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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Abstain on Magolor.

Fulgore

Chance: 5%
It's not that he's a bad character or wouldn't sell well. It's just that Microsoft has two characters, and he's nowhere near on the level of Master Chief. Killer Instinct is a pretty notable series on its own, but overall between obscure and niche. We have multiple combo heavy characters lately now too. Kazuya is something similar to what I'd expect, with very unique combo potential and multiple abnormal attack options(more tilts, etc.) That said, he'd still be a pleasant surprise, but I always viewed him very unlikely before we even got Banjo & Kazooie, as that duo, Steve, and Master Chief are the biggest of Microsoft characters. Being the mascot of the series also makes him a likely choice to represent KI.

Want 100%
Fulgore is the mascot of Killer Instinct, and a damn cool character at that. While I'm a huge fan of the classic version, he's still awesome in the 2013 version too. I've loved Killer Instinct since its release, and even enjoyed the watered down Gameboy game. Fulgore's my top favorite character, with a cool slick design, tons of unique moves, and some shotoclone moves for variety too.

E.M.M.I. 20%
Off The Hook 31%

Noms to Agumon(I presume it's another Rerate?)
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
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Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,520
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Drenthe, NL
I Fulgore 💀
Chance: 0%
This pass already had a Microsoft character and also just had a combo heavy FG character. For CP11 I believe in Nintendo keeping it varied and not having the final fighter be either of those. Killer Instinct may be considered a classic but at the same time, it's no Halo and there hasn't really been done anything with the IP since the 2013 reboot.

Want: Abstaining

Void-Faced character
Chance: 1%
While you could argue Magolor to be a rising star, he just places 2nd at best in a lot of areas when it comes to unrepped Kirby character. Bandana Dee has Magolor beat in the things that matter most. Demand, iconicness, attendance, probably more staying power. Magolor in comparison only has more plot relevance and arguably movepool potential, which I'm not sure will matter much to Nintendo when it comes to Kirby. Magolor also suffers way more from 'Sakurai bias' than Dee ever will since unlike him Sakurai had absolutely no hand in creating him and there also isn't any room for him to shove a SuperStar reference somewhere in there. A Kirby character being the final character also really hinges on a soon-to-be-announced untitled new Kirby game to be an excuse to promote the series and Dee is just simply likelier to play a bigger roll in that than Magolor.

Want: 35%
I believe I gave my noms to him about halfway through this pass secretly hoping Dee would've been confirmed so I could increase my want score for Mago. But he didn't and the final character is around the corner and I honestly didn't expect Magolor's day to happen before we know who that is. Now I'd certainly take all the new Kirby content we could get and Magolor definitely has some amazing moveset potential. That, I agree with. But at the end of the day, Bandana Dee just still takes priority here. Both deserve to get in imo but between the two, I'd say Magolor is better saved for next game.

E.M.M.I: 9.70%
OTH: 6.35%
Gene x15
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Lying eggs

Chance: 1% Say it with me everyone
download (10).jpeg

Nintendo's MO for first party DLC doesn't fit this character. Though to be fair, Magolor does have more use in side stuff like stealing money in the mobile games so he's got it better than most non Bandana Dee picks. Unlime Bandana Dee though, Magolor doesn't really have a lot of fan demand anymore which could have been a saving grace but alas.

Want: 35% Magolor is ok. He's got more to work with than most as he's not just a mage, but specifically a summoner, which has a lot of potential, but at the same time, I didn't like him much in Star Allies either so this is pretty much eh unless Sakurai goes crazy.

I swear we rated Fulgore not too long ago

Chance: 1% Nothing dictates we can't get another MS character, though it is indeed unlikely as Fulgore doesn't really have anything going for him beyond critical acclaim. He's not popular and the competition is very steep, just a bad hand dealt all around

Want: 90% I have yet to play Killer Instinct but honestly, just looking at Fulgore made me curious, then I found out he's actually sick as **** with his Pip system in KI 2013, making him more involved with resources. I can very easily see this translated as EX moves in Smash but done better than Cloud's Limit and honestly, you'd have to be damn stupid not to want Mick Gordon's tracks in Smash. Fulgore's very aesthetically pleasing and unique for Smash so despite how I dislike Rare, I have to give them credit, they nailed this one thing in particular. Only real negatives are that I have a lot more preferences.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Sukapon x175
[Rerate] Gene x150
Lugia x130
[Rerate] Agumon x130
Legends Trainer x130
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
Concept: Dynasty Warriors character x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Echo (Olimar) x76

100 - 51

Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards x70
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x50
Nabbit x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Kamek x40
Omori x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Mii Costume: Rayman x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Mii Costume: Scorpion x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
Kraid x10
King Harkinian x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Concept: Dynasty Warriors character joins the top fourteen in ninth place. Echo (Olimar) lands in fourteenth place. The pair is enough to kick More ATs as one new item, Dwight Fairfield, Rocket League rep, and SNES-era Final Fantasy rep off the top fourteen.
 

fogbadge

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Messages
21,125
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Scotland
thats the last time i help rebuild his ship

chances: 0% come on guys this isnt healthy. sakurai does not bother with kirby games that arent his, he is gonna stick with his trio and we all need to accept that. we toad fans accepted that and, well it didnt make us feel any better but at least we didnt become annoying. where was i? ah yes, even without the dreaded bias magolor doesnt really have much going for him that bandana dee doesnt have more of. much much more of. i just cant envision a scenario where we get. well none that are plausible in the real world.

want: 10% i'd take him just to have another kirby character. id take him just to have a nice kirby pack. some more music would be a good thing and i stage set on his ship would be cool. although are several kirby characters id prefer and i probably would play him much but ill take it. thats all really.

abstain on fulgore, ive forgotten everything i learned in the character exploration thread. noms go to legends trainer.
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,847
Location
winnipeg
Magolor
Chance: 5%. With one slot left, Magolor’s chance appears lows. But coming from a franchise that Sakurai created could be enough? With still only 3 Kirby characters in the roaster, it would appear unlikely, but many unlikely things happened in Smash, so who knows.
Want: 70%. Magolor would be fun to play as and I can have him and King Dedede fight Kirby and Meta Knight in a 2v2 fight. Overall, Magolor would make a good Smash Bros rep.

Fulgore
Chance: 5%. Again with one slot left, Fulgore chance is quite low. And I don’t know if he would be represented in the game, as with many other franchises due to that one slot.
Want: 50%. Fulgore could be fun to play as however, and that should be good enough. Overall, Fulgore would make a decent Smash Bros rep.
Prediction: Off the Hook (5%) and E.M.M.I (0%)
Noms: 5 for Lugia
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
ULTRA COMBO!!!!!!

Chance: 4%

Killer Instinct is a classic Rare series. It became a popular arcade game known for its long as **** combos and was successful enough to get sequels and a revival in 2013. The one problem with choosing a Killer Instinct character is that there isn't exactly a frontrunner. There are several characters that make sense to be the rep and while Fulgore is one of them, there is also Jago, Orchid, and others. But the biggest problem is my believe in there being no double dips. And frankly, if we get another Microsoft character for this pass, I'd totally bet on it being Chief.

Want: 95%

Killer Instinct is god dam awesome. I have the reboot on Xbox One and it's one of my favorite fighting games. Everything about it is so cool: The character designs, music by Mick ******** Gordon, the jaw-dropping combos, and the meaty sounds that make every hit feel very impactful. Among all of the awesomeness, Fulgore is a prime example of the rad nature of the game. He has a great design, a badass theme, plasma blades, and a chest beam. So yeah if you couldn't tell, I love Killer Instinct (at least the 2013 version. I tried the first game and I got my behind handed to me compared to the remake which has more difficulty settings) and I would love for it to get the Smash recognition.

