representatives already; Link, Zelda, Ganondorf, possibly Young Link again; four right there. There is one good thing in his favour, actually; a cel-shaded Vaati would be a good counter villain for a cel-shaded Young Link. This assumes, of course, that Young Link remains and is in the cel-shaded style of Wind Waker/Four Swords! So, I give him a fair shot.
Odds: Fair
Ray Mk II
This robot would be fun, but he probably has too little recognition to stand a great chance – at least, that’s my opinion. Probably has nice moveset potential, yet he’s not really retro enough to be a retro character. AT again, perhaps?
Odds: Not Good
Ashley
As amusing as this little witch would be to see in Brawl, I don’t think WarioWare is going to get another rep. It is popular, but it isn’t an enormously huge franchise like a lot of others. She has interesting potential, but not a good chance, I feel.
Odds: Not Good
Midna
Okay, there are good reasons to include Midna (most likely if she were in she’d be paired with Wolf Link, I think). However, the reasons against her are a bit greater, I think. First of all, she’s only appeared in one game. Secondly, LoZ has plenty of reps and possible reps already. I think four characters in their Twilight Princess guise would be a bit much.
There is no denying, however, she has moveset potential and is worthy of a spot. I think, though, that they may avoid putting in too many characters in the style of one game into Brawl.
Odds: Not Good
Skull Kid
A popular character and villain, Skull Kid is really not a huge character in his own series. He was the major villain in Majora’s Mask, but he was really just a puppet of the mask. I don’t think he has a big enough role in the Zelda franchise as a whole to overcome the fact that the game has so many other reps who have more in their favour.
Odds: Low
Dark Samus
It’s kind of funny, but Dark Samus is almost literally a clone of Samus. *SPOILER!* Metroid Prime took this form after ripping the Phazon Suit from Samus at the end of the first Prime game, mimicking Samus’ form. *END SPOILER!* I think the problem with Dark Samus is that her/its moves are more intended for a boss; they are all huge and powerful, covering large areas. They don’t lend themselves well to being made into a playable character on-par with other characters. There is an even bigger problem, that DS LOOKS almost the same as regular Samus. There’s already two versions of Samus; I think they would steer clear of third. There is one more thing against Dark Samus. The Prime games just aren’t that popular in Japan, at least not like the rest of the Metroid series. This may be why Sakurai seems to consistently ignore them.
(I just have to say that I ironically created a moveset once for the final form of Metroid Prime in the first game of the name. I think a flying head with tentacles would be an awesome character; the odds of it being in are so low I don’t even bother to list it here. XD)
Odds: Low
Starfy
I understand this character has great popularity in Japan, though it is relatively unheard of here.
There are two reasons against Starfy; it has no limbs. Therefore it really has little in the form of attack potential. Sure, it could attack, but what would make each attack DIFFERENT from the other ones? Sakurai has also stated that he won’t place too much emphasis on Japan-only characters, which Starfy is.
Odds: Low
Wolf O’Donnell
Sorry to Wolf fans. I don’t think he has much of a chance. I could be wrong, of course, but I think he is simply too similar to Fox. The potential of having alternate movesets is possible – you could argue that with anyone. However, in size and general shape he is almost the same as Fox. I don’t think Star Fox will get more than three reps, and I think they will be Fox, Falco and Krystal.
Odds: Very Low
Veterans:
A Note About Veterans: I personally think veterans have much higher odds of coming back than new characters have of appearing. Being incumbents, it's much easier to say 'let's not drop them' than 'let's add them'. The exception would be some clone characters.
So, the scale for vets is a bit higher than the scale for other characters, even if the same words are used.
Luigi
How can they NOT re-add Luigi is a better question than ‘will they?’. While he bears some similarities to Mario, he is a must-add character. There is no other single veteran character that is more essential than Luigi.
Can you imagine the outrage and whininess that would occur if he was dropped? God, I don’t want to.
Possible changes: I expect his Down+B will be the Poltergust, being sort of the reverse of Mario’s FLUDD.
Odds: Very High
Captain Falcon
The Captain is another character whose return is seen as assuredly imminent. For one, his logo is back, which is imperical evidence, secondly he is extremely popular, had a unique moveset, and has been in every other Smash game. There is no reason for him not to return.
Possible Changes: There isn’t really any reason to make a lot of changes to Falcon. However, keeping in the fairly common theme of making moves a bit easier to pull off, his famous knee in the air may have a bigger sweet spot, or perhaps no sweet spot – dealing consistent damage anytime it connects. If that happens, it may not have the oomph (or the great trajectory) that made it so famous in Melee.
Odds: Very High
Ganondorf
The King of Evil is another character whose return is obvious. Aside from being one of the most popular villains in all of Nintendo, he is also simply awesome, and completes the Tri-Force.
