Meta Rosalina Match-Up Analysis R2 - Lucario

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Rosalina Match-Up Analysis R2 - Lucario

Welcome to the Rosalina vs. Lucario match-up analysis thread. This thread will be used to analyze Rosalina's match-up against Lucario. For all the rules on the round 2 match-up discussions, please refer to the directory thread.

Last Updated: 11/15/2015

Special Moves Allowed| |
Default only | | +0.5
Default + Custom | | -0.5

Spoiler: Score Inputs

Default only
HunterNinjaReaperPirate: -1 - ±0
L3 Exo: +1
Lange: +1
nannerham: ±0 - +1
Strong-Arm: ±0 - +1

Default + Custom
Strong-Arm: -1 - ±0

 

[Steam]

Can't do a full write up at this very second but Rosa wins by a lot due to her ridiculous neutral game, but lucario gains ground quickly if Rosa makes mistakes.

 

[Strong-Arm]

Hmmm, I haven't fought any amazing Rosa's yet with Lucario but from personal experience and knowing the character I feel as if it wouldn't too hard for Lucario. When it comes to the actual match the longer Rosa goes without killing Lucario is just making things worse for her. She's light and fairly tall making it easy for Lucario to kill her when his aura has been built up enough. At first things may seem in Rosalina's favor but by the time Lucario has around 50% things change. He can space her out with force palm at this point for one thing. Luma can be a problem but personally the best things to against him is charged aura sphere which will usually kill him in one hit if charged enough and above 50%, another option is Lucario's amazing D-air which is crazy good imo. This isn't to say that Rosalina has a hard time tho. A good Rosalina can give Lucacrio one hell of a time. Lucario overall hits harder the higher his % so its safe to say in my mind that the match (if 2 equal players are fighting) will go to whoever gains the stock lead first. If Lucario can get the first kill then he might take it, but he'll more likely than not lose if he lost the stock first due to his aura mechanic needing time. Thats my two cents anyways. Id say its about 45:55 in rosalinas favor slightly

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

@ Strong-Arm : Is your score for customs OFF? It would help me out more if I knew if it involves customs or not.

 

[Strong-Arm]

With customs OFF its 45:50 with customs ON tho then its around 55:45 due to the fact that Lucario gains an amazing kill move with 1211. With his command grab he can kill Rosalina around 100% when Lucario he is at around 60%. With this it makes it harder for Rosalina to mess up. If she loses Luma she is easily in a really bad situation, worse than usual due to Lucarios new kill grab. She can still beat him, but due to the command grab things become more difficult for her.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

With customs OFF its 45:50 with customs ON tho then its around 55:45 due to the fact that Lucario gains an amazing kill move with 1211. With his command grab he can kill Rosalina around 100% when Lucario he is at around 60%. With this it makes it harder for Rosalina to mess up. If she loses Luma she is easily in a really bad situation, worse than usual due to Lucarios new kill grab. She can still beat him, but due to the command grab things become more difficult for her.

I am a bit lost on the ratios there. Do they favor Rosalina or Lucario?

 

[Strong-Arm]

Customs Off it favors Rosalina, Customs on it slightly favors Lucario. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Steam]

Rosalina is just a massive wall luc can't break very easily. Dash attack and jab pretty much swallow his neutral game. Uair kills are pretty common as well. Lucs saving grace is that on a read he can kill absurdly early with aura

 

[Nubcario]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLzy_4OPsUM

 

[WolfieXVII ❂]

sure looks like 45-55 to me :^ )

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

@ WolfieXVII ❂ : I'm assuming that your score favors Lucario, right? Also, is the score for customs OFF?

 

[iiGGYxD]

sure looks like 45-55 to me :^ )

I have little to no experience fighting lucario and Kamicario is an excellent player. Take this vid with a grain of salt towards the MU discussion.

 

[L3 Exo]

Considering that Kamikario is considered potentially the best Lucario in the world vs. someone who admits to not having the matchup experience, I wouldn't necessarily use that video as the deciding factor.

With my experience against Rosa players as a Lucario main, Rosalina definitely has a solid edge. Lucario CAN still throw out a number of Aura Spheres without too much worry in comparison to different types of "reflector" moves, but Rosa can get really early kills on Lucario, early enough to pretty much phase out aura comebacks for that stock. Think the earliest I've been hit from a Rosa back air mid-stage and died from was 80% with minimal rage? Though, outside of that, Lucario has a hard time dealing with Rosa's U-Airs and D-Airs while trying to recover. A competent Rosa player used to the match-up will be able to to punish Lucario's recovery if he chooses to focus either on the ledge or going a route below Rosa. Though, in Lucario's favor, he DOES have early kills on Rosa if he doesn't get killed too early, FP is great for dealing with Luma. Rosa does a bit better in regards to speed and frames, that with Luma I feel gives her the edge. I'd say about 60-40 in Rosalina's favor, though, no more than that (without customs).