__________________________________

Magolor

Chance: 5%

It's hard to pinpoint his chances. On one hand there isn't anything that directly hurts his chances but on the other hand there are points that need to be addressed. First, the common point that Sakurai seems to avoid newer Kirby content for some reason. Second, while I've seen Magolor receive some demand, Bandana Dee is the crowd favorite and when it comes to importance, Dee is basically the 4th party member at this point so it's hard for me to imagine anyone else getting in except for maybe Marx if they want to upgrade him to playable and a few others who could be darkhorses.

Want: 60%

Sure, I'll take him. I like his design, I enjoyed him in Star Allies, and I'm down for another Kirby rep. Plus he's a mage/summoner so there's some really cool moveset potential there.

Predictions:
E.M.M.I - 8%
Off the Hook - 3%

Noms: B.J Blazkowicz xMax (Using up my 15 extra noms)
 
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Laniv

Smash Champion
Joined
Apr 20, 2014
Messages
2,003
Traitorous Egg

Chance: 9%

Allow me to repeat what I said about Bandana Dee: While Magolor does have an interesting moveset right in front of him and is moderately popular, there still remains one crucial, in this case fatal hurdle. Sakurai is not terribly fond of violently allergic averse to modern Kirby content. That, combined with the fact that Bandana Dee is the clear frontrunner for a new Kirby character, does not bode well for Magolor's chances.

Want: 97%

He ain't Bandana Dee, but he'll do. I've grown fond of him over the years, in spite of everything. Plus, more villain rep is always a plus, right?
...He still counts as a villain, right?


Abstain on Fulgore

Predictions for EMMI: 9% Chance, 42% Want
Predictions for Off The Hook: 6% Chance, 35% Want

Nominate Nabbit x 5
 

Sari

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Magolor

Chance: 0%
I'm in the camp that if we're getting another first party at this point, it's going to be either a promo pick or a super popular pick.

Kirby has nothing coming up so Magolor as a promo pick can't really happen. Even if something were announced next week, it'd be too late for this pass.

Would Magolor count as a super popular pick? Well from what I understand he is pretty popular and would probably be one of the more likely Kirby candidates. Unfortunately, Magolor has a giant hurdle in the form of a small little spear guy: Bandana Dee. Whether it be as a Smash candidate or just the Kirby series in general, Dee is just way more popular than Magolor. Also it's pretty clear at this point that Sakurai favors the Kirby games he's worked on over the newer ones. There's no way he's going to go with the outrageous idea of repping new Kirby content with Magolor, when instead he could be designing yet another Kirby Super Star/Green Greens stage that everyone is obviously clamoring for.

Completely unrelated to this rating but while looking at Kirby stuff on the wiki to see the spread of series content, I learned that we almost got a Mario Land Game Boy stage but it was turned into the Kirby Game Boy stage. Not only that, having a Game Boy stage would've been the perfect time to give Tetris a stage. Curse you Sakurai bias.

Want: Abstain
Never really got into the Kirby series so I won't give a want score.

-----

Fulgore

Chance: 0%
Fulgore is a Microsoft character which poses two major issues. The first is that we already got Steve in this pass. Now I don't think that 3rd party double dips are impossible, but at the same time it's easier to see one Microsoft character happening than two. The second major issue here is Master Chief. Halo is bigger both in the west and in Japan than Killer Instinct (which AFAIK is limited to just a small cult following there). If we were to ever get another Microsoft character then it's looking to be Chief as the frontrunner.

It doesn't help that we just got Kazuya who is another fighting game character. Obviously the Killer Instinct rep won't play exactly like Kazuya, but they'd most likely have the fighting game input/facing mechanic that the other true fighting game characters have. If this pass really did have two true fighting game characters, I feel like they'd be spread out in the past rather than be revealed back-to-back.

Also given how the last two fighting characters went (Min Min and Kazuya), there's no clear answer for who the rep for Killer Instinct could be. They could go with Fulgore since it's a fitting rep for the series similar manner to Min Min, however they could also go with Jago or Orchid since they are the protagonists and could have more moveset potential similar to Kazuya. Not to mention Kazuya got in over Heihachi despite the latter being more popular and previously considered by Sakurai himself.

Want: Abstain
I've never played KI so I won't give an actual score. When it comes to other Rare characters I'd prefer Conker though, and for general Microsoft reps I'd prefer Master Chief.

-----

E.M.M.I. chance prediction: 6.40%
Off the Hook chance prediction: 3.00%

Nominations:
Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards x20
 

Iko MattOrr

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Magolor:

Chance: 10%

Kirby Star Allies is one of the best selling Kirby games of all times, according to some sources it sold about 3 millions of copies, which is the second best result after Kirby's Dream Land (GB)'s 5 millions. Despite this, Smash has little content from this game, it didn't even receive a spirit event or anything.
While it's not really likely, it's still possible that they will decide to put a character in the game to promote Kirby Star Allies, in the same vein as they did with ARMS.
Like I said in another thread a few days ago, if they are planning to add a Kirby Star Allies rep in Smash, it's going to be a character Kirby Star Allies is famous for, so either:

  • the Three Mage Sisters, who are very iconic and representative of the game; they were used in its marketing from the beginning, starting with Francisca.
  • one of the Dream Friends, because the game got its own DLC hype cycle and it became very popular for that; KSA is the game that let you play as all the old friends of Kirby, it's famous for that and that's one of the game's selling point.

Kirby Star Allies received mixed reviews due to its bland level design and very low difficulty level, but some people changed opinion about it when the DLC content dropped; I've even read some people saying that the DLCs saved the game.

The Dream Friends are a group of several characters, and among them there are also the default ones, King Dedede, Metaknight and Bandana Waddle Dee; though the game is not famous for a playable Waddle Dee, Dedede or Metaknight, nor for the helpers: Kirby Star Allies is the game that lets you play as the old, unused and almost forgotten characters from across all the series: the game made you play as Marx, it brought back Adeleine after almost 20 years of not appearing in the series not even in cameos, etc. That's what makes Kirby Star Allies special, and that's the reason for why I think that if they go for the Dream Friends route, there's no way that they will choose Bandana Waddle Dee, the default option that was not even part of the DLC hype cycle.

Though, there are a couple of things to consider:
  • Marx is one of the most popular Dream Friends, but he's already in Smash as a boss, so I don't see him being also a playable character in the same game
  • Dark Meta Knight could get an unique moveset based on mirror gimmicks, but just like Dark Samus, I can't see him being in Smash in a different way than an echo fighter or a skin (and he, along with Galacta Knight, already has a skin reference so...)
  • Kazuya has a move that works very similar to one of Gooey's moves, both mechanically and conceptually: I don't think they would put two fighters with a similar trait like this in the same fighter pass, so I think Gooey is out. (Kazuya can transform into a devil and shoot electric lasers, both horizontally or angled, also while floating mid-air; Gooey does the same thing except he becomes a "Mock Matter" instead of a devil, which means he transforms into a Dark Matter like thing, an evil entity across the Kirby series which is not a literal devil but it's conceptually similar enough).

(it's a reference of this vvv can't find a legit screenshot from Dream Land 2 GB so here we go with a Mass Attack one)


So, I think that the Dream Friends who would work well as a Smash fighter to represent Kirby Star Allies are either the Three Mage Sisters, or one between Rick-Kine-Coo, Adeleine&Ribbon, Daroach, Magolor, Taranza and Susie. Magolor is pretty popular so I think he has a chance after all, but considering how unpredictable Smash DLCs became and how many "if" he needs in order to be chosen, I can't go over 10% at best.


Want: 100%

My most wanted is Adeleine, but I really want any kirby character except Bandana Waddle Dee because I think he's boring.
Kirby's Return to Dream Land (Wii) is one of my least favorite Kirby games in the series, and at first I didn't even like Magolor that much, but over the years he grew on me and I really wouldn't mind him now; especially how they transformed him from the evil Marx rip-off into the greedy shopkeeper he became recently in the Kirby Clash series, I think he became a funny character, and his connections with the series' lore (the ancients, Another Dimension, the Master Crown, etc). make him even more interesting, since all those elements became recurring.