Possible Changes: Old Ganny is likely going to have massive changes this time around. Due to the time Brawl has spent in development, Sakurai should have had ample opportunity to give him his own unique moveset. It may include the pure white sword he wields in Twilight Princess, and probably sport the same look (which seems to me to be a cross between his OoT look and his look in WW.)
Speaking of Wind Waker, on theory I have not heard that seems possible is that he will look like his WW incarnation, as well as wielding the double swords from that game. That has the advantage of many unique moves to begin with, as no other character uses two swords at the same time (barring Marth/Roy with a Beam Sword). This is probably much less likely to occur than his TP incarnation.
Odds: Very High
Mr. Game & Watch
While some have hoped he will not come back, and he was low-tier in Melee, there is little reason to think he won’t be returning. He had his own moveset, as well as the icon theory (which is just a theory, but is fairly compelling). The chances are high he will come back.
Possible Changes: This 2-D guy will probably come back with mostly the same moves, but I expect him to see some buffs, in power and possibly speed. Basically, he’ll probably become mid-tier instead of bottom-tier.
Odds: High
Marth
Seeing as Ike is NOT a Marth clone that some predicted (myself included), Marth seems very likely to make another Smash appearance. Being the flagship character of his series helps a bit, too. The only things against him are the fact that he looks superficially similar to Ike; a blue-haired sword wielder.
Possible Changes: I expect Marth will have some nerfs that will be easily overlooked by casual players but be BLINDINGLY obvious to hardcore players. Likely his moves will be toned down in range, speed, or knockback, which will drastically reduce his combo ability.
Let me make clear I’m not against or for this; this just seems to be a common thing in Brawl; they are nerfing some of the most brutal combos in highest-tier characters.
He probably will get some buffs, though. His Smash B will probably be easier to perform, and his Up+B might go higher or be stronger.
Odds: High
Jigglypuff
The old puffster stands a high chance of returning, despite the fact that she’s not the most popular of characters (no offense to Jigglypuff supporters). There is really no reason NOT to bring her back, unless Sakurai suddenly thinks they have too many old-gen pokemon and bumps her for something newer. I don’t think that’ll happen, though. Jigglypuff is an old hand with a very unique style, and the most fun pwnination move in the game.
Possible Changes: Like from Smash64 to Melee, Jigglypuff probably won’t see too many big changes. Maybe her floats will be beefed up owing to the inherent floatiness of the game.
Odds: High
Mewtwo
Ah, poor Mewtwo. Outclassed in Melee by PIKACHU and JIGGLYPUFF. In the actual pokemon games they’d be nothing more that smears on the wall. So humiliating.
Mewtwo is dreadfully unpopular, owing to the fact that he was terrible in Melee. I knew it after I started playing him; I didn’t want to believe it, but it was true.
However, he does have a unique moveset, and is a popular pokemon. I think he has good odds of being back – and being better.
Possible Changes: I think Mewtwo will probably have MANY buffs in Brawl. He might feel like a whole new character from the way they beef him up. I doubt his Smashes will have the slowness or very specific sweet spots, and he will be faster and heavier in general.
If anything of his gets nerfed, it will probably be his throws, the only good thing about him in Melee.
There’s always the chance he will turn out like in Melee. My personal thought is that they were worried about making him too strong in the last game (since he’s uber in Pokemon) and kept nerfing him until he had almost nothing good left. Or maybe they thought it was funny.
Odds: Good
Falco
Another likely returnee with a few things that hold him back from being a certainty. For one, he’s a clone of Fox, and is simply similar to Fox in background and general appearance (flyboy outfit).
However, he could easily have his own distinctive moveset made for him, plus he’s very popular. I don’t know if it is because he is high-tier, or if it is because he is actually liked as a character.
Possible Changes: Probably major changes for Falco if he returns. Expect his own moveset from nearly scratch, though perhaps he will still share a few similar moves with Fox (like the Reflector and blaster).
He’d probably keep his weight/speed/jump abilities as from Melee. Why not? They were good and pretty distinctive.
Odds: Good
Roy
Poor Roy. He was a bit of a tool in Melee, being put in mainly to pimp the new FE game. Being a Marth clone (and not generally thought of as being as good as Marth), he will probably be dumped. I don’t think Fire Emblem is *quite* a three-character worthy series. Of course, Sakurai may disagree.
There is also the ‘sword wielder’ problem. A lot of characters seem to have them anymore . . .
Possible Changes: If Roy remains, then he will most likely given an all-new moveset. His neutral B move may remain, as it is one of his signature moves in Melee. I'd expect some small tweaks as well, perhaps making him slightly better in movement.
Odds: Not Good
Ness
All-but deconfirmed in the Lucas updates, there is still always a chance he’ll come back to face off against his third-game counterpart. It seems sad to have him replaced with Lucas, but Sakurai could always be pulling the old switcheroo. Wait, no. Well, he may be fooling us.
Possible Changes: Ness may have all-new B moves, if he comes back, seeing as Lucas has most of his. He may actually have moves he had Earthbound!
