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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

shinhed-echi

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Dr.Eggman:

Chance: 65%
Slightly higher than a coin toss, since Sephiroth boosts his chances, not only as a second 3rd party rep, but also as a DLC villain. Sakurai recently expressed a little interest in having more villains. (I think).

Want: 100%
It's long overdue. A new Sonic character should've been in base game, IMO. Sonic has been the most recurring 3rd party in the game.
At least as far as Songs go, Eggman could bring a much needed bump.
I admit Eggman wasn't my top pick before, but now all Sonic characters are on equal ground for me.

---

Chun Li
Chance: 75%
Capcom really loves pushing it's SF. And where Ryu goes, Chun Li is usually close behind. It was a surprise we got Ken, but if there's even a window of opportunity for Capcom to add a new character, Chun Li is by all means the next character they'll go for.

Want: 50%
I love Chun-Li, but a 3rd SF character over a dozen other Capcom characters I'd love to see, doesn't sound all that exciting.

I don't do nominations, but what the heck .. Metal Sonic just to see what people think.
 

3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
Dr. Ivo Robotnik, I presume?
Chance: 50%:In my opinion, the current Sega frontrunner and a shoe in if Fighter's Pass 3 comes to fruition. Why? Pretty goddamn simple. Eggman has a ton of iconicity and the movie pushed him even further. Also, he's beloved and would make sense. And before you say "Sonic has too much content". .That's bull****. It has terrible music selection, 2 Green Hill Zones, and 2 ATs, as well as the laziest character in Smash Bros history. Sonic deserves more content at this rate, especially when other franchises get much better, and Eggman could provide that chance.
Want: 90%: While Blaze and Shadow would be preferable for several reasons, Eggman could be great. I love heavyweights, Eggman has a ton of moveset potential, and the other stuff could be so cool. The stage could be any of the many final boss stages from the franchise, and we don't have many factory type stages in Smash, or airships for that matter. A stage like Wing Fortress or Scrap Brain could be really fun. And the music. Sonic doesn't have great musical representation, and giving more would be amazing in my opinion, especially with the amount of boss themes Eggman could provide. So, **** yes!

Fighting Game #4
Chance: 0%: In contrast, Chun Li is not likely at all. Why? Street Fighter has a ton of content in Smash already, and unlike Sonic has two fighters that play very differently. As well, there's a huge music selection and there's not a ton of missing spirits, again, Sonic does not have this issue. Street Fighter also happens to be a franchise that was added later then Sonic, and Capcom has many other franchises. Sega really only has Sonic, Puyo Puyo, and Yakuza at the moment as contenders, so I don't see why they'd put in another Street Fighter rep compared to Ace Attorney, Final Fight, Monster Hunter, Ghosts n Goblins, Resident Evil, Dead Rising, Okami, Viewtiful Joe or Strider just to name a few. There's just no point.
Want: 1%: Chun is. .fine. She has a reason to be here, yes, but I don't see the point. Street Fighter frankly has enough representation as it is. As well, I never played Chun. Ken was and always will be my Street Fighter lady, and if I'm going with a female character, it's Cammy or Ibuki. Chun does have cool moves and could be fun in Smash, but. .I want so many other Capcom characters. Phoenix Wright, Mike Haggar, Firebrand, Arthur, Jill, Frank, Amaretsu, or Strider; all of these characters are much higher on my priority list and could be far more dynamic and interesting then a 4th fighting game character from a franchise that already is one of the few to have multiple characters in Smash Bros. So, Chun Li is a no from me, chief.
Nominations: Peppino x40
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
1,008
Eggman

Chance: 55%

I think this is pretty toss up. On one hand, Sephiroth broadened up our narrow point of view. On the other hand, our focused view kept getting shattered left and right. We thought #5 would be third party. We thought Nintendo wouldn't go for expensive characters for FP2. Sonic can really use another rep as it's the series that kept showing up since concept of 3rd party was introduced. But, I'm not sure whether Sakurai feels there is already enough Sonic contents or not. I'm pretty sure Sakurai can bring contents from other Sonic games. Still, how much Sonic is represented in Smash makes it hard to judge.

Want: 75%

I think he would be unique. Some people may say he would be Bowser Jr. 2.0, but he should have various mech to differentiate himself enough. Although there are many characters I want to see before him, I would smile upon his inclusion. He would fill villain spot that seem long missing.

Chun-Li

Chance: 20%

She is fight game lady for good reason. She definitely earned her spot in Smash. However, there is an elephant in the room. Street Fighter is already represented well enough in Smash. I've seen argument that SF3 can fill up the void, but that's stretching imo. Fighter Pass trend is that each newcomer should bring fresh batch of new contents. I just don't see much of new contents she can bring at this moment. Unlike Eggman who doesn't have that much of competition, Chun Li got tons: Monster Hunter, Phoenix Wright, Devil May Cry, Dead Rising, Okami, etc. All those series will bring new fanbase untapped by Street Fighter. This is DLC we are talking about. They have to sell slots with enough contents to fill space.

Want: 15%

No offense to her. She would be nice addition, but Street Fighter is already represented well enough. I want to see new series mentioned above from Capcom. I wouldn't be mad at all, but disappointed that Street Fighter gets 3 fighters. I think that's too much even for Chun-Li especially DLC. If there are more slots after FP2 that don't require music, spirit to fill, then we can talk. Otherwise, let other unrepresented franchise get their chance to show themselves.

Nom:
Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 20
A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x 20
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
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Jul 29, 2014
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Drenthe, NL
70 alternative accounts
Chance: 5%
Many people saw Eggman's chances shoot up as Sephiroth broke the barrier for 2nd reps for third-party series and I sorta agreed with that. Since the hype has settled down however, it was quite reactionary looking back at it.
Sephiroth may be an iconic third-party villain from a series already represented but that certainly does not make Robotnik a quarantee, especially with limited spots left. You could even argue Sephiroth makes him actually less likely. If Nintendo and Sakurai like to categorize the DLC characters Sephiroth would take the spot for "iconic villain/boss character" which, despite their differences, is definitely something him and McNosehair have in common.
Furthermore, Nintendo and Sakurai likely were always inclined to lookt at a franchise like Final Fantasy for a 2nd rep over StH to begin with. The Sonic franchise just does not seem to be all that popular in Japan and when you compare all the Sonic content to the FF content pre Sephiroth, the Sonic representation was way more complete barring some music and arguably playable characters. FF meanwhile had an even wore music problem, lacked Mii costumes and Assist Trophies and had basically zero Spirits. That FF represention gave of the feeling that they wanted to have way more but weren't able to for a reason, whereas with Sonic they are just fine with how it is. We've gone three Smash games with Sonic in it and we couldn't even get Shadow as an echo fighter in this game despite them likely having the freedom to do so.
The recent Sakurai interview about Sephiroth could be spun into Sakurai in being interested in adding more villains but that interest would likely not line up with Nintendo. Maybe for a potential third pass Eggman has a better shot but I wouldn't count on it at the moment. If they didn't care about adding Shadow, chances are they likely don't care about adding Eggman either. They probably would prefer a rep from a different SEGA series.

Want: 80%
Detracting some points since competition's getting really tight and I prioritize other characters but Eggman would still be really hype. He has enormous potential for a moveset, stage and especially music tracks. Probably not spirits however but I don't mind.


Abstaining on Chun-Li

Alucard: 26.15%
Zero: 13.98%
Raiden: 7.85%
Henry Stickmin x20
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Thunder Thighs

Chance: 1% So. Chun Li. Let's get this out of the way first, she's literally the most iconic woman in fighting games, outranking the likes of Ivy, Mai, King and May by a long shot, which makes sense, she was the first one. Beyond that? She's second only to Lara Croft when we see who's the most iconic woman not already in the game, with the top trinity of women in gaming being those 2 and Peach. Chun Li's so popular that when Street Fighter 3 got rid of all but 2 members of the cast, she was the first to come back in an update. She's also iconic enough to get her own live action movie, it was crap, but she got one over a solo movie for Ryu or Ken. Has to mean something to me.