Any Kirby Character with potential of unique gameplay and crazy gimmicks has my 100% want, and Magolor would be unique enough I think.


Abstain on everything else
 
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JCKirbs

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Mango, Mago, Egg

Chance: 3%

He's pretty much in the same boat as Bandana Dee, but considerably worse in my view.

I would say that a game like Star Allies would've boosted his chances, but the post-launch Dream Friends hardly have a genuine connection to the game aside from being fun additions to toy around with and be nostalgic towards. I'd also say that Bandana Dee promoting Star Allies would also be a stretch considering his lack of genuine involvement in the story aside from being the first Dream Friend encountered. Kirby, Meta Knight, and Dedede, Hyness, and the Mage Sisters are the only characters of which you'd actually primarily remember because of their heavy involvement in the game's story, but I don't even see the latter characters joining the battle either. It would just be too random in my eyes, and the Kirby series isn't like ones like Xenoblade or Fire Emblem with constantly rotating casts.

Overall, I don't see any new Kirby characters getting into Ultimate at this point (except perhaps Bandana Dee when considering his popularity standpoint, but he currently doesn't have much to stand on right now nonetheless), and Magolor is no exception to me.

Want: 50%

Yeah, I'll still put in a good word for the guy regardless though.

I think that Kirby Fighters 2 in particular provided him with a good spotlight in terms of his general abilities, and it honestly made him look just like a Smash fighter.
Moves like his Magic Spheres/Revolution Orbs/Revolution Flame, Deadly Needles, Surge, Gem Apple Bombs, Ultra Sword, and Vanish are pretty simple, but very neat and flashy moves which I think could benefit from being within a Smash Bros. setting as well.
Also, he's pretty much a pioneer of Modern Kirby and he's more than just a one-stop shoppe character at this point, so his inclusion wouldn't feel jarring either.

Granted I still would like Bandana Dee to join in first, but I think it would also be cool if Magolor also came in right behind him with his own invitation one day too.

Abstain on Fulgore.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
A crowning achievement in jackassery

Chance: 3%
I think Kirby as a franchise is not in a bad place to get that coveted final spot. It has two games on the Switch with Star Allies and Fighters 2, with another one basically confirmed to be on the way. Said unannounced title is likely to be Kirby's attempt at a BotW/Odyssey style reinvention as the series' first 3D title. So it can be said that it's a thriving series that would be a natural fit to get a synergy-friendly fighter in Smash, without having to be an outright shill (I don't consider Min Min and Pythra to be shills, shills are obvious, get-it-while-it's-hot plays like Byleth). As a 2018 Switch exclusive that got pretty much nothing in Ultimate, Star Allies is very similar to the other first party games that got a rep in FP2.

However, I don't know if all this plays in Magolor's favor. While he's popular, he doesn't hold a candle to the juggernaut that is Dee, both in the Smash fandom and the Kirby one. It's hard to imagine a timeline where he isn't the fourth Kirby character. The only reason I can imagine is Sakurai's obvious disregard for everything Kirby that he didn't make. But if that affects Dee (a character that technically debuted in his game Super Star and only got fleshed out in later entries) it will definitely shut out Magolor who debuted in Return to Dream Land. We'd likely just get Marx, boss fight be damned.

Magolor does make a strong case for a fifth Kirby rep if we ever get one, and can be considered more of a representative for modern Kirby in general (he is, after all, the face of the "villain who later turns good" that has defined so much of the storytelling and lore in the modern era, Dedede nonwithstanding). And there is technically a way in for him: if Sakurai doesn't mind a modern Kirby rep (big if) but still won't add Dee because of the same idiocy that keeps him from adding Toad (but not Piranha Plant for whatever reason) then I guess Magolor would skip to the front of the line. Would be pretty illogical and there's a lot of hypotheticals, but hey, this is Smash.

Want: 95%
I think Dee should be first but after him? I'd love the evil egg.

Glass half full (gore)

Chance: 0%
We already got our Microsoft rep this go. Unlike characters like Dovahkiin, Fulgore was owned by Microsoft long before the pass was decided. There's no loophole for him.

Plus, we just got a fighting game character in Kazuya so I don't think it's likely that we get a second one back to back. And if we got a Microsoft double dip, I imagine it would be for a certain green spartan.

Want: 75%
I love Killer Instinct. Gold is up there with some of the greatest in the genre. Heard some good things about the reboot though no Xbox here so I haven't played it. But I'd love a KI rep in Smash and I think it's a must-have down the line.

I will say though, I find Fulgore kinda boring. Black Orchid would be much more interesting to me as the rep. I'd be fine with him though, he does have a claim to the mascot title.

Noms: Sukapon
EMMI prediction: unless there's a major backlash to the promotability of Dread I think it'll get quite high. 12.83%
Off the Hook prediction: 8.6%
 
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Mr. Stevenson

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 5, 2018
Messages
735
Fulgore

Chance: 5%

While he does come from a series that’s full of history with the big N, you could say that about other Rare character from the Nintendo-Rare partnership era, some of which are more popular than him. But I guess KI was kind of a strong contribution to the partnership between the two companies so there’s that. Plus Fulgore is the poster boy of the series so he’s the definitely the most logical choice, but then again I guess you could say the same about Springman and Heihachi, although if I’m not mistaken those two had reasons for not being chosen (Springman already being assist and Heihachi being hard to translate to Smash) so I don’t see anything stopping Fulgore on that matter.
We also already have Steve in FP2 which drastically lowers the chances of all Rare and Microsoft characters alike, and even tho it’s questionable, Fulgore seems to completely lack support and demand from fans (always pissed me off how BK got an excessive amount of demand while the other Rare characters get nothing).

Want: 80%
He’d be much higher if not for Conker. He’s probably on my top 10 list tho. While I’m not too fond of the Killer Instinct games myself I have no doubt that Fulgore is another Rare icon who’s long overdue for Smash. His design is something I really love about the character too, his badass armor, his intimidating red eyes, his fearsome blades, his quirky “ponytail”... He’d certainly be such a unique addition, appearance wise. It’s really no wonder why he’s the mascot of his home series, definitely the best option for a KI rep in my book.
Moveset potential is another thing this tough guy certainly doesn’t lack. His claws are one thing, the variety of weapons and gadgets he has under his armor are another, and boy are they deadly. Pretty sure Fulgore would be one of the most violent characters alongside Ridley, which I guess fits him. I do believe they’d have no problem making his moves fitting for the cartoony nature of Smash tho. I’m not sure if he’d be a heavyweight character (a la Ganondorf) or not but if he would I’d be fine with that, seems like Smash could use some more of those type of fighters anyway.

For his reveal trailer I’d put in a fighting game character like Ryu or Min Min and Diddy Kong, not just because of how they’re both Rareware creations but also due to the existence of this render:
1632015528728.jpeg
 
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Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
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Messages
4,436
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Day over.

Rate E.M.M.I. (Metroid) & Off The Hook (Splatoon).

Predict Boss: Ender Dragon (Minecraft) & Mii Costume: Alex Kidd (Alex Kidd)

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Since Dread isn't out yet I'm just gonna post the reveal trailer in place of the music post. As for Splatoon, we recently had a Splatoon themed day with DJ Octavio so I'm just gonna post a single video with all of the Off The Hook tracks.

 

Cutie Gwen

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Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
When a mommy GLADOS and a daddy Quadraxis love each other very much....