Odds: Low
Sheik (as a stand-alone character)
I don’t think it’ll happen. Sheik IS Zelda. Despite the fact that they are based in looks on Twilight Princess, Sakurai is probably not going to be enough of a stickler to insist Sheik be her own character. Most likely Zelda will be buffed to play better.
Possible Changes: Sheik may be nerfed a little, especially in attack speed and her smashes. If she was a stand-alone character she’d have a new Down+B, but I have no idea what it would be, seeing as her entire moveset was created for Melee.
Odds: Low
Pichu
A most-loathed tiny mouse, who is nevertheless liked by the evil few who know it is the best character for embarrassing friends with (like me!). He’s a Pikachu clone with no real redeeming features – he hurts himself.
All in all, I can only see him coming back if Sakurai thinks it’s funny, or once again wants to pad out the line-up. An unlikely scenario, seeing as he’s had quite a long time to make the game.
Possible Changes: If Pichu returned, he’d probably be mostly the same. I doubt they’d buff him much, unless it was in an absurd way.
Odds: Very Low
Dr. Mario
Another clone with few differences from his base. While pros may enjoy the slight variation from Mario, I doubt most casual players care. Sakurai also will probably feel that there are better options, and cut the good doctor.
Possible Changes: Probably along the same lines as Mario has been buffed; going from good to great in every way, but slightly heavier and slower.
Odds: Very Low
Young Link
See WW Link
Third-Party:
Megaman (Capcom)
The most likely last third-party character, I think. He’s had many, many games, is old and well-established, well-liked, and easily recognizable, while Capcom is pretty friendly with Nintendo. In fact, the only thing against him is the poor argument that he’s like a mini-Samus. I myself don’t really look too forward to him, but I still believe he is the most likely character.
Odds: Very High
Bomberman (Hudson)
The second most likely contender, I think. Yes, he uses bombs. No, I don’t think he’ll ONLY use bombs. They created entire movesets for many characters, why not add some things to Bomberman’s repertoire?
He is perfectly cartoony enough to fit into Brawl; he is also decently popular and old enough to be well known. I kind of think his bombs will tend to be thrown without holding, the way Link’s are.
Odds: High
Rayman (Ubisoft)
A candidate who still stands a chance. Rayman isn’t too big, but if Bomberman and Megaman are too busy, there’s always one last ‘man! The Rabbids are almost more popular (and funnier), but they don’t really have a single named character. However, they would be good ATs, I think. Let’s hope Sakurai decides to add more than three third-party characters.
Odds: Fair
NiGHTS (SEGA)
This pains me to say, but NiGHTS doesn’t have a high chance of being in Brawl. It’s my most favoured third-party char, but that doesn’t mean it has the best chance.
Still, there’s always hope, right?
I actually bumped NiGHTS from ‘Not Good’ to Fair while writing this, because I think there are a couple decent reasons to add the character. One; it is a very unique character (and one might say a Nightmare is the antithesis of an angel. A stretch? Okay, yeah.). It is also a good way of pimping a major upcoming game from SEGA on the Wii. By the time Brawl comes out, NiGHTS will have been on the system for several months. Hell, it’s possible SEGA would ASK for NiGHTS to be put in. Also, if Sakurai was getting tired of negotiating with other companies, getting two SEGA characters might have been easier than two characters from different companies.
There is the pesky problem of no moveset, but NiGHTS is a character who could have one created for him without a huge difficulty, I think.
Odds: Fair
Pac-Man
The oldest of old-school, Pac-Man is the yellow blob who I'm sure most of this board has seen eat and die millions of times in their childhood. While it is possible he could always appear in Brawl, I do not think his odds are really that great. Sure, he is super old-school and appeared on Nintendo, but he is not Nintendo property, and there are a myriad of other third-parties who have more reasons going for them (even NiGHTS, for which I know people are going to try to rip me a new one for saying).
Odds: Not Good
Other Sonic Character; Knuckles, Tails, Dr. Eggman, Shadow, etcetera (SEGA)
This may piss people off. Surely, they might say, TAILS deserves a higher rating than NiGHTS! That thing has only been in one game on a failed system!
Yes, that is true. However, adding Sonic made sense. He was the main character of his series. Adding another character from his series is a bit trickier. Who do you add? Tails, the sidekick? Knuckles, the sometimes partner? Shadow, the darker version of Sonic? Eggman, the worthy villain? Adding another Sonic character might be a bit like opening a floodgate; where do you stop when the series has almost as many worthy characters as the Mario series?
That is a major reason I don’t think they have good chances of being in. There is one more reason that NiGHTS has a higher chance, I think; NiGHTS would be pimping an upcoming game, while other Sonic characters aren’t.
Odds: Not Good
Leon S. Kennedy or any Resident Evil Character (Capcom)
I don’t think it’s likely that Sakurai will take more than one character from the same company; he seems to want to be going for a variety. Also, there are the ‘realism’ and ‘gun’ factors. Most RE characters use guns to very messily kill zombies. This kind of limits their options, as Sakurai wants to avoid heavily violent characters. This makes them run the risk of being too much like Snake.