Want: 100% I, like many others, adore Chun Li, she's badass, she's adorable, she's fun to watch at high level play, etc. She's easily one of the most iconic characters not yet in the game and hey, we could always use more women in Smash. The only potential issue I can kinda see for her is her charge input for Kikoken, but Terry's Power Wave was simply turned into a single button press to prevent overlap with Burn Knuckle, so I think Kikoken would have a similar fate. I'm also very curious how Chun Li would work as Ryu and Ken don't play like their usual counterparts but instead have real weight behind their moves and especially jumps. Chun Li's usually focused on playing footsies (sidenote, wonder if her primarily kicking is why they called it that) but in games like MvC3, she's an incredibly mobile character who even gets 3 jumps, so there's clearly enough to make her work in terms of playstyles.

E.G.G.M.A.N

Chance: 4% Here's an unpopular one. I don't see Sephiroth being a good sign for ol' Ivo, he merely put the idea that multiple characters from the same third party franchises, particularly villains, could happen. Not to say he's entirely out of luck, despite Sega having a lot of competition with the likes of Arle, Kiryu and a character from SMT coming to mind, Eggman's literally the most iconic Sega character not already in the game, though he's been that since Sonic was added. What's more interesting for Eggman is popularity. Sure, support's popping up a hell of a lot more due to Sephy, but 1: He was already a pretty popular suggestion in the fanbase for a while and 2: It says a lot that a lot of people thought of Eggman after Sephy got announced.

Want: 50% I'm really conflicted here, I love Eggman, be it from the days of playing SA2 or Mike Pollock being the only part of Modern Sonic writing with competence, I love seeing this fat ******* and the dumb **** he does from destroying his own ****ing base by firing a laser directly at it, pissing on the moon, a ****ing slot machine mech that has a function that's literally "****ing slaughter me lmao" and more, but there's one single issue for me. I cannot for the life of me envision how to make a coherent character out of him. After all, Eggman's many things but he isn't consistent. I can't see a moveset of just the Egg Walker working, I can't see a composite classic Eggman boss character working, I can't see a downsized Egg Dragoon working, nothing. If I can't see it working, I'm not going to be in full favour for it.

Velvet Crowe x20
Zagreus x20
 

Ridrool64

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New Jersey
I know some people say Arle, who I potentially might nom up after Neku is rated.
Wasn't she on the schedule? Also does that mean her nominations are reinstated, reset, or...?

Anyway, Team #ThankYouSephiroth:

Chance (Eggman): 20%, for now. I don't think he has any chance of being revealed outside of E3, so to me his only shot is as Challenger Pack 10. But let's just say that in the future, it's probably him or Tails at SOME point, and eventually both. They are both genuinely inevitable now (short of a massive falling out between SEGA and Nintendo), it's only a matter of when, and I think Ultimate is not his time. Smash characters almost never, if not never, follow the exact same mold as anybody who came immediately beforehand, and Eggman is the perfect example (extremely perfect) of this. It doesn't help that Sonic has a plethora of content already. But make no mistake, this character is iconic, heavily requested, and his competition basically amounts to Arle and Kiryu, who in a straight fight he wins against, by about the distance between Earth and the sun (I have reason to suspect adding Puyo/Yakuza is higher priority, though. After all, what else made Bayonetta/Persona higher priority?). The moveset potential on him is staggering, in fact so staggering that people often run intro trouble thinking of how he would work. His in series competition consists of Assist Trophies and DLC Mii Costumes, meaning that if we get a second Sonic rep odds are it's him (for now. Once Tails is back in the picture it's a much harder call.)

Chance (Chun-Li): 30%, like Eggman for now. She's still inevitable under the same conditions as Eggman and I think the same of her as him. This includes the "for now, can't see her getting revealed outside of E3" and "Street Fighter, as 2 centric as it is, is very well represented". However, what she has he doesn't is some information that points to, but doesn't conclusively confirm her. Now whether or not the "Chun-Li and a Tales rep were considered for base" information is true or not is debatable, but I have no reason to not believe it as it doesn't claim the characters are coming, just that they were given the time of day (which is much, much further than most other characters get). That being said, I will say that she has much stronger competition. Monster Hunter is of a comparable, if not superior in some regards, popularity to Street Fighter these days and gets lots of attention from Nintendo, Devil May Cry is also a very popular series, and Ace Attorney has been a longstanding fan request. Hell, she's not even home free in her own series, as we could end up getting Bison, or somebody entirely different if the devs want it. But overall, I feel like Chun-Li is an obvious next step for Capcom alongside the aforementioned.

Want (Chun-Li): 20%. Like before this character is one who objectively deserves it more than basically anybody I'd ask for. But, like... I don't care. She gets in? Fine, I'll give her a shot, but it's unlikely I'll like her as much as Terry. She doesn't? Oh well, I don't feel like a Brawler costume is "not enough" for her if a Gunner is enough for Tails. I doubt that her content will be as un-Street Fighter 2 as others predict unless there's literally nothing else you could add from that game. Even still, I have my Capcom preference but Chun-Li is a character I'm down with.

Want (Eggman): 0%, anything that begins the Sonic conga line is going to bring me despair and I don't want to feel that. Although it would be kinda funny if Eggman cucked Puyo again. And I do think a Sonic rep who doesn't have a sucky moveset, brings more remixes, and a stage that isn't Green SHill (I couldn't resist) Zone but worse in every way is warranted. But I don't want it.

Arle x 40, if she isn't added back into the schedule (regardless of her noms being reinstated or not). Otherwise, Henry and Among Us x 20 each.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Wasn't she on the schedule? Also does that mean her nominations are reinstated, reset, or...?

Anyway, Team #ThankYouSephiroth:

Chance (Eggman): 20%, for now. I don't think he has any chance of being revealed outside of E3, so to me his only shot is as Challenger Pack 10. But let's just say that in the future, it's probably him or Tails at SOME point, and eventually both. They are both genuinely inevitable now (short of a massive falling out between SEGA and Nintendo), it's only a matter of when, and I think Ultimate is not his time. Smash characters almost never, if not never, follow the exact same mold as anybody who came immediately beforehand, and Eggman is the perfect example (extremely perfect) of this. It doesn't help that Sonic has a plethora of content already. But make no mistake, this character is iconic, heavily requested, and his competition basically amounts to Arle and Kiryu, who in a straight fight he wins against, by about the distance between Earth and the sun (I have reason to suspect adding Puyo/Yakuza is higher priority, though. After all, what else made Bayonetta/Persona higher priority?). The moveset potential on him is staggering, in fact so staggering that people often run intro trouble thinking of how he would work. His in series competition consists of Assist Trophies and DLC Mii Costumes, meaning that if we get a second Sonic rep odds are it's him (for now. Once Tails is back in the picture it's a much harder call.)

Chance (Chun-Li): 30%, like Eggman for now. She's still inevitable under the same conditions as Eggman and I think the same of her as him. This includes the "for now, can't see her getting revealed outside of E3" and "Street Fighter, as 2 centric as it is, is very well represented". However, what she has he doesn't is some information that points to, but doesn't conclusively confirm her. Now whether or not the "Chun-Li and a Tales rep were considered for base" information is true or not is debatable, but I have no reason to not believe it as it doesn't claim the characters are coming, just that they were given the time of day (which is much, much further than most other characters get). That being said, I will say that she has much stronger competition. Monster Hunter is of a comparable, if not superior in some regards, popularity to Street Fighter these days and gets lots of attention from Nintendo, Devil May Cry is also a very popular series, and Ace Attorney has been a longstanding fan request. Hell, she's not even home free in her own series, as we could end up getting Bison, or somebody entirely different if the devs want it. But overall, I feel like Chun-Li is an obvious next step for Capcom alongside the aforementioned.