Chance: 10% Oh wow, a Nintendo character that fits their MO! First things first, timing! There's been a lot of confusion around Sakurai's statements for timing as a lot of people are idiots, why was Rex scrapped for bad timing back in the basegame yet Byleth wasn't? The answer is simple, DLC doesn't take 3 years to make and Sakurai has stated how he didn't really like what happened with Roy, a character he added in Smash quite a while before his game came out with some rewrites, making Smash Roy and FE Roy seemingly being different characters entirely. DLC simply does not have this issue so despite COVID likely having impacted Dread's development and delaying it a few months, I think Dread content may be on the table, after all, Nintendo's gone mad with marketing with Dread having multiple trailers, commercials for when watching TV and now even youtube ads, which they did for Animal Crossing and Sword and Shield, they really want Dread to succeed and also made an amiibo for EMMI who I guarantee will become one of the most iconic enemies in the series after Dread comes out. However, there's an elephant in the room we need to address here. Or rather, a bird. While marketing has focused more on the EMMI, the mysterious Chozo general shown in Dread can easily be playable instead, there's also the argument how despite the marketing, Metroid typically isn't a heavy hitting franchise so different games may be prioritized.

Want: 20% This was a very tough one as Dread is easily gonna be my GOTY and the EMMI are ****ing sick but I genuinely do not believe this would be handled well cause like, the EMMI being nearly unstoppable in the context of a fighting game straight up wouldn't happen and justifiably so, but what I personally love about the EMMI isn't their threat factor, but their uncanny movements, the way they freakishly twist and turn when chasing you and climbing walls creeps me the **** out and I really doubt Smash can do this well with a fighter. Also uhhhh. There's a Chozo. That's a lot more interesting and gives the option for a massive Dread stage where EMMI patrol the stage and chase players down if they detect them which allows EMMI to have the unnatural movements that stand out.

When you get into trouble and get off scotfree lmao bottom text

Chance: 15% Splatoon is still the massive success it was, being the strongest new IP Nintendo's had in what, nearly 2 decades maybe? These two are also pretty damn popular in their own right which has the stars seemingly align, especially if they return in 3.

Want: 5% I'm sorry but I just really do not like Splatoon. Though Marina being a woman of colour and Pearl having a more 'ugly' appearance do have some nice contrast to most characters in the game so I'm not giving a flat zero
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
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winnipeg
E.M.M.I
Chance: 0%. Due to E.M.M.I being revealed when the second fighter’s pass is almost completed and given the second Fighter’s pass was chose not long before, I do not see E.M.M.I being playable in this game at all. A spirit Battle to promote Metroid Dread seems more likely.
Want: 75%. Which is a shame since E.M.M.I would be fun to play as, and I can see Dark Samus and Ridley have a 3 for all with E.M.M.I. Overall, E.M.M.I would make a great Smash Bros rep.

Off the Hook
Chance: 10%. With Splatoon 3 coming soon, Pearl and Marina would appear likely, also since the Squid Sisters are assists, this appears to give them an advantage. But if one slot left, Their chance is quite low.
Want: 75%. They would be fun to play as, and I can see them in a fight against Inklings and Jigglypuff in a free for all. Overall, Off the Hook would make great but unexpected smash bros fighters.
Prediction: Boss: Ender Dragon (0%) and Mii Costume: Alex Kid (5%)
Noms: 5 for Lugia
 

WeirdChillFever

Smash Hero
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Messages
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MC Princess and DJ Hyperfresh
Chance: 20%

I like how their day was so close to Magolor’s, because to me, they have the same win condition. A perceived frontrunner that has long prevented other challengers from the series to make it into Smash discourse for some reason isn’t chosen, while the series is still due a character for some reason. In this case, Off the Hook could prove to be a valid alternative to the Octoling.

First, let’s assess how a Splatoon character fits multiple of the most often discussed and supported reasons for a first party character to get in. Not only is Splatoon 2 a massively succesful Switch game, in the same vein as ARMS and Xenoblade 2 were, Splatoon 3 is Nintendo’s cash cow next year. In the meantime, the popular Octo Expansion largely missed the boat to be in Smash Ultimate as well, providing even more incentive to backtrack to the million-selling series only represented by Inkling, whose appearance is only based on Splatoon 1. That’s two-and-a-half games worth of advertisement to add, making Splatoon 2 a prime candidate for a newcomer, with the added benefit that a Splatoon newcomer can properly kickstart the no-doubt massive marketing campaign for the third installment.

You see, Splatoon content in Smash Bros. is in the awkward transition period betweem Splatoon 1 and Splatoon 2. None of the Inkling’s alts or attacks refer to Splatoon 2 exclusive content, and while the Moray Towers stage includes a cameo of the newly-born Judd Jr., the stage itself was present in Splatoon 1 as well. Other content is largely relegated to Spirits, like Xenoblade 2’s was. The Mii Costumes added of Callie & Marie can not only be explained by Heihachi and Kazuya’s situation or the fact that Assist Trophy status seems like a surefire way to get Mii’d in DLC, it’s also likely that the final wave of Mii Costumes will be another round of either fan-favorites or will contain a rag-tag bunch of costumes from another company, like Byleth’s or Pyra & Mythra’s waves had.

The Octo Expansion is also fully exempt from having content, making for an excellent Spirit Board. Not that it entirely matters when we’ve had the Spirit Board of the Aegis include recycled content, but it’s worth mentioning.

The content Splatoon has might be more than Xenoblade or ARMS, but Splatoon is a flagship franchise, with the additional benefit of being one of the better choices for the Corrin-like shill pick from an upcoming game. There’s more layers to this than being a simple agent of the second chance theory, which even then I don’t subscribe to as much, as much as ARMS and Xenoblade were big games on Nintendo’s Switch library that could have their protagonists be represented properly. Inkling might already be in, but Off the Hook isn’t just the next big thing, but new age icons in their own right like the Aegis was.

Then there’s the cephalopod in the room: Octolings are widely considered to be more popular and certainly have worked their way up the latter. However, what plagues them is that they make canonically excellent semi-clones or Echo Fighter. While a unique set is possible for them, their role in the Splatoon saga is to be similar to Inklings. Their silhouette, and Sakurai’s stance on them, would make it awkward for them to be a fully unique character, and it’s an apprehension Sakurai possibly shares. Thing is, I’m not here to discredit Octoling, all we need for Off the Hook to have a chance is this reasonable doubt that Sakurai does not want to end the pass on a character that is functionally and visually more akin to a semi-clone, and might go for a more interesting pick. We’ve seen this scenario before with Chrom and Robin. While Chrom can canonically wield lances, it made most sense for him to be a swordsman inbetween Marth and Ike and Sakurai went for the more intrinsically unique protagonist. Again, I’m not advocating this is the only scenario possible when it comes to Octoling, I’m just introducing a doubt reasonable enough to discuss other choices from the Splatoon series.

In my opinion, this choice would undoubtedly be Off the Hook. They are the idol duo of Splatoon 2 and the newscasters of the game, which means every time you boot up the game, they’re there to give you the latest updates on stages, modes and more. In the otherwise possibly exclusively multi-player 4v4 rounds of Inklings and Octolimgs the player encounters, Pearl & Marina are a staple of the Splatoon experience. This experience doesn’t just stop at the news: They’re also present as guides in the Octo Expansion, much like the Squid Sisters guided thr player through Octo Valley. Most importantly, they are the stars of the various Splatfests held throughout the game’s lifespan.

Splatfests are the biggest events in Splatoon, no questions asked, amd Off the Hook is at the center of them. They take over Inkopolis Square for a performance, they choose a team each and take over the in-game music. Splatfests are fully their turf, maybe even moreso than it is the Inkling‘s or Octolings’.

The final Splatfest, Chaos vs Order, received a load of marketing and Splatfests received the honor of being part of the Super Mario 35th anniversary. Both of these events happened long after the release of Splatoon 2 and even after the official final Splatfests, reruns of old Splatfests were held and thus the game was supported long after official non-balance updates stopped. This again to support the notion that Splatoon is one of Nintendo’s biggest franchises, amd one of the few games Nintendo dips their toes in when it comes to the competitive scene.

This presence in the game has translated to multiple other showcases of popularity: They have their own amiibo and even their own live performances in the real world as holograms. This popularity ensures that they are highly likely to return for at least a cameo in Splatoon 3.