Odds: Low
Banjo Kazooie (Rare)
RARE DEFECTED! ****, I really liked Perfect Dark on the N64. Ahem, that aside, I think the fact that Rare is now a Microsoft slave means the odds of adding this duo is pretty slim. They don’t have huge name recognition anymore, either. They are unique, but if uniqueness alone was enough to make a character be in or not, then we’d lose many characters from Melee and have all kinds of odd and esoteric characters from various Nintendo titles.
Odds: Low
Sora (Square Enix)
I think Sora is the MOST likely of any Square Enix characters to get into Brawl (other than Geno, who Sakurai has said is somewhat special). That doesn’t mean a great chance, especially with the somewhat stiff relations with Square. Still, I see Sora’s odds as being astronomically higher than most FF characters.
Odds: Very Low
Simon Belmont (Konami)
Not enough of a draw or name recognition, I think. Sure, the Castlevania games are popular, but not stellar. Also, he’s a very SERIOUS character; so is Snake, but unless the creator of Castlevania begs for Simon’s inclusion, I don’t think he really fits enough to make it.
Odds: Very Low
Ryu (Capcom)
Ryu is from a fighting game, but he’s not exactly too special when it comes to Brawl. Looking like a very generic martial-artist, and with moves that seem similar to some Brawl characters already, I just don’t see him having nearly enough appeal to beat out other third-party contenders.
Odds: Very Low
Hi. I had been reading the Brawl predictions posted by others and greatly enjoyed them. Don’t always agree with all of them, but we all have our own opinions! These are mine. I think I have done a decent job of explaining my thoughts behind each one.
I don’t like a numerical system, so I’m using a word system instead.
Very high
High
Good
Fair
Not Good
Low
Very Low
I think those should be self-explanatory.
I have a further theory about character announcements; we are not going to see many of the most likely characters until the game is released (or very shortly before).
Why? I think Sakurai is keeping some of the biggest characters for last. Those he has unveiled so far often raise more questions than they answer.
The exception would be Sonic. However, I believe he was unveiled simply to lessen the sting of the date being pushed back by two months. I remember wondering at the time why he had unveiled Sonic then. The next day, we got the answer.
If Sakurai unveiled Ridley now, it would please many people, but the hubbub and wonder about him would die off (or at least significantly drop). Hence, he will not reveal new characters unless they create a new buzz.
Newcomers:
Ridley
The most likely newcomer on this list, I think. He’s nearly a shoe-in. While his ‘boss music’ suggests to some he will be a non-playable boss, I beg to differ. Metroid is a big enough series to warrant a third character, and he is the only likely candidate that would not come off as a clone (whether or not Dark Samus would be a Samus clone is not what matters, in my opinion; she would LOOK almost the same as regular Samus).
He has high move-pool potential, could easily be scaled down (like to the size he was in the Melee opening movie) and looks awesome. He is also highly requested by people. It seems possible that Norfair is his stage, and his boss music . . . well, what other music does Ridley have? He may be a boss, but he may also be a playable character at the same time (like many villains seem to have the potential for).
Odds: Very High
WW Link
Frankly, I think it’s just a natural step to modify Young Link to have the Cel Shaded style. It would also differentiate the character more, plus he is definitely capable of having his own moveset. Some people say that then there would be two Links; well, we have two versions of Samus now.
BTW, I think Bombchus would be awesome as WW Link’s Down+B. They could walk along the level, even under and all the way around it! Sorry, my opinion there.
Odds: Very High
Krystal
Another character that is very likely, I think. The blog of the VA that says she had been hired to voice Krystal suggests she will be in (though it could always be as an AT). However, she has much more potential for an original moveset, plus she is fairly well-known. Three seems the perfect number of characters for this series, to me.
Odds: Very High
Lucario
Lucario is the most likely new pokemon to make it into the game. Yes, third gen gets shafted. Let’s hope Metagross is a Pokeball Pokemon, at least. I don’t think that he and Mewtwo are mutually exclusive. Adding another pokemon would not really be too many, either. If we assume Pichu is not going to return, then we’d only have five pokemon characters; well within the realm of possibility. Pokemon is, after all, one of Nintendo’s biggest franchises, especially in Japan.
However, there is always the chance that he will instead be a Pokeball, coming out and shooting Aura Spheres at enemies. Possible . . . I don’t think likely. Still, being the fifth Pokemon character, I’d bump his odds from Very High to High.
Odds: High
AC Character
Animal Crossing may very well get a character. It is problematic that their most obvious character choices seem to be ATs or appearing in the background on their level. However, background appearance does not TOTALLY mean they could not be playable. Which character it may be is a very good question, but I feel safe in saying that there is a good chance a character from Animal Crossing will be on the Brawl roster.