Want (Chun-Li): 20%. Like before this character is one who objectively deserves it more than basically anybody I'd ask for. But, like... I don't care. She gets in? Fine, I'll give her a shot, but it's unlikely I'll like her as much as Terry. She doesn't? Oh well, I don't feel like a Brawler costume is "not enough" for her if a Gunner is enough for Tails. I doubt that her content will be as un-Street Fighter 2 as others predict unless there's literally nothing else you could add from that game. Even still, I have my Capcom preference but Chun-Li is a character I'm down with.

Want (Eggman): 0%, anything that begins the Sonic conga line is going to bring me despair and I don't want to feel that. Although it would be kinda funny if Eggman cucked Puyo again. And I do think a Sonic rep who doesn't have a sucky moveset, brings more remixes, and a stage that isn't Green SHill (I couldn't resist) Zone but worse in every way is warranted. But I don't want it.

Arle x 40, if she isn't added back into the schedule (regardless of her noms being reinstated or not). Otherwise, Henry and Among Us x 20 each.
She wasn’t, at least according to my post in the discord. Ill check later if I’m wrong.
 

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
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Georgia
Eggman
Chance: 5%
The only thing playing in his favor is that he's Sonic's main villain. I don't think Sonic is in the same place as ARMS and Final Fantasy 7 in regards to what Nintendo would gain from adding him on top of the content already available. I also think if they went to SEGA for any additional characters, they'd continue to focus on spreading their attention to their other franchises outside Sonic.
Want: 100%
I don't know who doesn't love at least 1 iteration of this guy. He's a perfect candidate for Smash specifically; he has a lot of potential to be a genuinely unique character. I'd buy him in a heartbeat.
Chun-Li
Chance: 40%
She's a highly recognizable name in gaming on par with Ryu and Ken. Street Fighter, like Sonic, isn't in the same boat as ARMS and Final Fantasy 7, but it does have multiple sequels that could realistically offer a new distinct part of the franchise's history to be represented. I could see why Nintendo would choose her, but there's also a chance they'll gravitate towards Monster Hunter instead because of how massive it is among Capcom IPs, contrasting to how little representation it has in Smash currently compared to other Capcom IPs. Or maybe they're going to do something compltetely out of left field; either way I'm interested in seeing what route this takes.
Want: 85%
She'd be a solid choice, an inoffensive one at worst. I already would have preferred her being added before Terry. She'd round out the cast of big Street Fighter names in Smash. I'm content with the representation the series has as it is and I'd rather see Capcom spread the love to some other franchises, but I'd understand if Chun-Li was the most viable DLC choice for Nintendo.

Don't have anything I want to nominate.
 

Ridrool64

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Jun 21, 2013
Messages
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Overall, a fun character I really wanted that came with a lot of great content, what can I say?

In other news, here is the current fixed schedule that is going to be done. This was done with plenty of user suggestions, and I hope that y'all will enjoy it.

Eggman and Chun Li
Alucard, Raiden, and Zero
Quote and Reimu
Hayabusa and Adol
KOS MOS and Sakura
Dante, Phoenix, and Monster Hunter
Bandana Dee and Dixie Kong
Rex and Gen 8 Pokemon (and Wooper)
Lloyd, Arle, and Rayman
Crash and Tracer
Sora and Professor Layton
Waluigi and Isaac
Master Chief and Kratos
Concept: Second SNK Character and Concept: Stages without fighters as DLC
Concept: Third Fighters Pass
Pass Predictions Post Sephiroth


This was back during the previous fixed schedule. I mean I don't' mind Arle getting dropped from the fixed schedule too much since she can be renominated but still.
Arle Nadja, who was leading the noms list, got added to the fixed schedule, leaving Monokuma as the undisputed king of despair! Concept: League of Legends rep moved in, passing Crazy Dave, Worms and John Marston and taking 4th place. Dave won his tie against Worms and John and advanced to fifth.

Mii Costume: 2B launches past 100 noms. Uh, see you soon?

Marina Liteyears shakes past 50 noms.

Concept: Far Cry rep breaks out of the under 25 zone.

Ridrool64 Ridrool64 On Don-chan's day you nominated Arle, so I figured I'd give you the chance to give your noms to someone else. Who/what would you like to change them to?
If Arle is dropped from the fixed schedule, does this mean her (185) noms are reinstated or null and void?
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
I'll preface this by saying that neither of my opinion of these two was changed by Sephiroth, let alone the "leaks" that surfaced afterward. I've always found these kinds of characters likely.

Thigh Master

Chance: 20%
Chun-Li is one of the most iconic characters in all of gaming. It can't be understated how big a deal she is. I could see her added solely because of that. Street Fighter has a lot of room for further representation. Musically we only have SF2 music (much to my dismay), and there's many important characters missing as Spirits. With how big a role Chunners has in SF3, she could have that game as the "theme" of her pack - if needed. Honestly after the last couple of characters I doubt there's much regard for the potential redundancy of the content. The fighter is the star of the show, and if the character is a big deal then the rest of the pack will be accommodated. All in all, I consider Chun-Li one of the frontrunners for Capcom.

Want: 100%
Who could say no to Chun-Li? Even if I love many of the Capcom franchises that could get their first rep (and many of the ones that probably won't), I can't say no to Chun-Li. She's the kind of character that has to be in Smash.

Jim Carrey

Chance: 17%
I think it's safe to say that Eggman is undisputably the most iconic villain not already in Smash. It's honestly shocking that for such a big character he has such a small presence in Ultimate. But that might be his saving grace. Shadow is an Assist Trophy (though I don't think that means anything) and is likelier in an echo role. Tails got a DLC Mii Costume so he's pretty much out. In terms of Sonic characters that leaves Eggman as the last man standing. And, like I said with Chun-Li, he's the kind of big character that would make headlines if included. The main difference is that Sonic's content, while sparser, is better distributed along its history, but it's not a big problem; the Adventure games, Colors/Generations, Mania, whatever anniversary game is about to be announced, there's a lot of ways Eggman's pack could go. After various comments by the devs of Puyo Puyo and Yakuza, I'm not sure if Sega will even get a fighter. But if they do, right now I think Eggman is the clear frontrunner for them.

Want: 100%
I love Eggman, he's a funny and enjoyable villain. He'd probably have a very creative moveset too, using his various mechs and gadgets for inspiration. And you can never have enough Sonic music. My preferred Sonic newcomer is Shadow and out of Sega characters I'd also rather have Axel Stone, Kiryu, and an SMT character, but you won't find me complaining if this rotund madman gets the invitation.

Noms: Marina Liteyears x20
Agent 47 x20

Alucard prediction: 19.21%
Zero prediction: 12.13%
Raiden prediction: 10.66%
 
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Louie G.

Smash Hero
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Aug 21, 2013
Messages
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Rhythm Heaven
I respect that everyone has different opinions on these two but it's a little jarring to consistently see people rate Eggman higher and Chun-Li a good deal lower, specifically in citing that Sonic is in more desperate need of additional representation while Street Fighter is "represented well".

On the flipside of this, Sonic has two stages (both classic and modern) and substantial music tracks from every facet of its history in addition to two ATs. Street Fighter has one more character than Sonic, has a very good amount of music but its content (such as all of those aforementioned tracks) is limited almost entirely to SF2. If anything by this logic there's more supplement to expand on SF through a Chun-Li pack than there is for Sonic through an Eggman pack, since SFIII and Alpha are still largely untouched outside of a few spirits.

It's a matter of perspective I suppose. The quality of SF's representation is arguably better than Sonic's, but just because Ken is there doesn't mean Street Fighter got the red carpet rolled out or anything when so much of the series' history is absent. There's a lot of room for improvement on both ends, it's just a weird argument to use against Chun-Li while propping Eggman up is all.
 