Splatoon 3 itself, however, is too late out to properly get a representative as it will by definition release later than the final character. For this reason, I don’t see a new idol group getting in over Off the Hook. I understand Splatoon idols are mostly tied to the game they are from, but luckily Pearl & Marina have the fanbase on their side: While other characters might be cut and then forgotten, or kept and then forgotten, Off the Hook has made an impact on the fanbase itself which gives them much more staying power than even someone who reprises their role as side character in the third game.

This sort of staying power is also why I don’t believe Off the Hook has zero meaningful competition outside of Octoling. Splatoon is a multiplayer experience first and foremost, so the single player experiences usually do not make the biggest mark on the game or on the fanbase as a whole. The chance Cap’n Cuttlefish or DJ Octavio would be picked is low because of it: Players can go through the typical Splatoon experience and spend an astronomically small amount of time engaged with the single player story, and the single player experience is a side dish at best. Thus, the impact made on the franchise by Off the Hook is leagues above that of someone like DJ Octavio, despite the more conventional future-proofing he has. What’s even sadder is that Off the Hook will probably play a similar side role in Splatoon 3’s story, rendering any competition null-and-void. DJ Octavio also didn’t appear in any shape or form in the Octo Expansion, which renders his role in a second chances theory to be null as well.

Look, this isn’t me hating. I’d love DJ Octavio to bring on some of the true weaponry that Inklings are missing out on, and I might be the biggest fan of Craig Cuttlefish on this site here but the fact is that multiplayer and Splatfests rule the roost when it comes to the Splatoon experience and the single player modes are training wheels at best.

Then, I’d like to discuss playstyle. Some are, rightly so, concerned that Off the Hook would have a so-called duo playstyle, which has raised some issues before when it came to Rex and Pyra. Luckily, I believe their playstyle would be more akin to Duck Hunt, or Rosalina and Luma, than Ice Climbers and it’s all thanks to the stature of Pearl. This is partly why I throw my chips on the table for them rather than Squid Sisters, whose statures would work awkwardly in any way other than a playstyle similar to Ice Climbers.

Pearl however, presents the opportunity of being more of a direct weapon herself than a self-acting agent. Her weapon of choice, the dualies, are mostly made for rolling around, giving credence to the idea of a set that treats her more like a disjointed weapon that rolls around in pre-set paths, where she cannot be knocked back independently from Marina. This sort of duo fighter, a mix between Duck Hunt and Rosalina and Luma, wouldn’t require any sort of AI programming, which is what tripped up the Ice Climbers. What’s more, Dualies and Brellas (Marina’s implied weapon of choice) are the two star additions to Splatoon 2’s weapon catalogue, meaning their inclusion would bring along a much needed update to the armory of Splatoon weapons in Smash.

Overall, Splatoon is huge, and aside from the Octolings, no one comes close to having tne star quality in-game and outside of the game itself as Off the Hook has.


Want: 100%
I really like Splatoon. I also really like being right.

Abstain on Emmenthaler

Noms go to Dynasty Warriors character
 
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fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
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Messages
21,125
Location
Scotland
N.M.E. wait wrong one

chances: 0% i think dread is to late for the pass. ive never been convinced of the idea of shill picks, mostly cause im more convinced of FE bias, but even if i was id think it was too late. plus it would also depend on whether or not sakurai was allowed behind the scenes of this game, botw and odyssey were a yes ARMS and XC2 were a no. there doesnt seem to be much of a pattern though wed have to know more. even though i could believe nintendo would suggest someone from dread and though they are a major selling point of the game, i just dont see sakurai agreeing to it.

want: 75% they so cool. and their movements look great itd be great to see them translated into smash. now this score may change when i get dread but for now its this. although lets face it, by the time we get to smash 6 we'll have moved on and the best we can hope for is a stage where their a hazard that makes the stage unplayable, much like ridley was in 4.

i got cooked

chances: 0% i dont see us getting another dual character in the pass. while i can believe nintendo would suggest another splatoon character theres no guarantee itd be them. they are pretty major faces in 2 and their counter parts are stuck as assist trophies but thats not as much as it might seem. after all how many major faces get passed over? so they got plenty of problems just for being the next splatoon character let alone my doubts about us getting another transforming or ice climbers esc character.

want: 50% i do like them. however ive been on the internet enough to have had them ruined for me by other fans. but id welcome more splatoon content and a another character.

noms go to legends trainer
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
E.M.M.I

Chance: 20% -
Nintendo's been aggressively marketing Dread (surprising, given the franchise isn't very popular in Japan), and the last slot is almost poised for a promotional pick unless we end up with a Game Awards reveal (we did dodge the September Direct after all). We could also get an October Direct that could reveal E.M.M.I, since that would be after Dread's release and thus give players a chance to experience it beforehand. Furthermore, Nintendo would be more than likely making the decision to add it, so any opinions Sakurai may have (such as all of the love he gave the franchise in the base game from the promotion of Dark Samus to the much-deserved Ridley, Sakurai, if he were choosing, could say that Metroid has enough for now) wouldn't be a factor. Gwen mentioned the prominence of a Chozo in Dread's trailers, but I have little knowledge of the franchise so I can't properly rate its' significance for competition in comparison to the robot. And is Stylux gonna be much of a factor when he likely isn't in the game and Prime 4 is still god-knows-how-many years away? Granted, just because it's a promotional pick doesn't automatically make it happen, but I'd still keep an eye out.

Want: 20% - Now don't get me wrong, I love E.M.M.I's design, and no doubt it will be super cool in Dread itself! But those who know me know that I really dislike shill picks. This is E.M.M.I's debut, so no doubt Nintendo would be promoting it as a "get it while it's hot!" deal. Metroid definitely deserves lots of love to make up for four games of being alone, but if we're going to add another Metroid rep I'd go for Stylux. He has legacy and much more fan demand, and while E.M.M.I no doubt has a good future ahead, I want to see it solidified as a series staple first. We also don't really have much in the way of robotic characters, so this would be a cool plus, especially with E.M.M.I's unique mode of movement!


Off the Hook

Chance: 1% -
Splatoon has definitely built up a popular reputation for itself over its' 6-year run. Off the Hook has also garnered a fanbase of its's own, especially after Octo Expansion (even if they do quarrel with the Squid Sisters fans sometimes), so no doubt some demand is there. Still, even with that I have a hard time seeing them get chosen. First, competition within their own franchise. They have to contend with both the Octolings and DJ Octavio. Plus the more popular Squid Sisters got costumed and Assist Trophied. And second is topicality. The two I mentioned are now Splatoon staples, and will (or most likely will) appear in the next game. If we're going to get a Splatoon promotional pick, it would no doubt be a character who plays a bigger role in the next game. I'm sure Off the Hook will do something in 3, just like the Squid Sisters in 2, but why choose them to promote 3 when they're so heavily tied to 2? Why not just use the token idol duo for the upcoming game instead? If Octo Expansion were coming out soon instead, or if Off the Hook had Bandana Dee levels of demand, then I'd see a strong argument. But I really don't see why they'd be picked when their last bit of content was three years ago and a new game is around the corner with new characters and lasting staples to promote instead. Some cite that Splatoon 2/Octo Expansion "missed the boat" and will end up in via Second Chance Theory, but how true is that? ARMS was an entire FRANCHISE that basically missed the boat, and Xenoblade 2 was an entire WORLD (along with Sakurai loving the game). Splatoon 2 doesn't have this. A lot of the Splatoon 1 content in Smash was also present in Splatoon 2, it's the same world and has most of the same characters (to the point that a bunch of friends of mine complained when the game came out). Would Splatoon 2 content be nice? Yes, but is there any real urgency to get more content for it? It isn't like Sephiroth, where Final Fantasy had next to no content. Splatoon's in and has plenty of stuff, Sakurai may see that as enough.