Odds: Good
Mii
Another clever and likely addition, I think. It’s not the most likely idea, but it’s a good one. It seems to definitely fit in with the whole Wii theme. However, there is always a chance that the Mii may again be relegated to a side-role and simply appear, cheering, in the background of some Wii-themed stage. Hopefully that will not happen.
Odds: Good
Sukapon
This seems so Sakurai. Not only is Sukapon a very unique character, but it’s from one of Nintendo’s first fighting games, making him a great retro addition. Perhaps it is TOO odd, and that is why it has not already appeared in a Smash game, but I think it stands to reason that Sukapon has a good chance of appearing.
Odds: Good
Isaac
The Golden Sun main character seems like he could easily be a contender for a spot in Brawl. While he has a sword, and the games seem to be getting a bit sword heavy, he has a unique look for a humanoid character (only other blonde has a hat on!) and has very unique abilities, moves that rely on earth and plants. I suppose Ivysaur has plants down, but it would be easy to apply them differently.
He also represents a pretty popular RPG series (especially in Europe, apparently), one that has been put in the top 100 video games in some places.
Odds: Good
Bowser Jr.
The mini-Bowser actually has a good shot, I think. Mario is the flagship title of Nintendo, and I can’t imagine they’d not want to add another character from it. Besides that, Bowser Jr. would possess clawing/vicious attacks in a small package; this makes for a fairly unique character.
Perhaps the giant paintbrush would figure into it somehow, but I think they’d not put too much emphasis on the Super Mario Sunshine role.
Odds: Fair
Geno
Geno is an odd character. He has a fairly big (or at least vocal) fanbase, but has only one appearance in a Nintendo game, and in a supporting role at that.
However, I have heard Sakurai said he’d consider him first-party, which makes him exempt from the 3rd party limits.
I would say he is unlikely, save for Sakurai mentioning him specifically. I don’t think this makes him a shoe-in. I think he has a fair chance, but not much more than that.
Odds: Fair
King K. Rool
This Donkey Kong villain could be a contender. He’s not the most popular of characters, and the Donkey Kong franchise is a bit past its prime. He has moveset potential, and isn’t TOO much like other characters (excepting perhaps Bowser). He has a fair chance.
Odds: Fair
Captain Olimar
Many people think Olimar is a shoe-in, but I disagree. This is just my opinion (and I have nothing against Olimar), but I think he has too little potential for moves. I know that doesn’t stop characters, but it might be difficult to create a moveset for him that properly uses the Pikmin. Perhaps he pulls them out with different attacks? Or maybe he commands a force of them from off-screen? It seems very tricky to be able to balance the various kinds of Pikmin into it.
Now, I could be wrong, of course, and they make the effort to create a fleshed-out moveset for him. I just see him more likely as being an AT, appearing and hurling out Pikmin of various varieties at his foes.
Odds: Fair
Claus
Claus would be interesting, seeing as he is a robot boy. He would also provide a good antagonist for Lucas. New Pork City being a playable level would make sense as a ‘showdown’ for the two.
I think Claus is a likely candidate if the Mother series gets two reps and Sakurai really is dropping Ness. All in all, this gives him a fair chance of making it in.
Odds: Fair
Vaati
Ahh, one of the characters I hope for the most, yet he doesn’t have a lot of the essentials to be very likely. He’s the second-most recurring major villain in a Zelda game, yet he’s not really widely known due to mostly being in the handheld titles. That, and Zelda has lots of representatives already; Link, Zelda, Ganondorf, possibly Young Link again; four right there. There is one good thing in his favour, actually; a cel-shaded Vaati would be a good counter villain for a cel-shaded Young Link. This assumes, of course, that Young Link remains and is in the cel-shaded style of Wind Waker/Four Swords! So, I give him a fair shot.
Odds: Fair
Ray Mk II
This robot would be fun, but he probably has too little recognition to stand a great chance – at least, that’s my opinion. Probably has nice moveset potential, yet he’s not really retro enough to be a retro character. AT again, perhaps?
Odds: Not Good
Ashley
As amusing as this little witch would be to see in Brawl, I don’t think WarioWare is going to get another rep. It is popular, but it isn’t an enormously huge franchise like a lot of others. She has interesting potential, but not a good chance, I feel.
Odds: Not Good
Midna
Okay, there are good reasons to include Midna (most likely if she were in she’d be paired with Wolf Link, I think). However, the reasons against her are a bit greater, I think. First of all, she’s only appeared in one game. Secondly, LoZ has plenty of reps and possible reps already. I think four characters in their Twilight Princess guise would be a bit much.
There is no denying, however, she has moveset potential and is worthy of a spot. I think, though, that they may avoid putting in too many characters in the style of one game into Brawl.
Odds: Not Good
Skull Kid
A popular character and villain, Skull Kid is really not a huge character in his own series. He was the major villain in Majora’s Mask, but he was really just a puppet of the mask. I don’t think he has a big enough role in the Zelda franchise as a whole to overcome the fact that the game has so many other reps who have more in their favour.