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Mushroomguy12

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Nov 23, 2018
Messages
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Nintendo Land Theme Parks, Incorporated
I respect that everyone has different opinions on these two but it's a little jarring to consistently see people rate Eggman higher and Chun-Li a good deal lower, specifically in citing that Sonic is in more desperate need of additional representation while Street Fighter is "represented well".

On the flipside of this, Sonic has two stages (both classic and modern) and substantial music tracks from every facet of its history in addition to two ATs. Street Fighter has one more character than Sonic, but its content is limited almost entirely to SF2. If anything by this logic there's more supplement to expand on SF through a Chun-Li FP than there is for Sonic through an Eggman FP, since SFIII and Alpha are still largely untouched outside of a few spirits.

It's a matter of perspective I suppose. The quality of SF's representation is arguably better than Sonic's, but just because Ken is there doesn't mean Street Fighter got the red carpet rolled out or anything. There's a lot of room for improvement on both ends, it's just a weird argument to use against her while propping Eggman up is all.
I wonder how these ratings would look if Shadow got in as an echo in the base game instead of Ken.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
[Rerate] Monokuma x215
Qbby x210
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x195
[Rerate] Neku x184
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x172
Crazy Dave x170
Worms x155

150 - 101

John Marston x150
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x150
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x135
Concept: Among Us character x135
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Marina Liteyears x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108

100 - 51

Stage: Bowser's Castle x96
Riptor x95
Boss: Rayquaza x90
Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Giygas x76
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: Far Cry rep x70

Echo (Bowser) x65
Henry Stickmin x65
Junpei (Zero Escape) x63

Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x55

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x52

50 - 25

Tetra x45
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x45
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x40
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x40
Mii Costume: Madeline x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
Stage: Tetris x20
Filia (Skullgirls) x19
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Senator Armstrong x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Zagreus x5
Firebrand x1

Marina Liteyears shakes more than 100 noms.

Peppino and A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters ascend to the over 50 sector of the list.

Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass and Mii Costume: Madeline escape the under 25 club.

Today's new nominees are a rerate of Master Hand, with 5 noms in hand, Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages with 10, and Zagreus, with 5.
 
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Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
4,093
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Chun-Li

Chance: 50%

I genuinely think she'll be one of the remaining 3 fighters. Chun-Li is without a doubt one of the most iconic characters in gaming, being named the "First Lady of Fighting Games"(although that's not technically true though). Street Fighter's Smash content is primarily focused on SFII with Alpha second. While there's only a few spirits with III & IV, and nothing from V. So she can easily add content from those games(she's pretty much the face of SFIII: 3rd Strike). And she's always present with Ryu in crossover games but here for some reason. She didn't get a consolation prize of being an AT, which went to Guile instead. And then there's the negoiations leak which has gotten things right so far, especially if Volume 2's theme is to give characters that were passed in Base & Volume 1 a second. And the Monster Hunter costumes are still missing as well.

Want: 90%

She'd be a fun character to play as with her faster kick based attacks, as well as aerial based moves as well, maybe throw in a gimmick from the later games like V-Trigger. The 10% missing is more for my preference for Alex, but nothing wrong with chunners.

Eggman

Chance: 10%

I really don't see him coming compared to Chun-Li TBH. Sonic has content from nearly every game in the series compared to the content in Street Fighter. Especially when every single major character in Sonic is already a spirit.

Want: 10%

I'd much rather a new IP from Sega than another Sonic character. Eggman is also not that much a favorite villain as well.

Alucard Prediction: 9.88%
Zero Prediction: 7.88%
Raiden Prediction: 6.88%

Nominate:

Concept: Normal and Large Final Destination made into separate stages x20
Zagreus Mii Costume x20
 
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chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,261
Dr. Eggman and Chun-Li

Chance for both: 5%
I'm sorry, but I don't see either of them happening. For starters, I can't help but feel like we're only talking about these two because of Sephiroth. We're assuming that Sephiroth getting in means any third-party character from an already-repped franchise is eligible now. I'll admit, I'm guilty of this myself (spoilers for his day, but I still think Rex is the most-likely first-party rep), but it's a problem with Smash speculation in general. We always look at the newest addition, and assume the rest of the Pass will be the same. It happened with Min Min (Spirit promotions), it happened with Steve (modern gaming icons), and now it's happening with Sephiroth. I think PushDustin put it best on Twitter: we never look at the big picture. Sephiroth's main selling point is the fact he feels like a playable boss character, hence that limited-time mode. That would ESPECIALLY hurt Eggman's chances, because he'd probably have that same theme were he to be added. As for Chun-Li, while it's true most SF content is specifically biased towards SF2, keep in mind Sephiroth didn't come with any non-FF7 content. How do we know Chun-Li wouldn't just come with even MORE SF2 content? Overall, I think these two are just bandwagon picks that everyone suddenly thinks is likely just because of Sephiroth.

Abstain on want. I have no opinions on either of them.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma xhowever many noms I get from this. I lost track of how many sentences I needed.
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
20,913
Location
Scotland
Dr. Eggman and Chun-Li

Chance for both: 5%
I'm sorry, but I don't see either of them happening. For starters, I can't help but feel like we're only talking about these two because of Sephiroth. We're assuming that Sephiroth getting in means any third-party character from an already-repped franchise is eligible now. I'll admit, I'm guilty of this myself (spoilers for his day, but I still think Rex is the most-likely first-party rep), but it's a problem with Smash speculation in general. We always look at the newest addition, and assume the rest of the Pass will be the same. It happened with Min Min (Spirit promotions), it happened with Steve (modern gaming icons), and now it's happening with Sephiroth. I think PushDustin put it best on Twitter: we never look at the big picture. Sephiroth's main selling point is the fact he feels like a playable boss character, hence that limited-time mode. That would ESPECIALLY hurt Eggman's chances, because he'd probably have that same theme were he to be added. As for Chun-Li, while it's true most SF content is specifically biased towards SF2, keep in mind Sephiroth didn't come with any non-FF7 content. How do we know Chun-Li wouldn't just come with even MORE SF2 content? Overall, I think these two are just bandwagon picks that everyone suddenly thinks is likely just because of Sephiroth.

Abstain on want. I have no opinions on either of them.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma xhowever many noms I get from this. I lost track of how many sentences I needed.
to be fair some of us thought they were likely before sephiroth
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
8,771
Location
Rhythm Heaven
I can't help but feel like we're only talking about these two because of Sephiroth. We're assuming that Sephiroth getting in means any third-party character from an already-repped franchise is eligible now.
I think these two are just bandwagon picks that everyone suddenly thinks is likely just because of Sephiroth.
Sorry to single you out specifically but since I'm seeing this assumption a lot I want to at least specify why I've been becoming increasingly confident in Chun-Li, why that does have to do with Sephiroth but why it doesn't have anything to do with arbitrarily expecting "additional reps".

For me it's not so much that the barriers have been broken for more characters from series like Sonic, Mega Man, Street Fighter... they are, but I feel like that won't come into play majorly until next game. Rather, certain characters can make it in as DLC in spite of being from an existing series, not because they are and that Sephiroth is bucking some trend. It's a reminder that character matters more than anything sometimes, and that a big name can stand on their own regardless of whether they're technically representing something new. Not because Chun-Li is added out of any necessity or even desire for a new Street Fighter character outright.

So enter Chun-Li who is among the very biggest names not in Smash yet. I think it goes without saying that Chun-Li's merit is absolutely there. She stands independently as representing herself. It's freakin Chun-Li, who would be added because she's Chun-Li and not because she's another Street Fighter 'rep'. The issue is people seeing everything in black and white and judging how many reps a series has, whether or not we're getting more new "reps"... that's not the major takeaway that should be gathered from Sephiroth. The message that everyone should be seeing is this:

Sephiroth was added because he's f**king Sephiroth. He's kind of a big deal, "additional FF7 rep" or otherwise. Absolutely hugely important and popular character in his own, independent right.