There's also the final matter of them being a dual character. Remember that this kept us from getting Rex, and while it's a possibility that they could be a Pyra/Mythra esque swap character, they aren't the same entity like the aforementioned duo is. They're separate characters and it'd be odd to have them individually when they often act together. Plus their models are definitely much higher-fidelity than the Ice Climbers. I'll also cite the Mii Costumes. "But Drifloon, Kazuya proved that that isn't a problem!" Well, for Kazuya, we got the Mii costume early likely so that Sakurai could celebrate the franchise's anniversary with a pic of the day, along with said franchise being created by a man well-known for misdirection AND said man works on Smash Ultimate. Meanwhile, let's look at Nintendo's first party DLC. Byleth came with no FE costumes and Pyra/Mythra came with no Xenoblade costumes (and the duo weren't even considered yet when Rex was chosen as a costume), and Min Min got an ARMS costume in the form of Ninjara. This is more conjecture, but Nintendo doesn't seem like the type to split their costumes in the way third parties would. They love their marketing tie-ins! So if we were really getting a Splatoon rep, I think that we still would've gotten the Splatoon costumes (Callie and Marie) with said rep. Still, leaving it open since it is still a possibility! But I still expect them to be stuck on that hook for quite a long time.

Want: 0% - I can say with confidence that I do not want these two. I already went on a Splatoon rant last time so I'll keep it brief. These two are tied with so much of the baggage I dislike about the franchise and its' fanbase, and I also haven't played Octo Expansion so I don't have any attachment to them through that. It;s popular, but does it really need the red carpet treatment right now? While focusing on their singing aspects could be cool, they'd still have to share a lot with the Inklings given the way they fight. Furthermore, unless it's DJ Octavio, I really don't want to see another Splatoon rep right now, aside from Octo Epxpansion content it's already super well-represented as it is for its' debut game.

And I know I sound like a hypocrite as someone who really wants to get Louie into the game, but Pikmin's gone 14 years without a new rep when Splatoon's only gone 3.


Nominations:
Captain Charlie x35 (did I use my extra noms yet?)

Predictions:
Boss: Ender Dragon - 0% - We got our big batch of Minecraft content already, along with Sephiroth's boss-themed classic mode. I don't see anyone considering this as a possibility.
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd - 1.72% - Probably not unless we get a SEGA character as our last slot. He was SEGA's mascot before Sonic, but he's still a deep cut, so I don't expect much confidence in him.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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He has legacy and much more fan demand
I mean, Sylux's legacy is literally nothing but "he might be important in the future!" with their fan demand being primarily because Ridley wasn't seen as a viable option, see how nobody asks for Sylux anymore. Hell, considering how people reacted to the EMMI in Dread's trailers I'd argue there are more people who like EMMI than people who played Hunters as that game failed to crack half a million.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
I mean, Sylux's legacy is literally nothing but "he might be important in the future!" with their fan demand being primarily because Ridley wasn't seen as a viable option, see how nobody asks for Sylux anymore. Hell, considering how people reacted to the EMMI in Dread's trailers I'd argue there are more people who like EMMI than people who played Hunters as that game failed to crack half a million.
Again, I don't know much about the franchise so I'm just going by secondhand accounts xD I just meant that I'd choose a more seasoned character over one that's not a year old yet. Now don't get me wrong, E.M.M.I. has tons of potential! But I wanna see how the character ages/impacts the series before seeing them get into Smash.
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
E.M.M.I stands for: Enormous Madlad Machine of Imposement

Chance: 15%

Assuming that Nintendo was aware that they were making Metroid Dread back in 2019, this is certainly possible. They have been pushing Dread real hard and it's being set up to be one of the most successful installments in the series. There are just two things to keep in mind though. One, this game feels prime (pun intended) to get a spirit event. And two, there is the possibility that they chose a different Metroid rep instead like Sylux since he is more of an established character, although there is the caveat that Prime 4 restarted development in early 2019 so they could have skipped over him knowing that Prime 4 would not make it into the shill timeframe for FP2. So overall E.M.M.I is in a good position, again assuming that development started in 2019 because if not, well this score would tank.

Want: 25%

E.M.M.I looks really cool and I'm always up for more enemies being playable. But the thing is I never really got into Metroid so he wouldn't do a lot for me and I feel Metroid has enough representation for the time being.

_________________________

As my mom would say, this is off the chain hook

Chance: 5%

Honestly I'm not as confident in these two as most people are. Sure they are not deconfirmed in any way but I feel like they wouldn't be top priority. Call it a hunch but with the Squid Sisters getting both an assist trophy and Mii costumes and Off the Hook having neither, I feel like they are lower on the totem pole. Sure you could use that to argue that they have a bigger hole to fill but I feel like with how popular the Squid Sisters are they would be prioritized. And that's not even bringing the Octolings into the equation.

Want: 1%

Don't care about these two. And again I didn't like Splatoon all that much so if it got another character, I sleep.

Predictions:
Ender Dragon - 0% (This should be the overall score....right?)
Alex Kidd - 1%

Noms: BJ Blazkowicz x10
 

Sari

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E.M.M.I.

Chance: 5%
It's pretty clear at this point that Dread is Nintendo's main game for the holiday season. If we're getting a first party promo pick, E.M.M.I could definitely happen. The main hurdles for E.M.M.I. are possible other Metroid characters that may have a role in Dread (such as the Chozo general), as well as SMT:V being another big Switch-exclusive game that Nintendo may want to promote in Smash instead.

E.M.M.I. is also a weird case since it seems like one of the main features of Dread is how it stalks you everywhere. So if we did get E.M.M.I. as a playable character, it'd most likely come with a Dread stage that has... E.M.M.I. stage hazards? I'm not saying the two things can't happen at once, but it just feels like E.M.M.I. would better serve as a stage hazard while another character represents Dread.

Want: 0%
I haven't been keeping up with Dread (still need to get into the Metroid series) so I decided to watch some trailers of it before this rating. After properly looking at the preview videos, I have to say that E.M.M.I. looks... REALLY cool! Games where you have to avoid undefeatable enemies that pursue you are some of my favorites, so watching E.M.M.I. chase Samus around is making me tempted to preorder a copy of Dread right now. So why the 0% you ask?

The first and most important reason is that I don't think E.M.M.I. could be represented well as a playable character. It seems like the main appeal of E.M.M.I. is how overly powerful and creepy it is as it stalks you throughout the game. So when you have E.M.M.I. shielding, rolling, and running away from you at high %'s, it just seems like most of the appeal is lost. This to me just screams stage hazard on a Metroid Dread themed stage, which if we rated now I'd probably give a 100% want score since it'd be so fun.

I'm also generally not a fan of the whole "let's add a character a few months before or after their game releases" thing. It's one of the many issues I had with Corrin, and despite my love for Three Houses I think a rep from that game would've been better off towards the middle of FP2. Lets give some other unrepped games some time to shine before giving Dread a full blown Challenger Pack.

-----

Off The Hook

Chance: 1%
As I mentioned on DJ Octavio's day, Octolings seem to be the frontrunners for another Splatoon rep. I do think they'd be better off as an echo, but at the same time they could just come equipped with different weapons from Splatoon 2 and call them a unique fighter.

Regarding the Splatoon 2 content we have right now, I don't think it warrants another character to rep it some more. Splatoon 2 alone got 11 music tracks, 2 new Mii Costumes of the box art Inklings, and 7 spirits (11 if you count the characters who originated in the first game but have their art from Splatoon 2). This is all without mentioning that we got Inkling + Splatoon 1 content in the base game, so it's definitely a much different situation than ARMS or Xenoblade 2. I'm not saying the Splatoon 2 content in Smash is perfect, but I just don't see a promo pick for it as a priority for Sakurai/Nintendo when there are a lot of other unrepped Switch games (Ring Fit, Luigi's Mansion 3, Astral Chain, etc.). I think the next time we get a Splatoon rep, it's going to be either Octolings or someone directly representing Splatoon 3. I could perhaps see Octoling happening to bridge the gap between both the Octoling Expansion and Splatoon 3.