Odds: Low
Dark Samus
It’s kind of funny, but Dark Samus is almost literally a clone of Samus. *SPOILER!* Metroid Prime took this form after ripping the Phazon Suit from Samus at the end of the first Prime game, mimicking Samus’ form. *END SPOILER!* I think the problem with Dark Samus is that her/its moves are more intended for a boss; they are all huge and powerful, covering large areas. They don’t lend themselves well to being made into a playable character on-par with other characters. There is an even bigger problem, that DS LOOKS almost the same as regular Samus. There’s already two versions of Samus; I think they would steer clear of third. There is one more thing against Dark Samus. The Prime games just aren’t that popular in Japan, at least not like the rest of the Metroid series. This may be why Sakurai seems to consistently ignore them.
(I just have to say that I ironically created a moveset once for the final form of Metroid Prime in the first game of the name. I think a flying head with tentacles would be an awesome character; the odds of it being in are so low I don’t even bother to list it here. XD)
Odds: Low
Starfy
I understand this character has great popularity in Japan, though it is relatively unheard of here.
There are two reasons against Starfy; it has no limbs. Therefore it really has little in the form of attack potential. Sure, it could attack, but what would make each attack DIFFERENT from the other ones? Sakurai has also stated that he won’t place too much emphasis on Japan-only characters, which Starfy is.
Odds: Low
Wolf O’Donnell
Sorry to Wolf fans. I don’t think he has much of a chance. I could be wrong, of course, but I think he is simply too similar to Fox. The potential of having alternate movesets is possible – you could argue that with anyone. However, in size and general shape he is almost the same as Fox. I don’t think Star Fox will get more than three reps, and I think they will be Fox, Falco and Krystal.
Odds: Very Low
Veterans:
A Note About Veterans: I personally think veterans have much higher odds of coming back than new characters have of appearing. Being incumbents, it's much easier to say 'let's not drop them' than 'let's add them'. The exception would be some clone characters.
So, the scale for vets is a bit higher than the scale for other characters, even if the same words are used.
Luigi
How can they NOT re-add Luigi is a better question than ‘will they?’. While he bears some similarities to Mario, he is a must-add character. There is no other single veteran character that is more essential than Luigi.
Can you imagine the outrage and whininess that would occur if he was dropped? God, I don’t want to.
Possible changes: I expect his Down+B will be the Poltergust, being sort of the reverse of Mario’s FLUDD.
Odds: Very High
Captain Falcon
The Captain is another character whose return is seen as assuredly imminent. For one, his logo is back, which is imperical evidence, secondly he is extremely popular, had a unique moveset, and has been in every other Smash game. There is no reason for him not to return.
Possible Changes: There isn’t really any reason to make a lot of changes to Falcon. However, keeping in the fairly common theme of making moves a bit easier to pull off, his famous knee in the air may have a bigger sweet spot, or perhaps no sweet spot – dealing consistent damage anytime it connects. If that happens, it may not have the oomph (or the great trajectory) that made it so famous in Melee.
Odds: Very High
Ganondorf
The King of Evil is another character whose return is obvious. Aside from being one of the most popular villains in all of Nintendo, he is also simply awesome, and completes the Tri-Force.
Possible Changes: Old Ganny is likely going to have massive changes this time around. Due to the time Brawl has spent in development, Sakurai should have had ample opportunity to give him his own unique moveset. It may include the pure white sword he wields in Twilight Princess, and probably sport the same look (which seems to me to be a cross between his OoT look and his look in WW.)
Speaking of Wind Waker, on theory I have not heard that seems possible is that he will look like his WW incarnation, as well as wielding the double swords from that game. That has the advantage of many unique moves to begin with, as no other character uses two swords at the same time (barring Marth/Roy with a Beam Sword). This is probably much less likely to occur than his TP incarnation.
Odds: Very High
Mr. Game & Watch
While some have hoped he will not come back, and he was low-tier in Melee, there is little reason to think he won’t be returning. He had his own moveset, as well as the icon theory (which is just a theory, but is fairly compelling). The chances are high he will come back.
Possible Changes: This 2-D guy will probably come back with mostly the same moves, but I expect him to see some buffs, in power and possibly speed. Basically, he’ll probably become mid-tier instead of bottom-tier.
Odds: High
Marth
Seeing as Ike is NOT a Marth clone that some predicted (myself included), Marth seems very likely to make another Smash appearance. Being the flagship character of his series helps a bit, too. The only things against him are the fact that he looks superficially similar to Ike; a blue-haired sword wielder.
Possible Changes: I expect Marth will have some nerfs that will be easily overlooked by casual players but be BLINDINGLY obvious to hardcore players. Likely his moves will be toned down in range, speed, or knockback, which will drastically reduce his combo ability.
Let me make clear I’m not against or for this; this just seems to be a common thing in Brawl; they are nerfing some of the most brutal combos in highest-tier characters.