So, at least in my camp, Chun-Li is a character who I feel benefits from this particular sentiment on the basis of being just that significant of a character. Not because of a pattern or trend that, you're correct, will absolutely not be there - but Chun-Li doesn't really need that. It's just a wake up call to be like "oh hey, maybe we weighed that whole 'new worlds' thing a little too heavily" and not disqualifying characters with this sort of merit on misconstrued statements.

I mean, outside of both being from series that are already in Smash, Chun-Li and Sephiroth have pretty much nothing in common. Take "reps" out of the equation and there's no arbitrary pattern to be seen.

Sorry, I'm not trying to like, argue with people about this but I just want to clarify my stance on things because I feel the sentiment of "more additional reps" is really undermining the significance of Chun-Li in general and the overall significance of what Sephiroth's inclusion actually represents. I won't deny that's probably why some people see her as a plausibility but there's more going on than that for me.

Does that even make sense? I feel like this is clearer in my head than it is when I actually explain it.
 
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Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
63,047
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
[Rerate] Monokuma x215
Qbby x210
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x195
[Rerate] Neku x184
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x172
Crazy Dave x170
Worms x155

150 - 101

John Marston x150
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x150
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x135
Concept: Among Us character x135
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Marina Liteyears x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108

100 - 51

Stage: Bowser's Castle x96
Riptor x95
Boss: Rayquaza x90
Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Giygas x76
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: Far Cry rep x70

Echo (Bowser) x65
Henry Stickmin x65
Junpei (Zero Escape) x63

Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x55

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x52

50 - 25

Tetra x45
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x45
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x40
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x40
Mii Costume: Madeline x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
Stage: Tetris x20
Filia (Skullgirls) x19
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Senator Armstrong x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Estelle Bright x10
Mii Costume: Zagreus x10
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Firebrand x1

Marina Liteyears shakes more than 100 noms.

Peppino and A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters ascend to the over 50 sector of the list.

Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass and Mii Costume: Madeline escape the under 25 club.

Today's new nominees are a rerate of Master Hand, with 5 noms in hand, and Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages with 10.

Cutie Gwen Cutie Gwen unfortunately you missed out on the 10 noms for Cooking Mama's day. You had planned to give 5 to Velvet and 5 to Zagreus, how do you want to distribute the 5 you got?
Give em to Zag, even with the fixed schedule, Velvet's got loads of nominations. In fact, if I end up not meeting a quota between the two of them, go for Zagreus.
 

NintenZ

Smash Legend
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I respect that everyone has different opinions on these two but it's a little jarring to consistently see people rate Eggman higher and Chun-Li a good deal lower, specifically in citing that Sonic is in more desperate need of additional representation while Street Fighter is "represented well".

On the flipside of this, Sonic has two stages (both classic and modern) and substantial music tracks from every facet of its history in addition to two ATs. Street Fighter has one more character than Sonic, has a very good amount of music but its content (such as all of those aforementioned tracks) is limited almost entirely to SF2. If anything by this logic there's more supplement to expand on SF through a Chun-Li pack than there is for Sonic through an Eggman pack, since SFIII and Alpha are still largely untouched outside of a few spirits.

It's a matter of perspective I suppose. The quality of SF's representation is arguably better than Sonic's, but just because Ken is there doesn't mean Street Fighter got the red carpet rolled out or anything when so much of the series' history is absent. There's a lot of room for improvement on both ends, it's just a weird argument to use against Chun-Li while propping Eggman up is all.
Yeah I gotta agree here, it’s weird seeing people use “Representation” as an argument where that sounds more on the opinionated side than anything.

I don’t think Nintendo is looking closely at how representation is, although in Final Fantasy’s case it was exceptionally bad having the bare minimum in the game so I wouldn’t be surprised if they looked at that before adding Sephiroth. Regardless, in the grand picture, I don’t think representation is what matters here when deciding characters.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Messages
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TCT~Phantom
This was back during the previous fixed schedule. I mean I don't' mind Arle getting dropped from the fixed schedule too much since she can be renominated but still.


If Arle is dropped from the fixed schedule, does this mean her (185) noms are reinstated or null and void?
Gotcha, will fix the post in the discord and up front.
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
1,008
Sorry to single you out specifically but since I'm seeing this assumption a lot I want to at least specify why I've been becoming increasingly confident in Chun-Li, why that does have to do with Sephiroth but why it doesn't have anything to do with arbitrarily expecting "additional reps".

For me it's not so much that the barriers have been broken for more characters from series like Sonic, Mega Man, Street Fighter... they are, but I feel like that won't come into play majorly until next game. Rather, certain characters can make it in as DLC in spite of being from an existing series, not because they are and that Sephiroth is bucking some trend. It's a reminder that character matters more than anything sometimes, and that a big name can stand on their own regardless of whether they're technically representing something new. Not because Chun-Li is added out of any necessity or even desire for a new Street Fighter character outright.

So enter Chun-Li who is among the very biggest names not in Smash yet. I think it goes without saying that Chun-Li's merit is absolutely there. She stands independently as representing herself. It's freakin Chun-Li, who would be added because she's Chun-Li and not because she's another Street Fighter 'rep'. The issue is people seeing everything in black and white and judging how many reps a series has, whether or not we're getting more new "reps"... that's not the major takeaway that should be gathered from Sephiroth. The message that everyone should be seeing is this:

Sephiroth was added because he's f**king Sephiroth. He's kind of a big deal, "additional FF7 rep" or otherwise. Absolutely hugely important and popular character in his own, independent right.

So, at least in my camp, Chun-Li is a character who I feel benefits from this particular sentiment on the basis of being just that significant of a character. Not because of a pattern or trend that, you're correct, will absolutely not be there - but Chun-Li doesn't really need that. It's just a wake up call to be like "oh hey, maybe we weighed that whole 'new worlds' thing a little too heavily" and not disqualifying characters with this sort of merit on misconstrued statements.

I mean, outside of both being from series that are already in Smash, Chun-Li and Sephiroth have pretty much nothing in common. Take "reps" out of the equation and there's no arbitrary pattern to be seen.

Sorry, I'm not trying to like, argue with people about this but I just want to clarify my stance on things because I feel the sentiment of "more additional reps" is really undermining the significance of Chun-Li in general and the overall significance of what Sephiroth's inclusion actually represents. I won't deny that's probably why some people see her as a plausibility but there's more going on than that for me.

Does that even make sense? I feel like this is clearer in my head than it is when I actually explain it.
Then, do you agree that the same 3rd party company double dipping in the same pass is viable? Btw, that concept will come for rating someday.
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Chun Li

Chance: 60%
Every reason I can think of that's keeping her out of Smash is being knocked down one by one. "Spirits deconfirm", Min Min shows up. "No company will get a 2nd rep other than Nintendo", Steve shows up. "OK, no repeat 3rd party franchises", Sephiroth shows up. I got nothing else.


Want: 45%
I'd rather have Dante or Phoenix before we get a 3rd Street Fighter Character. There's more to Capcom than just Mega Man and Street Fighter. Chun-Li


Eggman
Chance: 45%
Similar reasons to Chun-Li. Not a lot keeping him out anymore, but I do feel less confidant about him for some reason

Want: 20%
Eggman is a cool option. Just one that, for some reason, I can't get excited for when I think about it. Probably just a lack of exposure, I've never played a Sonic game.

Noms: LoL rep x5
 

Swamp Sensei

Today is always the most enjoyable day!
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Um....Lost?
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Switch FC
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Jackie Chan in the hit 1993 action movie City Hunter
Chance: 3%
Sorry, Chun-Li, but I just don't see you happening.