 

[Lange]

L3 Exo thanks for the good input.

I'll try to contribute to this since I secondary Lucario and spent time talking with Luc players and such. Would basically put it in Rosas favor as stated, Lucario with his overall slower speed and not so great approach options has a hard time getting in in neutral. If the Lucario can survive and ultize aura with Rosas light weight she's easily a goner in that instance. Aura with the increased hit boxes like L3 mentioned with FP helps to pressure through luma, low aura FP can be dangerous and easily punished. Lucario doesn't have to worry about reflectors with Aura spheres but can GP to negate the sphere. Lucario can get around a bit better with B reversing and wavebounces, and Rosas large size of trapped in a charge makes Lucarios JCUS a good option if setup properly. If Lucario can get in he has some decent low aura damage from throw combo strings, but since that's an issue Rosa has the advantage initially. Also Rosa has a easier time killing Lucario before significant aura, so I give that also an edge to her.

I say it's 57.5-42.5 rosa with a half ratio 60-40 Rosa full ratio or by new system +1. Lucario mains can handle the MU but in a more equal player state with decent familiarity on both sides it's a challenge for him. Not a MU for Rosa to take lightly though because if Lucario gets decent aura going and survive she's toast.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Lucario is being analyzed again for this week. If you have anything to contribute for the match-up, especially in regards to the newest software update, this is the place to do it.

 

[nannerham]

Lucario's biggest advantage in the MU is 3 of his moves fastest moves (fair, dair, dash attack) can put luma into tumble when he has 0% aura and the number of moves only increases the more aura he has (ftilt, utilt, bair, all of these moves put luma into tumble at 60%) and the hitbox of uthrow flings luma incredibly far away so he doesn't have much of a problem getting rid of luma. The way lucario manuvers his b-reverses and wave bounces is crucial to the MU and thanks to rosa's tall frame catching her in ASC (aura sphere charge) combos and kill confirms is easier than most characters, even if lucario has a low-moderate amount of aura she can lose stocks at 90%-100% and with a recent kill confirm it can even be as low as 60%, but its important to not become predicatable with your wavebounces and b-reverses or else you'll eat a hefty punish, the neutral consists of a lot of movement and mixups on lucario's end.

Offstage is a where rosa shines, since lucario's extreme speed doesn't have a hitbox for most of the animtion you can keep swatting him away which can net you some early stocks and if he doesn't recover at the right angle when he aims for onstage then he has 2 years of endlag and you can do pretty much whatever you want to him, as exo said rosa should be abusing uair and dair to make recovering a miserable time, if rosa is offstage there's a 2 things lucario can do: either cover the ledge with dair if rosa recovers low or swat rosa away with nair, but if both of those fail then you lose stage control so covering the ledge with ASC is the best option most of the time so all in all rosa has a much more potent edgeguarding game.

Despite his mobility buff and the new kill confirm I still believe rosa has a slight edge and I'd say it's 55:45.

 

[L3 Exo]

New kill confirm? Did I miss something? Because it doesn't sound like you're talking about ASC -> Usmash.

In most scenario's, as a Rosalina, you shouldn't be falling into ASC's - even with her tall frame. Been having to play against a lot of Rosalina these days (to my dismay, yet appreciation for the matchup experience.) and I do agree as for methods of getting rid of luma, but the main tool that I would say Lucario in the matchup is FP (Force Palm). As long as you didn't lose your stock early, that little bit of zoning makes a world of difference, since while most reflectors actually CAN reflect FP (which actually kills.), Rosa's is one of the few that Lucario lucks out on.

All patches taken in consideration, Lucario mobility buff is relevant, but not too much. Rosalina's weight nerf made things SLIGHTLY easier.

I still feel this is a 60-40, Rosalina's favor. On stage, Rosa has good control as long as she's mindful of wild Bair's and side b's.
Off-stage... Rosa is an absolute nightmare for Lucario. Below stage? Prepare for Dair. Above? Well, I hope you like that Usmash/tilted Fsmash you're eating. Worst end lag? RIP.