There's also the issue of the Squid Sisters who from what I understand are just generally more popular than Off The Hook. Granted I don't see Squid Sisters happening for CP11 since they got costume'd in FP2, however in regards to overall Smash chances I feel like they'd have much more priority. I view the situation as less of "Squid Sisters are out so Off The Hook has a chance" and moreso "Squid Sisters are out, so why would Off The Hook get in instead?"

Perhaps the biggest issue for Off The Hook happening is... how would they work as a single fighter with them being two characters? I've tried looking up movesets for them but all I get are videos of the Hulk for some reason. Would they have a Pyra/Mythra switching mechanic, be an Ice Climbers-like double fighter, or just be a Duck Hunt/Banjo-like fighter? I don't think it's impossible to make them playable, but I just don't see Sakurai going through a ton of loopholes to do so when Octolings are right there.

EDIT: Another important point that others have mentioned is Sakurai's comments about Rex/Pyra during the Pythra presentation. He said that the Switch couldn't handle both of their models fighting at the same time and said that Ice Climbers could only work since their models are super basic. Pearl and Marina's models are much more detailed than that of the Ice Climbers (just look at Marina's tentacle hair) so I think that eliminates the idea of them being an Ice Climber-like character.

Want: 10%
They seem alright so I wouldn't hate their inclusion. Still though, I've never been much of a Splatoon person and Off The Hook getting in before Squid Sisters would probably trigger my OCD.

-----

Ender Dragon Boss chance prediction: 0.10% (aren't bosses pretty much deconfirmed by this point?)
Alex Kidd costume: 3.40%

Nominations:
Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards x20
 
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Golden Icarus

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2013
Messages
1,125
Location
USA
E.M.M.I.
Chance: 10%

Like others have pointed out, E.M.M.I. gives off major shill pick vibes. Dread has been promoted like crazy and they are really hyping E.M.M.I. up, despite just being an enemy. I feel like you don’t usually see other Nintendo villains emphasized in trailers like this. This is probably because E.M.M.I. is central to Dread’s gameplay, but it could also be because they really have a future planned for the robot. Also the fact that there are multiple versions of E.M.M.I., each with their own color, is pretty interesting - it already has palette swaps.

Want: 80%

I suppose I won’t go higher than that. I love Metroid and I am unbelievably hyped for Dread - it’s probably my most anticipated game since Ultimate. The E.M.M.I. just looks so freaking cool and I would love to see its bizarre movement implemented in Smash. However, we still don’t know everything about E.M.M.I. as Dread has yet to release. And while I love Metroid, I’ll admit that four characters is already more than I hoped for. I also would like to see this pass end on a high note, and it would kind of sting for a really cool character like this to be hated due to being a blatant shill pick.

But whatever, Metroid is awesome, E.M.M.I. is awesome, and I cannot wait for Dread. If we got this robot in Smash, alongside more Metroid content, then I will most certainly be an incredibly happy boy.

Noms: Penny (WarioWare) xMax
 
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Laniv

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Emmy Nominated Series

Chance: 14%

My first instinct upon seeing this was to give it a flat zero on the basis of "it's too new". However, the more I think about it, the more I realize that it could possibly stand a chance exactly because it's new. What I'm saying is, it's a perfect example of what could be the coveted "shill pick". Emphasis on could.

Want: 45%

Ehhhhhh... There are other Metroid characters I'd prefer first. An actual playable Metroid*, for one. Mother Brain for another. I'd even be more enthused for Sylux

*I know about Dark Samus. I wanna play as the jellyfish, dangit >:T


Cephalopod Climbers

Chance: 3%

Ooof, it's not a good outlook for these two. Between Octolings possibly outprioritizing them, the unlikelihood of getting another two-in-one character, and the Splatoon content in Ultimate feeling "complete" for the time being, I don't really see them getting in.

Want: 40%

Would they be interesting? Sure. Also we'd get a black character so that's a plus.

Predictions for Ender Dragon boss: 0% Chance, 27% Want
Predictions for Alex Kidd Mii costume: 5% Chance, 35% Want

Nominate Nabbit x 5
 

Cutie Gwen

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Again, I don't know much about the franchise so I'm just going by secondhand accounts xD I just meant that I'd choose a more seasoned character over one that's not a year old yet. Now don't get me wrong, E.M.M.I. has tons of potential! But I wanna see how the character ages/impacts the series before seeing them get into Smash.
I guess that's fair but then again Sylux is the embodiment of a slice of white bread. You can make a killer sandwich with it but as of now, there's only a single slice and nothing else, which fits Sylux to a T
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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Kfad contestants
Chance: 0.8%
Like I said at Octavio's day, it's Octoling or bust when it comes to Splatoon. Npcs just are way less likely in comparison. They're popular characters in Splatoon yes but you don't see much demand for them. How'd this even work really? I can't see Pearl and Marina sharing animations and fighting styles. Would this be a Banjo-Kazooie, Ice climber or Pokemon trainer kind of thing. It would probably be too bothersome. Also the Squid Sisters have already been costumed and I think it would be weird for them if they were given that treatment yet OtH becomes playable.

Want: 45%
I'd think I'd be pleasantly suprised? I do like these characters. Moreso than Octavio definitely. They're way more likely to represent Octo-Expansion which would be pretty exciting, though I wonder if regular Octolings would be better to do that with. At the end of the day, Pearl and Marina still aren't the ideal characters I'd close the pass with.

E.M.M.I
Chance: 1%
I guess some people would see this as the shill pick? I haven't been following much of Dread but I'm not sure if this thing screams character material to me. If anything that Chozo general I've heard about poses as competition to it if anything. Sounds like there'd be more to work with with him over some mindless chase bot. Also we might likely have the character revealed before Dread actually releases so that might be risky with spoilers and stuff. Honestly, Metroid already does pretty well for itself on the roster and I don't see it as one of those series Nintendo would shill. It doesn't give of that vibe. SMT however? Yeah, that gives of the vibe!

Want: Abstaining

Ender Dragon: 0.1%
Alex kidd costume: 1.32%
Gene x15
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
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Sep 22, 2012
Messages
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Don't get cooked

Chance: 1%
Pearl and Marina are two enormously popular characters in Splatoon 2 and Octo Expansion. As the game's idol duo, they're basically the face of Splatoon 2, greeting the player everyday with the stage rotation, running Splatfests, etc. They also show up in Octo Expansion playing a major role in the story and getting their backstories fleshed out. If we take Callie and Marie as precedent, they will probably feature in Splatoon 3's story as well. So I guess they're in a pretty solid position to represent Splatoon.

The problem with them, I think, is the moveset. Sure, canonically, they partake in turf wars and can do everything Inklings can. Thing is, we don't see them do any of it. It seems far-fetched that they'd even be considered because of that. Out of Ultimate's unique newcomers, only 5 aren't playable characters in their source material. Of those 5, 3 (Ridley, K. Rool and Sephiroth*) are boss characters so they have that to pull their gameplay from; one (Pythra) was planned to feature player character Rex as well; that leaves us with only one non-combat NPC added in all of Ultimate: Isabelle. Who I think is a very appropriate comparison. Isabelle is also a character who doesn't see much action in her source game, but who can technically do everything Villager can. She was also wildly popular so, NPC or not, she made sense to include as a fighter. I don't know if Off The Hook have a claim to stardom as strong as she does. Splatoon has a lot of popular characters in Octoling, Callie, Marie, and these two, so it's hard to gauge if there's an Isabelle-like breakout.

Then there's the moveset. It might be my lack of imagination but having these two very distinct characters moving around as one and, like, shooting people, I dunno, sounds really clunky. And not like it would make the moveset that unique anyway.