Obviously, the reason Chun-Li's been in the spotlight has to do with the recent 2chan leak that claimed Chun-Li was allegedly considered for the base roster, but was passed over in favour of Ken. This, combined with the fact that all three characters in Fighter's Pass 2 were considered for the base game and the fact that the speculation community is pretty fixated on the idea of another third-party series getting a second character after Sephiroth's inclusion, many have started to hold up Chun-Li as a forerunner for one of the final three fighter slots.

However, I don't really buy this argument. The main reason people have eyes on this leak is that it claimed that Erdrick, the Luminary, Steve were intended for the base game, while Sephiroth was heavily considered for the base game before we knew any of this to be true. However, I think it's worth noting this isn't as prophetic as it seems on the surface. For starters, Vergeben had been relatively vocal about Erdrick and some form of Minecraft content during the base game's speculation, which led many to assume this was true information given Vergeben's outstanding track record during base game speculation. As such, the idea of Erdrick and Steve as cut base game characters is far from an original one. Likewise, the Luminary and Sephiroth were already in the public spotlight thanks to the Seven Squares leak. Given that all of the other Seven Squares candidates are discussed in the leak with the exception of Slime, who would presumably be off the table if Erdrick and the Luminary were the Dragon Quest characters, it's relatively likely that the leak's writer knew about Seven Squares and sought to address it to give it some legitimacy, getting lucky by claiming that the Luminary and Sephiroth were the other characters considered.

Similarly, there are two characteristics of this leak that basically confirm it as fake to me. First, the leak's writer is incredibly knowledgable about Sakurai's thought process, making claims like Lloyd and Yuri were both in the planning stages of Ultimate and Square were the ones to prioritize Erdrick over Sephiroth. This is an immediate red flag, as leakers are typically low-level employees who wouldn't have this much insight into the decision-making process. The suits making these top-level decisions are not going to risk their careers and enter a legal battle with multiple megacorps to earn internet points on an anonymous message board. A lot of fake leakers fail to consider this and end up including this degree of detail anyway.

Second, the leak's claim that Chun-Li, presumably a unique fighter, was replaced by Ken, an echo bordering semi-clone, is incredibly suspect. Sakurai is incredibly meticulous in attempting to maximize his development time. This is a man who prides himself on making a detailed project plan to ensure he can accomplish as much as possible from start to finish. Likewise, as anyone who has looked into the development history of Melee or Smash for Wii U/3DS knows, clones take far fewer resources to get off the ground. As such, this labour difference means it was basically impossible for Ken to replace Chun-Li's resources unless there was some extra content that came with Ken (which is unmentioned in the leak). As such, this ignorance in Sakurai's design philosophy not only detracts from the leak's overall credibility but makes it even more doubtful that the leaker is high enough in the corporate food chain to know when considered characters are getting replaced.

That being said, even without a leak, Chun-Li could still definitely get in. Much like how Sakurai praised Sephiroth for being gaming's biggest villain after Bowser, I could see him gunning for Chun-Li as gaming's leading lady after Peach. Nonetheless, she's owned by a company with arguably the internal fiercest competition for a spot in Smash. In particular, Monster Hunter is incredibly popular, unique, and has an upcoming timed exclusive with Nintendo next year. There's also the likes of Dante and Phoenix Wright, both of whom could realistically be Capcom's guy, given the recent revivals their series have seen. Alternatively, there's a reasonable chance we don't get any new Capcom characters in Ultimate's DLC, especially with there only being 3 remaining fighter's packs left.


I think Chun-Li's death sentence lies in a factor that has been neglected in this debate: Min Min. Now, I'm not going to say Chun-Li and Min Min can't co-exist in Smash, that'd be ridiculous. However, the issue lies in the motifs within Min Min's implementation. Occasionally, Sakurai will make creative choices when adding characters into Smash that allude to other characters in gaming or pop culture. For example, the fact that Duck Hunt is a team of a bird riding a mammal seems to be an overt nod to Banjo and Kazooie. Likewise, the fact that Min Min has kicks as a core tenant of her Smash moveset, even though she performed only a kick when back-dashing or air-dashing in ARMS, feels like a conscious attempt to make her closer to Chun-Li. In particular, her rapid jab is extremely similar to the Hyakuretsukyaku, Chun-Li's most famous move and arguably the most famous move in Street Fighter that doesn't belong to a shoto. I can definitely see where Sakurai was coming from in making this choice. If you're going to add female, Chinese martial artist to your fighting game, why not model her after the female, Chinese martial artist that was propelled into becoming one of gaming's biggest icons?

But therein lies the problem. If you're getting the real deal, why spend time making another character into a homage to their presence? Not only does it decrease the overall diversity among characters within Fighter's Pass 2, it feels like you're setting up your opening act to fail. It's kind of like if Duck Hunt and Banjo and Kazooie were to be added in a single wave of characters, why would you go out of your way to structure the former to follow the latter when the latter is coming anyways? It's this issue that makes me relatively confident in not seeing Chun-Li in the immediate future.

Want: 65%
Admittedly, I was pretty harsh on the Fighting Games' First Lady in my write-up on her chances. While Chun-Li was never been my Street Fighter main (that honour goes to Cammy), it's hard to not appreciate what Chun-Li would bring. She's nothing short of a massive icon that would really add to the atmosphere of Smash. Plus, c'mon, Samus vs. Chun-Li? Hype as ****.

That being said, I'd rather see Capcom get another franchise in before Street Fighter gets their third time at bat. Likewise, while I definitely agree that Street Fighter's supporting representation is currently lopsided towards Street Fighter II, I think comparing it to what Final Fantasy had prior to Sephiroth is seems a little farfetched. It definitely sucks that nearly all of Street Fighter's music is ripped straight from Street Fighter II, but there's enough tracks and spirits there to not make me think "Oh thank god, we're getting more Street Fighter content" when seeing Chun-Li like with Sephiroth

Plus, it's simultaneously amusing yet annoying to see a handful of users who consistently preached that characters like Waluigi, Bandana Waddle Dee, and Shadow were ineligible for a Fighter's Pack because they wouldn't have an overarching theme behind their supporting content, only to see this rule immediately go out the window as soon as Chun-Li became a discussion point.

I'm going to abstain on Eggman for the time being. I didn't expect my write-up on Chun-Li to get this large and I'm pretty beat. Plus, I don't really have a ton to say on the guy that hasn't been brought up already. Maybe I'll come back to him if something new comes to mind.
Honestly.

I think this post just convinced me that the leak is fake.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Hey so if we decide to abstain on today, how many nominations can we put in? I just want to put in noms, but since nobody has abstained entirely today, I don't know if the count stays at 5 or goes to 10 or 20 with it being double nom day.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Eggman

Chance: 10%
Yes a barrier has been broken by Sephiroth, but that doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen again. Eggman does have a lot going for him in a vacuum but I just don’t see it happening until next Smash.

Want:
Would be pretty happy.

Chun Li

Chance: 20%
Same as Eggman but she does have a leak going for her.

Want: 55%
More female characters is always a good thing, but I don’t really care for SF to begin with so I can’t go any higher.

Noms: Infernape x5
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Since it has been close to 48 hours, I am ending the day now.

Today we got the second round of pre existing third party franchises. Raiden from MGS, Zero from Megaman, and Alucard from Castlevania are all coming in today. Will they do better than in the past. Rate them in chance and want.

Tomorrow is an indie day, we will be rating Quote and Reimu. Predict their scores.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
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New Jersey
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Songs for today's characters:

Raiden


Zero


Alucard

 

DaUsername

Smash Ace
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Aug 6, 2013
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909
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In that corner over there
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I don't have enough time to write anything for Eggface or Chumlee so I'll just abstain.
Raiden prediction: 15%
Zero prediction: 10%
Alucard prediction 10%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x10
 

Mushroomguy12

Smash Hero
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Messages
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Nintendo Land Theme Parks, Incorporated
Raiden

Chance: 1%


Considering Metal Gear wasn't even deemed important enough to be brought back for Smash 4 and is only in Ultimate because of "Everyone is Here", I don't see them going for a second character, much less a completely unique one. The most I could see this series getting is a Big Boss echo in a hypothetical echo pass.