He probably will get some buffs, though. His Smash B will probably be easier to perform, and his Up+B might go higher or be stronger.
Odds: High
Jigglypuff
The old puffster stands a high chance of returning, despite the fact that she’s not the most popular of characters (no offense to Jigglypuff supporters). There is really no reason NOT to bring her back, unless Sakurai suddenly thinks they have too many old-gen pokemon and bumps her for something newer. I don’t think that’ll happen, though. Jigglypuff is an old hand with a very unique style, and the most fun pwnination move in the game.
Possible Changes: Like from Smash64 to Melee, Jigglypuff probably won’t see too many big changes. Maybe her floats will be beefed up owing to the inherent floatiness of the game.
Odds: High
Mewtwo
Ah, poor Mewtwo. Outclassed in Melee by PIKACHU and JIGGLYPUFF. In the actual pokemon games they’d be nothing more that smears on the wall. So humiliating.
Mewtwo is dreadfully unpopular, owing to the fact that he was terrible in Melee. I knew it after I started playing him; I didn’t want to believe it, but it was true.
However, he does have a unique moveset, and is a popular pokemon. I think he has good odds of being back – and being better.
Possible Changes: I think Mewtwo will probably have MANY buffs in Brawl. He might feel like a whole new character from the way they beef him up. I doubt his Smashes will have the slowness or very specific sweet spots, and he will be faster and heavier in general.
If anything of his gets nerfed, it will probably be his throws, the only good thing about him in Melee.
There’s always the chance he will turn out like in Melee. My personal thought is that they were worried about making him too strong in the last game (since he’s uber in Pokemon) and kept nerfing him until he had almost nothing good left. Or maybe they thought it was funny.
Odds: Good
Falco
Another likely returnee with a few things that hold him back from being a certainty. For one, he’s a clone of Fox, and is simply similar to Fox in background and general appearance (flyboy outfit).
However, he could easily have his own distinctive moveset made for him, plus he’s very popular. I don’t know if it is because he is high-tier, or if it is because he is actually liked as a character.
Possible Changes: Probably major changes for Falco if he returns. Expect his own moveset from nearly scratch, though perhaps he will still share a few similar moves with Fox (like the Reflector and blaster).
He’d probably keep his weight/speed/jump abilities as from Melee. Why not? They were good and pretty distinctive.
Odds: Good
Roy
Poor Roy. He was a bit of a tool in Melee, being put in mainly to pimp the new FE game. Being a Marth clone (and not generally thought of as being as good as Marth), he will probably be dumped. I don’t think Fire Emblem is *quite* a three-character worthy series. Of course, Sakurai may disagree.
There is also the ‘sword wielder’ problem. A lot of characters seem to have them anymore . . .
Possible Changes: If Roy remains, then he will most likely given an all-new moveset. His neutral B move may remain, as it is one of his signature moves in Melee. I'd expect some small tweaks as well, perhaps making him slightly better in movement.
Odds: Not Good
Ness
All-but deconfirmed in the Lucas updates, there is still always a chance he’ll come back to face off against his third-game counterpart. It seems sad to have him replaced with Lucas, but Sakurai could always be pulling the old switcheroo. Wait, no. Well, he may be fooling us.
Possible Changes: Ness may have all-new B moves, if he comes back, seeing as Lucas has most of his. He may actually have moves he had Earthbound!
Odds: Low
Sheik (as a stand-alone character)
I don’t think it’ll happen. Sheik IS Zelda. Despite the fact that they are based in looks on Twilight Princess, Sakurai is probably not going to be enough of a stickler to insist Sheik be her own character. Most likely Zelda will be buffed to play better.
Possible Changes: Sheik may be nerfed a little, especially in attack speed and her smashes. If she was a stand-alone character she’d have a new Down+B, but I have no idea what it would be, seeing as her entire moveset was created for Melee.
Odds: Low
Pichu
A most-loathed tiny mouse, who is nevertheless liked by the evil few who know it is the best character for embarrassing friends with (like me!). He’s a Pikachu clone with no real redeeming features – he hurts himself.
All in all, I can only see him coming back if Sakurai thinks it’s funny, or once again wants to pad out the line-up. An unlikely scenario, seeing as he’s had quite a long time to make the game.
Possible Changes: If Pichu returned, he’d probably be mostly the same. I doubt they’d buff him much, unless it was in an absurd way.
Odds: Very Low
Dr. Mario
Another clone with few differences from his base. While pros may enjoy the slight variation from Mario, I doubt most casual players care. Sakurai also will probably feel that there are better options, and cut the good doctor.
Possible Changes: Probably along the same lines as Mario has been buffed; going from good to great in every way, but slightly heavier and slower.
Odds: Very Low
Young Link
See WW Link
Third-Party:
Megaman (Capcom)
The most likely last third-party character, I think. He’s had many, many games, is old and well-established, well-liked, and easily recognizable, while Capcom is pretty friendly with Nintendo. In fact, the only thing against him is the poor argument that he’s like a mini-Samus. I myself don’t really look too forward to him, but I still believe he is the most likely character.