Want: abstain
Marina and Pearl are top-tier characters so if they could give them a good moveset then I'm in. If they can't then it would just be a total waste.

Executives Met to Mandate Inclusion

Chance: 10%
EMMIs are, apparently, a recurring enemy in the upcoming Metroid Dread. Revealed at E3 alongside the game itself, they quickly amassed tons of popularity for their threatening movement and kickass design. While future trailers have revealed more of the players in the story (that could have a claim to Dread's shill pick), EMMIs stayed a consistent part of the marketing, and are all over the box art, so either they play a big part in the game, or Nintendo correctly foresaw how marketable they would be.

Which brings us to Smash. Many, including myself, are expecting a character with a more promotional bent for FP11. And man, has a game had more promotion than Dread? Be it because Nintendo wants to level up Metroid as a major IP, because they want the investment in Prime 4 to pay off, or just because they have nothing bigger out this year, Dread is everywhere. Nothing would be less surprising than it also getting a Smash slot. And if the face of Dread's marketing is EMMI, makes sense for EMMI to be chosen. The moveset potential is very obviously there, just look at how it freaking moves! It's safe to say that there has never been a fighting game character like EMMI.

Of course, there's the obvious elephant in the room here: Dread isn't out. We might be all wrong about the assumptions that we're making about it. And if expectations are met, FP11 should be revealed before Dread comes out (though the current radio silence is enough to suggest the possibility that the fighter is purposefully being held back for Dread). A lot of things might change our perception in the coming weeks, so this isn't very definitive.

Want: 90%
Is this Dread hype speaking? Yes. Might this age like garbage out in the sun? Possibly. Do I care right now? No. I'm on board the Metroid hype train and if that train is bound to crash right through Smash Ultimate I'm here for it. Give me creepy robo-crawler

Noms Sukapon
Ender Dragon prediction: 1.3%
Alex Miid: 8.4%

*Yes I know Sephiroth is briefly in your party but he's obviously mainly inspired by his boss fights and status as a villain
 

Rie Sonomura

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EMMI

Chance: 4%. Yes, Metroid Dread's been in development hell for a long time and is finally nearing completion, but idk when EMMI's initial design was conceived. If it was after 2019, it may be too late.

Want: 20%. I kinda feel EMMI would be better fit as an Assist Trophy for the next Smash, chasing a target down and OHKOing them just like in Dread. I can't really see it as playable and be true to its canon abilities, as its prime directive is to seek and destroy in one hit. Maybe it's a bit pedantic, idk, I AM very much interested in Dread don't get me wrong, but I think AT would be better for EMMI.

Off the Hook

Chance: 68%. Honestly, I think that like Octoling they're also a sleeper pick. I have this rather crackpot theory that Pass 2 follows a 1-2-1-2 pattern as follows. Three are of a singular character, and two thus far show two characters in the square, like alts or a transformation. It could also include a full on duo character:

Min Min (1) - Steve & Alex (2; Zombie and Enderman are not shown) - Sephiroth (1) - Pyra/Mythra (2) - Kazuya (1) - ?????? (Maybe 2?)

Plus, while it's arbitrary, they do fit Figure Theory assuming Amiibo don't count, as they now have a Figma. Also, remember how we get a Rex mii prior to Pythra and a Heihachi Mii prior to Kazuya, and Spring Man and Ribbon Girl Miis and an AT of the former before Min Min? (Granted the ARMS stuff was base game but still)

we also got Miis of the Squid Sisters, Callie and Marie, in the same wave as the Heihachi Mii. What if we get Pearl and Marina as playable??

nah just kidding.

unless....? (and yes i am also aware the Squid Sisters are an AT in base game, just like Bomberman who also got a Mii)

Want: 90%. If I can't get Octoling, Off the Hook is just as good and will come with Octo Expansion music, which is very much needed. Plus, who doesn't wanna Hyperbomb and Princess Cannon-combo their enemies? and the TRAILER - imagine Pearl BOOOYAAAAHHHHing Galeem and Dharkon like she did the NILS Statue at the end of Octo Expansion, and if they get Final Fest alts too

and, i'd like to point out that Splatoon 2's proper final splatfest was Chaos vs Order. Dharkon represents chaos in WoL and Galeem represents order. Coincidence? I think NOT! (Ok this is strawgrasping on my part BUT STILL)

ps if Project X Zone 3 happens make Pearl and Marina a playable duo as well 🥺
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
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Messages
10,169
Sukapon x195
[Rerate] Gene x165
[Rerate] Agumon x145
Lugia x135
Legends Trainer x135
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
Concept: Dynasty Warriors character x105
Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80

100 - 51

Echo (Olimar) x76
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x50
Nabbit x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Kamek x40
Omori x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Mii Costume: Rayman x30
B.J Blazkowicz x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Mii Costume: Scorpion x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
Kraid x10
King Harkinian x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Agumon defeats Legends Trainer and their Lugia and digivolves to third place. Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards joins the ranks in 10th place, which causes Echo (Olimar) to lose its spot.

Your newcomer of the day is B.J Blazkowicz with 30 noms.
 

Sari

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Sari Sari this gonna be one of those slightly longer days in case of a direct?
That's the plan. I don't want to risk starting a new day only for a Direct announcement to pop out of nowhere. They usually get announced on Tuesday or Wednesday so I was aiming to end this day sometime around Wednesday afternoon.

How would you guys feel about me ending the day (and probably most days going forward) sometime around Tuesday afternoon instead? We could maybe squeeze in another day, though depending on if a Direct announcement happens it might just be a 24 hour one.

EDIT: Just to be clear, the above paragraph was me asking for people's thoughts and not being sarcastic. Though regardless I'm still gonna end this rating tomorrow.
 
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Sari

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It's that time again.

Put down your predictions for tomorrow's Nintendo Direct. You can also right down what you want to see in it if you'd like.

Megadoomer Megadoomer (you can title it September 2021 Nintendo Direct predictions)

Double noms for everyone today (though depending on how tomorrow goes we might not need noms)
 

Rie Sonomura

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9.23.2021 Direct

Predictions:
  • CP11 will not be revealed, but instead (at the end of the direct) they’ll announce the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Final Video Presentation, most likely on October 5, 2021
  • Splatoon 3 news
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 teaser
  • One last pre-release look at Metroid Dread
  • Game Boy, Game Boy Color and Nintendo 64 join the NSO lineup
  • ACNH update
  • Random ports (first party and/or third party)

Wants:
  • Sure they don’t fully reveal the final fighter’s identity BUT they do one last guessing game. “We’re ending things the way we started. The final fighter for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate… is from the Splatoon series!” Possibilities are Squid Sisters, Cap’n Cuttlefish, DJ Octavio, a Salmonid, Octoling (Octo Expansion) and Off the Hook
  • And to go with it, they’re rerunning the Chaos vs Order Splatfest in Splatoon 2. Won’t really change the outcome of 3 though
  • Xenoblade Chronicles X port this December
  • Project X Zone 1 & 2 ports OR PXZ3 being announced (the latter is more likely a TGS announcement though)
  • Persona 5 Royal port
  • We finally get a date for the Genshin Impact port
  • Gunvolt 3 info
  • Codename STEAM Definitive Edition (DE adds several more Amiibo guests: Roy, Chrom, Corrin, Byleth, Shulk, and when their Amiibo comes out, Pyra/Mythra)
  • GameCube NSO. Probably too soon for that though
  • Amiibo guests return for New Horizons, and they add new villagers based off Pearl and Marina from Off the Hook
 
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WeirdChillFever

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9.23.2021 Direct

Wants:
  • Sure they don’t fully reveal the final fighter’s identity BUT they do one last guessing game. “We’re ending things the way we started. The final fighter for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate… is from the Splatoon series!” Possibilities are Squid Sisters, Cap’n Cuttlefish, DJ Octavio, a Salmonid, Octoling (Octo Expansion) and Off the Hook
This is Sheldon erasure
 
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