Want: 0%

Sorry, I was never really that interested in Metal Gear. Also I don't like Raiden's design anyway. If they had to get a newcomer, I'd rather just an echo like Big Boss.

Zero

Chance: 1%


Being an Assist Trophy kills his chances for me honestly, of course it doesn't make him impossible but it certainly doesn't help him. There are also other Megaman characters that would make for easier echoes like Proto Man.

Want: 55%

I liked Mega Man X and Mega Man Zero quite a lot back in the day. I think he'd have a cool moveset too. While he's not at the top of my list, I wouldn't mind him either.

Alucard

Chance: 1%

Same as Zero, being an Assist Trophy doesn't help him. Castlevania also got two characters in Ultimate already.

Want: 20%

He seems cool but I'm not enough of a Castlevania fan to have him in my list. Maybe in a future Smash game's base roster, I'd be more open to him.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Jul 1, 2014
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Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
As you can see, this is an opinionated rating. Please don't try to argue against it. But you probably won't listen to me anyway, will you?

Chance: 0% It ****in pains me to say it, but there's no way Alucard's getting in. Let's start with the positives though, Alucard's the one Assist we know for a fact was considered playable. Good sign for the future, but the real kicker is that his exclusion was because it would feel wrong not to include a Belmont despite Sakurai claiming he had the most CV votes on the ballot. Fantastic, so why the 0 rating? Because of one thing. I don't see them promoting ATs at all, ATs and Mii Costumes have historically been a consolation prize for said characters and I simply don't see Alucard being seen as a special exception due to him being considered in the past.

Want: 100% Which is a damn shame as I ****ing adore CastleVania. I still haven't played SotN yet, though I own Requiem so I just need to get my hands on a PS5, but I have played Julius Mode in Dawn of Sorrow, and damn, Alucard was incredibly fun there to the point he was my most used character. The Netflix show also let me appreciate Alucard a lot even if I strongly disliked his arc in the third season due to being meaningless and wasted potential. In terms of what Alucard can do, I think it'd be laughable to suggest he'd be unoriginal or boring, almost as much as someone trying to make him boring (Still not over Brawlfan1 literally making a fanmoveset for him that includes Holy Water with nothing different smfh), my only real issue with Alucard is that they'd get Yuri Lowenthal for his VA, he's a fine VA worthy of the fame he's gotten, but holy **** he is the worst Alucard I've heard, he just sounds off and I hate it.

FISSION MAILED

Chance: 1% Raiden's actually pretty interesting here, he's a Spirit but Min Min showed that this may not be an issue for him. He's easily the most popular suggestion for a second Metal Gear rep, especially as MGR, his most fondly remembered appearance, has zero content in the game at all. This is a good sign for him, but I'm not sure I see him happening, there's loads of potential characters to include and although Raiden would likely be a rushdown focused swordsman, which is pretty unique, I just don't see him getting picked over countless other options. Then again I'd never expect Sephiroth, but I'm going to assume he was a special case and that more characters from already repped franchises is going to be a rarity from here on out.

Want: 100% Raiden's a very interesting character to me, not just because of the highly praised portrayal in MGR, which is his most iconic depiction nowadays, but because of the reception towards the first time we saw him back in MGS2. Raiden's got a lot of interesting social commentary around him in all sorts of ways alongside being more human than Snake felt, even if everyone understandably prefers Snake. Raiden was so hated by fans for a long ass time that Rising making him incredibly popular is honestly amazing, even if Raiden's reception included thinly-veiled homophobia (Looking at you Snake Eater). Nowadays he's a cyborg ninja, which are already 2 cool things on their own, but now he has the option of bringing in songs from Rising, which I think everyone can agree is the biggest absence in the game now that we have One Winged Angel. I'd especially love Collective Conciousness, not just because it's good, but also as a social experiment to see if people who whine about politics in video games will pretend it's apolitical. I also played Raiden when I played PSABR at a friend and hey, he was pretty fun in all my 3 minutes of playing him.

Ready for some REAL Lightning Loops?

Chance: 0% Similar to Alucard, I cannot see AT promotions happening as they've been consolation prizes, the only people seeing them as insults are massive crybabies who can't handle when they can't get exactly what they want. However, Zero's unique here as he's got it worst than almost every other AT as he got his Mii Costume back, Mii Costumes are also consolation prizes, especially as it was from Smash 4, which suggests it sold well enough to sell again as Zero wasn't able to make it into the game. This is especially important to me, as if Zero, or any other Mega Man character for that matter, was going to happen, why not save the costumes for the wave coming alongside said character? Sadly, there's no explanation beyond the tragic conclusion, he's not making it into game.

Want: 100% Despite the rule of Zero being a top tier in every game he's in, I love Zero, he's got a cool design and even cooler moves. I never actually played as Zero in anything besides TvC as I've only played X1, none of the others or his own series, but I do plan on catching up, I already shout out 'Hadangeki!' When I spam Blade Beam as Cloud after all. Seeing Zero's AT made me pop the **** off because I thought "Wait what the **** Zero's in the game?" In terms of content, I'm very unfamiliar but holy ****, we absolutely need Cannonball, a song that felt missing when we found out the spinoffs could get music too. I'm also interesting in seeing how he'd work as a whole, especially as one of his most iconic moves is Sougenmu, which creates a copy who mimics Zero in every way but with a short delay.


Velvet Crowe x15
Zagreus x15
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,826
Location
winnipeg
Alucard

Chance: 15%. First of all, he was considered for Ultimate, so his chance is quite decent in comparison to most of the assists. But since he is an assist trophy (and a tough one at that), his chance might be diminished, but as the impossible is happening, the limits are disappearing.

Want: 55%. He would be a fun character to play as, with some deadly moves that would make him unique as a Castlevania Rep. Overall, he would be a decent choice for a Smash Bros rep.

Raiden

Chance: 20%. It would not be the first time he was in a crossover platform fighter, but I think he could have a chance to appear as well. Also as a right now, he is one of the most likely Konami reps to appear in the game.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as and I can see him and Snake go into a fight. But overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep, but he might use a moveset from PAS.

Zero

Chance: 10%. Just like Alucard, he is an assist trophy, but he would also have a slim chance of showing up. But he is also a Mii Costume, which would also hurt his chances of being playable in this game.

Want: 80%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him and Megaman partner with each over in a fight against opponents like R.O.B and Shulk in a tag team match. Overall, Zero would make a great choice for a Smash Bros Rep.

Prediction: Quote (15%) and Reimu (15%)

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle Castle and 5 for Echo: Bowser
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Writing Team
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
3,965
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TCT~Phantom
Alucard

0.5% Chance

I know we are reevaluating characters from preexisting third parties, but this honestly seems like an outside shot. For starters, Castlevania got the works already in terms of its representation, so I do not think it has much wiggle room for more. Being an AT already hurts his chances even more so. The main saving grace is we know Sakurai briefly considered him over the Belmonts, so it is a possibility. But this is truly something I doubt will happen right now.

100% want

…which is a damn shame because I love this character. Alucard has so much cool stuff you can give him. Even going beyond what his AT does, his moveset in SotN is so good it would be an awesome inclusion. But even more so than that, SoTN is just so good I would love to see Alucard get in. It is such a gem that getting Alucard would be such an awesome, curveball choice. Shame it won’t happen.

Zero

0.1% Chance

Déjà vu. Look, Zero has most of the same issues as Alucard. He has an AT, which is already a steep hill to climb. But he also has a Mii Costume as DLC. The combo of those two puts him in such a bad position. While he arguably would be the choice for a second Mega Man rep, I doubt this will happen…

100% Want

Once again, I would love this character. The Megaman Zero games are some of the most criminally underrated games of all time. Megaman has a ton of awesome music to pull from that would create an awesome fighters pass. Zero himself is such a cool character. His color scheme, his sword, his mullet, he exudes cool. An awesome choice that sadly is not happening.