Odds: Very High
Bomberman (Hudson)
The second most likely contender, I think. Yes, he uses bombs. No, I don’t think he’ll ONLY use bombs. They created entire movesets for many characters, why not add some things to Bomberman’s repertoire?
He is perfectly cartoony enough to fit into Brawl; he is also decently popular and old enough to be well known. I kind of think his bombs will tend to be thrown without holding, the way Link’s are.
Odds: High
Rayman (Ubisoft)
A candidate who still stands a chance. Rayman isn’t too big, but if Bomberman and Megaman are too busy, there’s always one last ‘man! The Rabbids are almost more popular (and funnier), but they don’t really have a single named character. However, they would be good ATs, I think. Let’s hope Sakurai decides to add more than three third-party characters.
Odds: Fair
NiGHTS (SEGA)
This pains me to say, but NiGHTS doesn’t have a high chance of being in Brawl. It’s my most favoured third-party char, but that doesn’t mean it has the best chance.
Still, there’s always hope, right?
I actually bumped NiGHTS from ‘Not Good’ to Fair while writing this, because I think there are a couple decent reasons to add the character. One; it is a very unique character (and one might say a Nightmare is the antithesis of an angel. A stretch? Okay, yeah.). It is also a good way of pimping a major upcoming game from SEGA on the Wii. By the time Brawl comes out, NiGHTS will have been on the system for several months. Hell, it’s possible SEGA would ASK for NiGHTS to be put in. Also, if Sakurai was getting tired of negotiating with other companies, getting two SEGA characters might have been easier than two characters from different companies.
There is the pesky problem of no moveset, but NiGHTS is a character who could have one created for him without a huge difficulty, I think.
Odds: Fair
Pac-Man
The oldest of old-school, Pac-Man is the yellow blob who I'm sure most of this board has seen eat and die millions of times in their childhood. While it is possible he could always appear in Brawl, I do not think his odds are really that great. Sure, he is super old-school and appeared on Nintendo, but he is not Nintendo property, and there are a myriad of other third-parties who have more reasons going for them (even NiGHTS, for which I know people are going to try to rip me a new one for saying).
Odds: Not Good
Other Sonic Character; Knuckles, Tails, Dr. Eggman, Shadow, etcetera (SEGA)
This may piss people off. Surely, they might say, TAILS deserves a higher rating than NiGHTS! That thing has only been in one game on a failed system!
Yes, that is true. However, adding Sonic made sense. He was the main character of his series. Adding another character from his series is a bit trickier. Who do you add? Tails, the sidekick? Knuckles, the sometimes partner? Shadow, the darker version of Sonic? Eggman, the worthy villain? Adding another Sonic character might be a bit like opening a floodgate; where do you stop when the series has almost as many worthy characters as the Mario series?
That is a major reason I don’t think they have good chances of being in. There is one more reason that NiGHTS has a higher chance, I think; NiGHTS would be pimping an upcoming game, while other Sonic characters aren’t.
Odds: Not Good
Leon S. Kennedy or any Resident Evil Character (Capcom)
I don’t think it’s likely that Sakurai will take more than one character from the same company; he seems to want to be going for a variety. Also, there are the ‘realism’ and ‘gun’ factors. Most RE characters use guns to very messily kill zombies. This kind of limits their options, as Sakurai wants to avoid heavily violent characters. This makes them run the risk of being too much like Snake.
Odds: Low
Banjo Kazooie (Rare)
RARE DEFECTED! ****, I really liked Perfect Dark on the N64. Ahem, that aside, I think the fact that Rare is now a Microsoft slave means the odds of adding this duo is pretty slim. They don’t have huge name recognition anymore, either. They are unique, but if uniqueness alone was enough to make a character be in or not, then we’d lose many characters from Melee and have all kinds of odd and esoteric characters from various Nintendo titles.
Odds: Low
Sora (Square Enix)
I think Sora is the MOST likely of any Square Enix characters to get into Brawl (other than Geno, who Sakurai has said is somewhat special). That doesn’t mean a great chance, especially with the somewhat stiff relations with Square. Still, I see Sora’s odds as being astronomically higher than most FF characters.
Odds: Very Low
Simon Belmont (Konami)
Not enough of a draw or name recognition, I think. Sure, the Castlevania games are popular, but not stellar. Also, he’s a very SERIOUS character; so is Snake, but unless the creator of Castlevania begs for Simon’s inclusion, I don’t think he really fits enough to make it.
Odds: Very Low
Ryu (Capcom)
Ryu is from a fighting game, but he’s not exactly too special when it comes to Brawl. Looking like a very generic martial-artist, and with moves that seem similar to some Brawl characters already, I just don’t see him having nearly enough appeal to beat out other third-party contenders.
Odds: Very Low