Raiden

1% Chance

This is the most likely just because the hurdles the other two have big hurdles to getting in. All Raiden has is a spirit, which as Min Min has shown us, is not a huge hurdle. That being said, Metal Gear is kinda not in the greatest space rn. It also does not help that Revengence, Raiden’s last big game, was almost a decade ago. He also has competition from Big Boss, who arguably would be the second Metal Gear rep. I doubt that if Konami was approached for another character, they would go with Raiden.

100% Want

It is such a shame that we rated three characters I would find hype that tbh are not happening. Revengence is such a blast. It has such good music and tbh Raiden would be an awesome choice in smash. TBH, more Metal Gear content is always good in my book. Metal gear is amazing. While I would prefer Big Boss as Snake’s echo fighter, this is still a great choice.

Mike Haggar x 30

Quote prediction 3.44%
Reimu prediction 33.33% (there will be outliers here...)
 
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DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Raiden

Chance: 0.5% -
I'm just not seeing it for this guy. Metal Gear didn't get much in the way of new content for Ultimate in favor of Castlevania. That combined with the bad blood between them and Kojima means that Metal Gear content is likely low on the priority list. Combine that with the fact that all Metal Gear content was cut for Smash 4 and primarily brought back because of "Everyone is Here" really seals it for him. Furthermore, his fan demand isn't exactly the highest, and as far as I'm aware he doesn't have any upcoming games to promote. Raiden certainly has merit, but I don't think it'll be enough to overcome these disadvantages.

Want: 5% - Raiden looks kinda cool but that's about it for me. Metal Gear has been waiting as long as Sonic for a second rep, but with only three slots left in Ultimate he really isn't a priority for me. Furthermore, I've watched my friend play through both Metal Gear Rising games and seen Raiden in action, and to be honest I was bored out of my mind. Snake's and Big Boss' games were way more interesting gameplay and visual-wise, whereas I just couldn't really find anything I liked about the rising games. So Raiden also loses points for that.



Zero:

Chance: 0% -
Unless your name is Waluigi (who's disclusion was even acknowledged by Nintendo so he's a special case), you're probably not being promoted. Even if it was the ARMS' director's wishes, the fact still remains that mascot Spring Man was passed over. Thus this knocks his chances to zero for me (haha, Zero got a zero!) which is unfortunate since he definitely has other things going in his favor. He's a VERY popular Megaman Character (to the point of becoming playable in X3, X4 being basically about him, and basically getting his own subseries) and gets a decent amount of Merchandise, Mega Man X and Zero have little content in Smash so Zero has a lot of material for a challenger pack, and Capcom still has a strong relationship with Nintendo. There's also the Monster Hunter costumes that are still missing, so a Capcom rep could really be coming. But as an assist trophy I just don't see Zero as still in the running.

Want: 30% - Never really been into the X games but I wouldn't really complain if Mega Man got another rep. Zero has plenty of cool content to pull from Mega Man X and Zero, and would no doubt have an interesting toolkit despite being another sword user. Though he's a choice I'd be more happy with if he were Smash 6 base game rather than DLC now, since there's other franchises I'd want to see prioritized with our remaining three slots. One of those frranchises is Ace Attorney, another Capcom franchise, who Zero would deconfirm. So while I certainly wouldn't mind Zero, I'd rather wait until another Capcom franchise gets repped before double-dipping on Mega Man.



Alucard

Chance: 0% -
Has many of the same caveats as Zero, being an assist who isn't Waluigi really kills his chances. And like Zero he also has plenty of merits up his sleeve that are similar to Zero's. He can pull content from other Castlavania games untouched by Richter and Simon, thus making for a well-rounded challenger pack. Konami still has a good relationship with Nintendo, and the amount of content Castlevania got despite being a dormant franchise for them definitely helps Alucard's case in the future. H***, he was even considered for the base game instead of the Belmonts, but was untilately rejected. If this were Smash 6 base speculation I'd consider him a frontrunner. But for now, it's back to the coffin with his existing assist trophy.

Want: 10% - Like Sephioroth (before he showed his content) and Zero, it's all a matter of timing. Castlevania's already gotten a lot of content with the base game, and with only three slots left, I want to see either new franchises, or existing ones that really need it, in instead. Don't get me wrong, Alucard has a lot of potential and would be cool to see join the roster, but I'd rather see him saved until later. Smash 6 base game? Fantastic choice! That score would definitely shoot up! But in the current DLC situation, I really don't think Castlevania should be a priority.



Nominations:
4x Strategy rep x5
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5

Predictions:
Quote - 18.44%
Reimu - 52.64% - Reimu rating days are always a ****show, expect a lot of massive overrates from her fans to pad the average.
 
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3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
our lord and savior, zero the hero

Chance: 0%: Yeah, he's not happening. Capcom has plenty of other characters to choose from like I said with Chun Li, and on top of that, Zero is an assist trophy. And a DLC Mii Costume. That's deader then Geno right there. As well, Mega Man has plenty of content in the game and I doubt Nintendo would ask for more at this rate when Capcom has so many other franchises to choose from. While Zero is definently a shoe in for the second Mega Man rep, it's doubtful that we'll even get a second Mega Man rep.Which. .
Want: 100%: Is a crying shame. Mega Man is a franchise I adore, and Zero in particular. The Mega Man Zero games are some of my favorites I've ever played, and representation for them is needed in Smash Bros. On top of that, Zero is one of my favorite fighting game characters ever. He's busted most of the time, but god he is a joy to play. And as well, the OSTs that we could get are great. Departure, Falling Down, Cannonball, Neo Arcadia's theme, etc; the Zero games have some of the best Mega Man OSTs, and them getting in Smash Bros would be excellent. So yes, put Zero in Smash. I beg of you.

THE SKATER MAN IN FLESH
Chance: 1%: I see him as more likely then Zero due to the utter lack of Konami DLC content, and much less franchises competing. However, he's still not very likely, considering the fact that he is an Assist Trophy. As well, Konami is one of the less cooperative companies, and Castlevania already does have a ton of content in the game, so much that I don't know the entirety of what they'd put for an Alucard DLC pass. And for stages, there's a couple of options,but considering Dracula's Castle is already in the game, it definently makes a stage a much bigger issue then most franchises.
Want: 100%: I have a twitter dedicated to putting this guy in the game. I love Castlevania. It's a franchise I really love, especially Rondo of Blood and Symphony of the Night. And Alucard has a wide and diverse moveset across his many apperances that could make a really fun Smash Moveset. As well, Castlevania has some great music that's been left out, and more spirits would be great.As well, Konami actually being cooperative would just be a really cool thing to see, because that raises that Castlevania and Metal Gear can return in the future.

Genocide Jack, but not the Danganronpa one
Chance: 1.1%: He gets slightly higher chance then Alucard due to the fact that he isn't an Assist Trophy, but that's about it. Metal Gear is the only cut third party franchise, and the very fact that it was cut greatly diminishes the chances. As well, there are other metal gear characters besides Raiden that could be far easier to implement; namely, Liquid Snake and Big Boss. And Metal Gear basically being a dead in the water franchise makes it impossible that a promotional rep would be added, taking off even more points.
Want: 100%: I love Metal Gear, and Raiden is a sick character. Especially with his varied moveset in Rising that could work well into a Smash Bros moveset, and the fact that we could get another Metal Gear stage would be great! Especially if it was the rig from MGS II or the location of the final battle from Rising. And Metal Gear has an incredible OST, especially in Rising. "It Has To Be This Way" in particular is a standout, and getting more Metal Gear representation that isn't so basic is something I desperately want in Smash Bros. So yes, give me Jack the Ripper.
Nominations: Peppino x30
 
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